Education and wages of vocational training graduates

[EN] This paper attempts to explain individual variation in wages by estimating different wage equations. The study has two goals: first, to analyze the effect of years of schooling on the wages of vocational training graduates using a more precise measure for schooling than that commonly used in wage equations; and second, to analyze the effect on these wages of the match or mismatch between the knowledge and the skills acquired in the schooling and the needs of the job. The analysis shows that knowledge and skills acquired through vocational training (over-/under- education and over-/under- skilling), have a statistically significant influence on wages.

Analysis of the impact of globalization and economic growth on food security in developing countries

A pesar de los importantes avances en la reducción del hambre, la seguridad alimentaria continúa siendo un reto de dimensión internacional. La seguridad alimentaria es un concepto amplio y multidimensional, cuyo análisis abarca distintas escalas y horizontes temporales. Dada su complejidad, la identificación de las causas de la inseguridad alimentaria y la priorización de las medias para abordarlas, son dos cuestiones que suscitan un intenso debate en la actualidad. El objetivo de esta tesis es evaluar el impacto de la globalización y el crecimiento económico en la seguridad alimentaria en los países en desarrollo, desde una perspectiva macro y un horizonte temporal a largo plazo. La influencia de la globalización se aborda de una manera secuencial. En primer lugar, se analiza la relación entre la inversión público-privada en infraestructuras y las exportaciones agrarias. A continuación, se estudia el impacto de las exportaciones agrarias en los indicadores de seguridad alimentaria. El estudio del impacto del crecimiento económico aborda los cambios paralelos en la distribución de la renta, y cómo la inequidad influye en el comportamiento de la seguridad alimentaria nacional. Además, se analiza en qué medida el crecimiento económico contribuye a acelerar el proceso de mejora de la seguridad alimentaria. Con el fin de conseguir los objetivos mencionados, se llevan a cabo varios análisis econométricos basados en datos de panel, en el que se combinan datos de corte transversal de 52 países y datos temporales comprendidos en el periodo 1991-2012. Se analizan tanto variables en niveles como variables en tasas de cambio anual. Se aplican los modelos de estimación de efectos variables y efectos fijos, ambos en niveles y en primeras diferencias. La tesis incluye cuatro tipos de modelos econométricos, cada uno de ellos con sus correspondientes pruebas de robustez y especificaciones. Los resultados matizan la importancia de la globalización y el crecimiento económico como mecanismos de mejora de la seguridad alimentaria en los países en desarrollo. Se obtienen dos conclusiones relativas a la globalización. En primer lugar, los resultados sugieren que la promoción de las inversiones privadas en infraestructuras contribuye a aumentar las exportaciones agrarias. En segundo lugar, se observa que las exportaciones agrarias pueden tener un impacto negativo en los indicadores de seguridad alimentaria. La combinación de estas dos conclusiones sugiere que la apertura comercial y financiera no contribuye por sí misma a la mejora de la seguridad alimentaria en los países en desarrollo. La apertura internacional de los países en desarrollo ha de ir acompañada de políticas e inversiones que desarrollen sectores productivos de alto valor añadido, que fortalezcan la economía nacional y reduzcan su dependencia exterior. En relación al crecimiento económico, a pesar del incuestionable hecho de que el crecimiento económico es una condición necesaria para reducir los niveles de subnutrición, no es una condición suficiente. Se han identificado tres estrategias adicionales que han de acompañar al crecimiento económico con el fin de intensificar su impacto positivo sobre la subnutrición. Primero, es necesario que el crecimiento económico sea acompañado de una distribución más equitativa de los ingresos. Segundo, el crecimiento económico ha de reflejarse en un aumento de inversiones en salud, agua y saneamiento y educación. Se observa que, incluso en ausencia de crecimiento económico, mejoras en el acceso a agua potable contribuyen a reducir los niveles de población subnutrida. Tercero, el crecimiento