Integrated plant monitoring to improve plant operation strategy and results

The more and more demanding conditions in the power generation sector requires to apply all the available technologies to optimize processes and reduce costs. An integrated asset management strategy, combining technical analysis and operation and maintenance management can help to improve plant performance, flexibility and reliability. In order to deploy such a model it is necessary to combine plant data and specific equipment condition information, with different systems devoted to analyze performance and equipment condition, and take advantage of the results to support operation and maintenance decisions. This model that has been dealt in certain detail for electricity transmission and distribution networks, is not yet broadly extended in the power generation sector, as proposed in this study for the case of a combined power plant. Its application would turn in direct benefit for the operation and maintenance and for the interaction to the energy market

GPS-PYMEs: Marco de Gestión de Proyectos para el desarrollo Seguro en PYMEs

En la actualidad no se concibe una empresa, por pequeña que esta sea, sin algún tipo de servicio TI. Se presenta para cada empresa el reto de emprender proyectos para desarrollar o contratar servicios de TI que soporten los diferentes procesos de negocio de la empresa. Por otro lado, a menos que los servicios de TI estén aislados de toda red, lo cual es prácticamente imposible en la actualidad, no existe un servicio o un proyecto que lo desarrolle garantizando el 100% de seguridad. Así la empresa maneja una dualidad entre desarrollar productos/servicios de TI seguros y el mantenimiento constante de sus servicios TI en estado seguro. La gestión de los proyectos para el desarrollo de los servicios de TI se aborda, en la mayoría de las empresas, aplicando distintas prácticas, utilizadas en otros proyectos y recomendadas, a tal efecto, por marcos y estándares con mayor reconocimiento. Por lo general, estos marcos incluyen, entre sus procesos, la gestión de los riesgos orientada al cumplimiento de plazos, de costes y, a veces, de la funcionalidad del producto o servicio. Sin embargo, en estas prácticas se obvian los aspectos de seguridad (confidencialidad, integridad y disponibilidad) del producto/servicio, necesarios durante el desarrollo del proyecto. Además, una vez entregado el servicio, a nivel operativo, cuando surge algún fallo relativo a estos aspectos de seguridad, se aplican soluciones ad-hoc. Esto provoca grandes pérdidas y, en ocasiones, pone en peligro la continuidad de la propia empresa. Este problema, se va acrecentando cada día más, en cualquier tipo de empresa y, son las PYMEs, por su la falta de conocimiento del problema en sí y la escasez de recursos metodológicos y técnicos, las empresas más vulnerables. Por todo lo anterior, esta tesis doctoral tiene un doble objetivo. En primer lugar, demostrar la necesidad de contar con un marco de trabajo que, integrado con otros posibles marcos y estándares, sea sencillo de aplicar en distintos tipos y envergaduras de proyectos, y que guíe a las PYMEs en la gestión de proyectos para el desarrollo seguro y posterior mantenimiento de la seguridad de sus servicios de TI. En segundo lugar, cubrir esta necesidad desarrollando un marco de trabajo que ofrezca un modelo de proceso genérico aplicable sobre distintos patrones de proyecto y una librería de activos de seguridad que sirva a las PYMEs de guía durante el proceso de gestión del proyecto para el desarrollo seguro. El modelo de proceso del marco propuesto describe actividades en los tres niveles organizativos de la empresa (estratégico, táctico y operativo). Está basado en el ciclo de mejora continua (PDCA) y en la filosofía Seguridad por Diseño, propuesta por Siemens. Se detallan las prácticas específicas de cada actividad, las entradas, salidas, acciones, roles, KPIs y técnicas aplicables para cada actividad. Estas prácticas específicas pueden