Combining multivariate density forecasts using predictive criteria

This paper combines multivariate density forecasts of output growth, inflationand interest rates from a suite of models. An out-of-sample weighting scheme based onthe predictive likelihood as proposed by Eklund and Karlsson (2005) and Andersson andKarlsson (2007) is used to combine the models. Three classes of models are considered: aBayesian vector autoregression (BVAR), a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR)and a medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Using Australiandata, we find that, at short forecast horizons, the Bayesian VAR model is assignedthe most weight, while at intermediate and longer horizons the factor model is preferred.The DSGE model is assigned little weight at all horizons, a result that can be attributedto the DSGE model producing density forecasts that are very wide when compared withthe actual distribution of observations. While a density forecast evaluation exercise revealslittle formal evidence that the optimally combined densities are superior to those from thebest-performing individual model, or a simple equal-weighting scheme, this may be a resultof the short sample available.

Reliability of the image evaluation system PGMI

Purpose: Many countries used the PGMI (P=perfect, G=good, M=moderate, I=inadequate) classification system for assessing the quality of mammograms. Limits inherent to the subjectivity of this classification have been shown. Prior to introducing this system in Switzerland, we wanted to better understand the origin of this subjectivity in order to minimize it. Our study aimed at identifying the main determinants of the variability of the PGMI system and which criteria are the most subjected to subjectivity. Methods and Materials: A focus group composed of 2 experienced radiographers and 2 radiologists specified each PGMI criterion. Ten raters (6 radiographers and 4 radiologists) evaluated twice a panel of 40 randomly selected mammograms (20 analogic and 20 digital) according to these specified PGMI criteria. The PGMI classification was assessed and the intra- and inter-rater reliability was tested for each professional group (radiographer vs radiologist), image technology (analogic vs digital) and PGMI criterion. Results: Some 3,200 images were assessed. The intra-rater reliability appears to be weak, particularly in respect to inter-rater variability. Subjectivity appears to be largely independent of the professional group and image technology. Aspects of the PGMI classification criteria most subjected to variability were identified. Conclusion: Post-test discussions enabled to specify more precisely some criteria. This should reduce subjectivity when applying the PGMI classification system. A concomitant, important effort in training radiographers is also necessary.

Evaluation of the Adolescent Drug Abuse Diagnosis instrument in a Swiss sample of drug abusers.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate a French language version of the Adolescent Drug Abuse Diagnosis (ADAD) instrument in a Swiss sample of adolescent illicit drug and/or alcohol users. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: The participants in the study were 102 French-speaking adolescents aged 13-19 years who fitted the criteria of illicit drug or alcohol use (at least one substance--except tobacco--once a week during the last 3 months). They were recruited in hospitals, institutions and leisure places. Procedure. The ADAD was administered individually by trained psychologists. It was integrated into a broader protocol including alcohol and drug abuse DSM-IV diagnoses, the BDI-13 (Beck Depression Inventory), life events and treatment trajectories. RESULTS: The ADAD appears to show good inter-rater reliability; the subscales showed good internal coherence and the correlations between the composite scores and the severity ratings were moderate to high. Finally, the results confirmed good concurrent validity for three out of eight ADAD dimensions. CONCLUSIONS: The French language version of the ADAD appears to be an adequate instrument for assessing drug use and associated problems in adolescents. Despite its complexity, the instrument has acceptable validity, reliability and usefulness criteria, enabling international and transcultural comparisons.

Inpatient diabetes care in a Swiss multi-site hospital: is there room for improvement?

