930 resultados para Models for the evaluation of credibility and reputation


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Studies of behaviour are increasingly focusing on acquisition of traits through cultural inheritance. Comparison of patterns of spatial population structure (FST) between neutral genetic loci and behavioural or cultural traits can been used to test hypotheses about demography, life history, and the mechanisms of inheritance/transmission of these traits in humans, chimpanzees and other animals. Here, we develop analytical expectations to show how FST in cultural traits can differ strongly from that measured at neutral genetic markers if migration is largely restricted to one sex but social learning is predominantly modelled on the other (e.g. males migrate, females serve as models for cultural traits), if one individual is the learning model for many, or if rates of innovation (individual learning) are high or rates of social learning are low. We discuss how comparisons of FST between genetic loci and behavioural traits can be applied to evaluate the importance of innovation in shaping patterns of cultural differentiation, as even low rates of innovation can considerably reduce FST, relative to observed structure at neutral genetic loci. Our results also suggest that differentiation in neutral cultural traits should occur over much smaller scales in species with male migration and female enculturation (or the reverse).

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BACKGROUND: The Mediterranean diet has a beneficial role on various neoplasms, but data are scanty on oral cavity and pharyngeal (OCP) cancer. METHODS: We analysed data from a case-control study carried out between 1997 and 2009 in Italy and Switzerland, including 768 incident, histologically confirmed OCP cancer cases and 2078 hospital controls. Adherence to the Mediterranean diet was measured using the Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS) based on the major characteristics of the Mediterranean diet, and two other scores, the Mediterranean Dietary Pattern Adherence Index (MDP) and the Mediterranean Adequacy Index (MAI). RESULTS: We estimated the odds ratios (ORs), and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI), for increasing levels of the scores (i.e., increasing adherence) using multiple logistic regression models. We found a reduced risk of OCP cancer for increasing levels of the MDS, the ORs for subjects with six or more MDS components compared with two or less being 0.20 (95% CI 0.14-0.28, P-value for trend <0.0001). The ORs for the highest vs the lowest quintile were 0.20 (95% CI 0.14-0.28) for the MDP score (score 66.2 or more vs less than 57.9), and 0.48 (95% CI 0.33-0.69) for the MAI score (score value 2.1 or more vs value less 0.92), with significant trends of decreasing risk for both scores. The favourable effect of the Mediterranean diet was apparently stronger in younger subjects, in those with a higher level of education, and in ex-smokers, although it was observed in other strata as well. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides strong evidence of a beneficial role of the Mediterranean diet on OCP cancer.

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A number of claims have been made that polymer modified asphalt cements, multi-grade asphalt cements, and other modifications of the liquid asphalt will prevent rutting and other deterioration of asphalt mixes, thereby, extending the service life of asphalt pavements. This laboratory study evaluates regular AC-20 asphalt cement, PAC-30 polymer modified asphalt cement and AC-10-30 multi-grade asphalt cement. PAC-30 was also evaluated with 15% Gilsonite and 15% Witcurb in a 75% crushed stone - 25% sand mix. These mixtures were evaluated for all Marshall properties along with indirect tensile, resilient modulus, and creep resistance.

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An understanding of details of the interaction mechanisms of bacterial endotoxins (lipopolysaccharide, LPS) with the oxygen transport protein hemoglobin is still lacking, despite its high biological relevance. Here, a biophysical investigation into the endotoxin:hemoglobin interaction is presented which comprises the use of various rough mutant LPS as well as free lipid A; in addition to the complete hemoglobin molecule from fetal sheep extract, also the partial structure alpha-chain and the heme-free sample are studied. The investigations comprise the determination of the gel-to-liquid crystalline phase behaviour of the acyl chains of LPS, the ultrastructure (type of aggregate structure and morphology) of the endotoxins, and the incorporation of the hemoglobins into artificial immune cell membranes and into LPS. Our data suggest a model for the interaction between Hb and LPS in which hemoglobins do not react strongly with the hydrophilic or with the hydrophobic moiety of LPS, but with the complete endotoxin aggregate. Hb is able to incorporate into LPS with the longitudinal direction parallel to the lipid A double-layer. Although this does not lead to a strong disturbance of the LPS acyl chain packing, the change of the curvature leads to a slightly conical molecular shape with a change of the three-dimensional arrangement from unilamellar into cubic LPS aggregates. Our previous results show that cubic LPS structures exhibit strong endotoxic activity. The property of Hb on the physical state of LPS described here may explain the observation of an increase in LPS-mediating endotoxicity due to the action of Hb.

