Project risk management in analytic framework

Risks and uncertainties are part and parcel of any project as projects are planned with many assumptions. Therefore, managing those risks is the key to project success. Although risk is present in all most all projects, large-scale construction projects are most vulnerable. Risk is by nature subjective. However, managing risk subjectively posses the danger of non-achievement of project goals. This study introduces an analytical framework for managing risk in projects. All the risk factors are identified, their effects are analyzed, and alternative responses are derived with cost implication for mitigating the identified risks. A decision-making framework is then formulated using decision tree. The expected monetary values are derived for each alternative. The responses, which require least cost is selected. The entire methodology has been explained through a case study of an oil pipeline project in India and its effectiveness in managing projects has been demonstrated. © INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING.

Project risk management:a combined analytic hierarchy process and decision tree approach

Time, cost and quality achievements on large-scale construction projects are uncertain because of technological constraints, involvement of many stakeholders, long durations, large capital requirements and improper scope definitions. Projects that are exposed to such an uncertain environment can effectively be managed with the application of risk management throughout the project life cycle. Risk is by nature subjective. However, managing risk subjectively poses the danger of non-achievement of project goals. Moreover, risk analysis of the overall project also poses the danger of developing inappropriate responses. This article demonstrates a quantitative approach to construction risk management through an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and decision tree analysis. The entire project is classified to form a few work packages. With the involvement of project stakeholders, risky work packages are identified. As all the risk factors are identified, their effects are quantified by determining probability (using AHP) and severity (guess estimate). Various alternative responses are generated, listing the cost implications of mitigating the quantified risks. The expected monetary values are derived for each alternative in a decision tree framework and subsequent probability analysis helps to make the right decision in managing risks. In this article, the entire methodology is explained by using a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India. The case study demonstrates the project management effectiveness of using AHP and DTA.

Project time risk analysis through simulation

An inherent weakness in the management of large scale projects is the failure to achieve the scheduled completion date. When projects are planned with the objective of time achievement, the initial planning plays a vital role in the successful achievement of project deadlines. Cost and quality are additional priorities when such projects are being executed. This article proposes a methodology for achieving time duration of a project through risk analysis with the application of a Monte Carlo simulation technique. The methodology is demonstrated using a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline construction project.

Construction risk management:a quantitative approach

Conventional project management techniques are not always sufficient for ensuring time, cost and quality achievement of large-scale construction projects due to complexity in planning and implementation processes. The main reasons for project non-achievement are changes in scope and design, changes in Government policies and regulations, unforeseen inflation) under-estimation and improper estimation. Projects that are exposed to such an uncertain environment can be effectively managed with the application of risk numagement throughout project life cycle. However, the effectiveness of risk management depends on the technique in which the effects of risk factors are analysed and! or quantified. This study proposes Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a multiple attribute decision-making technique as a tool for risk analysis because it can handle subjective as well as objective factors in decision model that are conflicting in nature. This provides a decision support system (DSS) to project managenumt for making the right decision at the right time for ensuring project success in line with organisation policy, project objectives and competitive business environment. The whole methodology is explained through a case study of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India and its effectiveness in project1nana.gement is demonstrated.

Managing technology in oil pipelines industry

Operating oil pipelines in an optimum capacity through out its life, effective construction management and failure free operations are considered as critical success factors in oil transportation business. Operating oil pipelines in derated capacity due to deteriorating pipeline health or lack of demand, non-ability of augmenting pipeline capacity despite of demand, non-achievement of time, cost, and quality of pipeline construction projects, and many failures of pipelines despite of huge expenditure in inspection and maintenance are the common phenomena in oil pipelines industry. These not only cause business loss, but also increase stakeholders' concerns for sustainable development. This study addresses the above issues using an analytical framework through stakeholders' involvement. Copyright © 2006 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

Ophthalmic engineering:the development of novel instrumentation to further research in the field

