Assessing alpine plant vulnerability to climate change: A modeling perspective

The potential ecological impact of ongoing climate change has been much discussed. High mountain ecosystems were identified early on as potentially very sensitive areas. Scenarios of upward species movement and vegetation shift are commonly discussed in the literature. Mountains being characteristically conic in shape, impact scenarios usually assume that a smaller surface area will be available as species move up. However, as the frequency distribution of additional physiographic factors (e.g., slope angle) changes with increasing elevation (e.g., with few gentle slopes available at higher elevation), species migrating upslope may encounter increasingly unsuitable conditions. As a result, many species could suffer severe reduction of their habitat surface, which could in turn affect patterns of biodiversity. In this paper, results from static plant distribution modeling are used to derive climate change impact scenarios in a high mountain environment. Models are adjusted with presence/absence of species. Environmental predictors used are: annual mean air temperature, slope, indices of topographic position, geology, rock cover, modeled permafrost and several indices of solar radiation and snow cover duration. Potential Habitat Distribution maps were drawn for 62 higher plant species, from which three separate climate change impact scenarios were derived. These scenarios show a great range of response, depending on the species and the degree of warming. Alpine species would be at greatest risk of local extinction, whereas species with a large elevation range would run the lowest risk. Limitations of the models and scenarios are further discussed.

Optimization of the sampling scheme for maps of physical and chemical properties estimated by kriging

The sampling scheme is essential in the investigation of the spatial variability of soil properties in Soil Science studies. The high costs of sampling schemes optimized with additional sampling points for each physical and chemical soil property, prevent their use in precision agriculture. The purpose of this study was to obtain an optimal sampling scheme for physical and chemical property sets and investigate its effect on the quality of soil sampling. Soil was sampled on a 42-ha area, with 206 geo-referenced points arranged in a regular grid spaced 50 m from each other, in a depth range of 0.00-0.20 m. In order to obtain an optimal sampling scheme for every physical and chemical property, a sample grid, a medium-scale variogram and the extended Spatial Simulated Annealing (SSA) method were used to minimize kriging variance. The optimization procedure was validated by constructing maps of relative improvement comparing the sample configuration before and after the process. A greater concentration of recommended points in specific areas (NW-SE direction) was observed, which also reflects a greater estimate variance at these locations. The addition of optimal samples, for specific regions, increased the accuracy up to 2 % for chemical and 1 % for physical properties. The use of a sample grid and medium-scale variogram, as previous information for the conception of additional sampling schemes, was very promising to determine the locations of these additional points for all physical and chemical soil properties, enhancing the accuracy of kriging estimates of the physical-chemical properties.

Artificial neural networks applied for soil class prediction in mountainous landscape of the Serra do Mar¹

Soil information is needed for managing the agricultural environment. The aim of this study was to apply artificial neural networks (ANNs) for the prediction of soil classes using orbital remote sensing products, terrain attributes derived from a digital elevation model and local geology information as data sources. This approach to digital soil mapping was evaluated in an area with a high degree of lithologic diversity in the Serra do Mar. The neural network simulator used in this study was JavaNNS and the backpropagation learning algorithm. For soil class prediction, different combinations of the selected discriminant variables were tested: elevation, declivity, aspect, curvature, curvature plan, curvature profile, topographic index, solar radiation, LS topographic factor, local geology information, and clay mineral indices, iron oxides and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from an image of a Landsat-7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) sensor. With the tested sets, best results were obtained when all discriminant variables were associated with geological information (overall accuracy 93.2 - 95.6 %, Kappa index 0.924 - 0.951, for set 13). Excluding the variable profile curvature (set 12), overall accuracy ranged from 93.9 to 95.4 % and the Kappa index from 0.932 to 0.948. The maps based on the neural network classifier were consistent and similar to conventional soil maps drawn for the study area, although with more spatial details. The results show the potential of ANNs for soil class prediction in mountainous areas with lithological diversity.

Predicting potential distribution of the jaguar (Panthera onca) in Mexico: identification of priority areas for conservation

Aim The jaguar, Panthera onca, is a species of global conservation concern. In Mexico, the northernmost part of its distribution range, its conservation status, is particularly critical, while its potential and actual distribution is poorly known. We propose an ensemble model (EM) of the potential distribution for the jaguar in Mexico and identify the priority areas for conservation.Location Mexico.Methods We generated our EM based on three presence-only methods (Ecological Niche Factor Analysis, Mahalanobis distance, Maxent) and considering environmental, biological and anthropogenic factors. We used this model to evaluate the efficacy of the existing Mexican protected areas (PAs), to evaluate the adequacy of the jaguar conservation units (JCUs) and to propose new areas that should be considered for conservation and management of the species in Mexico.Results Our results outline that 16% of Mexico (c. 312,000 km2) can be considered as suitable for the presence of the jaguar. Furthermore, 13% of the suitable areas are included in existing PAs and 14% are included in JCUs (Sanderson et al., 2002).Main conclusions Clearly much more should be carried out to establish a proactive conservation strategy. Based on our results, we propose here new jaguar conservation and management areas that are important for a nationwide conservation blueprint.

