The impact of temperature on mortality in Tianjin, China : a case-crossover design with a distributed lag non-linear model

Background There has been increasing interest in assessing the impacts of temperature on mortality. However, few studies have used a case–crossover design to examine non-linear and distributed lag effects of temperature on mortality. Additionally, little evidence is available on the temperature-mortality relationship in China, or what temperature measure is the best predictor of mortality. Objectives To use a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) as a part of case–crossover design. To examine the non-linear and distributed lag effects of temperature on mortality in Tianjin, China. To explore which temperature measure is the best predictor of mortality; Methods: The DLNM was applied to a case¬−crossover design to assess the non-linear and delayed effects of temperatures (maximum, mean and minimum) on deaths (non-accidental, cardiopulmonary, cardiovascular and respiratory). Results A U-shaped relationship was consistently found between temperature and mortality. Cold effects (significantly increased mortality associated with low temperatures) were delayed by 3 days, and persisted for 10 days. Hot effects (significantly increased mortality associated with high temperatures) were acute and lasted for three days, and were followed by mortality displacement for non-accidental, cardiopulmonary, and cardiovascular deaths. Mean temperature was a better predictor of mortality (based on model fit) than maximum or minimum temperature. Conclusions In Tianjin, extreme cold and hot temperatures increased the risk of mortality. Results suggest that the effects of cold last longer than the effects of heat. It is possible to combine the case−crossover design with DLNMs. This allows the case−crossover design to flexibly estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature (or air pollution) whilst controlling for season.

Projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios : A systematic review

Background: Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. Data sources and extraction: A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English up to 2010. Data synthesis: The review included 14 studies that fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding of the historical temperature-mortality relationships, and consideration of the future changes in climate, population and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socio-economic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution and mortality displacement. Conclusions: Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality.

Ambient temperature and morbidity: A review of epidemiological evidence

OBJECTIVE: This paper reviews the epidemiological evidence on the relationship between ambient temperature and morbidity. It assesses the methodological issues in previous studies, and proposes future research directions. DATA SOURCES AND DATA EXTRACTION: We searched the PubMed database for epidemiological studies on ambient temperature and morbidity of non-communicable diseases published in refereed English journals prior to June 2010. 40 relevant studies were identified. Of these, 24 examined the relationship between ambient temperature and morbidity, 15 investigated the short-term effects of heatwave on morbidity, and 1 assessed both temperature and heatwave effects. DATA SYNTHESIS: Descriptive and time-series studies were the two main research designs used to investigate the temperature–morbidity relationship. Measurements of temperature exposure and health outcomes used in these studies differed widely. The majority of studies reported a significant relationship between ambient temperature and total or cause-specific morbidities. However, there were some inconsistencies in the direction and magnitude of non-linear lag effects. The lag effect of hot temperature on morbidity was shorter (several days) compared to that of cold temperature (up to a few weeks). The temperature–morbidity relationship may be confounded and/or modified by socio-demographic factors and air pollution. CONCLUSIONS: There is a significant short-term effect of ambient temperature on total and cause-specific morbidities. However, further research is needed to determine an appropriate temperature measure, consider a diverse range of morbidities, and to use consistent methodology to make different studies more comparable.