aplicarse o no, a criterio del jefe de proyecto y de acuerdo al estado de la empresa y proyecto que se quiera desarrollar, estableciendo así distintos patrones de proceso. Para la validación del marco se han elegido dos PYMEs. La primera del sector servicios y la segunda del sector TIC. El modelo de proceso ha sido aplicado sobre un mismo patrón de proyecto que responde a necesidades comunes a ambas empresas. El patrón de proceso ha sido valorado en los proyectos elegidos en ambas empresas, antes y después de su aplicación. Los resultados del estudio, después de su aplicación en ambas empresas, han permitido la validación del patrón de proceso, en la mejora de la gestión de proyecto para el desarrollo seguro de TI en las PYMEs. ABSTRACT Today a company without any IT service is not conceived, even if it is small either. It presents the challenge for each company to undertake projects to develop or contract IT services that support the different business processes of the company. On the other hand, unless IT services are isolated from whole network, which is virtually impossible at present, there is no service or project, which develops guaranteeing 100% security. So the company handles a duality, develop products / insurance IT services and constant maintenance of their IT services in a safe state. The project management for the development of IT services is addressed, in most companies, using different practices used in other projects and recommended for this purpose by frameworks and standards with greater recognition. Generally, these frameworks include, among its processes, risk management aimed at meeting deadlines, costs and, sometimes, the functionality of the product or service. However, safety issues such as confidentiality, integrity and availability of the product / service, necessary for the project, they are ignored in these practices. Moreover, once the service delivered at the operational level, when a fault on these safety issues arise, ad-hoc solutions are applied. This causes great losses and sometimes threatens the continuity of the company. This problem is adding more every day, in any kind of business and SMEs are, by their lack of knowledge of the problem itself and the lack of methodological and technical resources, the most vulnerable companies. For all these reasons, this thesis has two objectives. Firstly demonstrate the need for a framework that integrated with other possible frameworks and standards, it is simple to apply in different types and wingspans of projects, and to guide SMEs in the management of development projects safely, and subsequent maintenance of the security of their IT services. Secondly meet this need by developing a framework that provides a generic process model applicable to project different patterns and a library of security assets, which serve to guide SMEs in the process of project management for development safe. The process model describes the proposed activities under the three organizational levels of the company (strategic, tactical and operational). It is based on the continuous improvement cycle (PDCA) and Security Design philosophy proposed by Siemens. The specific practices, inputs, outputs, actions, roles, KPIs and techniques applicable to each activity are detailed. These specific practices can be applied or not, at the discretion of the project manager and according to the state of the company and project that the company wants to develop, establishing different patterns of process. Two SMEs have been chosen to validate the frame work. The first of the services sector and the second in the ICT sector. The process model has been applied on the same pattern project that responds to needs common to both companies. The process pattern has been valued at the selected projects in both companies before and after application. The results of the study, after application in both companies have enabled pattern validation process, improving project management for the safe development of IT in SMEs.