Financial crisis: theory and practice

In the last 50 years, we have had approximately 40 events with characteristics related to financial crisis. The most severe crisis was in 1929, when the financial markets plummet and the US gross domestic product decline in more than 30 percent. Recently some years ago, a new crisis developed in the United States, but instantly caused consequences and effects in the rest of the world.This new economic and financial crisis has increased the interest and motivation for the academic community, professors and researchers, to understand the causes and effects of the crisis, to learn from it. This is the one of the main reasons for the compilation of this book, which begins with a meeting of a group of IAFI researchers from the University of Barcelona, where researchers form Mexico and Spain, explain causes and consequences of the crisis of 2007.For that reason, we believed this set of chapters related to methodologies, applications and theories, would conveniently explained the characteristics and events of the past and future financial crisisThis book consists in 3 main sections, the first one called "State of the Art and current situation", the second named "Econometric applications to estimate crisis time periods" , and the third one "Solutions to diminish the effects of the crisis". The first section explains the current point of view of many research papers related to financial crisis, it has 2 chapters. In the first one, it describe and analyzes the models that historically have been used to explain financial crisis, furthermore, it proposes to used alternative methodologies such as Fuzzy Cognitive Maps. On the other hand , Chapter 2 , explains the characteristics and details of the 2007 crisis from the US perspective and its comparison to 1929 crisis, presenting some effects in Mexico and Latin America.The second section presents two econometric applications to estimate possible crisis periods. For this matter, Chapter 3, studies 3 Latin-American countries: Argentina, Brazil and Peru in the 1994 crisis and estimates the multifractal characteristics to identify financial and economic distress.Chapter 4 explains the crisis situations in Argentina (2001), Mexico (1994) and the recent one in the United States (2007) and its effects in other countries through a financial series methodology related to the stock market.The last section shows an alternative to prevent the effects of the crisis. The first chapter explains the financial stability effects through the financial system regulation and some globalization standards. Chapter 6, study the benefits of the Investor activism and a way to protect personal and national wealth to face the financial crisis risks.

Geology of the NW Indian Himalaya

This review paper deals with the geology of the NW Indian Himalaya situated in the states of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Garhwal. The models and mechanisms discussed, concerning the tectonic and metamorphic history of the Himalayan range, are based on a new compilation of a geological map and cross sections, as well as on paleomagnetic, stratigraphic, petrologic, structural, metamorphic, thermobarometric and radiometric data. The protolith of the Himalayan range, the North Indian flexural passive margin of the Neo-Tethys ocean, consists of a Lower Proterozoic basement, intruded by 1.8-1.9 Ga bimodal magmatites, overlain by a horizontally stratified sequence of Upper Proterozoic to Paleocene sediments, intruded by 470-500 Ma old Ordovician mainly peraluminous s-type granites, Carboniferous tholeiitic to alkaline basalts and intruded and overlain by Permian tholeiitic continental flood basalts. No elements of the Archaen crystalline basement of the South Indian shield have been identified in the Himalayan range. Deformation of the Himalayan accretionary wedge resulted from the continental collision of India and Asia beginning some 65-55 Ma ago, after the NE-directed underthrusting of the Neo-Tethys oceanic crust below Asia and the formation of the Andean-type 103-50 (-41) Ma old Ladakh batholith to the north of the Indus Suture. Cylindrical in geometry, the Himalayan range consists, from NE to SW, from older to younger tectonic elements, of the following zones: 1) The 25 km wide Ladakh batholith and the Asian mantle wedge form the backstop of the growing Himalayan accretionary wedge. 2) The Indus Suture zone is composed of obducted slices of the oceanic crust, island arcs, like the Dras arc, overlain by Late Cretaceous fore arc basin sediments and the mainly Paleocene to Early Eocene and Miocene epi-sutural intra-continental Indus molasse. 3) The Late Paleocene to Eocene North Himalayan nappe stack, up to 40 km thick prior to erosion, consists of Upper Proterozoic to Paleocene rocks, with the eclogitic and coesite bearing Tso Morari gneiss nappe at its base. It includes a branch of the Central Himalayan detachment, the 22-18 Ma old Zanskar Shear zone that is intruded and dated by the 22 Ma Gumburanjun leucogranite; it reactivates the frontal thrusts of the SW-verging North Himalayan nappes. 4) The late Eocene-Miocene SW-directed High Himalayan or ``Crystalline'' nappe comprises Upper Proterozoic to Mesozoic sediments and Ordovician granites, identical to those of the North Himalayan nappes. The Main Central thrust at its base was created in a zone of Eocene to Early Oligocene anatexis by ductile detachment of the subducted Indian crust, below the pre-existing 25-35 km thick NE-directed Shikar Beh and SW-directed North Himalayan nappe stacks. 5) The late Miocene Lesser Himalayan thrust with the Main Boundary Thrust at its base consists of early Proterozoic to Cambrian rocks intruded by 1.8-1.9 Ga bimodal magmatites. The Subhimalaya is a thrust wedge of Himalayan fore deep basin sediments, composed of the Early Eocene marine Subathu marls and sandstones as well as the up to 8'000 m-thick Miocene to recent Ganga molasse, a coarsening upwards sequence of shales, sandstones and conglomerates. The active frontal thrust is covered by the sediments of the Indus-Ganga plains.

