Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

The effect of ball milling on the melting behavior of Sn-Cu-Ag eutectic alloy

Sn-Ag-Cu (SAC) solder alloys are the best Pb free alternative for electronic industry. Since their introduction, efforts are made to improve their efficacies by tuning the processing and composition to achieve lower melting point and better wettability. Nanostructured alloys with large boundary content are known to depress the melting points of metals and alloys. In this article we explore this possibility by processing prealloyed SAC alloys close to SAC305 composition (Sn-3wt%Ag-0.5wt%Cu) by mechanical milling which results in the formation of nanostructured alloys. Pulverisette ball mill (P7) and Vibratory ball mills are used to carry out the milling of the powders at room temperature and at lower temperatures (-104 A degrees C), respectively. We report a relatively smaller depression of melting point ranging up to 5 A degrees C with respect to original alloys. The minimum grain sizes achieved and the depression of melting point are similar for both room temperature and low-temperature processed samples. An attempt has been made to rationalize the observations in terms of the basic processes occurring during the milling.

Impact of Grazing, Fire and Extraction on the Bamboo (Dendrocalamus-Strictus and Bambusa-Arundinacea) Populations of Karnataka

Dendrocalamus strictus and Bambusa arundinacea are monocarpic, gregariously flowering species of bamboo, common in the deciduous forests of the State of Karnataka in India. Their populations have significantly declined, especially since the last flowering. This decline parelleis increasing incidence of grazing, fire and extraction in recent decades. Results of an experiment in which the intensities of grazing and fire were varied, indicate that while grazing significantly depresses the survival of seedlings and the recruitment of new eulms of bamboo clumps, fire appeared to enhance seedling survival, presumably by reducing competition of lass fire-resistant species. New shoots of bamboo are destroyed by insects and a variety of herbivorous mammals. In areas of intense herbivore pressure, a bamboo clump initiates the production of a much larger number of new culrm, but results in many fewer and shorter intact culms. Extraction renders the new shoots more susceptible to herbivore pressure by removal of the protective covering of branches at the base of a bamboo clump. Hence, regular and extensive extraction by the paper mills in conjuction with intense grazing pressure strongly depresses the addition of new culms to bamboo clumps. Regulation of grazing in the forest by domestic livestock along with maintenance of the cover at the base of the clumps by extracting the culms at a higher level should reduce the rate of decline of the bamboo stocks.

Shared common variants in prostate cancer and blood lipids

Background Epidemiological and clinical studies suggest comorbidity between prostate cancer (PCA) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors. However, the relationship between these two phenotypes is still not well understood. Here we sought to identify shared genetic loci between PCA and CVD risk factors. Methods We applied a genetic epidemiology method based on conjunction false discovery rate (FDR) that combines summary statistics from different genome-wide association studies (GWAS), and allows identification of genetic overlap between two phenotypes. We evaluated summary statistics from large, multi-centre GWA studies of PCA (n = 50 000) and CVD risk factors (n = 200 000) [triglycerides (TG), low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, waist-hip ratio and type 2 diabetes (T2D)]. Enrichment of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with PCA and CVD risk factors was assessed with conditional quantile-quantile plots and the Anderson-Darling test. Moreover, we pinpointed shared loci using conjunction FDR. Results We found the strongest enrichment of P-values in PCA was conditional on LDL and conditional on TG. In contrast, we found only weak enrichment conditional on HDL or conditional on the other traits investigated. Conjunction FDR identified altogether 17 loci; 10 loci were associated with PCA and LDL, 3 loci were associated with PCA and TG and additionally 4 loci were associated with PCA, LDL and TG jointly (conjunction FDR < 0.01). For T2D, we detected one locus adjacent to HNF1B. Conclusions We found polygenic overlap between PCA predisposition and blood lipids, in particular LDL and TG, and identified 17 pleiotropic gene loci between PCA and LDL, and PCA and TG, respectively. These findings provide novel pathobiological insights and may have implications for trials using targeting lipid-lowering agents in a prevention or cancer setting.

