Insurance policy made to Henry Nelles of Grimsby covering a property in Grimsby, Upper Canada

Insurance policy made to Henry Nelles of Grimsby covering a property in Grimsby, Upper Canada from the Phoenix Fire Office of Montreal, July 15, 1831.

Deriving global flood hazard maps of fluvial floods through a physical model cascade

Global flood hazard maps can be used in the assessment of flood risk in a number of different applications, including (re)insurance and large scale flood preparedness. Such global hazard maps can be generated using large scale physically based models of rainfall-runoff and river routing, when used in conjunction with a number of post-processing methods. In this study, the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) land surface model is coupled to ERA-Interim reanalysis meteorological forcing data, and resultant runoff is passed to a river routing algorithm which simulates floodplains and flood flow across the global land area. The global hazard map is based on a 30 yr (1979–2010) simulation period. A Gumbel distribution is fitted to the annual maxima flows to derive a number of flood return periods. The return periods are calculated initially for a 25×25 km grid, which is then reprojected onto a 1×1 km grid to derive maps of higher resolution and estimate flooded fractional area for the individual 25×25 km cells. Several global and regional maps of flood return periods ranging from 2 to 500 yr are presented. The results compare reasonably to a benchmark data set of global flood hazard. The developed methodology can be applied to other datasets on a global or regional scale.

Changes in fire regimes since the Last Glacial Maximum: an assessment based on a global synthesis and analysis of charcoal data

Fire activity has varied globally and continuously since the last glacial maximum (LGM) in response to long-term changes in global climate and shorter-term regional changes in climate, vegetation, and human land use. We have synthesized sedimentary charcoal records of biomass burning since the LGM and present global maps showing changes in fire activity for time slices during the past 21,000 years (as differences in charcoal accumulation values compared to pre-industrial). There is strong broad-scale coherence in fire activity after the LGM, but spatial heterogeneity in the signals increases thereafter. In North America, Europe and southern South America, charcoal records indicate less-than-present fire activity during the deglacial period, from 21,000 to ∼11,000 cal yr BP. In contrast, the tropical latitudes of South America and Africa show greater-than-present fire activity from ∼19,000 to ∼17,000 cal yr BP and most sites from Indochina and Australia show greater-than-present fire activity from 16,000 to ∼13,000 cal yr BP. Many sites indicate greater-than-present or near-present activity during the Holocene with the exception of eastern North America and eastern Asia from 8,000 to ∼3,000 cal yr BP, Indonesia and Australia from 11,000 to 4,000 cal yr BP, and southern South America from 6,000 to 3,000 cal yr BP where fire activity was less than present. Regional coherence in the patterns of change in fire activity was evident throughout the post-glacial period. These complex patterns can largely be explained in terms of large-scale climate controls modulated by local changes in vegetation and fuel load

Vegetation history, human impact and climate change during prehistory: an island perspective of the isles of Tiree, Coll and north-west Mull

Results of extensive site reconnaissance on the Isles of Tiree, Coll and north-west Mull, Inner Hebrides are presented. Pollen-stratigraphic records were compiled from a profile from Glen Aros, north-west Mull and from two profiles on Coll located at Loch an t-Sagairt and Caolas an Eilean. Quantification of microscopic charcoal provided records that were used to facilitate a preliminary evaluation of the causal driving mechanisms of vegetation change. Bayesian modelling of radiocarbon dates was used to construct preliminary chronological frameworks for these records. Basal sedimentary deposits at Glen Aros contain pollen records that correspond with vegetation succession typical of the early Holocene dating to c. 11,370 cal BP. Woodland development is a key feature of the pollen records dating to the early Holocene, while records from Loch an t-Sagairt show that blanket mire communities were widespread in north-west Coll by c. 9800 cal BP. The Corylus-rise is dated to c. 10,710 cal BP at Glen Aros and c. 9905 cal BP at Loch an t-Sagairt, with records indicating extensive cover of hazel woodland with birch. All of the major arboreal taxa were recorded, though Quercus and Ulmus were nowhere widespread. Analysis of wood charcoal remains from a Mesolithic site at Fiskary Bay, Coll indicate that Salix and Populus are likely to be under-represented in the pollen records. Reconstructed isopoll maps appear to underplay the importance of alder in western Scotland during the mid-Holocene. Alder-rise expansions in microscopic charcoal dating to c. 7300 cal BP at Glen Aros and c. 6510 to 5830 cal BP on Coll provide records of significance to the issue of human-induced burning related to the expansion of alder in Britain. Increasing frequencies in microscopic charcoal are correlated with mid-Holocene records of increasing aridity in western Scotland after c. 7490 cal BP at Glen Aros, 6760 cal BP at Loch an t-Sagairt and 6590 cal BP at Caolas an Eilean, while several phases of increasing bog surface wetness were detected in the Loch an t-Sagairt archive during the Holocene. At least five phases of small-scale woodland disturbance during the Mesolithic period were identified in the Glen Aros profile dating to c. 11,650 cal BP, 9300 cal BP, 7840 cal BP, 7040 cal BP and 6100 cal BP. The timing of the third phase is coincident with evidence of Mesolithic settlement at Creit Dhu, north-west Mull. Three phases of small-scale woodland disturbance were detected at Loch an t-Sagairt dating to c. 9270 cal BP, 8770 cal BP and 8270 cal BP, all of which overlap chronologically with evidence of Mesolithic activity at Fiskary Bay, Coll. A number of these episodes are aligned chronologically with phases of Holocene climate variability such as the 8.2 K event.

