Historic aspects of human susceptibility to leprosy and the risk of conjugal transmission

Estimates of genetic susceptibility to leprosy were made in the past from observational reports in familial settings using descriptive epidemiologic data. Risk of conjugal transmission of leprosy (from one spouse to another) has been estimated between 1-10% and is thought to occur in 3-5% of spouses exposed to untreated lepromatous disease in the partner. Risk of secondary transmission is presumed higher in other family members than for the conjugal partner. This belief has become dogma to many leprologists who may no longer know the basis for this estimation. This article reviews the historic epidemiologic descriptions of risk for leprosy transmission in married couples compared to other family members. Although uncommon, conjugal leprosy occurs and at higher rates in populations with traditional familial intermarriage and consanguinity.

The use of clinical risk factors enhances the performance of BMD in the prediction of hip and osteoporotic fractures in men and women.

SUMMARY: BMD and clinical risk factors predict hip and other osteoporotic fractures. The combination of clinical risk factors and BMD provide higher specificity and sensitivity than either alone. INTRODUCTION AND HYPOTHESES: To develop a risk assessment tool based on clinical risk factors (CRFs) with and without BMD. METHODS: Nine population-based studies were studied in which BMD and CRFs were documented at baseline. Poisson regression models were developed for hip fracture and other osteoporotic fractures, with and without hip BMD. Fracture risk was expressed as gradient of risk (GR, risk ratio/SD change in risk score). RESULTS: CRFs alone predicted hip fracture with a GR of 2.1/SD at the age of 50 years and decreased with age. The use of BMD alone provided a higher GR (3.7/SD), and was improved further with the combined use of CRFs and BMD (4.2/SD). For other osteoporotic fractures, the GRs were lower than for hip fracture. The GR with CRFs alone was 1.4/SD at the age of 50 years, similar to that provided by BMD (GR = 1.4/SD) and was not markedly increased by the combination (GR = 1.4/SD). The performance characteristics of clinical risk factors with and without BMD were validated in eleven independent population-based cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The models developed provide the basis for the integrated use of validated clinical risk factors in men and women to aid in fracture risk prediction.

The lincRNA HOTAIRM1, located in the HOXA genomic region, is expressed in acute myeloid leukemia, impacts prognosis in patients in the intermediate-risk cytogenetic category, and is associated with a distinctive microRNA signature.

Long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) are deregulated in several tumors, although their role in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is mostly unknown.We have examined the expression of the lncRNA HOX antisense intergenic RNA myeloid 1 (HOTAIRM1) in 241 AML patients. We have correlated HOTAIRM1 expression with a miRNA expression profile. We have also analyzed the prognostic value of HOTAIRM1 expression in 215 intermediate-risk AML (IR-AML) patients.The lowest expression level was observed in acute promyelocytic leukemia (P < 0.001) and the highest in t(6;9) AML (P = 0.005). In 215 IR-AML patients, high HOTAIRM1 expression was independently associated with shorter overall survival (OR:2.04;P = 0.001), shorter leukemia-free survival (OR:2.56; P < 0.001) and a higher cumulative incidence of relapse (OR:1.67; P = 0.046). Moreover, HOTAIRM1 maintained its independent prognostic value within the favorable molecular subgroup (OR: 3.43; P = 0.009). Interestingly, HOTAIRM1 was overexpressed in NPM1-mutated AML (P < 0.001) and within this group retained its prognostic value (OR: 2.21; P = 0.01). Moreover, HOTAIRM1 expression was associated with a specific 33-microRNA signature that included miR-196b (P < 0.001). miR-196b is located in the HOX genomic region and has previously been reported to have an independent prognostic value in AML. miR-196b and HOTAIRM1 in combination as a prognostic factor can classify patients as high-, intermediate-, or low-risk (5-year OS: 24% vs 42% vs 70%; P = 0.004).Determination of HOTAIRM1 level at diagnosis provided relevant prognostic information in IR-AML and allowed refinement of risk stratification based on common molecular markers. The prognostic information provided by HOTAIRM1 was strengthened when combined with miR-196b expression. Furthermore, HOTAIRM1 correlated with a 33-miRNA signature.

