The surface urban energy and water balance scheme (SUEWS): evaluation in Los Angeles and Vancouver

An urban energy and water balance model is presented which uses a small number of commonly measured meteorological variables and information about the surface cover. Rates of evaporation-interception for a single layer with multiple surface types (paved, buildings, coniferous trees and/or shrubs, deciduous trees and/or shrubs, irrigated grass, non-irrigated grass and water) are calculated. Below each surface type, except water, there is a single soil layer. At each time step the moisture state of each surface is calculated. Horizontal water movements at the surface and in the soil are incorporated. Particular attention is given to the surface conductance used to model evaporation and its parameters. The model is tested against direct flux measurements carried out over a number of years in Vancouver, Canada and Los Angeles, USA. At all measurement sites the model is able to simulate the net all-wave radiation and turbulent sensible and latent heat well (RMSE = 25–47 W m−2, 30–64 and 20–56 W m−2, respectively). The model reproduces the diurnal cycle of the turbulent fluxes but typically underestimates latent heat flux and overestimates sensible heat flux in the day time. The model tracks measured surface wetness and simulates the variations in soil moisture content. It is able to respond correctly to short-term events as well as annual changes. The largest uncertainty relates to the determination of surface conductance. The model has the potential be used for multiple applications; for example, to predict effects of regulation on urban water use, landscaping and planning scenarios, or to assess climate mitigation strategies.

Evaluation of ECMWF medium-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation for river basins

Providing probabilistic forecasts using Ensemble Prediction Systems has become increasingly popular in both the meteorological and hydrological communities. Compared to conventional deterministic forecasts, probabilistic forecasts may provide more reliable forecasts of a few hours to a number of days ahead, and hence are regarded as better tools for taking uncertainties into consideration and hedging against weather risks. It is essential to evaluate performance of raw ensemble forecasts and their potential values in forecasting extreme hydro-meteorological events. This study evaluates ECMWF’s medium-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation over the period 2008/01/01-2012/09/30 on a selected mid-latitude large scale river basin, the Huai river basin (ca. 270,000 km2) in central-east China. The evaluation unit is sub-basin in order to consider forecast performance in a hydrologically relevant way. The study finds that forecast performance varies with sub-basin properties, between flooding and non-flooding seasons, and with the forecast properties of aggregated time steps and lead times. Although the study does not evaluate any hydrological applications of the ensemble precipitation forecasts, its results have direct implications in hydrological forecasts should these ensemble precipitation forecasts be employed in hydrology.

On SETAR non-linearity and forecasting

We compare linear autoregressive (AR) models and self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) models in terms of their point forecast performance, and their ability to characterize the uncertainty surrounding those forecasts, i.e. interval or density forecasts. A two-regime SETAR process is used as the data-generating process in an extensive set of Monte Carlo simulations, and we consider the discriminatory power of recently developed methods of forecast evaluation for different degrees of non-linearity. We find that the interval and density evaluation methods are unlikely to show the linear model to be deficient on samples of the size typical for macroeconomic data

Forecasting economic and financial time series with non-linear models

In this paper we discuss the current state-of-the-art in estimating, evaluating, and selecting among non-linear forecasting models for economic and financial time series. We review theoretical and empirical issues, including predictive density, interval and point evaluation and model selection, loss functions, data-mining, and aggregation. In addition, we argue that although the evidence in favor of constructing forecasts using non-linear models is rather sparse, there is reason to be optimistic. However, much remains to be done. Finally, we outline a variety of topics for future research, and discuss a number of areas which have received considerable attention in the recent literature, but where many questions remain.

Evaluation of water properties in HEA–HEMA hydrogels swollen in aqueous-PEG solutions using thermoanalytical techniques

Hydrogels are polymeric materials used in many pharmaceutical and biomedical applications due to their ability to form 3D hydrophilic polymeric networks, which can absorb large amounts of water. In the present work, polyethylene glycols (PEG) were introduced into the hydrogel liquid phase in order to improve the mechanical properties of hydrogels composed of 2-hydroxyethylacrylate and 2-hydroxyethylmethacrylate (HEA–HEMA) synthesized with different co-monomer compositions and equilibrated in water or in 20 % water–PEG 400 and 600 solutions. The thermoanalytical techniques [differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and thermogravimetry (TG)] were used to evaluate the amount and properties of free and bound water in HEA–HEMA hydrogels. The internal structure and the mechanical properties of hydrogels were studied using scanning electron microscopy and friability assay. TG “loss-on-drying” experiments were applied to study the water-retention properties of hydrogels, whereas the combination of TG and DSC allowed estimating the total amount of freezable and non-freezing water in hydrogels. The results show that the addition of viscous co-solvent (PEG) to the liquid medium results in significant improvement of the mechanical properties of HEA–HEMA hydrogels and also slightly retards the water loss from the hydrogels. A redistribution of free and bound water in the hydrogels equilibrated in mixed solutions containing 20 vol% of PEGs takes place.

