530 resultados para Judgmental heuristics
Resumo:
A heuristic for batching orders in a manual order-picking warehouse has been developed. It prioritizes orders based on due time to prevent mixing of orders of different priority levels. The order density of aisles criterion is used to form batches. It also determines the number of pickers required and assigns batches to pickers such that there is a uniform workload per unit of time. The effectiveness of the heuristic was studied by observing computational time and aisle congestion for various numbers of total orders and number of orders that form a batch. An initial heuristic performed well for small number of orders, but for larger number of orders, a partitioning technique is computationally more efficient, needing only minutes to solve for thousands of orders, while preserving 90% of the batch quality obtained with the original heuristic. Comparative studies between the heuristic and other published heuristics are needed. ^
Resumo:
This research is motivated by a practical application observed at a printed circuit board (PCB) manufacturing facility. After assembly, the PCBs (or jobs) are tested in environmental stress screening (ESS) chambers (or batch processing machines) to detect early failures. Several PCBs can be simultaneously tested as long as the total size of all the PCBs in the batch does not violate the chamber capacity. PCBs from different production lines arrive dynamically to a queue in front of a set of identical ESS chambers, where they are grouped into batches for testing. Each line delivers PCBs that vary in size and require different testing (or processing) times. Once a batch is formed, its processing time is the longest processing time among the PCBs in the batch, and its ready time is given by the PCB arriving last to the batch. ESS chambers are expensive and a bottleneck. Consequently, its makespan has to be minimized. ^ A mixed-integer formulation is proposed for the problem under study and compared to a formulation recently published. The proposed formulation is better in terms of the number of decision variables, linear constraints and run time. A procedure to compute the lower bound is proposed. For sparse problems (i.e. when job ready times are dispersed widely), the lower bounds are close to optimum. ^ The problem under study is NP-hard. Consequently, five heuristics, two metaheuristics (i.e. simulated annealing (SA) and greedy randomized adaptive search procedure (GRASP)), and a decomposition approach (i.e. column generation) are proposed—especially to solve problem instances which require prohibitively long run times when a commercial solver is used. Extensive experimental study was conducted to evaluate the different solution approaches based on the solution quality and run time. ^ The decomposition approach improved the lower bounds (or linear relaxation solution) of the mixed-integer formulation. At least one of the proposed heuristic outperforms the Modified Delay heuristic from the literature. For sparse problems, almost all the heuristics report a solution close to optimum. GRASP outperforms SA at a higher computational cost. The proposed approaches are viable to implement as the run time is very short. ^
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The Unified Modeling Language (UML) has quickly become the industry standard for object-oriented software development. It is being widely used in organizations and institutions around the world. However, UML is often found to be too complex for novice systems analysts. Although prior research has identified difficulties novice analysts encounter in learning UML, no viable solution has been proposed to address these difficulties. Sequence-diagram modeling, in particular, has largely been overlooked. The sequence diagram models the behavioral aspects of an object-oriented software system in terms of interactions among its building blocks, i.e. objects and classes. It is one of the most commonly-used UML diagrams in practice. However, there has been little research on sequence-diagram modeling. The current literature scarcely provides effective guidelines for developing a sequence diagram. Such guidelines will be greatly beneficial to novice analysts who, unlike experienced systems analysts, do not possess relevant prior experience to easily learn how to develop a sequence diagram. There is the need for an effective sequence-diagram modeling technique for novices. This dissertation reports a research study that identified novice difficulties in modeling a sequence diagram and proposed a technique called CHOP (CHunking, Ordering, Patterning), which was designed to reduce the cognitive load by addressing the cognitive complexity of sequence-diagram modeling. The CHOP technique was evaluated in a controlled experiment against a technique recommended in a well-known textbook, which was found to be representative of approaches provided in many textbooks as well as practitioner literatures. The results indicated that novice analysts were able to perform better using the CHOP technique. This outcome seems have been enabled by pattern-based heuristics provided by the technique. Meanwhile, novice analysts rated the CHOP technique more useful although not significantly easier to use than the control technique. The study established that the CHOP technique is an effective sequence-diagram modeling technique for novice analysts.