Compatibilidad de Eretmocerus mundus Mercet (Hymenoptera: Aphelinidae) y Amblyseius swirskii Athias-Henriot (Acari: Phytoseiidae), importantes enemigos naturales de la mosca blanca Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius) (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) en cultivos hortícolas, con nuevas barreras físicas selectivas y modernos plaguicidas

Los programas de Gestión Integrada de Plagas (GIP) promueven el uso de estrategias de control que sean respetuosas con el medio ambiente, sin embargo el uso de insecticidas en los cultivos hortícolas sigue siendo necesario para el control de determinadas plagas, como es el caso de la mosca blanca Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius). Por ello, el objetivo de esta tesis es el estudio de la integración de las tres estrategias de control más empleadas hoy en día para el control de plagas: el control biológico, el físico y el químico. Una primera parte de este trabajo ha consistido en el estudio de los efectos letales y subletales de once insecticidas, aplicados a la dosis máxima de campo, sobre los enemigos naturales Eretmocerus mundus Mercet y Amblyseius swirskii Athias-Henriot, mediante ensayos de laboratorio y persistencia (laboratorio extendido). Para la evaluación de la toxicidad de los insecticidas sobre los estados de vida más protegidos de estos enemigos naturales, se trataron bajo la Torre de Potter las pupas de E. mundus y los huevos de A. swirskii. Además, se llevaron a cabo ensayos de contacto residual para determinar los efectos letales y subletales de estos insecticidas sobre el estado adulto de ambas especies de enemigos naturales. Para ello, los pesticidas se aplicaron sobre placas de cristal (laboratorio) o sobre plantas (laboratorio extendido: persistencia). Los resultados mostraron que los insecticidas flonicamida, flubendiamida, metaflumizona, metoxifenocida, spiromesifen y spirotetramat eran compatibles con el estado de pupa de E. mundus (OILB 1: Inocuos). Sin embargo, abamectina, deltametrina y emamectina fueron categorizadas como ligeramente tóxicas (OILB 2) al causar efectos deletéreos. Los dos pesticidas más tóxicos fueron spinosad y sulfoxaflor, los cuales redujeron significativamente la emergencia de las pupas tratadas (OILB 4: Tóxicos). Flonicamida, flubendiamida, metoxifenocida y spiromesifen fueron compatibles con el estado adulto de E. mundus (OILB 1: Inocuos). Abamectina, deltametrina, emamectina, metaflumizona y spiromesifen pueden ser recomendados para su uso en programas de GIP, si se usan los plazos de seguridad apropiados, de acuerdo con la persistencia de cada uno de estos insecticidas, antes de la liberación del enemigo natural. Al contrario, spinosad y sulfoxaflor no resultaron ser compatibles (OILB D: Persistentes), aunque la realización de ensayos adicionales es necesaria para ver los efectos de los mismos en campo. Todos los insecticidas estudiados, excepto el spirotetramat (OILB 2: Ligeramente tóxico), fueron selectivos para el estado de huevo de A. swirskii (OILB 1: Inocuos). Flonicamida, flubendiamida, metaflumizona, metoxifenocida, spiromesifen, spirotetramat y sulfoxaflor, fueron compatibles con el estado adulto de A. swirskii (OILB 1: Inocuos). Abamectina, deltametrina, emamectina y spinosad pueden ser recomendados para su uso en programas de GIP, si se usan los plazos de seguridad apropiados, de acuerdo con la persistencia de cada uno de estos insecticidas, antes de la liberación del enemigo natural. Entre las nuevas estrategias de la GIP, los plásticos y mallas fotoselectivas han demostrado ser una herramienta importante para el control de plagas y enfermedades en cultivos hortícolas protegidos. Por ello, en una segunda parte de este trabajo, se estudiaron tanto los efectos directos, como la combinación de efectos directos y mediados por planta y plaga de ambientes pobres en luz UV, en presencia o ausencia del Virus del rizado amarillo del tomate (TYLCV), sobre E. mundus. En primer lugar, se realizó un ensayo al aire libre para la evaluación de la capacidad de vuelo de E. mundus en cajas tipo túnel (1 x 0,6 x 0,6 m) cubiertas con distintas barreras absorbentes de luz UV. Se detectó un efecto directo en la capacidad de orientación de E. mundus, debido a que este parasitoide utiliza estímulos visuales para localizar a sus huéspedes, únicamente en las barreras que bloqueaban más del 65% de la luz UV (malla G). En segundo lugar, bajo condiciones de invernadero, se evaluó la combinación de efectos directos y mediados por planta y plaga sobre E. mundus, usando plantas de tomate sanas o infectadas con el TYLCV y cajas (30 x 30 x 60 cm) cubiertas con los distintos plásticos fotoselectivos. En este caso, no se observó ningún efecto en la capacidad benéfica del parasitoide cuando este estaba en contacto con plantas de tomate infestadas con ninfas de B. tabaci, lo que demuestra que este insecto usa estímulos táctiles para encontrar a sus huéspedes a cortas distancias. Además, las diferentes condiciones de radiación UV estudiadas tuvieron cierto impacto en la morfología, fisiología y bioquímica de las plantas de tomate, infestadas o no con el virus de la cuchara, detectándose pequeñas alteraciones en alguno