997 resultados para Forecast methods


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We compare two popular methods for estimating the power spectrum from short data windows, namely the adaptive multivariate autoregressive (AMVAR) method and the multitaper method. By analyzing a simulated signal (embedded in a background Ornstein-Uhlenbeck noise process) we demonstrate that the AMVAR method performs better at detecting short bursts of oscillations compared to the multitaper method. However, both methods are immune to jitter in the temporal location of the signal. We also show that coherence can still be detected in noisy bivariate time series data by the AMVAR method even if the individual power spectra fail to show any peaks. Finally, using data from two monkeys performing a visuomotor pattern discrimination task, we demonstrate that the AMVAR method is better able to determine the termination of the beta oscillations when compared to the multitaper method.

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Cereal crops can suffer substantial damage if frosts occur at heading. Identification of post-head-emergence frost (PHEF) resistance in cereals poses a number of unique and difficult challenges. Many decades of research have failed to identify genotypes with PHEF resistance that could offer economically significant benefit to growers. Research and breeding gains have been limited by the available screening systems. Using traditional frost screening systems, genotypes that escape frost injury in trials due to spatial temperature differences and/or small differences in phenology can be misidentified as resistant. We believe that by improving techniques to minimize frost escapes, such ofalse-positive' results can be confidently identified and eliminated. Artificial freezing chambers or manipulated natural frost treatments offer many potential advantages but are not yet at the stage where they can be reliably used for frost screening in breeding programmes. Here we describe the development of a novel photoperiod gradient method (PGM) that facilitates screening of genotypes of different phenology under natural field frosts at matched developmental stages. By identifying frost escapes and increasing the efficiency of field screening, the PGM ensures that research effort can be focused on finding genotypes with improved PHEF resistance. To maximize the likelihood of identifying PHEF resistance, we propose that the PGM form part of an integrated strategy to (i) source germplasm;(ii) facilitate high throughput screening; and (iii) permit detailed validation. PGM may also be useful in other studies where either a range of developmental stages and/or synchronized development are desired.

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Multi-species fisheries are complex to manage and the ability to develop an appropriate governance structure is often seriously impeded because trading between sustainability objectives at the species level, economic objectives at the fleet level, and social objectives at the community scale, is complex. Many of these fisheries also tend to have a mix of information, with stock assessments available for some species and almost no information on other species. The fleets themselves comprise fishers from small family enterprises to large vertically integrated businesses. The Queensland trawl fishery in Australia is used as a case study for this kind of fishery. It has the added complexity that a large part of the fishery is within a World Heritage Area, the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park, which is managed by an agency of the Australian Commonwealth Government whereas the fishery itself is managed by the Queensland State Government. A stakeholder elicitation process was used to develop social, governance, economic and ecological objectives, and then weight the relative importance of these. An expert group was used to develop different governance strawmen (or management strategies) and these were assessed by a group of industry stakeholders and experts using multi-criteria decision analysis techniques against the different objectives. One strawman clearly provided the best overall set of outcomes given the multiple objectives, but was not optimal in terms of every objective, demonstrating that even the "best" strawman may be less than perfect. © 2012.

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Modifications of surface materials and their effects on cleanability have important impacts in many fields of activity. In this study the primary aim was to develop radiochemical methods suitable for evaluating cleanability in material research for different environments. Another aim was to investigate the effects of surface modifications on cleanabilitity and surface properties of plastics, ceramics, concrete materials and also their coatings in conditions simulating their typical environments. Several new 51Cr and 14C labelled soils were developed for testing situations. The new radiochemical methods developed were suitable for examining different surface materials and different soil types, providing quantitative information about the amount of soil on surfaces. They also take into account soil soaked into surfaces. The supporting methods colorimetric determination and ATP bioluminescence provided semi-quantitative results. The results from the radiochemical and supporting methods partly correlated with each other. From a material research point of view numerous new materials were evaluated. These included both laboratory-made model materials and commercial products. Increasing the amount of plasticizer decreased the cleanability of poly(vinyl chloride) (PVC) materials. Microstructured surfaces of plastics improved the cleanability of PVC from particle soils, whereas for oil soil microstructuring reduced the cleanability. In the case of glazed ceramic materials, coatings affected the cleanability. The roughness of surfaces correlated with cleanability from particle soils and the cleanability from oil soil correlated with the contact angles. Organic particle soil was removed more efficiently from TiO2-coated ceramic surfaces after UV-radiation than without UV treatment, whereas no effect was observed on the cleanability of oil soil. Coatings improved the cleanability of concrete flooring materials intended for use in animal houses.