The principle theme of this thesis is the advancement and expansion of ophthalmic research via the collaboration between professional Engineers and professional Optometrists. The aim has been to develop new and novel approaches and solutions to contemporary problems in the field. The work is sub divided into three areas of investigation; 1) High technology systems, 2) Modification of current systems to increase functionality, and 3) Development of smaller more portable and cost effective systems. High Technology Systems: A novel high speed Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT) system with integrated simultaneous high speed photography was developed achieving better operational speed than is currently available commercially. The mechanical design of the system featured a novel 8 axis alignment system. A full set of capture, analysis, and post processing software was developed providing custom analysis systems for ophthalmic OCT imaging, expanding the current capabilities of the technology. A large clinical trial was undertaken to test the dynamics of contact lens edge interaction with the cornea in-vivo. The interaction between lens edge design, lens base curvature, post insertion times and edge positions was investigated. A novel method for correction of optical distortion when assessing lens indentation was also demonstrated. Modification of Current Systems: A commercial autorefractor, the WAM-5500, was modified with the addition of extra hardware and a custom software and firmware solution to produce a system that was capable of measuring dynamic accommodative response to various stimuli in real time. A novel software package to control the data capture process was developed allowing real time monitoring of data by the practitioner, adding considerable functionality of the instrument further to the standard system. The device was used to assess the accommodative response differences between subjects who had worn UV blocking contact lens for 5 years, verses a control group that had not worn UV blocking lenses. While the standard static measurement of accommodation showed no differences between the two groups, it was determined that the UV blocking group did show better accommodative rise and fall times (faster), thus demonstrating the benefits of the modification of this commercially available instrumentation. Portable and Cost effective Systems: A new instrument was developed to expand the capability of the now defunct Keeler Tearscope. A device was developed that provided a similar capability in allowing observation of the reflected mires from the tear film surface, but with the added advantage of being able to record the observations. The device was tested comparatively with the tearscope and other tear film break-up techniques, demonstrating its potential. In Conclusion: This work has successfully demonstrated the advantages of interdisciplinary research between engineering and ophthalmic research has provided new and novel instrumented solutions as well as having added to the sum of scientific understanding in the ophthalmic field.

Uses of frontier efficiency methodologies and multi-criteria decision making for performance measurement in the energy sector

Guest editorial Ali Emrouznejad is a Senior Lecturer at the Aston Business School in Birmingham, UK. His areas of research interest include performance measurement and management, efficiency and productivity analysis as well as data mining. He has published widely in various international journals. He is an Associate Editor of IMA Journal of Management Mathematics and Guest Editor to several special issues of journals including Journal of Operational Research Society, Annals of Operations Research, Journal of Medical Systems, and International Journal of Energy Management Sector. He is in the editorial board of several international journals and co-founder of Performance Improvement Management Software. William Ho is a Senior Lecturer at the Aston University Business School. Before joining Aston in 2005, he had worked as a Research Associate in the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University. His research interests include supply chain management, production and operations management, and operations research. He has published extensively in various international journals like Computers & Operations Research, Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, European Journal of Operational Research, Expert Systems with Applications, International Journal of Production Economics, International Journal of Production Research, Supply Chain Management: An International Journal, and so on. His first authored book was published in 2006. He is an Editorial Board member of the International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology and an Associate Editor of the OR Insight Journal. Currently, he is a Scholar of the Advanced Institute of Management Research. Uses of frontier efficiency methodologies and multi-criteria decision making for performance measurement in the energy sector This special issue aims to focus on holistic, applied research on performance measurement in energy sector management and for publication of relevant applied research to bridge the gap between industry and academia. After a rigorous refereeing process, seven papers were included in this special issue. The volume opens with five data envelopment analysis (DEA)-based papers. Wu et al. apply the DEA-based Malmquist index to evaluate the changes in relative efficiency and the total factor productivity of coal-fired electricity generation of 30 Chinese administrative regions from 1999 to 2007. Factors considered in the model include fuel consumption, labor, capital, sulphur dioxide emissions, and electricity generated. The authors reveal that the east provinces were relatively and technically more efficient, whereas the west provinces had the highest growth rate in the period studied. Ioannis E. Tsolas applies the DEA approach to assess the performance of Greek fossil fuel-fired power stations taking undesirable outputs into consideration, such as carbon dioxide and sulphur dioxide emissions. In addition, the bootstrapping approach is deployed to address the uncertainty surrounding DEA point estimates, and provide bias-corrected estimations and confidence intervals for the point estimates. The author revealed from the sample that the non-lignite-fired stations are on an average more efficient than the lignite-fired stations. Maethee Mekaroonreung and Andrew L. Johnson compare the relative performance of three DEA-based measures, which estimate production frontiers and evaluate the relative efficiency of 113 US petroleum refineries while considering undesirable outputs. Three inputs (capital, energy consumption, and crude oil consumption), two desirable outputs (gasoline and distillate generation), and an undesirable output (toxic release) are considered in the DEA models. The authors discover that refineries in the Rocky Mountain region performed the best, and about 60 percent of oil refineries in the sample could improve their efficiencies further. H. Omrani, A. Azadeh, S. F. Ghaderi, and S. Abdollahzadeh presented an integrated approach, combining DEA, corrected ordinary least squares (COLS), and principal component analysis (PCA) methods, to calculate the relative efficiency scores of 26 Iranian electricity distribution units from 2003 to 2006. Specifically, both DEA and COLS are used to check three internal consistency conditions, whereas PCA is used to verify and validate the final ranking results of either DEA (consistency) or DEA-COLS (non-consistency). Three inputs (network length, transformer capacity, and number of employees) and two outputs (number of customers and total electricity sales) are considered in the model. Virendra Ajodhia applied three DEA-based models to evaluate the relative performance of 20 electricity distribution firms from the UK and the Netherlands. The first model is a traditional DEA model for analyzing cost-only efficiency. The second model includes (inverse) quality by modelling total customer minutes lost as an input data. The third model is based on the idea of using total social costs, including the firm’s private costs and the interruption costs incurred by consumers, as an input. Both energy-delivered and number of consumers are treated as the outputs in the models. After five DEA papers, Stelios Grafakos, Alexandros Flamos, Vlasis Oikonomou, and D. Zevgolis presented a multiple criteria analysis weighting approach to evaluate the energy and climate policy. The proposed approach is akin to the analytic hierarchy process, which consists of pairwise comparisons, consistency verification, and criteria prioritization. In the approach, stakeholders and experts in the energy policy field are incorporated in the evaluation process by providing an interactive mean with verbal, numerical, and visual representation of their preferences. A total of 14 evaluation criteria were considered and classified into four objectives, such as climate change mitigation, energy effectiveness, socioeconomic, and competitiveness and technology. Finally, Borge Hess applied the stochastic frontier analysis approach to analyze the impact of various business strategies, including acquisition, holding structures, and joint ventures, on a firm’s efficiency within a sample of 47 natural gas transmission pipelines in the USA from 1996 to 2005. The author finds that there were no significant changes in the firm’s efficiency by an acquisition, and there is a weak evidence for efficiency improvements caused by the new shareholder. Besides, the author discovers that parent companies appear not to influence a subsidiary’s efficiency positively. In addition, the analysis shows a negative impact of a joint venture on technical efficiency of the pipeline company. To conclude, we are grateful to all the authors for their contribution, and all the reviewers for their constructive comments, which made this special issue possible. We hope that this issue would contribute significantly to performance improvement of the energy sector.