The influence of ambient temperature on birth outcomes in Brisbane, Australia

Lately, there has been increasing interest in the association between temperature and adverse birth outcomes including preterm birth (PTB) and stillbirth. PTB is a major predictor of many diseases later in life, and stillbirth is a devastating event for parents and families. The aim of this study was to assess the seasonal pattern of adverse birth outcomes, and to examine possible associations of maternal exposure to temperature with PTB and stillbirth. We also aimed to identify if there were any periods of the pregnancy where exposure to temperature was particularly harmful. A retrospective cohort study design was used and we retrieved individual birth records from the Queensland Health Perinatal Data Collection Unit for all singleton births (excluding twins and triplets) delivered in Brisbane between 1 July 2005 and 30 June 2009. We obtained weather data (including hourly relative humidity, minimum and maximum temperature) and air-pollution data (including PM10, SO2 and O3) from the Queensland Department of Environment and Resource Management. We used survival analyses with the time-dependent variables of temperature, humidity and air pollution, and the competing risks of stillbirth and live birth. To assess the monthly pattern of the birth outcomes, we fitted month of pregnancy as a time-dependent variable. We examined the seasonal pattern of the birth outcomes and the relationship between exposure to high or low temperatures and birth outcomes over the four lag weeks before birth. We further stratified by categorisation of PTB: extreme PTB (< 28 weeks of gestation), PTB (28–36 weeks of gestation), and term birth (≥ 37 weeks of gestation). Lastly, we examined the effect of temperature variation in each week of the pregnancy on birth outcomes. There was a bimodal seasonal pattern in gestation length. After adjusting for temperature, the seasonal pattern changed from bimodal, to only one peak in winter. The risk of stillbirth was statistically significant lower in March compared with January. After adjusting for temperature, the March trough was still statistically significant and there was a peak in risk (not statistically significant) in winter. There was an acute effect of temperature on gestational age and stillbirth with a shortened gestation for increasing temperature from 15 °C to 25 °C over the last four weeks before birth. For stillbirth, we found an increasing risk with increasing temperatures from 12 °C to approximately 20 °C, and no change in risk at temperatures above 20 °C. Certain periods of the pregnancy were more vulnerable to temperature variation. The risk of PTB (28–36 weeks of gestation) increased as temperatures increased above 21 °C. For stillbirth, the fetus was most vulnerable at less than 28 weeks of gestation, but there were also effects in 28–36 weeks of gestation. For fetuses of more than 37 weeks of gestation, increasing temperatures did not increase the risk of stillbirth. We did not find any adverse affects of cold temperature on birth outcomes in this cohort. My findings contribute to knowledge of the relationship between temperature and birth outcomes. In the context of climate change, this is particularly important. The results may have implications for public health policy and planning, as they indicate that pregnant women would decrease their risk of adverse birth outcomes by avoiding exposure to high temperatures and seeking cool environments during hot days.

Sub-tropical high-density, low rise residential buildings: case study 3

The case study 3 team viewed the mitigation of noise and air pollution generated in the transport corridor that borders the study site to be a paramount driver of the urban design solution. These key urban planning strategies were adopted: * Spatial separation from transport corridor pollution source. A linear green zone and environmental buffer was proposed adjacent to the transport corridor to mitigate the environmental noise and air quality impacts of the corridor, and to offer residents opportunities for recreation * Open space forming the key structural principle for neighbourhood design. A significant open space system underpins the planning and manages surface water flows. * Urban blocks running on east-west axis. The open space rationale emphasises an east-west pattern for local streets. Street alignment allows for predominantly north-south facing terrace type buildings which both face the street and overlook the green courtyard formed by the perimeter buildings. The results of the ESD assessment of the typologies conclude that the design will achieve good outcomes through: * Lower than average construction costs compared with other similar projects * Thermal comfort; A good balance between daylight access and solar gains is achieved * The energy rating achieved for the units is 8.5 stars.

A review of commuter exposure to ultrafine particles and its health effects

Ultrafine particles (UFPs, <100 nm) are produced in large quantities by vehicular combustion and are implicated in causing several adverse human health effects. Recent work has suggested that a large proportion of daily UFP exposure may occur during commuting. However, the determinants, variability and transport mode-dependence of such exposure are not well-understood. The aim of this review was to address these knowledge gaps by distilling the results of ‘in-transit’ UFP exposure studies performed to-date, including studies of health effects. We identified 47 exposure studies performed across 6 transport modes: automobile, bicycle, bus, ferry, rail and walking. These encompassed approximately 3000 individual trips where UFP concentrations were measured. After weighting mean UFP concentrations by the number of trips in which they were collected, we found overall mean UFP concentrations of 3.4, 4.2, 4.5, 4.7, 4.9 and 5.7 × 10^4 particles cm^-3 for the bicycle, bus, automobile, rail, walking and ferry modes, respectively. The mean concentration inside automobiles travelling through tunnels was 3.0 × 10^5 particles cm^-3. While the mean concentrations were indicative of general trends, we found that the determinants of exposure (meteorology, traffic parameters, route, fuel type, exhaust treatment technologies, cabin ventilation, filtration, deposition, UFP penetration) exhibited marked variability and mode-dependence, such that it is not necessarily appropriate to rank modes in order of exposure without detailed consideration of these factors. Ten in-transit health effects studies have been conducted and their results indicate that UFP exposure during commuting can elicit acute effects in both healthy and health-compromised individuals. We suggest that future work should focus on further defining the contribution of in-transit UFP exposure to total UFP exposure, exploring its specific health effects and investigating exposures in the developing world. Keywords: air pollution; transport modes; acute health effects; travel; public transport

