Prediction of 30-day mortality in older patients with a first acute myocardial infarction

This study sought predictors of mortality in patients aged >or=75 years with a first ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and evaluated the validity of the GUSTO-I and TIMI risk models. Clinical variables, treatment and mortality data from 433 consecutive patients were collected. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were applied to identify baseline factors associated with 30-day mortality. Subsequently a model predicting 30-day mortality was created and compared with the performance of the GUSTO-I and TIMI models. After adjustment, a higher Killip class was the most important predictor (OR 16.1; 95% CI 5.7-45.6). Elevated heart rate, longer time delay to admission, hyperglycemia and older age were also associated with increased risk. Patients with hypercholesterolemia had a significantly lower risk (OR 0.46; 95% CI 0.24-0.86). Discrimination (c-statistic 0.79, 95% CI 0.75-0.84) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow 6, p = 0.5) of our model were good. The GUSTO-I and TIMI risk scores produced adequate discrimination within our dataset (c-statistic 0.76, 95% CI 0.71-0.81, and c-statistic 0.77, 95% CI 0.72-0.82, respectively), but calibration was not satisfactory (HL 21.8, p = 0.005 for GUSTO-I, and HL 20.6, p = 0.008 for TIMI). In conclusion, short-term mortality in elderly patients with a first STEMI depends most importantly on initial clinical and hemodynamic status. The GUSTO-I and TIMI models are insufficiently adequate for providing an exact estimate of 30-day mortality risk.

Interactive support effects on career agency and occupational engagement among young adults.

The PIC model by Gati and Asher describes three career decision making stages: pre-screening, in-depth exploration, and choice of career options. We consider the role that three different forms of support (general career support by parents, emotional/instrumental support, and informational support) may play for young adults in each of these three decision-making stages. The authors further propose that different forms of support may predict career agency and occupational engagement, which are important career decision precedents. In addition, we consider the role of personality traits and perceptions (decision-making window) on these two outcomes. Using an online survey sample (N = 281), we found that general career support was important for career agency and occupational engagement. However, it was the combination of higher general career support with either emotional/instrumental support or informational support that was found to lead to both greater career agency and higher occupational engagement. Personality also played a role: Greater proactivity also led to greater occupational engagement, even when there was little urgency for participants to make decisions (window of decision-making was wide open and not restricted). In practical terms, the findings suggest that the learning required in each of the three PIC processes (pre-screening, in-depth exploration, choice of career options may benefit when the learner has access to the three support measures.

Volcanic air pollution and mortality in France 1783?1784

Grattan J.P., Rabartin, R., Self, S. & Thordarson, Th. 2005. Volcanic air pollution and mortality in France 1783-84. Comptes Rendu Geosciences. 641-651 This item is available in both English and French in the PDF file.

Illness and elevated Human Mortality in Europe Coincident with the Laki Fissure eruption

Grattan, J. Durand, M. Taylor, S., Illness and elevated Human Mortality in Europe Coincident with the Laki fissure eruption. In: 'Volcanic Degassing: Geological Society, Special Publication 213', Oppenheimer, C., Pyle, D.M. and Barclay, J. (eds). Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 410-414, 2003.

Urinary naphthalene and phenanthrene as biomarkers of occupational exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.

OBJECTIVES: The study investigated the utility of unmetabolised naphthalene (Nap) and phenanthrene (Phe) in urine as surrogates for exposures to mixtures of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). METHODS: The report included workers exposed to diesel exhausts (low PAH exposure level, n = 39) as well as those exposed to emissions from asphalt (medium PAH exposure level, n = 26) and coke ovens (high PAH exposure level, n = 28). Levels of Nap and Phe were measured in urine from each subject using head space-solid phase microextraction and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Published levels of airborne Nap, Phe and other PAHs in the coke-producing and aluminium industries were also investigated. RESULTS: In post-shift urine, the highest estimated geometric mean concentrations of Nap and Phe were observed in coke-oven workers (Nap: 2490 ng/l; Phe: 975 ng/l), followed by asphalt workers (Nap: 71.5 ng/l; Phe: 54.3 ng/l), and by diesel-exposed workers (Nap: 17.7 ng/l; Phe: 3.60 ng/l). After subtracting logged background levels of Nap and Phe from the logged post-shift levels of these PAHs in urine, the resulting values (referred to as ln(adjNap) and ln(adjPhe), respectively) were significantly correlated in each group of workers (0.71 < or = Pearson r < or = 0.89), suggesting a common exposure source in each case. Surprisingly, multiple linear regression analysis of ln(adjNap) on ln(adjPhe) showed no significant effect of the source of exposure (coke ovens, asphalt and diesel exhaust) and further suggested that the ratio of urinary Nap/Phe (in natural scale) decreased with increasing exposure levels. These results were corroborated with published data for airborne Nap and Phe in the coke-producing and aluminium industries. The published air measurements also indicated that Nap and Phe levels were proportional to the levels of all combined PAHs in those industries. CONCLUSION: Levels of Nap and Phe in urine reflect airborne exposures to these compounds and are promising surrogates for occupational exposures to PAH mixtures.

