A BDI-based approach for the assessment of driver's decision-making in commuter scenarios

The rapid growth of urban areas has a significant impact on traffic and transportation systems. New management policies and planning strategies are clearly necessary to cope with the more than ever limited capacity of existing road networks. The concept of Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) arises in this scenario; rather than attempting to increase road capacity by means of physical modifications to the infrastructure, the premise of ITS relies on the use of advanced communication and computer technologies to handle today’s traffic and transportation facilities. Influencing users’ behaviour patterns is a challenge that has stimulated much research in the ITS field, where human factors start gaining great importance to modelling, simulating, and assessing such an innovative approach. This work is aimed at using Multi-agent Systems (MAS) to represent the traffic and transportation systems in the light of the new performance measures brought about by ITS technologies. Agent features have good potentialities to represent those components of a system that are geographically and functionally distributed, such as most components in traffic and transportation. A BDI (beliefs, desires, and intentions) architecture is presented as an alternative to traditional models used to represent the driver behaviour within microscopic simulation allowing for an explicit representation of users’ mental states. Basic concepts of ITS and MAS are presented, as well as some application examples related to the subject. This has motivated the extension of an existing microscopic simulation framework to incorporate MAS features to enhance the representation of drivers. This way demand is generated from a population of agents as the result of their decisions on route and departure time, on a daily basis. The extended simulation model that now supports the interaction of BDI driver agents was effectively implemented, and different experiments were performed to test this approach in commuter scenarios. MAS provides a process-driven approach that fosters the easy construction of modular, robust, and scalable models, characteristics that lack in former result-driven approaches. Its abstraction premises allow for a closer association between the model and its practical implementation. Uncertainty and variability are addressed in a straightforward manner, as an easier representation of humanlike behaviours within the driver structure is provided by cognitive architectures, such as the BDI approach used in this work. This way MAS extends microscopic simulation of traffic to better address the complexity inherent in ITS technologies.

Identification and estimation of interventions using changes in inequality measures

This paper presents semiparametric estimators of changes in inequality measures of a dependent variable distribution taking into account the possible changes on the distributions of covariates. When we do not impose parametric assumptions on the conditional distribution of the dependent variable given covariates, this problem becomes equivalent to estimation of distributional impacts of interventions (treatment) when selection to the program is based on observable characteristics. The distributional impacts of a treatment will be calculated as differences in inequality measures of the potential outcomes of receiving and not receiving the treatment. These differences are called here Inequality Treatment Effects (ITE). The estimation procedure involves a first non-parametric step in which the probability of receiving treatment given covariates, the propensity-score, is estimated. Using the inverse probability weighting method to estimate parameters of the marginal distribution of potential outcomes, in the second step weighted sample versions of inequality measures are computed. Root-N consistency, asymptotic normality and semiparametric efficiency are shown for the semiparametric estimators proposed. A Monte Carlo exercise is performed to investigate the behavior in finite samples of the estimator derived in the paper. We also apply our method to the evaluation of a job training program.

Empirical measures,learning and sunspot equilibrium

In this paper we construct sunspot equilibria that arrise from chaotic deterministic dynamics. These equilibria are robust and therefore observables. We prove that they may be learned by a sim pie rule based on the histograms or past state variables. This work gives the theoretical justification or deterministic models that might compete with stochastic models to explain real data.

On the effects of non-tariff measures on Brazilian exports

This article proposes an alternative methodology for estimating the effects of non-tariff measures on trade flows, based on the recent literature on gravity models. A two-stage Heckman selection model is applied to the case of Brazilian exports, where the second stage gravity equation is theoretically grounded on the seminal Melitz model of heterogeneous firms. This extended gravity equation highlights the role played by zero trade flows as well as firm heterogeneity in explaining bilateral trade among countries, two factors usually omitted in traditional gravity specifications found in previous literature. Last, it also proposes a economic rationale for the effects of NTM on trade flows, helping to shed some light on its main operating channels under a rather simple Cournot’s duopolistic competition framework.

Brazilian equity mutual funds: A general outlook based on performance

This dissertation main goal is to overview the Brazilian equity mutual funds returns. We find that active management is not effective for Ibovespa index, since Ibovespa active funds do not outperform the Ibovespa referenced funds. However, for IBrX index, active management do outperform the passive strategy. We found that Sustainable funds returns do not outperform the market, Endowment funds show poor performance, which could indicate strong regulation imposition over endowment funds portfolios. The size of a fund shows positive correlation to mean average returns and alphas. A fund’s lifetime is positively correlated to returns and to alphas, which could be related to more risk-taking by younger managers in order to pursue higher expected returns and, consequently, bigger inflows. Younger funds tend to have lower performance probably because, in taking more risks, they do not perform as expected. In addition, we find that the decreasing trend of the alpha evolution along the time is a sign of the industry decreasing returns of scale, which entails that managers have more difficulties to beat the market portfolio. Top 10s rankings show that funds appear more than once on the top 10s, which shows persistence of funds’ performance. Finally, concerning the deciles and quartiles rankings, the frequency of appearances changes among performance measures. There are measures which, when compared to others, strongly change the top and bottom for the decile and quartile members.