económico sostenible en el largo plazo parece tener un mayor impacto positivo sobre la seguridad alimentaria que el crecimiento económico más volátil o inestable en el corto plazo. La estabilidad macroeconómica se identifica como una condición necesaria para alcanzar una mayor mejora en la seguridad alimentaria, incluso habiéndose mejorado la equidad en la distribución de los ingresos. Por último, la tesis encuentra que los países en desarrollo analizados han experimentado diferentes trayectorias no lineales en su proceso de mejora de sus niveles de subnutrición. Los resultados sugieren que un mayor nivel inicial de subnutrición y el crecimiento económico son responsables de una respuesta más rápida al reto de la mejora de la seguridad alimentaria. ABSTRACT Despite the significant reductions of hunger, food security still remains a global challenge. Food security is a wide concept that embraces multiple dimensions, and has spatial-temporal scales. Because of its complexity, the identification of the drivers underpinning food insecurity and the prioritization of measures to address them are a subject of intensive debate. This thesis attempts to assess the impact of globalization and economic growth on food security in developing countries with a macro level scale (country) and using a long-term approach. The influence of globalization is addressed in a sequential way. First, the impact of public-private investment in infrastructure on agricultural exports in developing countries is analyzed. Secondly, an assessment is conducted to determine the impact of agricultural exports on food security indicators. The impact of economic growth focuses on the parallel changes in income inequality and how the income distribution influences countries' food security performance. Furthermore, the thesis analyzes to what extent economic growth helps accelerating food security improvements. To address the above mentioned goals, various econometric models are formulated. Models use panel data procedures combining cross-sectional data of 52 countries and time series data from 1991 to 2012. Yearly data are expressed both in levels and in changes. The estimation models applied are random effects estimation and fixed effects estimations, both in levels and in first differences. The thesis includes four families of econometric models, each with its own set of robustness checks and specifications. The results qualify the relevance of globalization and economic growth as enabling mechanisms for improving food security in developing countries. Concerning globalization, two main conclusions can be drawn. First, results showed that enhancing foreign private investment in infrastructures contributes to increase agricultural exports. Second, agricultural exports appear to have a negative impact on national food security indicators. These two conclusions suggest that trade and financial openness per se do not contribute directly to improve food security in development countries. Both measures should be accompanied by investments and policies to support the development of national high value productive sectors, to strengthen the domestic economy and reduce its external dependency. Referring to economic growth, despite the unquestionable fact that income growth is a pre-requisite for reducing undernourishment, results suggest that it is a necessary but not a sufficient condition. Three additional strategies should accompany economic growth to intensifying its impact on food security. Firstly, it is necessary that income growth should be accompanied by a better distribution of income. Secondly, income growth needs to be followed by investments and policies in health, sanitation and education to improve food security. Even if economic growth falters, sustained improvements in the access to drinking water may still give rise to reductions in the percentage of undernourished people. And thirdly, long-term economic growth appears to have a greater impact on reducing hunger than growth regimes that combine periods of growth peaks followed by troughs. Macroeconomic stability is a necessary condition for accelerating food security. Finally, the thesis finds that the developing countries analyzed have experienced different non-linear paths toward improving food security. Results also show that a higher initial level of undernourishment and economic growth result in a faster response for improving food security.

