Crises and growth: A re-evaluation

We address the question of whether growth and welfare can be higher in crisis prone economies. First, we show that there is a robust empirical link between per-capita GDP growth and negative skewness of credit growth across countries with active financial markets. That is, countries that have experienced occasional crises have grown on average faster than countries with smooth credit conditions. We then present a two-sector endogenous growth model in which financial crises can occur, and analyze the relationship between financial fragility and growth. The underlying credit market imperfections generateborrowing constraints, bottlenecks and low growth. We show that under certain conditions endogenous real exchange rate risk arises and firms find it optimal to take on credit risk in the form of currency mismatch. Along such a risky path average growth is higher, but self-fulfilling crises occur occasionally. Furthermore, we establish conditions under which the adoption of credit risk is welfare improving and brings the allocation nearer to the Pareto optimal level. The design of the model is motivated by several features of recent crises: credit risk in the form of foreign currency denominated debt; costly crises that generate firesales and widespread bankruptcies; and asymmetric sectorial responses, wherethe nontradables sector falls more than the tradables sector in the wake of crises.

Endogenous policy leads to inefficient risk sharing

We analyze risk sharing and fiscal spending in a two-region model withcomplete markets. Fiscal policy determines tax rates for each state ofnature. When fiscal policy is decentralized, it can be used to affect prices of securities. To manipulate prices to their beneffit, regionschoose pro-cyclical fiscal spending. This leads to incomplete risk sharing,despite the existence of complete markets and the absence of aggregaterisk. When a fiscal union centralizes fiscal policy, securities pricescan no longer be manipulated and complete risk sharing ensues. If regionsare homogeneous, median income residents of both regions prefer the fiscalunion. If they are heterogeneous, the median resident of the rich regionprefers the decentralized setting.

How competition controls team production: The case of fishing firms

Under team production, those who monitor individual productivity areusually the only ones compensated with a residual that varies withthe performance of the team. This pattern is efficient, as is shownby the prevalence of conventional firms, except for small teams andwhen specialized monitoring is ineffective. Profit sharing in repeatedteam production induces all team members to take disciplinary actionagainst underperformers through switching and separation decisions,however. Such action provides effective self-enforcemnt when themarkets for team members are competitive, even for large teams usingspecialized monitoring. The traditional share system of fishing firmsshows that for this competition to provide powerful enough incentivesthe costs of switching teams and measuring team productivity must bebellow. Risk allocation may constrain the organizational designdefined by the use of a share system. It does not account for itsexistence, however.

R&D cooperation and spillovers: Some empirical evidence

This paper provides some first empirical evidence on the relationshipbetween R&D spillovers and R&D cooperation. The results suggest disentangling different aspects of know-how flows. Firms which rate incoming spillovers more importantly and who can limit outgoing spillovers by a more effective protection of know-how, are more likely to cooperate in R&D. Our analysis also finds that cooperating firms have higher incoming spillovers and higher protection of know-how, indicating that cooperation may serve as a vehicle to manage information flows. Our results thus suggest that on the one hand the information sharing and coordination aspects of incoming spillovers are crucial in understanding cooperation, while on the other hand, protection against outgoing spillovers is important for firms to engage in stable cooperative agreements by reducing free-rider problems. Distinguishing different types of cooperative partners reveals that while managing outgoing spillovers is less critical in alliances with non-commercial research partners than between vertically related partners, the incoming spillovers seem to be more critical in understanding the former type of R&D cooperation.

Reputation and honesty in a market for information

Previous works on asymmetric information in asset markets tendto focus on the potential gains in the asset market itself. We focus on the market for information and conduct an experimental study to explore, in a game of finite but uncertain duration, whether reputation can be an effective constraint on deliberate misinformation. At the beginning of each period, an uninformed potential asset buyer can purchase information, at a fixed price and from a fully-informed source, about the value of the asset in that period. The informational insiders cannot purchase the asset and are given short-term incentives to provide false information when the asset value is low. Our model predicts that, in accordance with the Folk Theorem, Pareto-superior outcomes featuring truthful revelation should be sustainable. However, this depends critically on beliefs about rationality and behavior. We find that, overall, sellers are truthful 89% of the time. More significantly, the observed frequency of truthfulness is 81% when the asset value is low. Our result is consistent with both mixed-strategy and trigger strategy interpretations and provides evidence that most subjects correctly anticipate rational behavior. We discuss applications to financial markets, media regulation, and the stability of cartels.