'Work it out': Evaluation of a chronic condition self-management program for urban Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people with or at risk of cardiovascular disease

This thesis evaluates a chronic condition self-management program for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in urban south-east Queensland who have or are at risk of cardiovascular disease. Outcomes showed short-term improvements for some anthropometry measures which could be a trend for improvement in other anthropometry indicators over the longer term. The program was of particular benefit for participants who had several social and emotional wellbeing conditions. The use of an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander conceptual framework was critical in undertaking culturally competent quantitative research in this project.

Growth and Carcase Characters of Progeny from Caprine Feral Does Mated to Boer or Feral Bucks in Western Queensland

In recent years significant numbers of Australian goats have been harvested from the feral population to supply a strong demand for export of meat. In addition large numbers of feral does have been domesticated to increase breeding herds in western Queensland. Introduction of the Boer breed to Australia as a specialist meat goat may provide a genetic means for improving the productive performance of the Australian feral. The present paper reports growth and carcase attributes of feral and Boer x feral genotypes born in 1998 and birthweight of those born in 1999. Animal production for a consuming world : proceedings of 9th Congress of the Asian-Australasian Association of Animal Production Societies [AAAP] and 23rd Biennial Conference of the Australian Society of Animal Production [ASAP] and 17th Annual Symposium of the University of Sydney, Dairy Research Foundation, [DRF]. 2-7 July 2000, Sydney, Australia.

Reproductive Performance of Caprine Feral Does Mated to Boer or Feral Bucks in Semi-Arid Queensland

A strong world demand and current firm prices for goat meat provides opportunities for some wool/beef production enterprises in western Queensland to increase farm viability through diversification. In particular, there is rising interest in the use of Boer goats to improve productive performance of the Australian feral goat. Pastoral graziers have noted the high prolificacy of feral goats grazed in semi-arid areas, but there is no information on the breeding ability of feral does mated to Boer bucks. Animal production for a consuming world : proceedings of 9th Congress of the Asian-Australasian Association of Animal Production Societies [AAAP] and 23rd Biennial Conference of the Australian Society of Animal Production [ASAP] and 17th Annual Symposium of the University of Sydney, Dairy Research Foundation, [DRF]. 2-7 July 2000, Sydney, Australia.

Influence of Measured Characteristics on Price Received for Merino Wool from the Traprock Area of Southern Queensland

In this study of a commercial wool clip sold in the years 1991/92-1996/97, the effect of wool characteristics, (staple length, staple strength, fibre diameter, position of break, vegetable matter, hauteur, yield and coefficient of variation of staple length) on price was explored together with their effect on the ratio of price received per lot to the average weekly price (1994/95 basis) for clean wool of the same fibre diameter. Fibre diameter and where the point of break occurred had the most effect on price. As hauteur, staple length and yield increased, so did the price ratio but it decreased as the percentage of vegetable matter and the coefficient of variation of the staple length increased. The ratio of proceeds if all wool had been sold at average weekly market price, to proceeds if all wool had been 21µm or less, indicated little financial advantage over the six-year period as most sale lots were under 22µm. To raise the proceeds of sale above the proceeds estimated using average market price for each lot, the analyses suggested that hauteur, staple length and its coefficient of variation, could be considered, in addition to fibre diameter, when sourcing wethers for purchase. Animal production for a consuming world : proceedings of 9th Congress of the Asian-Australasian Association of Animal Production Societies [AAAP] and 23rd Biennial Conference of the Australian Society of Animal Production [ASAP] and 17th Annual Symposium of the University of Sydney, Dairy Research Foundation, [DRF]. 2-7 July 2000, Sydney, Australia.

