Interindustrial Structure in the Asia-Pacific Region: Growth and Integration, by Using 2000 AIO Table

Over the past 20 years Asian countries have achieved a certain degree of economic growth and at the same time deepened spatial interdependence. In January 2006, IDE completed the 2000 Asian International Input-Output Table, which covers eight major East Asian countries/regions as well as Japan and the United States. Given the dynamic changes in the economies of East Asia, this paper attempts to summarize the characteristics and their patterns of change in industrial structures and trade structures of the countries/regions in the Asia-Pacific region from the three viewpoints of time, space, and industry, by using the AIO table for 1985, 1990, 1995, and 2000.

Rules of Origin and Local Content in East Asia

Rules of Origin (RoO) are an integral part of all trade rules. In order to be eligible for Common Effective Preferential Tariffs (CEPT) under AFTA and similar arrangements under the ASEAN-China FTA, a product must satisfy the conditions relative to local content. The paper tries to calculate local content as well as cumulative local content in East Asian economies, with use of the Asian International Input-Output Tables; it also investigates factors of change in local content by applying decomposition analysis. The paper finds that the cumulation rule increased local content of the electronics industry more significantly than local content of the automotive industry, and the contribution of the cumulation rule increased in the period 1990-2000, due to rising dependency on neighboring ASEAN countries and China.

Industrial Networks between China and the Countries of the Asia-Pacific Region

This paper investigates the changes in the structures of industrial networks that have occurred in the Asia-Pacific region in line with the rapid growth of the Chinese economy. Analyses using international input-output tables revealed that during the 1990s, there was a significant increase in the dependence of Asian countries’ manufacturing industries, such as textiles and electronics, on China’s industries, though industries in Japan and the United States remain important as the main suppliers of industries in Asian countries.

Trade Coefficients and the Role of Elasticity in a Spatial CGE Model Based on the Armington Assumption

The Armington Assumption in the context of multi-regional CGE models is commonly interpreted as follows: Same commodities with different origins are imperfect substitutes for each other. In this paper, a static spatial CGE model that is compatible with this assumption and explicitly considers the transport sector and regional price differentials is formulated. Trade coefficients, which are derived endogenously from the optimization behaviors of firms and households, are shown to take the form of a potential function. To investigate how the elasticity of substitutions affects equilibrium solutions, a simpler version of the model that incorporates three regions and two sectors (besides the transport sector) is introduced. Results indicate: (1) if commodities produced in different regions are perfect substitutes, regional economies will be either autarkic or completely symmetric and (2) if they are imperfect substitutes, the impact of elasticity on the price equilibrium system as well as trade coefficients will be nonlinear and sometimes very sensitive.

Cost Reduction Effects of "pseudo FTAs" in Asia -Application of a price model based on a multilateral I/O table-

This paper examines the repercussion effects on the production cost of industries in Asian countries when some countries eliminate tariffs and import commodity taxes on all imports. This kind of analysis is related in some sense to that measuring the effects of FTAs on economies, and thus may be considered as an analysis of “pseudo FTAs.” Examining a number of combinations of “pseudo FTAs” between China, Japan, and ASEAN, it is found that the case of China plus Japan plus ASEAN is the most effective “pseudo FTA” of the combinations in terms of production cost reduction. The method is a form of price model based on the Asian International Input-Output Table. Almost no studies on price models related to multilateral I/O tables have been implemented thus far.

Application of factor decomposition techniques to vertical specialisation measurements

The increasing importance of vertical specialisation (VS) trade has been a notable feature of rapid economic globalisation and regional integration. In an attempt to understand countries’ depth of participation in global production chains, many Input-Output based VS indicators have been developed. However, most of them focus on showing the overall magnitude of a country’s VS trade, rather than explaining the roles that specific sectors or products play in VS trade and what factors make the VS change over time. Changes in vertical specialisation indicators are, in fact, determined by mixed and complex factors such as import substitution ratios, types of exported goods and domestic production networks. In this paper, decomposition techniques are applied to VS measurement based on the OECD Input-Output database. The decomposition results not only help us understand the structure of VS at detailed sector and product levels, but also show us the contributions of trade dependency, industrial structures of foreign trade and domestic production system to a country’s vertical specialisation trade.

Geographical simulation analysis for logistics enhancement in Asia

This paper presents a simulation of the reduction of several components in trade cost for Asia and examines its impact on the economy. Our simulation model based on the new economic geography embraces seven sectors, including manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, and 1,715 regions in 18 countries/economies in Asia, in addition to the two economies of the US and the European Union. The geographical course of transactions among regions is modeled as determined based on firms’ modal choice. The model also includes estimates of some border cost measures such as tariff rates, non-tariff barriers, other border clearance costs, transshipment costs and so on. Our simulation analysis for Asia includes several scenarios involving the improvement/development of routes and the reduction of the above-mentioned border cost. We have shown that the contribution of physical and non-physical infrastructure improvements conducted together is larger than the sum of the contribution by each when conducted independently.