Distinct genetic structure in populations of Chrysoperla externa (Hagen) (Neuroptera, Chrysopidae) shown by genetic markers ISSR and COI gene

Distinct genetic structure in populations of Chrysoperla externa (Hagen) (Neuroptera, Chrysopidae) shown by genetic markers ISSR and COI gene. Green lacewings are generalist predators, and the species Chrysoperla externa presents a great potential for use in biological control of agricultural pests due to its high predation and reproduction capacities, as well as its easy mass rearing in the laboratory. The adaptive success of a species is related to genetic variability, so that population genetic studies are extremely important in order to maximize success of the biological control. Thus, the present study used nuclear (Inter Simple Sequence Repeat - ISSR) and mitochondrial (Cytochrome Oxidase I - COI) molecular markers to estimate the genetic variability of 12 populations in the São Paulo State, Brazil, as well as the genetic relationships between populations. High levels of genetic diversity were observed for both markers, and the highest values of genetic diversity appear associated with municipalities that have the greatest areas of native vegetation. There was high haplotype sharing, and there was no correlation between the markers and the geographic distribution of the populations. The AMOVA indicated absence of genetic structure for the COI gene, suggesting that the sampled areas formed a single population unit. However, the great genetic differentiation among populations showed by ISSR demonstrates that these have been under differentiation after their expansion or may also reflect distinct dispersal behavior between males and females.

Can smaller-scale comprehensive cancer centers provide outstanding care in abdominal and thoracic pediatric solid tumor surgery? Results of a 14-year retrospective single-center analysis.

PURPOSE: Quality of care and its measurement represent a considerable challenge for pediatric smaller-scale comprehensive cancer centers (pSSCC) providing surgical oncology services. It remains unclear whether center size and/or yearly case-flow numbers influence the quality of care, and therefore impact outcomes for this population of patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We performed a 14-year, retrospective, single-center analysis, assessing adherence to treatment protocols and surgical adverse events as quality indicators in abdominal and thoracic pediatric solid tumor surgery. RESULTS: Forty-eight patients, enrolled in a research-associated treatment protocol, underwent 51 cancer-oriented surgical procedures. All the protocols contain precise technical criteria, indications, and instructions for tumor surgery. Overall, compliance with such items was very high, with 997/1,035 items (95 %) meeting protocol requirements. There was no surgical mortality. Twenty-one patients (43 %) had one or more complications, for a total of 34 complications (66 % of procedures). Overall, 85 % of complications were grade 1 or 2 according to Clavien-Dindo classification requiring observation or minor medical treatment. Case-sample and outcome/effectiveness data were comparable to published series. Overall, our data suggest that even with the modest caseload of a pSSCC within a Swiss tertiary academic hospital, compliance with international standards can be very high, and the incidence of adverse events can be kept minimal. CONCLUSION: Open and objective data sharing, and discussion between pSSCCs, will ultimately benefit our patient populations. Our study is an initial step towards the enhancement of critical self-review and quality-of-care measurements in this setting.

International Standardisation and Local Participatory Dynamics : The INTERNORM Project

This paper presents a pilot project (INTERNORM) funded by the University of Lausanne (2010 - 2013) to support the involvement of civil society organisations (CSO) in international standard setting bodies such as the ISO. It analyses how a distinct participatory mechanism can influence the institutional environment of technical diplomacy in which standards are shaped. The project is an attempt to respond to the democratic deficit attested in the field of international standardisation, formally open to civil society participation, but still largely dominated by expert knowledge and market players. Many international standards have direct implications on society as a whole, but CSOs (consumers and environmental associations, trade unions) are largely under-represented in negotiation arenas. The paper draws upon international relations literature on new institutional forms in global governance and studies of participation in science and technology. It argues that there are significant limitations to the rise of civil society participation in such global governance mechanisms. The INTERNORM project has been designed as a platform of knowledge exchange between CSO and academic experts, with earmarked funding and official membership to a national standardisation body. But INTERNORM cannot substitute for a long- established lack of resources in time, money and expertise of CSOs. Despite high entry costs into technical diplomacy, participation thus appears as less a matter of upstream engagement, or of procedure only, than of dedicated means to shift the geometry of actors and the framing of socio-technical change.

Fact Sheet: Floods and Flash Floods, 2009

Mitigation pays. It includes any activities that prevent an emergency, reduce the chance of an emergency happening, or lessen the damaging effects of unavoidable emergencies. Investing in mitigation steps now such as constructing barriers such as levees and purchasing flood insurance will help reduce the amount of structural damage to your home and financial loss from building and crop damage should a flood or flash flood occur.