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The type A lantibiotic nisin produced by several Lactococcus lactis strains, and one Streptococcus uberis strainis a small antimicrobial peptide that inhibits the growth of a wide range of gram-positive bacteria, such as Bacillus, Clostridium, Listeria and Staphylococcus species. It is nontoxic to humans and used as a food preservative (E234) in more than 50 countries including the EU, the USA, and China. National legislations concerning maximum addition levels of nisin in different foods vary greatly. Therefore, there is a demand for non-laborious and sensitive methods to identify and quantify nisin reliably from different food matrices. The horizontal inhibition assay, based on the inhibitory effect of nisin to Micrococcus luteus is the base for most quantification methods developed so far. However, the sensitivity and accuracy of the agar diffusion method is affected by several parameters. Immunological tests have also been described. Taken into account the sensitivity of immunological methods to interfering substances within sample matrices, and possible cross-reactivities with lantibiotics structurally close to nisin, their usefulness for nisin detection from food samples remains limited. The proteins responsible for nisin biosynthesis, and producer self-immunity are encoded by genes arranged into two inducible operons, nisA/Z/QBTCIPRK and nisFEG, which also contain internal, constitutive promoters PnisI and PnisR. The transmembrane histidine kinase NisK and the response regulator NisR form a two-component signal transduction system, in which NisK autophosphorylates after exposure to extra cellular nisin, and subsequently transfers the phosphate to NisR. The phosphorylated NisR then relays the signal downstream by binding to two regulated promoters in the nisin gene cluster, i.e the nisA/Z/Qand the nisF promoters, thus activating transcription of the structural gene nisA/Z/Q and the downstream genes nisBTCIPRK from the nisA/Z/Q promoter, and the genes nisFEG from the nisF promoter. In this work two novel and highly sensitive nisin bioassays were developed. Both of these quantification methods were based on NisRK mediated, nisin induced Green Fluorescent Protein (GFP) fluorescence. The suitabilities of these assays for quantifica¬tion of nisin from food samples were evaluated in several food matrices. These bioassays had nisin sensitivities in the nanogram or picogram levels. In addition, shelf life of nisin in cooked sausages and retainment of the induction activity of nisin in intestinal chyme (intestinal content) was assessed.

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Eucalyptus argophloia Blakely (Western white gum) has shown potential as a commercial forestry timber species in marginal environments of north-eastern Australia. We measured early pollination success in Eucalyptus argophloia to compare pollination methods, determine the timing of stigma receptivity and compare fresh and stored pollen. Early pollination success was measured by counting pollen tubes in the style of E. argophloia 12 days after pollination. We compared the early pollination success of 1) Artificially Induced Protogyny (AIP), one-stop and three-stop methods of pollination; 2) flowers pollinated at 2 day intervals between 2 days before and 6 days after anthesis and 3) fresh pollen and pollen that had been stored for 9 months. Our results show significantly more pollen tubes from unpollinated AIP and AIP treatments than either the one-stop pollination or three-stop pollination treatments. This indicates that self-pollination occurs in the unpollinated AIP treatment. There was very little pollen tube growth in the one-stop method indicating that the three-stop method is the most suitable for this species. Stigma receptivity in E. argophloia commenced six days after anthesis and no pollen tube growth was observed prior to this. Fresh pollen resulted in pollen tube growth in the style whereas the stored pollen resulted in a total absence of pollen tube growth. We recommend that breeding programs incorporating E. argophloia as a female parent use the three-stop pollination method, and controlled pollination be carried out at least six days after anthesis using fresh pollen.