Design of sustainable transport : opportunities

The need to find an alternative to our current transport situation is widely accepted. In most cities of the world, traffic congestion is commonplace and air pollution is normal. Road fatalities are a regular and almost accepted event. And (in most developed nations) as an indirect consequence of our transport choices, obesity is increasing at an alarming rate. The car is undeniably a major contributor to this situation. Additionally the very structure of our cities has evolved to the point that it can be creditably claimed that the city belongs to the car and not to humans. There are however alternatives. There is a plethora of experimental vehicles in all shapes and configurations. And yet, the car is still king. The question is, how do we pick a winner? What are the aspects of the car that make it so appealing? Are these aspects able to be translated into a more sustainable version? What do we need to incorporate in our designs of new vehicles to make them more appealing to the consumers? In this paper I explore these questions and propose a list of design criteria for more sustainable transport options.

Estimation on the mortality and disease burden attributed to selected risk factors in Shandong province [山东省主要危险因素的归因死亡和疾病负担分析]

Objective: To determine the major health related risk factors and provide evidence for policy-making,using health burden analysis on selected factors among general population from Shandong province. Methods: Based on data derived from the Third Death of Cause Sampling Survey in Shandong. Years of life lcrat(YLLs),yearS Iived with disability(YLDs)and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs) were calculated according to the GBD ethodology.Deaths and DALYs attributed to the selected risk factors were than estimated together with the PAF data from GBD 2001 study.The indirect method was employed to estimate the YLDs. Results: 51.09%of the total dearlls and 31.83%of the total DALYs from the Shandong population were resulted from the 19 selected risk factors.High blood pre.ure,smoking,low fruit and vegetable intake,aleohol consumption,indoor smoke from solid fuels,high cholesterol,urban air pollution, physical inactivity,overweight and obesity and unsafe injections in health care settings were identified as the top 10 risk faetors for mortality which together caused 50.21%of the total deaths.Alcohol use,smoking,high blood pressure,Low fruit and vegetable intake, indoor smoke from solid fuels, overweight and obesity,high cholesterol, physical inactivity,urban air pollution and iron-deficiency anemia were proved as the top 10 risk factors related to disease burden and were responsible for 29.04%of the total DALYs. Conclusion: Alcohol use.smoking and high blood pressure were determined as the major risk factors which influencing the health of residents in Shandong. The mortality and burden of disease could be reduced significantly if these major factors were effectively under control.

The effect of housing characteristics and occupant activities on the respiratory health of women and children in Lao PDR

The paper presents the results of a study conducted into the relationship between dwelling characteristics and occupant activities with the respiratory health of resident women and children in Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR). Lao is one of the least developed countries in south-east Asia with poor life expectancies and mortality rates. The study, commissioned by the World Health Organisation, included questionnaires delivered to residents of 356 dwellings in nine districts in Lao PDR over a five month period (December 2005-April 2006), with the aim of identifying the association between respiratory health and indoor air pollution, in particular exposures related to indoor biomass burning. Adjusted odds ratios were calculated for each health outcome separately using binary logistic regression. After adjusting for age, a wide range of symptoms of respiratory illness in women and children aged 1-4 years were positively associated with a range of indoor exposures related to indoor cooking, including exposure to a fire and location of the cooking place. Among women, “dust always inside the house” and smoking were also identified as strong risk factors for respiratory illness. Other strong risk factors for children, after adjusting for age and gender, included dust and drying clothes inside. This analysis confirms the role of indoor air pollution in the burden of disease among women and children in Lao PDR.

