Analysis of eruptive and seismic sequences to improve the short-and long-term eruption forecasting

Forecasting the time, location, nature, and scale of volcanic eruptions is one of the most urgent aspects of modern applied volcanology. The reliability of probabilistic forecasting procedures is strongly related to the reliability of the input information provided, implying objective criteria for interpreting the historical and monitoring data. For this reason both, detailed analysis of past data and more basic research into the processes of volcanism, are fundamental tasks of a continuous information-gain process; in this way the precursor events of eruptions can be better interpreted in terms of their physical meanings with correlated uncertainties. This should lead to better predictions of the nature of eruptive events. In this work we have studied different problems associated with the long- and short-term eruption forecasting assessment. First, we discuss different approaches for the analysis of the eruptive history of a volcano, most of them generally applied for long-term eruption forecasting purposes; furthermore, we present a model based on the characteristics of a Brownian passage-time process to describe recurrent eruptive activity, and apply it for long-term, time-dependent, eruption forecasting (Chapter 1). Conversely, in an effort to define further monitoring parameters as input data for short-term eruption forecasting in probabilistic models (as for example, the Bayesian Event Tree for eruption forecasting -BET_EF-), we analyze some characteristics of typical seismic activity recorded in active volcanoes; in particular, we use some methodologies that may be applied to analyze long-period (LP) events (Chapter 2) and volcano-tectonic (VT) seismic swarms (Chapter 3); our analysis in general are oriented toward the tracking of phenomena that can provide information about magmatic processes. Finally, we discuss some possible ways to integrate the results presented in Chapters 1 (for long-term EF), 2 and 3 (for short-term EF) in the BET_EF model (Chapter 4).

Provenienza dei sedimenti arenitici nel bacino di Tracia (eo-oligocene, Turchia nord-occidentale e Grecia nord-orientale)

The Thrace Basin is the largest and thickest Tertiary sedimentary basin of the eastern Balkans region and constitutes an important hydrocarbon province. It is located between the Rhodope-Strandja Massif to the north and west, the Marmara Sea and Biga Peninsula to the south, and the Black Sea to the est. It consists of a complex system of depocenters and uplifts with very articulate paleotopography indicated by abrupt lateral facies variations. Its southeastern margin is widely deformed by the Ganos Fault, a segment of the North Anatolian strike-slip fault system . Most of the Thrace Basin fill ranges from the Eocene to the Late Oligocene. Maximum total thickness, including the Neogene-Quaternary succession, reaches 9.000 meters in a few narrow depocenters. This sedimentary succession consists mainly of basin plain turbiditic deposits with a significant volcaniclastic component which evolves upwards to shelf deposits and continental facies, with deltaic bodies prograding towards the basin center in the Oligocene. This work deals with the provenance of Eocene-Oligocene clastic sediments of the southern and western part of Thrace Basin in Turkey and Greece. Sandstone compositional data (78 gross composition analyses and 40 heavy minerals analyses) were used to understand the change in detrital modes which reflects the provenance and geodinamic evolution of the basin. Samples were collected at six localities, which are from west to est: Gökçeada, Gallipoli and South-Ganos (south of Ganos Fault), Alexandroupolis, Korudağ and North-Ganos (north of Ganos Fault). Petrologic (framework composition and heavy-mineral analyses) and stratigraphic-sedimentologic data, (analysis of sedimentologic facies associations along representative stratigraphic sections, paleocurrents) allowed discrimination of six petrofacies; for each petrofacies the sediment dispersal system was delineated. The Thrace Basin fill is made mainly of lithic arkoses and arkosic litharenites with variable amount of low-grade metamorphic lithics (also ophiolitic), neovolcanic lithics, and carbonate grains (mainly extrabasinal). Picotite is the most widespread heavy mineral in all petrofacies. Petrological data on analyzed successions show a complex sediment dispersal pattern and evolution of the basin, indicating one principal detrital input from a source area located to the south, along both the İzmir-Ankara and Intra-Pontide suture lines, and a possible secondary source area, represented by the Rhodope Massif to the west. A significant portion of the Thrace Basin sediments in the study area were derived from ophiolitic source rocks and from their oceanic cover, whereas epimetamorphic detrital components came from a low-grade crystalline basement. An important penecontemporaneous volcanic component is widespread in late Eocene-Oligocene times, indicating widespread post-collisional (collapse?) volcanism following the closure of the Vardar ocean. Large-scale sediment mass wasting from south to north along the southern margin of the Thrace Basin is indicated (i) in late Eocene time by large olistoliths of ophiolites and penecontemporaneous carbonates, and (ii) in the mid-Oligocene by large volcaniclastic olistoliths. The late Oligocene paleogeographic scenario was characterized by large deltaic bodies prograding northward (Osmancik Formation). This clearly indicates that the southern margin of the basin acted as a major sediment source area throughout its Eocene-Oligocene history. Another major sediment source area is represented by the Rhodope Massif, in particolar the Circum-Rhodopic belt, especially for plutonic and metamorphic rocks. Considering preexisting data on the petrologic composition of Thrace Basin, silicilastic sediments in Greece and Bulgaria (Caracciolo, 2009), a Rhodopian provenance could be considered mostly for areas of the Thrace Basin outside our study area, particularly in the northern-central portions of the basin. In summary, the most important source area for the sediment of Thrace Basin in the study area was represented by the exhumed subduction-accretion complex along the southern margin of the basin (Biga Peninsula and western-central Marmara Sea region). Most measured paleocurrent indicators show an eastward paleoflow but this is most likely the result of gravity flow deflection. This is possible considered a strong control due to the east-west-trending synsedimentary transcurrent faults which cuts the Thrace Basin, generating a series of depocenters and uplifts which deeply influenced sediment dispersal and the areal distribution of paleoenvironments. The Thrace Basin was long interpreted as a forearc basin between a magmatic arc to the north and a subduction-accretion complex to the south, developed in a context of northward subduction. This interpretation was challenged by more recent data emphasizing the lack of a coeval magmatic arc in the north and the interpretation of the chaotic deposit which outcrop south of Ganos Fault as olistoliths and large submarine slumps, derived from the erosion and sedimentary reworking of an older mélange unit located to the south (not as tectonic mélange formed in an accretionary prism). The present study corroborates instead the hypothesis of a post-collisional origin of the Thrace Basin, due to a phase of orogenic collapse, which generated a series of mid-Eocene depocenters all along the İzmir-Ankara suture (following closure of the Vardar-İzmir-Ankara ocean and the ensuing collision); then the slab roll-back of the remnant Pindos ocean played an important role in enhancing subsidence and creating additional accommodation space for sediment deposition.