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Successful healing of long bone fractures is dependent on the mechanical environment created within the fracture, which in turn is dependent on the fixation strategy. Recent literature reports have suggested that locked plating devices are too stiff to reliably promote healing. However, in vitro testing of these devices has been inconsistent in both method of constraint and reported outcomes, making comparisons between studies and the assessment of construct stiffness problematic. Each of the methods previously used in the literature were assessed for their effect on the bending of the sample and concordant stiffness. The choice of outcome measures used in in vitro fracture studies was also assessed. Mechanical testing was conducted on seven hole locked plated constructs in each method for comparison. Based on the assessment of each method the use of spherical bearings, ball joints or similar is suggested at both ends of the sample. The use of near and far cortex movement was found to be more comprehensive and more accurate than traditional centrally calculated inter fragmentary movement values; stiffness was found to be highly susceptible to the accuracy of deformation measurements and constraint method, and should only be used as a within study comparison method. The reported stiffness values of locked plate constructs from in vitro mechanical testing is highly susceptible to testing constraints and output measures, with many standard techniques overestimating the stiffness of the construct. This raises the need for further investigation into the actual mechanical behaviour within the fracture gap of these devices.

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Wild pigs (Sus scrofa) are widespread across many landscapes throughout the world and are considered to be an invasive pest to agriculture and the environment, or conversely a native or desired game species and resource for hunting. Wild pig population monitoring is often required for a variety of management or research objectives, and many methods and analyses for monitoring abundance are available. Here, we describe monitoring methods that have proven or potential applications to wild pig management. We describe the advantages and disadvantages of methods so that potential users can efficiently consider and identify the option(s) best suited to their combination of objectives, circumstances, and resources. This paper offers guidance to wildlife managers, researchers, and stakeholders considering population monitoring of wild pigs and will help ensure that they can fulfill their monitoring objectives while optimizing their use of resources.

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The quantification and characterisation of soil phosphorus (P) is of agricultural and environmental importance and different extraction methods are widely used to asses the bioavailability of P and to characterize soil P reserves. However, the large variety of extractants, pre-treatments and sample preparation procedures complicate the comparison of published results. In order to improve our understanding of the behaviour and cycling of P in soil, it is crucial to know the scientific relevance of the methods used for various purposes. The knowledge of the factors affecting the analytical outcome is a prerequisite for justified interpretation of the results. The aim of this thesis was to study the effects of sample preparation procedures on soil P and to determine the dependence of the recovered P pool on the chemical nature of extractants. Sampling is a critical step in soil testing and sampling strategy is dependent on the land-use history and the purpose of sampling. This study revealed that pre-treatments changed soil properties and air-drying was found to affect soil P, particularly extractable organic P, by disrupting organic matter. This was evidenced by an increase in the water-extractable small-sized (<0.2 µm) P that, at least partly, took place at the expense of the large-sized (>0.2 µm) P. However, freezing induced only insignificant changes and thus, freezing can be taken to be a suitable method for storing soils from the boreal zone that naturally undergo periodic freezing. The results demonstrated that chemical nature of the extractant affects its sensitivity to detect changes in soil P solubility. Buffered extractants obscured the alterations in P solubility induced by pH changes; however, water extraction, though sensitive to physicochemical changes, can be used to reveal short term changes in soil P solubility. As for the organic P, the analysis was found to be sensitive to the sample preparation procedures: filtering may leave a large proportion of extractable organic P undetected, whereas the outcome of centrifugation was found to be affected by the ionic strength of the extractant. Widely used sequential fractionation procedures proved to be able to detect land-use -derived differences in the distribution of P among fractions of different solubilities. However, interpretation of the results from extraction experiments requires better understanding of the biogeochemical function of the recovered P fraction in the P cycle in differently managed soils under dissimilar climatic conditions.

