Selection of funding schemes by a borrowing decision model: a Hong Kong case study

In financial decision-making, a number of mathematical models have been developed for financial management in construction. However, optimizing both qualitative and quantitative factors and the semi-structured nature of construction finance optimization problems are key challenges in solving construction finance decisions. The selection of funding schemes by a modified construction loan acquisition model is solved by an adaptive genetic algorithm (AGA) approach. The basic objectives of the model are to optimize the loan and to minimize the interest payments for all projects. Multiple projects being undertaken by a medium-size construction firm in Hong Kong were used as a real case study to demonstrate the application of the model to the borrowing decision problems. A compromise monthly borrowing schedule was finally achieved. The results indicate that Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) Loan Guarantee Scheme (SGS) was first identified as the source of external financing. Selection of sources of funding can then be made to avoid the possibility of financial problems in the firm by classifying qualitative factors into external, interactive and internal types and taking additional qualitative factors including sovereignty, credit ability and networking into consideration. Thus a more accurate, objective and reliable borrowing decision can be provided for the decision-maker to analyse the financial options.

An overview of domestic energy models and a new approach with agent based modelling

Government targets for CO2 reductions are being progressively tightened, the Climate Change Act set the UK target as an 80% reduction by 2050 on 1990 figures. The residential sector accounts for about 30% of emissions. This paper discusses current modelling techniques in the residential sector: principally top-down and bottom-up. Top-down models work on a macro-economic basis and can be used to consider large scale economic changes; bottom-up models are detail rich to model technological changes. Bottom-up models demonstrate what is technically possible. However, there are differences between the technical potential and what is likely given the limited economic rationality of the typical householder. This paper recommends research to better understand individuals’ behaviour. Such research needs to include actual choices, stated preferences and opinion research to allow a detailed understanding of the individual end user. This increased understanding can then be used in an agent based model (ABM). In an ABM, agents are used to model real world actors and can be given a rule set intended to emulate the actions and behaviours of real people. This can help in understanding how new technologies diffuse. In this way a degree of micro-economic realism can be added to domestic carbon modelling. Such a model should then be of use for both forward projections of CO2 and to analyse the cost effectiveness of various policy measures.

Induction of modular classification rules: using Jmax-pruning

The Prism family of algorithms induces modular classification rules which, in contrast to decision tree induction algorithms, do not necessarily fit together into a decision tree structure. Classifiers induced by Prism algorithms achieve a comparable accuracy compared with decision trees and in some cases even outperform decision trees. Both kinds of algorithms tend to overfit on large and noisy datasets and this has led to the development of pruning methods. Pruning methods use various metrics to truncate decision trees or to eliminate whole rules or single rule terms from a Prism rule set. For decision trees many pre-pruning and postpruning methods exist, however for Prism algorithms only one pre-pruning method has been developed, J-pruning. Recent work with Prism algorithms examined J-pruning in the context of very large datasets and found that the current method does not use its full potential. This paper revisits the J-pruning method for the Prism family of algorithms and develops a new pruning method Jmax-pruning, discusses it in theoretical terms and evaluates it empirically.

Estimation of optimal gravity wave parameters for climate models using data assimilation

There is a current need to constrain the parameters of gravity wave drag (GWD) schemes in climate models using observational information instead of tuning them subjectively. In this work, an inverse technique is developed using data assimilation principles to estimate gravity wave parameters. Because mostGWDschemes assume instantaneous vertical propagation of gravity waves within a column, observations in a single column can be used to formulate a one-dimensional assimilation problem to estimate the unknown parameters. We define a cost function that measures the differences between the unresolved drag inferred from observations (referred to here as the ‘observed’ GWD) and the GWD calculated with a parametrisation scheme. The geometry of the cost function presents some difficulties, including multiple minima and ill-conditioning because of the non-independence of the gravity wave parameters. To overcome these difficulties we propose a genetic algorithm to minimize the cost function, which provides a robust parameter estimation over a broad range of prescribed ‘true’ parameters. When real experiments using an independent estimate of the ‘observed’ GWD are performed, physically unrealistic values of the parameters can result due to the non-independence of the parameters. However, by constraining one of the parameters to lie within a physically realistic range, this degeneracy is broken and the other parameters are also found to lie within physically realistic ranges. This argues for the essential physical self-consistency of the gravity wave scheme. A much better fit to the observed GWD at high latitudes is obtained when the parameters are allowed to vary with latitude. However, a close fit can be obtained either in the upper or the lower part of the profiles, but not in both at the same time. This result is a consequence of assuming an isotropic launch spectrum. The changes of sign in theGWDfound in the tropical lower stratosphere, which are associated with part of the quasi-biennial oscillation forcing, cannot be captured by the parametrisation with optimal parameters.

