923 resultados para Local area networks (Computer networks)


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ROTEM(®) is considered a helpful point-of-care device to monitor blood coagulation. Centrally performed analysis is desirable but rapid transport of blood samples and real-time transmission of graphic results are an important prerequisite. The effect of sample transport through a pneumatic tube system on ROTEM(®) results is unknown. The aims of the present work were (i) to determine the influence of blood sample transport through a pneumatic tube system on ROTEM(®) parameters compared to manual transportation, and (ii) to verify whether graphic results can be transmitted on line via virtual network computing using local area network to the physician in charge of the patient.

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The hydraulic fracturing of the Marcellus Formation creates a byproduct known as frac water. Five frac water samples were collected in Bradford County, PA. Inorganic chemical analysis, field parameters analysis, alkalinity titrations, total dissolved solids(TDS), total suspended solids (TSS), biological oxygen demand (BOD), and chemical oxygen demand (COD) were conducted on each sample to characterize frac water. A database of frac water chemistry results from across the state of Pennsylvania from multiple sources was compiled in order to provide the public and research communitywith an accurate characterization of frac water. Four geochemical models were created to model the reactions between frac water and the Marcellus Formation, Purcell Limestone, and the oil field brines presumed present in the formations. The average concentrations of chloride and TDS in the five frac water samples were 1.1 �± 0.5 x 105 mg/L (5.5X average seawater) and 140,000 mg/L (4X average seawater). BOD values for frac water immediately upon flow back were over 10X greater than the BOD of typical wastewater, but decreased into the range of typical wastewater after a short period of time. The COD of frac water decreases dramatically with an increase in elapsed time from flow back, but remain considerably higher than typicalwastewater. Different alkalinity calculation methods produced a range of alkalinity values for frac water: this result is most likely due to high concentrations of aliphatic acid anions present in the samples. Laboratory analyses indicate that the frac watercomposition is quite variable depending on the companies from which the water was collected, the geology of the local area, and number of fracturing jobs in which the frac water was used, but will require more treatment than typical wastewater regardless of theprecise composition of each sample. The geochemical models created suggest that the presence of organic complexes in an oil field brine and Marcellus Formation aid in the dissolution of ions such as bariumand strontium into the solution. Although equilibration reactions between the Marcellus Formation and the slickwater account for some of the final frac water composition, the predominant control of frac water composition appears to be the ratio of the mixture between the oil field brine and slickwater. The high concentration of barium in the frac water is likely due to the abundance of barite nodules in the Purcell Limestone, and the lack of sulfate in the frac water samples is due to the reducing, anoxic conditions in the earth's subsurface that allow for the degassing of H2S(g).