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Fisheries managers are becoming increasingly aware of the need to quantify all forms of harvest, including that by recreational fishers. This need has been driven by both a growing recognition of the potential impact that noncommercial fishers can have on exploited resources and the requirement to allocate catch limits between different sectors of the wider fishing community in many jurisdictions. Marine recreational fishers are rarely required to report any of their activity, and some form of survey technique is usually required to estimate levels of recreational catch and effort. In this review, we describe and discuss studies that have attempted to estimate the nature and extent of recreational harvests of marine fishes in New Zealand and Australia over the past 20 years. We compare studies by method to show how circumstances dictate their application and to highlight recent developments that other researchers may find of use. Although there has been some convergence of approach, we suggest that context is an important consideration, and many of the techniques discussed here have been adapted to suit local conditions and to address recognized sources of bias. Much of this experience, along with novel improvements to existing approaches, have been reported only in "gray" literature because of an emphasis on providing estimates for immediate management purposes. This paper brings much of that work together for the first time, and we discuss how others might benefit from our experience.

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Context. Irregular plagues of house mice cause high production losses in grain crops in Australia. If plagues can be forecast through broad-scale monitoring or model-based prediction, then mice can be proactively controlled by poison baiting. Aims. To predict mouse plagues in grain crops in Queensland and assess the value of broad-scale monitoring. Methods. Regular trapping of mice at the same sites on the Darling Downs in southern Queensland has been undertaken since 1974. This provides an index of abundance over time that can be related to rainfall, crop yield, winter temperature and past mouse abundance. Other sites have been trapped over a shorter time period elsewhere on the Darling Downs and in central Queensland, allowing a comparison of mouse population dynamics and cross-validation of models predicting mouse abundance. Key results. On the regularly trapped 32-km transect on the Darling Downs, damaging mouse densities occur in 50% of years and a plague in 25% of years, with no detectable increase in mean monthly mouse abundance over the past 35 years. High mouse abundance on this transect is not consistently matched by high abundance in the broader area. Annual maximum mouse abundance in autumn–winter can be predicted (R2 = 57%) from spring mouse abundance and autumn–winter rainfall in the previous year. In central Queensland, mouse dynamics contrast with those on the Darling Downs and lack the distinct annual cycle, with peak abundance occurring in any month outside early spring.Onaverage, damaging mouse densities occur in 1 in 3 years and a plague occurs in 1 in 7 years. The dynamics of mouse populations on two transects ~70 km apart were rarely synchronous. Autumn–winter rainfall can indicate mouse abundance in some seasons (R2 = ~52%). Conclusion. Early warning of mouse plague formation in Queensland grain crops from regional models should trigger farm-based monitoring. This can be incorporated with rainfall into a simple model predicting future abundance that will determine any need for mouse control. Implications. A model-based warning of a possible mouse plague can highlight the need for local monitoring of mouse activity, which in turn could trigger poison baiting to prevent further mouse build-up.

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I agree with Costanza and Finkelstein (2015) that it is futile to further invest in the study of generational differences in the work context due to a lack of appropriate theory and methods. The key problem with the generations concept is that splitting continuous variables such as age or time into a few discrete units involves arbitrary cutoffs and atheoretical groupings of individuals (e.g., stating that all people born between the early 1960s and early 1980s belong to Generation X). As noted by methodologists, this procedure leads to a loss of information about individuals and reduced statistical power (MacCallum, Zhang, Preacher, & Rucker, 2002). Due to these conceptual and methodological limitations, I regard it as very difficult if not impossible to develop a “comprehensive theory of generations” (Costanza & Finkelstein, p. 20) and to rigorously examine generational differences at work in empirical studies.

