Data to Decision in a Dynamic Ocean: Robust Species Distribution Models and Spatial Decision Frameworks

Human use of the oceans is increasingly in conflict with conservation of endangered species. Methods for managing the spatial and temporal placement of industries such as military, fishing, transportation and offshore energy, have historically been post hoc; i.e. the time and place of human activity is often already determined before assessment of environmental impacts. In this dissertation, I build robust species distribution models in two case study areas, US Atlantic (Best et al. 2012) and British Columbia (Best et al. 2015), predicting presence and abundance respectively, from scientific surveys. These models are then applied to novel decision frameworks for preemptively suggesting optimal placement of human activities in space and time to minimize ecological impacts: siting for offshore wind energy development, and routing ships to minimize risk of striking whales. Both decision frameworks relate the tradeoff between conservation risk and industry profit with synchronized variable and map views as online spatial decision support systems.

For siting offshore wind energy development (OWED) in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 4), bird density maps are combined across species with weights of OWED sensitivity to collision and displacement and 10 km2 sites are compared against OWED profitability based on average annual wind speed at 90m hub heights and distance to transmission grid. A spatial decision support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot views by site. A selected site can be inspected for sensitivity to a cetaceans throughout the year, so as to capture months of the year which minimize episodic impacts of pre-operational activities such as seismic airgun surveying and pile driving.

Routing ships to avoid whale strikes (chapter 5) can be similarly viewed as a tradeoff, but is a different problem spatially. A cumulative cost surface is generated from density surface maps and conservation status of cetaceans, before applying as a resistance surface to calculate least-cost routes between start and end locations, i.e. ports and entrance locations to study areas. Varying a multiplier to the cost surface enables calculation of multiple routes with different costs to conservation of cetaceans versus cost to transportation industry, measured as distance. Similar to the siting chapter, a spatial decisions support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot view of proposed routes. The user can also input arbitrary start and end locations to calculate the tradeoff on the fly.

Essential to the input of these decision frameworks are distributions of the species. The two preceding chapters comprise species distribution models from two case study areas, U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2) and British Columbia (chapter 3), predicting presence and density, respectively. Although density is preferred to estimate potential biological removal, per Marine Mammal Protection Act requirements in the U.S., all the necessary parameters, especially distance and angle of observation, are less readily available across publicly mined datasets.

In the case of predicting cetacean presence in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2), I extracted datasets from the online OBIS-SEAMAP geo-database, and integrated scientific surveys conducted by ship (n=36) and aircraft (n=16), weighting a Generalized Additive Model by minutes surveyed within space-time grid cells to harmonize effort between the two survey platforms. For each of 16 cetacean species guilds, I predicted the probability of occurrence from static environmental variables (water depth, distance to shore, distance to continental shelf break) and time-varying conditions (monthly sea-surface temperature). To generate maps of presence vs. absence, Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to define the optimal threshold that minimizes false positive and false negative error rates. I integrated model outputs, including tables (species in guilds, input surveys) and plots (fit of environmental variables, ROC curve), into an online spatial decision support system, allowing for easy navigation of models by taxon, region, season, and data provider.

For predicting cetacean density within the inner waters of British Columbia (chapter 3), I calculated density from systematic, line-transect marine mammal surveys over multiple years and seasons (summer 2004, 2005, 2008, and spring/autumn 2007) conducted by Raincoast Conservation Foundation. Abundance estimates were calculated using two different methods: Conventional Distance Sampling (CDS) and Density Surface Modelling (DSM). CDS generates a single density estimate for each stratum, whereas DSM explicitly models spatial variation and offers potential for greater precision by incorporating environmental predictors. Although DSM yields a more relevant product for the purposes of marine spatial planning, CDS has proven to be useful in cases where there are fewer observations available for seasonal and inter-annual comparison, particularly for the scarcely observed elephant seal. Abundance estimates are provided on a stratum-specific basis. Steller sea lions and harbour seals are further differentiated by ‘hauled out’ and ‘in water’. This analysis updates previous estimates (Williams & Thomas 2007) by including additional years of effort, providing greater spatial precision with the DSM method over CDS, novel reporting for spring and autumn seasons (rather than summer alone), and providing new abundance estimates for Steller sea lion and northern elephant seal. In addition to providing a baseline of marine mammal abundance and distribution, against which future changes can be compared, this information offers the opportunity to assess the risks posed to marine mammals by existing and emerging threats, such as fisheries bycatch, ship strikes, and increased oil spill and ocean noise issues associated with increases of container ship and oil tanker traffic in British Columbia’s continental shelf waters.

