Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change

Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 degrees C above present (approximately 2.7 degrees C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (< 500 m(3) per capita per year) by another 40% (according to some models, more than 100%) compared with the effect of population growth alone. For some indicators of moderate impacts, the steepest increase is seen between the present day and 2 degrees C, whereas indicators of very severe impacts increase unabated beyond 2 degrees C. At the same time, the study highlights large uncertainties associated with these estimates, with both global climate models and GHMs contributing to the spread. GHM uncertainty is particularly dominant in many regions affected by declining water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development.

Effects of water availability on free amino acids, sugars, and acrylamide-forming potential in potato

Irrigation is used frequently in potato cultivation to maximize yield, but water availability may also affect the composition of the crop, with implications for processing properties and food safety. Five varieties of potatoes, including drought-tolerant and -sensitive types, which had been grown with and without irrigation, were analyzed to show the effect of water supply on concentrations of free asparagine, other free amino acids, and sugars and on the acrylamide-forming potential of the tubers. Two varieties were also analyzed under more severe drought stress in a glasshouse. Water availability had profound effects on tuber free amino acid and sugar concentrations, and it was concluded that potato farmers should irrigate only if necessary to maintain the health and yield of the crop, because irrigation may increase the acrylamide-forming potential of potatoes. Even mild drought stress caused significant changes in composition, but these differed from those caused by more extreme drought stress. Free proline concentration, for example, increased in the field-grown potatoes of one variety from 7.02 mmol/kg with irrigation to 104.58 mmol/kg without irrigation, whereas free asparagine concentration was not affected significantly in the field but almost doubled from 132.03 to 242.26 mmol/kg in response to more severe drought stress in the glasshouse. Furthermore, the different genotypes were affected in dissimilar fashion by the same treatment, indicating that there is no single, unifying potato tuber drought stress response.

Evaluation of water properties in HEA–HEMA hydrogels swollen in aqueous-PEG solutions using thermoanalytical techniques

Hydrogels are polymeric materials used in many pharmaceutical and biomedical applications due to their ability to form 3D hydrophilic polymeric networks, which can absorb large amounts of water. In the present work, polyethylene glycols (PEG) were introduced into the hydrogel liquid phase in order to improve the mechanical properties of hydrogels composed of 2-hydroxyethylacrylate and 2-hydroxyethylmethacrylate (HEA–HEMA) synthesized with different co-monomer compositions and equilibrated in water or in 20 % water–PEG 400 and 600 solutions. The thermoanalytical techniques [differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and thermogravimetry (TG)] were used to evaluate the amount and properties of free and bound water in HEA–HEMA hydrogels. The internal structure and the mechanical properties of hydrogels were studied using scanning electron microscopy and friability assay. TG “loss-on-drying” experiments were applied to study the water-retention properties of hydrogels, whereas the combination of TG and DSC allowed estimating the total amount of freezable and non-freezing water in hydrogels. The results show that the addition of viscous co-solvent (PEG) to the liquid medium results in significant improvement of the mechanical properties of HEA–HEMA hydrogels and also slightly retards the water loss from the hydrogels. A redistribution of free and bound water in the hydrogels equilibrated in mixed solutions containing 20 vol% of PEGs takes place.

A tillering inhibition gene influences root-shoot carbon partitioning and pattern of water use to improve wheat productivity in rainfed environments

Genetic modification of shoot and root morphology has potential to improve water and nutrient 19 uptake of wheat crops in rainfed environments. Near-isogenic lines (NILs) varying for a tillering 20 inhibition (tin) gene and representing multiple genetic backgrounds were investigated in contrasting 21 controlled environments for shoot and root growth. Leaf area, shoot and root biomass were similar 22 until tillering whereupon reduced tillering in tin-containing NILs produced reductions of up to 60% in 23 total leaf area and biomass, and increases in total root length of up to 120% and root biomass to 24 145%. Together, root-to-shoot ratio increased two-fold with the tin gene. The influence of tin on shoot 25 and root growth was greatest in the cv. Banks genetic background, particularly in the biculm-selected 26 NIL, and was typically strongest in cooler environments. A separate de-tillering study confirmed 27 greater root-to-shoot ratios with regular tiller removal in non-tin containing genotypes. In validating 28 these observations in a rainfed field study, the tin allele had a negligible effect on seedling growth but 29 was associated with significantly (P<0.05) reduced tiller number (-37%), leaf area index (-26%) and 30 spike number (-35%) to reduce plant biomass (-19%) at anthesis. Root biomass, root-to-shoot ratio at 31 early stem elongation and root depth at maturity were increased in tin-containing NILs. Soil water use 32 was slowed in tin-containing NILs resulting in greater water availability, greater stomatal 33 conductance, cooler canopy temperatures and maintenance of green leaf area during grain-filling. 34 Together these effects contributed to increases in harvest index and grain yield. In both the controlled 35 and field environments, the tin gene was commonly associated with increased root length and biomass 36 but the significant influence of genetic background and environment suggests careful assessment of 37 tin-containing progeny in selection for genotypic increases in root growth.