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This study was undertaken to evaluate the suitability of various stones which play an important role in the properties of compacted mixtures in asphalt treated bases. The determination of the effect of water temperature on the cohesion of the mixes is investigated. A number of stones were prepared for the test. Attention is paid to the particular source of stone with the corresponding test results. A preliminary study of the effect of lime when added to mixed aggregate was also conducted. The purpose of this study is to provide needed information on the cohesive characteristics of asphalt treated bases using a wide range of stones. This study is also to evaluate the suitability of the various stone sources.

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Many rural communities have developed around highways or major county roads; as a result, the main street through small rural communities is often part of a high-speed rural highway. Highways and county roads are characterized by high speeds outside the city limits; they then transition into a reduced speed section through the rural community. Consequently, drivers passing through the community often enter at high speeds and maintain those speeds as they travel through the community. Traffic calming in small rural communities along major roadways is common in Europe, but the U.S. does not have experience with applying traffic-calming measures outside of major urban areas. The purpose of the project was to evaluate traffic-calming treatments on the major road through small Iowa communities using either single-measure low-cost or gateway treatments. The project was partially funded by the Iowa Highway Research Board (IHRB). The focus of the IHRB portion was to evaluate single-measure, low-cost, traffic-calming measures that are appropriate to major roads through small rural communities. Seven different low-cost traffic treatments were implemented and evaluated in five rural Iowa communities. The research evaluated the use of two gateway treatments in Union and Roland; five single-measure treatments (speed table, on-pavement “SLOW” markings, a driver speed feedback sign, tubular markers, and on-pavement entrance treatments) were evaluated in Gilbert, Slater, and Dexter.

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Purpose: To assess the value of cerebral perfusion CT (PCT) in children with traumatic brain injury in prediciting their consecutive clinical outcome. Materials and methods: Twelve paediatric patients with acute traumatic brain injury underwent cerebral CT coupled with PCT during their admission at the emergency room (ER). PCT maps were reviewed for mean transit time (MTT), regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) and regional cerebral blood volume (rCBV) abnormalities. PCT results were compared to short- and mid-term clinical outcome. Results: 3 patients with low Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) (98) and bad clinical outcome showed an increased MTT and decreased rCBV and rCBF. 5 patients with low GCS and good clinical outcome showed an increased MTT without abnormalities of rCBV and rCBF. In patients with GCS 08 and good outcome, PCT maps were normal in 2 cases; transient PCT abnormalities were identified in one case with an embedded fracture of the skull and in one case with an epileptic seizure. Conclusion: Cerebral PCT can identify diffuse abnormalities of cerebral perfusion in children with traumatic brain injury showing a low initial GCS and a bad outcome. PCT can be a valuable tool to predict the severity of the prognosis of these patients as soon as they are evaluated by CT-scan during their admission at the ER.

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The bio-economic model "Heures" is a first attempt to develop a simulation procedure to understand the Northwestern Mediterranean fisheries, to evaluate management strategies and to analyze the feasibility of implementing an adaptative management. The model is built on the interaction among three boxes simulating the dynamics of each of the basic actors of a fishery: the stock, the market and the fishermen. A fourth actor, the manager, imposes or modifies the rules, or, in terms of the model, modifies some particular parameters. Thus, the model allows us to simulate and evaluate the mid-term biologic and economic effects of particular management measures. The bio-economic nature of the model is given by the interaction among the three boxes, by the market simulation and, particularly, by the fishermen behaviour. This last element confers to the model its Mediterranean"selfregulated" character. The fishermen allocate their investments to maximize fishing mortality but, having a legal effort limit, they invest in maintenance and technology in order to increase the catchability, which, as a consequence. will be function of the invested capital.

