Intermediate- and long-term earthquake prediction.

Progress in long- and intermediate-term earthquake prediction is reviewed emphasizing results from California. Earthquake prediction as a scientific discipline is still in its infancy. Probabilistic estimates that segments of several faults in California will be the sites of large shocks in the next 30 years are now generally accepted and widely used. Several examples are presented of changes in rates of moderate-size earthquakes and seismic moment release on time scales of a few to 30 years that occurred prior to large shocks. A distinction is made between large earthquakes that rupture the entire downdip width of the outer brittle part of the earth's crust and small shocks that do not. Large events occur quasi-periodically in time along a fault segment and happen much more often than predicted from the rates of small shocks along that segment. I am moderately optimistic about improving predictions of large events for time scales of a few to 30 years although little work of that type is currently underway in the United States. Precursory effects, like the changes in stress they reflect, should be examined from a tensorial rather than a scalar perspective. A broad pattern of increased numbers of moderate-size shocks in southern California since 1986 resembles the pattern in the 25 years before the great 1906 earthquake. Since it may be a long-term precursor to a great event on the southern San Andreas fault, that area deserves detailed intensified study.

Lessons of Loss

Lessons of Loss consists of four poems and four personal essays, each dealing with a profound loss in my life. I am forever in pursuit of the mastery of hope, and writing serves as a critical vehicle in moving me through grief towards that beacon of hope. In the most difficult times, I seek comfort from the writings of those who have endured loss with a sense of humility and grace. To express my gratitude to those who have provided me with comfort and direction, I strive to master Lessons of Loss so that someday I might provide some flicker of hope to those in search of solace.

[Forensic disputation on thinking], undated

Folio-sized leaf containing a handwritten disputation arguing that "the mind is active in thinking." The essay begins, "Since I am obliged by academical institution to engage in a dispute..."

Hope: a poem delivered at an exhibition in Cambridge, July 10, 1800

This four-page handwritten poem was composed by Harvard student Joseph Mansfield for a College exhibition on July 8, 1800. The poem begins, "I am not blesd, but may hereafter be; / Who knows what fortune has in store for me?" and concludes with verses about the American Revolutionary War and George Washington.

Letters from William Tudor to his mother, Delia Jarvis Tudor,

Two letters written from Birmingham, England, in which Tudor describes the town and his lodgings: "My establishment consists of a woman cook well recommended, [and] a housemaid....I am looking out for a cat, and have already a Newfoundland dog of Herculean dimensions." He also writes of his plans to leave England for New York.

Series: II. Letter from Joseph Willard, Cambridge, Massachusetts, to William Willard, Petersham, Massachusetts, August 4, 1800

Letter from Harvard president Joseph Willard to his brother (Samuel’s father) William Willard recommending a young preacher, Micah Stone, (Harvard College Class of 1790), to be assigned to Petersham’s church. He describes Stone as “liberal and catholic.” President Willard explains that he has asked Samuel to post the letter because, “I am just setting out upon a journey for my health, and leave this letter to be forwarded to you by your son.”

Need To Be Adored

Faced with a diagnosis of multiple sclerosis, I began with the objective of discovering methods for creating art that were still accessible to me. Along the way, I encountered others who had travelled this road before me. Their experiences led me to examine, not only my art, but also my political orientations, my love obligations and my transitioning self. In my varied art pieces, I conjure something from diverse sources and different worldviews, including contemporary feminist performance art and disability cultural theory. My thesis is a project. I make things: puppets, videos and performances, which included the exhibition, Need to be Adored (2014), staged in the digital media lab of the Isabel Bader Centre for the Performing Arts in Kingston, Ontario, Canada. The exhibition introduced thirteen of my puppets and a thirty-two-minute looped video. Following the exhibition, I put the puppets away and spent two years reading. Finally, taking my inspiration from Carolyn Ellis’s The Autoethnographic I (Ellis 2004), I turned my processes into words. I wrote out my experiences. I created an alternative text of my identity from an able-bodied cis-identified woman into a disabled trans-feminist artist academic. The writing required an uncomfortably intimate examination of my life. Nothing less than complete honesty would allow me to understand my new location. The resulting text is a lyrical and sometimes whimsical flow of consciousness that invites the reader to imagine what it might be like to engage in such a candid review of everything one holds close to one’s heart. Contained within are all my identities. In this text I let some out. This is a story of unsettling. I am working on my art practices, creating a cast of characters from cloth. Puppets. El becomes the exulted main character of a fictional accounting. She uncovers her queer roots and begins to see that she is at the centre of a very strange geography. Her desire to make film is revealed as she re-remembers her childhood through a disability lens.

The Strasbourg View on the Charter of Fundamental Rights. Research Paper in Law (Cooperative Research Paper) 03/2013

From the Introduction. May I say how delighted I am at this opportunity of talking to you today about the perspective of a Strasbourg judge on the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union. It goes without saying that the views I here express are not to be attributed to the Court itself; yet they may be taken as reflecting, in a general sense, what I regard to be the Strasbourg approach.

To Promote the Progress: Why Do States Create New Intellectual Property Rights? ACES Working Papers, August 2012

The question I seek to answer is not about explaining support or resistance to the globalization or harmonization of IP rights. Rather, I am interested in new IP rights: what happened to cause a certain intangible to change from something that was not considered intellectual property to something that was considered intellectual property? Explaining the globalization or harmonization of already-existing IP rights is an important task, but fundamentally different than explaining why some things became intellectual property in the first place.

A Fresh Start for the European Union after Brexit. CEPS Commentary, 29 June 2016

I am still trying to process the shock of the UK referendum, which has dealt a historic blow to the European Union and has alerted us to the danger of the wave of anti-establishment and anti-elite sentiments shaking up developed nations, and bringing about disastrous decisions that cannot be easily reversed. These movements are present in many European countries; we cannot underestimate the dangers of tumbling down the slippery slope of nationalism, which could put the very survival of the Union into question. A response from the EU, or from a smaller circle of its founding or main members, is necessary – as long as we can identify meaningful goals.

Gitanjali : song-offerings /

For voice and piano.

Gitanjali. [music] : (song-offerings) /

For voice and piano.

The Pitts-street chapel lectures.

Why I am a Methodist, by W. R. Clark.--"Why are you a Universalist?" By T. B. Thayer.--Why I am a Baptist, by J. N. Sykes.--Why am I a Trinitarian Congregationalist? By Nehemiah Adams.--Why I am a churchman, by G. M. Randall.--Why I am a Unitarian, by Orville Dewey.--Spiritual Christianity, by T. S. King.

Correspondence of Edmund Burke & William Windham,: with other illustrative letters from the Windham papers in the British museum,

Presented to the Roxburghe club by Arthur James Balfour.

The Cabinet of Irish literature : selections from the works of the chief poets, orators, and prose writers of Ireland; with biographical sketches and literary notices /

"Well nigh the whole of the first three volumes were prepared by the late Mr. Read. I am responsible for the fourth volume only." Preface signed : T. P. O'Connor, M.A.