Analytic hierarchy process analyses risk of operating cross-country petroleum pipelines in India

The existing method of pipeline health monitoring, which requires an entire pipeline to be inspected periodically, is both time-wasting and expensive. A risk-based model that reduces the amount of time spent on inspection has been presented. This model not only reduces the cost of maintaining petroleum pipelines, but also suggests an efficient design and operation philosophy, construction methodology, and logical insurance plans. The risk-based model uses the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a multiple-attribute decision-making technique, to identify the factors that influence failure on specific segments and to analyze their effects by determining probability of risk factors. The severity of failure is determined through consequence analysis. From this, the effect of a failure caused by each risk factor can be established in terms of cost, and the cumulative effect of failure is determined through probability analysis. The technique does not totally eliminate subjectivity, but it is an improvement over the existing inspection method.

Inspection of parts with complex geometry and welds with structural health monitoring techniques

Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) systems were developed to evaluate the integrity of a system during operation, and to quickly identify the maintenance problems. They will be used in future aerospace vehicles to improve safety, reduce cost and minimize the maintenance time of a system. Many SHM systems were already developed to evaluate the integrity of plates and used in marine structures. Their implementation in manufacturing processes is still expected. The application of SHM methods for complex geometries and welds are two important challenges in this area of research. This research work started by studying the characteristics of piezoelectric actuators, and a small energy harvester was designed. The output voltages at different frequencies of vibration were acquired to determine the nonlinear characteristics of the piezoelectric stripe actuators. The frequency response was evaluated experimentally. AA battery size energy harvesting devices were developed by using these actuators. When the round and square cross section devices were excited at 50 Hz frequency, they generated 16 V and 25 V respectively. The Surface Response to Excitation (SuRE) and Lamb wave methods were used to estimate the condition of parts with complex geometries. Cutting tools and welded plates were considered. Both approaches used piezoelectric elements that were attached to the surfaces of considered parts. The variation of the magnitude of the frequency response was evaluated when the SuRE method was used. The sum of the square of the differences was calculated. The envelope of the received signal was used for the analysis of wave propagation. Bi-orthogonal wavelet (Binlet) analysis was also used for the evaluation of the data obtained during Lamb wave technique. Both the Lamb wave and SuRE approaches along with the three methods for data analysis worked effectively to detect increasing tool wear. Similarly, they detected defects on the plate, on the weld, and on a separate plate without any sensor as long as it was welded to the test plate.