How are global value chains fragmented and extended in China's domestic production networks?

Global value chains are supported not only directly by domestic regions that export goods and services to the world market, but also indirectly by other domestic regions that provide parts, components, and intermediate services to final exporting regions. In order to better understand the nature of a country’s position and degree of participation in global value chains, we need to more fully examine the role of individual domestic regions. Understanding the domestic components of global supply chains is especially important for large developing countries like China and India, where there may be large variations in economic scale and development between domestic regions. This paper proposes a new framework for measuring domestic linkages to global value chains. This framework measures domestic linkages by endogenously embedding a country’s domestic interregional input-output (IO) table in an international IO model. Using this framework, we can more clearly describe how global production is fragmented and extended through linkages across a country’s domestic regions. This framework will also enable us to estimate how value added is created and distributed in both domestic and international segments of global value chains. For examining the validity and usefulness of this new approach, some numerical results are presented and discussed based on the 2007 Chinese interregional IO table, China customs statistics at the provincial level, and World Input-Output Tables (WIOTs).

Spatial price equilibrium and the transport sector : a trade-consistent SCGE model

This paper presents a framework for an SCGE model that is compatible with the Armington assumption and explicitly considers transport activities. In the model, the trade coefficient takes the form of a potential function,and the equilibrium market price becomes similar to the price index of varietal goods in the context of new economic geography (NEG). The features of the model are investigated by using the minimal setting, which comprises two non-transport sectors and three regions. Because transport costs are given exogenously to facilitate study of their impacts, commodity prices are also determined relative to them. The model can be described as a system of homogeneous equations, where an output in one region can arbitrarily be determined similarly as a price in the Walrasian equilibrium. The model closure is sensitive to formulation consistency so that homogeneity of the system would be lost by use of an alternative form of trade coefficients.

Value added trade and structure of high-technology exports in China

This study focuses on the technological intensity of China's exports. It first introduces the method of decomposing gross exports by using the Asian international input–output tables. The empirical results indicate that the technological intensity of Chinese exports has been significantly overestimated due to its high dependency on import content, especially in high-technology exports, an area highly dominated by the electronic and electrical equipment sector. Furthermore, a significant portion of value added embodied in China's high-technology exports comes from services and high-technology manufacturers in neighboring economies, such as Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.

Industrial deepening in East Asia

Structural transformations are an indispensable element of sustained economic growth. Within the context of East Asia, this study focuses on industrial deepening, which refers to the formation of local linkages and the creation of a robust local supplier base. To investigate the progress of industrial deepening, this study introduces two kinds of domestic procurement measures in addition to the previously developed local content measures. Specifically, two kinds of vertical specialization measures are used to demonstrate the degree to which respective East Asian economies are specialized within their vertical production networks. The results clearly show that the advancement of production networks is likely to reduce domestic procurement ratios, even if local supplier bases are strengthened in the respective countries. Moreover, the trend of domestic procurement ratios differs depending on the characteristics of particular industries and the industrial policies adopted by individual countries.

Production sharing, demand spillovers and CO2 emissions : the case of Chinese regions in GVCs

This study adopts the perspective of demand spillovers to provide new insights regarding Chinese domestic-regions' production position in global value chains and their associated CO2 emissions. To this end, we constructed a new type of World Input-Output Database in which China's domestic interregional input-output table for 2007 is endogenously embedded. Then, the pattern of China's regional demand spillovers across both domestic regions and countries are revealed by employing this new database. These results were further connected to endowments theory, which help to make sense of the empirical results. It is found that China's regions locate relatively upstream in GVCs, and had CO2 emissions in net exports, which were entirely predicted by the environmental extended HOV model. Our study points to micro policy instruments to combat climate change, for example, the tax reform for energy inputs that helps to change the production pattern thus has impact on trade pattern and so forth.

Production fragmentation, upstreamness, and value-added : evidence from factory Asia 1990-2005

We exploit the recent release of the 2005 Asian Input-Output Matrix to dress a picture of the geographic fragmentation of value added in Factory Asia from 1990 to 2005. We document 3 stylized facts. The first is that the average share of foreign value added embedded in production rose by about 7 percentage points between 1990 and 2005, from 9% to 16%. The second is that, contrary to popular belief, China's production embeds a smaller share of foreign value added than other Factory Asia countries'. Between 1990 and 2005 among Factory Asia countries China grew most after Japan as a source of value added to other countries' production. Third, country-industries at the upstream and downstream extremities of the supply chain embed a smaller share of foreign value added than those with intermediate levels of upstreamness.