Certificação da sustentabilidade de edifícios de escritórios corporativos no Brasil.

O crescimento industrial, comercial e de serviços traz para as sociedades mais evoluídas uma série de benefícios, como o desenvolvimento econômico e o crescimento populacional, aliados a maiores oportunidades de emprego e renda. Entretanto, pela falta de uma consciência mais apurada sobre os possíveis impactos negativos de ritmo acelerado de crescimento, acaba-se verificando uma série de problemas sociais e, sobretudo, ambientais. Em razão disso, nos últimos anos, constata-se a preocupação de alguns setores da sociedade na busca do desenvolvimento fundamentado em práticas mais sustentáveis. Isso não tem sido diferente no setor da construção civil. A preocupação com a sustentabilidade nos empreendimentos é tema e foco de diversos eventos, tanto no meio acadêmico, como no profissional e governamental. Particularmente, o segmento de mercado de EDIFÍCIOS DE ESCRITÓRIOS CORPORATIVOS tem sido alvo de pressão para o uso de práticas mais sustentáveis em todo o seu ciclo de vida, desde sua concepção, projeto, implantação e operação até a sua revitalização. Para aferir a sustentabilidade dos EDIFÍCIOS DE ESCRITÓRIOS CORPORATIVOS, muitas empresas do setor buscam certificações de origem estrangeira, que possuem certas limitações em sua aplicabilidade no Brasil, as quais são discutidas neste trabalho. Neste contexto, esta tese visa à construção da CERTIFICAÇÃO DA SUSTENTABILIDADE DE EDIFÍCIOS DE ESCRITÓRIOS CORPORATIVOS no Brasil, que é oportuna e necessária para tratar das condições de contorno e de realidade nacional. Para isso, foram realizados: [i] levantamento do estado da arte deste tema; [ii] construção da MATRIZ DE ATRIBUTOS para a avaliação da sustentabilidade dos EDIFÍCIOS DE ESCRITÓRIOS CORPORATIVOS; [iii] entrevistas com formadores de opinião deste segmento do mercado imobiliário; [iv] visitas em EDIFÍCIOS DE ESCRITÓRIOS CORPORATIVOS relevantes para as arbitragens iniciais; [v] a construção dos procedimentos, regras e rotina, com testes de validação e calibragem do SISTEMA PARA CLASSIFICAÇÃO.

Valor de marca colectiva: aproximación desde el enfoque de la eficiencia

El objetivo del trabajo consiste en analizar la eficiencia de las empresas que integran una marca colectiva en una industria productora de bienes de experiencia. El supuesto básico es que la marca colectiva tiene un impacto positivo en la eficiencia de las empresas acogidas a la misma, el cual viene explicado porque la reputación colectiva fomenta una inversión eficiente en calidad. Sin embargo, la marca colectiva también puede tener un efecto opuesto sobre los incentivos de una empresa a una inversión en calidad ya que dicha marca puede crear un incentivo a “free ride”. Nuestra propuesta defiende que la interacción entre estos factores opuestos, reputación colectiva y “free ride”, viene moderada por las características de la marca colectiva y de la propia empresa. La metodología aplicada en el contraste de estas hipótesis se apoya en el Análisis Envolvente de Datos para estimar la eficiencia, así como en modelos econométricos para explicar la eficiencia empresarial mediante características de la marca colectiva y de la empresa. Los resultados obtenidos en el ámbito de las bodegas españolas evidencian que las marcas colectivas tienen un impacto positivo sobre la eficiencia, el cual viene moderado por el tamaño de la marca colectiva generando una relación curvilínea en forma de U invertida. Adicionalmente, el volumen de producción de la marca colectiva y el tamaño de las bodegas ejercen un efecto moderador en el impacto del tamaño de la marca colectiva sobre la eficiencia. En general, los resultados ponen de manifiesto la importancia de las marcas colectivas cuando se investigan industrias donde la calidad no es solamente señalizada por una marca típica individual.

Clusters de las Tecnologías de la Información y la Comunicación, Desempeño de las Empresas Locales y Generación de Empleos en Córdoba