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Through studying German, Polish and Czech publications on Silesia, Mr. Kamusella found that most of them, instead of trying to objectively analyse the past, are devoted to proving some essential "Germanness", "Polishness" or "Czechness" of this region. He believes that the terminology and thought-patterns of nationalist ideology are so deeply entrenched in the minds of researchers that they do not consider themselves nationalist. However, he notes that, due to the spread of the results of the latest studies on ethnicity/nationalism (by Gellner, Hobsbawm, Smith, Erikson Buillig, amongst others), German publications on Silesia have become quite objective since the 1980s, and the same process (impeded by under funding) has been taking place in Poland and the Czech Republic since 1989. His own research totals some 500 pages, in English, presented on disc. So what are the traps into which historians have been inclined to fall? There is a tendency for them to treat Silesia as an entity which has existed forever, though Mr. Kamusella points out that it emerged as a region only at the beginning of the 11th century. These same historians speak of Poles, Czechs and Germans in Silesia, though Mr. Kamusella found that before the mid-19th century, identification was with an inhabitant's local area, religion or dynasty. In fact, a German national identity started to be forged in Prussian Silesia only during the Liberation War against Napoleon (1813-1815). It was concretised in 1861 in the form of the first Prussian census, when the language a citizen spoke was equated with his/her nationality. A similar census was carried out in Austrian Silesia only in 1881. The censuses forced the Silesians to choose their nationality despite their multiethnic multicultural identities. It was the active promotion of a German identity in Prussian Silesia, and Vienna's uneasy acceptance of the national identities in Austrian Silesia which stimulated the development of Polish national, Moravian ethnic and Upper Silesian ethnic regional identities in Upper Silesia, and Polish national, Czech national, Moravian ethnic and Silesian ethnic identities in Austrian Silesia. While traditional historians speak of the "nationalist struggle" as though it were a permanent characteristic of Silesia, Mr. Kamusella points out that such a struggle only developed in earnest after 1918. What is more, he shows how it has been conveniently forgotten that, besides the national players, there were also significant ethnic movements of Moravians, Upper Silesians, Silesians and the tutejsi (i.e. those who still chose to identify with their locality). At this point Mr. Kamusella moves into the area of linguistics. While traditionally historians have spoken of the conflicts between the three national languages (German, Polish and Czech), Mr Kamusella reminds us that the standardised forms of these languages, which we choose to dub "national", were developed only in the mid-18th century, after 1869 (when Polish became the official language in Galicia), and after the 1870s (when Czech became the official language in Bohemia). As for standard German, it was only widely promoted in Silesia from the mid 19th century onwards. In fact, the majority of the population of Prussian Upper Silesia and Austrian Silesia were bi- or even multilingual. What is more, the "Polish" and "Czech" Silesians spoke were not the standard languages we know today, but a continuum of West-Slavic dialects in the countryside and a continuum of West-Slavic/German creoles in the urbanised areas. Such was the linguistic confusion that, from time to time, some ethnic/regional and Church activists strove to create a distinctive Upper Silesian/Silesian language on the basis of these dialects/creoles, but their efforts were thwarted by the staunch promotion of standard German, and after 1918, of standard Polish and Czech. Still on the subject of language, Mr. Kamusella draws attention to a problem around the issue of place names and personal names. Polish historians use current Polish versions of the Silesian place names, Czechs use current Polish/Czech versions of the place names, and Germans use the German versions which were in use in Silesia up to 1945. Mr. Kamusella attempted to avoid this, as he sees it, nationalist tendency, by using an appropriate version of a place name for a given period and providing its modern counterpart in parentheses. In the case of modern place names he gives the German version in parentheses. As for the name of historical figures, he strove to use the name entered on the birth certificate of the person involved, and by doing so avoid such confusion as, for instance, surrounds the Austrian Silesian pastor L.J. Sherschnik, who in German became Scherschnick, in Polish, Szersznik, and in Czech, Sersnik. Indeed, the prospective Silesian scholar should, Mr. Kamusella suggests, as well as the three languages directly involved in the area itself, know English and French, since many documents and books on the subject have been published in these languages, and even Latin, when dealing in depth with the period before the mid-19th century. Mr. Kamusella divides the policies of ethnic cleansing into two categories. The first he classifies as soft, meaning that policy is confined to the educational system, army, civil service and the church, and the aim is that everyone learn the language of the dominant group. The second is the group of hard policies, which amount to what is popularly labelled as ethnic cleansing. This category of policy aims at the total assimilation and/or physical liquidation of the non-dominant groups non-congruent with the ideal of homogeneity of a given nation-state. Mr. Kamusella found that soft policies were consciously and systematically employed by Prussia/Germany in Prussian Silesia from the 1860s to 1918, whereas in Austrian Silesia, Vienna quite inconsistently dabbled in them from the 1880s to 1917. In the inter-war period, the emergence of the nation-states of Poland and Czechoslovakia led to full employment of the soft policies and partial employment of the hard ones (curbed by the League of Nations minorities protection system) in Czechoslovakian Silesia, German Upper Silesia and the Polish parts of Upper and Austrian Silesia. In 1939-1945, Berlin started consistently using all the "hard" methods to homogenise Polish and Czechoslovakian Silesia which fell, in their entirety, within the Reich's borders. After World War II Czechoslovakia regained its prewar part of Silesia while Poland was given its prewar section plus almost the whole of the prewar German province. Subsequently, with the active involvement and support of the Soviet Union, Warsaw and Prague expelled the majority of Germans from Silesia in 1945-1948 (there were also instances of the Poles expelling Upper Silesian Czechs/Moravians, and of the Czechs expelling Czech Silesian Poles/pro-Polish Silesians). During the period of communist rule, the same two countries carried out a thorough Polonisation and Czechisation of Silesia, submerging this region into a new, non-historically based administrative division. Democratisation in the wake of the fall of communism, and a gradual retreat from the nationalist ideal of the homogeneous nation-state with a view to possible membership of the European Union, caused the abolition of the "hard" policies and phasing out of the "soft" ones. Consequently, limited revivals of various ethnic/national minorities have been observed in Czech and Polish Silesia, whereas Silesian regionalism has become popular in the westernmost part of Silesia which remained part of Germany. Mr. Kamusella believes it is possible that, with the overcoming of the nation-state discourse in European politics, when the expression of multiethnicity and multilingualism has become the cause of the day in Silesia, regionalism will hold sway in this region, uniting its ethnically/nationally variegated population in accordance with the principle of subsidiarity championed by the European Union.