de los parámetros estudiados, como el peso fresco y seco, el contenido en H y el espesor de las cutículas y de las paredes celulares de la epidermis foliar. Por último, no se observaron efectos de la radiación UV mediados por planta, ni en B. tabaci ni en su parasitoide, E. mundus. En una tercera parte, se evaluaron los efectos de una malla tratada con bifentrin sobre ambos enemigos naturales, en ensayos de laboratorio, semicampo y campo. Las mallas tratadas fueron diseñadas originariamente para el control de mosquitos vectores de la malaria, y actualmente se está trabajando para su uso en agricultura, como una nueva estrategia de control de plagas. En ensayos de laboratorio, cuando adultos de E. mundus y A. swirskii se expusieron por contacto durante 72 horas con la malla tratada (cajas de 6 cm diámetro), se registró una alta mortalidad. Sin embargo, en el ensayo de preferencia, estos enemigos naturales no fueron capaces de detectar la presencia de bifentrin y, en aquellos individuos forzados a atravesar la malla tratada, no se observó mortalidad a corto plazo (72 horas). En estudios de semicampo, llevados a cabo bajo condiciones de invernadero en cajas de 25 x 25 x 60 cm de altura, la capacidad benéfica de E. mundus no se vio afectada. Finalmente, en ensayos de campo llevados a cabo en invernaderos comerciales (4000m2) en Almería, A. swirskii no se vio afectado por la presencia en el cultivo de la malla tratada con bifentrin y los niveles de infestación de B. tabaci y F. occidentalis detectados bajo dicha malla, fueron inferiores a los del control. Por último, se ha evaluado la composición de la microflora bacteriana de tres especies de parasitoides, E. mundus, Eretmocerus eremicus Rose & Zolnerowich y Encarsia formosa Gahan, y la influencia de la misma en su susceptibilidad a insecticidas. Se llevó a cabo una extracción total de ADN de los insectos y la región variable V4 del ARNr se amplificó usando cebadores universales bacterianos. Para identificar las secuencias de los géneros bacterianos presentes en los parasitoides, se realizó una Next Generation sequencing (Illumina sequencing). Una vez identificados los géneros bacterianos, el gen ADNr 16S de las Actinobacterias se amplificó del ADN extraído de los insectos, usando cebadores universales bacterianos y específicos de Actinobacterias, y los productos de la Nested PCR fueron clonados para identificar todas las especies del género Arthrobacter. Tres bacterias (A. aurescens Phillips, A. nicotinovarans Kodama, Yamamoto, Amano and Amichi y A. uratoxydans Stackebrandt, Fowler, Fiedler and Seiler), próximas a las especies de Arthrobacter presentes en los parasitoides, se obtuvieron de la colección bacteriana del BCCMTM/LMG y se midió su actividad esterasa. Finalmente, se realizaron ensayos con antibióticos (tetraciclina) y de contacto residual con insecticidas (abamectina) para determinar la influencia de las especies de Arthrobacter en la susceptibilidad de E. mundus a insecticidas. Los resultados muestran que este género bacteriano puede afectar a la toxicidad de E. mundus a abamectina, mostrando la importancia de la comunidad microbiana en enemigos naturales, factor que debe ser considerado en los estudios de evaluación de los riesgos de los insecticidas. ABSTRACT Integrated Pest Management (IPM) programs promote the use of control strategies more respectful with the environment; however the use of insecticides in vegetable crops is still needed to control certain pests, such as the whitefly Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius). Therefore, the objective of this work is to study the integration of the three most commonly used pest control strategies nowadays: biological, physical and chemical control. Firstly, the lethal and sublethal effects of eleven insecticides, applied at their maximum field recommended concentration, on the parasitic wasp Eretmocerus mundus Mercet and the predator Amblyseius swirskii Athias-Henriot has been assessed in the laboratory and in persistence tests (extended laboratory). To test the effects of pesticides on the most protected life stage of these natural enemies, E. mundus pupae and A. swirskii eggs were sprayed under a Potter precision spray tower. Laboratory contact tests were therefore conducted to determine the lethal and sublethal effects of these pesticides on the adult stage of these natural enemies. In the residual contact tests the pesticides were applied on glass plates (laboratory) or plants (extended laboratory: persistence). The study showed that the insecticides flonicamid, flubendiamide, metaflumizone, methoxyfenozide, spiromesifen and spirotetramat were selective for E. mundus pupae (IOBC 1: Harmless). Nevertheless, abamectin, deltamethrin and emamectin were categorized as slightly harmful (IOBC 2) due to the deleterious effects caused. The two most harmful pesticides were spinosad and sulfoxaflor, which significantly reduced the adult emergence from treated pupae (IOBC 4: Harmful). Flonicamid, flubendiamide, methoxyfenozide and spiromesifen were compatible with E. mundus adults (IOBC 1: Harmless). Base on the duration of the harmful activity, abamectin, deltamethrin, emamectin, metaflumizone and spirotetramat could