Un argumento conocido es que las tecnologías de la información y las comunicaciones (TIC) han creado una brecha digital creciente entre las economías maduras y la de los países de menor desarrollo relativo. A su vez, se plantea con carácter de paradigma, que esta tendencia podría revertirse con la incorporación de incentivos al desarrollo local de industrias TIC en los países menos desarrollados. En los últimos años muchos gobiernos de países en vías de industrialización prestan creciente atención al desarrollo de industrias TIC en sus territorios. En esa promoción se observa, sin embargo, la persistencia de un viejo debate sobre las opciones de aplicar un fuerte “impulso masivo”, o impulsos “hacia adelante” y “hacia atrás”. Por ello resulta de gran interés el estudio de casos exitosos de desarrollo local de empresas TIC que permitan interpretar la naturaleza de las políticas de promoción y el impacto en cuanto a: (i) generación y fortalecimiento de eslabonamientos, con los proveedores, por un lado, y con la demanda, por el otro, (ii) diferenciación según el carácter nacional o multinacional de las empresas impulsoras, (iii) papel de las universidades e institutos de investigación, (iv) efectos sobre la generación de empleo directo e indirecto. Esta propuesta asume que existe la necesidad de comprender mejor el impacto del desarrollo local de ofertas TIC, la interrelación entre firmas locales, firmas locales y multinacionales y entre todas estas, y la capacidad doméstica de investigación, desarrollo e inversión. Un corpus de conocimiento de esta naturaleza es indispensable para que los responsables puedan diseñar las políticas públicas de incentivos adecuadas para generar los estímulos apropiados y contribuir al fortalecimiento del sector. Bajo este enfoque, es que el objetivo general del proyecto es investigar el impacto, en Córdoba, del paradigma TIC en la generación de una oferta local de firmas que elaboran productos y desarrollan servicios TIC, a partir de decisiones empresariales independientes, o como parte de una cadena productiva en la cual interviene una variedad de firmas locales e internacionales. La investigación estará centrada, por una parte, en el estudio de la evolución de los ordenamientos institucionales y legales para la promoción del sector TIC en el país y en Córdoba, y, por la otra, se focalizará en el análisis de los datos de fuente primaria sobre las firmas radicadas en el Gran Córdoba, que elaboran productos y desarrollan servicios TIC. El abordaje conjunto de ambos planos de análisis, permitirá contrastar la principal hipótesis de investigación que postula que, si se proveen entornos adecuados, orientados a facilitar los medios para superar las restricciones económicas, sociales, legales e institucionales, es posible lograr el desarrollo de cadenas productivas de firmas TIC, que generan impacto positivo en el medio local – principalmente el empleo - e integran a firmas domésticas y multinacionales, a centros de investigación, e incluso, a organizaciones de consumidores. Una segunda hipótesis a ser contratada en el trabajo, es que el desarrollo TIC en la provincia de Córdoba respondió a una estrategia de fuerte impulso masivo y servirá como evidencia empírica que contribuya al debate teórico sobre el tema. En la metodología se prevé realizar una recopilación de datos de fuentes secundarias del sector público y privado, a partir de la cual se elaborará un marco general para llevar a cabo la recolección de datos de fuentes primarias, mediante un conjunto de entrevistas en profundidad a informantes calificados y una encuesta a empresas TIC, nacionales y multinacionales, radicadas en el Gran Córdoba. El tratamiento y análisis de los datos comprenderá la elaboración de tablas, gráficos y cálculo de correlaciones e indicadores descriptivos, como así también la aplicación de modelos econométricos de riesgo y de supervivencia con fines predictivos. Los procesamientos se realizarán con el soft STATA.

Revisiting the synthetic control estimator

The synthetic control (SC) method has been recently proposed as an alternative to estimate treatment effects in comparative case studies. The SC relies on the assumption that there is a weighted average of the control units that reconstruct the potential outcome of the treated unit in the absence of treatment. If these weights were known, then one could estimate the counterfactual for the treated unit using this weighted average. With these weights, the SC would provide an unbiased estimator for the treatment effect even if selection into treatment is correlated with the unobserved heterogeneity. In this paper, we revisit the SC method in a linear factor model where the SC weights are considered nuisance parameters that are estimated to construct the SC estimator. We show that, when the number of control units is fixed, the estimated SC weights will generally not converge to the weights that reconstruct the factor loadings of the treated unit, even when the number of pre-intervention periods goes to infinity. As a consequence, the SC estimator will be asymptotically biased if treatment assignment is correlated with the unobserved heterogeneity. The asymptotic bias only vanishes when the variance of the idiosyncratic error goes to zero. We suggest a slight modification in the SC method that guarantees that the SC estimator is asymptotically unbiased and has a lower asymptotic variance than the difference-in-differences (DID) estimator when the DID identification assumption is satisfied. If the DID assumption is not satisfied, then both estimators would be asymptotically biased, and it would not be possible to rank them in terms of their asymptotic bias.

