Risk stratification in neonates and infants submitted to cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass: A multimarker approach combining inflammatory mediators, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and troponin I

Low cardiac output syndrome (LCOS) is a common problem following cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) in neonates and infants, and its early recognition remains a challenging task. We aimed to test whether a multimarker approach combining inflammatory and cardiac markers provides complementary information for prediction of LCOS and death in children submitted to cardiac surgery with CPB. Forty-six children younger than 18 months with congenital heart defects were prospectively enrolled. No intervention was made. Blood samples were collected pre-operatively, during CPB and post-operatively (PO) for measurement of interleukin (IL)-6, IL-8, IL-10, tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha, cardiac troponin I (cTnI) and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP). Clinical data and outcome variables were recorded. Logistic regression was used to identify predictors of LCOS and death. Multivariate logistic regression identified pre-operative NT-proBNP and IL-8 4 h PO as independent predictors of LCOS, while cTnI 4 h PO and CPB length were independent predictors of death. The use of inflammatory and cardiac markers in combination improved sensitivity, negative predictive value and accuracy of the models. In conclusion, the combined assessment of inflammatory and cardiac biochemical markers can be useful for identifying young children at increased risk for LCOS and death after heart surgery with CPB. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prevalence and risk factors of metabolic syndrome in Brazilian and Italian obese adolescents: a comparison study

Background: Metabolic syndrome (MS) prevalence between different populations in obese adolescents is scanty to date. Objective: To compare the MS prevalence and related risk factors in Brazilian and Italian obese adolescents. Methods: A total of 509 adolescents (110 Brazilian, 399 Italian), aged 15-19 years. Anthropometric characteristics, triglycerides (TG), total, low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-, high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol, fasting plasma glucose (FPG), insulin, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and blood pressure were measured. Results: Age, body mass index (BMI) and BMI z-score were not significantly different between the two subgroups. BMI z-score, TG, FPG, HOMA-IR and systolic blood pressure (SBP) were significantly higher in boys than in girls both in Brazilian and Italian adolescents, while HDL-cholesterol levels were lower in boys than in girls. No significant differences were observed in BMI, LDL and total-cholesterol and DBP in two genders and groups. Insulin, FPG, HOMA-IR and TG were significantly higher, while LDL-cholesterol and SBP were significantly lower in Brazilian than in Italian subjects, both in males and females. HDL and total-cholesterol and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) were not significantly different between the two subgroups and genders. MS prevalence was higher in Brazilian than in Italian obese boys (34.8 vs. 23.6%, p < 0.001) and girls (15.6 vs. 12.5%, p < 0.01). The most frequently altered parameter was HOMA-IR both in subjects with MS (100% in Brazilian and 81.8% in Italian) and without MS (42.9% and 11.7%). Conclusion: Metabolic syndrome represents a worldwide emerging health problem in different ethnical populations, the alterations of the risk factors related to MS (different in their prevalence between different subgroups) being strictly linked to the degree of obesity.

Could sudden death syndrome (SDS) in chickens (Gallus gallus) be a valid animal model for sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP)?

Epilepsy is the most common serious neurological disorder and approximately 1% of the population worldwide has epilepsy. Moreover, sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP) is the most important direct epilepsy-related cause of death. Information concerning fisk factors for SUDEP is conflicting, but potential risk factors include: young age, early onset of epilepsy, duration of epilepsy, uncontrolled seizures, seizure frequency, AED number and winter temperatures. Additionally, the cause of SUDEP is still unknown; however, the most commonly suggested mechanisms are cardiac abnormalities during and between seizures. Similarly, sudden death syndrome (SDS) is a disease characterized by an acute death of well-nourished and seeming healthy Gallus gallus after abrupt and brief flapping of their wings and incidence of SDS these animals has recently increased worldwide. Moreover, the exactly cause of SDS in Gallus gallus is unknown, but is very probable that cardiac abnormalities play a potential role. Due the similarities between SUDEP and SDS and as Gallus gallus behavioral manifestation during SDS phenomenon is close of a tonic-clonic seizure, in this paper we suggest that epilepsy could be a new possible causal factor for SDS. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prevalence and risk factors for anti-Toxoplasma gondii antibodies in goats of the Serido Oriental microregion, Rio Grande do Norte state, Northeast region of Brazil