On the effects of non tariff measures on Brazilian exports

This article proposes an alternative methodology for estimating the effects of non-tariff measures on trade flows, based on the recent literature on gravity models. A two-stage Heckman selection model is applied to the case of Brazilian exports, where the second stage gravity equation is theoretically grounded on the seminal Melitz model of heterogeneous firms. This extended gravity equation highlights the role played by zero trade flows as well as firm heterogeneity in explaining bilateral trade among countries, two factors usually omitted in traditional gravity specifications found in previous literature. Last, it also proposes a economic rationale for the effects of NTM on trade flows, helping to shed some light on its main operating channels under a rather simple Cournot’s duopolistic competition framework

Determination of Merremia cissoides leaf area using the linear measures of the leaflets

O conhecimento da área foliar de plantas daninhas pode auxiliar o estudo das relações de interferência entre elas e as culturas agrícolas. O objetivo desta pesquisa foi determinar uma equação matemática que estime a área foliar de Merremia cissoides, a partir da relação entre as dimensões lineares dos limbos foliares. Folhas da espécie foram coletadas de diferentes locais na Universidade Estadual Paulista, Jaboticabal, Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, medindo-se o comprimento (C), a largura máxima (L) e a área foliar de três tipos de folíolos. Foram estimadas equações lineares Y = a x (X) para cada tipo de folíolo. Houve sobreposição dos intervalos de confiança das equações dos folíolos primário e secundário, por isso considerou-se uma única equação da média desses folíolos, além da equação do folíolo principal, para caracterização da área foliar de M. cissoides. Assim, a área foliar dessa espécie pode ser estimada pelo somatório das áreas dos limbos foliares dos folíolos principal e primário + secundário, por meio da equação AFnest = 0,501 x (X) + 2,181 x (Z), em que X indica C x L do folíolo principal e Z indica C x L médios dos folíolos primário + secundário, respectivamente.

Trends of the genetic connectedness measures among Nelore beef cattle herds

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Milk yield persistency in Brazilian Gyr cattle based on a random regression model

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Estimation of Maximal Work Rate Based on the 6-Minute Walk Test and Fat-Free Mass in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Health related quality of life among the elderly: a population-based study using SF-36 survey

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Modelling an expert GIS system based on knowledge to evaluate oil spill environmental sensitivity

Oil spills cause great damage to coastal habitats, especially when rapid and suitable response measures are not taken. Establishing high priority areas is fundamental for the operation of response teams. Under this context and considering the need for keeping all geographical information up-to-date for emergencial use, the present study proposes employing a decision tree coupled with a knowledge-based approach using GIS to assign oil sensitivity indices to Brazilian coastal habitats. The modelled system works based on rules set by the official standards of Brazilian Federal Environment Organ. We tested it on one of the littoral regions of Brazil where transportation of petroleum is most intense: the coast of the municipalities of Sao Sebastiao and Caraguatatuba in the northern littoral of São Paulo state, Brazil. The system automatically ranked the littoral sensitivity index of the study area habitats according to geographical conditions during summer and winter; since index ranks of some habitats varied between these seasons because of sediment alterations. The obtained results illustrate the great potential of the proposed system in generating ESI maps and in aiding response teams during emergency operations. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Efficiency of safety measures applied to a manual knapsack sprayer for paraquat application to Maize (Zea mays L.)

The objectives of the present study were to evaluate the safety of mixer/loaders and applicators of paraquat to maize crop by knapsack sprayers and to determine the efficacy of safety measures applied to the sprayers. Potential dermal exposure (PDE) was evaluated in 22 worker body parts. The Cu2+ cation of a copper-based fungicide was used as tracer in the spray solution. Sanitary pads and cotton gloves were used to collect the pesticide solution on the sampled body parts. It was observed that paraquat application in front of the applicator's body (0.5 and 1.0 m lance) is unsafe because PDE was 1,979.8 ml/day (for 0.5 m lance) and 1,290.4 ml/day (for 1.0 m lance) and needs 50-80% and 37-69% control of PDE respectively. Control can be achieved by the use of protective garment on the legs and feet only, which received 92-93% of the PDE. Switching the spray nozzle to the back of the operator reduced the PDE by 98% and was sufficient to make working conditions safe, while maintaining the efficiency of application and making the work lighter and more comfortable. Mixer/loaders received 86% of the PDE to the hands and the work condition was safe (MOS > 1), however impermeable gloves could be used as a further safety measure.

Profitability measures of dairy cows

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Network reconfiguration of distribution systems using metaheuristics and reliability measures

In an evermore competitive environment, power distribution companies need to continuously monitor and improve the reliability indices of their systems. The network reconfiguration (NR) of a distribution system is a technique that well adapts to this new deregulated environment for it allows improvement of system reliability indices without the onus involved in procuring new equipment. This paper presents a reliability-based NR methodology that uses metaheuristic techniques to search for the optimal network configuration. Three metaheuristics, i.e. Tabu Search, Evolution Strategy, and Differential Evolution, are tested using a Brazilian distribution network and the results are discussed. © 2009 IEEE.