Starting with marine animal observations at specific coordinates and times, I combine these data with environmental data, often satellite derived, to produce seascape predictions generalizable in space and time. These habitat-based models enable prediction of encounter rates and, in the case of density surface models, abundance that can then be applied to management scenarios. Specific human activities, OWED and shipping, are then compared within a tradeoff decision support framework, enabling interchangeable map and tradeoff plot views. These products make complex processes transparent for gaming conservation, industry and stakeholders towards optimal marine spatial management, fundamental to the tenets of marine spatial planning, ecosystem-based management and dynamic ocean management.

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Mg/Ca record for the surface-dwelling planktonic foraminifera Globigerina bulloides

We generated a high-resolution SSTMg/Ca record for the surface-dwelling planktonic foraminifera Globigerina bulloides from the core MD99-2346 collected in the Gulf of Lion, and compared it to that obtained using modern analogue techniques applied to fossil foraminiferal assemblages (SSTMAT). The two temperature records display similar patterns during the last 28,000 years but the SSTMg/Ca estimates are several degrees warmer (~+4 °C) than SSTMAT. The temperature shift between SSTMg/Ca and SSTMAT remained relatively constant over time. This seems to exclude a bias on the Mg/Ca record associated with salinity or secondary Mg-rich calcite encrustation on the foraminiferal tests during early diagenesis. Therefore, anomalously high Mg/Ca suggests either: (1) the empirical equation for G. bulloides of Elderfield and Ganssen (2000) is incorrect; or (2) there is a specific Mediterranean genotypes of G. bulloides for which a specific Mg/Ca-temperature calibration is needed.

Predators on private land: broad-scale socioeconomic interactions influence large predator management

The proliferation of private land conservation areas (PLCAs) is placing increasing pressure on conservation authorities to effectively regulate their ecological management. Many PLCAs depend on tourism for income, and charismatic large mammal species are considered important for attracting international visitors. Broad-scale socioeconomic factors therefore have the potential to drive fine-scale ecological management, creating a systemic scale mismatch that can reduce long-term sustainability in cases where economic and conservation objectives are not perfectly aligned. We assessed the socioeconomic drivers and outcomes of large predator management on 71 PLCAs in South Africa. Owners of PLCAs that are stocking free-roaming large predators identified revenue generation as influencing most or all of their management decisions, and rated profit generation as a more important objective than did the owners of PLCAs that did not stock large predators. Ecotourism revenue increased with increasing lion (Panthera leo) density, which created a potential economic incentive for stocking lion at high densities. Despite this potential mismatch between economic and ecological objectives, lion densities were sustainable relative to available prey. Regional-scale policy guidelines for free-roaming lion management were ecologically sound. By contrast, policy guidelines underestimated the area required to sustain cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus), which occurred at unsustainable densities relative to available prey. Evidence of predator overstocking included predator diet supplementation and frequent reintroduction of game. We conclude that effective facilitation of conservation on private land requires consideration of the strong and not necessarily beneficial multiscale socioeconomic factors that influence private land management.

The Genesis Of The Mycenaean Citadel: A Philosophical Quest For The Origins Of The Architectural Forms