The prevalence and risk factors for anti-Toxoplasma gondii antibodies were investigated in goats of the Serido Oriental microregion, Rio Grande do Norte state, Northeast region of Brazil. Three hundred and sixty-six blood samples from goats collected by jugular venopuncture were used. For the serologic diagnosis of Toxoplasma gondii infection, the indirect fluorescent-anti body test (IFAT) with cut-off value 1:64 was carried out. The prevalence of anti-T. gondii antibodies was 30.6% [95% CI = 25.9-35.6%] with titers ranging from 1:64 to 1: 16,384. The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the risk factors associated to anti-T. gondii antibodies were presence of cats in the herd, extensive/semi-intensive management systems and lack of mineral supplementation. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Tongue and Floor of the Mouth: Analysis of Survival Rate and Independent Prognostic Factors in the Amazon Region

Oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) accounts for more than 95% of all malignant neoplasms in the oral cavity. Although several studies have shown the epidemiology of this cancer in Brazil, there do not seem to be any studies that describe the prognostic factors related to OSCC in the Amazon region. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine the survival rate and prognostic significance of different factors in patients from this region affected by OSCC. Data from 85 patients with histologically confirmed squamous cell carcinoma of the tongue and floor of the mouth identified from the Ofir Loyola Hospital archives were collected and analyzed using univariate (log-rank test) and multivariate (Cox proportional hazard model) tests. The overall 5-year survival rate was found to be 27%. Univariate analysis showed that the 5-year survival rate was significantly higher for younger (<= 45 y) female patients, patients with T1-2 tumors and clinically clear neck nodes (N0), patients with early stage cancers (AJCC stage I-II), and patients treated with surgical procedures. However, multivariate analysis showed that the 5-year survival rate was significantly higher only in the younger patients and those who underwent surgical treatment. The age of the patient at the moment of diagnosis and treatment with surgical procedures were the only independent prognostic factors that affected the 5-year survival rate of the patients in this region.

Tooth loss prevalence and risk indicators in an isolated population of Brazil

Objective. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence, extent, and risk indicators of tooth loss in an isolated population of Brazil. Material and methods. Two-hundred-and-forty-two subjects, ranging in age from 14 to 82 years (mean 36.2 years), were identified by census in an isolated population of Brazil. All consenting subjects received a full-mouth clinical (DFT index and information about missing teeth) and periodontal examination of 6 sites per tooth. Furthermore, they were interviewed using a structured written questionnaire in order to gather information about demographic, environmental, and biological variables. Results. Of the 200 subjects (80% response rate), 19 (9.5%) were edentulous, 90% had lost at least one tooth, and 39% had lost more than 8 teeth. The mean number of teeth lost was 9.5 (95% CI = 8.2-10.8). First mandibular molars were the most commonly missing teeth. In a multiple logistic regression analysis based on a theoretical hierarchical model of tooth loss, having more than 8 teeth lost was strongly associated with adult age (OR = 18.3-17.3, 95% CIs = 4.8-69.7 and 4.0-75.1) and female gender (OR = 5.9, 95% CI = 1.9-18.2) in the final model. Conclusions. Tooth loss was highly prevalent and extensive in this isolated population. Demographic and behavioral factors played an important role in tooth loss prevalence in this population.

Risk indicators for increased probing depth in an isolated population in Brazil

Background: The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence, extent, and severity of probing depth (PD) and to investigate the associations between demographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral risk indicators and PD in a periodontally untreated and isolated population in Brazil. Methods: The target population consisted of all individuals aged >= 12 years as identified by a census. Consenting participants were submitted to a full-mouth clinical examination of six sites per tooth and were interviewed using a structured written questionnaire. Results: Among the 214 subjects who were interviewed and clinically examined, PD >= 4 mm was observed in 54% to 83% of the subjects, depending on age, whereas the age-dependent prevalence of PD :6 mm ranged from 5% among 12- to 19-year-olds to 50% among 40- to 49-year-olds, decreasing to 40% among subjects >= 50 years of age. Multivariate analyses identified supragingival calculus (odds ratio [OR] = 5.4 to 10.3; 95% confidence intervals [CIs]: 2.5 to 11.6 and 4.0 to 26.2 for 20% to 50% and > 50% of the sites, respectively) as a risk indicator for PD A mm, whereas age :40 years (OR = 9.0; 95% CI: 1.7 to 48.5), being a moderate/heavy smoker (OR = 3.7; 95% CI: 1.4 to 10. 1), and having supragingival calculus in 20% to 50% of sites (OR = 6.8; 95% CI: 1.4 to 32.4) or in >50% of sites (OR = 15.3; 95% CI: 3.2 to 73.6) were risk indicators for PD >= 6 mm. Having undergone urgency dental treatment was a protective factor for PD A and >= 6 mm (OR = 0.4; 95% CI: 0.2 to 0.8). Conclusions: Increased PD is highly prevalent in this isolated population. Behavioral factors played a significant role as risk indicators for increased PD in this isolated population.

