Beyond point forecasting : evaluation of alternative prediction intervals for tourist arrivals

This paper evaluates the performances of prediction intervals generated from alternative time series models, in the context of tourism forecasting. The forecasting methods considered include the autoregressive (AR) model, the AR model using the bias-corrected bootstrap, seasonal ARIMA models, innovations state space models for exponential smoothing, and Harvey’s structural time series models. We use thirteen monthly time series for the number of tourist arrivals to Hong Kong and Australia. The mean coverage rates and widths of the alternative prediction intervals are evaluated in an empirical setting. It is found that all models produce satisfactory prediction intervals, except for the autoregressive model. In particular, those based on the biascorrected bootstrap perform best in general, providing tight intervals with accurate coverage rates, especially when the forecast horizon is long.

Shared generation of pseudo-random functions with cumulative maps

In Crypto’95, Micali and Sidney proposed a method for shared generation of a pseudo-random function f(·) among n players in such a way that for all the inputs x, any u players can compute f(x) while t or fewer players fail to do so, where 0 ≤ t < u ≤ n. The idea behind the Micali-Sidney scheme is to generate and distribute secret seeds S = s1, . . . , sd of a poly-random collection of functions, among the n players, each player gets a subset of S, in such a way that any u players together hold all the secret seeds in S while any t or fewer players will lack at least one element from S. The pseudo-random function is then computed as where f s i (·)’s are poly-random functions. One question raised by Micali and Sidney is how to distribute the secret seeds satisfying the above condition such that the number of seeds, d, is as small as possible. In this paper, we continue the work of Micali and Sidney. We first provide a general framework for shared generation of pseudo-random function using cumulative maps. We demonstrate that the Micali-Sidney scheme is a special case of this general construction.We then derive an upper and a lower bound for d. Finally we give a simple, yet efficient, approximation greedy algorithm for generating the secret seeds S in which d is close to the optimum by a factor of at most u ln 2.

Lose yourself in books no more - interactive maps show the way

This article explores the use of digital technology such as interactive maps to enhance books.

Role of the N-terminal region in G protein-coupled receptor functions : negative modulation revealed by 5-HT2B receptor polymorphisms

The putative role of the N-terminal region of rhodopsin-like 7 transmembrane biogenic amine receptors in agonist-induced signaling has not yet been clarified despite recent advances in 7 transmembrane receptor structural biology. Given the existence of N-terminal nonsynonymous polymorphisms (R6G;E42G) within the HTR2B gene in a drug-abusing population, we assessed whether these polymorphisms affect 5-hydroxytryptamine 2B (5-HT2B) receptor in vitro pharmacologic and coupling properties in transfected COS-7 cells. Modification of the 5-HT2B receptor N terminus by the R6G;E42G polymorphisms increases such agonist signaling pathways as inositol phosphate accumulation as assessed by either classic or operational models. The N-terminal R6G;E42G mutations of the 5-HT2B receptor also increase cell proliferation and slow its desensitization kinetics compared with the wild-type receptor, further supporting a role for the N terminus in transduction efficacy. Furthermore, by coexpressing a tethered wild-type 5-HT2B receptor N terminus with a 5-HT2B receptor bearing a N-terminal deletion, we were able to restore original coupling. This reversion to normal activity of a truncated 5-HT2B receptor by coexpression of the membrane-tethered wild-type 5-HT2B receptor N terminus was not observed using a membrane-tethered 5-HT2B receptor R6G;E42G N terminus. These data suggest that the N terminus exerts a negative control over basal as well as agonist-stimulated receptor activity that is lost in the R6G;E42G mutant. Our findings reveal a new and unanticipated role of the 5-HT2B receptor N terminus as a negative modulator, affecting both constitutive and agonist-stimulated activity. Moreover, our data caution against excluding the N terminus and extracellular loops in structural studies of this 7 transmembrane receptor family

Knowledge Transfer in Transnational Programmes : Opportunities and Challenges for the Pacific Region

The globalised world: The current higher education community The last decade has seen rapid changes in the landscape of higher education (HE) throughout the world, largely as a product of globalisation. A major effect has been to propel the interconnectedness between nations and people across the globe (Scholte, 2005). The use of information and communication technology (ICT) has diminished the distance between countries. The world’s economies are becoming more integrated and interrelated through neoliberal economic policies, free trade agreements and open access of goods and services beyond national borders, policies promulgated by organisations such as the World Trade Organization and The World Bank (Marginson & Ordorika, 2011; Mok, 2011). As a consequence, universities are operating at global, national and local levels simultaneously. In the Pacific region, new universities are emerging. For example, Fiji now has one regional and two national universities; Samoa has a national university and Solomon Islands has an institute of higher education. These new players add to regional competition as they open opportunities for global partnerships and transnational programmes. Thus, participating at these multiple levels is inevitable, and no university is immune to these changes (Marginson, Kaur & Sawir, 2011a). Universities are now part of the global HE community that cannot be confined within a nation’s borders. Transitional HE programmes are perhaps one of the most evident demonstrations of the interconnectedness of universities across countries in this global era.