This thesis deals with the origins of the architectural forms as expressed in the Homeric Mycenaean citadel. The Genesis of the Mycenaean Citadel is a philosophical quest which reveals the poetic dimension of the Mycenaean architecture. The Introduction deals with general theories on the subject of space, which converge into one, forming the spinal idea of the thesis. The ‘process of individuation’, the process by which a person becomes ‘in-dividual’ that is a separate, indivisible unity or ‘whole’, is a process of transformation and renewal which at collective level takes place within the citadel. This is built on the archetype which expresses both the nature of the soul as a microcosm and of the divinely ordered Cosmos. The confrontation of the rational ‘ego’ with the unconscious is the process which brings us to the ‘self’, that organising center of the human psyche which is symbolised through the centre of the citadel. . Chapter I refers to ‘the Archetype of the Mycenaean citadel’. The Mycenaean citadel, which is built on a certain pattern of placement and orientation in relation to landscape formations, reproduces images which belong to the category of the ‘archetypal mother’. On the other hand, its adjustment to a central point with ‘high’ significance, recalls the archetypal image of Shiva-Shakti. The citadel realises the concept of a Kantian ‘One-all embracing space’; it is a cosmogonic symbol but also a philosophical one. Chapter II examines the column in its dual meaning, which is expressed in one structure; column and capital unite within their symbolism the conscious and unconscious contents of the human psyche and express the archetype of wholeness and goal of the individuation process. 33 Chapter III is a philosophical research into the ‘symbolism of the triangle’, the sacred Pythagorean symbol which expresses certain cosmological beliefs about the relation between human nature and the divinely ordered Cosmos. The triangular slab over the Lion Gate is a representation of the Dionysiac ‘palingenesia’, that is the continuity of One life, which was central to the Mycenaean religion. Chapter IV deals with the tripartite ‘megaron’. The circular hearth within the four-columned hall expresses the ‘quaternity of the One’, one of the oldest religious symbols of humanity. Zeus is revealed in the ‘fiery monadic unit-cubit’ as an all-embracing god next to goddess Hestia, symbolised by the circular hearth. The ‘megaron’ expresses the alchemical quaternity and the triad but also the psychological stages of development in the process towards wholeness. In the Conclusions it is emphasised that the Mycenaean citadel was created as if in a repetition of a cosmogony. It is a ‘mandala’, the universal image which is identified with God-image in man. Moreover it is built in order to be experienced by its citizen in the process of his psychological transformation towards the ‘self’, the divine element within the psyche which unites with the divinely ordered Cosmos

Narrative transportation in global brand content

People understand life and events around them through narratives. Narratives are a new way for marketers to convey messages to consumers about their brands and products. Brand narratives are an effective way to reach out to people due to their influential nature. Narratives have a power to change beliefs and attitudes, making them relevant and interesting for any marketer. The power of narratives has to do with narrative transportation, which narratives can trigger in people. A transported person is more likely to perceive brand or product in a more positive light. The creators of the narrative are able to influence the content of the narrative through message factors that work as antecedents for narrative transportation. This study explored narrative transportation qualities of well established advertisements. The study uses qualitative content analysis to analyze and identify narrative transportation antecedents among Cannes Lion grand prix winners in the film category between years 2005 to 2015 (15 in total). The narrative transportation antecedents are identifiable characters, imaginable plot and verisimilitude, which were used in the analysis of the data. The study analyzes the winners to make judgment on whether they can trigger narrative transportation or not. It was found that the Cannes Lion grand prix winner advertisement mostly had identifiable narratives in them. In most of the advertisement (ten out of fifteen) at least two out of three antecedents were found, thus most of them are able to trigger narrative transportation. The study also found that most narratives in the advertisement were able to be linked to the main brand narrative of the advertiser. In four of the advertisements the link to the brand narrative was not able to be established. The study concludes by discussing certain factors and aspects of the advertisements that were identified to further enhance the narrative transportation qualities of the advertisement.

Radiogenic isotopes in the Mediterranean Sea: water mass exchange and precessional variability during the Messinian