Climatic risks and impacts in South Asia: extremes of water scarcity and excess

This paper reviews the current knowledge of climatic risks and impacts in South Asia associated with anthropogenic warming levels of 1.5°C to 4°C above pre-industrial values in the 21st century. It is based on the World Bank Report “Turn Down the Heat, Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts and the Case for Resilience” (2013). Many of the climate change impacts in the region, which appear quite severe even with relatively modest warming of 1.5–2°C, pose significant hazards to development. For example, increased monsoon variability and loss or glacial meltwater will likely confront populations with ongoing and multiple challenges. The result is a significant risk to stable and reliable water resources for the region, with increases in peak flows potentially causing floods and dry season flow reductions threatening agriculture. Irrespective of the anticipated economic development and growth, climate projections indicate that large parts of South Asia’s growing population and especially the poor are likely to remain highly vulnerable to climate change.

The risk of water stress

Water resources are under stress in many regions due to increasing demands and, in places, falling quality. Climate change has the potential to change the risks of water stress.1 The focus in this section is on strategic definitions of water stress, which are based on generalized indicators of the amount of water that is available and the demands on that resource. Operational definitions, on the other hand, are typically based on the reliability of the supply of appropriate quality water and are strongly determined by local conditions.

Influence of water flow rate on shear bond strength of resin composite to Er : YAG cavity preparation

Purpose: To evaluate in vitro the influence of water flow rate on shear bond strength of a resin composite to enamel and dentin after Er:YAG cavity preparation. Methods: Ten bovine incisors were selected and roots removed. Crowns were sectioned in four pieces, resulting in 40 samples that were individually embedded in polyester resin (n=10), and ground to plane the enamel and expose the dentin. The bonding site was delimited and samples were randomly assigned according to cavity preparation: (1) Er:YAG/1.0 mL/minute; (2) Er:YAG/1.5 mL/minute; (3) Er:YAG/2.0 mL/minute and (4) High speed handpiece/bur (control group). Samples were fixed to a metallic device, where composite resin cylinders were prepared. Subsequently, they were stored for 24 hours and subjected to a shear bond strength test (500N at 0.5 mm/minute). Results: Means (MPa) were: enamel: 1: 12.8; 2: 16.8; 3: 17.5; 4: 36.0 and Dentin: 1: 13.6; 2: 18.7; 3: 12.1; 4: 21.3. Data were submitted to ANOVA and Tukey`s test. Adhesion to enamel was more efficient than for dentin. The cavities prepared with conventional bur (control) presented higher statistically significant bond strength values (P<0.05) than for Er:YAG laser for both enamel and dentin. No significant differences were observed between water flow rates employed during enamel ablation. For dentin, the shear bond strength of 2.0 mL/minute water flow rate was lower than for 1.5 mL/minute and 1.0 mL/minute rates. The Er:YAG laser adversely affected shear bond strength of resin composite to both enamel and dentin, regardless of the water flow rate used.

Downwelling solar irradiance in the biomass burning region of the southern Amazon: Dependence on aerosol intensive optical properties and role of water vapor

The sensitivity of solar irradiance at the surface to the variability of aerosol intensive optical properties is investigated for a site (Alta Floresta) in the southern portion of the Amazon basin using detailed comparisons between measured and modeled irradiances. Apart from aerosol intensive optical properties, specifically single scattering albedo (omega(o lambda)) and asymmetry parameter (g(lambda)), which were assumed constant, all other relevant input to the model were prescribed based on observation. For clean conditions, the differences between observed and modeled irradiances were consistent with instrumental uncertainty. For polluted conditions, the agreement was significantly worse, with a root mean square difference three times larger (23.5 Wm(-2)). Analysis revealed a noteworthy correlation between the irradiance differences (observed minus modeled) and the column water vapor (CWV) for polluted conditions. Positive differences occurred mostly in wet conditions, while the differences became more negative as the atmosphere dried. To explore the hypothesis that the irradiance differences might be linked to the modulation of omega(o lambda) and g(lambda) by humidity, AERONET retrievals of aerosol properties and CWV over the same site were analyzed. The results highlight the potential role of humidity in modifying omega(o lambda) and g(lambda) and suggest that to explain the relationship seen between irradiances differences via aerosols properties the focus has to be on humidity-dependent processes that affect particles chemical composition. Undoubtedly, there is a need to better understand the role of humidity in modifying the properties of smoke aerosols in the southern portion of the Amazon basin.

