866 resultados para Interval forecasting
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Introduction Jatropha gossypifolia has been used quite extensively by traditional medicine for the treatment of several diseases in South America and Africa. This medicinal plant has therapeutic potential as a phytomedicine and therefore the establishment of innovative analytical methods to characterise their active components is crucial to the future development of a quality product. Objective To enhance the chromatographic resolution of HPLC-UV-diode-array detector (DAD) experiments applying chemometric tools. Methods Crude leave extracts from J. gossypifolia were analysed by HPLC-DAD. A chromatographic band deconvolution method was designed and applied using interval multivariate curve resolution by alternating least squares (MCR-ALS). Results The MCR-ALS method allowed the deconvolution from up to 117% more bands, compared with the original HPLC-DAD experiments, even in regions where the UV spectra showed high similarity. The method assisted in the dereplication of three C-glycosylflavones isomers: vitexin/isovitexin, orientin/homorientin and schaftoside/isoschaftoside. Conclusion The MCR-ALS method is shown to be a powerful tool to solve problems of chromatographic band overlapping from complex mixtures such as natural crude samples. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Extracts from J. gossypifolia were analyzed by HPLC-DAD and, dereplicated applying MCR-ALS. The method assisted in the detection of three C-glycosylflavones isomers: vitexin/isovitexin, orientin/homorientin and schaftoside/isoschaftoside. The application of MCR-ALS allowed solving problems of chromatographic band overlapping from complex mixtures such as natural crude samples. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Includes bibliography
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Includes bibliography
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Includes bibliography
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O modelo OLAM tem como característica a vantagem de representar simultaneamente os fenômenos meteorológicos de escala global e regional através de um esquema de refinamento de grades. Durante o projeto REMAM, o modelo foi aplicado para alguns estudos de caso com objetivo de avaliar o desempenho do modelo na previsão numérica de tempo para a região leste da Amazônia. Estudos de caso foram feitos para os doze meses do ano de 2009. Os resultados do modelo para estes casos foram comparados com dados observados na região de estudo. A análise dos dados de precipitação mostrou que o modelo consegue representar a distribuição média da precipitação acumulada e os aspectos da sazonalidade da ocorrência dos eventos, mas não consegue prever individualmente a acumulação de precipitação local. No entanto, avaliação individual de alguns casos mostrou que o modelo OLAM conseguiu representar dinamicamente e prever, com alguns dias de antecedência, o desenvolvimento de fenômenos meteorológicos costeiros como as linhas de instabilidade, que são um dos mais importantes sistemas precipitantes da Amazônia.
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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The Box-Cox transformation is a technique mostly utilized to turn the probabilistic distribution of a time series data into approximately normal. And this helps statistical and neural models to perform more accurate forecastings. However, it introduces a bias when the reversion of the transformation is conducted with the predicted data. The statistical methods to perform a bias-free reversion require, necessarily, the assumption of Gaussianity of the transformed data distribution, which is a rare event in real-world time series. So, the aim of this study was to provide an effective method of removing the bias when the reversion of the Box-Cox transformation is executed. Thus, the developed method is based on a focused time lagged feedforward neural network, which does not require any assumption about the transformed data distribution. Therefore, to evaluate the performance of the proposed method, numerical simulations were conducted and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error, the Theil Inequality Index and the Signal-to-Noise ratio of 20-step-ahead forecasts of 40 time series were compared, and the results obtained indicate that the proposed reversion method is valid and justifies new studies. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)