On Models, Modelling and the Distinctive Nature of Model-Based Reasoning

M.H. Lee, On Models, Modelling and the Distinctive Nature of Model-Based Reasoning, AI Communications, 12 (3), pp127-137.1999.

Pre-empting Plateau: the nature of topological transitions in foam

Hutzler, S., Weaire, D., Cox, S.J., Van der Net, A. and Janiaud, E. (2007) Pre-empting Plateau: the nature of topological transitions in foam. Europhys. Lett. 77: 28002 Sponsorship: EPSRC / ESA / ESTEC / Science Foundation Ireland/ Gulbenkian Foundation

The nature of emotional support and counselling provision for people with sight loss in the United Kingdom

People with sight loss in the United Kingdom are known to have lower levels of emotional wellbeing and to be at higher risk of depression. Consequently ‘having someone to talk to’ is an important priority for people with visual impairment. An on-line survey of the provision of emotional support and counselling for people affected by sight loss across the UK was undertaken. The survey was distributed widely and received 182 responses. There were more services offering ‘emotional support’, in the form of listening and information and advice giving, than offered ‘counselling’. Services were delivered by providers with differing qualifications in a variety of formats. Waiting times were fairly short and clients presented with a wide range of issues. Funding came from a range of sources, but many felt their funding was vulnerable. Conclusions have been drawn about the need for a national standardised framework for the provision of emotional support and counselling services for blind and partially sighted people in the UK

From privatisation to governed nature. Old and new approaches to rural commons in Spain

Recent decades have witnessed a shift in the studies on Spanish rural commons, in line with the changes in the international literature as a whole. The focus in the 1970s was on the land privatization process referred to as disentailment (Desamortización), being considered one of the essential dimensions of the transition to capitalism. The recent revival of interest in rural commons has focused less on privatization than on the real functioning of the commons and the social relations articulated around them. A further focus of interest is the interaction between rural society and the State, mainly through the study of forestry policy and its effects on different regions. A third field of interest is the emergence of conflicts around rural commons; not only those of a distributive nature but also environmental and political ones. Accordingly, these new approaches go beyond the old image of a fatal destiny in order to profoundly analyze the environmental and social interactions of rural commons dynamics.

Liberal Christianity : its origin, nature, and mission / by Jean Râeville ; translated and edited by Victor Leuliette.

http://www.archive.org/details/liberalchristian00rvuoft

The missionary nature of the church; a survey of the Biblical theology of mission.

http://www.archive.org/details/missionarynature013246mbp

On the Fractal Nature of WWW and Its Application to Cache Modeling

The World Wide Web (WWW or Web) is growing rapidly on the Internet. Web users want fast response time and easy access to a enormous variety of information across the world. Thus, performance is becoming a main issue in the Web. Fractals have been used to study fluctuating phenomena in many different disciplines, from the distribution of galaxies in astronomy to complex physiological control systems. The Web is also a complex, irregular, and random system. In this paper, we look at the document reference pattern at Internet Web servers and use fractal-based models to understand aspects (e.g. caching schemes) that affect the Web performance.

End-to-End Inference of Loss Nature in a Hybrid Wired/Wireless Environment

End-to-End differentiation between wireless and congestion loss can equip TCP control so it operates effectively in a hybrid wired/wireless environment. Our approach integrates two techniques: packet loss pairs (PLP) and Hidden Markov Modeling (HMM). A packet loss pair is formed by two back-to-back packets, where one packet is lost while the second packet is successfully received. The purpose is for the second packet to carry the state of the network path, namely the round trip time (RTT), at the time the other packet is lost. Under realistic conditions, PLP provides strong differentiation between congestion and wireless type of loss based on distinguishable RTT distributions. An HMM is then trained so observed RTTs can be mapped to model states that represent either congestion loss or wireless loss. Extensive simulations confirm the accuracy of our HMM-based technique in classifying the cause of a packet loss. We also show the superiority of our technique over the Vegas predictor, which was recently found to perform best and which exemplifies other existing loss labeling techniques.

The importance of interaction strength for food web dynamics and ecosystem functioning