Role of transcription factor PROX1 in colon cancer metastasis

Initiation and progression of most colorectal cancers (CRCs) are driven by hyper-activation of the canonical Wnt/ß-catenin/TCF signaling pathway. However, a basal level of activation of this pathway is necessary for intestinal cell homeostasis; thus only CRC-specific effectors of this pathway could be exploited as potential clinical targets. PROX1 is an evolutionary conserved transcription factor with multiple roles in several tissues in embryogenesis, and increasing relevance in cancer. PROX1 is a colon cancer-specific Wnt target in the intestine, thus it might represent a therapeutic target. The role of PROX1 in promoting the transition from early to highly-dysplastic adenoma was previously described [1], Importantly, tumor metastasis is a leading cause of cancer-related mortality. Frequently, micrometastases are already present in patients at the time of diagnosis, therefore better understanding of the mechanisms regulating growth of macrometastatic lesions is important for the development of novel treatment approaches. In this study we showed that PROX1 is expressed in colon cancer stem cell and promotes the outgrowth of metastatic lesions. Firstly, we analyzed the expression of PROX1 in advanced CRCs and their metastases. We found that PROX1 over-expression is a feature of microsatellite stable tumors (~85% of microsatellite stable (MSS) CRCs), which generally have worse prognosis in comparison to microsatellite unstable CRCs. Analysis of primary CRCs and corresponding metastatic lesions showed that PROX1 expression is conserved, or increased in metastases. Further bioinformatics analysis of tumor and metastases gene expression profiles showed that PROX1 is co- expressed with stem cell and progenitor markers. Moreover, in inducible ApcmLgr5-EGFP-lres-CreERT2 model, Prox1+ cells marked a sub-population of Lgr5+ stem cells and subsequent transient amplifying cell population. Orthotopic model of CRC and lung colonization assays in mice demonstrated that PROX1 promotes tumor cell outgrowth in metastatic lesions, while it has no effect on primary tumor growth, invasion, and survival in circulation or cell extravasation. In vitro, PROX1 expressing tumor cells demonstrated strongly increased capacity to form spheroids, and increased survival and proliferation under hypoxic or nutrient-deprivation conditions. By monitoring cellular respiration under these conditions, we found that PROX1 expressing cells exhibit a better metabolic adaptation to changes in fuel source. Autophagy inhibitors, prevented growth both in vitro and in vivo of PROX1 expressing cells. Importantly, conditional inactivation of PROX1 after the establishment of metastases prevented further growth of macroscopic lesions resulting in stable disease. In summary, we identified a novel mechanism underlying the ability of metastatic colon cancer stem and progenitor cells to survive and grow in target organs through metabolic adaptation. Our results establish PROX1 as a key factor of CRC metastatic disease where it promotes survival of metastatic colon cancer stem-like cells, through their metabolic adaptation in sub-optimal microenvironments - L'initiation et la progression de la plupart des cancers colorectaux (CRC) sont entraînées par une hyper-activation de la voie métabolique Wnt/ß- caténine/TCF. Toutefois, un niveau d'activation minimal de Wnt est nécessaire pour l'homéostasie des cellules intestinales ; ainsi seuls des effecteurs spécifiques du CRC- de cette voie pourraient être exploités comme des cibles cliniques potentielles. PROX1 est un facteur de transcription évolutif conservé avec de multiples rôles dans plusieurs tissus durant l'embryogenèse et une pertinence croissante dans le cancer. PROX1 est une cible Wnt spécifique dans le cancer de l'intestin, donc il pourrait représenter une cible thérapeutique. Le rôle de PROX1 durant l'évolution de la maladie d'un stade précoce jusqu'à l'adénome hautement dysplasique a été décrit précédemment. Surtout, la métastase des tumeurs est une cause majeure de mortalité liée au cancer. Souvent, les micro-métastases sont déjà présentes chez les patients au moment du diagnostic, c'est pourquoi une meilleure compréhension des mécanismes régulant la croissance des lésions macrométastatiques est importante pour le développement de nouvelles approches thérapeutiques. Dans cette étude, nous avons prouvé que PROX1 est exprimé dans les cellules souches du cancer du côlon et favorise l'apparition de lésions métastatiques. Nous avons d'abord analysé l'expression de PROX1 dans des CRC avancés ainsi que dans leurs métastases. Nous avons constaté que la surexpression de PROX1 est une caractéristique des tumeurs stables microsatellites (~85% du MSS CRC), qui ont généralement un pronostic défavorable par rapport aux microsatellites CRC instables. L'analyse des CRC primaires et de leurs métastases liées a montré que l'expression de PROX1 est conservée, voire augmentée dans les métastases. A l'aide d'une base de données de tumeurs et métastases, nous avons observé une co- régulation de PROX1 entre cellules souches et marqueurs de progéniteurs mais pas avec des cellules différenciées. De plus, en utilisant un modèle Apcm Lgr5-EGFP-IRES-CreERT2 inductible, les cellules Prox1+ ont marqué une sous-population de cellules LGR& capable de produire une lignée. Un modèle orthotopique de cancer colorectal et des essais de colonisation du poumon chez la souris ont démontré que PROX1 favorise l'excroissance des cellules tumorales dans les lésions métastatiques, alors qu'il n'a aucun effet sur la croissance tumorale primaire, l'invasion ou une extravasation des cellules. In vitro, les cellules tumorales exprimant PROX1 ont démontré une forte augmentation de leur capacité à former des sphéroïdes, ainsi qu'une augmentation de la survie et de la prolifération dans des conditions hypoxiques ou lors de privation de nutriments. En contrôlant la respiration cellulaire dans ces conditions, nous avons constaté que les cellules exprimant PROX1 présentent une meilleure adaptation métabolique à l'évolution des sources de carburant. Des inhibiteurs de l'autophagie, suggérant une approche thérapeutique potentielle, ont tué à la fois in vitro et in vivo les cellules exprimant PROX1. Surtout, l'inactivation conditionnelle de PROX1 après l'apparition de métastases a empêché la croissance des lésions macroscopiques résultant en une maladie stable. En résumé, nous avons identifié un nouveau mécanisme mettant en évidence la capacité des cellules souches du cancer du côlon métastatique à survivre et à se développer dans les organes cibles grâce à l'adaptation métabolique. Nos résultats définissent PROX1 comme un facteur clé du cancer colorectal métastatique en favorisant la survie des cellules souches métastatiques apparentées au cancer du colon grâce à leur adaptation métabolique aux microenvironnements défavorables.