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A job shop with one batch processing and several discrete machines is analyzed. Given a set of jobs, their process routes, processing requirements, and size, the objective is to schedule the jobs such that the makespan is minimized. The batch processing machine can process a batch of jobs as long as the machine capacity is not violated. The batch processing time is equal to the longest processing job in the batch. The problem under study can be represented as Jm:batch:Cmax. If no batches were formed, the scheduling problem under study reduces to the classical job shop scheduling problem (i.e. Jm:: Cmax), which is known to be NP-hard. This research extends the scheduling literature by combining Jm::Cmax with batch processing. The primary contributions are the mathematical formulation, a new network representation and several solution approaches. The problem under study is observed widely in metal working and other industries, but received limited or no attention due to its complexity. A novel network representation of the problem using disjunctive and conjunctive arcs, and a mathematical formulation are proposed to minimize the makespan. Besides that, several algorithms, like batch forming heuristics, dispatching rules, Modified Shifting Bottleneck, Tabu Search (TS) and Simulated Annealing (SA), were developed and implemented. An experimental study was conducted to evaluate the proposed heuristics, and the results were compared to those from a commercial solver (i.e., CPLEX). TS and SA, with the combination of MWKR-FF as the initial solution, gave the best solutions among all the heuristics proposed. Their results were close to CPLEX; and for some larger instances, with total operations greater than 225, they were competitive in terms of solution quality and runtime. For some larger problem instances, CPLEX was unable to report a feasible solution even after running for several hours. Between SA and the experimental study indicated that SA produced a better average Cmax for all instances. The solution approaches proposed will benefit practitioners to schedule a job shop (with both discrete and batch processing machines) more efficiently. The proposed solution approaches are easier to implement and requires short run times to solve large problem instances.
Resumo:
This research aims at a study of the hybrid flow shop problem which has parallel batch-processing machines in one stage and discrete-processing machines in other stages to process jobs of arbitrary sizes. The objective is to minimize the makespan for a set of jobs. The problem is denoted as: FF: batch1,sj:Cmax. The problem is formulated as a mixed-integer linear program. The commercial solver, AMPL/CPLEX, is used to solve problem instances to their optimality. Experimental results show that AMPL/CPLEX requires considerable time to find the optimal solution for even a small size problem, i.e., a 6-job instance requires 2 hours in average. A bottleneck-first-decomposition heuristic (BFD) is proposed in this study to overcome the computational (time) problem encountered while using the commercial solver. The proposed BFD heuristic is inspired by the shifting bottleneck heuristic. It decomposes the entire problem into three sub-problems, and schedules the sub-problems one by one. The proposed BFD heuristic consists of four major steps: formulating sub-problems, prioritizing sub-problems, solving sub-problems and re-scheduling. For solving the sub-problems, two heuristic algorithms are proposed; one for scheduling a hybrid flow shop with discrete processing machines, and the other for scheduling parallel batching machines (single stage). Both consider job arrival and delivery times. An experiment design is conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed BFD, which is further evaluated against a set of common heuristics including a randomized greedy heuristic and five dispatching rules. The results show that the proposed BFD heuristic outperforms all these algorithms. To evaluate the quality of the heuristic solution, a procedure is developed to calculate a lower bound of makespan for the problem under study. The lower bound obtained is tighter than other bounds developed for related problems in literature. A meta-search approach based on the Genetic Algorithm concept is developed to evaluate the significance of further improving the solution obtained from the proposed BFD heuristic. The experiment indicates that it reduces the makespan by 1.93 % in average within a negligible time when problem size is less than 50 jobs.