Thermochronologic and geodynamic evolution of the Pontides: Sakarya terrane (Karakaya Complex) and Istanbul terrane, Turkey.

An integrated array of analytical methods -including clay mineralogy, vitrinite reflectance, Raman spectroscopy on carbonaceous material, and apatite fission-track analysis- was employed to constrain the thermal and thermochronological evolution of selected portions of the Pontides of northern Turkey. (1) A multimethod investigation was applied for the first time to characterise the thermal history of the Karakaya Complex, a Permo-Triassic subduction-accretion complex cropping out throughout the Sakarya Zone. The results indicate two different thermal regimes: the Lower Karakaya Complex (Nilüfer Unit) -mostly made of metabasite and marble- suffered peak temperatures of 300-500°C (greenschist facies); the Upper Karakaya Complex (Hodul and the Orhanlar Units) –mostly made of greywacke and arkose- yielded heterogeneous peak temperatures (125-376°C), possibly the result of different degree of involvement of the units in the complex dynamic processes of the accretionary wedge. Contrary to common belief, the results of this study indicate that the entire Karakaya Complex suffered metamorphic conditions. Moreover, a good degree of correlation among the results of these methods demonstrate that Raman spectroscopy on carbonaceous material can be applied successfully to temperature ranges of 200-330°C, thus extending the application of this method from higher grade metamorphic contexts to lower grade metamorphic conditions. (2) Apatite fission-track analysis was applied to the Sakarya and the İstanbul Zones in order to constrain the exhumation history and timing of amalgamation of these two exotic terranes. AFT ages from the İstanbul and Sakarya terranes recorded three distinct episodes of exhumation related to the complex tectonic evolution of the Pontides. (i) Paleocene - early Eocene ages (62.3-50.3 Ma) reflect the closure of the İzmir-Ankara ocean and the ensuing collision between the Sakarya terrane and the Anatolide-Tauride Block. (ii) Late Eocene - earliest Oligocene (43.5-32.3 Ma) ages reflect renewed tectonic activity along the İzmir-Ankara. (iii) Late Oligocene- Early Miocene ages reflect the onset and development of the northern Aegean extension. The consistency of AFT ages, both north and south of the tectonic contact between the İstanbul and Sakarya terranes, suggest that such terranes were amalgamated in pre-Cenozoic times. (3) Fission-track analysis was also applied to rock samples from the Marmara region, in an attempt to constrain the inception and development of the North Anatolian Fault system in the region. The results agree with those from the central Pontides. The youngest AFT ages (Late Oligocene - early Miocene) were recorded in the western portion of the Marmara Sea region and reflect the onset and development of northern Aegean extension. Fission-track data from the eastern Marmara Sea region indicate rapid Early Eocene exhumation induced by the development of the İzmir-Ankara orogenic wedge. Thermochronological data along the trace of the Ganos Fault –a segment of the North Anatolian Fault system- indicate the presence of a tectonic discontinuity active by Late Oligocene time, i.e. well before the arrival of the North Anatolian Fault system in the area. The integration of thermochronologic data with preexisting structural data point to the existence of a system of major E-W-trending structural discontinuities active at least from the Late Oligocene. In the Early Pliocene, inception of the present-day North Anatolian Fault system in the Marmara region occurred by reactivation of these older tectonic structures. 


Geological and Structural evolution of the Eurasia Africa plate boundary in the Gulf of Cadiz Central Eastern Atlantic Sea.

