Time-series analysis of Campylobacter incidence in Switzerland

SUMMARY Campylobacteriosis has been the most common food-associated notifiable infectious disease in Switzerland since 1995. Contact with and ingestion of raw or undercooked broilers are considered the dominant risk factors for infection. In this study, we investigated the temporal relationship between the disease incidence in humans and the prevalence of Campylobacter in broilers in Switzerland from 2008 to 2012. We use a time-series approach to describe the pattern of the disease by incorporating seasonal effects and autocorrelation. The analysis shows that prevalence of Campylobacter in broilers, with a 2-week lag, has a significant impact on disease incidence in humans. Therefore Campylobacter cases in humans can be partly explained by contagion through broiler meat. We also found a strong autoregressive effect in human illness, and a significant increase of illness during Christmas and New Year's holidays. In a final analysis, we corrected for the sampling error of prevalence in broilers and the results gave similar conclusions.

Demographic model of the Swiss cattle population for the years 2009-2011 stratified by gender, age and production type

Demographic composition and dynamics of animal and human populations are important determinants for the transmission dynamics of infectious disease and for the effect of infectious disease or environmental disasters on productivity. In many circumstances, demographic data are not available or of poor quality. Since 1999 Switzerland has been recording cattle movements, births, deaths and slaughter in an animal movement database (AMD). The data present in the AMD offers the opportunity for analysing and understanding the dynamic of the Swiss cattle population. A dynamic population model can serve as a building block for future disease transmission models and help policy makers in developing strategies regarding animal health, animal welfare, livestock management and productivity. The Swiss cattle population was therefore modelled using a system of ordinary differential equations. The model was stratified by production type (dairy or beef), age and gender (male and female calves: 0-1 year, heifers and young bulls: 1-2 years, cows and bulls: older than 2 years). The simulation of the Swiss cattle population reflects the observed pattern accurately. Parameters were optimized on the basis of the goodness-of-fit (using the Powell algorithm). The fitted rates were compared with calculated rates from the AMD and differed only marginally. This gives confidence in the fitted rates of parameters that are not directly deductible from the AMD (e.g. the proportion of calves that are moved from the dairy system to fattening plants).

Mefloquine at the crossroads? Implications for malaria chemoprophylaxis in Europe

Since its introduction to the market in 1985, mefloquine has been used for malaria chemoprophylaxis by more than 35 million travellers. In Europe, in 2014, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) issued recommendations on strengthened warnings, prescribing checklists and updates to the product information of mefloquine. Some malaria prevention advisors question the scientific basis for the restrictions and suggest that this cost-effective, anti-malarial drug will be displaced as a first-line anti-malaria medication with the result that vulnerable groups such as VFR and long-term travellers, pregnant travellers and young children are left without a suitable alternative chemoprophylaxis. This commentary looks at the current position of mefloquine prescribing and the rationale of the new EMA recommendations and restrictions. It also describes the new recommendations for malaria prophylaxis that have been adapted by Switzerland, Germany, Austria and Italy where chemoprophylaxis use is restricted to high-risk malaria-endemic areas.

The swiss transplant cohort study: lessons from the first 6 years.

Prospective cohort studies significantly contribute to answering specific research questions in a defined population. Since 2008, the Swiss Transplant Cohort Study (STCS) systematically enrolled >95 % of all transplant recipients in Switzerland, collecting predefined data at determined time points. Designed as an open cohort, the STCS has included >3900 patients to date, with a median follow-up of 2.96 years (IQR 1.44-4.73). This review highlights some relevant findings in the field of transplant-associated infections gained by the STCS so far. Three key general aspects have crystallized: (i) Well-run cohort studies are a powerful tool to conduct genetic studies, which are crucially dependent on a meticulously described phenotype. (ii) Long-term real-life observations are adding a distinct layer of information that cannot be obtained during randomized studies. (iii) The systemic collection of data, close interdisciplinary collaboration, and continuous analysis of some key outcome data such as infectious diseases endpoints can improve patient care.