be recommended for use in IPM programs if appropriate safety deadlines are used before the natural enemy release. On the contrary, spinosad and sulfoxaflor were not compatible (IOBC D: persistent), although additional studies are required to determine their effects under field conditions. All the pesticides tested, except spirotetramat (IOBC 2: Slightly harmful), were selective for A. swirskii eggs (IOBC 1: Harmless). Flonicamid, flubendiamide, metaflumizone, methoxyfenozide, spiromesifen, spirotetramat and sulfoxaflor were compatible with A. swirskii adults (IOBC 1: Harmless). However, abamectin, deltamethrin, emamectin and spinosad could be recommended for use in IPM programs if appropriate safety deadlines are used before the natural enemy release. Among new IPM strategies, UV-absorbing photoselective plastic films and nets have been shown to be an important tool for the control of pests and diseases in horticultural protected crops. Because of that, we secondly studied the plant and pest insect-mediated and/or the direct effects on E. mundus under different UV radiation conditions, in presence or absence of the Tomato Yellow Leaf Curl Virus (TYLCV). In the first experiment, performed outdoors, the flight activity of E. mundus was studied in one-chamber tunnels (1 x 0.6 x 0.6 m) covered with different photoselective barriers. Because E. mundus uses visual cues for host location at a long distance, a direct effect on its host location ability was detected, but only in the UV-absorbing barriers blocking more than 65% of the UV light (G net). In a second experiment, the direct and plant and pest insect-mediated effects of different UV radiation conditions on E. mundus were studied, inside cages (30 x 30 x 60 cm) covered with the different UVplastic films and under greenhouse conditions, using healthy or TYLCV-virus infected tomato plants. In this case, not any effect on the beneficial capacity of this parasitoid was detected, proving that he uses tactile cues at a short distance of the host. Moreover, the different UV radiation conditions studied had a certain direct impact in the morphology, physiology and biochemistry of tomato plants infested or not with the TYLCV, and small alterations in some parameters such as fresh and dry weight, H percentage and cuticle and cell wall thickness of epidermal cells of the leaves, were detected. Finally, none plant-mediated UV effects neither in the whitefly B. tabaci nor in their parasitic wasp were found. Thirdly, the effects of a bifenthrin treated net were evaluated in different laboratory, semi-field and field experiments on the natural enemies studied. Treated nets were developed long time ago aiming at the control of the mosquitoes vectors of malaria, and nowadays, there is a great interest on assessing the possibility of their use in agriculture. In laboratory assays, a high mortality was recorded when E. mundus and A. swirskii adults were exposed by contact to the bifenthrin treated net for 72 hours in small cages (12 cm diameter). However, these natural enemies were not able to detect the presence of bifenthrin in a dual-choice test and no short-term mortality (72 hours) was recorded in those individuals that went through the treated net. In semi-field assays, performed under greenhouse conditions with cages of 25 x 25 x 60 cm high, the beneficial capacity of E. mundus was not affected. Finally, in field assays carried out in commercial multispan greenhouses (4000 m2) in Almería, A. swirskii was not affected by the presence of the bifenthrin treated net in the crop and the B. tabaci and F. occidentalis infestation levels were significantly lower than in the control. Finally, the composition of the microflora present in three species of parasitoids, E. mundus, Eretmocerus eremicus Rose & Zolnerowich and Encarsia formosa Gahan, and its influence in their susceptibility to insecticides, have been assessed. A total DNA extraction was performed on insects and universal bacterial primers were used to amplify the variable V4 region of the rRNA. A Next Generation sequencing (Illumina sequencing) was performed to identify the sequences of the bacterial genera present in the parasitic wasps. Once, the bacterial genera were identified, 16S rDNA gene of Actinobacteria were amplified from insects DNA extracts using the universal bacterial and actinobacterial primers, and the nested PCR products, were cloned to identify the Arthrobacter species. Three bacteria (A. aurescens Phillips, A. nicotinovarans Kodama, Yamamoto, Amano and Amichi and A. uratoxydans Stackebrandt, Fowler, Fiedler and Seiler), having the closest match with the Arthrobacter species present in the parasitic wasps, were obtained from the BCCMTM/LMG bacteria collection and its esterase activity was measured. Finally, antibiotic and residual contact tests were done to determine the influence of Arthrobacter species in the susceptibility of E. mundus to pesticides (abamectin). The results suggest that this bacterial genus can affect the toxicity of E. mundus to abamectin, which in turn supports the importance of the microbial community in natural enemies that it should be considered as a factor in risk assessment tests of pesticides.