Global biodiversity is eroding at an alarming rate, through a combination of anthropogenic disturbance and environmental change. Ecological communities are bewildering in their complexity. Experimental ecologists strive to understand the mechanisms that drive the stability and structure of these complex communities in a bid to inform nature conservation and management. Two fields of research have had high profile success at developing theories related to these stabilising structures and testing them through controlled experimentation. Biodiversity-ecosystem functioning (BEF) research has explored the likely consequences of biodiversity loss on the functioning of natural systems and the provision of important ecosystem services. Empirical tests of BEF theory often consist of simplified laboratory and field experiments, carried out on subsets of ecological communities. Such experiments often overlook key information relating to patterns of interactions, important relationships, and fundamental ecosystem properties. The study of multi-species predator-prey interactions has also contributed much to our understanding of how complex systems are structured, particularly through the importance of indirect effects and predator suppression of prey populations. A growing number of studies describe these complex interactions in detailed food webs, which encompass all the interactions in a community. This has led to recent calls for an integration of BEF research with the comprehensive study of food web properties and patterns, to help elucidate the mechanisms that allow complex communities to persist in nature. This thesis adopts such an approach, through experimentation at Lough Hyne marine reserve, in southwest Ireland. Complex communities were allowed to develop naturally in exclusion cages, with only the diversity of top trophic levels controlled. Species removals were carried out and the resulting changes to predator-prey interactions, ecosystem functioning, food web properties, and stability were studied in detail. The findings of these experiments contribute greatly to our understanding of the stability and structure of complex natural communities.

Soft sediment ecology of Lough Hyne Marine Reserve - spatial and temporal patterns

Distribution of soft sediment benthic fauna and the environmental factors affecting them were studied, to investigate changes across spatial and temporal scales. Investigations took place at Lough Hyne Marine Reserve using a range of methods. Data on the sedimentation rates of organic and inorganic matter were collected at monthly intervals for one year at a number of sites around the Lough, by use of vertical midwater-column sediment traps. Sedimentation of these two fractions were not coupled; inorganic matter sedimentation depended on hydrodynamic and weather factors, while the organic matter sedimentation was more complex, being dependent on biological and chemical processes in the water column. The effects of regular hypoxic episodes on benthic fauna due to a natural seasonal thermocline were studied in the deep Western Trough, using camera-equipped remotely-operated vehicle to follow transects, on a three-monthly basis over one year. In late summer, the area below the thermocline of the Western Trough was devoid of visible fauna. Decapod crustaceans were the first taxon to make use of ameliorating oxygen conditions in autumn, by darting below the thermocline depth, most likely to scavenge. This was indicated by tracks that they left on the surface of the Trough floor. Some species, most noticeably Fries’ goby Lesueurigobius friesii, migrated below the thermocline depth when conditions were normoxic and established semi-permanent burrows. Their population encompassed all size classes, indicating that this habitat was not limited to juveniles of this territorial species. Recolonisation by macrofauna and burrowing megafauna was studied during normoxic conditions, from November 2009 to May 2010. Macrofauna displayed a typical post-disturbance pattern of recolonisation with one species, the polychaete Scalibregma inflatum, occurring at high abundance levels in March 2010. In May, this population had become significantly reduced and a more diverse community was established. The abundance of burrowing infauna comprising decapods crabs and Fries’ gobies, was estimated by identifying and counting their distinctive burrow structures. While above the summer thermocline depth, burrow abundance increased in a linear fashion, below the thermocline depth a slight reduction of burrow abundance occurred in May, when oxygen conditions deteriorated again. The majority of the burrows occurring in May were made by Fries’ gobies, which are thought to encounter low oxygen concentrations in their burrows. Reduction in burrow abundance of burrowing shrimps Calocaris macandreae and Callianassa subterranea (based on descriptions of burrow structures from the literature), from March to May, might be related to their reduced activity in hypoxia, leading to loss of structural burrow maintenance. Spatial and temporal changes to macrofaunal assemblage structures were studied seasonally for one year across 5 sites in the Lough and subject to multivariate statistical analysis. Assemblage structures were significantly correlated with organic matter levels in the sediment, the amounts of organic matter settling out of the water column one month before macrofaunal sampling took place as well as current speed and temperature. This study was the first to investigate patterns and processes in the Lough soft sediment ecology across all 3 basins on a temporal and spatial scale. An investigation into the oceanographic aspects of the development, behaviour and break-down of the summer thermocline of Lough Hyne was performed in collaboration with researchers from other Irish institutions.

Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation

Wind power generation differs from conventional thermal generation due to the stochastic nature of wind. Thus wind power forecasting plays a key role in dealing with the challenges of balancing supply and demand in any electricity system, given the uncertainty associated with the wind farm power output. Accurate wind power forecasting reduces the need for additional balancing energy and reserve power to integrate wind power. Wind power forecasting tools enable better dispatch, scheduling and unit commitment of thermal generators, hydro plant and energy storage plant and more competitive market trading as wind power ramps up and down on the grid. This paper presents an in-depth review of the current methods and advances in wind power forecasting and prediction. Firstly, numerical wind prediction methods from global to local scales, ensemble forecasting, upscaling and downscaling processes are discussed. Next the statistical and machine learning approach methods are detailed. Then the techniques used for benchmarking and uncertainty analysis of forecasts are overviewed, and the performance of various approaches over different forecast time horizons is examined. Finally, current research activities, challenges and potential future developments are appraised.