Simulation-based estimation

In this paper, I present a number of leading examples in the empirical literature that use simulation-based estimation methods. For each example, I describe the model, why simulation is needed, and how to simulate the relevant object. There is a section on simulation methods and another on simulations-based estimation methods. The paper concludes by considering the significance of each of the examples discussed a commenting on potential future areas of interest.

Supply, demand, and equilibrium in the market for CRNAs

This study determined the current trends in supply, demand, and equilibrium (ie, the level of employment where supply equals demand) in the market for Certified Registered Nurse Anesthetists (CRNAs). It also forecasts future needs for CRNAs given different possible scenarios. The impact of the current availability of CRNAs, projected retirements, and changes in the demand for surgeries are considered in relation to CRNAs needed for the future. The study used data from many sources to estimate models associated with the supply and demand for CRNAs and the relationship to relevant community and policy characteristics such as per capita income of the community and managed care. These models were used to forecast changes in surgeries and in the supply of CRNAs in the future. The supply of CRNAs has increased in recent years, stimulated by shortages of CRNAs and subsequent increases in the number of CRNAs trained. However, the increases have not offset the number of retiring CRNAs to maintain a constant age in the CRNA population. The average age will continue to increase for CRNAs in the near future despite increases in CRNAs trained. The supply of CRNAs in relation to surgeries will increase in the near future.

Idealised simulation of downburst winds

Convectively driven downburst winds pose a threat to structures and communities in many regions of Australia not subject to tropical cyclones. Extreme value analysis shows that for return periods of interest to engineering design these events produce higher gust wind speeds than synoptic scale windstorms. Despite this, comparatively little is known of the near ground wind structure of these potentially hazardous windstorms. With this in mind, a series of idealised three-dimensional numerical simulations were undertaken to investigate convective storm wind fields. A dry, non-hydrostatic, sub-cloud model with parameterisation of the microphysics was used. Simulations were run with a uniform 20 m horizontal grid resolution and a variable vertical resolution increasing from 1 m. A systematic grid resolution study showed further refinement did not alter the morphological structure of the outflow. Simulations were performed for stationary downbursts in a quiescent air field, stationary downbursts embedded within environmental boundary layer winds, and also translating downbursts embedded within environmental boundary layer winds.

CFD and experimental modelling of an impinging jet for thunderstorm downburst simulation

A thunderstorm downburst in its simplest form can be modelled as a steady flow impinging air jet. Although this simplification neglects some important atmospheric and physical parameters it has proven to be a useful tool for understanding the kinematics of these events. Assuming this simple impinging jet model also allows numerical models to be developed which can be directly compared with experimental results to validate the use of CFD. Confidence gained from these simulations will allow the use of more complex atmospheric impinging jet models that cannot be directly validated. Thunderstorm downbursts are important for wind engineers because in many parts of the world they produce the design wind speeds used in design standards, but are not structurally represented in these documents.

Simulation of carbon arc discharge for the synthesis of nanotubes

Arc discharge ablation with a catalyst-filled carbon anode in a helium background was used for the synthesis of graphene and carbon nanotubes. In this paper, we present the results of the numerical simulation of the distribution of various plasma parameters in discharge, as well as the distribution of carbon flux on the nanotube surface, for the typical discharge with an arc current of 60 A and a background gas pressure of 68 kPa.

Predicting stock market returns and volatility with investor sentiment : evidence from eight developed countries

We test the predictive ability of investor sentiment on the return and volatility at the aggregate market level in the U.S., four largest European countries and three Asia-Pacific countries. We find that in the U.S., France and Italy periods of high consumer confidence levels are followed by low market returns. In Japan both the level and the change in consumer confidence boost the market return in the next month. Further, shifts in sentiment significantly move conditional volatility in most of the countries, and in Italy such impacts lead to an increase in returns by 4.7% in the next month.

Simulation and visualization of self-assembled nanodevice networks synthesized via plasma–surface interaction

Using advanced visualization techniques, a comprehensive visualization of all the stages of the self-organized growth of internetworked nanostructures on plasma-exposed surface has been made. Atomistic kinetic Monte Carlo simulation for the initial stage of deposition, with 3-D visualization of the whole system and half-tone visualization of the density field of the adsorbed atoms, makes it possible to implement a multiscale predictive modeling of the development of the nanoscale system.