Lactate dehydrogenase concentration in nasal wash fluid indicates severity of rhinovirus-induced wheezy bronchitis in preschool children.

The clinical course of rhinovirus (RV)-associated wheezing illnesses is difficult to predict. We measured lactate dehydrogenase concentrations, RV load, antiviral and proinflammatory cytokines in nasal washes obtained from 126 preschool children with RV wheezy bronchitis. lactate dehydrogenase values were inversely associated with subsequent need for oxygen therapy. lactate dehydrogenase may be a useful biomarker predicting disease severity in RV wheezy bronchitis.

Growth in Virologically Suppressed HIV Positive Children on Antiretroviral Therapy: Individual and Population-Level References

BACKGROUND Combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) suppresses viral replication in HIV-infected children. The growth of virologically suppressed children on ART has not been well documented. We aimed to develop dynamic reference curves for weight-for-age z scores (WAZ) and height-for-age z scores (HAZ). RESULTS A total of 4,876 children were followed for 7,407 person-years. Analyses were stratified by baseline z-scores and age, which were the most important predictors of growth response. The youngest children showed the most pronounced increase in weight and height initially but catch-up growth stagnated after 1-2 years. Three years after starting ART, WAZ ranged from -2.2 (95% Prediction interval -5.6 to 0.8) in children with baseline age "5 years and z-score "-3 to 0.0 (-2.7 to 2.4) in children with baseline age "2 years and WAZ "-1. For HAZ the corresponding range was -2.3 (-4.9 to 0.3) in children with baseline age"5 years and z-score "-3 to 0.3 (-3.1 to 3.4) in children with baseline age 2-5 years and HAZ "-1. CONCLUSIONS We have developed an online tool to calculate reference trajectories in fully suppressed children. The web application could help to define 'optimal' growth response and identify children with treatment failure.

Genetic polymorphisms associated with the inflammatory response in bacterial meningitis.

BACKGROUND Bacterial meningitis (BM) is an infectious disease that results in high mortality and morbidity. Despite efficacious antibiotic therapy, neurological sequelae are often observed in patients after disease. Currently, the main challenge in BM treatment is to develop adjuvant therapies that reduce the occurrence of sequelae. In recent papers published by our group, we described the associations between the single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) AADAT +401C > T, APEX1 Asn148Glu, OGG1 Ser326Cys and PARP1 Val762Ala and BM. In this study, we analyzed the associations between the SNPs TNF -308G > A, TNF -857C > T, IL-8 -251A > T and BM and investigated gene-gene interactions, including the SNPs that we published previously. METHODS The study was conducted with 54 BM patients and 110 healthy volunteers (as the control group). The genotypes were investigated via primer-introduced restriction analysis-polymerase chain reaction (PIRA-PCR) or polymerase chain reaction-based restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) analysis. Allelic and genotypic frequencies were also associated with cytokine and chemokine levels, as measured with the x-MAP method, and cell counts. We analyzed gene-gene interactions among SNPs using the generalized multifactor dimensionality reduction (GMDR) method. RESULTS We did not find significant association between the SNPs TNF -857C > T and IL-8 -251A > T and the disease. However, a higher frequency of the variant allele TNF -308A was observed in the control group, associated with changes in cytokine levels compared to individuals with wild type genotypes, suggesting a possible protective role. In addition, combined inter-gene interaction analysis indicated a significant association between certain genotypes and BM, mainly involving the alleles APEX1 148Glu, IL8 -251 T and AADAT +401 T. These genotypic combinations were shown to affect cyto/chemokine levels and cell counts in CSF samples from BM patients. CONCLUSIONS In conclusion, this study revealed a significant association between genetic variability and altered inflammatory responses, involving important pathways that are activated during BM. This knowledge may be useful for a better understanding of BM pathogenesis and the development of new therapeutic approaches.

Cell-to-cell communication--periodontal regeneration.