Spatial-temporal distribution of fire-protected savanna physiognomies in Southeastern Brazil

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Fire Frequency and the Vegetative Mosaic of a Spruce-Fir Forest in Northern Utah

Fire scar and vegetative analysis were used to construct a fire history for the Engelmann spruce/subalpine fir (Picea engelmannii/Abies lasiocarpa) vegetation type of the Utah State University (USU) T. W Daniel Experimental Forest. Three distinct periods of fire frequency were established-presettlement (1700-1855), settlement (1856-1909), and suppression (1910-1990). Mean fire interval (MFI) decreased during the settlement period and greatly increased during the suppression era. The difference was attributed to the influx of ignition sources during the settlement of nearby Cache Valley, located 40 km to the west. Logging and livestock grazing appear to have led to the reduced MFI, which in turn worked as a factor to create the vegetative mosaic now observed on the study area. The increase in MFI during the suppression era permitted the advancement of shade-tolerant species in the understory of the shade-intolerant lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) and quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides). Continued suppression of disturbance from wildfire will allow the lodgepole pine cover type, which experienced the lowest MFI during the settlement period, to be further invaded by shade-tolerant species, decreasing spatial stand diversity and increasing the risk of more intense fires.

Polar foliations and isoparametric maps

A singular Riemannian foliation F on a complete Riemannian manifold M is called a polar foliation if, for each regular point p, there is an immersed submanifold Sigma, called section, that passes through p and that meets all the leaves and always perpendicularly. A typical example of a polar foliation is the partition of M into the orbits of a polar action, i.e., an isometric action with sections. In this article we prove that the leaves of H : M -> Sigma, coincide with the level sets of a smooth map H: M -> Sigma, if M is simply connected. In particular, the orbits of a polar action on a simply connected space are level sets of an isoparametric map. This result extends previous results due to the author and Gorodski, Heintze, Liu and Olmos, Carter and West, and Terng.

STRUCTURE AND DYNAMICS: THE TRANSITION FROM NONEQUILIBRIUM TO EQUILIBRIUM IN INTEGRATE-AND-FIRE DYNAMICS

The transient and equilibrium properties of dynamics unfolding in complex systems can depend critically on specific topological features of the underlying interconnections. In this work, we investigate such a relationship with respect to the integrate-and-fire dynamics emanating from a source node and an extended network model that allows control of the small-world feature as well as the length of the long-range connections. A systematic approach to investigate the local and global correlations between structural and dynamical features of the networks was adopted that involved extensive simulations (one and a half million cases) so as to obtain two-dimensional correlation maps. Smooth, but diverse surfaces of correlation values were obtained in all cases. Regarding the global cases, it has been verified that the onset avalanche time (but not its intensity) can be accurately predicted from the structural features within specific regions of the map (i.e. networks with specific structural properties). The analysis at local level revealed that the dynamical features before the avalanches can also be accurately predicted from structural features. This is not possible for the dynamical features after the avalanches take place. This is so because the overall topology of the network predominates over the local topology around the source at the stationary state.