Influence of medium range transport of particles from nucleation burst on particle number concentration within the urban airshed

An elevated particle number concentration (PNC) observed during nucleation events could play a significant contribution to the total particle load and therefore to the air pollution in the urban environments. Therefore, a field measurement study of PNC was commenced to investigate the temporal and spatial variations of PNC within the urban airshed of Brisbane, Australia. PNC was monitored at urban (QUT), roadside (WOO) and semi-urban (ROC) areas around the Brisbane region during 2009. During the morning traffic peak period, the highest relative fraction of PNC reached about 5% at QUT and WOO on weekdays. PNC peaks were observed around noon, which correlated with the highest solar radiation levels at all three stations, thus suggesting that high PNC levels were likely to be associated with new particle formation caused by photochemical reactions. Wind rose plots showed relatively higher PNC for the NE direction, which was associated with industrial pollution, accounting for 12%, 9% and 14% of overall PNC at QUT, WOO and ROC, respectively. Although there was no significant correlation between PNC at each station, the variation of PNC was well correlated among three stations during regional nucleation events. In addition, PNC at ROC was significantly influenced by upwind urban pollution during the nucleation burst events, with the average enrichment factor of 15.4. This study provides an insight into the influence of regional nucleation events on PNC in the Brisbane region and it the first study to quantify the effect of urban pollution on semi-urban PNC through the nucleation events. © 2012 Author(s).

Estimating the effects of environmental exposures using a weighted mean of monitoring stations

The health effects of environmental hazards are often examined using time series of the association between a daily response variable (e.g., death) and a daily level of exposure (e.g., temperature). Exposures are usually the average from a network of stations. This gives each station equal importance, and negates the opportunity for some stations to be better measures of exposure. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model that weighted stations using random variables between zero and one. We compared the weighted estimates to the standard model using data on health outcomes (deaths and hospital admissions) and exposures (air pollution and temperature) in Brisbane, Australia. The improvements in model fit were relatively small, and the estimated health effects of pollution were similar using either the standard or weighted estimates. Spatial weighted exposures would be probably more worthwhile when there is either greater spatial detail in the health outcome, or a greater spatial variation in exposure.

Traffic-related fine and ultrafine particle exposures of professional drivers and illness : An opportunity to better link exposure science and epidemiology to address an occupational hazard?

Exposures to traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) can be particularly high in transport microenvironments (i.e. in and around vehicles) despite the short durations typically spent there. There is a mounting body of evidence that suggests that this is especially true for fine (b2.5 μm) and ultrafine (b100 nm, UF) particles. Professional drivers, who spend extended periods of time in transport microenvironments due to their job, may incur exposures markedly higher than already elevated non-occupational exposures. Numerous epidemiological studies have shown a raised incidence of adverse health outcomes among professional drivers, and exposure to TRAP has been suggested as one of the possible causal factors. Despite this, data describing the range and determinants of occupational exposures to fine and UF particles are largely conspicuous in their absence. Such information could strengthen attempts to define the aetiology of professional drivers' illnesses as it relates to traffic combustion-derived particles. In this article, we suggest that the drivers' occupational fine and UF particle exposures are an exemplar case where opportunities exist to better link exposure science and epidemiology in addressing questions of causality. The nature of the hazard is first introduced, followed by an overview of the health effects attributable to exposures typical of transport microenvironments. Basic determinants of exposure and reduction strategies are also described, and finally the state of knowledge is briefly summarised along with an outline of the main unanswered questions in the topic area.

Source apportionment of ultrafine and fine particle concentrations in Brisbane, Australia

Purpose: To investigate the significance of sources around measurement sites, assist the development of control strategies for the important sources and mitigate the adverse effects of air pollution due to particle size. Methods: In this study, sampling was conducted at two sites located in urban/industrial and residential areas situated at roadsides along the Brisbane Urban Corridor. Ultrafine and fine particle measurements obtained at the two sites in June-July 2002 were analysed by Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF). Results: Six sources were present, including local traffic, two traffic sources, biomass burning, and two currently unidentified sources. Secondary particles had a significant impact at Site 1, while nitrates, peak traffic hours and main roads located close to the source also affected the results for both sites. Conclusions: This significant traffic corridor exemplifies the type of sources present in heavily trafficked locations and future attempts to control pollution in this type of environment could focus on the sources that were identified.