Clinically relevant quality measures for risk factor control in primary care: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND Assessment of the proportion of patients with well controlled cardiovascular risk factors underestimates the proportion of patients receiving high quality of care. Evaluating whether physicians respond appropriately to poor risk factor control gives a different picture of quality of care. We assessed physician response to control cardiovascular risk factors, as well as markers of potential overtreatment in Switzerland, a country with universal healthcare coverage but without systematic quality monitoring, annual report cards on quality of care or financial incentives to improve quality. METHODS We performed a retrospective cohort study of 1002 randomly selected patients aged 50-80 years from four university primary care settings in Switzerland. For hypertension, dyslipidemia and diabetes mellitus, we first measured proportions in control, then assessed therapy modifications among those in poor control. "Appropriate clinical action" was defined as a therapy modification or return to control without therapy modification within 12 months among patients with baseline poor control. Potential overtreatment of these conditions was defined as intensive treatment among low-risk patients with optimal target values. RESULTS 20% of patients with hypertension, 41% with dyslipidemia and 36% with diabetes mellitus were in control at baseline. When appropriate clinical action in response to poor control was integrated into measuring quality of care, 52 to 55% had appropriate quality of care. Over 12 months, therapy of 61% of patients with baseline poor control was modified for hypertension, 33% for dyslipidemia, and 85% for diabetes mellitus. Increases in number of drug classes (28-51%) and in drug doses (10-61%) were the most common therapy modifications. Patients with target organ damage and higher baseline values were more likely to have appropriate clinical action. We found low rates of potential overtreatment with 2% for hypertension, 3% for diabetes mellitus and 3-6% for dyslipidemia. CONCLUSIONS In primary care, evaluating whether physicians respond appropriately to poor risk factor control, in addition to assessing proportions in control, provide a broader view of the quality of care than relying solely on measures of proportions in control. Such measures could be more clinically relevant and acceptable to physicians than simply reporting levels of control.

The Making of Optimal and Consistent Policy: An Analytical Framework for Monetary Models

This paper shows that optimal policy and consistent policy outcomes require the use of control-theory and game-theory solution techniques. While optimal policy and consistent policy often produce different outcomes even in a one-period model, we analyze consistent policy and its outcome in a simple model, finding that the cause of the inconsistency with optimal policy traces to inconsistent targets in the social loss function. As a result, the central bank should adopt a loss function that differs from the social loss function. Carefully designing the central bank s loss function with consistent targets can harmonize optimal and consistent policy. This desirable result emerges from two observations. First, the social loss function reflects a normative process that does not necessarily prove consistent with the structure of the microeconomy. Thus, the social loss function cannot serve as a direct loss function for the central bank. Second, an optimal loss function for the central bank must depend on the structure of that microeconomy. In addition, this paper shows that control theory provides a benchmark for institution design in a game-theoretical framework.

The Making of Optimal and Consistent Policy: An Implementation Theory Framework for Monetary Policy

This paper shows that optimal policy and consistent policy outcomes require the use of control-theory and game-theory solution techniques. While optimal policy and consistent policy often produce different outcomes even in a one-period model, we analyze consistent policy and its outcome in a simple model, finding that the cause of the inconsistency with optimal policy traces to inconsistent targets in the social loss function. As a result, the social loss function cannot serve as a direct loss function for the central bank. Accordingly, we employ implementation theory to design a central bank loss function (mechanism design) with consistent targets, while the social loss function serves as a social welfare criterion. That is, with the correct mechanism design for the central bank loss function, optimal policy and consistent policy become identical. In other words, optimal policy proves implementable (consistent).

Emissions Control and the Regulation of Product Markets: The Case of Automobiles

The paper investigates alternative policies to regulate emissions from polluting product markets, specifically considering the case of the automobiles market. The two policies we consider are: a quota that limits the quantity produced of the polluting model and a more flexible average efficiency standard that requires a minimum energy efficiency across all models produced by a firm, similar to the US Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards. We use a duopoly model of vertical differentiation where firms produce both an economy (i.e., low polluting) version and a luxury (i.e., high polluting) version of a given product. We show that while a quota can raise firm profit over a certain range, CAFE always reduces firm profit relative to the pre-regulation. We also show that while the quota reduces emissions, it is possible that emissions increase under CAFE. The optimal policy choice will depend on the magnitude of unit damages. We show that when unit damages are sufficiently high, the quota policy is more efficient than the average efficiency standard. This suggests that instead of tightening CAFE to limit damages from emissions, policy makers can shift to a quota policy which is both welfare enhancing and more profitable for firms.