BACKGROUND Although regenerative treatment options are available, periodontal regeneration is still regarded as insufficient and unpredictable. AIM This review article provides scientific background information on the animated 3D film Cell-to-Cell Communication - Periodontal Regeneration. RESULTS Periodontal regeneration is understood as a recapitulation of embryonic mechanisms. Therefore, a thorough understanding of cellular and molecular mechanisms regulating normal tooth root development is imperative to improve existing and develop new periodontal regenerative therapies. However, compared to tooth crown and earlier stages of tooth development, much less is known about the development of the tooth root. The formation of root cementum is considered the critical element in periodontal regeneration. Therefore, much research in recent years has focused on the origin and differentiation of cementoblasts. Evidence is accumulating that the Hertwig's epithelial root sheath (HERS) has a pivotal role in root formation and cementogenesis. Traditionally, ectomesenchymal cells in the dental follicle were thought to differentiate into cementoblasts. According to an alternative theory, however, cementoblasts originate from the HERS. What happens when the periodontal attachment system is traumatically compromised? Minor mechanical insults to the periodontium may spontaneously heal, and the tissues can structurally and functionally be restored. But what happens to the periodontium in case of periodontitis, an infectious disease, after periodontal treatment? A non-regenerative treatment of periodontitis normally results in periodontal repair (i.e., the formation of a long junctional epithelium) rather than regeneration. Thus, a regenerative treatment is indicated to restore the original architecture and function of the periodontium. Guided tissue regeneration or enamel matrix proteins are such regenerative therapies, but further improvement is required. As remnants of HERS persist as epithelial cell rests of Malassez in the periodontal ligament, these epithelial cells are regarded as a stem cell niche that can give rise to new cementoblasts. Enamel matrix proteins and members of the transforming growth factor beta (TGF-ß) superfamily have been implicated in cementoblast differentiation. CONCLUSION A better knowledge of cell-to-cell communication leading to cementoblast differentiation may be used to develop improved regenerative therapies to reconstitute periodontal tissues that were lost due to periodontitis.

Clinical manifestation of Fuchs uveitis syndrome in childhood

PURPOSE The aim of this study was to describe clinical signs and complications of Fuchs uveitis syndrome (FUS) with onset in childhood. METHODS Ophthalmologic findings and complications in patients with FUS becoming manifest before the age of 16 years were analyzed in a retrospective study at a tertiary referral uveitis center. Inclusion criteria were the presence of pathognomonic FUS findings at any time point and exclusion of any systemic immune-mediated or infectious disease. RESULTS A total of 23 patients (male = 16, female = 7) with juvenile FUS (unilateral n = 20, bilateral n = 3 patients) were included in the study. Mean ages at uveitis and FUS diagnosis were 12.0 ± 4.2 and 22.7 ± 10.7 years, respectively. In six patients, inflammation was noted at age ≤ 7 years. The following inflammatory signs were observed in a total of 26 eyes: ≤ 1+ anterior chamber cell grade (n = 26), vitreous cells (n = 24), fine keratic precipitates (KPs; n = 23), stellate KPs (n = 11), mutton-fat KPs (n = 23), diffuse (n = 24) or inferior (n = 8) distribution of KPs, Koeppe nodules (n = 10), and iris heterochromia (n = 14). A representative subgroup of patients (n = 5) is shown who presented with non-specific clinical signs in the beginning and in whom typical FUS signs became manifest only at a later stage. Secondary complications such as cataract (n = 19), ocular hypertension (n = 3), or glaucomatous disc damage (n = 2) were found after a mean uveitis duration of 11.6, 19.5, and 20.3 years, respectively. CONCLUSION FUS may begin in early childhood, and the characteristic findings may not be present at onset of disease. The diagnosis is often delayed for years, occasionally with the consequence of overtreatment with anti-inflammatory drugs.

Reducing CD4 Monitoring in Children on Antiretroviral Therapy With Virologic Suppression.

