Estimating the SCAN*PRO model of store sales: HB, FM or just OLS?

In this paper we investigate whether consideration of store-level heterogeneity in marketing mix effects improves the accuracy of the marketing mix elasticities, fit, and forecasting accuracy of the widely-applied SCAN*PRO model of store sales. Models with continuous and discrete representations of heterogeneity, estimated using hierarchical Bayes (HB) and finite mixture (FM) techniques, respectively, are empirically compared to the original model, which does not account for store-level heterogeneity in marketing mix effects, and is estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS). The empirical comparisons are conducted in two contexts: Dutch store-level scanner data for the shampoo product category, and an extensive simulation experiment. The simulation investigates how between- and within-segment variance in marketing mix effects, error variance, the number of weeks of data, and the number of stores impact the accuracy of marketing mix elasticities, model fit, and forecasting accuracy. Contrary to expectations, accommodating store-level heterogeneity does not improve the accuracy of marketing mix elasticities relative to the homogeneous SCAN*PRO model, suggesting that little may be lost by employing the original homogeneous SCAN*PRO model estimated using ordinary least squares. Improvements in fit and forecasting accuracy are also fairly modest. We pursue an explanation for this result since research in other contexts has shown clear advantages from assuming some type of heterogeneity in market response models. In an Afterthought section, we comment on the controversial nature of our result, distinguishing factors inherent to household-level data and associated models vs. general store-level data and associated models vs. the unique SCAN*PRO model specification.

Testing for financial crashes using the Log Periodic Power Law model

Many papers claim that a Log Periodic Power Law (LPPL) model fitted to financial market bubbles that precede large market falls or 'crashes', contains parameters that are confined within certain ranges. Further, it is claimed that the underlying model is based on influence percolation and a martingale condition. This paper examines these claims and their validity for capturing large price falls in the Hang Seng stock market index over the period 1970 to 2008. The fitted LPPLs have parameter values within the ranges specified post hoc by Johansen and Sornette (2001) for only seven of these 11 crashes. Interestingly, the LPPL fit could have predicted the substantial fall in the Hang Seng index during the recent global downturn. Overall, the mechanism posited as underlying the LPPL model does not do so, and the data used to support the fit of the LPPL model to bubbles does so only partially. © 2013.

Board composition, ownership structure and dividend policies in an emerging market: further evidence from CASE 50

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to examine dividend policies in an emerging capital market, in a country undergoing a transitional period. Design/methodology/approach – Using pooled cross-sectional observations from the top 50 listed Egyptian firms between 2003 and 2005, this study examines the effect of board of directors’ composition and ownership structure on dividend policies in Egypt. Findings – It is found that there is a significant positive association between institutional ownership and firm performance, and both dividend decision and payout ratio. The results confirm that firms with a higher return on equity and a higher institutional ownership distribute higher levels of dividend. No significant association was found between board composition and dividend decisions or ratios. Originality/value – This study provides additional evidence of the applicability of the signalling model in the emerging market of Egypt. It was found that despite the high institutional ownership and the closely held nature of the firms, which imply lower agency costs, the payment of higher dividend was considered necessary to attract capital during this transitional period.

Sticky credit spreads, macroeconomic activity and equity market volatility

We uncover high persistence in credit spread series that can obscure the relationship between the theoretical determinants of credit risk and observed credit spreads. We use a Markovswitching model, which also captures the stability (low frequency changes) of credit ratings, to show why credit spreads may continue to respond to past levels of credit risk, even though the state of the economy has changed. A bivariate model of credit spreads and either macroeconomic activity or equity market volatility detects large and significant correlations that are consistent with theory but have not been observed in previous studies. © 2010 Nova Science Publishers, Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact of high-performance work systems on individual- and branch-level performance:test of a multilevel model of intermediate linkages

We proposed and tested a multilevel model, underpinned by empowerment theory, that examines the processes linking high-performance work systems (HPWS) and performance outcomes at the individual and organizational levels of analyses. Data were obtained from 37 branches of 2 banking institutions in Ghana. Results of hierarchical regression analysis revealed that branch-level HPWS relates to empowerment climate. Additionally, results of hierarchical linear modeling that examined the hypothesized cross-level relationships revealed 3 salient findings. First, experienced HPWS and empowerment climate partially mediate the influence of branch-level HPWS on psychological empowerment. Second, psychological empowerment partially mediates the influence of empowerment climate and experienced HPWS on service performance. Third, service orientation moderates the psychological empowerment-service performance relationship such that the relationship is stronger for those high rather than low in service orientation. Last, ordinary least squares regression results revealed that branch-level HPWS influences branch-level market performance through cross-level and individual-level influences on service performance that emerges at the branch level as aggregated service performance. © 2011 American Psychological Association.