Patterns of water and heat flux across a biome gradient from tropical forest to savanna in Brazil

We investigated the seasonal patterns of water vapor and sensible heat flux along a tropical biome gradient from forest to savanna. We analyzed data from a network of flux towers in Brazil that were operated within the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA). These tower sites included tropical humid and semideciduous forest, transitional forest, floodplain (with physiognomies of cerrado), and cerrado sensu stricto. The mean annual sensible heat flux at all sites ranged from 20 to 38 Wm(-2), and was generally reduced in the wet season and increased in the late dry season, coincident with seasonal variations of net radiation and soil moisture. The sites were easily divisible into two functional groups based on the seasonality of evaporation: tropical forest and savanna. At sites with an annual precipitation above 1900 mm and a dry season length less than 4 months (Manaus, Santarem and Rondonia), evaporation rates increased in the dry season, coincident with increased radiation. Evaporation rates were as high as 4.0 mm d(-1) in these evergreen or semidecidous forests. In contrast, ecosystems with precipitation less than 1700 mm and a longer dry season (Mato Grosso, Tocantins and Sao Paulo) showed clear evidence of reduced evaporation in the dry season. Evaporation rates were as low as 2.5 mm d(-1) in the transitional forests and 1 mm d(-1) in the cerrado. The controls on evapotranspiration seasonality changed along the biome gradient, with evaporative demand (especially net radiation) playing a more important role in the wetter forests, and soil moisture playing a more important role in the drier savannah sites.

Dielectric Dispersion of Water in the Frequency Range from 10 mHz to 30 MHz

We investigate the dielectric dispersion of water, specially in the low-frequency range, by using the impedance spectroscopy technique. The frequency dependencies of the real R and imaginary Z parts of the impedance Could not be explained by means of the Usual description of the dielectric properties of the water as all insulating liquid containing ions. This is due to the incomplete knowledge of the parameters entering in the fundamental equations describing the evolution of the system, and oil the mechanisms regulating the exchange of charge of the cell with the external circuit. We propose a simple description of our experimental data based on the model of Debye, by invoking a dc conductivity of the cell, related to the nonblocking character of the electrodes. A discussion on the electric Circuits able to simulate the cell under investigation, based oil bulk and Surface elements, is also reported. We find that the simple circuit formed by a series of two parallels of resistance and capacitance is able to reproduce the experimental data concerning the real and imaginary part of the electrical impedance of the cell for frequency larger than 1 Hz. According to this description, one of the parallels takes into account the electrical properties of interface between the electrode and water, and the other of the bulk. For frequency lower than 1 Hz, a good agreement with the experimental data is obtained by simulating the electrical properties of the interface by means of the constant phase element.

On the localization of water-soluble porphyrins in micellar systems evaluated by static and time-resolved frequency-domain fluorescence techniques

Fluorescence quenching of meso-tetrakis-4-sulfonatophenyl (TPPS4) and meso-tetrakis-4-N-methylpyridil (TMPyP) porphyrins is studied in aqueous solution and upon addition of micelles of sodium dodecylsulfate (SDS), cetyltrimethylammonium chloride (CTAC), N-hexadecyl-N,N-dimethyl-3-ammonio-1-propanesulfonate (HPS) and t-octylphenoxypolyethoxyethanol (Triton X-100). Potassium iodide (KI) was used as quencher. Steady-state Stern-Volmer plots were best fitted by a quadratic equation, including dynamic (K-D) and static (K-s) quenching. Ks was significantly smaller than K-D. Frequency-domain fluorescence lifetimes allowed estimating bimolecular quenching constants, k(q). At 25 degrees C, in aqueous solution, TMPyP shows k(q), values a factor of 2-3 higher than the diffusional limit. TPPS4 shows collisional quenching with pH dependent k(q) values. For TMPyP quenching results are consistent with reported binding constants: a significant reduction of quenching takes place for SDS, a moderate reduction is observed for H PS and almost no change is seen for Triton X-100. Similar data were obtained at 50 C. For CTAC-TPPS4 system an enhancement of quenching was observed as compared to pure buffer. This is probably associated to accumulation of iodide at the cationic micellar interface. The attraction between CTAC headgroups and 1(-), and repulsion between SDS and 1(-), enhances and reduces the fluorescence quenching, respectively, of porphyrins located at the micellar interface. The small quenching of TPPS4 in Triton X-100 is consistent with strong binding as reported in the literature. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Study of Water-Gas-Shift Reaction over La((1-y))Sr(y)Ni(x)Co((1-x))O(3) Perovskite as Precursors