Iberia Africa plate boundary, cross, roughly W-E, connecting the eastern Atlantic Ocean from Azores triple junction to the Continental margin of Morocco. Relative movement between the two plate change along the boundary, from transtensive near the Azores archipelago, through trascurrent movement in the middle at the Gloria Fracture Zone, to transpressive in the Gulf of Cadiz area. This study presents the results of geophysical and geological analysis on the plate boundary area offshore Gibraltar. The main topic is to clarify the geodynamic evolution of this area from Oligocene to Quaternary. Recent studies have shown that the new plate boundary is represented by a 600 km long set of aligned, dextral trascurrent faults (the SWIM lineaments) connecting the Gloria fault to the Riff orogene. The western termination of these lineaments crosscuts the Gibraltar accretionary prism and seems to reach the Moroccan continental shelf. In the past two years newly acquired bathymetric data collected in the Moroccan offshore permit to enlighten the present position of the eastern portion of the plate boundary, previously thought to be a diffuse plate boundary. The plate boundary evolution, from the onset of compression in the Oligocene to the Late Pliocene activation of trascurrent structures, is not yet well constrained. The review of available seismics lines, gravity and bathymetric data, together with the analysis of new acquired bathymetric and high resolution seismic data offshore Morocco, allows to understand how the deformation acted at lithospheric scale under the compressive regime. Lithospheric folding in the area is suggested, and a new conceptual model is proposed for the propagation of the deformation acting in the brittle crust during this process. Our results show that lithospheric folding, both in oceanic and thinned continental crust, produced large wavelength synclines bounded by short wavelength, top thrust, anticlines. Two of these anticlines are located in the Gulf of Cadiz, and are represented by the Gorringe Ridge and Coral Patch seamounts. Lithospheric folding probably interacted with the Monchique – Madeira hotspot during the 72 Ma to Recent, NNE – SSW transit. Plume related volcanism is for the first time described on top of the Coral Patch seamount, where nine volcanoes are found by means of bathymetric data. 40Ar-39Ar age of 31.4±1.98 Ma are measured from one rock sample of one of these volcanoes. Analysis on biogenic samples show how the Coral Patch act as a starved offshore seamount since the Chattian. We proposed that compression stress formed lithospheric scale structures playing as a reserved lane for the upwelling of mantle material during the hotspot transit. The interaction between lithospheric folding and the hotspot emplacement can be also responsible for the irregularly spacing, and anomalous alignments, of individual islands and seamounts belonging to the Monchique - Madeira hotspot.

Geochronology, geochemistry and isotopic compositions of the volcanic rocks from oceanic (Hawaii) and continental (Eifel) intra-plate environments

The Eifel volcanism is part of the Central European Volcanic Province (CEVP) and is located in the Rhenish Massif, close to the Rhine and Leine Grabens. The Quaternary Eifel volcanism appears to be related to a mantle plume activity. However, the causes of the Tertiary Hocheifel volcanism remain debated. We present geochronological, geochemical and isotope data to assess the geotectonic settings of the Tertiary Eifel volcanism. Based on 40Ar/39Ar dating, we were able to identify two periods in the Hocheifel activity: from 43.6 to 39.0 Ma and from 37.5 to 35.0 Ma. We also show that the pre-rifting volcanism in the northernmost Upper Rhine Graben (59 to 47 Ma) closely precede the Hocheifel volcanic activity. In addition, the volcanism propagates from south to north within the older phase of the Hocheifel activity. At the time of Hocheifel volcanism, the tectonic activity in the Hocheifel was controlled by stress field conditions identical to those of the Upper Rhine Graben. Therefore, magma generation in the Hocheifel appears to be caused by decompression due to Middle to Late Eocene extension. Our geochemical data indicate that the Hocheifel magmas were produced by partial melting of a garnet peridotite at 75-90 km depth. We also show that crustal contamination is minor although the magmas erupted through a relatively thick continental lithosphere. Sr, Nd and Pb isotopic compositions suggest that the source of the Hocheifel magmas is a mixing between depleted FOZO or HIMU-like material and enriched EM2-like material. The Tertiary Hocheifel and the Quaternary Eifel lavas appear to have a common enriched end-member. However, the other sources are likely to be distinct. In addition, the Hocheifel lavas share a depleted component with the other Tertiary CEVP lavas. Although the Tertiary Hocheifel and the Quaternary Eifel lavas appear to originate from different sources, the potential involvement of a FOZO-like component would indicate the contribution of deep mantle material. Thus, on the basis of the geochemical and isotope data, we cannot rule out the involvement of plume-type material in the Hocheifel magmas. The Ko’olau Scientific Drilling Project (KSDP) has been initiated in order to evaluate the long-term evolution of Ko’olau volcano and obtain information about the Hawaiian mantle plume. High precision Pb triple spike data, as well as Sr and Nd isotope data on KSDP lavas and Honolulu Volcanics (HVS) reveal compositional source variations during Ko’olau growth. Pb isotopic compositions indicate that, at least, three Pb end-members are present in Ko’olau lavas. Changes in the contributions of each component are recorded in the Pb, Sr and Nd isotopes stratigraphy. The radiogenic component is present, at variable proportion, in all three stages of Ko’olau growth. It shows affinities with the least radiogenic “Kea-lo8” lavas present in Mauna Kea. The first unradiogenic component was present in the main-shield stage of Ko’olau growth but its contribution decreased with time. It has EM1 type characteristics and corresponds to the “Ko’olau” component of Hawaiian mantle plume. The second unradiogenic end-member, so far only sampled by Honololu lavas, has isotopic characteristics similar to those of a depleted mantle. However, they are different from those of the recent Pacific lithosphere (EPR MORB) indicating that the HVS are not derived from MORB-related source. We suggest, instead, that the HVS result from melting of a plume material. Thus the evolution of a single Hawaiian volcano records the geochemical and isotopic changes within the Hawaiian plume.