The effect of universal futures on opening and closing stock market price discovery

Purpose – On 29 January 2001, Euronext LIFFE introduced single security futures contracts on a range of global companies. The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact that the introduction of these futures contracts had on the behaviour of opening and closing UK equity returns. Design/methodology/approach – The paper models the price discovery process using the Amihud and Mendelson partial adjustment model which can be estimated using a Kalman filter. Findings – Empirical results show that during the pre-futures period both opening and closing returns under-react to new information. After the introduction of futures contracts opening returns over-react. A rise in the partial adjustment coefficient also takes place for closing returns but this is not large enough to cause over-reaction. Originality/value – This is the first study to examine the impact of a single security futures contract on the speed of spot market price discovery.

The effects of quantitative easing on the volatility of the gilt-edged market

We model the effects of quantitative easing on the volatility of returns to individual gilts, examining both the effects of QE overall and of the specific days of asset purchases. The action of QE successfully neutralized the six fold increase in volatility that had been experienced by gilts since the start of the financial crisis. The volatility of longer term bonds reduced more quickly than the volatility of short to medium term bonds. The reversion of the volatility of shorter term bonds to pre-crisis levels was found to be more sensitive to the specific operational actions of QE, particularly where they experienced relatively greater purchase activity.

Web-Based Information Systems in the Stock Market Financial Information Domain

The information domain is a recognised sphere for the influence, ownership, and control of information and it's specifications, format, exploitation and explanation (Thompson, 1967). The article presents a description of the financial information domain issues related to the organisation and operation of a stock market. We review the strategic, institutional and standards dimensions of the stock market information domain in relation to the current semantic web knowledge and how and whether this could be used in modern web based stock market information systems to provide the quality of information that their stakeholders want. The analysis is based on the FINE model (Blanas, 2003). The analysis leads to a number of research questions for future research.

An Information Model for Pension Fund Management

In this paper the issues of Ukrainian new three-level pension system are discussed. First, the paper presents the mathematical model that allows calculating the optimal size of contributions to the non-state pension fund. Next, the non-state pension fund chooses an Asset Management Company. To do so it is proposed to use an approach based on Kohonen networks to classify asset management companies that work in Ukrainian market. Further, when the asset management company is chosen, it receives the pension contributions of the participants of the non-pension fund. Asset Management Company has to invest these contributions profitably. This paper proposes an approach for choosing the most profitable investment project using decision trees. The new pension system has been lawfully ratified only four years ago and is still developing, that is why this paper is very important.

A Note on Bayesian Estimation for the Negative-Binomial Model

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62F15.

The influence of culture and market orientation on services brands:insights from Irish banking and retail firms

Purpose: This paper aims to examine the influence of the culture of the service firm on its interpretation of the role of the brand and on the development and implementation of its brand values. Design/methodology/approach: A grounded theory approach was used. Interviews were conducted with 20 managers within two leading banking firms in Ireland and two leading grocery retailers in Ireland. Findings: The development of the brand, and its role within the firm, is closely related to the firm's culture. The research shows obstacles and opportunities created by the cultural context of firms wishing to disseminate and embed a set of brand values. The paper presents an "involvement model" of brand values implementation and outlines changes required to implement brand values. Research limitations/implications: The study was bound by access to firms, and managers' availability. The authors sought an insight into the relationship between each firm's culture and its brands. They advocate quantitative research to further investigate the findings within these service sectors and to test proposed antecedents (transformational leadership, employee involvement) and outcomes (employee-based brand equity and consumer-based brand equity) of values adoption. Practical implications: The paper identifies aspects of retail and banking cultures which support or detract from brand development. In particular, it presents the learnings from successful brand values implementation in a clan culture, aspects of which are applicable across other cultures. Originality/value: The paper provides valuable insights into the role of the brand within the service firm and the positive and negative influence of context on brand values and their development and implementation. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Development of a technological innovation capability assessment model:a case study of manufacturing SMEs in Sialkot, Pakistan

Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) play an important part in the economy of any country. Initially, a flat management hierarchy, quick response to market changes and cost competitiveness were seen as the competitive characteristics of an SME. Recently, in developed economies, technological capabilities (TCs) management- managing existing and developing or assimilating new technological capabilities for continuous process and product innovations, has become important for both large organisations and SMEs to achieve sustained competitiveness. Therefore, various technological innovation capability (TIC) models have been developed at firm level to assess firms‘ innovation capability level. These models output help policy makers and firm managers to devise policies for deepening a firm‘s technical knowledge generation, acquisition and exploitation capabilities for sustained technological competitive edge. However, in developing countries TCs management is more of TCs upgrading: acquisitions of TCs from abroad, and then assimilating, innovating and exploiting them. Most of the TIC models for developing countries delineate the level of TIC required as firms move from the acquisition to innovative level. However, these models do not provide tools for assessing the existing level of TIC of a firm and various factors affecting TIC, to help practical interventions for TCs upgrading of firms for improved or new processes and products. Recently, the Government of Pakistan (GOP) has realised the importance of TCs upgrading in SMEs-especially export-oriented, for their sustained competitiveness. The GOP has launched various initiatives with local and foreign assistance to identify ways and means of upgrading local SMEs capabilities. This research targets this gap and developed a TICs assessment model for identifying the existing level of TIC of manufacturing SMEs existing in clusters in Sialkot, Pakistan. SME executives in three different export-oriented clusters at Sialkot were interviewed to analyse technological capabilities development initiatives (CDIs) taken by them to develop and upgrade their firms‘ TCs. Data analysed at CDI, firm, cluster and cross-cluster level first helped classify interviewed firms as leader, follower and reactor, with leader firms claiming to introduce mostly new CDIs to their cluster. Second, the data analysis displayed that mostly interviewed leader firms exhibited ‗learning by interacting‘ and ‗learning by training‘ capabilities for expertise acquisition from customers and international consultants. However, these leader firms did not show much evidence of learning by using, reverse engineering and R&D capabilities, which according to the extant literature are necessary for upgrading existing TIC level and thus TCs of firm for better value-added processes and products. The research results are supported by extant literature on Sialkot clusters. Thus, in sum, a TIC assessment model was developed in this research which qualitatively identified interviewed firms‘ TIC levels, the factors affecting them, and is validated by existing literature on interviewed Sialkot clusters. Further, the research gives policy level recommendations for TIC and thus TCs upgrading at firm and cluster level for targeting better value-added markets.

Polluting production – environmentally sound alternatives; A general model of production externalities

With the determination of principal parameters of producing and pollution abatement technologies, this paper quantifies abatement and external costs at the social optimum and analyses the dynamic relationship between technological development and the above-mentioned costs. With the partial analysis of parameters, the paper presents the impacts on the level of pollution and external costs of extensive and intensive environmental protection, market demand change and product fees, and not environmental protection oriented technological development. Parametrical cost calculation makes the drawing up of two useful rules of thumb possible in connection with the rate of government in-terventions. Also, the paradox of technological development aiming at intensive environmental protection will become apparent.

The Role of Price Floor in a Differentiated Product Retail Market

The ability of a manufacturer to enhance competition among its retailers by imposing a price floor was recently introduced in the literature. The purpose of this article is to revisit this anti-collusive explanation of the retail price maintenance in a more general model in which we introduce asymmetric retailers. We find that a manufacturer can amplify the retail market’s competition by imposing a price foor when retailers sell differentiated products. This result contradicts the prevailing concept of retail price maintenance.

"Minimálbér-paradoxon" versenyzői munkaerőpiacon? ("Minimum-wage paradox" in a competitive labour market? Lessons from an experimental line of thought)

A versenyzői munkaerőpiac hagyományos kereslet-kínálati modellje az egyensúlyi bérszintet meghaladó minimálbér következményeként az egyensúlyi bérszint mellettinél alacsonyabb foglalkoztatást jósol; minél magasabb a minimálbér, annál alacsonyabbat. Empirikus vizsgálatok szerint ugyanakkor a minimálbér-emelés nem feltétlenül csökkenti a foglalkoztatást - ezt nevezik minimálbér-paradoxonnak -, ami legkézenfekvőbben a munkáltatók munkaerő-piaci monopszonerejével látszik magyarázhatónak. Ezzel szemben az a gondolatkísérlet, amelyről ez a cikk beszámol, általánosabb érvényű, versenyzői munkaerőpiacot feltételező magyarázat kidolgozására irányul. / === / In the conventional textbook demand/supply model of competitive labour markets, the introduction of a minimum wage above market-clearing level must reduce employment. Empirical findings suggest, however, that this may not always be the case, a finding most readily explained by monopsonistic competition in the labour market. The experimental line of thought reported here explores an alternative root, interpreting the "minimum-wage paradox" as the outcome of a competitive labour market that displays friction.