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Global cereal production will need to increase by 50% to 70% to feed a world population of about 9 billion by 2050. This intensification is forecast to occur mostly in subtropical regions, where warm and humid conditions can promote high N2O losses from cropped soils. To secure high crop production without exacerbating N2O emissions, new nitrogen (N) fertiliser management strategies are necessary. This one-year study evaluated the efficacy of a nitrification inhibitor (3,4-dimethylpyrazole phosphate—DMPP) and different N fertiliser rates to reduce N2O emissions in a wheat–maize rotation in subtropical Australia. Annual N2O emissions were monitored using a fully automated greenhouse gas measuring system. Four treatments were fertilized with different rates of urea, including a control (40 kg-N ha−1 year−1), a conventional N fertiliser rate adjusted on estimated residual soil N (120 kg-N ha−1 year−1), a conventional N fertiliser rate (240 kg-N ha−1 year−1) and a conventional N fertiliser rate (240 kg-N ha−1 year−1) with nitrification inhibitor (DMPP) applied at top dressing. The maize season was by far the main contributor to annual N2O emissions due to the high soil moisture and temperature conditions, as well as the elevated N rates applied. Annual N2O emissions in the four treatments amounted to 0.49, 0.84, 2.02 and 0.74 kg N2O–N ha−1 year−1, respectively, and corresponded to emission factors of 0.29%, 0.39%, 0.69% and 0.16% of total N applied. Halving the annual conventional N fertiliser rate in the adjusted N treatment led to N2O emissions comparable to the DMPP treatment but extensively penalised maize yield. The application of DMPP produced a significant reduction in N2O emissions only in the maize season. The use of DMPP with urea at the conventional N rate reduced annual N2O emissions by more than 60% but did not affect crop yields. The results of this study indicate that: (i) future strategies aimed at securing subtropical cereal production without increasing N2O emissions should focus on the fertilisation of the summer crop; (ii) adjusting conventional N fertiliser rates on estimated residual soil N is an effective practice to reduce N2O emissions but can lead to substantial yield losses if the residual soil N is not assessed correctly; (iii) the application of DMPP is a feasible strategy to reduce annual N2O emissions from sub-tropical wheat–maize rotations. However, at the N rates tested in this study DMPP urea did not increase crop yields, making it impossible to recoup extra costs associated with this fertiliser. The findings of this study will support farmers and policy makers to define effective fertilisation strategies to reduce N2O emissions from subtropical cereal cropping systems while maintaining high crop productivity. More research is needed to assess the use of DMPP urea in terms of reducing conventional N fertiliser rates and subsequently enable a decrease of fertilisation costs and a further abatement of fertiliser-induced N2O emissions.

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Historical stocking methods of continuous, season-long grazing of pastures with little account of growing conditions have caused some degradation within grazed landscapes in northern Australia. Alternative stocking methods have been implemented to address this degradation and raise the productivity and profitability of the principal livestock, cattle. Because information comparing stocking methods is limited, an evaluation was undertaken to quantify the effects of stocking methods on pastures, soils and grazing capacity. The approach was to monitor existing stocking methods on nine commercial beef properties in north and south Queensland. Environments included native and exotic pastures and eucalypt (lighter soil) and brigalow (heavier soil) land types. Breeding and growing cattle were grazed under each method. The owners/managers, formally trained in pasture and grazing management, made all management decisions affecting the study sites. Three stocking methods were compared: continuous (with rest), extensive rotation and intensive rotation (commonly referred to as 'cell grazing'). There were two or three stocking methods examined on each property: in total 21 methods (seven continuous, six extensive rotations and eight intensive rotations) were monitored over 74 paddocks, between 2006 and 2009. Pasture and soil surface measurements were made in the autumns of 2006, 2007 and 2009, while the paddock grazing was analysed from property records for the period from 2006 to 2009. The first 2 years had drought conditions (rainfall average 3.4 decile) but were followed by 2 years of above-average rainfall. There were no consistent differences between stocking methods across all sites over the 4 years for herbage mass, plant species composition, total and litter cover, or landscape function analysis (LFA) indices. There were large responses to rainfall in the last 2 years with mean herbage mass in the autumn increasing from 1970 kg DM ha(-1) in 2006-07 to 3830 kg DM ha(-1) in 2009. Over the same period, ground and litter cover and LFA indices increased. Across all sites and 4 years, mean grazing capacity was similar for the three stocking methods. There were, however, significant differences in grazing capacity between stocking methods at four sites but these differences were not consistent between stocking methods or sites. Both the continuous and intensive rotation methods supported the highest average annual grazing capacity at different sites. The results suggest that cattle producers can obtain similar ecological responses and carry similar numbers of livestock under any of the three stocking methods.