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Roads and highways present a unique challenge to wildlife as they exhibit substantial impacts on the surrounding ecosystem through the interruption of a number of ecological processes. With new roads added to the national highway system every year, an understanding of these impacts is required for effective mitigation of potential environmental impacts. A major contributor to these negative effects is the deposition of chemicals used in winter deicing activities to nearby surface waters. These chemicals often vary in composition and may affect freshwater species differently. The negative impacts of widespread deposition of sodium chloride (NaCl) have prompted a search for an `environmentally friendly' alternative. However, little research has investigated the potential environmental effects of widespread use of these alternatives. Herein, I detail the results of laboratory tests and field surveys designed to determine the impacts of road salt (NaCl) and other chemical deicers on amphibian communities in Michigan's Upper Peninsula. Using larval amphibians I demonstrate the lethal impacts of a suite of chemical deicers on this sensitive, freshwater species. Larval wood frogs (Lithobates sylvatica) were tolerant of short-term (96 hours) exposure to urea (CH4N2O), sodium chloride (NaCl), and magnesium chloride (MgCl2). However, these larvae were very sensitive to acetate products (C8H12CaMgO8, CH3COOK) and calcium chloride (CaCl2). These differences in tolerance suggest that certain deicers may be more harmful to amphibians than others. Secondly, I expanded this analysis to include an experiment designed to determine the sublethal effects of chronic exposure to environmentally realistic concentrations of NaCl on two unique amphibian species, L. sylvatica and green frogs (L. clamitans). L. sylvatica tend to breed in small, ephemeral wetlands and metamorphose within a single season. However, L. clamitans breed primarily in more permanent wetlands and often remain as tadpoles for one year or more. These species employ different life history strategies in this region which may influence their response to chronic NaCl exposure. Both species demonstrated potentially harmful effects on individual fitness. L. sylvatica larvae had a high incidence of edema suggesting the NaCl exposure was a significant physiologic stressor to these larvae. L. clamitans larvae reduced tail length during their exposure which may affect adult fitness of these individuals. In order to determine the risk local amphibians face when using these roadside pools, I conducted a survey of the spatial distribution of chloride in the three northernmost counties of Michigan. This area receives a relatively low amount of NaCl which is confined to state and federal highways. The chloride concentrations in this region were much lower than those in urban systems; however, amphibians breeding in the local area may encounter harmful chloride levels arising from temporal variations in hydroperiods. Spatial variation of chloride levels suggests the road-effect zone for amphibians may be as large as 1000 m from a salt-treated highway. Lastly, I performed an analysis of the use of specific conductance to predict chloride concentrations in natural surface water bodies. A number of studies have used this regression to predict chloride concentrations from measurements of specific conductance. This method is often chosen in the place of ion chromatography due to budget and time constraints. However, using a regression method to characterize this relationship does not result in accurate chloride ion concentration estimates.

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Classical swine fever (CSF) outbreaks can cause enormous losses in naïve pig populations. How to best minimize the economic damage and number of culled animals caused by CSF is therefore an important research area. The baseline CSF control strategy in the European Union and Switzerland consists of culling all animals in infected herds, movement restrictions for animals, material and people within a given distance to the infected herd and epidemiological tracing of transmission contacts. Additional disease control measures such as pre-emptive culling or vaccination have been recommended based on the results from several simulation models; however, these models were parameterized for areas with high animal densities. The objective of this study was to explore whether pre-emptive culling and emergency vaccination should also be recommended in low- to moderate-density areas such as Switzerland. Additionally, we studied the influence of initial outbreak conditions on outbreak severity to improve the efficiency of disease prevention and surveillance. A spatial, stochastic, individual-animal-based simulation model using all registered Swiss pig premises in 2009 (n=9770) was implemented to quantify these relationships. The model simulates within-herd and between-herd transmission (direct and indirect contacts and local area spread). By varying the four parameters (a) control measures, (b) index herd type (breeding, fattening, weaning or mixed herd), (c) detection delay for secondary cases during an outbreak and (d) contact tracing probability, 112 distinct scenarios were simulated. To assess the impact of scenarios on outbreak severity, daily transmission rates were compared between scenarios. Compared with the baseline strategy (stamping out and movement restrictions) vaccination and pre-emptive culling neither reduced outbreak size nor duration. Outbreaks starting in a herd with weaning piglets or fattening pigs caused higher losses regarding to the number of culled premises and were longer lasting than those starting in the two other index herd types. Similarly, larger transmission rates were estimated for these index herd type outbreaks. A longer detection delay resulted in more culled premises and longer duration and better transmission tracing increased the number of short outbreaks. Based on the simulation results, baseline control strategies seem sufficient to control CSF in low-medium animal-dense areas. Early detection of outbreaks is crucial and risk-based surveillance should be focused on weaning piglet and fattening pig premises.