Dynamic D-Vine copula model with applications to Value-at-Risk (VaR)

Regular vine copulas are multivariate dependence models constructed from pair-copulas (bivariate copulas). In this paper, we allow the dependence parameters of the pair-copulas in a D-vine decomposition to be potentially time-varying, following a nonlinear restricted ARMA(1,m) process, in order to obtain a very flexible dependence model for applications to multivariate financial return data. We investigate the dependence among the broad stock market indexes from Germany (DAX), France (CAC 40), Britain (FTSE 100), the United States (S&P 500) and Brazil (IBOVESPA) both in a crisis and in a non-crisis period. We find evidence of stronger dependence among the indexes in bear markets. Surprisingly, though, the dynamic D-vine copula indicates the occurrence of a sharp decrease in dependence between the indexes FTSE and CAC in the beginning of 2011, and also between CAC and DAX during mid-2011 and in the beginning of 2008, suggesting the absence of contagion in these cases. We also evaluate the dynamic D-vine copula with respect to Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasting accuracy in crisis periods. The dynamic D-vine outperforms the static D-vine in terms of predictive accuracy for our real data sets.

Expansão imobiliária na cidade de João Pessoa, no período de 2009-2013: um caso de formação de bolha?

The housing boom recorded in recent years in the city of João Pessoa contributed decisively to the increase in housing supply across the all territory. This advance, however, was accompanied by a significant increase in property prices, which in itself generates enormous expectations on the support of the same medium and long term. From this apparent frame heating the housing market of this Capital. This study empirically examined whether this enhancement configured a typical process of bubble formation between the years 2009 and 2013 in this part of Capital. The empirical price dynamics of the housing market , was based on the indicators of price, rent and cost developed by Bezerra et al. (2013). The results of these local indicators increase the degree of confidence in the hypothesis seen, whatever, that the movement of prices in the main districts of the city of João Pessoa is a real estate bubble

Investimentos internacionais e a valorização imobiliária dos municípios de Maxaranguape e Rio do Fogo

Since the middle of 1970´s the world has been undergoing significant transformations, comes in a new era of global capital accumulation, and starts the called productive restructuring. This restructuring is materialized spatially through the reconfiguration of territory, redefining its uses and providing a new spatial structure. With regard to native of Rio Grande do Norte territory, there is, from the 1980s, the emergence of new economic activities, among which stand out tourism, which become stimulated from government policies. In this context, has stood the east coast of the state, because its beaches have recognized scenic appeal and environmental quality. Therewith business opportunity, international investors ended up investing in this portion of Rio Grande do Norte´s territory, especially over the last decade. The expansion of this process, to the north coast, resulted in the emergence of intense property dynamics in the municipalities of Maxaranguape and Rio do Fogo. The low value of the property and buildings, compared to the European market and the availability of real property, were the main factors that explain the attraction of such investors, who are now seen as new business opportunities with high rates of profitability, in tropical areas, hitherto remote geographical location of the economic system. Therefore, the objective of the research is to analyze to what extent the International Investment promoted the appreciation of property in the municipalities of Maxaranguape and Rio do Fogo. The time frame covers the period among 2000- 2013. The methodology consisted of the following proceedings: surveys and analysis of data collected in the property registry office of the Maxaranguape and Rio do Fogo municipalities; interviews with public and private officials that were important for the analysis of spatial transformations and the recovery of the property that occurred in the municipalities studied; collection of secondary data from official bodies, such as IBGE, MTUR, SETUR, BNB etc. Analyzing the information and data that have been cataloged, it was concluded that this investments are reinforcing old leisure and tourism practices existing in the past in those territories and, shifted (creating new territorial arrangements) a significant part of the eastern coast zone areas of the state. Another consequence connected to this recent phenomenon refers to property’s increase in value that has occurred in this part of the state, episode which is directly connected to that event. Therefore, it is realize that the expansion and the incorporation of the capital territories reveal, in part, the strategies of the capitalist mode of production, which are evident in the search for better conditions of accumulation, expanding the alternative of use of the properties which occurs in selective way and uneven in the geographic space form. It is observed that the mechanisms that capital makes use to impose their practices can happen through the property’s increase in value market, meaning, thereby, that the reproduction of imbalances happens, often, through the marked property speculation with the fast increase in value of properties.