Developing a reliable strategy to infer the effective soil hydraulic properties from field evaporation experiments for agro-hydrological models

The Richards equation has been widely used for simulating soil water movement. However, the take-up of agro-hydrological models using the basic theory of soil water flow for optimizing irrigation, fertilizer and pesticide practices is still low. This is partly due to the difficulties in obtaining accurate values for soil hydraulic properties at a field scale. Here, we use an inverse technique to deduce the effective soil hydraulic properties, based on measuring the changes in the distribution of soil water with depth in a fallow field over a long period, subject to natural rainfall and evaporation using a robust micro Genetic Algorithm. A new optimized function was constructed from the soil water contents at different depths, and the soil water at field capacity. The deduced soil water retention curve was approximately parallel but higher than that derived from published pedo-tranfer functions for a given soil pressure head. The water contents calculated from the deduced soil hydraulic properties were in good agreement with the measured values. The reliability of the deduced soil hydraulic properties was tested in reproducing data measured from an independent experiment on the same soil cropped with leek. The calculation of root water uptake took account for both soil water potential and root density distribution. Results show that the predictions of soil water contents at various depths agree fairly well with the measurements, indicating that the inverse analysis is an effective and reliable approach to estimate soil hydraulic properties, and thus permits the simulation of soil water dynamics in both cropped and fallow soils in the field accurately. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Heuristic based evolution for the coordination of autonomous vehicles in the absence of speed lanes

The current state of the art in the planning and coordination of autonomous vehicles is based upon the presence of speed lanes. In a traffic scenario where there is a large diversity between vehicles the removal of speed lanes can generate a significantly higher traffic bandwidth. Vehicle navigation in such unorganized traffic is considered. An evolutionary based trajectory planning technique has the advantages of making driving efficient and safe, however it also has to surpass the hurdle of computational cost. In this paper, we propose a real time genetic algorithm with Bezier curves for trajectory planning. The main contribution is the integration of vehicle following and overtaking behaviour for general traffic as heuristics for the coordination between vehicles. The resultant coordination strategy is fast and near-optimal. As the vehicles move, uncertainties may arise which are constantly adapted to, and may even lead to either the cancellation of an overtaking procedure or the initiation of one. Higher level planning is performed by Dijkstra's algorithm which indicates the route to be followed by the vehicle in a road network. Re-planning is carried out when a road blockage or obstacle is detected. Experimental results confirm the success of the algorithm subject to optimal high and low-level planning, re-planning and overtaking.

Towards cost-sensitive adaptation: when is it worth updating your predictive model?

Our digital universe is rapidly expanding,more and more daily activities are digitally recorded, data arrives in streams, it needs to be analyzed in real time and may evolve over time. In the last decade many adaptive learning algorithms and prediction systems, which can automatically update themselves with the new incoming data, have been developed. The majority of those algorithms focus on improving the predictive performance and assume that model update is always desired as soon as possible and as frequently as possible. In this study we consider potential model update as an investment decision, which, as in the financial markets, should be taken only if a certain return on investment is expected. We introduce and motivate a new research problem for data streams ? cost-sensitive adaptation. We propose a reference framework for analyzing adaptation strategies in terms of costs and benefits. Our framework allows to characterize and decompose the costs of model updates, and to asses and interpret the gains in performance due to model adaptation for a given learning algorithm on a given prediction task. Our proof-of-concept experiment demonstrates how the framework can aid in analyzing and managing adaptation decisions in the chemical industry.