Variation in Alcohol Pharmacokinetics as a Risk Factor for Alcohol Dependence

Background: The significant association between alcohol dehydrogenase (ADH)-2 genotype and alcohol-dependence risk, demonstrated in both Asian and non-Asian populations, suggests a link between the metabolism of alcohol (ethanol) and individual differences in susceptibility to dependence. Methods: We tested this hypothesis by following up on subjects who took part in the Alcohol Challenge Twin Study conducted in 1979-1981 and comparing the blood and breath alcohol results in that study between subjects who subsequently did or did not meet diagnostic criteria for lifetime alcohol dependence in 1992-1993. Results: Subjects who met DSM-III-R criteria for lifetime alcohol dependence at follow-up had higher blood and breath alcohol values after alcohol challenge than never-dependent subjects. Multivariate analysis showed independent effects of susceptibility to alcohol dependence and smoking status on blood alcohol concentrations, whereas habitual alcohol intake at the time of the initial study had marginally significant effects. The risk of alcohol dependence was 2-fold higher in men and 3-fold higher in women with blood or breath alcohol concentrations in the highest quartile than in the lowest quartile. Conclusions: In view of this association and the known genetic influences on both alcohol pharmacokinetics and alcohol dependence, it is probable that part of the heritability of dependence is mediated by genes (other than the known ADH2 and ADH3 polymorphisms) affecting alcohol metabolism.

A zero-augmented gamma mixed model for longitudinal data with many zeros

In many occupational safety interventions, the objective is to reduce the injury incidence as well as the mean claims cost once injury has occurred. The claims cost data within a period typically contain a large proportion of zero observations (no claim). The distribution thus comprises a point mass at 0 mixed with a non-degenerate parametric component. Essentially, the likelihood function can be factorized into two orthogonal components. These two components relate respectively to the effect of covariates on the incidence of claims and the magnitude of claims, given that claims are made. Furthermore, the longitudinal nature of the intervention inherently imposes some correlation among the observations. This paper introduces a zero-augmented gamma random effects model for analysing longitudinal data with many zeros. Adopting the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) approach reduces the original problem to the fitting of two independent GLMMs. The method is applied to evaluate the effectiveness of a workplace risk assessment teams program, trialled within the cleaning services of a Western Australian public hospital.

Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Mixture Densities for Binned and Truncated Multivariate Data

Binning and truncation of data are common in data analysis and machine learning. This paper addresses the problem of fitting mixture densities to multivariate binned and truncated data. The EM approach proposed by McLachlan and Jones (Biometrics, 44: 2, 571-578, 1988) for the univariate case is generalized to multivariate measurements. The multivariate solution requires the evaluation of multidimensional integrals over each bin at each iteration of the EM procedure. Naive implementation of the procedure can lead to computationally inefficient results. To reduce the computational cost a number of straightforward numerical techniques are proposed. Results on simulated data indicate that the proposed methods can achieve significant computational gains with no loss in the accuracy of the final parameter estimates. Furthermore, experimental results suggest that with a sufficient number of bins and data points it is possible to estimate the true underlying density almost as well as if the data were not binned. The paper concludes with a brief description of an application of this approach to diagnosis of iron deficiency anemia, in the context of binned and truncated bivariate measurements of volume and hemoglobin concentration from an individual's red blood cells.

A model of factors affecting an information system's change in state

Management are keen to maximize the life span of an information system because of the high cost, organizational disruption, and risk of failure associated with the re-development or replacement of an information system. This research investigates the effects that various factors have on an information system's life span by understanding how the factors affect an information system's stability. The research builds on a previously developed two-stage model of information system change whereby an information system is either in a stable state of evolution in which the information system's functionality is evolving, or in a state of revolution, in which the information system is being replaced because it is not providing the functionality expected by its users. A case study surveyed a number of systems within one organization. The aim was to test whether a relationship existed between the base value of the volatility index (a measure of the stability of an information system) and certain system characteristics. Data relating to some 3000 user change requests covering 40 systems over a 10-year period were obtained. The following factors were hypothesized to have significant associations with the base value of the volatility index: language level (generation of language of construction), system size, system age, and the timing of changes applied to a system. Significant associations were found in the hypothesized directions except that the timing of user changes was not associated with any change in the value of the volatility index. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Genetic Covariation between Serum {gamma}-Glutamyltransferase Activity and Cardiovascular Risk Factors