The representation of the West-African Monsoon vertical cloud structure in the Met Office Unified Model: an evaluation with CloudSat

Weather and climate model simulations of the West African Monsoon (WAM) have generally poor representation of the rainfall distribution and monsoon circulation because key processes, such as clouds and convection, are poorly characterized. The vertical distribution of cloud and precipitation during the WAM are evaluated in Met Office Unified Model simulations against CloudSat observations. Simulations were run at 40-km and 12-km horizontal grid length using a convection parameterization scheme and at 12-km, 4-km, and 1.5-km grid length with the convection scheme effectively switched off, to study the impact of model resolution and convection parameterization scheme on the organisation of tropical convection. Radar reflectivity is forward-modelled from the model cloud fields using the CloudSat simulator to present a like-with-like comparison with the CloudSat radar observations. The representation of cloud and precipitation at 12-km horizontal grid length improves dramatically when the convection parameterization is switched off, primarily because of a reduction in daytime (moist) convection. Further improvement is obtained when reducing model grid length to 4 km or 1.5 km, especially in the representation of thin anvil and mid-level cloud, but three issues remain in all model configurations. Firstly, all simulations underestimate the fraction of anvils with cloud top height above 12 km, which can be attributed to too low ice water contents in the model compared to satellite retrievals. Secondly, the model consistently detrains mid-level cloud too close to the freezing level, compared to higher altitudes in CloudSat observations. Finally, there is too much low-level cloud cover in all simulations and this bias was not improved when adjusting the rainfall parameters in the microphysics scheme. To improve model simulations of the WAM, more detailed and in-situ observations of the dynamics and microphysics targeting these non-precipitating cloud types are required.

Prediction of metabolisable energy concentrations of fresh cut grass using digestibility data measured with non-pregnant non-lactating cows

Pasture-based ruminant production systems are common in certain areas of the world, but energy evaluation in grazing cattle is performed with equations developed, in their majority, with sheep or cattle fed total mixed rations. The aim of the current study was to develop predictions of metabolisable energy (ME) concentrations in fresh-cut grass offered to non-pregnant non-lactating cows at maintenance energy level, which may be more suitable for grazing cattle. Data were collected from three digestibility trials performed over consecutive grazing seasons. In order to cover a range of commercial conditions and data availability in pasture-based systems, thirty-eight equations for the prediction of energy concentrations and ratios were developed. An internal validation was performed for all equations and also for existing predictions of grass ME. Prediction error for ME using nutrient digestibility was lowest when gross energy (GE) or organic matter digestibilities were used as sole predictors, while the addition of grass nutrient contents reduced the difference between predicted and actual values, and explained more variation. Addition of N, GE and diethyl ether extract (EE) contents improved accuracy when digestible organic matter in DM was the primary predictor. When digestible energy was the primary explanatory variable, prediction error was relatively low, but addition of water-soluble carbohydrates, EE and acid-detergent fibre contents of grass decreased prediction error. Equations developed in the current study showed lower prediction errors when compared with those of existing equations, and may thus allow for an improved prediction of ME in practice, which is critical for the sustainability of pasture-based systems.

Evaluation of the realism of climate reconstruction using the Coexistence Approach with modern pollen samples from the Tibetan Plateau

We apply the Coexistence Approach (CoA) to reconstruct mean annual precipitation (MAP), mean annual temperature (MAT), mean temperature of thewarmestmonth (MTWA) and mean temperature of the coldest month (MTCO) at 44 pollen sites on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau. The modern climate ranges of the taxa are obtained (1) from county-level presence/absence data and (2) from data on the optimum and range of each taxon from Lu et al. (2011). The CoA based on the optimumand range data yields better predictions of observed climate parameters at the pollen sites than that based on the county-level data. The presence of arboreal pollen, most of which is derived fromoutside the region, distorts the reconstructions. More reliable reconstructions are obtained using only the non-arboreal component of the pollen assemblages. The root mean-squared error (RMSE) of the MAP reconstructions are smaller than the RMSE of MAT, MTWA and MTCO, suggesting that precipitation gradients are the most important control of vegetation distribution on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau. Our results show that CoA could be used to reconstruct past climates in this region, although in areas characterized by open vegetation the most reliable estimates will be obtained by excluding possible arboreal contaminants.

Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS): development and evaluation at two UK sites

The Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS) is evaluated at two locations in the UK: a dense urban site in the centre of London and a residential suburban site in Swindon. Eddy covariance observations of the turbulent fluxes are used to assess model performance over a twoyear period (2011-2013). The distinct characteristics of the sites mean their surface energy exchanges differ considerably. The model suggests the largest differences can be attributed to surface cover (notably the proportion of vegetated versus impervious area) and the additional energy supplied by human activities. SUEWS performs better in summer than winter, and better at the suburban site than the dense urban site. One reason for this is the bias towards suburban summer field campaigns in observational data used to parameterise this (and other) model(s). The suitability of model parameters (such as albedo, energy use and water use) for the UK sites is considered and, where appropriate, alternative values are suggested. An alternative parameterisation for the surface conductance is implemented, which permits greater soil moisture deficits before evaporation is restricted at non-irrigated sites. Accounting for seasonal variation in the estimation of storage heat flux is necessary to obtain realistic wintertime fluxes.

In Vitro Evaluation of Acellular Dermal Matrix as a Three-Dimensional Scaffold for Gingival Fibroblasts Seeding

Background: Tissue engineering principles could improve the incorporation of acellular dermal matrix (ADM). The aim of this study is to verify if ADM is a suitable three-dimensional matrix for gingival fibroblasts and cancerous cells ingrowth, and also if cultured medium conditioned in ADM affect cellular behavior. Methods: Canine gingival fibroblasts (CGF), human gingival fibroblasts (HGF), and murine melanoma cell line (B16F10) were seeded on ADM for up to 14 days. The following parameters were assessed: morphology and distribution of CGF, HGF, and B16F10; CGF and HGF viability; and the effect of ADM conditioned medium (CM) on CGF viability. Results: Epifluorescence revealed that CGF were unevenly distributed on the ADM surface, showing no increase in cell number over the periods of study; HGF formed a monolayer on the ADM surface in a higher number at 14 days (P<0.05); B16F10 exhibited an increase in cell number within 7 days (P<0.05), and were mainly arranged in cell aggregates on the ADM, forming a continuous layer at 14 days. A higher percentage of cells on the ADM surface (P<0.05) compared to inside was observed for all cell types. 3-[4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl]-2,5-diphenyl tetrazolium bromide (MU) values indicated higher cell viability in samples cultured with HGF compared to CGF (P=0.024). A significantly lower cell viability for CGF grown in CM compared to cells grown in non-CM was observed at 48 and 72 hours (P<0.05). Conclusions: ADM is not suitable as a three-dimensional matrix for gingival fibroblasts ingrowth. Gingival fibroblasts and highly proliferative cells as B16F10 can only be superficially located on ADM, and CGF are negatively affected by culture medium conditioned in ADM, reducing its viability. J Periodontol 2011;82:293-301.

Histomorphometric Evaluation of Bioceramic Molecular Impregnated and Dual Acid-Etched Implant Surfaces in the Human Posterior Maxilla

Background: Physical and bioceramic incorporation surface treatments at the nanometer scale showed higher means of bone-to-implant contact (BIC) and torque values compared with surface topography at the micrometer scale; however, the literature concerning the effect of nanometer scale parameters is sparse. Purpose: The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of two different implant surfaces on the percentage bone-to-implant contact (BIC%) and bone osteocyte density in the human posterior maxilla after 2 months of unloaded healing. Materials and Methods: The implants utilized presented dual acid-etched (DAE) surface and a bioceramic molecular impregnated treatment (Ossean(R), Intra-Lock International, Boca Raton, FL, USA) serving as control and test, respectively. Ten subjects (59 1 9 years of age) received two implants (one of each surface) during conventional implant surgery in the posterior maxilla. After the non-loaded period of 2 months, the implants and the surrounding tissue were removed by means of a trephine and were non-decalcified processed for ground sectioning and analysis of BIC%, bone density in threaded area (BA%), and osteocyte index (Oi). Results: Two DAE implants were found to be clinically unstable at time of retrieval. Histometric evaluation showed significantly higher BIC% and Oi for the test compared to the control surface (p < .05), and that BA% was not significantly different between groups. Wilcoxon matched pairs test was used to compare the differences of histomorphometric variables between implant surfaces. The significance test was conducted at a 5% level of significance. Conclusion: The histological data suggest that the bioceramic molecular impregnated surface-treated implants positively modulated bone healing at early implantation times compared to the DAE surface.

In vitro and clinical evaluation of specific dentifrices for complete denture hygiene

To study the physical properties of two experimental dentifrices for complete denture hygiene, their effect on denture biofilm removal and antimicrobial properties by means of a clinical trial. The experimental dentifrices comprised two compositions. One was based on the addition of 1% chloramine T (D1) and the other on the presence of 0.01% fluorosurfactant (D2). Measurements of density, pH, consistency, rheological features and abrasiveness were conducted. Sixty complete denture wearers were randomly assigned to three groups and were instructed to brush their dentures with a specific toothbrush: (1) Water (control); (2) D1; or (3) D2. Each method was used for 21 days. Denture biofilm was disclosed by a 1% neutral red solution and quantified by means of digital photos taken from the internal surface. Microbiological assessment was conducted to quantify Candida sp. and mutans streptococci. Data were evaluated by one-way anova and Tukey HSD, or Kruskal-Wallis (alpha = 0.05). Both dentifrices decreased biofilm coverage when compared with the control group. D1 was the most efficacious treatment to reduce mutans streptococci, whereas D2 showed an intermediate outcome (anova, p < 0.040). No treatment influenced Candida albicans or non-albicans species (Kruskal-Wallis, p = 0.163 and 0.746, respectively). It can be concluded that brushing complete dentures with the experimental dentifrices tested could be effective for the removal of denture biofilm.