Validity and reliability of a questionnaire on knowledge of cardiovascular risk factors for use in Brazil

Using a sample of patients with coronary artery disease, this methodological study aimed to conduct a cross-cultural adaptation and validation of a questionnaire on knowledge of cardiovascular risk factors (Q-FARCS), lifestyle changes, and treatment adherence for use in Brazil. The questionnaire has three scales: general knowledge of risk factors (RFs); specific knowledge of these RFs; and lifestyle changes achieved. Cross-cultural adaptation included translation, synthesis, back-translation, expert committee review, and pretesting. Face and content validity, reliability, and construct validity were measured. Cronbach’s alpha for the total sample (n = 240) was 0.75. Assessment of psychometric properties revealed adequate face and content validity, and the construct revealed seven components. It was concluded that the Brazilian version of Q-FARCS had adequate reliability and validity for the assessment of knowledge of cardiovascular RFs.

Risk factors for falls in hospitalized adult patients: an integrative review

Objective: Identifying risk factors for the occurrence of falls in hospitalized adult patients. Method: Integrative review carried out in the databases of LILACS, SciELO, MEDLINE and Web of Science, including articles published between 1989 and 2012. Results: Seventy-one articles were included in the final sample. Risk factors for falls presented in this review were related to patients (intrinsic), the hospital setting and the working process of health professionals, especially in nursing (extrinsic). Conclusion: The systematic screening of risk factors for falls was identified as a contributing factor to the reduction of this injury, helping the non-occurrence of this event that, despite being preventable, can have serious consequences including death.