Control of the master virulence regulatory gene atxA in Bacillus anthracis

Transcription of the Bacillus anthracis structural genes for the anthrax toxin proteins and biosynthetic operon for capsule are positively regulated by AtxA, a transcription regulator with unique properties. Consistent with the role of atxA in virulence factor expression, a B. anthracis atxA-null mutant is avirulent in a murine model for anthrax. In batch culture, multiple signals impact atxA transcript levels, and the timing and steady state level of atxA expression is critical for optimal toxin and capsule synthesis. Despite the apparent complex control of atxA transcription, only one trans-acting protein, the transition state regulator AbrB, has been demonstrated to directly interact with the atxA promoter. The AbrB-binding site has been described, but additional cis-acting control sequences have not been defined. Using transcriptional lacZ fusions, electrophoretic mobility shift assays, and Western blot analysis, the cis-acting elements and trans-acting factors involved in regulation of atxA in B. anthracis strains containing either both virulence plasmids, pXO1 and pXO2, or only one plasmid, pXO1, were studied. This work demonstrates that atxA transcription from the major start site P1 is dependent upon a consensus sequence for the housekeeping sigma factor SigA, and an A+T-rich upstream element (UP-element) for RNA polymerase (RNAP). In addition, the data show that a trans-acting protein(s) other than AbrB negatively impacts atxA transcription when it binds specifically to a 9-bp palindrome within atxA promoter sequences located downstream of P1. Mutation of the palindrome prevents binding of the trans-acting protein(s) and results in a corresponding increase in AtxA and anthrax toxin production in a strain- and culture-dependent manner. The identity of the trans-acting repressor protein(s) remains elusive; however, phenotypes associated with mutation of the repressor binding site have revealed that the trans-acting repressor protein(s) indirectly controls B. anthracis development. Mutation of the repressor binding site results in misregulation and overexpression of AtxA in conditions conducive for development, leading to a marked sporulation defect that is both atxA- and pXO2-61-dependent. pXO2-61 is homologous to the sensor domain of sporulation sensor histidine kinases and is proposed to titrate an activating signal away from the sporulation phosphorelay when overexpressed by AtxA. These results indicate that AtxA is not only a master virulence regulator, but also a modulator of proper B. anthracis development. Also demonstrated in this work is the impact of the developmental regulators AbrB, Spo0A, and SigH on atxA expression and anthrax toxin production in a genetically incomplete (pXO1+, pXO2-) and genetically complete (pXO1+, pXO2+) strain background. AtxA and anthrax toxin production resulting from deletion of the developmental regulators are strain-dependent suggesting that factors on pXO2 are involved in control of atxA. The only developmental deletion mutant that resulted in a prominent and consistent strain-independent increase in AtxA protein levels was an abrB-null mutant. As a result of increased AtxA levels, there is early and increased production of anthrax toxins in an abrB-null mutant. In addition, the abrB-null mutant exhibited an increase in virulence in a murine model for anthrax. In contrast, virulence of the atxA promoter mutant was unaffected in a murine model for anthrax despite the production of 5-fold more AtxA than the abrB-null mutant. These results imply that AtxA is not the only factor impacting pathogenesis in an abrB-null mutant. Overall, this work highlights the complex regulatory network that governs expression of atxA and provides an additional role for AtxA in B. anthracis development.

Optimal, minimax, and Bayesian two-stage designs in two-dose phase II clinical trials

