How Much “Safety” Is Available under the U.S. Proposal to the WTO?, November 2005

Critics of the U.S. proposal to the World Trade Organization (WTO) made in October 2005 are correct when they argue that adoption of the proposal would significantly reduce available support under the current farm program structure. Using historical prices and yields from 1980 to 2004, we estimate that loan rates would have to drop by 9 percent and target prices would have to drop by 10 percent in order to meet the proposed aggregate Amber Box and Blue Box limits. While this finding should cheer those who think that reform of U.S. farm programs is long overdue, it alarms those who want to maintain a strong safety net for U.S. agriculture. The dilemma of needing to reform farm programs while maintaining a strong safety net could be resolved by redesigning programs so that they target revenue rather than price. Building on a base of 70 percent Green Box income insurance, a program that provides a crop-specific revenue guarantee equal to 98 percent of the product of the current effective target price and expected county yield would fit into the proposed aggregate Amber and Blue Box limits. Payments would be triggered whenever the product of the season-average price and county average yield fell below this 98 percent revenue guarantee. Adding the proposed crop-specific constraints lowers the coverage level to 95 percent. Moving from programs that target price to ones that target revenue would eliminate the rationale for ad hoc disaster payments. Program payments would automatically arrive whenever significant crop losses or economic losses caused by low prices occurred. Also, much of the need for the complicated mechanism (the Standard Reinsurance Agreement) that transfers most risk of the U.S. crop insurance to the federal government would be eliminated because the federal government would directly assume the risk through farm programs. Changing the focus of federal farm programs from price targeting to revenue targeting would not be easy. Farmers have long relied on price supports and the knowledge that crop losses are often adequately covered by heavily subsidized crop insurance or by ad hoc disaster payments. Farmers and their leaders would only be willing to support a change to revenue targeting if they see that the current system is untenable in an era of tight federal budgets and WTO limits.

Limits on the validity of infinite length assumptions for modelling shallow landslides

The infinite slope method is widely used as the geotechnical component of geomorphic and landscape evolution models. Its assumption that shallow landslides are infinitely long (in a downslope direction) is usually considered valid for natural landslides on the basis that they are generally long relative to their depth. However, this is rarely justified, because the critical length/depth (L/H) ratio below which edge effects become important is unknown. We establish this critical L/H ratio by benchmarking infinite slope stability predictions against finite element predictions for a set of synthetic two-dimensional slopes, assuming that the difference between the predictions is due to error in the infinite slope method. We test the infinite slope method for six different L/H ratios to find the critical ratio at which its predictions fall within 5% of those from the finite element method. We repeat these tests for 5000 synthetic slopes with a range of failure plane depths, pore water pressures, friction angles, soil cohesions, soil unit weights and slope angles characteristic of natural slopes. We find that: (1) infinite slope stability predictions are consistently too conservative for small L/H ratios; (2) the predictions always converge to within 5% of the finite element benchmarks by a L/H ratio of 25 (i.e. the infinite slope assumption is reasonable for landslides 25 times longer than they are deep); but (3) they can converge at much lower ratios depending on slope properties, particularly for low cohesion soils. The implication for catchment scale stability models is that the infinite length assumption is reasonable if their grid resolution is coarse (e.g. >25?m). However, it may also be valid even at much finer grid resolutions (e.g. 1?m), because spatial organization in the predicted pore water pressure field reduces the probability of short landslides and minimizes the risk that predicted landslides will have L/H ratios less than 25. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Movement, impacts and management of plant distributions in response to climate change: insights from invasions

A major challenge in this era of rapid climate change is to predict changes in species distributions and their impacts on ecosystems, and, if necessary, to recommend management strategies for maintenance of biodiversity or ecosystem services. Biological invasions, studied in most biomes of the world, can provide useful analogs for some of the ecological consequences of species distribution shifts in response to climate change. Invasions illustrate the adaptive and interactive responses that can occur when species are confronted with new environmental conditions. Invasion ecology complements climate change research and provides insights into the following questions: i) how will species distributions respond to climate change? ii) how will species movement affect recipient ecosystems? and iii) should we, and if so how can we, manage species and ecosystems in the face of climate change? Invasion ecology demonstrates that a trait-based approach can help to predict spread speeds and impacts on ecosystems, and has the potential to predict climate change impacts on species ranges and recipient ecosystems. However, there is a need to analyse traits in the context of life-history and demography, the stage in the colonisation process (e.g., spread, establishment or impact), the distribution of suitable habitats in the landscape, and the novel abiotic and biotic conditions under which those traits are expressed. As is the case with climate change, invasion ecology is embedded within complex societal goals. Both disciplines converge on similar questions of "when to intervene?" and "what to do?" which call for a better understanding of the ecological processes and social values associated with changing ecosystems.