Nursing care mapping for patients at risk of falls in the Nursing Interventions Classification

Objective: Identifying the prescribed nursing care for hospitalized patients at risk of falls and comparing them with the interventions of the Nursing Interventions Classifications (NIC). Method: A cross-sectional study carried out in a university hospital in southern Brazil. It was a retrospective data collection in the nursing records system. The sample consisted of 174 adult patients admitted to medical and surgical units with the Nursing Diagnosis of Risk for falls. The prescribed care were compared with the NIC interventions by the cross-mapping method. Results: The most prevalent care were the following: keeping the bed rails, guiding patients/family regarding the risks and prevention of falls, keeping the bell within reach of patients, and maintaining patients’ belongings nearby, mapped in the interventions Environmental Management: safety and Fall Prevention. Conclusion: The treatment prescribed in clinical practice was corroborated by the NIC reference.


A unifying approach to the empirical evaluation of asset pricing models

Two main approaches are commonly used to empirically evaluate linear factor pricingmodels: regression and SDF methods, with centred and uncentred versions of the latter.We show that unlike standard two-step or iterated GMM procedures, single-step estimatorssuch as continuously updated GMM yield numerically identical values for prices of risk,pricing errors, Jensen s alphas and overidentifying restrictions tests irrespective of the modelvalidity. Therefore, there is arguably a single approach regardless of the factors being tradedor not, or the use of excess or gross returns. We illustrate our results by revisiting Lustigand Verdelhan s (2007) empirical analysis of currency returns.

Population based resource allocation: The use of hybrid risk adjustment

The emphasis on integrated care implies new incentives that promote coordinationbetween levels of care. Considering a population as a whole, the resource allocation systemhas to adapt to this environment. This research is aimed to design a model that allows formorbidity related prospective and concurrent capitation payment. The model can be applied inpublicly funded health systems and managed competition settings.Methods: We analyze the application of hybrid risk adjustment versus either prospective orconcurrent risk adjustment formulae in the context of funding total health expenditures for thepopulation of an integrated healthcare delivery organization in Catalonia during years 2004 and2005.Results: The hybrid model reimburses integrated care organizations avoiding excessive risktransfer and maximizing incentives for efficiency in the provision. At the same time, it eliminatesincentives for risk selection for a specific set of high risk individuals through the use ofconcurrent reimbursement in order to assure a proper classification of patients.Conclusion: Prospective Risk Adjustment is used to transfer the financial risk to the healthprovider and therefore provide incentives for efficiency. Within the context of a National HealthSystem, such transfer of financial risk is illusory, and the government has to cover the deficits.Hybrid risk adjustment is useful to provide the right combination of incentive for efficiency andappropriate level of risk transfer for integrated care organizations.

Interdisciplinary research for the analysis and risk assesment : the case of the municipality of Uspantan Guatemala

Short description of the proposed presentation * lees than 100 words This paper describes the interdisciplinary work done in Uspantán, Guatemala, a city vulnerable to natural hazards. We investigated local responses to landslides that happened in 2007 and 2010 and had a strong impact on the local community. We show a complete example of a systemic approach that incorporates physical, social and environmental aspects in order to understand risks. The objective of this work is to present the combination of social and geological data (mapping), and describe the methodology used for identification and assessment of risk. The article discusses both the limitations and methodological challenges encountered when conducting interdisciplinary research. Describe why it is important to present this topic at the Global Platform in less than 50 words This work shows the benefits of addressing risk in an interdisciplinary perspective, in particular how integrating social sciences can help identify new phenomena and natural hazards and assess risk. It gives a practical example of how one can integrate data from different fields. What is innovative about this presentation? * The use of mapping to combine qualitative and quantitative data. By coupling approaches, we could associate a hazard map with qualitative data gathered by interviews with the population. This map is an important document for the authorities. Indeed, it allows them to be aware of the most dangerous zones, the affected families and the places where it is most urgent to intervene.

On landslide risk, resilience and vulnerability of mountain communities in Central-Eastern Nepal