Mobile phone use and brain tumors in children and adolescents: a multicenter case-control study.

Background It has been hypothesized that children and adolescents might be more vulnerable to possible health effects from mobile phone exposure than adults. We investigated whether mobile phone use is associated with brain tumor risk among children and adolescents. Methods CEFALO is a multicenter case-control study conducted in Denmark, Sweden, Norway, and Switzerland that includes all children and adolescents aged 7-19 years who were diagnosed with a brain tumor between 2004 and 2008. We conducted interviews, in person, with 352 case patients (participation rate: 83%) and 646 control subjects (participation rate: 71%) and their parents. Control subjects were randomly selected from population registries and matched by age, sex, and geographical region. We asked about mobile phone use and included mobile phone operator records when available. Odds ratios (ORs) for brain tumor risk and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using conditional logistic regression models. Results Regular users of mobile phones were not statistically significantly more likely to have been diagnosed with brain tumors compared with nonusers (OR = 1.36; 95% CI = 0.92 to 2.02). Children who started to use mobile phones at least 5 years ago were not at increased risk compared with those who had never regularly used mobile phones (OR = 1.26, 95% CI = 0.70 to 2.28). In a subset of study participants for whom operator recorded data were available, brain tumor risk was related to the time elapsed since the mobile phone subscription was started but not to amount of use. No increased risk of brain tumors was observed for brain areas receiving the highest amount of exposure. Conclusion The absence of an exposure-response relationship either in terms of the amount of mobile phone use or by localization of the brain tumor argues against a causal association.

Fact Sheet: Floods and Flash Floods, 2011

Mitigation pays. It includes any activities that prevent an emergency, reduce the chance of an emergency happening, or lessen the damaging effects of unavoidable emergencies. Investing in mitigation steps now such as constructing barriers such as levees and purchasing flood insurance will help reduce the amount of structural damage to your home and financial loss from building and crop damage should a flood or flash flood occur.

To select or to weigh: a comparative study of linear combination schemes for superparent-one-dependence estimators

We conduct a large-scale comparative study on linearly combining superparent-one-dependence estimators (SPODEs), a popular family of seminaive Bayesian classifiers. Altogether, 16 model selection and weighing schemes, 58 benchmark data sets, and various statistical tests are employed. This paper's main contributions are threefold. First, it formally presents each scheme's definition, rationale, and time complexity and hence can serve as a comprehensive reference for researchers interested in ensemble learning. Second, it offers bias-variance analysis for each scheme's classification error performance. Third, it identifies effective schemes that meet various needs in practice. This leads to accurate and fast classification algorithms which have an immediate and significant impact on real-world applications. Another important feature of our study is using a variety of statistical tests to evaluate multiple learning methods across multiple data sets.

Iowa Strategy for Homeland Security and Emergency Management 2009-2014, August 31, 2009

Address sustainability in all efforts. Sustainability should be at the core of all levels of homeland security and emergency management effort in Iowa. Capabilities need to be built for the long term, and without a sustainability plan in place, projects can quickly deplete uncertain levels of funding. Utilize an all-hazards methodology. Developing capabilities that are effective during a variety of disaster and emergency scenarios represents sound planning and resource management. Enhance capabilities through joint planning, training and exercise. Effective capabilities developed through coordinated planning efforts and an ongoing joint training and exercising program to ensure sustainment of prepared response. Utilize a collaborative approach to build capability. We will utilize whatever partnerships are necessary to build capability in the most effective manner possible. Regional partnerships have been, and will continue to be, in the forefront of the State of Iowa’s efforts to build and enhance capability. Enhance statewide capabilities. Whenever possible, we will identify and augment existing resources to provide statewide capability during a disaster or terrorist attack. Awareness, outreach and education. Open communication is critical to the success of any initiative. All projects implemented will have awareness, education and outreach components to ensure that all stakeholders are informed as to their responsibilities, capabilities and access. Information sharing and a common operating picture. The timely exchange of critical/actionable information is imperative to the success of every operation. The identification of a common operating picture allows decision makers to make informed decisions based on a unified understanding of the events around them.