Isotope geochemical and geochronologic studies of basement units in the Central Western Carpathians (Slovakia)

In dieser Arbeit werden geochronologische und isotopen-geochemische Daten zur Entwicklung der Zentralen Westlichen Karpathen präsentiert. Die Karpathen bilden die östliche Fortsetzung der Alpen und können in drei Alpine Grundgebirgsdecken unterteilt werden, von denen zwei, die Veporische und die Gemerische, bearbeitet wurden. In der Veporischen Einheit wurden polymetamorphe Grundgebirgseinheiten untersucht, um deren genaue Altersstellung zu definieren und sie isotopengeochemisch zu klassifizieren. Dagegen wurde in der der Gemerischen Einheit, welche die Veporische Einheit überlagert, ein spezialisierter S-Typ Granit im Detail untersucht, um die petrogenetischen Prozesse, die zur magmatischen Entwicklung dieses Granits geführt haben, zu identifizieren. U-Pb Datierungen an Zirkonen der Veporischen Grundgebirgseinheiten zeigen für die gesamte Veporische Einheit ordovizische Entsehungsalter an (440-470 Ma). Diese Datierungen revidieren publizierte kambrische Entstehungsalter dieses Grundgebirges. Die Isotopensignatur (epsilon Nd und 87Sr/86Sr) der ordovizischen Grundgebirgseinheiten, bestehend aus stark überprägten Amphiboliten und Gneissen, ist von der Signatur der sich im Norden anschliessenden Tatrischen Einheit gut unterscheidbar. Die Bleiisotopenzusammensetzung dieser Gesteine ist stark krustal geprägt und überschneidet sich mit der der Tatrischen Einheit. Zusammen mit den T-DM Altern sind diese Einheiten vergleichbar mit prävariskischen Einheiten der Alpen. Somit kann das ordovizische Grundgebirge zu den peri-Gondwana Terranen gezählt werden, die an einem aktiven Kontinentalrand im Norden von Gondwana gebildet wurden. In den Gesteinen der Veporischen Einheit wurde im Weiteren eine starke metamorphe überprägung und intensiver felsischer Magmatismus karbonischen Alters erkannt (320-350 Ma). Dieses Ereignis ist zeitgleich mit dem Magmatismus, welcher hauptsächlich in der sich im Norden anschliessenden Tatrischen Einheit beobachtet wird. Dieser gehört der variskischen Orogenese an. Intensive alpine Deformation und Metamorphose konnte in der südlichen Veporischen Einheit anhand der Einzelzirkondatierungen und der Isotopendaten der ordovizischen Einheiten nachgewiesen werden. Am Dlha Dolina Granit in der Gemerischen Einheit können starke Fraktionierungs- und Auto-Metasomatose-Effekte beobachtet werden. Durch die magmatische Fraktionierung wird eine Anreicherung der SEE erzeugt, wogegen die Metasomatose die SEE stark verarmt. Es kommt sogar zur Ausbildung eines Tetraden Effektes im SEE Muster, welche den starken Einfluss von Fluiden während der spät-magmatischen Phase belegt. Gesamtgesteins Pb-Pb Daten beschränken das minimale Intrusionsalter dieses Granites auf 240 Ma. Dieses Alter ist in guter übereinstimmung mit den Sr-Isotopendaten der magmatisch dominierten Gesteine, wohingegen die stark metasomatisch geprägten Gesteine ein zu radiogenes 87Sr/86Sri aufweisen. Während dieser Arbeit wurde intensiv mit der Blei-Isotopenzusammensetzung von Gesamtgesteinsproben gearbeitet. Um die Auswertung dieser Daten optimieren zu können wurde ein Computerscript für das GPL Programm Octave erstellt. Die Hauptaufgabe dieses Scripts besteht darin, Regressionen für geochronologische Anwendungen gemäss York (1969) zu berechnen. Ausserdem können mu und kappa-Werte für diese Regressionen berechnet und eine Hauptkomponentenanalyse, welche hilfreich für den Vergleich von zwei Datensätzen ist, durchgeführt werden. Am Ende der vorliegenden Arbeit wird die analytische Methode für einen Mikrowellen beschleunigten Säureaufschluss von granitoidem Material zur Bestimmung der Sr- und Nd-Isotopenzusammensetzung und der Elementkonzentrationen vorgestellt. Diese kombinierte Methode nutzt ein TIMS für die Sr und Nd Isotopenmessungen und eine Einzelkollektor-ICPMS zur Bestimmung der SEE, Rb und Sr Konzentrationen, welche mithilfe von relativen Sensitivitätsfaktoren gegenüber einem internen Standard quantifiziert werden. Diese Methode wird durch Messungen von internationalen Referenzmaterialien bewertet. Die Ergebnisse zeigen eine Reproduzierbarkeit von <10% für die Elementkonzentrationen und von <5% für Elementverhältnisse.