Method for exploratory cluster analysis and visualisation of single-trial ERP ensembles

Background: The validity of ensemble averaging on event-related potential (ERP) data has been questioned, due to its assumption that the ERP is identical across trials. Thus, there is a need for preliminary testing for cluster structure in the data. New method: We propose a complete pipeline for the cluster analysis of ERP data. To increase the signalto-noise (SNR) ratio of the raw single-trials, we used a denoising method based on Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD). Next, we used a bootstrap-based method to determine the number of clusters, through a measure called the Stability Index (SI). We then used a clustering algorithm based on a Genetic Algorithm (GA)to define initial cluster centroids for subsequent k-means clustering. Finally, we visualised the clustering results through a scheme based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Results: After validating the pipeline on simulated data, we tested it on data from two experiments – a P300 speller paradigm on a single subject and a language processing study on 25 subjects. Results revealed evidence for the existence of 6 clusters in one experimental condition from the language processing study. Further, a two-way chi-square test revealed an influence of subject on cluster membership.

Lot sizing and furnace scheduling in small foundries

A lot sizing and scheduling problem prevalent in small market-driven foundries is studied. There are two related decision levels: (I the furnace scheduling of metal alloy production, and (2) moulding machine planning which specifies the type and size of production lots. A mixed integer programming (MIP) formulation of the problem is proposed, but is impractical to solve in reasonable computing time for non-small instances. As a result, a faster relax-and-fix (RF) approach is developed that can also be used on a rolling horizon basis where only immediate-term schedules are implemented. As well as a MIP method to solve the basic RF approach, three variants of a local search method are also developed and tested using instances based on the literature. Finally, foundry-based tests with a real-order book resulted in a very substantial reduction of delivery delays and finished inventory, better use of capacity, and much faster schedule definition compared to the foundry`s own practice. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Productivity-Based Approach to LAN Topology Design

Over the useful life of a LAN, network downtimes will have a negative impact on organizational productivity not included in current Network Topological Design (NTD) problems. We propose a new approach to LAN topological design that includes the impact of these productivity losses into the network design, minimizing not only the CAPEX but also the expected cost of unproductiveness attributable to network downtimes over a certain period of network operation.

Nonlinear spectrum effect on the coherent control of molecular systems

This work demonstrates that the detuning of the fs-laser spectrum from the two-photon absorption band of organic materials can be used to reach further control of the two-photon absorption by pulse spectral phase manipulation. We investigate the coherent control of the two-photon absorption in imidazole-thiophene core compounds presenting distinct two-photon absorption spectra. The coherent control, performed using pulse phase shaping and genetic algorithm, exhibited different growth rates for each sample. Such distinct trends were explained by calculating the two-photon absorption probability considering the intrapulse interference mechanism, taking into account the two-photon absorption spectrum of the samples. Our results indicate that tuning the relative position between the nonlinear absorption and the pulse spectrum can be used as a novel strategy to optimize the two-photon absorption in broadband molecular systems. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamic Fuzzy Logic Control of GeneticAlgorithm Probabilities

Genetic algorithms are commonly used to solve combinatorial optimizationproblems. The implementation evolves using genetic operators (crossover, mutation,selection, etc.). Anyway, genetic algorithms like some other methods have parameters(population size, probabilities of crossover and mutation) which need to be tune orchosen.In this paper, our project is based on an existing hybrid genetic algorithmworking on the multiprocessor scheduling problem. We propose a hybrid Fuzzy-Genetic Algorithm (FLGA) approach to solve the multiprocessor scheduling problem.The algorithm consists in adding a fuzzy logic controller to control and tunedynamically different parameters (probabilities of crossover and mutation), in anattempt to improve the algorithm performance. For this purpose, we will design afuzzy logic controller based on fuzzy rules to control the probabilities of crossoverand mutation. Compared with the Standard Genetic Algorithm (SGA), the resultsclearly demonstrate that the FLGA method performs significantly better.

Task assignment optimization in SAP Extended WarehouseManagement

Nowadays in the world of mass consumption there is big demand for distributioncenters of bigger size. Managing such a center is a very complex and difficult taskregarding to the different processes and factors in a usual warehouse when we want tominimize the labor costs. Most of the workers’ working time is spent with travelingbetween source and destination points which cause deadheading. Even if a worker knowsthe structure of a warehouse well and because of that he or she can find the shortest pathbetween two points, it is still not guaranteed that there won’t be long traveling timebetween the locations of two consecutive tasks. We need optimal assignments betweentasks and workers.In the scientific literature Generalized Assignment Problem (GAP) is a wellknownproblem which deals with the assignment of m workers to n tasks consideringseveral constraints. The primary purpose of my thesis project was to choose a heuristics(genetic algorithm, tabu search or ant colony optimization) to be implemented into SAPExtended Warehouse Management (SAP EWM) by with task assignment will be moreeffective between tasks and resources.After system analysis I had to realize that due different constraints and businessdemands only 1:1 assingments are allowed in SAP EWM. Because of that I had to use adifferent and simpler approach – instead of the introduced heuristics – which could gainbetter assignments during the test phase in several cases. In the thesis I described indetails what ware the most important questions and problems which emerged during theplanning of my optimized assignment method.