Atlantic hurricanes and associated insurance loss potentials in future climate scenarios: limitations of high-resolution AGCM simulations

Potential future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics are among the more serious regional threats of global climate change. Therefore, a better understanding of how anthropogenic climate change may affect TCs and how these changes translate in socio-economic impacts is required. Here, we apply a TC detection and tracking method that was developed for ERA-40 data to time-slice experiments of two atmospheric general circulation models, namely the fifth version of the European Centre model of Hamburg model (MPI, Hamburg, Germany, T213) and the Japan Meteorological Agency/ Meteorological research Institute model (MRI, Tsukuba city, Japan, TL959). For each model, two climate simulations are available: a control simulation for present-day conditions to evaluate the model against observations, and a scenario simulation to assess future changes. The evaluation of the control simulations shows that the number of intense storms is underestimated due to the model resolution. To overcome this deficiency, simulated cyclone intensities are scaled to the best track data leading to a better representation of the TC intensities. Both models project an increased number of major hurricanes and modified trajectories in their scenario simulations. These changes have an effect on the projected loss potentials. However, these state-of-the-art models still yield contradicting results, and therefore they are not yet suitable to provide robust estimates of losses due to uncertainties in simulated hurricane intensity, location and frequency.

Verbalization of Dependencies Between Concepts Built Through Fuzzy Cognitive Maps

The new computing paradigm known as cognitive computing attempts to imitate the human capabilities of learning, problem solving, and considering things in context. To do so, an application (a cognitive system) must learn from its environment (e.g., by interacting with various interfaces). These interfaces can run the gamut from sensors to humans to databases. Accessing data through such interfaces allows the system to conduct cognitive tasks that can support humans in decision-making or problem-solving processes. Cognitive systems can be integrated into various domains (e.g., medicine or insurance). For example, a cognitive system in cities can collect data, can learn from various data sources and can then attempt to connect these sources to provide real time optimizations of subsystems within the city (e.g., the transportation system). In this study, we provide a methodology for integrating a cognitive system that allows data to be verbalized, making the causalities and hypotheses generated from the cognitive system more understandable to humans. We abstract a city subsystem—passenger flow for a taxi company—by applying fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs). FCMs can be used as a mathematical tool for modeling complex systems built by directed graphs with concepts (e.g., policies, events, and/or domains) as nodes and causalities as edges. As a verbalization technique we introduce the restriction-centered theory of reasoning (RCT). RCT addresses the imprecision inherent in language by introducing restrictions. Using this underlying combinatorial design, our approach can handle large data sets from complex systems and make the output understandable to humans.

Al Fashir: Darfur: West Sudan Topographic Field Map Sheet 2

The present map sheet is one of six field maps of the Darfur Map Series Release II (1:250'000). The maps and the geodatabase were preparded by the Centre for Development and Environment (CDE) of the University of Berne with funding from the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs. The map is being released as a technical contribution to support the humanitarian, peace-keeping and reconstruction efforts in Darfur, Western Sudan.

Al Geneina: Darfur. West Sudan Topographic Field Map Sheet 3

The present map sheet is one of six field maps of the Darfur Map Series Release II (1:250'000). The maps and the geodatabase were preparded by the Centre for Development and Environment (CDE) of the University of Berne with funding from the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs. The map is being released as a technical contribution to support the humanitarian, peace-keeping and reconstruction efforts in Darfur, Western Sudan.

Buram: Darfur: West Sudan Topographic Field Map Sheet 6

The present map sheet is one of six field maps of the Darfur Map Series Release II (1:250'000). The maps and the geodatabase were preparded by the Centre for Development and Environment (CDE) of the University of Berne with funding from the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs. The map is being released as a technical contribution to support the humanitarian, peace-keeping and reconstruction efforts in Darfur, Western Sudan.

Hajar Banda: Darfur: West Sudan Topographic Field Map Sheet 5

The present map sheet is one of six field maps of the Darfur Map Series Release II (1:250'000). The maps and the geodatabase were preparded by the Centre for Development and Environment (CDE) of the University of Berne with funding from the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs. The map is being released as a technical contribution to support the humanitarian, peace-keeping and reconstruction efforts in Darfur, Western Sudan.

Kulbus: Darfur: West Sudan Topographical Field Map Sheet 1

The present map sheet is one of six field maps of the Darfur Map Series Release II (1:250'000). The maps and the geodatabase were preparded by the Centre for Development and Environment (CDE) of the University of Berne with funding from the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs. The map is being released as a technical contribution to support the humanitarian, peace-keeping and reconstruction efforts in Darfur, Western Sudan.