During the late Miocene, exchange between the Mediterranean Sea and Atlantic Ocean changed dramatically, culminating in the Messinian Salinity Crisis (MSC). Understanding Mediterranean-Atlantic exchange at that time could answer the enigmatic question of how so much salt built up within the Mediterranean, while furthering the development of a framework for future studies attempting to understand how changes may have impacted global thermohaline circulation. Due to their association with specific water masses at different scales, radiogenic Sr, Pb, and Nd isotope records were generated from various archives contained within marine deposits to endeavour to understand better late Miocene Mediterranean-Atlantic exchange. The archives used include foraminiferal calcite (Sr), fish teeth and bone (Nd), dispersed authigenic ferromanganese oxyhydroxides (Nd, Pb), and a ferromanganese crust (Pb). The primary focus is on sediments preserved at one end of the Betic corridor, a gateway that once connected the Mediterranean to the Atlantic through southern Spain, although other locations are investigated. The Betic gateway terminated within several marginal sub-basins before entering the Western Mediterranean; one of these is the Sorbas Basin, a well-studied location whose sediments have been astronomically tuned at high temporal resolution, providing the necessary age control for sub-precessional resolution records. Since the climatic history of the Mediterranean is strongly controlled by precessional changes in regional climate, the aim was to produce records at high (sub-precessional) temporal resolution, to be able to observe clearly any precessional cyclicity driven by regional climate which could be superimposed over longer trends. This goal was achieved for all records except the ferromanganese crust record. The 87Sr/86Sr isotope record (Ch. 3) shows precessional frequency excursions away from the global seawater curve. As precessional frequency oscillations are unexpected for this setting, a numerical box model was used to determine the mechanisms causing the excursions. To enable parameterisation of model variables, regional Sr characteristics, data from general circulation model HadCM3L, and new benthic foraminiferal assemblage data are employed. The model results imply that the Sorbas Basin likely had a positive hydrologic budget in the late Miocene, very different to that of today. Moreover, the model indicates that the mechanism controlling the Sr isotope ratio of Sorbas Basin seawater was not restriction, but a lack of density-driven exchange with the Mediterranean. Beyond improving our understanding of how marginal Mediterranean sub-basins may evolve different isotope signatures, these results have implications for astronomical tuning and stratigraphy in the region, findings which are crucial considering the geological and climatic history of the late Miocene Mediterranean is based entirely on marginal deposits. An improved estimate for the Nd isotope signature of late Miocene Mediterranean Outflow (MO) was determined by comparing Nd isotope signatures preserved in the deeper Alborán Sea at ODP Site 978 with literature data as well as the signature preserved in the Sorbas Basin (Ch. 4; -9.34 to -9.92 ± 0.37 εNd(t)). It was also inferred that it is unlikely that Nd isotopes can be used reliably to track changes in circulation within the shallow settings characteristic of the Mediterranean-Atlantic connections; this is significant in light of a recent publication documenting corridor closure using Nd isotopes. Both conclusions will prove useful for future studies attempting to understand changes in Mediterranean-Atlantic exchange. Excursions to high values, with precessional frequency, are also observed in the radiogenic Pb isotope record for the Sorbas Basin (Ch. 5). Widening the scope to include locations further away from the gateways, records were produced for late Miocene sections on Sicily and Northern Italy, and similar precessional frequency cyclicity was observed in the Pb isotope records for these sites as well. Comparing these records to proxies for Saharan dust and available whole rock data indicates that, while further analysis is necessary to draw strong conclusions, enhanced dust production during insolation minima may be driving the observed signal. These records also have implications for astronomical tuning; peaks in Pb isotope records driven by Saharan dust may be easier to connect directly to the insolation cycle, providing improved astronomical tuning points. Finally, a Pb isotope record derived using in-situ laser ablation performed on ferromanganese crust 3514-6 from the Lion Seamount, located west of Gibraltar within the MO plume, has provided evidence that plume depth shifted during the Pliocene. The record also suggests that Pb isotopes may not be a suitable proxy for changes in late Miocene Mediterranean-Atlantic exchange, since the Pb isotope signatures of regional water masses are too similar. To develop this record, the first published instance of laser ablation derived 230Thexcess measurements are combined with 10Be dating.

Response of Core Microbial Consortia to Chronic Hydrocarbon Contaminations in Coastal Sediment Habitats