ANALYSIS & STUDY OF AI TECHNIQUES FORAUTOMATIC CONDITION MONITORING OFRAILWAY TRACK INFRASTRUCTURE : Artificial Intelligence Techniques

Since the last decade the problem of surface inspection has been receiving great attention from the scientific community, the quality control and the maintenance of products are key points in several industrial applications.The railway associations spent much money to check the railway infrastructure. The railway infrastructure is a particular field in which the periodical surface inspection can help the operator to prevent critical situations. The maintenance and monitoring of this infrastructure is an important aspect for railway association.That is why the surface inspection of railway also makes importance to the railroad authority to investigate track components, identify problems and finding out the way that how to solve these problems. In railway industry, usually the problems find in railway sleepers, overhead, fastener, rail head, switching and crossing and in ballast section as well. In this thesis work, I have reviewed some research papers based on AI techniques together with NDT techniques which are able to collect data from the test object without making any damage. The research works which I have reviewed and demonstrated that by adopting the AI based system, it is almost possible to solve all the problems and this system is very much reliable and efficient for diagnose problems of this transportation domain. I have reviewed solutions provided by different companies based on AI techniques, their products and reviewed some white papers provided by some of those companies. AI based techniques likemachine vision, stereo vision, laser based techniques and neural network are used in most cases to solve the problems which are performed by the railway engineers.The problems in railway handled by the AI based techniques performed by NDT approach which is a very broad, interdisciplinary field that plays a critical role in assuring that structural components and systems perform their function in a reliable and cost effective fashion. The NDT approach ensures the uniformity, quality and serviceability of materials without causing any damage of that materials is being tested. This testing methods use some way to test product like, Visual and Optical testing, Radiography, Magnetic particle testing, Ultrasonic testing, Penetrate testing, electro mechanic testing and acoustic emission testing etc. The inspection procedure has done periodically because of better maintenance. This inspection procedure done by the railway engineers manually with the aid of AI based techniques.The main idea of thesis work is to demonstrate how the problems can be reduced of thistransportation area based on the works done by different researchers and companies. And I have also provided some ideas and comments according to those works and trying to provide some proposal to use better inspection method where it is needed.The scope of this thesis work is automatic interpretation of data from NDT, with the goal of detecting flaws accurately and efficiently. AI techniques such as neural networks, machine vision, knowledge-based systems and fuzzy logic were applied to a wide spectrum of problems in this area. Another scope is to provide an insight into possible research methods concerning railway sleeper, fastener, ballast and overhead inspection by automatic interpretation of data.In this thesis work, I have discussed about problems which are arise in railway sleepers,fastener, and overhead and ballasted track. For this reason I have reviewed some research papers related with these areas and demonstrated how their systems works and the results of those systems. After all the demonstrations were taking place of the advantages of using AI techniques in contrast with those manual systems exist previously.This work aims to summarize the findings of a large number of research papers deploying artificial intelligence (AI) techniques for the automatic interpretation of data from nondestructive testing (NDT). Problems in rail transport domain are mainly discussed in this work. The overall work of this paper goes to the inspection of railway sleepers, fastener, ballast and overhead.

Developing Box-Pushing Behaviours Using Evolutionary Robotics

The context of this report and the IRIDIA laboratory are described in the preface. Evolutionary Robotics and the box-pushing task are presented in the introduction.The building of a test system supporting Evolutionary Robotics experiments is then detailed. This system is made of a robot simulator and a Genetic Algorithm. It is used to explore the possibility of evolving box-pushing behaviours. The bootstrapping problem is explained, and a novel approach for dealing with it is proposed, with results presented.Finally, ideas for extending this approach are presented in the conclusion.