Executive SummaryIn Nepal, landslides are one of the major natural hazards after epidemics, killing over 100 persons per year. However, this figure is an underreported reflection of the actual impact that landslides have on livelihoods and food security in rural Nepal. With predictions of more intense rainfall patterns, landslide occurrence in the Himalayas is likely to increase and continue to be one of the major impediments to development. Due to the remoteness of many localities and lack of resources, responsibilities for disaster preparedness and response in mountain areas usually lie with the communities themselves. Everyday life is full of risk in mountains of Nepal. This is why mountain populations, as well as other populations living in harsh conditions have developed a number of coping strategies for dealing with adverse situations. Perhaps due to the dispersed and remote nature of landslides in Nepal, there have been few studies on vulnerability, coping- and mitigation strategies of landslide affected populations. There are also few recommendations available to guide authorities and populations how to reduce losses due to landslides in Nepal, and even less so, how to operationalize resilience and vulnerability.Many policy makers, international donors, NGOs and national authorities are currently asking what investments are needed to increase the so-called 'resilience' of mountain populations to deal with climate risks. However, mountain populations are already quite resilient to seasonal fluctuations, temperature variations, rainfall patterns and market prices. In spite of their resilience, they continue to live in places at risk due to high vulnerability caused by structural inequalities: access to land, resources, markets, education. This interdisciplinary thesis examines the concept of resilience by questioning its usefulness and validity as the current goal of international development and disaster risk reduction policies, its conceptual limitations and its possible scope of action. The goal of this study is two-fold: to better define and distinguish factors and relationships between resilience, vulnerability, capacities and risk; and to test and improve a participatory methodology for evaluating landslide risk that can serve as a guidance tool for improving community-based disaster risk reduction. The objective is to develop a simple methodology that can be used by NGOs, local authorities and communities to reduce losses from landslides.Through its six case studies in Central-Eastern Nepal, this study explores the relation between resilience, vulnerability and landslide risk based on interdisciplinary methods, including geological assessments of landslides, semi-structured interviews, focus groups and participatory risk mapping. For comparison, the study sites were chosen in Tehrathum, Sunsari and Dolakha Districts of Central/Eastern Nepal, to reflect a variety of landslide types, from chronic to acute, and a variety of communities, from very marginalized to very high status. The study uses the Sustainable Livelihoods Approach as its conceptual basis, which is based on the notion that access and rights to resources (natural, human/institutional, economic, environmental, physical) are the basis for coping with adversity, such as landslides. The study is also intended as a contribution to the growing literature and practices on Community Based Disaster Risk Reduction specifically adapted to landslide- prone areas.In addition to the six case studies, results include an indicator based methodology for assessing and measuring vulnerability and resilience, a composite risk assessment methodology, a typology of coping strategies and risk perceptions and a thorough analysis of the relation between risk, vulnerability and resilience. The methodology forassessing vulnerability, resilience and risk is relatively cost-effective and replicable in a low-data environment. Perhaps the major finding is that resilience is a process that defines a community's (or system's) capacity to rebound following adversity but it does not necessarily reduce vulnerability or risk, which requires addressing more structural issues related to poverty. Therefore, conclusions include a critical view of resilience as a main goal of international development and disaster risk reduction policies. It is a useful concept in the context of recovery after a disaster but it needs to be addressed in parallel with vulnerability and risk.This research was funded by an interdisciplinary grant (#26083591) from the Swiss National Science Foundation for the period 2009-2011 and a seed grant from the Faculty of Geosciences and Environment at the University of Lausanne in 2008.Résumé en françaisAu Népal, les glissements de terrain sont un des aléas les plus dévastateurs après les épidémies, causant 100 morts par an. Pourtant, ce chiffre est une sous-estimation de l'impact réel de l'effet des glissements sur les moyens de subsistance et la sécurité alimentaire au Népal. Avec des prévisions de pluies plus intenses, l'occurrence des glissements dans les Himalayas augmente et présente un obstacle au développement. Du fait de l'éloignement et du manque de ressources dans les montagnes au Népal, la responsabilité de la préparation et la réponse aux catastrophes se trouve chez les communautés elles-mêmes. Le risque fait partie de la vie quotidienne dans les montagnes du Népal. C'est pourquoi les populations montagnardes, comme