The reliability of supply of feed grains in the northern region

Reliability of supply of feed grain has become a high priority issue for industry in the northern region. Expansion by major intensive livestock and industrial users of grain, combined with high inter-annual variability in seasonal conditions, has generated concern in the industry about reliability of supply. This paper reports on a modelling study undertaken to analyse the reliability of supply of feed grain in the northern region. Feed grain demand was calculated for major industries (cattle feedlots, pigs, poultry, dairy) based on their current size and rate of grain usage. Current demand was estimated to be 2.8Mt. With the development of new industrial users (ethanol) and by projecting the current growth rate of the various intensive livestock industries, it was estimated that demand would grow to 3.6Mt in three years time. Feed grain supply was estimated using shire scale yield prediction models for wheat and sorghum that had been calibrated against recent ABS production data. Other crops that contribute to a lesser extent to the total feed grain pool (barley, maize) were included by considering their production relative to the major winter and summer grains, with estimates based on available production records. This modelling approach allowed simulation of a 101-year time series of yield that showed the extent of the impact of inter-annual climate variability on yield levels. Production estimates were developed from this yield time series by including planted crop area. Area planted data were obtained from ABS and ABARE records. Total production amounts were adjusted to allow for any export and end uses that were not feed grain (flour, malt etc). The median feed grain supply for an average area planted was about 3.1Mt, but this varied greatly from year to year depending on seasonal conditions and area planted. These estimates indicated that supply would not meet current demand in about 30% of years if a median area crop were planted. Two thirds of the years with a supply shortfall were El Nino years. This proportion of years was halved (i.e. 15%) if the area planted increased to that associated with the best 10% of years. Should demand grow as projected in this study, there would be few years where it could be met if a median crop area was planted. With area planted similar to the best 10% of years, there would still be a shortfall in nearly 50% of all years (and 80% of El Nino years). The implications of these results on supply/demand and risk management and investment in research and development are briefly discussed.

Hydrodynamics from the D1-brane

We study the hydrodynamic properties of strongly coupled SU(N) Yang-Mills theory of the D1-brane at finite temperature in the framework of gauge/gravity duality. The only non-trivial viscous transport coefficient in 1+1 dimensions is the bulk viscosity. We evaluate the bulk viscosity by isolating the quasi-normal mode corresponding to the sound channel for the gravitational background of the D1-brane. We find that the ratio of the bulk viscosity to the entropy density to be 1/4 pi. This ratio continues to be 1/4 pi also in the regime when the D1-brane Yang-Mills theory is dual to the gravitational background of the fundamental string. Our analysis shows that this ratio is equal to 1/4 pi for a class of gravitational backgrounds dual to field theories in 1+1 dimensions obtained by considering D1-branes at cones over Sasaki-Einstein 7-manifolds.

Apparent digestibility of some nutrient sources by juvenile mud crab, Scylla serrata (Forskal 1775)

As part of preliminary work aimed at the development of a formulated diet for the mud crab, Scylla serrata, an experiment was conducted with juvenile mud crabs (95.65±2.17 g) to determine apparent digestibility coefficients (ADC) for cellulose, fish meal, shrimp meal, blood meal, soybean meal, wheat flour and cod liver oil. Apparent digestibility coefficients for dry matter (ADCdm), energy (ADCenergy) and protein (ADC protein) were in the ranges 70.0-95.7%, 77.4-97.1% and 57.7-97.9% respectively. Soybean meal had the highest ADCdm and wheat flour had the lowest value (P<0.05), while the ADCdm for fish meal, blood meal and shrimp meal were not different (P?0.05). Similarly, soybean meal had the same ADCenergy as that of fish meal, but higher than those of cod liver oil, blood meal and shrimp meal (P<0.05). Moreover, the ADC protein for blood meal or shrimp meal were not significantly different from fish meal (P?0.05); nevertheless, they were lower than that of soybean meal and higher than that of wheat flour (P<0.05). Of significant interest was the ADCdm (78.0%) and ADCenergy (77.4%) for cellulose, which indicates that plant-based nutrient sources may well be a useful component of formulated diets for mud crabs.