Noxious Weed Management: A Review of Herbicide Use at Colorado State Parks

Weed control in recreation areas is a complex public land management issue. Colorado State Parks are managed for both recreation and conservation, which often conflict. Noxious weeds affect both recreation and conservation efforts, and Parks often use herbicides to control these weeds. While herbicides are effective, they can be harmful to the environment and human health. Herbicide use at State Parks was reviewed to determine if chemical control is effective, safe, and efficient. The results revealed that many Parks are not using effective herbicides to treat noxious weeds and that some weed management plans lack pertinent information on chemical control. The results and recommendations provided can be used to improve the success of noxious weed control and create healthier Parks.

Risk assessment in fixed guideway transit system construction. Final report.

Federal Transit Administration, Washington, D.C.

Intra-specific variation for host plant use in Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae): Implications for management

The polyphagous moth Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner) is one of the world's most important agricultural pests. A number of existing approaches and future designs for management of H. armigera rely on the assumption that moths do not exhibit either genetically and/or non-genetically based variation for host plant utilization. We review recent empirical evidence demonstrating that both these forms of variation influence host plant use in this moth. The significance of this variation in H. armigera in relation to current and future pest management strategies is examined. We provide recommendations on future research needs and directions for sustainable management of H. armigera, under a framework that includes consideration of intra.-specific variation for host use relevant in this and other similar pest species. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Elicitors of induced disease resistance in postharvest horticultural crops: a brief review

Increasing loss of conventional fungicides due to pathogen resistance and general unacceptability in terms of public and environmental risk have favoured the introduction of integrated pest management (IPM) programmes. Induction of natural disease resistance (NDR) in harvested horticultural crops using physical, biological and/or chemical elicitors has received increasing attention over recent years, it being considered a preferred strategy for disease management. This article reviews the enhancement of constitutive and inducible antifungal compounds and suppression of postharvest diseases through using elicitors. The effect of timing of pre- and/or postharvest elicitor treatment and environment on the degree of elicitation and the potential for inducing local acquired resistance, systemic acquired resistance and/or induced systemic resistance to reduce postharvest disease is discussed. The review highlights that more applied and basic research is required to understand the role that induced NDR can play in achieving practical suppression of postharvest diseases as part of an IPM approach. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Experimental analysis of the influence of pest management practice on the efficacy of an endemic arthropod natural enemy complex of the diamondback moth.

Maximizing the contribution of endemic natural enemies to integrated pest management (IPM) programs requires a detailed knowledge of their interactions with the target pest. This experimental field study evaluated the impact of the endemic natural enemy complex of Plutella xylostella (L.) (Lepidoptera: Yponomeutidae) on pest populations in commercial cabbage crops in southeastern Queensland, Australia. Management data were used to score pest management practices at experimental sites on independent Brassica farms practicing a range of pest management strategies, and mechanical methods of natural enemy exclusion were used to assess the impact of natural enemies on introduced cohorts of P. xylostella at each site. Natural enemy impact was greatest at sites adopting IPM and least at sites practicing conventional pest management strategies. At IPM sites, the contribution of natural enemies to P. xylostella mortality permitted the cultivation of marketable crops with no yield loss but with a substantial reduction in insecticide inputs. Three species of larval parasitoids (Diadegma semiclausum Hellen [Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae], Apanteles ippeus Nixon [Hymenoptera: Braconidae], and Oomyzus sokolowskii Kurdjumov [Hymenoptera: Eulophidae]) and one species of pupal parasitoid Diadromus collaris Gravenhorst (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae) attacked immature P. xylostella. The most abundant groups of predatory arthropods caught in pitfall traps were Araneae (Lycosidae) > Coleoptera (Carabidae, Coccinelidae, Staphylinidae) > Neuroptera (Chrysopidae) > Formicidae, whereas on crop foliage Araneae (Clubionidae, Oxyopidae) > Coleoptera (Coccinelidae) > Neuroptera (Chrysopidae) were most common. The abundance and diversity of natural enemies was greatest at sites that adopted IPM, correlating greater P. xylostella mortality at these sites. The efficacy of the natural enemy complex to pest mortality under different pest management regimes and appropriate strategies to optimize this important natural resource are discussed.