Occupational lead neurotoxicity: A behavioural and electrophysiological evaluation. study design and year one results.

To evaluate the effects of chronic lead exposure on the nervous system in adults, a set of neurobehavioural and electrophysiological tests was administered to 99 lead exposed foundry employees and 61 unexposed workers. Current and past blood lead concentrations were used to estimate the degree of lead absorption; all previous blood lead concentrations had been less than or equal to 90 micrograms/100 ml. Characteristic signs (such as wrist extensor weakness) or symptoms (such as colic) of lead poisoning were not seen. Sensory conduction in the sural nerve was not affected. By contrast, various neurobehavioural functions deteriorated with increasing lead burden. Workers with blood lead concentrations between 40 and 60 micrograms/100 ml showed impaired performance on tests of verbal concept formation, visual/motor performance, memory, and mood. Thus impairment in central nervous system function in lead exposed adults occurred in the absence of peripheral nervous system derangement and increased in severity with increasing lead dose.

Occupational lead neurotoxicity: Improvement in behavioural effects after reduction of exposure.

To evaluate critical exposure levels and the reversibility of lead neurotoxicity a group of lead exposed foundry workers and an unexposed reference population were followed up for three years. During this period, tests designed to monitor neurobehavioural function and lead dose were administered. Evaluations of 160 workers during the first year showed dose dependent decrements in mood, visual/motor performance, memory, and verbal concept formation. Subsequently, an improvement in the hygienic conditions at the plant resulted in striking reductions in blood lead concentrations over the following two years. Attendant improvement in indices of tension (20% reduction), anger (18%), depression (26%), fatigue (27%), and confusion (13%) was observed. Performance on neurobehavioural testing generally correlated best with integrated dose estimates derived from blood lead concentrations measured periodically over the study period; zinc protoporphyrin levels were less well correlated with function. This investigation confirms the importance of compliance with workplace standards designed to lower exposures to ensure that individual blood lead concentrations remain below 50 micrograms/dl.

The meaning of environmental control systems (ECS) for people with spinal cord injury: An occupational therapist explores an intervention

Environmental Control Systems (ECS), enable people with high cervical Spinal Cord Injury (high SCI) to control and access everyday electronic devices. In Ireland, however, access for those who might benefit from ECS is limited. This study used a qualitative approach to explore the insider experience of an ECS starter-pack developed by the author, an occupational therapist. The primary research questions: what is it really like to live with ECS, and what does it mean to live with ECS, were explored using a phenomenological methodology conducted in three phases. In Phase 1 fifteen people with high SCI met twice in four focus groups to discuss experiences and expectations of ECS. Thematic analysis (Krueger & Casey, 2000), influenced by the psychological phenomenological approach (Creswell, 1998), yielded three categories of rich, practical, phenomenological findings: ECS Usage and utility; ECS Expectations and The meaning of living with ECS. Phase 1 findings informed Phase 2 which consisted of the development of a generic electronic assistive technology pack (GrEAT) that included commercially available constituents as well as short instructional videos and an information booklet. This second phase culminated in a one-person, three-week pilot trial. Phase 3 involved a six person, 8-week trial of the GrEAT, followed by individual in-depth interviews. Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis IPA (Smith, Larkin & Flowers, 2009), aided by computer software ATLAS.ti and iMindmap, guided data analysis and identification of themes. Getting used to ECS, experienced as both a hassle and engaging, resulted in participants being able to Take back a little of what you have lost, which involved both feeling enabled and reclaiming a little doing. The findings of this study provide substantial insights into what it is like to live with ECS and the meanings attributed to that experience. Several practical, real world implications are discussed.