Resumo:
A trial judge serves as gatekeeper in the courtroom to ensure that only reliable expert witness testimony is presented to the jury. Nevertheless, research shows that while judges take seriously their gatekeeper status, legal professionals in general are unable to identify well conducted research and are unable to define falsifiability, error rates, peer review status, and scientific validity (Gatkowski et al., 2001; Kovera & McAuliff, 2000). However, the abilities to identify quality scientific research and define scientific concepts are critical to preventing "junk" science from entering courtrooms. Research thus far has neglected to address that before selecting expert witnesses, judges and attorneys must first evaluate experts' CVs rather than their scientific testimony to determine whether legal standards of admissibility have been met. The quality of expert testimony, therefore, largely depends on the ability to evaluate properly experts' credentials. Theoretical models of decision making suggest that ability/knowledge and motivation are required to process information systematically. Legal professionals (judges and attorneys) were expected to process CVs heuristically when rendering expert witness decisions due to a lack of training in areas of psychology expertise.^ Legal professionals' (N = 150) and undergraduate students' (N = 468) expert witness decisions were examined and compared. Participants were presented with one of two versions of a criminal case calling for the testimony of either a clinical psychology expert or an experimental legal psychology expert. Participants then read one of eight curricula vitae that varied area of expertise (clinical vs. legal psychology), previous expert witness experience (previous experience vs. no previous experience), and scholarly publication record (30 publications vs. no publications) before deciding whether the expert was qualified to testify in the case. Follow-up measures assessed participants' decision making processes.^ Legal professionals were not better than college students at rendering quality psychology expert witness admissibility decisions yet they were significantly more confident in their decisions. Legal professionals rated themselves significantly higher than students in ability, knowledge, and motivation to choose an appropriate psychology expert although their expert witness decisions were equally inadequate. Findings suggest that participants relied on heuristics, such as previous expert witness experience, to render decisions.^
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We present our approach to real-time service-oriented scheduling problems with the objective of maximizing the total system utility. Different from the traditional utility accrual scheduling problems that each task is associated with only a single time utility function (TUF), we associate two different TUFs—a profit TUF and a penalty TUF—with each task, to model the real-time services that not only need to reward the early completions but also need to penalize the abortions or deadline misses. The scheduling heuristics we proposed in this paper judiciously accept, schedule, and abort real-time services when necessary to maximize the accrued utility. Our extensive experimental results show that our proposed algorithms can significantly outperform the traditional scheduling algorithms such as the Earliest Deadline First (EDF), the traditional utility accrual (UA) scheduling algorithms, and an earlier scheduling approach based on a similar model.
Resumo:
The Unified Modeling Language (UML) has quickly become the industry standard for object-oriented software development. It is being widely used in organizations and institutions around the world. However, UML is often found to be too complex for novice systems analysts. Although prior research has identified difficulties novice analysts encounter in learning UML, no viable solution has been proposed to address these difficulties. Sequence-diagram modeling, in particular, has largely been overlooked. The sequence diagram models the behavioral aspects of an object-oriented software system in terms of interactions among its building blocks, i.e. objects and classes. It is one of the most commonly-used UML diagrams in practice. However, there has been little research on sequence-diagram modeling. The current literature scarcely provides effective guidelines for developing a sequence diagram. Such guidelines will be greatly beneficial to novice analysts who, unlike experienced systems analysts, do not possess relevant prior experience to easily learn how to develop a sequence diagram. There is the need for an effective sequence-diagram modeling technique for novices. This dissertation reports a research study that identified novice difficulties in modeling a sequence diagram and proposed a technique called CHOP (CHunking, Ordering, Patterning), which was designed to reduce the cognitive load by addressing the cognitive complexity of sequence-diagram modeling. The CHOP technique was evaluated in a controlled experiment against a technique recommended in a well-known textbook, which was found to be representative of approaches provided in many textbooks as well as practitioner literatures. The results indicated that novice analysts were able to perform better using the CHOP technique. This outcome seems have been enabled by pattern-based heuristics provided by the technique. Meanwhile, novice analysts rated the CHOP technique more useful although not significantly easier to use than the control technique. The study established that the CHOP technique is an effective sequence-diagram modeling technique for novice analysts.
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The purpose of this study is to adapt and combine the following methods of sales forecasting: Classical Time-Series Decomposition, Operationally Based Data and Judgmental Forecasting for use by military club managers.