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This study investigates the prevalence of burnout among a sample of Texas psychologists and psychological associates as well as differences between the three categories of practitioners within that group (Licensed Psychology Health Care Providers (LPHCP), Licensed Psychologists - Certified Psychologists (LP-CP), Psychological Associates (PA)).^ The Maslach Burnout Inventory and a questionnaire seeking demographic information was used in this cross-sectional survey. Sample size was 654. A stratified proportionate random sample of Texas Psychologists was drawn. The response rate based on usable returns was 55% (n = 359). General demographic characteristics were determined mainly by frequency distributions. For comparing means of samples, t and multiple range tests were used. A series of one-way and two-way analysis of variance procedures were used to compare subgroup differences in burnout.^ The universe was representative for the sample and for the three categories of psychologists. Urban subjects were more likely to respond, as were male PAs. Practitioners were as likely male as female, working in an urban area, in their present job eight years, and in the occupation for fifteen. The LPHCP group were older, had been in psychology and at their present job longer, and were more likely to belong to both state and local professional organizations than the other two groups. Males outnumbered females in this group and in LP-CPs. This gender trend was reversed for PAs. Of the total sample, 76% reported high job satisfaction and 77% had high levels of perceived job autonomy. There was no significant difference between the study sample and the mental health norms in emotional exhaustion (EE). Our sample had significantly less feelings of depersonalization (DP) and higher feelings of personal accomplishment (PA). Psychological Associates felt significantly less personal accomplishment than the other groups. Predictors for the total sample indicated younger practitioners and those with low job satisfaction had significantly higher burnout, as did males when compared to their female cohorts. Some types of jobs were more likely to contribute to burnout than others. Membership in their local area professional organization lessened the chances for burnout significantly. Predictors for categories of psychologists indicated that males in the LPHCP and LP-CP groups were at higher risk than females. Further, for LP-CPs low job satisfaction and job autonomy, as well as job sites, were significant. Those in this group who worked as school psychologists were at the highest risk for burnout. Job dissatisfaction was the major predictor of burnout for psychological associates. Practitioners working in state or government agencies, school systems and administrative jobs generally had higher burnout than those on a university faculty or in private practice. (Abstract shortened by UMI.) ^

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En los últimos años se han producido importantes transformaciones en la activiad agrícola argentina. Una de ellas es la aparición de nuevos formas de organización de la agricultura que se denominan genéricamente 'pools de siembra', los cuales impactan en los territorios locales modificando tanto los roles y las funciones de los actores agrarios tradicionales como las relaciones que mantienen entre ellos. Bajo la hipótesis de que estas nuevas formas de organización de la agricultura, llevadas a cabo por actores de tipo más financiero que socioproductivo, aceleran los procesos de concentración y desterritorialización de la riqueza, se avanza en este trabajo sobre cuatro aspectos. En primer lugar, se caracteriza a los actores actuales vinculados a la producción primaria, considerando su trayectoria y su relación con la actividad agrícola y con el espacio local. En segundo lugar, nos concentramos en esas nuevas formas de organización de la agricultura, tratando de mostrar que detrás de la denominación de 'pools de siembra' se esconde una diversidad de actores; para ello, el presente estudio articula tres variables principales: la duración del emprendimiento agrícola, la forma jurídica adoptada y el actor responsable de la gestión. En tercer lugar, se profundiza en las lógicas decisorias de los propietarios rentistas, actores clave junto con los contratistas en el avance de los pools de siembra. Por último, se describe algunos de los impactos actualmente perceptibles de estas nuevas formas de organización en los espacios centrales santafesinos