Background: For most cytotoxic and biologic anti-cancer agents, the response rate of the drug is commonly assumed to be non-decreasing with an increasing dose. However, an increasing dose does not always result in an appreciable increase in the response rate. This may especially be true at high doses for a biologic agent. Therefore, in a phase II trial the investigators may be interested in testing the anti-tumor activity of a drug at more than one (often two) doses, instead of only at the maximum tolerated dose (MTD). This way, when the lower dose appears equally effective, this dose can be recommended for further confirmatory testing in a phase III trial under potential long-term toxicity and cost considerations. A common approach to designing such a phase II trial has been to use an independent (e.g., Simon's two-stage) design at each dose ignoring the prior knowledge about the ordering of the response probabilities at the different doses. However, failure to account for this ordering constraint in estimating the response probabilities may result in an inefficient design. In this dissertation, we developed extensions of Simon's optimal and minimax two-stage designs, including both frequentist and Bayesian methods, for two doses that assume ordered response rates between doses. ^ Methods: Optimal and minimax two-stage designs are proposed for phase II clinical trials in settings where the true response rates at two dose levels are ordered. We borrow strength between doses using isotonic regression and control the joint and/or marginal error probabilities. Bayesian two-stage designs are also proposed under a stochastic ordering constraint. ^ Results: Compared to Simon's designs, when controlling the power and type I error at the same levels, the proposed frequentist and Bayesian designs reduce the maximum and expected sample sizes. Most of the proposed designs also increase the probability of early termination when the true response rates are poor. ^ Conclusion: Proposed frequentist and Bayesian designs are superior to Simon's designs in terms of operating characteristics (expected sample size and probability of early termination, when the response rates are poor) Thus, the proposed designs lead to more cost-efficient and ethical trials, and may consequently improve and expedite the drug discovery process. The proposed designs may be extended to designs of multiple group trials and drug combination trials.^

Estrategias para el control microclimático del espacio entre edificaciones en clima cálido – húmedo

La presente investigación parte del problema en las zonas de clima cálido - húmedo en las cuales se producen impactos asociados a la incomodidad térmica producto de la intensa radiación solar, altas temperaturas y elevada humedad. Estos factores reducen la calidad de los espacios abiertos y desarrollan en la población una actitud de rechazo hacia el uso del microespacio urbano entre edificaciones en los desarrollos urbanos - conjuntos urbanos - , los mismos frecuentemente admiten soluciones que al parecer no contribuyen a la realización de las actividades comunes de esparcimiento de la población residente. Por lo tanto, el objetivo de la investigación es profundizar en la temática urbano - ambiental - social y el diseño urbano vinculada a la particularidad morfológica local, las condiciones microclimáticas, el uso del microespacio y los requerimientos de los usuarios. La finalidad de desarrollar estrategias de control microclimático del microespacio entre edificios en clima cálido - húmedo en búsqueda de soluciones óptimas que satisfagan las necesidades de los usuarios de los espacios exteriores en estas áreas residenciales. La investigación se centra en el estudio de las particularidades contextuales relacionadas con el microclima y las características urbanas - morfotipológicas, básicamente los factores microclimáticos (soleamiento y ventilación), los morfológicos y edificatorios y las características de las superficies (pavimentos). En coherencia con el objetivo propuesto el trabajo se desarrolla en cuatro fases: la primera aborda la revisión documental, literatura relevante e investigaciones relativas a la calidad ambiental, medio social, medio físico, el microespacio urbano, control y diseño sostenible, modelización proyectual y estrategias sostenibles; la segunda fase se refiere al marco contextual, características urbanas, datos climáticos locales, planes y procesos urbanos, tipologías y conformación urbana. En esta fase se describe el proceso de selección, análisis y evaluación urbano - ambiental de los casos de estudio (conjuntos residenciales). En la tercera fase se aborda el marco evaluativo y estudio de casos, consideraciones físicas, climáticas y valoración térmico - ambiental de los conjuntos residenciales seleccionados. En esta fase se aplican Técnicas Estadísticas y de Simulación Computacional y se analizan los resultados obtenidos. Finalmente, la cuarta fase propositiva incluye el establecimiento de Estrategias, Principios y Lineamientos de optimación térmica y se exponen las Conclusiones parciales de la tesis, alcances y perspectivas futuras. Finalmente, los resultados obtenidos en la investigación demuestran que el análisis en las experiencias de la realidad permiten comprobar que las situaciones y alteraciones ambientales sustanciales, los niveles de afectación térmica y las condiciones de confortabilidad e impacto derivan de las características urbanas, los componentes del microespacio y de las condiciones climáticas las cuales afectan el desarrollo de las actividades y el uso efectivo del microespacio entre edificios. El análisis de los factores morfo - climáticos incidentes y el estudio de los efectos de interacción contribuyen al establecimiento de Principios y Lineamientos para la evaluación y diseño sostenible del microespacio entre edificios y el uso correcto de los elementos del clima en estas áreas urbanas destinadas a la actividad social y al esparcimiento de la población residente. ABSTRACT This research starts from the problem of hot - humid climate zones where impacts related to thermal discomfort are produced as a result from the intense solar radiation and high temperatures and humidity. These factors reduce the quality of open spaces and people develop an attitude of rejection towards the use of urban microspace among buildings within urban developments - urban complexes - . Usually, these complexes admit solutions that apparently do not contribute to the achievement of common leisure activities in the resident dwellers. Therefore, the main purpose of this research is to deepen in the urban - environmental - social issue and urban design linked to the local morphological particularity, microclimate conditions, use of microspace and users’ requirements. In order to develop microclimate control strategies of microspace among buildings in hot - humid climate to look for optimal solutions that satisfy users’ needs of outdoors spaces in these residential areas. The research focuses in the study of contextual particularities related to microclimate and urban - morphotypological characteristics. Basically, microclimate (sunlight and ventilation), morphological and building factors as well as road surface characteristics. According to the proposed objective, this research is developed in four phases: the first one considers documentary review, relevant literature and researches related to environmental quality, social environment, physical environment, urban microspace, control and sustainable design, project modelling and sustainable strategies; while the second phase refers to contextual framework, urban characteristics, local climate data, plans and urban processes, typologies and urban structure. In this phase, the process of selection, analysis and urban - environmental evaluation of case studies (residential complexes) is described. The third phase approaches the assessment framework and case studies, physical and climate considerations as well as environmental - thermal evaluation of selected residential complexes. In this phase, statistical techniques and computational simulations are applied. Likewise, results obtained are analysed. Similarly, fourth and proposing phase includes the establishment of strategies, principles and guidelines of thermal optimization and partial conclusions of the thesis, scopes and future perspectives are exposed. Finally, from the results obtained, it is demonstrated that the analysis on reality experiences allow proving that situations and substantial environmental changes, levels of thermal affectations, comfort conditions and impact derive from urban characteristics, microspace components and from climate conditions which affect the development of activities and the effective use of microspace among buildings. The analysis of incidental morpho - climate factors and the study of interaction effects contribute to the establishment of principles and guidelines for the assessment and sustainable design of microspace among buildings as well as the correct use of climate elements in these urban areas oriented to social and leisure activities of resident population.