Homeostasis limits the development of mature CD8+ but not CD4+ thymocytes.

The involvement of a variety of clonal selection processes during the development of T lymphocytes in the thymus has been well established. Less information, however, is available on how homeostatic mechanisms may regulate the generation and maturation of thymocytes. To investigate this question, mixed radiation bone marrow chimeras were established in which wild-type T cell precursors capable of full maturation were diluted with precursors deficient in maturation potential because of targeted mutations of the RAG1 or TCR-alpha genes. In chimeras in which the majority of thymocytes are blocked at the CD4- CD8- CD25+ stage (RAG1 deficient), and only a small proportion of T cell precursors are of wild-type origin, we observed no difference in the maturation of wild-type CD4- CD8- CD25+ cells to the CD4+ CD8+ stage as compared with control chimeras. Therefore, the number of cell divisions occurring during this transition is fixed and not subject to homeostatic regulation. In contrast, in mixed chimeras in which the majority of thymocytes are blocked at the CD4+ CD8+ stage (TCR-alpha deficient), an increased efficiency of development of wild-type mature CD8+ cells was observed. Surprisingly, the rate of generation of mature CD4+ thymocytes was not affected in these chimeras. Thus, the number of selectable CD8 lineage thymocytes apparently saturates the selection mechanism in normal mice while the development of CD4 lineage cells seems to be limited only by the expression of a suitable TCR. These data may open the way to the identification of homeostatic mechanisms regulating thymic output and CD4/CD8 lineage commitment, and the development of means to modulate it.

A Dethroned King? The Limits of State Infrastructural Power in France

Since the 1980s in Western Europe, centralized states' control over subnational territories has been deeply affected by processes of Europeanization and regionalization. These changes have raised the issue of state territorial restructuring in a particular fashion: what capacity have formerly centralized states retained to steer and control subnational territories? The article draws on Mann's concept of infrastructural power, which refers to the state's capacity to exercise control and implement political decisions over the national territory. The article applies the two main operationalizations of the concept, namely the capability of the state to exercise control and the weight of the state in the subnational territories. Empirically, the article focuses on the French state in two policy sectors (education and housing). Although France is a most likely case, this article challenges this expectation, and shows the limits of the French state's infrastructural power over the subnational territories since the late 1980s.

Limits and possibilities experienced by nurses in the treatment of women with chronic venous ulcers

Objective To understand the experiences and expectations of nurses in the treatment of women with chronic venous ulcers. Method Phenomenological research was based on Alfred Schütz, whose statements were obtained in January, 2012, through semi-structured interviews with seven nurses. Results The nurse reveals the difficulties presented by the woman in performing self-care, the perceived limitations in the treatment anchored in motivation, and the values and beliefs of women. It showed professional frustration because venous leg ulcer recurrence, lack of inputs, interdisciplinary work and training of nursing staff. There was an expected adherence to the treatment of women, and it emphasized the need for ongoing care, supported self-care and standard practices in treatment. Conclusion That treatment of chronic venous leg ulcers constitutes a challenge that requires collective investment, involving women, professionals, managers and health institutions.

COMPETENCY-BASED TRAINING IN NURSING: LIMITS AND POSSIBILITIES

Objective To analyze the possibilities and limits of competency-based training in nursing. Method An integrative review of the literature on the subject was carried out, and an analysis was made of the results of a survey evaluating a nursing course based on areas of competency. A dialog was then established between the review and the results of the research. Results On the question of which theoretical type of competency the articles from the literature relate to, there is a predominance of the constructivist perspective, followed by the functionalist approach and the dialog-based approach. In the dialog between the literature and the research, limits and possibilities were observed in the development of a training by areas of competency. Conclusion The dialog-based approach to competency is the proposition that most approximates to the profile defined by the National Curriculum Guidelines for training in nursing, and this was also identified in the evaluation survey that was studied. However, it is found that there are aspects on better work is needed, such as: partnership between school and the workplace, the role of the teacher, the role of the student, and the process of evaluation.