Mainstream technology as an occupational therapy tool: technophobe or technogeek?

Occupational therapists need to embrace the use of mainstream technology in their quest to ensure that therapy remains current and meaningful to their clients. Technology can be useful to improve both functional independence and occupational performance. This opinion piece introduces how occupational therapists can apply mainstream technologies, including information and communication technologies such as the internet, computer software, portable devices and computer games, in their everyday interventions.

Irish occupational therapists' views of electronic assistive technology

Introduction: Electronic assistive technology (EAT) includes computers, environmental control systems and information technology systems and is widely considered to be an important part of present-day life. Method: Fifty-six Irish community occupational therapists completed a questionnaire on EAT. All surveyed were able to identify the benefits of EAT. Results: While respondents reported that they should be able to assess for and prescribe EATs, only a third (19) were able to do so, and half (28) had not been able to do so in the past. Community occupational therapists identified themselves as havinga role in a multidisciplinary team to assess for and prescribe EAT. Conclusion: Results suggest that it is important for occupational therapists to have up-to-date knowledge and training in assistive and computer technologies in order to respond to the occupational needs of clients.

Health of the older worker in Ireland - occupational physical and psychosocial factors in the autumn of work life

Introduction: Worldwide, governments are striving to keep people in work to an older age. However, little is known about the effects of work on an older workforce. This thesis aims to investigate the importance of job characteristics to the antecedents and evolution of cardiovascular disease and functional limitations for the older worker (50+ years). Methods: Three studies were used in this thesis. The 5C (Cork Coronary Care Case- Control) Study investigated the association between job strain and a coronary event in males (n=208) 35-74 years old. The Mitchelstown Study examined the association between job characteristics and positive lifestyle behaviours and further, job characteristics and blood pressure for males and females 50-69 years (n=2,047). Finally, the Cork & Kerry Study investigated the physical effects of manual work and reported functional limitations/disabilities in a sample of 60-80 year olds (n=362). Results: Results from the 5C Study show a clear difference between younger (<50 years) and older (≥50 years) workers, with older workers who had a coronary event more likely to have high job strain and low job control. Data from the Mitchelstown Study showed workers with intermediate possibility for development or high quantitative demands (versus low) at work significantly more likely to have co-occurrence of positive lifestyle behaviours. Further, those who had high possibility for development were more likely to have high systolic blood pressure with no indication of recovery from this activation at night. Physically demanding work as reported by the participants of the Cork & Kerry Study was associated with functional limitations and activities of daily living disability for both the paid and unpaid worker. Discussion: The findings from this piece of work highlight the necessity to examine job characteristics and health outcomes in isolation for the over fifties. The challenge is to get this information into the workplace.

Survival expectations of the obese: Is excess mortality reflected in perceptions?

OBJECTIVE: This study compared self-reported subjective life expectancy (i.e., probability of living to age 75) for normal-weight, overweight, and obese weight groups to examine whether individuals are internalizing information about the health risks due to excessive weight. RESEARCH METHODS AND PROCEDURES: Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, a total of 9035 individuals 51 to 61 years old were analyzed by BMI category. The primary outcome measure was individuals' reports about their own expectations of survival to age 75. Absolute and relative risks of survival were compared with published estimates of survival to age 75. RESULTS: Consistently, higher levels of BMI were associated with lower self-estimated survival probabilities. Differences relative to normal weight ranged from 4.9% (p < 0.01) for male nonsmokers to 8.8% (p < 0.001) for female nonsmokers. However, these differences were substantially less than those obtained from published survival curve estimates, suggesting that obese individuals tended to underestimate mortality risks. DISCUSSION: Individuals appeared to underestimate the mortality risks of excessive weight; thus, knowledge campaigns about the risks of obesity should remain a top priority.

Factors associated with mortality in transplant patients with invasive aspergillosis.