Analysis of the geometric altimetry to support aircraft optimal profiles within future 4D trajectory management

The use of barometric altimetry is to some extent a limiting factor on safety, predictability and efficiency of aircraft operations, and reduces the potential of the trajectory based operations capabilities. However, geometric altimetry could be used to improve all of these aspects. Nowadays aircraft altitude is estimated by applying the International Standard Atmosphere which differs from real altitude. At different temperatures for an assigned barometric altitude, aerodynamic forces are different and this has a direct relationship with time, fuel consumption and range of the flight. The study explores the feasibility of using sensors providing geometric reference altitude, in particular, to supply capabilities for the optimization of vertical profiles and also, their impact on the vertical Air Traffic Management separation assurance processes. One of the aims of the thesis is to assess if geometric altitude fulfils the aeronautical requirements through existing sensors. Also the thesis will elaborate on the advantages of geometric altitude over the barometric altitude in terms of efficiency for vertical navigation. The evidence that geometric altitude is the best choice to improve the efficiency in vertical profile and aircraft capacity by reducing vertical uncertainties will also be shown. In this paper, an atmospheric study is presented, as well as the impact of temperature deviation from International Standard Atmosphere model is analyzed in order to obtain relationship between geometric and barometric altitude. Furthermore, an aircraft model to study aircraft vertical profile is provided to analyse trajectories based on geometric altitudes.

See-and-avoid quadcopter using fuzzy control optimized by cross-entropy

In this work we present an optimized fuzzy visual servoing system for obstacle avoidance using an unmanned aerial vehicle. The cross-entropy theory is used to optimise the gains of our controllers. The optimization process was made using the ROS-Gazebo 3D simulation with purposeful extensions developed for our experiments. Visual servoing is achieved through an image processing front-end that uses the Camshift algorithm to detect and track objects in the scene. Experimental flight trials using a small quadrotor were performed to validate the parameters estimated from simulation. The integration of crossentropy methods is a straightforward way to estimate optimal gains achieving excellent results when tested in real flights.