The performance of La((1-y))Sr(y)Ni(x)Co((1-x))O(3) perovskites for the water gas shift reaction (WGSR) was investigated. The samples were prepared by the co- precipitation method and were performed by the BET method, XRD, TPR, and XPS. The catalytic tests were performed at 300 and 400 A degrees C and H(2)O(v)/CO = 2.3/1 (molar ratio). The sample with the highest surface area is La(0.70)Sr(0.30)NiO(3). The XRD results showed the formation of perovskite structure for all samples, and the La(0.70)Sr(0.30)NiO(3) sample also presented peaks corresponding to La(2)NiO(4) and NiO, indicating that the solubility limit of Sr in the perovskite lattice was surpassed. The replacement of Co by Ni favored the reduction of the species at lower temperatures, and the sample containing Sr presented the highest amount of reducible species, as identified by TPR results. All samples were active, the Sr containing perovskite appearing the most active due to the highest surface area, presence of the La(2)NiO(4) phase, and higher content of Cu in the surface, as detected by XPS. Among the samples containing Co, the most active one was that with x = 0.70 (60% of CO conversion).

The impact of water concentration on the catalytic oxidation of ethanol on platinum electrode in concentrated phosphoric acid

The electro-oxidation of ethanol on platinum in phosphoric acid opens the door to promote the oxidation reaction at higher temperatures. However, the effect of the presence of water is not well understood. In this work, the electro-oxidation of ethanol on platinum was studied in concentrated phosphoric acid containing different concentrations of water at room temperature. The results show that effect of bulk water on the rate electro-oxidation is highest at 0.60 V and decreases for increasing potentials. This was suggested as due to the increasing formation of oxygenated species on the electrode surface with potential, which in turn is more efficient than the increase of water content in the electrolyte. Altogether, these results were interpreted as an evidence of a Langmuir-Hinshelwood step involving oxygenated species as one of the adsorbed partners. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Gradient-Type Method For Real-Time State Estimation Of Water Distribution Networks

Drinking water distribution networks risk exposure to malicious or accidental contamination. Several levels of responses are conceivable. One of them consists to install a sensor network to monitor the system on real time. Once a contamination has been detected, this is also important to take appropriate counter-measures. In the SMaRT-OnlineWDN project, this relies on modeling to predict both hydraulics and water quality. An online model use makes identification of the contaminant source and simulation of the contaminated area possible. The objective of this paper is to present SMaRT-OnlineWDN experience and research results for hydraulic state estimation with sampling frequency of few minutes. A least squares problem with bound constraints is formulated to adjust demand class coefficient to best fit the observed values at a given time. The criterion is a Huber function to limit the influence of outliers. A Tikhonov regularization is introduced for consideration of prior information on the parameter vector. Then the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is applied that use derivative information for limiting the number of iterations. Confidence intervals for the state prediction are also given. The results are presented and discussed on real networks in France and Germany.

Development Of Water Pollution Early Warning System For Oyster Harvesting Areas

The objective of this study is to develop a Pollution Early Warning System (PEWS) for efficient management of water quality in oyster harvesting areas. To that end, this paper presents a web-enabled, user-friendly PEWS for managing water quality in oyster harvesting areas along Louisiana Gulf Coast, USA. The PEWS consists of (1) an Integrated Space-Ground Sensing System (ISGSS) gathering data for environmental factors influencing water quality, (2) an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model for predicting the level of fecal coliform bacteria, and (3) a web-enabled, user-friendly Geographic Information System (GIS) platform for issuing water pollution advisories and managing oyster harvesting waters. The ISGSS (data acquisition system) collects near real-time environmental data from various sources, including NASA MODIS Terra and Aqua satellites and in-situ sensing stations managed by the USGS and the NOAA. The ANN model is developed using the ANN program in MATLAB Toolbox. The ANN model involves a total of 6 independent environmental variables, including rainfall, tide, wind, salinity, temperature, and weather type along with 8 different combinations of the independent variables. The ANN model is constructed and tested using environmental and bacteriological data collected monthly from 2001 – 2011 by Louisiana Molluscan Shellfish Program at seven oyster harvesting areas in Louisiana Coast, USA. The ANN model is capable of explaining about 76% of variation in fecal coliform levels for model training data and 44% for independent data. The web-based GIS platform is developed using ArcView GIS and ArcIMS. The web-based GIS system can be employed for mapping fecal coliform levels, predicted by the ANN model, and potential risks of norovirus outbreaks in oyster harvesting waters. The PEWS is able to inform decision-makers of potential risks of fecal pollution and virus outbreak on a daily basis, greatly reducing the risk of contaminated oysters to human health.