Effect of the increase in "alcopops" tax on alcohol-related harms in young people : a controlled interrupted time series

Objective: To measure alcohol-related harms to the health of young people presenting to emergency departments (EDs) of Gold Coast public hospitals before and after the increase in the federal government "alcopops" tax in 2008. Design, setting and participants: Interrupted time series analysis over 5 years (28 April 2005 to 27 April 2010) of 15-29-year-olds presenting to EDs with alcohol-related harms compared with presentations of selected control groups. Main outcome measures: Proportion of 15-29-year-olds presenting to EDs with alcohol-related harms compared with (i) 30-49-year-olds with alcohol-related harms, (ii)15-29-year-olds with asthma or appendicitis, and (iii) 15-29-yearolds with any non-alcohol and non-injury related ED presentation. Results: Over a third of 15-29-year-olds presented to ED with alcohol-related conditions, as opposed to around a quarter for all other age groups. There was no significant decrease in alcohol-related ED presentations of 15-29-year-olds compared with any of the control groups after the increase in the tax. We found similar results for males and females, narrow and broad definitions of alcoholrelated harms, under-19s, and visitors to and residents of the Gold Coast. Conclusions: The increase in the tax on al copops was not associated with any reduction in alcohol-related harms in this population in a unique tourist and holiday region. A more comprehensive approach to reducing alcohol harms in young people is needed.

Amanda Gearing Queensland Flood Collection 2011-2012

A collection of oral history recordings, photographs, hand drawn maps, videos and speech notes relating to the 2011 Queensland floods and the major flood event that occurred in Toowoomba and the Lockyer Valley region on 10 January 2011: a flash flood (described as an 'inland tsunami') which devastatingly took 21 human lives. The collection, amassed by Toowoomba-based journalist Amanda Gearing for her Master of Arts degree, includes 86 oral history recordings of flood survivors and rescuers in Spring Bluff, Murphys Creek, Toowoomba, Withcott, Postmans Ridge, Helidon, Carpendale and Grantham as well as digital photographs and videos taken by a number of those interviewed including those taken by Amanda Gearing and other locals. The interviews are very personal and powerful recollections of the experience of the flood event. Some recall feelings of fear and despair and tell of trauma and loss which continues well after the flood event. All are stories of resilience and hope, of rebuilding lives, of lessons learnt, and recommendations in order to avoid the same devastating results in future disasters.

Fine-mapping the HOXB region detects common variants tagging a rare coding allele : evidence for synthetic association in prostate cancer

The HOXB13 gene has been implicated in prostate cancer (PrCa) susceptibility. We performed a high resolution fine-mapping analysis to comprehensively evaluate the association between common genetic variation across the HOXB genetic locus at 17q21 and PrCa risk. This involved genotyping 700 SNPs using a custom Illumina iSelect array (iCOGS) followed by imputation of 3195 SNPs in 20,440 PrCa cases and 21,469 controls in The PRACTICAL consortium. We identified a cluster of highly correlated common variants situated within or closely upstream of HOXB13 that were significantly associated with PrCa risk, described by rs117576373 (OR 1.30, P = 2.62×10(-14)). Additional genotyping, conditional regression and haplotype analyses indicated that the newly identified common variants tag a rare, partially correlated coding variant in the HOXB13 gene (G84E, rs138213197), which has been identified recently as a moderate penetrance PrCa susceptibility allele. The potential for GWAS associations detected through common SNPs to be driven by rare causal variants with higher relative risks has long been proposed; however, to our knowledge this is the first experimental evidence for this phenomenon of synthetic association contributing to cancer susceptibility.