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En los últimos años se han producido importantes transformaciones en la activiad agrícola argentina. Una de ellas es la aparición de nuevos formas de organización de la agricultura que se denominan genéricamente 'pools de siembra', los cuales impactan en los territorios locales modificando tanto los roles y las funciones de los actores agrarios tradicionales como las relaciones que mantienen entre ellos. Bajo la hipótesis de que estas nuevas formas de organización de la agricultura, llevadas a cabo por actores de tipo más financiero que socioproductivo, aceleran los procesos de concentración y desterritorialización de la riqueza, se avanza en este trabajo sobre cuatro aspectos. En primer lugar, se caracteriza a los actores actuales vinculados a la producción primaria, considerando su trayectoria y su relación con la actividad agrícola y con el espacio local. En segundo lugar, nos concentramos en esas nuevas formas de organización de la agricultura, tratando de mostrar que detrás de la denominación de 'pools de siembra' se esconde una diversidad de actores; para ello, el presente estudio articula tres variables principales: la duración del emprendimiento agrícola, la forma jurídica adoptada y el actor responsable de la gestión. En tercer lugar, se profundiza en las lógicas decisorias de los propietarios rentistas, actores clave junto con los contratistas en el avance de los pools de siembra. Por último, se describe algunos de los impactos actualmente perceptibles de estas nuevas formas de organización en los espacios centrales santafesinos

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En los últimos años se han producido importantes transformaciones en la activiad agrícola argentina. Una de ellas es la aparición de nuevos formas de organización de la agricultura que se denominan genéricamente 'pools de siembra', los cuales impactan en los territorios locales modificando tanto los roles y las funciones de los actores agrarios tradicionales como las relaciones que mantienen entre ellos. Bajo la hipótesis de que estas nuevas formas de organización de la agricultura, llevadas a cabo por actores de tipo más financiero que socioproductivo, aceleran los procesos de concentración y desterritorialización de la riqueza, se avanza en este trabajo sobre cuatro aspectos. En primer lugar, se caracteriza a los actores actuales vinculados a la producción primaria, considerando su trayectoria y su relación con la actividad agrícola y con el espacio local. En segundo lugar, nos concentramos en esas nuevas formas de organización de la agricultura, tratando de mostrar que detrás de la denominación de 'pools de siembra' se esconde una diversidad de actores; para ello, el presente estudio articula tres variables principales: la duración del emprendimiento agrícola, la forma jurídica adoptada y el actor responsable de la gestión. En tercer lugar, se profundiza en las lógicas decisorias de los propietarios rentistas, actores clave junto con los contratistas en el avance de los pools de siembra. Por último, se describe algunos de los impactos actualmente perceptibles de estas nuevas formas de organización en los espacios centrales santafesinos

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Los objetivos de este proyecto son dobles. El primero a conseguir es el acondicionamiento acústico de un centro educativo para alcanzar un mayor rendimiento docente; lo que se pretende lograr mejorando la inteligibilidad de la palabra y reduciendo el ruido en los diferentes recintos. El segundo objetivo, es la reducción de los costos económicos y medioambientales del proyecto empleando en el acondicionamiento acústico materiales procedentes del reciclado o existentes en el entorno local, reduciendo lo mayor posible la importación de estos materiales. Desde la investigación de las exigencias acústicas de un centro educativo, se determinarán los parámetros adecuados para su diseño óptimo. En general los mayores problemas acústicos existentes en estos establecimientos, son debidos a la transferencia de ruido entre los diferentes recintos y su excesiva reverberación, lo que provoca dificultades en la transmisión de la palabra y por ende también en las actividades docentes y los objetivos educativos. Asimismo, los parámetros y exigencias acústicas planteadas y desarrolladas, serán estudiados a partir de un contexto real y específico. El lugar elegido para el caso de estudio, será la ciudad de Santiago de Chile. Es importante, aclarar que en este país no existe una normativa aplicable a este tipo de establecimientos, por tanto se planteará el aislamiento acústico y posterior acondicionamiento a partir de normas y requisitos internacionales. Además, las soluciones acústicas planteadas serán de materiales reciclados existentes en el mercado nacional. Esta decisión tiene como finalidad reducir la afección al medio ambiente fomentando el desarrollo ecológico y sostenible como respuesta al crecimiento económico y la conservación de recursos en un país que se encuentra en vías de desarrollo. Por último, se plantea el acondicionamiento acústico de los diferentes recintos del colegio en proyecto, mediante simulación acústica en el programa EASE (Enhanced Acoustic Simulator for Engineers), lo que nos permite conocer el comportamiento de los recintos antes y después del acondicionamiento acústico. SUMMARY The objective of this Project is twofold. On the one hand, the acoustic conditioning of a school is developed in order to achieve a better teaching performance. For this purpose, the speech intelligibility is enhanced and the noise in the different rooms is reduced. On the other hand, the economic costs and environmental impact are reduced by using recycled materials or materials found in the local area, reducing as much as possible the use of imported materials. The appropriate acoustic parameters will be determined from the evaluation of the acoustic demands of the school. The main problems in these environments are the noise transmission between rooms as well as a high reverberation time. These will cause problems with the speech transmission, which is of great importance for educational purposes. Furthermore, the acoustic parameters and requirements are taken from a real and specific context. The place chosen for the research is Santiago, Chile. It is remarkable that in this country there is no national legislation that can be applied to such places, therefore International Standards are considered to evaluate the acoustic insulation and conditioning. The acoustic solutions considered in this project come from recycled materials existing on the domestic market. The decision aims to reduce the environmental impact, promoting environmentally sustainable development as a response to the economic growth and the maintenance of resources in a developing country. Finally, a simulation at some different areas of the school is carried out, comparing the behaviour before and after the proposed acoustic solutions. The software used for the simulations is EASE (Enhanced Acoustic Simulator for Engineers).