Rezente Bodenbewegungspotenziale in Schleswig-Holstein (Deutschland)

Die Entwicklung des Nordwestdeutschen Beckens und seiner rezenten Topographie ist geprägt von einer Vielzahl endogener und exogener Prozesse: Tektonik, Vulkanismus, Diapirismus, Eisvorstöße, elsterzeitlichen Rinnen und die Ablagerung von quartären Sedimenten. Mit Hilfe der Quantifizierung von Bodenbewegungspotenzialen wurde für Schleswig-Holstein der Einfluß von Tiefenstrukturen (insbesondere Salzstrukturen und tektonische Störungen) auf die Entwicklung der rezenten Topographie in Schleswig-Holstein untersucht. Dabei wurden folgende Parameter berücksichtigt: (1) Salzstrukturen; (2) Tektonischen Störungen; (3) Oberflächennahe Störungen, die mit einer hohen Wahrscheinlichkeit an der Erdoberfläche ausstreichen; (4) Elsterzeitliche Rinnen (tiefer 100 m); (5) Historische Erdbeben; (6) In Satellitenbildszenen kartierte Lineamente (7) Korrelationskoeffizienten, die zwischen 7 stratigraphischen Horizonten des „Geotektonischen Atlas von NW-Deutschland“ berechnet wurden. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass in Schleswig-Holstein großflächig rezente Bodenbewegungs-potenziale auftreten, die auf tektonische Störungen und Salzstrukturen zurückzuführen sind und sich hauptsächlich auf den Bereich des Glückstadt Grabens beschränken. In den 5 Gebieten Sterup, Tellingstedt Nord, Oldensworth Nord, Schwarzenbek und Plön treten die höchsten Bodenbewegungspotenziale auf. Sie dokumentieren rezente Prozesse in diesen Gebieten. In den Gebieten Sterup, Schwarzenbek und Plön sind aktive, an der Erdoberfläche ausstreichende Störungen lokalisiert, deren Auftreten auch durch kartierte Luft- und Satellitenbildlineare belegt wird. Im Gebiet Plön werden die ermittelten Bodenbewegungspotenziale durch eine, sich rezent vergrößernde Senke bei Kleinneudorf bestätigt. Unterhalb der Senke führen, begünstigt durch tektonische Störungen, Lösungsprozesse in tertiären Sedimenten zu Hohlraumbildungen, die das rezente Absacken der Senke verursachen. Für Bereiche höchsten Bodenbewegungspotenzials kann ein Einfluß von Tiefenstrukturen auf die Entwicklung der rezenten Topographie nachgewiesen werden. So beeinflussen oberflächennahe Störungen in dem Gebiet Plön die Entwicklung des Plöner Sees. Im Gebiet Schwarzenbek verursacht ein N-S orientiertes Störungsband ein Abknicken des Elbverlaufs. Weiterhin kann ein Einfluß der Entwicklung der rezenten Topographie durch eine Interaktion zwischen Eisauflast und Salzmobilität in den Gebieten Sterup und Oldensworth nachgewiesen werden. Demnach ist die Ablagerung quartärer Sedimente und somit der Grenzverlauf der Flußgebietseinheiten Eider und Schlei-Trave zwischen den Salzstrukturen Sterup und Meezen beeinflusst durch eine aktive Reaktion beider Salzstrukturen auf Eisauflast. Im Bereich Oldensworth zeigen geologische Schnitte von der Basis Oberkreide bis zur rezenten Topographie, dass die Salzmauern Oldensworth und Hennstedt die Ablagerung quartärer Sedimente aktiv beeinflussten. Weiterhin orientiert sich der Elbverlauf von Hamburg bis zur Mündung an den Randbereichen von Salzstrukturen, die bis in den oberflächennahen Bereich aufgestiegen sind.

Deep geometry of subduction below the Andean belt of Colombia as revealed by seismic tomography

In this study new tomographic models of Colombia were calculated. I used the seismicity recorded by the Colombian seismic network during the period 2006-2009. In this time period, the improvement of the seismic network yields more stable hypocentral results with respect to older data set and allows to compute new 3D Vp and Vp/Vs models. The final dataset consists of 10813 P- and 8614 S-arrival times associated to 1405 earthquakes. Tests with synthetic data and resolution analysis indicate that velocity models are well constrained in central, western and southwestern Colombia to a depth of 160 km; the resolution is poor in the northern Colombia and close to Venezuela due to a lack of seismic stations and seismicity. The tomographic models and the relocated seismicity indicate the existence of E-SE subducting Nazca lithosphere beneath central and southern Colombia. The North-South changes in Wadati-Benioff zone, Vp & Vp/Vs pattern and volcanism, show that the downgoing plate is segmented by slab tears E-W directed, suggesting the presence of three sectors. Earthquakes in the northernmost sector represent most of the Colombian seimicity and concentrated on 100-170 km depth interval, beneath the Eastern Cordillera. Here a massive dehydration is inferred, resulting from a delay in the eclogitization of a thickened oceanic crust in a flat-subduction geometry. In this sector a cluster of intermediate-depth seismicity (Bucaramanga Nest) is present beneath the elbow of the Eastern Cordillera, interpreted as the result of massive and highly localized dehydration phenomenon caused by a hyper-hydrous oceanic crust. The central and southern sectors, although different in Vp pattern show, conversely, a continuous, steep and more homogeneous Wadati-Benioff zone with overlying volcanic areas. Here a "normalthickened" oceanic crust is inferred, allowing for a gradual and continuous metamorphic reactions to take place with depth, enabling the fluid migration towards the mantle wedge.