Strange nonchaotic attractors in Harper maps

We study the existence of strange nonchaotic attractors (SNA) in the family of Harper maps. We prove that for a set of parameters of positive measure, the map possesses a SNA. However, the set is nowhere dense. By changing the parameter arbitrarily small amounts, the attractor is a smooth curve and not a SNA.

Periodic points of holomorphic maps via Lefschetz numbers

In this paper we study the set of periods of holomorphic maps on compact manifolds, using the periodic Lefschetz numbers introduced by Dold and Llibre, which can be computed from the homology class of the map. We show that these numbers contain information about the existence of periodic points of a given period; and, if we assume the map to be transversal, then they give us the exact number of such periodic orbits. We apply this result to the complex projective space of dimension n and to some special type of Hopf surfaces, partially characterizing their set of periods. In the first case we also show that any holomorphic map of CP(n) of degree greater than one has infinitely many distinct periodic orbits, hence generalizing a theorem of Fornaess and Sibony. We then characterize the set of periods of a holomorphic map on the Riemann sphere, hence giving an alternative proof of Baker's theorem.

Improved segmentation of deep brain grey matter structures using magnetization transfer (MT) parameter maps.

Basal ganglia and brain stem nuclei are involved in the pathophysiology of various neurological and neuropsychiatric disorders. Currently available structural T1-weighted (T1w) magnetic resonance images do not provide sufficient contrast for reliable automated segmentation of various subcortical grey matter structures. We use a novel, semi-quantitative magnetization transfer (MT) imaging protocol that overcomes limitations in T1w images, which are mainly due to their sensitivity to the high iron content in subcortical grey matter. We demonstrate improved automated segmentation of putamen, pallidum, pulvinar and substantia nigra using MT images. A comparison with segmentation of high-quality T1w images was performed in 49 healthy subjects. Our results show that MT maps are highly suitable for automated segmentation, and so for multi-subject morphometric studies with a focus on subcortical structures.

Is the impact of public investment neutral across the regional income distribution?: evidence from Mexico

This paper investigates the contribution of public investment to the reduction of regional inqualities, with a specific application to Mexico. We use quantile regressions to examine the impact of public investment on regional disparities according to the position of each region in the conditional distribution of regional income. Results confirm the hypothesis that regional inequalities can indeed be atrributed to the regional distribution of public investment, where the observed pattern shows that public investment mainly helped to reduce regional inequalities between the richest regions

La biblioteca electronica en Colima-Mexico

Un sueño se volvió realidad. La tarea gratificadora de colocar a disposición de los usuarios de recursos tecnológicos de información en el ámbito interno e foráneo, emprendida por la Universidad de Colima, en uno de los estados de México. En 1983, la Universidad de Colima creó la Dirección General de Desarrollo Bibliotecario con el objetivo fundamental de estructurar el sistema de bibliotecas universitárias para dar apoyo a la enseñanza e a la investigación. Fue un proyecto que envolvia un arduo trabajo de capacitación de personal, sistematización de información y captación de recursos financieros. La automatización de las bibliotecas posibilitó sistematizar el acervo de las bibliotecas de Colima, además de servir como base para la organización de la primera biblioteca electrónica de America Latina. La biblioteca electrónica de ciencia fué inagurada el día 1° de Junio de 1995. Ofrece servicio on-line de información sobre documentos de su propia biblioteca así como de otras extranjeras. El edifício fué proyectado para acomodar equipos modernos e rápidos, conectados a la Internet. Ocupando un área de 3000 metros, el complejo abriga áreas de consulta automatizada, espacio destinado a textos electrónicos; CD-ROMs, colecciones, fonoteca para 20 usuários; 44 cabinas individuales y 10 colectivas, equipadas con Internet y um auditório con capacidad de 250 persoas para congresos. La biblioteca electrónica despertó un gran interés en los usuários, aumentando los servicios con que atiende desde a una ama de casa como a pesquisadores universitários. Los desafios y las perspectivas de esta nueva experiencia son los de cómo contar con recursos inovadores, personal y usuários capacitados y equipo adecuado.