Genetic divergence and echolocation call frequency in cryptic species of Hipposideros larvatus s.l. (Chiroptera : Hipposideridae) from the Indo-Malayan region

The intermediate leaf-nosed bat (Hipposideros larvatus) is a medium-sized bat distributed throughout the Indo-Malay region. In north-east India, bats identified as H. larvatus captured at a single cave emitted echolocation calls with a bimodal distribution of peak frequencies, around either 85 kHz or 98 kHz. Individuals echolocating at 85 kHz had larger ears and longer forearms than those echolocating at 98 kHz, although no differences were detected in either wing morphology or diet, suggesting limited resource partitioning. A comparison of mitochondrial control region haplotypes of the two phonic types with individuals sampled from across the Indo-Malay range supports the hypothesis that, in India, two cryptic species are present. The Indian 98-kHz phonic bats formed a monophyletic clade with bats from all other regional populations sampled, to the exclusion of the Indian 85-kHz bats. In India, the two forms showed 12–13% sequence divergence and we propose that the name Hipposideros khasiana for bats of the 85-kHz phonic type. Bats of the 98-kHz phonic type formed a monophyletic group with bats from Myanmar, and corresponded to Hipposideros grandis, which is suggested to be a species distinct from Hipposideros larvatus. Differences in echolocation call frequency among populations did not reflect phylogenetic relationships, indicating that call frequency is a poor indicator of evolutionary history. Instead, divergence in call frequency probably occurs in allopatry, possibly augmented by character displacement on secondary contact to facilitate intraspecific communication.

Heat maps for aggregating bioacoustic annotations

In our large library of annotated environmental recordings of animal vocalizations, searching annotations by label can return thousands of results. We propose a heat map of aggregated annotation time and frequency bounds, maintaining the shape of the annotations as they appear on the spectrogram. This compactly displays the distribution of annotation bounds for the user's query, and allows them to easily identify unusual annotations. Key to this is allowing zero values on the map to be differentiated from areas where there are single annotations.

Functional brain maps of Tower of London performance : a positron emission tomography and functional magnetic resonance imaging study

Regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) and blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) contrasts represent different physiological measures of brain activation. The present study aimed to compare two functional brain imaging techniques (functional magnetic resonance imaging versus [15O] positron emission tomography) when using Tower of London (TOL) problems as the activation task. A categorical analysis (task versus baseline) revealed a significant BOLD increase bilaterally for the dorsolateral prefrontal and inferior parietal cortex and for the cerebellum. A parametric haemodynamic response model (or regression analysis) confirmed a task-difficulty-dependent increase of BOLD and rCBF for the cerebellum and the left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. In line with previous studies, a task-difficulty-dependent increase of left-hemispheric rCBF was also detected for the premotor cortex, cingulate, precuneus, and globus pallidus. These results imply consistency across the two neuroimaging modalities, particularly for the assessment of prefrontal brain function when using a parametric TOL adaptation.

Integrating field survey data with satellite image data to improve shallow water seagrass maps : the role of AUV and snorkeller surveys

Repeatable and accurate seagrass mapping is required for understanding seagrass ecology and supporting management decisions. For shallow (< 5 m) seagrass habitats, these maps can be created by integrating high spatial resolution imagery with field survey data. Field survey data for seagrass is often collected via snorkelling or diving. However, these methods are limited by environmental and safety considerations. Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) are used increasingly to collect field data for habitat mapping, albeit mostly in deeper waters (>20 m). Here we demonstrate and evaluate the use and potential advantages of AUV field data collection for calibration and validation of seagrass habitat mapping of shallow waters (< 5 m), from multispectral satellite imagery. The study was conducted in the seagrass habitats of the Eastern Banks (142 km2), Moreton Bay, Australia. In the field, georeferenced photos of the seagrass were collected along transects via snorkelling or an AUV. Photos from both collection methods were analysed manually for seagrass species composition and then used as calibration and validation data to map seagrass using an established semi-automated object based mapping routine. A comparison of the relative advantages and disadvantages of AUV and snorkeller collected field data sets and their influence on the mapping routine was conducted. AUV data collection was more consistent, repeatable and safer in comparison to snorkeller transects. Inclusion of deeper water AUV data resulted in mapping of a larger extent of seagrass (~7 km2, 5 % of study area) in the deeper waters of the site. Although overall map accuracies did not differ considerably, inclusion of the AUV data from deeper water transects corrected errors in seagrass mapped at depths to 5 m, but where the bottom is visible on satellite imagery. Our results demonstrate that further development of AUV technology is justified for the monitoring of seagrass habitats in ongoing management programs.