Esquina edifício: uma proposta arquitetônica para um edifício misto

Natal, como outras cidades metropolitanas brasileiras, sofreu nas últimas décadas uma forte transformação impulsionada pelo mercado imobiliário e pela indústria da construção civil. A produção de apartamentos em condomínios fechados vem crescendo e tornando cada vez mais comum, no cenário urbano, a presença de torres residenciais (com extensos muros e grades, fachadas cegas e guaritas) que favorecem o “desurbanismo”. Por outro lado, este tipo de empreendimento, o edifício multifamiliar, apresenta plantas baixas padronizadas as quais frequentemente são incoerentes com a diversidade de perfis dos usuários. A consequência disso são reformas e adequações nos apartamentos após a entrega da obra. Diante deste contexto, elaborei uma proposta arquitetônica, que é apresentada nesta dissertação, como alternativa a essa modalidade de produção que está se tornando dominante no Brasil e em outros países. Dois conceitos nortearam esta proposta: a) o conceito de urbanidade cujo objetivo no projeto arquitetônico é favorecer a percepção do outro (por copresença e/ou cociência) através da permeabilidade, acessos e passagens entre o edifício e o entorno. A maneira como os cheios (barreiras) se estruturam com os vazios foi trabalhada de modo que definissem propriedades espaciais cuja intenção é facilitar o encontro e a diversidade entre moradores e entre estes e os de fora, no entanto sem desconsiderar o problema da violência urbana e, consequentemente a importância da promoção de segurança para os usuários. b) o conceito de flexibilidade a fim de possibilitar ao consumidor final o desmembramento da unidade habitacional em duas e, em especial, a participação e ou escolha na concepção do arranjo interno e da definição dos acabamentos do seu apartamento. Tudo isto durante a construção do empreendimento e ao longo da sua vida útil, favorecendo assim o potencial de diversidade (grupos sociais), adaptabilidade a fases distintas da vida e durabilidade do edifício.

O olhar das instituições de previdência sobre a casa e a cidade: promoção, financiamento e avaliação de imóveis