Precautionary principles: a jurisdiction-free framework for decision-making under risk

Fundamental principles of precaution are legal maxims that ask for preventive actions, perhaps as contingent interim measures while relevant information about causality and harm remains unavailable, to minimize the societal impact of potentially severe or irreversible outcomes. Such principles do not explain how to make choices or how to identify what is protective when incomplete and inconsistent scientific evidence of causation characterizes the potential hazards. Rather, they entrust lower jurisdictions, such as agencies or authorities, to make current decisions while recognizing that future information can contradict the scientific basis that supported the initial decision. After reviewing and synthesizing national and international legal aspects of precautionary principles, this paper addresses the key question: How can society manage potentially severe, irreversible or serious environmental outcomes when variability, uncertainty, and limited causal knowledge characterize their decision-making? A decision-analytic solution is outlined that focuses on risky decisions and accounts for prior states of information and scientific beliefs that can be updated as subsequent information becomes available. As a practical and established approach to causal reasoning and decision-making under risk, inherent to precautionary decision-making, these (Bayesian) methods help decision-makers and stakeholders because they formally account for probabilistic outcomes, new information, and are consistent and replicable. Rational choice of an action from among various alternatives-defined as a choice that makes preferred consequences more likely-requires accounting for costs, benefits and the change in risks associated with each candidate action. Decisions under any form of the precautionary principle reviewed must account for the contingent nature of scientific information, creating a link to the decision-analytic principle of expected value of information (VOI), to show the relevance of new information, relative to the initial ( and smaller) set of data on which the decision was based. We exemplify this seemingly simple situation using risk management of BSE. As an integral aspect of causal analysis under risk, the methods developed in this paper permit the addition of non-linear, hormetic dose-response models to the current set of regulatory defaults such as the linear, non-threshold models. This increase in the number of defaults is an important improvement because most of the variants of the precautionary principle require cost-benefit balancing. Specifically, increasing the set of causal defaults accounts for beneficial effects at very low doses. We also show and conclude that quantitative risk assessment dominates qualitative risk assessment, supporting the extension of the set of default causal models.

Management motivation for using financial derivatives in Australia

This study takes a direct approach to determine management motivation for the use of financial derivatives. We survey a sample of Australian firms on attitudes to derivative use and financial risk management. Management views are sought on the importance of a series of theoretical reasons for using derivatives. Generally, we find that managers are focused on the broad reduction of risk and volatility of cash flows and earnings in using derivatives. Specific issues such as reducing bankruptcy costs, debt levels and taxation are not considered as important. A further interesting result from this research is that even though firms may use derivatives they may not necessarily hedge all of their annual exposures across different financial risks. This helps explain the inconsistency of results in many empirical studies on the determinants of derivative use.