Traditionally, microbial surveys investigating the effect of chronic anthropogenic pressure such as polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) contaminations consider just the alpha and beta diversity and ignore the interactions among the different taxa forming the microbial community. Here, we investigated the ecological relationships between the three domains of life (i.e., Bacteria, Archaea, and Eukarya) using 454 pyrosequencing on the 16S rRNA and 18S rRNA genes from chronically impacted and pristine sediments, along the coasts of the Mediterranean Sea (Gulf of Lion, Vermillion coast, Corsica, Bizerte lagoon and Lebanon) and the French Atlantic Ocean (Bay of Biscay and English Channel). Our approach provided a robust ecological framework for the partition of the taxa abundance distribution into 859 core Operational taxonomic units (OTUs) and 6629 satellite OTUs. OTUs forming the core microbial community showed the highest sensitivity to changes in environmental and contaminant variations, with salinity, latitude, temperature, particle size distribution, total organic carbon (TOC) and PAH concentrations as main drivers of community assembly. The core communities were dominated by Gammaproteobacteria and Deltaproteobacteria for Bacteria, by Thaumarchaeota, Bathyarchaeota and Thermoplasmata for Archaea and Metazoa and Dinoflagellata for Eukarya. In order to find associations among microorganisms, we generated a co-occurrence network in which PAHs were found to impact significantly the potential predator – prey relationship in one microbial consortium composed of ciliates and Actinobacteria. Comparison of network topological properties between contaminated and non-contaminated samples showed substantial differences in the network structure and indicated a higher vulnerability to environmental perturbations in the contaminated sediments.

Desenvolvimento e caracterização de compósito a partir da borra da piaçava para construção da parábola de um fogão solar a concentração

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

A influência da Ansiedade nas Competências dos Alunos da Academia Militar: Estudo de caso dos Exercício Finais - Leão 15

O presente estudo subordinado ao tema “A influência da Ansiedade nas Competências dos Alunos da Academia Militar: Estudo de caso dos Exercício Finais - Leão 15”, tem como principal finalidade identificar e quantificar a influência da ansiedade nas competências de liderança dos Cadetes-Alunos da Academia Militar. Contribuindo assim, para o reconhecimento das competências influenciadas pela ansiedade e a sua perceção no desempenho, mais propriamente na Informação Comportamental do Aluno. No estudo foi implementado um inquérito constituído por algumas questões de caráter sociodemográfico, um questionário de competências de liderança e um questionário de medição de ansiedade – STAI. Foi aplicado a um grupo de 165 Cadetes-Alunos da Academia, sendo 95 do 4º Ano Escolar e 80 do 1º Ano Escolar. De salientar que este inquérito foi realizado duas vezes: antes e depois do Exercício Leão 15. Com base nas respostas dadas, criou-se uma base de dados em Microsoft Excel, à qual se acrescentaram as notas de Informação Comportamental dos Aluno, e procedeu-se ao seu tratamento e análise estatística, com recurso ao Statistical Package for Social Sciences. (SPSS) Dos resultados obtidos identificaram-se várias diferenças significativas entre os níveis de ansiedade e as competências de liderança, relativamente ao género, ano escolar, curso, ao desporto mais praticado e ao período em análise do Exercício Leão 15 das quais se realçam: o género feminino revelou maior índice de ansiedade no período anterior ao Exercício; o 1ºAno Escolar revelou maior índice de ansiedade estado em ambos os períodos; o curso de EXE-Engenharias revelou maior ansiedade estado e ansiedade traço no período antes do Exercício e os alunos que praticam mais frequentemente desporto coletivo revelam maior Ansiedade Estado no período depois do Exercício Leão 15. Assinalaram-se ainda correlações significativas entre a ansiedade, as competências de liderança e a nota da Informação Comportamental dos Aluno com valores mais elevados nas seguintes: “trabalho de equipa e coesão”; “flexibilidade e adaptabilidade”; “autocontrolo” e “influência e referência”. Com o objetivo de procurar identificar e quantificar as competências mais influenciadas pela ansiedade, concluiu-se que as médias de ansiedade como variável preditora é maior nas competências: “flexibilidade e adaptabilidade”, “capacidade de resolver problemas”, “reconhecimento, feedback positivo e valorização”, “aptidão técnico profissional”, “gestão de conflitos e negociação”, “transparência”, “comunicação assertiva”, “comunicação” e “relações interpessoais”.

A primeira tradução de o leão e a joia, de Wole Soyinka, para o português do Brasil : análise descritiva da oralidade

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Letras, Departamento de Línguas Estrangeiras e Tradução, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Estudos da Tradução, 2016.