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Background:Besides tobacco and alcohol, dietary habits may have a relevant role in oral cavity and pharyngeal (OCP) cancer.Methods:We analysed the role of selected food groups and nutrients on OCP cancer in a case-control study carried out between 1997 and 2009 in Italy and Switzerland. This included 768 incident, histologically confirmed squamous cell carcinoma cases and 2078 hospital controls. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated using logistic regression models including terms for tobacco, alcohol and other relevant covariates.Results:Significant inverse trends in risk were observed for all vegetables (OR=0.19, for the highest vs the lowest consumption) and all fruits (OR=0.39), whereas significant direct associations were found for milk and dairy products (OR=1.50), eggs (OR=1.71), red meat (OR=1.55), potatoes (OR=1.85) and desserts (OR=1.68), although trends in risk were significant only for potatoes and desserts. With reference to nutrients, significant inverse relations were observed for vegetable protein (OR=0.45, for the highest vs the lowest quintile), vegetable fat (OR=0.54), polyunsaturated fatty acids (OR=0.53), α-carotene (OR=0.51), β-carotene (OR=0.28), β-cryptoxanthin (OR=0.37), lutein and zeazanthin (OR=0.34), vitamin E (OR=0.26), vitamin C (OR=0.40) and total folate (OR=0.34), whereas direct ones were observed for animal protein (OR=1.57), animal fat (OR=2.47), saturated fatty acids (OR=2.18), cholesterol (OR=2.29) and retinol (OR=1.88). Combinations of low consumption of fruits and vegetables, and high consumption of meat with high tobacco and alcohol, led to 10- to over 20-fold excess risk of OCP cancer.Conclusion:Our study confirms and further quantifies that a diet rich in fruits and vegetables and poor in meat and products of animal origin has a favourable role against OCP cancer.

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Background: Bone health is a concern when treating early stage breast cancer patients with adjuvant aromatase inhibitors. Early detection of patients (pts) at risk of osteoporosis and fractures may be helpful for starting preventive therapies and selecting the most appropriate endocrine therapy schedule. We present statistical models describing the evolution of lumbar and hip bone mineral density (BMD) in pts treated with tamoxifen (T), letrozole (L) and sequences of T and L. Methods: Available dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry exams (DXA) of pts treated in trial BIG 1-98 were retrospectively collected from Swiss centers. Treatment arms: A) T for 5 years, B) L for 5 years, C) 2 years of T followed by 3 years of L and, D) 2 years of L followed by 3 years of T. Pts without DXA were used as a control for detecting selection biases. Patients randomized to arm A were subsequently allowed an unplanned switch from T to L. Allowing for variations between DXA machines and centres, two repeated measures models, using a covariance structure that allow for different times between DXA, were used to estimate changes in hip and lumbar BMD (g/cm2) from trial randomization. Prospectively defined covariates, considered as fixed effects in the multivariable models in an intention to treat analysis, at the time of trial randomization were: age, height, weight, hysterectomy, race, known osteoporosis, tobacco use, prior bone fracture, prior hormone replacement therapy (HRT), bisphosphonate use and previous neo-/adjuvant chemotherapy (ChT). Similarly, the T-scores for lumbar and hip BMD measurements were modeled using a per-protocol approach (allowing for treatment switch in arm A), specifically studying the effect of each therapy upon T-score percentage. Results: A total of 247 out of 546 pts had between 1 and 5 DXA; a total of 576 DXA were collected. Number of DXA measurements per arm were; arm A 133, B 137, C 141 and D 135. The median follow-up time was 5.8 years. Significant factors positively correlated with lumbar and hip BMD in the multivariate analysis were weight, previous HRT use, neo-/adjuvant ChT, hysterectomy and height. Significant negatively correlated factors in the models were osteoporosis, treatment arm (B/C/D vs. A), time since endocrine therapy start, age and smoking (current vs. never).Modeling the T-score percentage, differences from T to L were -4.199% (p = 0.036) and -4.907% (p = 0.025) for the hip and lumbar measurements respectively, before any treatment switch occurred. Conclusions: Our statistical models describe the lumbar and hip BMD evolution for pts treated with L and/or T. The results of both localisations confirm that, contrary to expectation, the sequential schedules do not seem less detrimental for the BMD than L monotherapy. The estimated difference in BMD T-score percent is at least 4% from T to L.

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Tribal war occurs when a coalition of individuals use force to seize reproduction-enhancing resources, and it may have affected human evolution. Here, we develop a population-genetic model for the coevolution of costly male belligerence and bravery when war occurs between groups of individuals in a spatially subdivided population. Belligerence is assumed to increase an actor's group probability of trying to conquer another group. An actor's bravery is assumed to increase his group's ability to conquer an attacked group. We show that the selective pressure on these two traits can be substantial even in groups of large size, and that they may be driven by two independent reproduction-enhancing resources: additional mates for males and additional territory (or material resources) for females. This has consequences for our understanding of the evolution of intertribal interactions, as hunter-gatherer societies are well known to have frequently raided neighbouring groups from whom they appropriated territory, goods and women.