Excitación y control de IGBTs de un inversor trifásico sinusoidal

El origen del proyecto se encuentra en la mejora de un inversor trifásico sinusoidal comercial sobre la base del estudio de las técnicas de excitación óptimas para los IGBTs que lo componen en su etapa de potencia. En las primeras fases de planteamiento del proyecto se propone una idea mucho más ambiciosa, la realización de un nuevo convertidor de emergencia, destinado al sector ferroviario, para dar servicio de climatización. Este convertidor está formado por la asociación en cascada de un bloque DC/DC elevador y un bloque inversor DC/AC trifásico controlado mediante PWM con modulación sinusoidal. Se pretendía así dar solución a las siguientes problemáticas detectadas en los convertidores comercializados hasta el momento: un bloque elevador excesivamente sobredimensionado, subsistemas de control independientes para los dos bloques que configuran el convertidor, adicionalmente, la tarjeta driver se rediseña con cada cambio de especificaciones por parte de un nuevo cliente y finalmente, las comunicaciones tanto de diagnosis como de mantenimiento necesitaban una importante actualización. Inicialmente, se ha realizado un estudio teórico de los bloques elevador e inversor para poder realizar el diseño y dimensionamiento de sus componentes tanto semiconductores como electromagnéticos. Una vez completada la parte de potencia, se estudia el control que se realiza mediante medidas directas y simulación tanto de la estrategia de control del elevador como del inversor. Así se obtiene una información completa de la funcionalidad de las tarjetas existentes. Se desea realizar el diseño de una única tarjeta controladora y una única tarjeta de drivers para ambos bloques. Por problemas ajenos, en el transcurso de este proyecto se cancela su realización comercial, con lo que se decide al menos crear la placa de control y poder gobernar un convertidor ya existente, sustituyendo la tarjeta de control del bloque elevador. Para poder fabricar la placa de control se divide en dos tarjetas que irán conectadas en modo sándwich. En una tarjeta está el microcontrolador y en otra está todo el interface necesario para operar con el sistema: entradas y salidas digitales, entradas y salidas analógicas, comunicación CAN, y un pequeño DC/DC comercial que proporciona alimentación al prototipo. Se realiza un pequeño programa funcional para poder manejar el convertidor, el cual con una tensión de 110V DC, proporciona a la salida una tensión de 380V AC. Como ya se ha expuesto, debido a la cancelación del proyecto industrial no se profundiza más en su mejora y se decide proponerlo para su evaluación en su fase actual. ABSTRACT. The beginning of the project is found in the improvement of a commercial sine wave three phase inverter which is based in a study about optimal excitation techniques to IGBTs which compose in the power stage. In the early phases of project it is proposed a much more ambitious idea, the fact of a new emergency converter, proposed for the rail sector to work in an air condition unit. This converter is formed by an association of a block cascaded DC/DC booster and a block DC/AC inverter three-phase controlled by a sine wave modulation PWM. The purposed was to give a solution to following problems detected in commercial converters nowadays: an excessively oversized block boost, independent control subsystems for two blocks that configure the converter. In addition, driver board is redesigned with each specifications change demand it a new customer, and finally, the communications, diagnostic and maintenance that needed a important upgrade. Initially, it has been performed a theoretical study of boost and the inverter blocks to be able to perform the component’s design and the size (semiconductor and electromagnetic fields). Once finished power study, it is analysed the control performed using direct measures and simulation of boost control strategy and inverter. With this it is obtained complete information about existing cards functionality. The project is looking for the design of just one controller card and one drivers´ card for both blocks. By unrelated problems, during the course of this project a commercial realization. So at least its decided to create control board to be able to existing converter, replacing boost block’s control board. To be able to manufacture control board it is divided in two cards connected in sandwiching mode. In a card is microcontroller and in another is all needed interface to operate with the system: digital inputs and outputs, analogical inputs and outputs, CAN communication, and a small DC / DC business that provide power supply to the prototype. It is performed a small functional program to handle the converter, which with an input voltage 110V DC provides an output voltage 380V AC. As already has been exposed, due to industrial project cancellation it is decided no to continue with all improvements and directly to evaluate it in the current phase.