Geochemistry, petrogenesis and tectonic setting of ophiolites and mafic-ultramafic complexes in the Northeastern Aegean Region

In this study two ophiolites and a mafic-ultramafic complexes of the northeastern Aegean Sea, Greece, have been investigated to re-evaluate their petrogenetic evolution and tectonic setting. These complexes are: the mafic-ultramafic complex of Lesvos Island and the ophiolites of Samothraki Island and the Evros area. In order to examine these complexes in detail whole-rock major- and trace-elements as well as Sr and Nd isotopes, and minerals were analysed and U-Pb SHRIMP ages on zircons were determined. The mafic-ultramafic complex of Lesvos Island consists of mantle peridotite thrusted over a tectonic mélange containing metasediments, metabasalts and a few metagabbros. This succession had previously been interpreted as an ophiolite of Late Jurassic age. The new field and geochemical data allow a reinterpretation of this complex as representing an incipient continental rift setting that led to the subsequent formation of the Meliata-Maliac-Vardar branches of Neotethys in Upper Permian times (253 ± 6 Ma) and the term “Lesvos ophiolite” should be abandoned. With proceeding subduction and closure of the Maliac Ocean in Late Jurassic times (155 Ma) the Lesvos mafic-ultramafic complex was obducted. Zircon ages of 777, 539 and 338 Ma from a gabbro strongly suggest inheritance from the intruded basement and correspond to ages of distinct terranes recently recognized in the Hellenides (e.g. Florina terrane). Geochemical similar complexes which contain rift associations with Permo-Triassic ages can be found elsewhere in Greece and Turkey, namely the Teke Dere Thrust Sheet below the Lycian Nappes (SW Turkey), the Pindos subophiolitic mélange (W Greece), the Volcanosedimentary Complex on Central Evia Island (Greece) and the Karakaya Complex (NW Turkey). This infers that the rift-related rocks from Lesvos belong to an important Permo-Triassic rifting episode in the eastern Mediterranean. The ‘in-situ’ ophiolite of Samothraki Island comprises gabbros, sparse dykes and basalt flows as well as pillows cut by late dolerite dykes and had conventionally been interpreted as having formed in an ensialic back-arc basin. The results of this study revealed that none of the basalts and dolerites resemble mid-ocean ridge or back-arc basin basalts thus suggesting that the Samothraki ophiolite cannot represent mature back-arc basin crust. The age of the complex is regarded to be 160 ± 5 Ma (i.e. Oxfordian; early Upper Jurassic), which precludes any correlation with the Lesvos mafic-ultramafic complex further south (253 ± 6 Ma; Upper Permian). Restoration of the block configuration in NE Greece, before extensional collapse of the Hellenic hinterland and exhumation of the Rhodope Metamorphic Core Complex (mid-Eocene to mid-Miocene), results in a continuous ophiolite belt from Guevgueli in the NW to Samothraki in the SE, thus assigning the latter to the Innermost Hellenic Ophiolite Belt. In view of the data of this study, the Samothraki ophiolite represents a rift propagation of the Sithonia ophiolite spreading ridge into the Chortiatis calc-alkaline arc. The ophiolite of the Evros area consists of a plutonic sequence comprising cumulate and non-cumulate gabbros with plagiogranite veins, and an extrusive sequence of basalt dykes, massive and pillow lavas as well as pyroclastic rocks. Furthermore, in the Rhodope Massif tectonic lenses of harzburgites and dunites can be found. All rocks are spatially separated. The analytical results of this study revealed an intra-oceanic island arc setting for the Evros ophiolitic rocks. During late Middle Jurassic times (169 ± 2 Ma) an intra-oceanic arc has developed above a northwards directed intra-oceanic subduction zone of the Vardar Ocean in front of the Rhodope Massif. The boninitic, island arc tholeiitic and calc-alkaline rocks reflect the evolution of the Evros island arc. The obduction of the ophiolitic rocks onto the Rhodope basement margin took place during closure of the Vardar ocean basins. The harzburgites and dunites of the Rhodope Massif are strongly depleted and resemble harzburgites from recent oceanic island arcs. After melt extraction they underwent enrichment processes by percolating melts and fluids from the subducted slab. The relationship of the peridotites and the Evros ophiolite is still ambiguous, but the stratigraphic positions of the peridotites and the ophiolitic rocks indicate separated origin. The harzburgites and dunites most probably represent remnants of the mantle wedge of the island arc of the Rhodope terrane formed above subducted slab of the Nestos Ocean in late Middle Jurassic times. During collision of the Thracia terrane with the Rhodope terrane thrusting of the Rhodope terrane onto the Thracia terrane took place, whereas the harzburgites and dunites were pushed between the two terranes now cropping out on top of the Thracia terrane of the Rhodope Massif.