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Concrete paving is often at a disadvantage in terms of pavement type selection due to the time of curing required prior to opening the pavement to traffic. The State of Iowa has been able to reduce traffic delay constraints through material selection and construction methods to date. Methods for monitoring concrete strength gain and quality have not changed since the first concrete pavements were constructed in Iowa. In 1995, Lee County and the Iowa DOT cooperated in a research project, HR-380, to construct a 7.1 mile (11. 43 km) project to evaluate the use of maturity and pulse velocity nondestructive testing (NDT) methods in the estimation of concrete strength gain. The research identified the pros and cons of each method and suggested an instructional memorandum to utilize maturity measurements to meet traffic delay demands. Maturity was used to reduce the traffic delay opening time from 5-7 days to less than 2 days through the implementation of maturity measurements and special traffic control measures. Recommendations on the development of the maturity curve for each project and the location and monitoring of the maturity thermocouples are included. Examples of equipment that could easily be used by project personnel to estimate the concrete strength using the maturity methods is described.

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Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus exhibit a marked increase in cardiovascular and renal risk. A number of interventional trials have shown that these patients benefit greatly from aggressive BP lowering, especially when the drug regimen comprises an inhibitor of the renin-angiotensin system. The results of the placebo-controlled ADVANCE (Action in Diabetes and Vascular disease: PreterAx and DiamicroN MR Controlled Evaluation) trial, conducted in patients with type 2 diabetes, are exemplary in this respect. The systematic use of a fixed-dose combination containing the ACE inhibitor perindopril and the diuretic indapamide afforded substantial protection against cardiovascular mortality and myocardial infarction, while providing important renoprotection, reducing the development of micro- and macroalbuminuria, and allowing regression of nephropathy. The beneficial effects were obtained regardless of baseline BP and whether or not the patients were receiving antihypertensive therapy.

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Purpose: To assess the feasibility of a method based on microwave spectrometry to detect structural distortions of metallic stents in open air conditions and envisage the prospects of this approach toward possible medical applicability for the evaluation of implanted stents. Methods: Microwave absorbance spectra between 2.0 and 18.0 GHz were acquired in open air for the characterization of a set of commercial stents using a specifically design setup. Rotating each sample over 360º, 2D absorbance diagrams were generated as a function of frequency and rotation angle. To check our approach for detecting changes in stent length (fracture) and diameter (recoil), two specific tests were performed in open air. Finally, with a few adjustments, this same system provides 2D absorbance diagrams of stents immersed in a water-based phantom, this time over a bandwidth ranging from 0.2 to 1.8 GHz. Results: The authors show that metallic stents exhibit characteristic resonant frequencies in their microwave absorbance spectra in open air which depend on their length and, as a result, may reflect the occurrence of structural distortions. These resonances can be understood considering that such devices behave like dipole antennas in terms of microwave scattering. From fracture tests, the authors infer that microwave spectrometry provides signs of presence of Type I to Type IV stent fractures and allows in particular a quantitative evaluation of Type III and Type IV fractures. Recoil tests show that microwave spectrometry seems able to provide some quantitative assessment of diametrical shrinkage, but only if it involves longitudinal shortening. Finally, the authors observe that the resonant frequencies of stents placed inside the phantom shift down with respect to the corresponding open air frequencies, as it should be expected considering the increase of dielectric permittivity from air to water. Conclusions: The evaluation of stent resonant frequencies provided by microwave spectrometry allows detection and some quantitative assessment of stent fracture and recoil in open air conditions. Resonances of stents immersed in water can be also detected and their characteristic frequencies are in good agreement with theoretical estimates. Although these are promising results, further verifica tion in a more relevant phantom is required in order to foresee the real potential of this approach.

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Background: In longitudinal studies where subjects experience recurrent incidents over a period of time, such as respiratory infections, fever or diarrhea, statistical methods are required to take into account the within-subject correlation. Methods: For repeated events data with censored failure, the independent increment (AG), marginal (WLW) and conditional (PWP) models are three multiple failure models that generalize Cox"s proportional hazard model. In this paper, we revise the efficiency, accuracy and robustness of all three models under simulated scenarios with varying degrees of within-subject correlation, censoring levels, maximum number of possible recurrences and sample size. We also study the methods performance on a real dataset from a cohort study with bronchial obstruction. Results: We find substantial differences between methods and there is not an optimal method. AG and PWP seem to be preferable to WLW for low correlation levels but the situation reverts for high correlations. Conclusions: All methods are stable in front of censoring, worsen with increasing recurrence levels and share a bias problem which, among other consequences, makes asymptotic normal confidence intervals not fully reliable, although they are well developed theoretically.