A unified framework for linear function approximation of value functions in stochastic control

This paper contributes with a unified formulation that merges previ- ous analysis on the prediction of the performance ( value function ) of certain sequence of actions ( policy ) when an agent operates a Markov decision process with large state-space. When the states are represented by features and the value function is linearly approxi- mated, our analysis reveals a new relationship between two common cost functions used to obtain the optimal approximation. In addition, this analysis allows us to propose an efficient adaptive algorithm that provides an unbiased linear estimate. The performance of the pro- posed algorithm is illustrated by simulation, showing competitive results when compared with the state-of-the-art solutions.

Risk-based methodology for parameter calibration of a reservoir flood control model

Flash floods are of major relevance in natural disaster management in the Mediterranean region. In many cases, the damaging effects of flash floods can be mitigated by adequate management of flood control reservoirs. This requires the development of suitable models for optimal operation of reservoirs. A probabilistic methodology for calibrating the parameters of a reservoir flood control model (RFCM) that takes into account the stochastic variability of flood events is presented. This study addresses the crucial problem of operating reservoirs during flood events, considering downstream river damages and dam failure risk as conflicting operation criteria. These two criteria are aggregated into a single objective of total expected damages from both the maximum released flows and stored volumes (overall risk index). For each selected parameter set the RFCM is run under a wide range of hydrologic loads (determined through Monte Carlo simulation). The optimal parameter set is obtained through the overall risk index (balanced solution) and then compared with other solutions of the Pareto front. The proposed methodology is implemented at three different reservoirs in the southeast of Spain. The results obtained show that the balanced solution offers a good compromise between the two main objectives of reservoir flood control management

Leakage and temperature aware server control for improving energy efficiency in data centers

Reducing the energy consumption for computation and cooling in servers is a major challenge considering the data center energy costs today. To ensure energy-efficient operation of servers in data centers, the relationship among computa- tional power, temperature, leakage, and cooling power needs to be analyzed. By means of an innovative setup that enables monitoring and controlling the computing and cooling power consumption separately on a commercial enterprise server, this paper studies temperature-leakage-energy tradeoffs, obtaining an empirical model for the leakage component. Using this model, we design a controller that continuously seeks and settles at the optimal fan speed to minimize the energy consumption for a given workload. We run a customized dynamic load-synthesis tool to stress the system. Our proposed cooling controller achieves up to 9% energy savings and 30W reduction in peak power in comparison to the default cooling control scheme.

Contributions to trajectory prediction theory and its application to arrival management for air traffic control