The investments of Caixas and Institutos de Aposentadoria e Pensões (CAP and IAP) in homes of Natal, between the decades of 1930-60, helped to boost up the local real estate market in consolidation at the time. Inserted in the first national policy on social housing in the country, these operations have demanded the creation of a wide qualified organizational structure, which would be from the "Central Offices" of Rio de Janeiro to the decentralized units of the federal states. The professionals linked to the Local Agencies have developed, on this matter, from activities related to the design and construction of residential complexes, to the daily study of financing proposals in isolated units. As from these studies, the evaluation of shelters was essential to the effectiveness of the policy, resulting in the production of data on the market value of the properties by observing and issuing judgments upon the living quarters of different social groups. Given these considerations, the aim here is to contribute to the understanding on how to operate these real estate actions in the legitimization of boundaries about the urban space and dwellings available to workers in Natal. Therefore, the views of the city and constructions expressed by the evaluating engineers in their technical reports have been taken as the focus. Being the main primary sources of work, these reports are part of the edifices process of CAP/IAP regarding Natal, whose content is systematized in the database "Enterprises", the HCUrb Research Group. In addition, there were used local newspapers at the time and interviews with professionals as complementary sources. It was found that, in general, the evaluations have configured – in a more everyday dimension of bureaucratic routines - a vehicle, among others, circulating ideas about "home" within the social security institutions, being imbued with assumptions historically constructed about the "modern habitat". Filled in loco, the reports expose the clash between modernizing ideals in vogue and clear limitations in the city scenario at the time. Fragmented images of the town are given to read through the labels assigned to the evaluated sites – these being coated of certain "scientific" character - which both legitimated and contributed to the dynamics of appreciation/depreciation of the soil and to the socio-spatial differentiation. Contradictions were evident in the endorsement given by the technicians when financing of admittedly precarious homes for insured disadvantaged categories at the local level - such as industrial workers - while strict regulations were imposed to new construction, designed, above all, to better paid categories. By identifying raters engineers as urban agents, members of a technical-focused operating system for safety and efficiency in the real estate investments of those authorities corporatist, it is desired the usefulness of further studies on these characters, their training, professional activity and participation in the construction of discourses and practices of intervention about the city and its buildings, discussing individual and grouped interests that were left behind.

O Litoral e a metrópole dinâmica imobiliária, turismo e expansão urbana na região metropolitana de Natal-RN

The metropolitan regions of Northeast Brazil are being gradually included in a scenario of international investments, which are motivated by the restructuring of both touristic and real-estate sectors. The new capital, real-estate developers and space configurations that result from this process indicate the need for the creation and implementation of public tools which should, at least, allow the mitigation of the urban impacts and environmental losses resulting from this situation. The effects on landscape and on the socio-spatial configuration result from the intensification caused by the dynamism of the "real estate-tourism" sector. There is a regional integration as an expression of the urban expansion of the metropolitan area of Natal. This study investigates the uniqueness of the restructuring and territorial integration of coastal areas and the strategies of the circuit of capital accumulation formed by linking the real estate to tourism. It is intended to increase the understanding about the strategies of tourism, real estate and public policy agents involved in this territorial reconfiguration and in the fund-raising needed for the investments, to understand the existing social and environmental effects and their future trends and also to understand the forms of spatial production as results from the practices of approaching the land transformation and the tourism valorization of the landscape, in a synchronous manner, first in the Northeast region and, as a focal study, in the Metropolitan Area of Natal. Likewise, it is intended to apprehend the current processes of metropolization of the eastern coast of Rio Grande do Norte, in addition to indicate its physical-territorial transformation and the types of projects/developments promoted by the market in the recent period. Based upon analysis undertaken for the Metropolitan Region of Natal RN, this piece of work presents some considerations on possible legal instruments that can be adjusted to the municipalities which are experiencing the impact of this peculiar and recent phenomenon in the region, caused by the arrival of the real estate-touristic capital. It is also intended to point out basic proposals to the forms of public intervention, in a speculative way, starting from a Metropolitan Planning project within a medium and long term

Evaluación de pronósticos para la tasa de cambio en Colombia.

Este documento analiza la capacidad de predicción dentro de la muestra (insample) de cuatro modelos de tasa de cambio nominal para Colombia durante el período 1984:I - 2004:I. Se emplean los enfoques monetarios de precios rígidos (Dornbusch (1976) -Frankel (1979)) y el de Balassa -Samuelson, que le da un papel central a los diferenciales de productividad.Adicionalmente se analiza la condición de la paridad del poder adquisitivo(PPP). La capacidad predictiva de dichos modelos es comparada con un camino aleatorio. Las medidas empleadas para evaluar los pronósticos son la raíz cuadrática del error de pronóstico (rms) y el coeficiente de desigualdad de Theil. Se observa que a pesar de tener una gran capacidad de predicción, ningún modelo supera al camino aleatorio. Dicha conclusión corrobora los resultados presentados en la literatura sobre los determinantes de la tasa de cambio nominal.