Transform Tectonics and Non-Volcanic Oceanic Islands

Oceanic islands can be divided, according to their origin, in volcanic and tectonic. Volcanic islands are due to excess volcanism. Tectonic islands are mainly formed due to vertical tectonic motions of blocks of oceanic lithosphere along transverse ridges flanking transform faults at slow and ultraslow mid-ocean ridges. Vertical tectonic motions are due to a reorganization of the geometry of the transform plate boundary, with the transition from a transcurrent tectonics to a transtensive and/or transpressive tectonics, with the formation of the transverse ridges. Tectonic islands can be located also at the ridge–transform intersection: in this case the uplift is due by the movement of the long-lived detachment faults located along the flanks of the mid-ocean ridges. The "Vema" paleoisland (equatorial Atlantic) is at the summit of the southern transverse ridge of the Vema transform. It is now 450 m bsl and it is capped by a carbonate platform 500 m-thick, dated by 87Sr/86Sr at 10 Ma. Three tectonic paleoislands are on the summit of the transverse ridge flanking the Romanche megatrasform (equatorial Atlantic). They are now about 1,000 m bsl and they are formed by 300 m-thick carbonate platforms dated by 87Sr/86Sr, between 11 and 6 Ma. The tectonic paleoisland “Atlantis Bank" is located in the South-Western Indian Ridge, along the Atlantis II transform, and it is today 700 m bsl. The only modern example of oceanic tectonics island is the St. Paul Rocks (equatorial Atlantic), located along the St. Paul transform. This archipelago is the top of a peridotitic massif that it is now a left overstep undergoing transpression. Oceanic volcanic islands are characterized by rapid growth and subsequent thermal subsidence and drowning; in contrast, oceanic tectonic islands may have one or more stages of emersion related to vertical tectonic events along the large oceanic fracture zones.

Low-temperature evolution of the Morondava rift basin shoulder in western Madagascar: An apatite fission track study

[1] The evolution of the rift shoulder and the sedimentary sequence of the Morondava basin in western Madagascar was mainly influenced by a Permo-Triassic continental failed rift (Karroo rift), and the early Jurassic separation of Madagascar from Africa. Karroo deposits are restricted to a narrow corridor along the basement-basin contact and parts of this contact feature a steep escarpment. Here, apatite fission track (AFT) analysis of a series of both basement and sediment samples across the escarpment reveals the low-temperature evolution of the exhuming Precambrian basement in the rift basin shoulder and the associated thermal evolution of the sedimentary succession. Seven basement and four Karroo sediment samples yield apparent AFT ages between ∼330 and ∼215 Ma and ∼260 and ∼95 Ma, respectively. Partially annealed fission tracks and thermal modeling indicate post-depositional thermal overprinting of both basement and Karroo sediment. Rocks presently exposed in the rift shoulder indicate temperatures of >60°C associated with this reheating whereby the westernmost sample in the sedimentary plain experienced almost complete resetting of the detrital apatite grains at temperatures of about ∼90–100°C. The younging of AFT ages westward indicates activity of faults, re-activating inherited Precambrian structures during Karroo sedimentation. Furthermore, our data suggest onset of final cooling/exhumation linked to (1) the end of Madagascar's drift southward relative to Africa during the Early Cretaceous, (2) activity of the Marion hot spot and associated Late Cretaceous break-up between Madagascar and India, and (3) the collision of India with Eurasia and subsequent re-organization of spreading systems in the Indian Ocean.

Io volcano observer (IVO) integrated approach to optimizing system design for radiation challenges

One of the major challenges for a mission to the Jovian system is the radiation tolerance of the spacecraft (S/C) and the payload. Moreover, being able to achieve science observations with high signal to noise ratios (SNR), while passing through the high flux radiation zones, requires additional ingenuity on the part of the instrument provider. Consequently, the radiation mitigation is closely intertwined with the payload, spacecraft and trajectory design, and requires a systems-level approach. This paper presents a design for the Io Volcano Observer (IVO), a Discovery mission concept that makes multiple close encounters with Io while orbiting Jupiter. The mission aims to answer key outstanding questions about Io, especially the nature of its intense active volcanism and the internal processes that drive it. The payload includes narrow-angle and wide-angle cameras (NAC and WAC), dual fluxgate magnetometers (FGM), a thermal mapper (ThM), dual ion and neutral mass spectrometers (INMS), and dual plasma ion analyzers (PIA). The radiation mitigation is implemented by drawing upon experiences from designs and studies for missions such as the Radiation Belt Storm Probes (RBSP) and Jupiter Europa Orbiter (JEO). At the core of the radiation mitigation is IVO's inclined and highly elliptical orbit, which leads to rapid passes through the most intense radiation near Io, minimizing the total ionizing dose (177 krads behind 100 mils of Aluminum with radiation design margin (RDM) of 2 after 7 encounters). The payload and the spacecraft are designed specifically to accommodate the fast flyby velocities (e.g. the spacecraft is radioisotope powered, remaining small and agile without any flexible appendages). The science instruments, which collect the majority of the high-priority data when close to Io and thus near the peak flux, also have to mitigate transient noise in their detectors. The cameras use a combination of shielding and CMOS detectors with extremely fast readout to mi- imize noise. INMS microchannel plate detectors and PIA channel electron multipliers require additional shielding. The FGM is not sensitive to noise induced by energetic particles and the ThM microbolometer detector is nearly insensitive. Detailed SNR calculations are presented. To facilitate targeting agility, all of the spacecraft components are shielded separately since this approach is more mass efficient than using a radiation vault. IVO uses proven radiation-hardened parts (rated at 100 krad behind equivalent shielding of 280 mils of Aluminum with RDM of 2) and is expected to have ample mass margin to increase shielding if needed.