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Database design is a difficult problem for non-expert designers. It is desirable to assist such designers during the problem solving process by means of a knowledge based (KB) system. Although a number of prototype KB systems have been proposed, there are many shortcomings. Firstly, few have incorporated sufficient expertise in modeling relationships, particularly higher order relationships. Secondly, there does not seem to be any published empirical study that experimentally tested the effectiveness of any of these KB tools. Thirdly, problem solving behavior of non-experts, whom the systems were intended to assist, has not been one of the bases for system design. In this project, a consulting system, called CODA, for conceptual database design that addresses the above short comings was developed and empirically validated. More specifically, the CODA system incorporates (a) findings on why non-experts commit errors and (b) heuristics for modeling relationships. Two approaches to knowledge base implementation were used and compared in this project, namely system restrictiveness and decisional guidance (Silver 1990). The Restrictive system uses a proscriptive approach and limits the designer's choices at various design phases by forcing him/her to follow a specific design path. The Guidance system approach, which is less restrictive, involves providing context specific, informative and suggestive guidance throughout the design process. Both the approaches would prevent erroneous design decisions. The main objectives of the study are to evaluate (1) whether the knowledge-based system is more effective than the system without a knowledge-base and (2) which approach to knowledge implementation - whether Restrictive or Guidance - is more effective. To evaluate the effectiveness of the knowledge base itself, the systems were compared with a system that does not incorporate the expertise (Control). An experimental procedure using student subjects was used to test the effectiveness of the systems. The subjects solved a task without using the system (pre-treatment task) and another task using one of the three systems, viz. Control, Guidance or Restrictive (experimental task). Analysis of experimental task scores of those subjects who performed satisfactorily in the pre-treatment task revealed that the knowledge based approach to database design support lead to more accurate solutions than the control system. Among the two KB approaches, Guidance approach was found to lead to better performance when compared to the Control system. It was found that the subjects perceived the Restrictive system easier to use than the Guidance system.
Resumo:
Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to ascertain how today’s international marketers can perform better on the global scene by harnessing spontaneity. Design/methodology/approach: The authors draw on contingency theory to develop a model of the spontaneity – international marketing performance relationship, and identify three potential moderators, namely, strategic planning, centralization, and market dynamism. The authors test the model via structural equation modeling with survey data from 197 UK exporters. Findings: The results indicate that spontaneity is beneficial to exporters in terms of enhancing profit performance. In addition, greater centralization and strategic planning strengthen the positive effects of spontaneity. However, market dynamism mitigates the positive effect of spontaneity on export performance (when customer needs are volatile, spontaneous decisions do not function as well in terms of ensuring success). Practical implications: Learning to be spontaneous when making export decisions appears to result in favorable outcomes for the export function. To harness spontaneity, export managers should look to develop company heuristics (increase centralization and strategic planning). Finally, if operating in dynamic export market environments, the role of spontaneity is weaker, so more conventional decision-making approaches should be adopted. Originality/value: The international marketing environment typically requires decisions to be flexible and fast. In this context, spontaneity could enable accelerated and responsive decision-making, allowing international marketers to realize superior performance. Yet, there is a lack of research on decision-making spontaneity and its potential for international marketing performance enhancement.
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This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Parallel Problem Solving from Nature, PPSN 2016, held in Edinburgh, UK, in September 2016. The total of 93 revised full papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 224 submissions. The meeting began with four workshops which offered an ideal opportunity to explore specific topics in intelligent transportation Workshop, landscape-aware heuristic search, natural computing in scheduling and timetabling, and advances in multi-modal optimization. PPSN XIV also included sixteen free tutorials to give us all the opportunity to learn about new aspects: gray box optimization in theory; theory of evolutionary computation; graph-based and cartesian genetic programming; theory of parallel evolutionary algorithms; promoting diversity in evolutionary optimization: why and how; evolutionary multi-objective optimization; intelligent systems for smart cities; advances on multi-modal optimization; evolutionary computation in cryptography; evolutionary robotics - a practical guide to experiment with real hardware; evolutionary algorithms and hyper-heuristics; a bridge between optimization over manifolds and evolutionary computation; implementing evolutionary algorithms in the cloud; the attainment function approach to performance evaluation in EMO; runtime analysis of evolutionary algorithms: basic introduction; meta-model assisted (evolutionary) optimization. The papers are organized in topical sections on adaption, self-adaption and parameter tuning; differential evolution and swarm intelligence; dynamic, uncertain and constrained environments; genetic programming; multi-objective, many-objective and multi-level optimization; parallel algorithms and hardware issues; real-word applications and modeling; theory; diversity and landscape analysis.