BACKGROUND: Invasive aspergillosis (IA) is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) and solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients. The purpose of this study was to evaluate factors associated with mortality in transplant patients with IA. METHODS: Transplant patients from 23 US centers were enrolled from March 2001 to October 2005 as part of the Transplant Associated Infection Surveillance Network. IA cases were identified prospectively in this cohort through March 2006, and data were collected. Factors associated with 12-week all-cause mortality were determined by logistic regression analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: Six-hundred forty-two cases of proven or probable IA were evaluated, of which 317 (49.4%) died by the study endpoint. All-cause mortality was greater in HSCT patients (239 [57.5%] of 415) than in SOT patients (78 [34.4%] of 227; P<.001). Independent poor prognostic factors in HSCT patients were neutropenia, renal insufficiency, hepatic insufficiency, early-onset IA, proven IA, and methylprednisolone use. In contrast, white race was associated with decreased risk of death. Among SOT patients, hepatic insufficiency, malnutrition, and central nervous system disease were poor prognostic indicators, whereas prednisone use was associated with decreased risk of death. Among HSCT or SOT patients who received antifungal therapy, use of an amphotericin B preparation as part of initial therapy was associated with increased risk of death. CONCLUSIONS: There are multiple variables associated with survival in transplant patients with IA. Understanding these prognostic factors may assist in the development of treatment algorithms and clinical trials.

Ventricular conduction and long-term heart failure outcomes and mortality in African Americans: insights from the Jackson Heart Study.

BACKGROUND: QRS prolongation is associated with adverse outcomes in mostly white populations, but its clinical significance is not well established for other groups. We investigated the association between QRS duration and mortality in African Americans. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed data from 5146 African Americans in the Jackson Heart Study stratified by QRS duration on baseline 12-lead ECG. We defined QRS prolongation as QRS≥100 ms. We assessed the association between QRS duration and all-cause mortality using Cox proportional hazards models and reported the cumulative incidence of heart failure hospitalization. We identified factors associated with the development of QRS prolongation in patients with normal baseline QRS. At baseline, 30% (n=1528) of participants had QRS prolongation. The cumulative incidences of mortality and heart failure hospitalization were greater with versus without baseline QRS prolongation: 12.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 11.0-14.4) versus 7.1% (95% CI, 6.3-8.0) and 8.2% (95% CI, 6.9-9.7) versus 4.4% (95% CI, 3.7-5.1), respectively. After risk adjustment, QRS prolongation was associated with increased mortality (hazard ratio, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.03-1.56; P=0.02). There was a linear relationship between QRS duration and mortality (hazard ratio per 10 ms increase, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.01-1.12). Older age, male sex, prior myocardial infarction, lower ejection fraction, left ventricular hypertrophy, and left ventricular dilatation were associated with the development of QRS prolongation. CONCLUSIONS: QRS prolongation in African Americans was associated with increased mortality and heart failure hospitalization. Factors associated with developing QRS prolongation included age, male sex, prior myocardial infarction, and left ventricular structural abnormalities.

Platelet Counts, Acute Kidney Injury, and Mortality after Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting Surgery.

BACKGROUND: Cardiac surgery requiring cardiopulmonary bypass is associated with platelet activation. Because platelets are increasingly recognized as important effectors of ischemia and end-organ inflammatory injury, the authors explored whether postoperative nadir platelet counts are associated with acute kidney injury (AKI) and mortality after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) surgery. METHODS: The authors evaluated 4,217 adult patients who underwent CABG surgery. Postoperative nadir platelet counts were defined as the lowest in-hospital values and were used as a continuous predictor of postoperative AKI and mortality. Nadir values in the lowest 10th percentile were also used as a categorical predictor. Multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard models examined the association between postoperative platelet counts, postoperative AKI, and mortality. RESULTS: The median postoperative nadir platelet count was 121 × 10/l. The incidence of postoperative AKI was 54%, including 9.5% (215 patients) and 3.4% (76 patients) who experienced stages II and III AKI, respectively. For every 30 × 10/l decrease in platelet counts, the risk for postoperative AKI increased by 14% (adjusted odds ratio, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.20; P < 0.0001). Patients with platelet counts in the lowest 10th percentile were three times more likely to progress to a higher severity of postoperative AKI (adjusted proportional odds ratio, 3.04; 95% CI, 2.26 to 4.07; P < 0.0001) and had associated increased risk for mortality immediately after surgery (adjusted hazard ratio, 5.46; 95% CI, 3.79 to 7.89; P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: The authors found a significant association between postoperative nadir platelet counts and AKI and short-term mortality after CABG surgery.