Background and objective: Optimal care of diabetic patients (DPs) decreases the risk of complications. Close blood glucose monitoring can improve patient outcomes and shorten hospital stay. The objective of this pilot study was to evaluate the treatment of hospitalized DPs according to the current standards, including their diabetic treatment and drugs to prevent diabetes related complications [=guardian drugs: angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEI) or Angiotensin II Receptor Blockers (ARB), antiplatelet drugs, statins]. Guidelines of the American Diabetes Association (ADA) [1] were used as reference as they were the most recent and exhaustive for hospital care. Design: Observational pilot study: analysis of the medical records of all DPs seen by the clinical pharmacists during medical rounds in different hospital units. An assessment was made by assigning points for fulfilling the different criteria according to ADA and then by dividing the total by the maximum achievable points (scale 0-1; 1 = all criteria fulfilled). Setting: Different Internal Medicine and Geriatric Units of the (multi-site) Ho^pital du Valais. Main outcome measures: - Completeness of diabetes-related information: type of diabetes, medical history, weight, albuminuria status, renal function, blood pressure, (recent) lipid profile. - Management of blood glucose: Hb1Ac, glycemic control, plan for treating hyper-/hypoglycaemia. - Presence of guardian drugs if indicated. Results: Medical records of 42 patients in 10 different units were analysed (18 women, 24 men, mean age 75.4 ± 11 years). 41 had type 2 diabetes. - Completeness of diabetes-related information: 0.8 ± 0.1. Information often missing: insulin-dependence (43%) and lipid profile (86%). - Management of blood glucose: 0.5 ± 0.2. 15 patients had suboptimal glycemic balance (target glycaemia 7.2-11.2 mmol/ l, with values[11.2 or\3.8 mmol/l, or Hb1Ac[7%), 10 patients had a deregulated balance (more than 10 values[11.2 mmol/l or \3.8 mmol/l and even values[15 mmol/l). - Presence of guardian drugs if indicated: ACEI/ARB: 19 of 23 patients (82.6%), statin: 16 of 40 patients (40%), antiplatelet drug: 16 of 39 patients (41%). Conclusions: Blood glucose control was insufficient in many DPs and prescription of statins and antiplatelet drugs was often missing. If confirmed by a larger study, these two points need to be optimised. As it is not always possible and appropriate to make those changes during hospital stay, a further project should assess and optimise diabetes care across both inpatient and outpatient settings.

Performance of panel-based criteria to evaluate the appropriateness of colonoscopy: a prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Prospective data describing the appropriateness of use of colonoscopy based on detailed panel-based clinical criteria are not available. METHODS: In a cohort of 553 consecutive patients referred for colonoscopy to two university-based Swiss outpatient clinics, the percentage of patients who underwent colonoscopy for appropriate, equivocal, and inappropriate indications and the relationship between appropriateness of use and the presence of relevant endoscopic lesions was prospectively assessed. This assessment was based on criteria of the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy and explicit American and Swiss criteria developed in 1994 by a formal panel process using the RAND/UCLA appropriateness method. RESULTS: The procedures were rated appropriate or equivocal in 72.2% by criteria of the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy, in 68.5% by explicit American criteria, and in 74.4% by explicit Swiss criteria (not statistically significant, NS). Inappropriate use (overuse) of colonoscopy was found in 27.8%, 31.5%, and 25.6%, respectively (NS). The proportion of appropriate procedures was higher with increasing age. Almost all reasons for using colonoscopy could be assessed by the two explicit criteria sets, whereas 28.4% of reasons for using colonoscopy could not be evaluated by the criteria of the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (p < 0.0001). The probability of finding a relevant endoscopic lesion was distinctly higher in the procedures rated appropriate or equivocal than in procedures judged inappropriate. CONCLUSIONS: The rate of inappropriate use of colonoscopy is substantial in Switzerland. Explicit criteria allow assessment of almost all indications encountered in clinical practice. In this study, all sets of appropriateness criteria significantly enhanced the probability of finding a relevant endoscopic lesion during colonoscopy.

Objective evaluation of shoulder function using body-fixed sensors: a new way to detect early treatment failures?

Background: Variable definitions of outcome (Constant score, Simple Shoulder Test [SST]) have been used to assess outcome after shoulder treatment, although none has been accepted as the universal standard. Physicians lack an objective method to reliably assess the activity of their patients in dynamic conditions. Our purpose was to clinically validate the shoulder kinematic scores given by a portable movement analysis device, using the activities of daily living described in the SST as a reference. The secondary objective was to determine whether this device could be used to document the effectiveness of shoulder treatments (for glenohumeral osteoarthritis and rotator cuff disease) and detect early failures.Methods: A clinical trial including 34 patients and a control group of 31 subjects over an observation period of 1 year was set up. Evaluations were made at baseline and 3, 6, and 12 months after surgery by 2 independent observers. Miniature sensors (3-dimensional gyroscopes and accelerometers) allowed kinematic scores to be computed. They were compared with the regular outcome scores: SST; Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand; American Shoulder and Elbow Surgeons; and Constant.Results: Good to excellent correlations (0.61-0.80) were found between kinematics and clinical scores. Significant differences were found at each follow-up in comparison with the baseline status for all the kinematic scores (P < .015). The kinematic scores were able to point out abnormal patient outcomes at the first postoperative follow-up.Conclusion: Kinematic scores add information to the regular outcome tools. They offer an effective way to measure the functional performance of patients with shoulder pathology and have the potential to detect early treatment failures.Level of evidence: Level II, Development of Diagnostic Criteria, Diagnostic Study. (C) 2011 Journal of Shoulder and Elbow Surgery Board of Trustees.