BACKGROUND Ongoing CD4 monitoring in patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) with viral suppression has been questioned. We evaluated the probability of CD4 decline in children with viral suppression and CD4 recovery after 1 year on ART. METHODS We included children from 8 South African cohorts with routine HIV-RNA monitoring if (1) they were "responders" [HIV-RNA < 400 copies/mL and no severe immunosuppression after ≥1 year on ART (time 0)] and (2) ≥1 HIV-RNA and CD4 measurement within 15 months of time 0. We determined the probability of CD4 decline to World Health Organization-defined severe immunosuppression for 3 years after time 0 if viral suppression was maintained. Follow-up was censored at the earliest of the following dates: the day before first HIV-RNA measurement >400 copies/mL; day before a >15-month gap in testing and date of death, loss to follow-up, transfer out or database closure. RESULTS Among 5984 children [median age at time 0: 5.8 years (interquartile range: 3.1-9.0)], 270 children experienced a single CD4 decline to severe immunosuppression within 3 years of time 0 with probability of 6.6% (95% CI: 5.8-7.4). A subsequent CD4 measurement within 15 months of the first low measurement was available for 63% of children with CD4 decline and 86% showed CD4 recovery. The probability of CD4 decline was lowest (2.8%) in children aged 2 years or older with no or mild immunosuppression and on ART for <18 months at time 0. This group comprised 40% of children. CONCLUSIONS This finding suggests that it may be safe to stop routine CD4 monitoring in children older than 2 years and rely on virologic monitoring alone.

Dynamics of a Tularemia Outbreak in a Closely Monitored Free-Roaming Population of Wild House Mice.

Infectious disease outbreaks can be devastating because of their sudden occurrence, as well as the complexity of monitoring and controlling them. Outbreaks in wildlife are even more challenging to observe and describe, especially when small animals or secretive species are involved. Modeling such infectious disease events is relevant to investigating their dynamics and is critical for decision makers to accomplish outbreak management. Tularemia, caused by the bacterium Francisella tularensis, is a potentially lethal zoonosis. Of the few animal outbreaks that have been reported in the literature, only those affecting zoo animals have been closely monitored. Here, we report the first estimation of the basic reproduction number R0 of an outbreak in wildlife caused by F. tularensis using quantitative modeling based on a susceptible-infected-recovered framework. We applied that model to data collected during an extensive investigation of an outbreak of tularemia caused by F. tularensis subsp. holarctica (also designated as type B) in a closely monitored, free-roaming house mouse (Mus musculus domesticus) population in Switzerland. Based on our model and assumptions, the best estimated basic reproduction number R0 of the current outbreak is 1.33. Our results suggest that tularemia can cause severe outbreaks in small rodents. We also concluded that the outbreak self-exhausted in approximately three months without administrating antibiotics.

Incidence of AIDS-Defining and Other Cancers in HIV-Positive Children in South Africa: Record Linkage Study.

BACKGROUND Little is known on the risk of cancer in HIV-positive children in sub-Saharan Africa. We examined incidence and risk factors of AIDS-defining and other cancers in pediatric antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs in South Africa. METHODS We linked the records of five ART programs in Johannesburg and Cape Town to those of pediatric oncology units, based on name and surname, date of birth, folder and civil identification numbers. We calculated incidence rates and obtained hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) from Cox regression models including ART, sex, age, and degree of immunodeficiency. Missing CD4 counts and CD4% were multiply imputed. Immunodeficiency was defined according to World Health Organization 2005 criteria. RESULTS Data of 11,707 HIV-positive children were included in the analysis. During 29,348 person-years of follow-up 24 cancers were diagnosed, for an incidence rate of 82 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI 55-122). The most frequent cancers were Kaposi Sarcoma (34 per 100,000 person-years) and Non Hodgkin Lymphoma (31 per 100,000 person-years). The incidence of non AIDS-defining malignancies was 17 per 100,000. The risk of developing cancer was lower on ART (HR 0.29, 95%CI 0.09-0.86), and increased with age at enrolment (>10 versus <3 years: HR 7.3, 95% CI 2.2-24.6) and immunodeficiency at enrolment (advanced/severe versus no/mild: HR 3.5, 95%CI 1.1-12.0). The HR for the effect of ART from complete case analysis was similar but ceased to be statistically significant (p=0.078). CONCLUSIONS Early HIV diagnosis and linkage to care, with start of ART before advanced immunodeficiency develops, may substantially reduce the burden of cancer in HIV-positive children in South Africa and elsewhere.