Non-nutritive sucking scoring system for preterm newborns

Aim: To validate a non-nutritive sucking (NNS) scoring system for oral feeding in preterm newborns (PTNB). Methods: A cohort study was carried out in two phases. In phase one of the study, 22 mastered speech-language pathologists received the protocol and procedure for a NNS scoring system to evaluate the content and presentation of the form and to define the grading scale. In phase two, six speech-language pathologists evaluated 51 PTNBs weekly, using the defined scoring system. Setting: This study was carried out in the Nursery Annex to the Maternity at the Intensive and Neonatal Pediatrics Service, Instituto da Crianca, Hospital das Clinicas, School of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo (FMUSP) during the period from May 2004 to May 2006. Participants: A total of 28 speech-language pathologist experts and 51 PTNBs. Results: In the first phase of the study, 22 speech-language pathologists selected the criteria, utilized in the NNS evaluation with 80% agreement. In the second phase of the study, the NNS evaluation was carried out on 51 PTNB, and a scoring system of 50 points was proposed, which corresponds to the smallest number of false positive and negative results regarding oral feeding ability. Conclusion: An NNS evaluation system was validated that was able to indicate when oral feeding could safely begin in PTNBs with a high level of agreement among the speech-language pathologists who have participated.

Clinical evaluation and COL2A1 gene analysis in 21 Brazilian families with Stickler syndrome: Identification of novel mutations, further genotype/phenotype correlation, and its implications for the diagnosis

We present clinical and molecular evaluation from a large cohort of patients with Stickler syndrome: 78 individuals from 21 unrelated Brazilian families. The patients were selected in a Hospital with a craniofacial dysmorphology assistance service and clinical diagnosis was based on the presence of cleft palate associated to facial and ocular anomalies of Stickler syndrome. Analysis of COL2A1 gene revealed 9 novel and 4 previously described pathogenic mutations. Except for the mutation c.556G>T (p.Gly186X), all the others were located in the triple helical domain. We did not find genotype/phenotype correlation in relation to type and position of the mutation in the triple helical domain. However, a significantly higher proportion of myopia in patients with mutations located in this domain was observed in relation to those with the mutation in the non-tripe helical domain (c.556G>T; P < 0.04). A trend towards a higher prevalence of glaucoma, although not statistically significant, was observed in the presence of the mutation c.556G>T. It is possible. that this mutation alters the splicing of the mRNA instead of only creating a premature stop codon and therefore it can lead to protein products of different ocular effects. One novel DNA variation (c.1266+7G>C) occurs near a splice site and it was observed to co-segregate with the phenotype in one of the two families with this DNA variation. As in silico analysis predicted that the c.1266+7G>C DNA variation can affect the efficiency of the splicing, we still cannot rule it out as non-pathogenic. Our study also showed that ascertainment through cleft palate associated to other craniofacial signs can be very efficient for identification of Stickler syndrome patients. Still, high frequency of familial cases and high frequency of underdevelopment of distal lateral tibial epiphyses observed in our patients suggested that the inclusion of this information can improve the clinical diagnosis of Stickler syndrome. (C) 2008 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Histomorphologic evaluation of Ti-13Nb-13Zr alloys processed via powder metallurgy. A study in rabbits

This study presents the in-vivo evaluation of Ti-13Nb-13Zr alloy implants obtained by the hydride route via powder metallurgy. The cylindrical implants were processed at different sintering and holding times. The implants` were characterized for density, microstructure (SEM), crystalline phases (XRD), and bulk (EDS) and surface composition (XPS). The implants were then sterilized and surgically placed in the central region of the rabbit`s tibiae. Two double fluorescent markers were applied at 2 and 3 weeks, and 6 and 7 weeks after implantation. After an 8-week healing period, the implants were retrieved, non-decalcified section processed, and evaluated by electron, UV light (fluorescent labeling), and light microscopy (toluidine blue). BSE-SEM showed close contact between bone and implants. Fluorescent labeling assessment showed high bone activity levels at regions close to the implant surface. Toluidine blue staining revealed regions comprising osteoblasts at regions of newly forming/formed bone close to the implant surface. The results obtained in this study support biocompatible and osseoconductive properties of Ti-13Nb-13Zr processed through the hydride powder route. (c) 2007 Published by Elsevier B.V.