La gestión del tráfico aéreo (Air Traffic Management, ATM) está experimentando un cambio de paradigma hacia las denominadas operaciones basadas trayectoria. Bajo dicho paradigma se modifica el papel de los controladores de tráfico aéreo desde una operativa basada su intervención táctica continuada hacia una labor de supervisión a más largo plazo. Esto se apoya en la creciente confianza en las soluciones aportadas por las herramientas automatizadas de soporte a la decisión más modernas. Para dar soporte a este concepto, se precisa una importante inversión para el desarrollo, junto con la adquisición de nuevos equipos en tierra y embarcados, que permitan la sincronización precisa de la visión de la trayectoria, basada en el intercambio de información entre ambos actores. Durante los últimos 30 a 40 años las aerolíneas han generado uno de los menores retornos de la inversión de entre todas las industrias. Sin beneficios tangibles, la industria aérea tiene dificultades para atraer el capital requerido para su modernización, lo que retrasa la implantación de dichas mejoras. Esta tesis tiene como objetivo responder a la pregunta de si las capacidades actualmente instaladas en las aeronaves comerciales se pueden aplicar para lograr la sincronización de la trayectoria con el nivel de calidad requerido. Además, se analiza en ella si, conjuntamente con mejoras en las herramientas de predicción trayectorias instaladas en tierra en para facilitar la gestión de las arribadas, dichas capacidades permiten obtener los beneficios esperados en el marco de las operaciones basadas en trayectoria. Esto podría proporcionar un incentivo para futuras actualizaciones de la aviónica que podrían llevar a mejoras adicionales. El concepto operacional propuesto en esta tesis tiene como objetivo permitir que los aviones sean pilotados de una manera consistente con las técnicas actuales de vuelo optimizado. Se permite a las aeronaves que desciendan en el denominado “modo de ángulo de descenso gestionado” (path-managed mode), que es el preferido por la mayoría de las compañías aéreas, debido a que conlleva un reducido consumo de combustible. El problema de este modo es que en él no se controla de forma activa el tiempo de llegada al punto de interés. En nuestro concepto operacional, la incertidumbre temporal se gestiona en mediante de la medición del tiempo en puntos estratégicamente escogidos a lo largo de la trayectoria de la aeronave, y permitiendo la modificación por el control de tierra de la velocidad de la aeronave. Aunque la base del concepto es la gestión de las ordenes de velocidad que se proporcionan al piloto, para ser capaces de operar con los niveles de equipamiento típicos actualmente, dicho concepto también constituye un marco en el que la aviónica más avanzada (por ejemplo, que permita el control por el FMS del tiempo de llegada) puede integrarse de forma natural, una vez que esta tecnología este instalada. Además de gestionar la incertidumbre temporal a través de la medición en múltiples puntos, se intenta reducir dicha incertidumbre al mínimo mediante la mejora de las herramienta de predicción de la trayectoria en tierra. En esta tesis se presenta una novedosa descomposición del proceso de predicción de trayectorias en dos etapas. Dicha descomposición permite integrar adecuadamente los datos de la trayectoria de referencia calculada por el Flight Management System (FMS), disponibles usando Futuro Sistema de Navegación Aérea (FANS), en el sistema de predicción de trayectorias en tierra. FANS es un equipo presente en los aviones comerciales de fuselaje ancho actualmente en la producción, e incluso algunos aviones de fuselaje estrecho pueden tener instalada avionica FANS. Además de informar automáticamente de la posición de la aeronave, FANS permite proporcionar (parte de) la trayectoria de referencia en poder de los FMS, pero la explotación de esta capacidad para la mejora de la predicción de trayectorias no se ha estudiado en profundidad en el pasado. La predicción en dos etapas proporciona una solución adecuada al problema de sincronización de trayectorias aire-tierra dado que permite la sincronización de las dimensiones controladas por el sistema de guiado utilizando la información de la trayectoria de referencia proporcionada mediante FANS, y también facilita la mejora en la predicción de las dimensiones abiertas restantes usado un modelo del guiado que explota los modelos meteorológicos mejorados disponibles en tierra. Este proceso de predicción de la trayectoria de dos etapas se aplicó a una muestra de 438 vuelos reales que realizaron un descenso continuo (sin intervención del controlador) con destino Melbourne. Dichos vuelos son de aeronaves del modelo Boeing 737-800, si bien la metodología descrita es extrapolable a otros tipos de aeronave. El método propuesto de predicción de trayectorias permite una mejora en la desviación estándar del error de la estimación del tiempo de llegada al punto de interés, que es un 30% menor que la que obtiene el FMS. Dicha trayectoria prevista mejorada se puede utilizar para establecer la secuencia de arribadas y para la asignación de las franjas horarias para cada aterrizaje (slots). Sobre la base del slot asignado, se determina un perfil de velocidades que permita cumplir con dicho slot con un impacto mínimo en la eficiencia del vuelo. En la tesis se propone un nuevo algoritmo que determina las velocidades requeridas sin necesidad de un proceso iterativo de búsqueda sobre el sistema de predicción de trayectorias. El algoritmo se basa en una parametrización inteligente del proceso de predicción de la trayectoria, que permite relacionar el tiempo estimado de llegada con una función polinómica. Resolviendo dicho polinomio para el tiempo de llegada deseado, se obtiene de forma natural el perfil de velocidades optimo para cumplir con dicho tiempo de llegada sin comprometer la eficiencia. El diseño de los sistemas de gestión de arribadas propuesto en esta tesis aprovecha la aviónica y los sistemas de comunicación instalados de un modo mucho más eficiente, proporcionando valor añadido para la industria. Por tanto, la solución es compatible con la transición hacia los sistemas de aviónica avanzados que están desarrollándose actualmente. Los beneficios que se obtengan a lo largo de dicha transición son un incentivo para inversiones subsiguientes en la aviónica y en los sistemas de control de tráfico en tierra. ABSTRACT Air traffic management (ATM) is undergoing a paradigm