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Previous research on person perception has shown that people form first impressions with remarkable speed and accuracy, but relatively little is known about the speed and accuracy of trustworthiness judgments across cultures. The present research examined these by asking Chinese and Canadians to infer trustworthiness from faces of criminals and non-criminals from different cultural backgrounds across two domains (i.e., financial crime in Study 1 and violent crime in Study 2). Across both studies, we found that when participants were given time and opportunity, Chinese tended to take a longer time than Canadians to make trustworthiness judgments (although this difference did not reach statistical significance in Study 2). In Study 1, we found that perceivers from both cultures were accurate at judging European North Americans (ENA) corporate criminals as less trustworthy than ENA non-criminal executives, although they did not differentiate Asian corporate criminals from Asian non-criminal executives. In Study 2, we found that perceivers from both cultures were accurate at judging both Asian and ENA violent criminals as less trustworthy than Asian and ENA non-criminals. Chinese were also accurate at rating Middle Eastern violent criminals as less trustworthy than Middle Eastern non-criminals, but Canadians did not differentiate them in terms of their trustworthiness ratings. In terms of their crime likelihood ratings, however, both Chinese and Canadians accurately rated all the criminals as more likely to commit violent crimes than the non-criminals, regardless of the targets’ ethnicities. Finally, we discussed some of the practical implications of our findings on detection of deception, as well as how providing a context for trustworthiness judgments might have played an important role in people’s judgmental accuracy.
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Les réseaux de capteurs sont formés d’un ensemble de dispositifs capables de prendre individuellement des mesures d’un environnement particulier et d’échanger de l’information afin d’obtenir une représentation de haut niveau sur les activités en cours dans la zone d’intérêt. Une telle détection distribuée, avec de nombreux appareils situés à proximité des phénomènes d’intérêt, est pertinente dans des domaines tels que la surveillance, l’agriculture, l’observation environnementale, la surveillance industrielle, etc. Nous proposons dans cette thèse plusieurs approches pour effectuer l’optimisation des opérations spatio-temporelles de ces dispositifs, en déterminant où les placer dans l’environnement et comment les contrôler au fil du temps afin de détecter les cibles mobiles d’intérêt. La première nouveauté consiste en un modèle de détection réaliste représentant la couverture d’un réseau de capteurs dans son environnement. Nous proposons pour cela un modèle 3D probabiliste de la capacité de détection d’un capteur sur ses abords. Ce modèle inègre également de l’information sur l’environnement grâce à l’évaluation de la visibilité selon le champ de vision. À partir de ce modèle de détection, l’optimisation spatiale est effectuée par la recherche du meilleur emplacement et l’orientation de chaque capteur du réseau. Pour ce faire, nous proposons un nouvel algorithme basé sur la descente du gradient qui a été favorablement comparée avec d’autres méthodes génériques d’optimisation «boites noires» sous l’aspect de la couverture du terrain, tout en étant plus efficace en terme de calculs. Une fois que les capteurs placés dans l’environnement, l’optimisation temporelle consiste à bien couvrir un groupe de cibles mobiles dans l’environnement. D’abord, on effectue la prédiction de la position future des cibles mobiles détectées par les capteurs. La prédiction se fait soit à l’aide de l’historique des autres cibles qui ont traversé le même environnement (prédiction à long terme), ou seulement en utilisant les déplacements précédents de la même cible (prédiction à court terme). Nous proposons de nouveaux algorithmes dans chaque catégorie qui performent mieux ou produits des résultats comparables par rapport aux méthodes existantes. Une fois que les futurs emplacements de cibles sont prédits, les paramètres des capteurs sont optimisés afin que les cibles soient correctement couvertes pendant un certain temps, selon les prédictions. À cet effet, nous proposons une méthode heuristique pour faire un contrôle de capteurs, qui se base sur les prévisions probabilistes de trajectoire des cibles et également sur la couverture probabiliste des capteurs des cibles. Et pour terminer, les méthodes d’optimisation spatiales et temporelles proposées ont été intégrées et appliquées avec succès, ce qui démontre une approche complète et efficace pour l’optimisation spatio-temporelle des réseaux de capteurs.
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Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06