Ultraviolet digital imaging of volcanic plumes : implementation and application to magmatic processes at basaltic volcanoes

Magmatic volatiles play a crucial role in volcanism, from magma production at depth to generation of seismic phenomena to control of eruption style. Accordingly, many models of volcano dynamics rely heavily on behavior of such volatiles. Yet measurements of emission rates of volcanic gases have historically been limited, which has restricted model verification to processes on the order of days or longer. UV cameras are a recent advancement in the field of remote sensing of volcanic SO2 emissions. They offer enhanced temporal and spatial resolution over previous measurement techniques, but need development before they can be widely adopted and achieve the promise of integration with other geophysical datasets. Large datasets require a means by which to quickly and efficiently use imagery to calculate emission rates. We present a suite of programs designed to semi-automatically determine emission rates of SO2 from series of UV images. Extraction of high temporal resolution SO2 emission rates via this software facilitates comparison of gas data to geophysical data for the purposes of evaluating models of volcanic activity and has already proven useful at several volcanoes. Integrated UV camera and seismic measurements recorded in January 2009 at Fuego volcano, Guatemala, provide new insight into the system’s shallow conduit processes. High temporal resolution SO2 data reveal patterns of SO2 emission rate relative to explosions and seismic tremor that indicate tremor and degassing share a common source process. Progressive decreases in emission rate appear to represent inhibition of gas loss from magma as a result of rheological stiffening in the upper conduit. Measurements of emission rate from two closely-spaced vents, made possible by the high spatial resolution of the camera, help constrain this model. UV camera measurements at Kilauea volcano, Hawaii, in May of 2010 captured two occurrences of lava filling and draining within the summit vent. Accompanying high lava stands were diminished SO2 emission rates, decreased seismic and infrasonic tremor, minor deflation, and slowed lava lake surface velocity. Incorporation of UV camera data into the multi-parameter dataset gives credence to the likelihood of shallow gas accumulation as the cause of such events.

Eruptive history of Maderas volcano using new 40Ar/39Ar ages and geochemical analyses

Maderas volcano is a small, andesitic stratovolcano located on the island of Ometepe, in Lake Nicaragua, Nicaragua with no record of historic activity. Twenty-one samples were collected from lava flows from Maderas in 2010. Selected samples were analyzed for whole-rock geochemical data using ICP-AES and/or were dated using the 40Ar/39Ar method. The results of these analyses were combined with previously collected data from Maderas as well as field observations to determine the eruptive history of the volcano and create a geologic map. The results of the geochemical analyses indicate that Maderas is a typical Central American andesitic volcano similar to other volcanoes in Nicaragua and Costa Rica and to its nearest neighbor, Concepción volcano. It is different from Concepción in one important way – higher incompatible elements. Determined age dates range from 176.8 ± 6.1 ka to 70.5 ± 6.1 ka. Based on these ages and the geomorphology of the volcano which is characterized by a bisecting graben, it is proposed that Maderas experienced two clear generations of development with three separate phases of volcanism: initial build-up of the older cone, pre-graben lava flows, and post-graben lava flows. The ages also indicate that Maderas is markedly older than Concepción which is historically active. Results were also analyzed regarding geologic hazards. The 40Ar/39Ar ages indicate that Maderas has likely been inactive for tens of thousands of years and the risk of future volcanic eruptions is low. However, earthquake, lahar and landslide hazards exist for the communities around the volcano. The steep slopes of the eroded older cone are the most likely source of landslide and lahar hazards.

Evaluating stress patterns for Plio-Quaternary brittle deformation along the Calama-Olacapato-El Toro fault zone, Central Andes

Understanding the geometry and kinematics of the major structures of an orogen is important to elucidate its style of deformation, as well as its tectonic evolution. We describe the temporal and spatial changes in the state of stress of the trans-orogen area of the Calama-Olacapato-El Toro (COT) Fault Zone in the Central Andes, at about 24°S within the northern portion of the Puna Plateau between the Argentina-Chile border. The importance of the COT derives principally from the Quaternary-Holocene activity recognized on some segments, which may shed new light on its possible control on Quaternary volcanism and on the seismic hazard evaluation of the area. Field geological surveys along with kinematic analysis and numerical inversion of ∼140 new fault-slip measurements have revealed that this portion of the COT zone, previously considered a continuous, long-lived lineament, in reality has been subjected to three different kinematic regimes: 1) a Miocene transpressional phase with the maximum principal stress (σ1) chiefly trending NNE-SSW; 2) an extensional phase that started by 9 Ma, with a horizontal NW-SE-striking minimum principal stress (σ3) – permutations between σ2 and σ3 axes have been recognized at two sites – and 3) a left-lateral strike-slip phase with a horizontal ∼E-W &sigma1 and ∼N-S σ3 dating to the Late Pliocene-Quaternary. Spatially, in the Quaternary, the left-lateral component decreases toward the westernmost tip of the COT, where it transitions to extension; this produced to a N-S horst and graben structure. Hence, even if transcurrence is still active in the eastern portion of the COT, as focal mechanisms of crustal earthquakes indicate, our study demonstrates that extension is becoming the predominant structural style of deformation, at least in the western region. These major temporal and spatial changes in the tectonic regimes are attributed in part to changes in the magnitude of the boundary forces due to subduction processes. The overall orogen-perpendicular extension might be the result of vertical stress larger than both the horizontal stresses induced by gravitational effect of a thickened crust.