A near Optimal Cane Rail Scheduler under Limited and Unlimited Capacity Constraints

Australia is the world’s third largest exporter of raw sugar after Brazil and Thailand, with around $2.0 billion in export earnings. Transport systems play a vital role in the raw sugar production process by transporting the sugarcane crop between farms and mills. In 2013, 87 per cent of sugarcane was transported to mills by cane railway. The total cost of sugarcane transport operations is very high. Over 35% of the total cost of sugarcane production in Australia is incurred in cane transport. A cane railway network mainly involves single track sections and multiple track sections used as passing loops or sidings. The cane railway system performs two main tasks: delivering empty bins from the mill to the sidings for filling by harvesters; and collecting the full bins of cane from the sidings and transporting them to the mill. A typical locomotive run involves an empty train (locomotive and empty bins) departing from the mill, traversing some track sections and delivering bins at specified sidings. The locomotive then, returns to the mill, traversing the same track sections in reverse order, collecting full bins along the way. In practice, a single track section can be occupied by only one train at a time, while more than one train can use a passing loop (parallel sections) at a time. The sugarcane transport system is a complex system that includes a large number of variables and elements. These elements work together to achieve the main system objectives of satisfying both mill and harvester requirements and improving the efficiency of the system in terms of low overall costs. These costs include delay, congestion, operating and maintenance costs. An effective cane rail scheduler will assist the traffic officers at the mill to keep a continuous supply of empty bins to harvesters and full bins to the mill with a minimum cost. This paper addresses the cane rail scheduling problem under rail siding capacity constraints where limited and unlimited siding capacities were investigated with different numbers of trains and different train speeds. The total operating time as a function of the number of trains, train shifts and a limited number of cane bins have been calculated for the different siding capacity constraints. A mathematical programming approach has been used to develop a new scheduler for the cane rail transport system under limited and unlimited constraints. The new scheduler aims to reduce the total costs associated with the cane rail transport system that are a function of the number of bins and total operating costs. The proposed metaheuristic techniques have been used to find near optimal solutions of the cane rail scheduling problem and provide different possible solutions to avoid being stuck in local optima. A numerical investigation and sensitivity analysis study is presented to demonstrate that high quality solutions for large scale cane rail scheduling problems are obtainable in a reasonable time. Keywords: Cane railway, mathematical programming, capacity, metaheuristics

Corporate fraud culture: Re-examining the corporate governance and performance relation

We analyse the corporate governance and performance relation, when conditioning on corporate fraud, for fraud firms during 2000 – 2007. Fraud firms are identified as either self- reported fraud events, or subject to regulatory investigation. We use the inverse Mills ratio procedure to account for firms' (unobservable) fraud culture in the dynamic system GMM model of the performance- governance relation. We find that corporate governance is an endogenously determined characteristic that has no causal impact on firm performance when conditioning on fraud. Fraud is a significant regulatory event but its overall economic impact at the firm level is highly variable.

Field evaluation of spinosad as a grain protectant for stored wheat in Australia: efficacy against Rhyzopertha dominica (F.) and fate of residues in whole wheat and milling fractions

The potential of spinosad as a grain protectant for the lesser grain borer, Rhyzopertha dominica, was investigated in a silo-scale trial on wheat stored in Victoria, Australia. Rhyzopertha dominica is a serious pest of stored grain, and its resistance to protectants and the fumigant phosphine is becoming more common. This trial follows earlier laboratory research showing that spinosad may be a useful pest management option for this species. Wheat (300 t) from the 2005 harvest was treated with spinosad 0.96 mg/kg plus chlorpyrifos-methyl 10 mg/kg in March 2006, and samples were collected at intervals during 7.5 month storage to determine efficacy and residues in wheat and milling fractions. Chlorpyrifos-methyl is already registered in Australia for control of several other pest species, and its low potency against R. dominica was confirmed in laboratory-treated wheat. Grain moisture content was stable at about 10%, but grain temperature ranged from 29.3°C in March to 14.0°C in August. Bioassays of all treated wheat samples over 7.5 months resulted in 100% adult mortality after 2 weeks exposure and no live progeny were produced. In addition, no live grain insects were detected during outload sampling after a 9 month storage. Spinosad and chlorpyrifos-methyl residues tended to decline during storage, and residues were higher in the bran layer than in either wholemeal or white flour. This field trial confirmed that spinosad was effective as a grain protectant targeting R. dominica.