Evaluating the Appropriateness of Project Delivery Systems for Different Trenchless Methods

Trenchless methods have been considered to be a viable solution for pipeline projects in urban areas. Their applicability in pipeline projects is expected to increase with the rapid advancements in technology and emerging concerns regarding social costs related to trenching methods. Selecting appropriate project delivery system (PDS) is a key to the success of trenchless projects. To ensure success of the project, the selected project delivery should be tailored to trenchless project specific characteristics and owner needs, since the effectiveness of project delivery systems differs based on different project characteristics and owners requirements. Since different trenchless methods have specific characteristics such rate of installation, lengths of installation, and accuracy, the same project delivery systems may not be equally effective for different methods. The intent of this paper is to evaluate the appropriateness of different PDS for different trenchless methods. PDS are examined through a structured decision-making process called Fuzzy Delivery System Selection Model (FDSSM). The process of incorporating the impacts of: (a) the characteristics of trenchless projects and (b) owners’ needs in the FDSSM is performed by collecting data using questionnaires deployed to professionals involved in the trenchless industry in order to determine the importance of delivery systems selection attributes for different trenchless methods, and then analyzing this data. The sensitivity of PDS rankings with respect to trenchless methods is considered in order to evaluate whether similar project delivery systems are equally effective in different trenchless methods. The effectiveness of PDS with respect to attributes is defined as follows: a project delivery system is most effective with respect to an attribute (e.g., ability to control growth in costs ) if there is no project delivery system that is more effective than that PDS. The results of this study may assist trenchless project owners to select the appropriate PDS for the trenchless method selected.

Implementação de uma arquitetura fuzzy neural em hardware com treinamento online

Computational Intelligence Methods have been expanding to industrial applications motivated by their ability to solve problems in engineering. Therefore, the embedded systems follow the same idea of using computational intelligence tools embedded on machines. There are several works in the area of embedded systems and intelligent systems. However, there are a few papers that have joined both areas. The aim of this study was to implement an adaptive fuzzy neural hardware with online training embedded on Field Programmable Gate Array – FPGA. The system adaptation can occur during the execution of a given application, aiming online performance improvement. The proposed system architecture is modular, allowing different configurations of fuzzy neural network topologies with online training. The proposed system was applied to: mathematical function interpolation, pattern classification and selfcompensation of industrial sensors. The proposed system achieves satisfactory performance in both tasks. The experiments results shows the advantages and disadvantages of online training in hardware when performed in parallel and sequentially ways. The sequentially training method provides economy in FPGA area, however, increases the complexity of architecture actions. The parallel training method achieves high performance and reduced processing time, the pipeline technique is used to increase the proposed architecture performance. The study development was based on available tools for FPGA circuits.

Centrifuge modeling of oblique pipe-soil interaction in dense and loose sand

Due to relative ground movement, buried pipelines experience geotechnical loads. The imposed geotechnical loads may initiate pipeline deformations that affect system serviceability and integrity. Engineering guidelines (e.g., ALA, 2005; Honegger and Nyman, 2001) provide the technical framework to develop idealized structural models to analyze pipe‒soil interaction events and assess pipe mechanical response. The soil behavior is modeled using discrete springs that represent the geotechnical loads per unit pipe length developed during the interaction event. Soil forces are defined along three orthogonal directions (i.e., axial, lateral and vertical) to analyze the response of pipelines. Nonlinear load-displacement relationships of soil defined by a spring, is independent of neighboring spring elements. However, recent experimental and numerical studies demonstrate significant coupling effects during oblique (i.e., not along one of the orthogonal axes) pipe‒soil interaction events. In the present study, physical modeling using a geotechnical centrifuge was conducted to improve the current understanding of soil load coupling effects of buried pipes in loose and dense sand. A section of pipeline, at shallow burial depth, was translated through the soil at different oblique angles in the axial-lateral plane. The force exerted by the soil on pipe is critically examined to assess the significance of load coupling effects and establish a yield envelope. The displacements required to soil yield force are also examined to assess potential coupling in mobilization distance. A set of laboratory tests were conducted on the sand used for centrifuge modeling to find the stress-strain behavior of sand, which was used to examine the possible mechanisms of centrifuge model test. The yield envelope, deformation patterns, and interpreted failure mechanisms obtained from centrifuge modeling are compared with other physical modeling and numerical simulations available in the literature.