Evaluation of Bridge Replacement Alternatives for the County Bridge System, HR-365 August 1994

Recent reports have indicated that 23.5 percent of the nation's highway bridges are structurally deficient and 17.7 percent are functionally obsolete. A significant number of these bridges are on the Iowa county road system. The objective of the investigation described in this report was to identify, review and evaluate replacement bridges currently being used by various counties in Iowa and surrounding states. Iowa county engineers, county engineers in neighboring states as well as private manufacturers of bridge components, and regional precad prestressed concrete manufacturers were contacted to determine the most common replacement bridge types being used. Depending upon the findings of the review, possible improvements and/or new replacement bridge systems were to be proposed. A questionnaire was developed and sent to county engineers in Iowa and several counties in surrounding states. The results of the questionnaire showed that the most common replacement bridges in Iowa are the continuous concrete slab and prestressed concrete bridges. The primary reason these types are used is because of the availability of standard designs and because of their ease of maintenance. Counties seldom construct these types of bridges using their own labor forces, but instead contract the work. However, county forces are used to construct steel stringer, precast reinforced concrete and timber bridges. In general, 69 percent of the counties indicate an ability and willingness to use their own forces to design and construct relatively short span bridges (i.e., 40 A or less) provided the construction procedures are relatively simple. Several unique replacement bridge types used in Iowa that are constructed by county forces are documented and presented in this report. Sufficient details are provided to allow county engineers to determine if some of these bridges could be used to resolve some of their own replacement bridge problems. Where possible, cost information has also been provided. Each of these bridge types were evaluated for various criteria (e.g., cost effectiveness, conformance to AASI-ITO standards, range of sizes, etc.) by a panel of four Iowa county engineers; a summary of this critique is included. After evaluating the questionnaire responses from the counties and evaluating the various bridge replacement concepts currently in use, one new bridge replacement concept and one modification of a current Iowa county bridge replacement concept were developed. Both of these concepts would utilize county labor forces.

Multi-well fungal co-culture for de novo metabolite-induction in time-series studies based on untargeted metabolomics.

The induction of fungal metabolites by fungal co-cultures grown on solid media was explored using multi-well co-cultures in 2 cm diameter Petri dishes. Fungi were grown in 12-well plates to easily and rapidly obtain the large number of replicates necessary for employing metabolomic approaches. Fungal culture using such a format accelerated the production of metabolites by several weeks compared with using the large-format 9 cm Petri dishes. This strategy was applied to a co-culture of a Fusarium and an Aspergillus strain. The metabolite composition of the cultures was assessed using ultra-high pressure liquid chromatography coupled to electrospray ionisation and time-of-flight mass spectrometry, followed by automated data mining. The de novo production of metabolites was dramatically increased by nutriment reduction. A time-series study of the induction of the fungal metabolites of interest over nine days revealed that they exhibited various induction patterns. The concentrations of most of the de novo induced metabolites increased over time. However, interesting patterns were observed, such as with the presence of some compounds only at certain time points. This result indicates the complexity and dynamic nature of fungal metabolism. The large-scale production of the compounds of interest was verified by co-culture in 15 cm Petri dishes; most of the induced metabolites of interest (16/18) were found to be produced as effectively as on a small scale, although not in the same time frames. Large-scale production is a practical solution for the future production, identification and biological evaluation of these metabolites.

Multi-Atlas based Segmentation of Head and Neck CT Images using Active Contour

This paper presents the segmentation of bilateral parotid glands in the Head and Neck (H&N) CT images using an active contour based atlas registration. We compare segmentation results from three atlas selection strategies: (i) selection of "single-most-similar" atlas for each image to be segmented, (ii) fusion of segmentation results from multiple atlases using STAPLE, and (iii) fusion of segmentation results using majority voting. Among these three approaches, fusion using majority voting provided the best results. Finally, we present a detailed evaluation on a dataset of eight images (provided as a part of H&N auto segmentation challenge conducted in conjunction with MICCAI-2010 conference) using majority voting strategy.