Human Rhinovirus Types and Association with Respiratory Symptoms During the First Year of Life.

Human rhinoviruses (HRV) cause respiratory infections and are associated with asthma development. We assessed HRV prevalence, types and association with respiratory symptoms in the first year of life in 20 unselected infants. HRV was detected in 32% of 825 weekly nasal swabs. Seventy-four different types of all three species were identified. HRV presence and related respiratory symptoms are highly heterogeneous.

Variation in Current Management of Term and Late-Preterm Neonates at Risk for Early-Onset Sepsis "An International Survey and Review of Guidelines"

BACKGROUND Uncertainty about the presence of infection results in unnecessary and prolonged empiric antibiotic treatment of newborns at risk for early-onset sepsis (EOS). This study evaluates the impact of this uncertainty on the diversity in management. METHODS A web-based survey with questions addressing management of infection risk-adjusted scenarios was performed in Europe, North America, and Australia. Published national guidelines (n=5) were reviewed and compared to the results of the survey. RESULTS 439 Clinicians (68% were neonatologists) from 16 countries completed the survey. In the low-risk scenario, 29% would start antibiotic therapy and 26% would not, both groups without laboratory investigations; 45% would start if laboratory markers were abnormal. In the high-risk scenario, 99% would start antibiotic therapy. In the low-risk scenario, 89% would discontinue antibiotic therapy before 72 hours. In the high-risk scenario, 35% would discontinue therapy before 72 hours, 56% would continue therapy for five to seven days, and 9% for more than 7 days. Laboratory investigations were used in 31% of scenarios for the decision to start, and in 72% for the decision to discontinue antibiotic treatment. National guidelines differ considerably regarding the decision to start in low-risk and regarding the decision to continue therapy in higher risk situations. CONCLUSIONS There is a broad diversity of clinical practice in management of EOS and a lack of agreement between current guidelines. The results of the survey reflect the diversity of national guidelines. Prospective studies regarding management of neonates at risk of EOS with safety endpoints are needed.

Investigating the potential of reported cattle mortality data in Switzerland for syndromic surveillance

Systems for the identification and registration of cattle have gradually been receiving attention for use in syndromic surveillance, a relatively recent approach for the early detection of infectious disease outbreaks. Real or near real-time monitoring of deaths or stillbirths reported to these systems offer an opportunity to detect temporal or spatial clusters of increased mortality that could be caused by an infectious disease epidemic. In Switzerland, such data are recorded in the "Tierverkehrsdatenbank" (TVD). To investigate the potential of the Swiss TVD for syndromic surveillance, 3 years of data (2009-2011) were assessed in terms of data quality, including timeliness of reporting and completeness of geographic data. Two time-series consisting of reported on-farm deaths and stillbirths were retrospectively analysed to define and quantify the temporal patterns that result from non-health related factors. Geographic data were almost always present in the TVD data; often at different spatial scales. On-farm deaths were reported to the database by farmers in a timely fashion; stillbirths were less timely. Timeliness and geographic coverage are two important features of disease surveillance systems, highlighting the suitability of the TVD for use in a syndromic surveillance system. Both time series exhibited different temporal patterns that were associated with non-health related factors. To avoid false positive signals, these patterns need to be removed from the data or accounted for in some way before applying aberration detection algorithms in real-time. Evaluating mortality data reported to systems for the identification and registration of cattle is of value for comparing national data systems and as a first step towards a European-wide early detection system for emerging and re-emerging cattle diseases.