Physical activity modulates heat shock protein-72 expression and limits oxidative damage accumulation in a healthy elderly population aged 60 90 years

BACKGROUND: Reactive oxygen species production increases during aging, whereas protective mechanisms such as heat shock proteins (HSPs) or antioxidant capacity are depressed. Physical activity has been hypothesized to provide protection against oxidative damage during aging, but results remain controversial. This study aimed to investigate the effect of different levels of physical activity during aging on Hsp72 expression and systemic oxidative stress at rest and in response to maximal exercise. METHODS: Plasma antioxidant capacity (Trolox equivalent antioxidant capacity, TEAC), thiobarbituric acid-reactive species (TBARS), advanced oxidized proteins products (AOPP), and Hsp72 expression in leukocytes were measured before and after maximal exercise testing in 32 elderly persons (aged 73.2 years), who were assigned to two different groups depending on their level of physical activity during the past 12 months (OLow = moderate to low level; OHigh = higher level). RESULTS: The OHigh group showed higher aerobic fitness and TEAC (both representing 120% of OLow values) as well as lower oxidative damage (50% of OLow values) and Hsp72 expression. Exercise led to a lower increase in oxidative damage in the OHigh group. Aerobic fitness was positively correlated with TEAC and negatively with lipid peroxidation (TBARS). Hsp72 expression was negatively correlated with TEAC but positively correlated with TBARS levels. CONCLUSIONS: The key finding of this study is that, in people aged 60 to 90 years, long-term high level of physical activity preserved antioxidant capacity and limited oxidative damage accumulation. It also downregulated Hsp72 expression, an adaptation potentially resulting from lower levels of oxidative damage.

Transition from pediatric to adult health care: expectations of adolescents with chronic disorders and their parents.

The aim of this study was to assess the expectations of adolescents with chronic disorders with regard to transition from pediatric to adult health care and to compare them with the expectations of their parents. A cross-sectional study was carried out including 283 adolescents with chronic disorders, aged 14-25 years (median age, 16.0 years), and not yet transferred to adult health care, and their 318 parents from two university children's hospitals. The majority of adolescents and parents (64%/70%) perceived the ages of 18-19 years and older as the best time to transfer to adult health care. Chronological age and feeling too old to see a pediatrician were reported as the most important decision factors for the transfer while the severity of the disease was not considered important. The most relevant barriers were feeling at ease with the pediatrician (45%/38%), anxiety (20%/24%), and lack of information about the adult specialist and health care (18%/27%). Of the 51% of adolescents with whom the pediatric specialist had spoken about the transfer, 53% of adolescents and 69% of parents preferred a joint transfer meeting with the pediatric and adult specialist, and 24% of these adolescents declared that their health professional had offered this option. In summary, the age preference for adolescents with chronic disorders and their parents to transfer to adult health care was higher than the upper age limits for admission to pediatric health care in many European countries. Anxiety and a lack of information of both adolescents and their parents were among the most important barriers for a smooth and timely transfer according to adolescents and parents.

Development and Validation of Decision Rules to Guide Frequency of Monitoring CD4 Cell Count in HIV-1 Infection before Starting Antiretroviral Therapy.

Background: Although CD4 cell count monitoring is used to decide when to start antiretroviral therapy in patients with HIV-1 infection, there are no evidence-based recommendations regarding its optimal frequency. It is common practice to monitor every 3 to 6 months, often coupled with viral load monitoring. We developed rules to guide frequency of CD4 cell count monitoring in HIV infection before starting antiretroviral therapy, which we validated retrospectively in patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.Methodology/Principal Findings: We built up two prediction rules ("Snap-shot rule" for a single sample and "Track-shot rule" for multiple determinations) based on a systematic review of published longitudinal analyses of CD4 cell count trajectories. We applied the rules in 2608 untreated patients to classify their 18 061 CD4 counts as either justifiable or superfluous, according to their prior >= 5% or < 5% chance of meeting predetermined thresholds for starting treatment. The percentage of measurements that both rules falsely deemed superfluous never exceeded 5%. Superfluous CD4 determinations represented 4%, 11%, and 39% of all actual determinations for treatment thresholds of 500, 350, and 200x10(6)/L, respectively. The Track-shot rule was only marginally superior to the Snap-shot rule. Both rules lose usefulness for CD4 counts coming near to treatment threshold.Conclusions/Significance: Frequent CD4 count monitoring of patients with CD4 counts well above the threshold for initiating therapy is unlikely to identify patients who require therapy. It appears sufficient to measure CD4 cell count 1 year after a count > 650 for a threshold of 200, > 900 for 350, or > 1150 for 500x10(6)/L, respectively. When CD4 counts fall below these limits, increased monitoring frequency becomes advisable. These rules offer guidance for efficient CD4 monitoring, particularly in resource-limited settings.