Identity [R]Evolution: Multi-Disciplinary Perpectives

The identity [r]evolution is happening. Who are you, who am I in the information society? In recent years, the convergence of several factors - technological, political, economic - has accelerated a fundamental change in our networked world. On a technological level, information becomes easier to gather, to store, to exchange and to process. The belief that more information brings more security has been a strong political driver to promote information gathering since September 11. Profiling intends to transform information into knowledge in order to anticipate one's behaviour, or needs, or preferences. It can lead to categorizations according to some specific risk criteria, for example, or to direct and personalized marketing. As a consequence, new forms of identities appear. They are not necessarily related to our names anymore. They are based on information, on traces that we leave when we act or interact, when we go somewhere or just stay in one place, or even sometimes when we make a choice. They are related to the SIM cards of our mobile phones, to our credit card numbers, to the pseudonyms that we use on the Internet, to our email addresses, to the IP addresses of our computers, to our profiles... Like traditional identities, these new forms of identities can allow us to distinguish an individual within a group of people, or describe this person as belonging to a community or a category. How far have we moved through this process? The identity [r]evolution is already becoming part of our daily lives. People are eager to share information with their "friends" in social networks like Facebook, in chat rooms, or in Second Life. Customers take advantage of the numerous bonus cards that are made available. Video surveillance is becoming the rule. In several countries, traditional ID documents are being replaced by biometric passports with RFID technologies. This raises several privacy issues and might actually even result in changing the perception of the concept of privacy itself, in particular by the younger generation. In the information society, our (partial) identities become the illusory masks that we choose -or that we are assigned- to interplay and communicate with each other. Rights, obligations, responsibilities, even reputation are increasingly associated with these masks. On the one hand, these masks become the key to access restricted information and to use services. On the other hand, in case of a fraud or negative reputation, the owner of such a mask can be penalized: doors remain closed, access to services is denied. Hence the current preoccupying growth of impersonation, identity-theft and other identity-related crimes. Where is the path of the identity [r]evolution leading us? The booklet is giving a glance on possible scenarios in the field of identity.

Evaluation of the MIT-Scan-T2 for Non-Destructive PCC Pavement Thickness Determination Final Report, July 2008

The MIT-Scan-T2 device is marketed as a non-destructive way to determine pavement thickness on both HMA and PCC pavements. PCC pavement thickness determination is an important incentivedisincentive measurement for the Iowa DOT and contractors. The thickness incentive can be as much as 3% of the concrete contact unit price and the disincentive can be as severe as remove and replace. This study evaluated the potential of the MIT device for PCC pavement thickness quality assurance. The limited testing indicates the unit is sufficiently repeatable and accurate enough to replace core drilling as the thickness measurement method. Further study is needed to statistically establish the single user and multi-user/device precision as well as establish an appropriate sampling protocol and PWL specification.

Analysis of Existing Work-Zone Devices with MASH Safety Performance Criteria, TPF-5(018), 2009

Crashworthy, work-zone, portable sign support systems accepted under NCHRP Report No. 350 were analyzed to predict their safety peformance according to the TL-3 MASH evaluation criteria. An analysis was conducted to determine which hardware parameters of sign support systems would likely contribute to the safety performance with MASH. The acuracy of the method was evaluated through full-scale crash testing. Four full-scale crash tests were conducted with a pickup truck. Two tall-mounted, sign support systems with aluminum sign panels failed the MASH criteria due to windshield penetration. One low-mounted system with a vinyl, roll-up sign panel failed the MASH criteria due to windshield and floorboard penetration. Another low-mounted system with an aluminum sign panel successfully met the MASH criteria. Four full-scale crash tests were conducted with a small passenger car. The low-mounted tripod system with an aluminum sign panel failed the MASH criteria due to windshield penetration. One low-mounted system with aluminum sign panel failed the MASH criteria due to excessive windshield deformation, and another similar system passed the MASH criteria. The low-mounted system with a vinyl, roll-up sign panel successfully met the MASH criteria. Hardware parameters of work-zone sign support systems that were determined to be important for failure with MASH include sign panel material, the height to the top of the mast, the presence of flags, sign-locking mechanism, base layout and system orientation. Flowcharts were provided to assist manufacturers when designing new sign support systems.