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Mammalian hearing depends on the enhanced mechanical properties of the basilar membrane within the cochlear duct. The enhancement arises through the action of outer hair cells that act like force generators within the organ of Corti. Simple considerations show that underlying mechanism of somatic motility depends on local area changes within the lateral membrane of the cell. The molecular basis for this phenomenon is a dense array of particles that are inserted into the basolateral membrane and that are capable of sensing membrane potential field. We show here that outer hair cells selectively take up fructose, at rates high enough to suggest that a sugar transporter may be part of the motor complex. The relation of these findings to a recent candidate for the molecular motor is also discussed.

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El diseño de los recursos educativos permite a los estudiantes modificar su proceso de aprendizaje. En particular, los recursos educativos on-line descargables han sido utilizados con éxito en la educación en ingeniería en los últimos años. Por lo general, estos recursos son gratuitos y accesibles desde la web. Además, son diseñados y desarrollados por profesores y usados por sus estudiantes. Pero, rara vez se desarrollan por los estudiantes con el fin de ser utilizados por otros estudiantes. En este artículo, profesores y estudiantes trabajan juntos para implementar recursos educativos de libre distribución, que puedan ser utilizados por los estudiantes para mejorar el proceso de aprendizaje de redes de computadores en los estudios de ingeniería. En particular, se virtualizan topologías de red para modelar redes LAN (Local Area Network) y MAN (Metropolitan Area Network) con el fin de simular el comportamiento de los enlaces y nodos cuando están interconectados con diferente diseño físico y lógico. Para ello, usando el software de libre distribución GNS3, y teniendo como base la configuración de la red del laboratorio L24 de la EPS, se construye un entorno virtual que simula las posibilidades reales de este laboratorio.

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Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

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The design of dual-band 2.45/5.2 GHz antenna for an acces point of a Wireless Local Area Network (LAN) is presented. The proposed antenna is formed by a Radial Line Slot Array (RLSA) operating at 2.4 GHz and a Microstrip patch working at 5.2 GHz, both featuring circular polarization. The design of this antenna system is accomplished using commercially available Finite Element software. High Frequency Structure Simulator (HFSS) of Ansoft and an in-house developed iteration procedure. The performance of the designed antenna is assessed in terms of return loss (RL), radiation pattern and polarization purity in the two frequency bands.

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Sorghum is the main dryland summer crop in NE Australia and a number of agricultural businesses would benefit from an ability to forecast production likelihood at regional scale. In this study we sought to develop a simple agro-climatic modelling approach for predicting shire (statistical local area) sorghum yield. Actual shire yield data, available for the period 1983-1997 from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, were used to train the model. Shire yield was related to a water stress index (SI) that was derived from the agro-climatic model. The model involved a simple fallow and crop water balance that was driven by climate data available at recording stations within each shire. Parameters defining the soil water holding capacity, maximum number of sowings (MXNS) in any year, planting rainfall requirement, and critical period for stress during the crop cycle were optimised as part of the model fitting procedure. Cross-validated correlations (CVR) ranged from 0.5 to 0.9 at shire scale. When aggregated to regional and national scales, 78-84% of the annual variation in sorghum yield was explained. The model was used to examine trends in sorghum productivity and the approach to using it in an operational forecasting system was outlined. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.