shift towards trajectory based operations where the role of an air traffic controller evolves from that of continuous intervention towards supervision, as decision making is improved based on increased confidence in the solutions provided by advanced automation. To support this concept, significant investment for the development and acquisition of new equipment is required on the ground as well as in the air, to facilitate the high degree of trajectory synchronisation and information exchange required. Over the past 30-40 years the airline industry has generated one of the lowest returns on invested capital among all industries. Without tangible benefits realised, the airline industry may find it difficult to attract the required investment capital and delay acquiring equipment needed to realise the concept of trajectory based operations. In response to these challenges facing the modernisation of ATM, this thesis aims to answer the question whether existing aircraft capabilities can be applied to achieve sufficient trajectory synchronisation and improvements to ground-based trajectory prediction in support of the arrival management process, to realise some of the benefits envisioned under trajectory based operations, and to provide an incentive for further avionics upgrades. The proposed operational concept aims to permit aircraft to operate in a manner consistent with current optimal aircraft operating techniques. It allows aircraft to descend in the fuel efficient path managed mode as preferred by a majority of airlines, with arrival time not actively controlled by the airborne automation. The temporal uncertainty is managed through metering at strategically chosen points along the aircraft’s trajectory with primary use of speed advisories. While the focus is on speed advisories to support all aircraft and different levels of equipage, the concept also constitutes a framework in which advanced avionics as airborne time-of-arrival control can be integrated once this technology is widely available. In addition to managing temporal uncertainty through metering at multiple points, this temporal uncertainty is minimised by improving the supporting trajectory prediction capability. A novel two-stage trajectory prediction process is presented to adequately integrate aircraft trajectory data available through Future Air Navigation Systems (FANS) into the ground-based trajectory predictor. FANS is standard equipment on any wide-body aircraft in production today, and some single-aisle aircraft are easily capable of being fitted with FANS. In addition to automatic position reporting, FANS provides the ability to provide (part of) the reference trajectory held by the aircraft’s Flight Management System (FMS), but this capability has yet been widely overlooked. The two-stage process provides a ‘best of both world’s’ solution to the air-ground synchronisation problem by synchronising with the FMS reference trajectory those dimensions controlled by the guidance mode, and improving on the prediction of the remaining open dimensions by exploiting the high resolution meteorological forecast available to a ground-based system. The two-stage trajectory prediction process was applied to a sample of 438 FANS-equipped Boeing 737-800 flights into Melbourne conducting a continuous descent free from ATC intervention, and can be extrapolated to other types of aircraft. Trajectories predicted through the two-stage approach provided estimated time of arrivals with a 30% reduction in standard deviation of the error compared to estimated time of arrival calculated by the FMS. This improved predicted trajectory can subsequently be used to set the sequence and allocate landing slots. Based on the allocated landing slot, the proposed system calculates a speed schedule for the aircraft to meet this landing slot at minimal flight efficiency impact. A novel algorithm is presented that determines this speed schedule without requiring an iterative process in which multiple calls to a trajectory predictor need to be made. The algorithm is based on parameterisation of the trajectory prediction process, allowing the estimate time of arrival to be represented by a polynomial function of the speed schedule, providing an analytical solution to the speed schedule required to meet a set arrival time. The arrival management solution proposed in this thesis leverages the use of existing avionics and communications systems resulting in new value for industry for current investment. The solution therefore supports a transition concept from mixed equipage towards advanced avionics currently under development. Benefits realised under this transition may provide an incentive for ongoing investment in avionics.

Optimal Piecewise Linear Function Approximation for GPU-based Applications

Many computer vision and human-computer interaction applications developed in recent years need evaluating complex and continuous mathematical functions as an essential step toward proper operation. However, rigorous evaluation of this kind of functions often implies a very high computational cost, unacceptable in real-time applications. To alleviate this problem, functions are commonly approximated by simpler piecewise-polynomial representations. Following this idea, we propose a novel, efficient, and practical technique to evaluate complex and continuous functions using a nearly optimal design of two types of piecewise linear approximations in the case of a large budget of evaluation subintervals. To this end, we develop a thorough error analysis that yields asymptotically tight bounds to accurately quantify the approximation performance of both representations. It provides an improvement upon previous error estimates and allows the user to control the trade-off between the approximation error and the number of evaluation subintervals. To guarantee real-time operation, the method is suitable for, but not limited to, an efficient implementation in modern Graphics Processing Units (GPUs), where it outperforms previous alternative approaches by exploiting the fixed-function interpolation routines present in their texture units. The proposed technique is a perfect match for any application requiring the evaluation of continuous functions, we have measured in detail its quality and efficiency on several functions, and, in particular, the Gaussian function because it is extensively used in many areas of computer vision and cybernetics, and it is expensive to evaluate.