Evaluation of Bias in the Hamburg Wheel Tracking Device, RB00-010, 2013

As the list of states adopting the HWTD continues to grow, there is a need to evaluate how results are utilized. AASHTO T 324 does not standardize the analysis and reporting of test results. Furthermore, processing and reporting of the results among manufacturers is not uniform. This is partly due to the variation among agency reporting requirements. Some include only the midpoint rut depth, while others include the average across the entire length of the wheel track. To eliminate bias in reporting, statistical analysis was performed on over 150 test runs on gyratory specimens. Measurement location was found to be a source of significant variation in the HWTD. This is likely due to the nonuniform wheel speed across the specimen, geometry of the specimen, and air void profile. Eliminating this source of bias when reporting results is feasible though is dependent upon the average rut depth at the final pass. When reporting rut depth at the final pass, it is suggested for poor performing samples to average measurement locations near the interface of the adjoining gyratory specimens. This is necessary due to the wheel lipping on the mold. For all other samples it is reasonable to only eliminate the 3 locations furthest from the gear house. For multi‐wheel units, wheel side was also found to be significant for poor and good performing samples. After eliminating the suggested measurements from the analysis, the wheel was no longer a significant source of variation.

Measurement of multi-segment foot joint angles during gait using a wearable system.

Usually the measurement of multi-segment foot and ankle complex kinematics is done with stationary motion capture devices which are limited to use in a gait laboratory. This study aimed to propose and validate a wearable system to measure the foot and ankle complex joint angles during gait in daily conditions, and then to investigate its suitability for clinical evaluations. The foot and ankle complex consisted of four segments (shank, hindfoot, forefoot, and toes), with an inertial measurement unit (3D gyroscopes and 3D accelerometers) attached to each segment. The angles between the four segments were calculated in the sagittal, coronal, and transverse planes using a new algorithm combining strap-down integration and detection of low-acceleration instants. To validate the joint angles measured by the wearable system, three subjects walked on a treadmill for five minutes at three different speeds. A camera-based stationary system that used a cluster of markers on each segment was used as a reference. To test the suitability of the system for clinical evaluation, the joint angle ranges were compared between a group of 10 healthy subjects and a group of 12 patients with ankle osteoarthritis, during two 50-m walking trials where the wearable system was attached to each subject. On average, over all joints and walking speeds, the RMS differences and correlation coefficients between the angular curves obtained using the wearable system and the stationary system were 1 deg and 0.93, respectively. Moreover, this system was able to detect significant alteration of foot and ankle function between the group of patients with ankle osteoarthritis and the group of healthy subjects. In conclusion, this wearable system was accurate and suitable for clinical evaluation when used to measure the multi-segment foot and ankle complex kinematics during long-distance walks in daily life conditions.

Field Demonstration and Laboratory Evaluation of Foamed Asphalts - Muscatine County, HR-233, 1985

In view of the energy, environmental, and economic advantages of the foamed asphalt process using local aggregates in cold mixes and the promising results from Research Project HR-212, a 4.2-mile section of county road in Muscatine County was built with foamed asphalt and local aggregates during August-September 1983. Extensive laboratory evaluation was carried out on five plant mixes representing foamed mixes used in the nine test sections, a laboratory prepared foamed mix, and a laboratory prepared hot mix similar to Plant Mix 1. The foamed mixes were compacted, cured under 15 curing conditions and tested for bulk specific gravity, Marshall stability at 77° F and at 140° F, cured moisture content, resilient modulus and effects of moisture damage due to freeze-thaw cycles, water soaking, and vacuum saturation. In addition, four sets of 83 core samples were taken at 1 to 15 months and tested for moisture content, specific gravity, Marshall stability, and resilient modulus. In summary, the test road has performed satisfactorily for almost two years. The few early construction problems encountered were to be expected for experimental projects dealing with new materials and technologies. Overall results to date are encouraging and foamed asphalt mixes have proved to have the potential as a viable base material in areas where marginal aggregates are available. It is hoped and expected that performance evaluation of the test sections will be continued and that more foamed asphalt trial projects will be constructed and monitored so that experiences and findings from this project can be verified and mix design criteria can be gradually established. For future foamed asphalt projects it is recommended that anti-stripping additives, such as hydrated lime, be added in view of the potential moisture susceptibility of foamed mixes observed in the laboratory evaluation.