Background: Several studies have shown that variation in serum gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) in the population is associated with risk of death or development of cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, stroke, or hypertension. This association is only partly explained by associations between GGT and recognized risk factors. Our aim was to estimate the relative importance of genetic and environmental sources of variation in GGT as well as genetic and environmental sources of covariation between GGT and other liver enzymes and markers of cardiovascular risk in adult twin pairs. Methods: We recruited 1134 men and 2241 women through the Australian Twin Registry. Data were collected through mailed questionnaires, telephone interviews, and by analysis of blood samples. Sources of variation in GGT, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and of covariation between GGT and cardiovascular risk factors were assessed by maximum-likelihood model-fitting. Results: Serum GGT, ALT, and AST were affected by additive genetic and nonshared environmental factors, with heritabilities estimated at 0.52, 0.48, and 0.32, respectively. One-half of the genetic variance in GGT was shared with ALT, AST, or both. There were highly significant correlations between GGT and body mass index; serum lipids, lipoproteins, glucose, and insulin; and blood pressure. These correlations were more attributable to genes that affect both GGT and known cardiovascular risk factors than to environmental factors. Conclusions: Variation in serum enzymes that reflect liver function showed significant genetic effects, and there was evidence that both genetic and environmental factors that affect these enzymes can also affect cardiovascular risk. (C) 2002 American Association for Clinical Chemistry.

Risk factors for non-haemorrhagic stroke in patients with coronary heart disease and the effect of lipid-modifying therapy with pravastatin

Objective To determine the relative importance of recognised risk factors for non-haemorrhagic stroke, including serum cholesterol and the effect of cholesterol-lowering therapy, on the occurrence of non-haemorrhagic stroke in patients enrolled in the LIPID (Long-term Intervention with Pravastatin in Ischaemic Disease) study. Design The LIPID study was a placebo-controlled, double-blind trial of the efficacy on coronary heart disease mortality of pravastatin therapy over 6 years in 9014 patients with previous acute coronary syndromes and baseline total cholesterol of 4-7 mmol/l. Following identification of patients who had suffered non-haemorrhagic stroke, a pre-specified secondary end point, multivariate Cox regression was used to determine risk in the total population. Time-to-event analysis was used to determine the effect of pravastatin therapy on the rate of non-haemorrhagic stroke. Results There were 388 non-haemorrhagic strokes in 350 patients. Factors conferring risk of future non-haemorrhagic stroke were age, atrial fibrillation, prior stroke, diabetes, hypertension, systolic blood pressure, cigarette smoking, body mass index, male sex and creatinine clearance. Baseline lipids did not predict non-haemorrhagic stroke. Treatment with pravastatin reduced non-haemorrhagic stroke by 23% (P= 0.016) when considered alone, and 21% (P= 0.024) after adjustment for other risk factors. Conclusions The study confirmed the variety of risk factors for non-haemorrhagic stroke. From the risk predictors, a simple prognostic index was created for nonhaemorrhagic stroke to identify a group of patients at high risk. Treatment with pravastatin resulted in significant additional benefit after allowance for risk factors. (C) 2002 Lippincott Williams Wilkins.

An overview of APSIM, a model designed for farming systems simulation

The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) is a modular modelling framework that has been developed by the Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit in Australia. APSIM was developed to simulate biophysical process in farming systems, in particular where there is interest in the economic and ecological outcomes of management practice in the face of climatic risk. The paper outlines APSIM's structure and provides details of the concepts behind the different plant, soil and management modules. These modules include a diverse range of crops, pastures and trees, soil processes including water balance, N and P transformations, soil pH, erosion and a full range of management controls. Reports of APSIM testing in a diverse range of systems and environments are summarised. An example of model performance in a long-term cropping systems trial is provided. APSIM has been used in a broad range of applications, including support for on-farm decision making, farming systems design for production or resource management objectives, assessment of the value of seasonal climate forecasting, analysis of supply chain issues in agribusiness activities, development of waste management guidelines, risk assessment for government policy making and as a guide to research and education activity. An extensive citation list for these model testing and application studies is provided. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Biological determinants of extinction risk: why are smaller species less vulnerable?

It is becoming increasingly clear that species of smaller body size tend to be less vulnerable to contemporary extinction threats than larger species, but few studies have examined the mechanisms underlying this pattern. In this paper, data for the Australian terrestrial mammal fauna are used to ask whether higher reproductive output or smaller home ranges can explain the reduced extinction risk of smaller species. Extinct and endangered species do indeed have smaller litters and larger home ranges for their body size than expected under a null model. In multiple regressions, however, only litter size is a significant predictor of extinction risk once body size and phylogeny are controlled for. Larger litters contribute to fast population growth, and are probably part of the reason that smaller species are less extinction-prone. The effect of litter size varies between the mesic coastal regions and the and interior of Australia, indicating that the environment a species inhabits mediates the effect of biology on extinction risk. These results suggest that predicting extinction risk from biological traits is likely to be a complex task which must consider explicitly interactions between biology and environment.