Empirical study about the effects of the application of IAS 32 in Cooperatives

Objecte: L'aplicació de la NIC 32 en les cooperatives ha generat una important controvèrsia en els últims anys. Fins al moment, s'han realitzat diversos treballs que intenten preveure els possibles efectes de la seva aplicació. Aquest treball pretén analitzar l'impacte de la primera aplicació de la NIC 32 en el sector cooperatiu. Disseny/metodologia/enfocament: S'ha seleccionat una mostra de 98 cooperatives, i s'ha realitzat una anàlisi comparativa de la seva informació financera presentada abans i després de l'aplicació de la NIC 32, per a determinar les diferències existents. S’ha utilitzat la prova de la suma de rangs de Wilcoxon per comprovar si aquestes diferències són significatives. També s’ha utilitzat la prova de la U de Mann Whitney per comprovar si existeixen diferències significatives en l’impacte relatiu de l’aplicació de la NIC 32 entre diversos grups de cooperatives. Finalment, s'ha realitzat una anàlisi dels efectes de l'aplicació de la NIC 32 en la situació patrimonial i econòmica de les cooperatives, i en l'evolució dels seus actius intangibles, mitjançant l’ús de tècniques d’anàlisi econòmico-financera. Aportacions i resultats: Els resultats obtinguts confirmen que l'aplicació de la NIC 32 provoca diferències significatives en algunes partides del balanç de situació i el compte de pèrdues i guanys, així com en les ràtios analitzades. Les principals diferències es concreten en una reducció del nivell de capitalització i un augment de l'endeutament de les cooperatives, així com un empitjorament general dels ràtios de solvència i autonomia financera. Limitacions: Cal tenir en compte que el treball s'ha realitzat amb una mostra de cooperatives que estan obligades a auditar els seus comptes anuals. Per tant, els resultats obtinguts han d'interpretar-se en un context de cooperatives de tamany elevat. També cal tenir en compte que hem realitzat una anàlisi comparativa dels comptes anuals de 2011 i 2010. Això ens ha permès conèixer les diferències en la informació financera de les cooperatives abans i després d'aplicar la NIC 32. Encara que algunes d’aquestes diferències també podrien estar causades per altres factors com la situació econòmica, els canvis en l'aplicació de les normes comptables, etc. Originalitat/valor afegit: Creiem que és el moment idoni per a realitzar aquest treball d'investigació, ja que des de 2011 totes les cooperatives espanyoles han d'aplicar les normes comptables adaptades a la NIC 32. A més, fins on coneixem, no existeixen altres treballs similars realitzats amb comptes anuals de cooperatives que ja han aplicat les normes comptables adaptades a la NIC 32 . Creiem que els resultats d'aquest treball d'investigació poden ser útils per a diferents grups d'interès. En primer lloc, perquè els organismes emissors de normes comptables puguin conèixer l'abast de la NIC 32 en les cooperatives i, puguin plantejar millores en el contingut de la norma. En segon lloc, perquè les pròpies cooperatives, federacions, confederacions i altres organismes cooperatius disposin d'informació sobre l'impacte econòmic de la primera aplicació de la NIC 32, i puguin realitzar les valoracions que creguin convenients. I en tercer lloc, perquè les entitats financeres, auditors i assessors de cooperatives i altres grups d'interès disposin d'informació sobre els canvis en els comptes anuals de les cooperatives, i puguin tenir-los en compte a l'hora de prendre decisions. Paraules clau: Cooperatives, patrimoni net, capital social, NIC 32, solvència, efectes de la normativa comptable, informació financera, ràtios.

Rethinking study and management of agricultural systems for policy design

There is a concern that agriculture will no longer be able to meet, on a global scale, the growing demand for food. Facing such a challenge requires new patterns of thinking in the context of complexity and sustainability sciences. This paper, focused on the social dimension of the study and management of agricultural systems, suggests that rethinking the study of agricultural systems entails analyzing them as complex socio-ecological systems, as well as considering the differing thinking patterns of diverse stakeholders. The intersubjective nature of knowledge, as studied by different philosophical schools, needs to be better integrated into the study and management of agricultural systems than it is done so far, forcing us to accept that there are no simplistic solutions, and to seek a better understanding of the social dimension of agriculture. Different agriculture related problems require different policy and institutional approaches. Finally, the intersubjective nature of knowledge asks for the visualization of different framings and the power relations taking place in the decision-making process. Rethinking management of agricultural systems implies that policy making should be shaped by different principles: learning, flexibility, adaptation, scale-matching, participation, diversity enhancement and precaution hold the promise to significantly improve current standard management procedures.