An attempt to refine rockfall hazard zoning based on the kinetic energy, frequency and fragmentation degree

Rockfall hazard zoning is usually achieved using a qualitative estimate of hazard, and not an absolute scale. In Switzerland, danger maps, which correspond to a hazard zoning depending on the intensity of the considered phenomenon (e.g. kinetic energy for rockfalls), are replacing hazard maps. Basically, the danger grows with the mean frequency and with the intensity of the rockfall. This principle based on intensity thresholds may also be applied to other intensity threshold values than those used in Switzerland for rockfall hazard zoning method, i.e. danger mapping. In this paper, we explore the effect of slope geometry and rockfall frequency on the rockfall hazard zoning. First, the transition from 2D zoning to 3D zoning based on rockfall trajectory simulation is examined; then, its dependency on slope geometry is emphasized. The spatial extent of hazard zones is examined, showing that limits may vary widely depending on the rockfall frequency. This approach is especially dedicated to highly populated regions, because the hazard zoning has to be very fine in order to delineate the greatest possible territory containing acceptable risks.

Optimal second-degree price discrimination and arbitrage: On the role of asymetric information among buyers

The traditional theory of monopolistic screening tackles individualself-selection but does not address the possibility that buyers couldform a coalition to coordinate their purchases and to reallocate thegoods. In this paper, we design the optimal sale mechanism which takesinto account both individual and coalition incentive compatibilityfocusing on the role of asymmetric information among buyers. We showthat when a coalition of buyers is formed under asymmetric information,the monopolist can do as well as when there is no coalition. Although inthe optimal sale mechanism marginal rates of substitution are notequalized across buyers (hence there exists room for arbitrage), theyfail to realize the gains from arbitrage because of the transaction costsin coalition formation generated by asymmetric information.

Evolution in heterogeneous populations: from migration models to fixation probabilities.

Although dispersal is recognized as a key issue in several fields of population biology (such as behavioral ecology, population genetics, metapopulation dynamics or evolutionary modeling), these disciplines focus on different aspects of the concept and often make different implicit assumptions regarding migration models. Using simulations, we investigate how such assumptions translate into effective gene flow and fixation probability of selected alleles. Assumptions regarding migration type (e.g. source-sink, resident pre-emption, or balanced dispersal) and patterns (e.g. stepping-stone versus island dispersal) have large impacts when demes differ in sizes or selective pressures. The effects of fragmentation, as well as the spatial localization of newly arising mutations, also strongly depend on migration type and patterns. Migration rate also matters: depending on the migration type, fixation probabilities at an intermediate migration rate may lie outside the range defined by the low- and high-migration limits when demes differ in sizes. Given the extreme sensitivity of fixation probability to characteristics of dispersal, we underline the importance of making explicit (and documenting empirically) the crucial ecological/ behavioral assumptions underlying migration models.

Building adaptive capacity and resilience to climate change in the water sector in Cape Verde

Purpose of the evaluation This is a scheduled standard mid-term evaluation (MTR) of a UNDP implemented GEF LDCF co-financed project. It is conducted by a team of an international and a national independent evaluator. The objective of the MTR, as set out in the Terms of Reference (TORs; Annex 1), is to provide an independent analysis of the progress of the project so far. The MTR aims to:  identify potential project design problems,  assess progress towards the achievement of the project objective and outcomes,  identify and document lessons learned (including lessons that might improve design and implementation of other projects, including UNDP-GEF supported projects), and  make recommendations regarding specific actions that should be taken to improve the project. The MTR is intended to assess signs of project success or failure and identify the necessary changes to be made. The project commenced its implementation in the first half of 2010 with the recruitment of project staff. According to the updated project plan, it is due to close in July 201410 with operations scaling down in December 2013 due to funding limits. Because of a slow implementation start, the mid-term evaluation was delayed to July 201311 The intended target audience of the evaluation are:  The project team and decision makers in the INGRH  The GEF and UNFCCC Operational Focal Points  The project partners and beneficiaries  UNDP in Cape Verde as well as the regional and headquarter (HQ) office levels  The GEF Secretariat.

How to recognize opportunities: Heterarchical search in a Wall Street trading room

Our task in this paper is to analyze the organization of trading in the era of quantitativefinance. To do so, we conduct an ethnography of arbitrage, the trading strategy that bestexemplifies finance in the wake of the quantitative revolution. In contrast to value andmomentum investing, we argue, arbitrage involves an art of association - the constructionof equivalence (comparability) of properties across different assets. In place of essentialor relationa l characteristics, the peculiar valuation that takes place in arbitrage is based on an operation that makes something the measure of something else - associating securities to each other. The process of recognizing opportunities and the practices of making novel associations are shaped by the specific socio-spatial and socio-technical configurations of the trading room. Calculation is distributed across persons and instruments as the trading room organizes interaction among diverse principles of valuation.