The importance of marine subsidies for terrestrial consumers in coastal Peru

The Peruvian coast is one the best examples of cross-ecosystem food web exchanges, in which resources from one of the richest marine ecosystems subsidize consumers in one of the driest deserts on Earth. Marine subsidies are resources that originate in the marine ecosystem, and that contribute to increase the density of consumers in the recipient ecosystem. I examined the effects of marine subsidies on animal populations in the Peruvian coastal desert. I combined several approaches to study the linkages between marine resources and terrestrial consumers, such as surveying the spatial distribution and estimating the relative abundance of terrestrial consumers, studying the diet of geckos and lizards through stomach content analyses, and examining the desert food web with carbon and nitrogen stable isotope analyses. I found that the distribution and diet of desert consumers were tightly coupled to the availability of marine subsidies. I revealed linkages along two pathways of nutrient fluxes: tidal action that washes ashore macroalgae and cadavers of marine organisms, and animal transport in places where pinnipeds and seabirds congregate for reproduction. In the first pathway, intertidal algivivores made marine resources available to terrestrial consumers by moving between the intertidal and supratidal zone. The relative contribution of terrestrial and algal carbon sources varied among terrestrial consumers, because scorpions assimilated a lower proportion of energy from macroalgae than did geckos and solifuges. In the second pathway, I found that pinniped colonies influenced the diet of desert consumers, and contributed to support large populations of lizards and geckos. By combining field observations, and stomach and stable isotope analyses, I constructed a simplified food web for a large sea lion colony, showing the number of trophic levels that originate from pinniped-derived nutrients. My study demonstrates the enormous importance of marine resources for the diet of desert consumers. The near absence of rainfall along the Peruvian coast promotes an extreme dependence of terrestrial consumers on marine resources, and causes permanent food web effects that are affected by temporal variability in marine productivity, rather then temporal patterns of desert plant growth.

Thermal reference points as an index for monitoring body temperature in marine mammals

BACKGROUND Monitoring body temperature is essential in veterinary care as minor variations may indicate dysfunction. Rectal temperature is widely used as a proxy for body temperature, but measuring it requires special equipment, training or restraining, and it potentially stresses animals. Infrared thermography is an alternative that reduces handling stress, is safer for technicians and works well for untrained animals. This study analysed thermal reference points in five marine mammal species: bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus); beluga whale (Delphinapterus leucas); Patagonian sea lion (Otaria flavescens); harbour seal (Phoca vitulina); and Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens). RESULTS The thermogram analysis revealed that the internal blowhole mucosa temperature is the most reliable indicator of body temperature in cetaceans. The temperatures taken during voluntary breathing with a camera held perpendicularly were practically identical to the rectal temperature in bottlenose dolphins and were only 1 °C lower than the rectal temperature in beluga whales. In pinnipeds, eye temperature appears the best parameter for temperature control. In these animals, the average times required for temperatures to stabilise after hauling out, and the average steady-state temperature values, differed according to species: Patagonian sea lions, 10 min, 31.13 °C; harbour seals, 10 min, 32.27 °C; Pacific walruses, 5 min, 29.93 °C. CONCLUSIONS The best thermographic and most stable reference points for monitoring body temperature in marine mammals are open blowhole in cetaceans and eyes in pinnipeds.

Beyond the habits of punishing, criticising and nagging : fostering respectful and socially just student relations using critical pedagogies

This chapter presents a pedagogical approach to fostering respectful and inclusive student relations. Rather than a narrow focus on managing or controlling students, this approach enables a broad and located view of student behaviour that seeks to develop and extend students' understandings of themselves and others. A key premise here is that many 'misbehaviours' in classrooms are associated with issues of identity and power and, in particular, the ways in which conventional classrooms and teacher-student relations tend to render students with little power or agency. Acting out or against this positioning as a means of asserting a sense of power or legitimacy is often at the root of disruptive or harmful behaviours. Thus, it is contended here that beginning to transform such behaviours necessitates an environment where students are accorded a voice and where they are supported to reflect critically on issues of power and identity in connected and meaningful ways. The chapter explores these issues with reference to the practices of 'Rachel', the deputy principal of a working-class secondary school in Queensland. Her practice is theorised drawing on the Productive Pedagogies model - a model designed as a meta-language for teachers to reflect on ways that they can integrate social justice issues within, rather than separate to, the pedagogical process. Given that boys continue to perpetuate the lion's share of disciplinary transgressions in schools, the focus in this chapter is on issues of masculinity.