Using extreme value theory to measure value-at-risk for daily electricity spot prices

The recent deregulation in electricity markets worldwide has heightened the importance of risk management in energy markets. Assessing Value-at-Risk (VaR) in electricity markets is arguably more difficult than in traditional financial markets because the distinctive features of the former result in a highly unusual distribution of returns-electricity returns are highly volatile, display seasonalities in both their mean and volatility, exhibit leverage effects and clustering in volatility, and feature extreme levels of skewness and kurtosis. With electricity applications in mind, this paper proposes a model that accommodates autoregression and weekly seasonals in both the conditional mean and conditional volatility of returns, as well as leverage effects via an EGARCH specification. In addition, extreme value theory (EVT) is adopted to explicitly model the tails of the return distribution. Compared to a number of other parametric models and simple historical simulation based approaches, the proposed EVT-based model performs well in forecasting out-of-sample VaR. In addition, statistical tests show that the proposed model provides appropriate interval coverage in both unconditional and, more importantly, conditional contexts. Overall, the results are encouraging in suggesting that the proposed EVT-based model is a useful technique in forecasting VaR in electricity markets. (c) 2005 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Melanotaenia duboulayi (Atheriniformes : Melanotaeniidae), Hypseleotris galii (Perciformes : Eleotridae), and larvicide Vectolex (R) WG (Bacillus sphaericus) for integrated control of Culex annulirostris

Australian freshwater fish species Melanotaenia duboulayi and Hypseleotris galii were selected for a small plot field evaluation of an integrated pest management strategy using native fish and VectoLex® WG (Bacillus sphaericus) for the control of Culex annulirostris Skuse, the principal freshwater vector of arbovirus Ross River virus in Australia. When tested alone, the level of control afforded by M. duboulayi and H. galii was highly dependent on the prerelease density of mosquito larvae; and even when stocking rates as high as 10 g per pond (>30 kg/ha) were used, larval abundance was too high to attain adequate control from fish alone. In contrast, treatment with VectoLex WG at 500 g/ha resulted in 100% mortality of Cx. annulirostris immatures, but no residual activity was evident. The delayed reduction of Cx. annulirostris immatures in ponds stocked with fish alone, and the recolonization by Cx. annulirostris in ponds after treatment with B. sphaericus, did not occur when both treatments were combined.

Science-policy in environmental and health risk assessment: if we cannot do without, can we do better?

How can empirical evidence of adverse effects from exposure to noxious agents, which is often incomplete and uncertain, be used most appropriately to protect human health? We examine several important questions on the best uses of empirical evidence in regulatory risk management decision-making raised by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s science-policy concerning uncertainty and variability in human health risk assessment. In our view, the US EPA (and other agencies that have adopted similar views of risk management) can often improve decision-making by decreasing reliance on default values and assumptions, particularly when causation is uncertain. This can be achieved by more fully exploiting decision-theoretic methods and criteria that explicitly account for uncertain, possibly conflicting scientific beliefs and that can be fully studied by advocates and adversaries of a policy choice, in administrative decision-making involving risk assessment. The substitution of decision-theoretic frameworks for default assumption-driven policies also allows stakeholder attitudes toward risk to be incorporated into policy debates, so that the public and risk managers can more explicitly identify the roles of risk-aversion or other attitudes toward risk and uncertainty in policy recommendations. Decision theory provides a sound scientific way explicitly to account for new knowledge and its effects on eventual policy choices. Although these improvements can complicate regulatory analyses, simplifying default assumptions can create substantial costs to society and can prematurely cut off consideration of new scientific insights (e.g., possible beneficial health effects from exposure to sufficiently low 'hormetic' doses of some agents). In many cases, the administrative burden of applying decision-analytic methods is likely to be more than offset by improved effectiveness of regulations in achieving desired goals. Because many foreign jurisdictions adopt US EPA reasoning and methods of risk analysis, it may be especially valuable to incorporate decision-theoretic principles that transcend local differences among jurisdictions.

The risky business of doctoral management

Universities are under no less pressure to adopt risk management strategies than other public and private organisations. The risk management of doctoral education is a particularly important issue given that a doctorate is the highest academic qualification a university offers and stakes are high in terms of assuring its quality. However, intense risk management can interfere with the intellectual and pedagogical work which are essentially part of doctoral education. This paper seeks to understand how the culture of risk meets the culture of doctoral education and with what effect. The authors draw on sociological understandings of risk in the work of Anthony Giddens (2002) and Ulrich Beck (1992), the anthropological focus on liminality in the work of Mary Douglas (1990), and the psychological theorising of human error in the work of James Reason (1990). The paper concludes that risk consciousness brings its own risks—in particular, the potential transformation of a culture based on intellect into a culture based on compliance.