Diagnostics and two-dimensional simulation of low-frequency inductively coupled plasmas with neutral gas heating and electron heat fluxes

This article presents the results on the diagnostics and numerical modeling of low-frequency (∼460 KHz) inductively coupled plasmas generated in a cylindrical metal chamber by an external flat spiral coil. Experimental data on the electron number densities and temperatures, electron energy distribution functions, and optical emission intensities of the abundant plasma species in low/intermediate pressure argon discharges are included. The spatial profiles of the plasma density, electron temperature, and excited argon species are computed, for different rf powers and working gas pressures, using the two-dimensional fluid approach. The model allows one to achieve a reasonable agreement between the computed and experimental data. The effect of the neutral gas temperature on the plasma parameters is also investigated. It is shown that neutral gas heating (at rf powers≥0.55kW) is one of the key factors that control the electron number density and temperature. The dependence of the average rf power loss, per electron-ion pair created, on the working gas pressure shows that the electron heat flux to the walls appears to be a critical factor in the total power loss in the discharge.

Tailoring the composition of self-assembled Si1−xCx quantum dots : simulation of plasma/ion-related controls

Precise control of composition and internal structure is essential for a variety of novel technological applications which require highly tailored binary quantum dots (QDs) with predictable optoelectronic and mechanical properties. The delicate balancing act between incoming flux and substrate temperature required for the growth of compositionally graded (Si1-xC x; x varies throughout the internal structure), core-multishell (discrete shells of Si and C or combinations thereof) and selected composition (x set) QDs on low-temperature plasma/ion-flux-exposed Si(100) surfaces is investigated via a hybrid numerical simulation. Incident Si and C ions lead to localized substrate heating and a reduction in surface diffusion activation energy. It is shown that by incorporating ions in the influx, a steady-state composition is reached more quickly (for selected composition QDs) and the composition gradient of a Si1-xCx QD may be fine tuned; additionally (with other deposition conditions remaining the same), larger QDs are obtained on average. It is suggested that ionizing a portion of the influx is another way to control the average size of the QDs, and ultimately, their internal structure. Advantages that can be gained by utilizing plasma/ion-related controls to facilitate the growth of highly tailored, compositionally controlled quantum dots are discussed as well.

Nanosphere monolayer-templated, ion-assisted nanofeature etching in dielectric materials : a numerical simulation of nanoscale ion flux topography

The results of numerical simulations of nanometer precision distributions of microscopic ion fluxes in ion-assisted etching of nanoscale features on the surfaces of dielectric materials using a self-assembled monolayer of spherical nanoparticles as a mask are presented. It is shown that the ion fluxes to the substrate and nanosphere surfaces can be effectively controlled by the plasma parameters and the external bias applied to the substrate. By proper adjustment of these parameters, the ion flux can be focused onto the areas uncovered by the nanospheres. Under certain conditions, the ion flux distributions feature sophisticated hexagonal patterns, which may lead to very different nanofeature etching profiles. The results presented are generic and suggest viable ways to overcome some of the limitations of the existing plasma-assisted nanolithography.

Multi-scale hybrid numerical simulation of the growth of high-aspect-ratio nanostructures

Recently, a variety high-aspect-ratio nanostructures have been grown and profiled for various applications ranging from field emission transistors to gene/drug delivery devices. However, fabricating and processing arrays of these structures and determining how changing certain physical parameters affects the final outcome is quite challenging. We have developed several modules that can be used to simulate the processes of various physical vapour deposition systems from precursor interaction in the gas phase to gas-surface interactions and surface processes. In this paper, multi-scale hybrid numerical simulations are used to study how low-temperature non-equilibrium plasmas can be employed in the processing of high-aspect-ratio structures such that the resulting nanostructures have properties suitable for their eventual device application. We show that whilst using plasma techniques is beneficial in many nanofabrication processes, it is especially useful in making dense arrays of high-aspect-ratio nanostructures.

Simulation of gas-phase nanoparticle dynamics in the plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition of carbon nanostructures

The results of 1D simulation of nanoparticle dynamics in the areas adjacent to nanostructured carbon-based films exposed to chemically active complex plasma of CH4 + H2 + Ar gas mixtures are presented. The nanoparticle-loaded near-substrate (including sheath and presheath) areas of a low-frequency (0.5 MHz) inductively coupled plasma facility for the PECVD growth of the ordered carbon-based nanotip structures are considered. The conditions allowing one to predict the size of particles that can pass through the plasma sheath and softly land onto the surface are formulated. The possibility of soft nano-cluster deposition without any additional acceleration common for some existing nano-cluster deposition schemes is demonstrated. The effect of the substrate heating power and the average atomic mass of neutral species is studied numerically and verified experimentally.

Two-dimensional simulation of nanoassembly precursor species in Ar+H2+C2H2 reactive plasmas

The results of two-dimensional fluid simulation of number densities and fluxes of the main building blocks and surface preparation species involved in nanoassembly of carbon-based nanopatterns in Ar+H2+C2H2 reactive plasmas are reported. It is shown that the process parameters and non-uniformity of surface fluxes of each particular species may affect the targeted nanopattern quality. The results can be used to improve predictability of plasma-aided nanofabrication processes and optimize the parameters of plasma nanotools.KGaA, Weinheim.