d'autres populations vivant dans des milieux contraignants, ont développé des stratégies pour faire face aux situations défavorables. Peu d'études existent sur la vulnérabilité, ceci étant probablement dû à l'éloignement et pourtant, les stratégies d'adaptation et de mitigation des populations touchées par des glissements au Népal existent.Beaucoup de décideurs politiques, bailleurs de fonds, ONG et autorités nationales se demandent quels investissements sont nécessaires afin d'augmenter la 'resilience' des populations de montagne pour faire face aux changements climatiques. Pourtant, ces populations sont déjà résilientes aux fluctuations des saisons, des variations de température, des pluies et des prix des marchés. En dépit de leur résilience, ils continuent de vivre dans des endroits à fort risque à cause des vulnérabilités créées par les inégalités structurelles : l'accès à la terre, aux ressources, aux marchés et à l'éducation. Cette thèse interdisciplinaire examine le concept de la résilience en mettant en cause son utilité et sa validité en tant que but actuel des politiques internationales de développement et de réduction des risques, ainsi que ses limitations conceptuelles et ses possibles champs d'action. Le but de cette étude est double : mieux définir et distinguer les facteurs et relations entre la résilience, la vulnérabilité, les capacités et le risque ; Et tester et améliorer une méthode participative pour évaluer le risque des glissements qui peut servir en tant qu'outil indicatif pour améliorer la réduction des risques des communautés. Le but est de développer une méthodologie simple qui peut être utilisée par des ONG, autorités locales et communautés pour réduire les pertes dues aux glissements.A travers les études de cas au centre-est du Népal, cette étude explore le rapport entre la résilience, la vulnérabilité et les glissements basée sur des méthodes interdisciplinaires ; Y sont inclus des évaluations géologiques des glissements, des entretiens semi-dirigés, des discussions de groupes et des cartes de risques participatives. Pour la comparaison, les zones d'études ont été sélectionnées dans les districts de Tehrathum, Sunsari et Dolakha dans le centre-est du Népal, afin de refléter différents types de glissements, de chroniques à urgents, ainsi que différentes communautés, variant de très marginalisées à très haut statut. Pour son cadre conceptuel, cette étude s'appuie sur l'approche de moyens de subsistance durable, qui est basée sur les notions d'accès et de droit aux ressources (naturelles, humaines/institutionnelles, économiques, environnementales, physiques) et qui sont le minimum pour faire face à des situations difficiles, comme des glissements. Cette étude se veut aussi une contribution à la littérature et aux pratiques en croissantes sur la réduction des risques communautaires, spécifiquement adaptées aux zones affectées par des glissements.En plus des six études de cas, les résultats incluent une méthodologie basée sur des indicateurs pour évaluer et mesurer la vulnérabilité et la résilience, une méthodologie sur le risque composé, une typologie de stratégies d'adaptation et perceptions des risques ainsi qu'une analyse fondamentale de la relation entre risque, vulnérabilité et résilience. Les méthodologies pour l'évaluation de la vulnérabilité, de la résilience et du risque sont relativement peu coûteuses et reproductibles dans des endroits avec peu de données disponibles. Le résultat probablement le plus pertinent est que la résilience est un processus qui définit la capacité d'une communauté (ou d'un système) à rebondir suite à une situation défavorable, mais qui ne réduit pas forcement la vulnérabilité ou le risque, et qui requiert une approche plus fondamentale s'adressant aux questions de pauvreté. Les conclusions incluent une vue critique de la résilience comme but principal des politiques internationales de développement et de réduction des risques. C'est un concept utile dans le contexte de la récupération après une catastrophe mais il doit être pris en compte au même titre que la vulnérabilité et le risque.Cette recherche a été financée par un fonds interdisciplinaire (#26083591) du Fonds National Suisse pour la période 2009-2011 et un fonds de préparation de recherches par la Faculté des Géosciences et Environnement à l'Université de Lausanne en 2008.

Interaction between tobacco and alcohol use and the risk of head and neck cancer: pooled analysis in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium.

BACKGROUND: The magnitude of risk conferred by the interaction between tobacco and alcohol use on the risk of head and neck cancers is not clear because studies have used various methods to quantify the excess head and neck cancer burden. METHODS: We analyzed individual-level pooled data from 17 European and American case-control studies (11,221 cases and 16,168 controls) participating in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology consortium. We estimated the multiplicative interaction parameter (psi) and population attributable risks (PAR). RESULTS: A greater than multiplicative joint effect between ever tobacco and alcohol use was observed for head and neck cancer risk (psi = 2.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.53-3.04). The PAR for tobacco or alcohol was 72% (95% confidence interval, 61-79%) for head and neck cancer, of which 4% was due to alcohol alone, 33% was due to tobacco alone, and 35% was due to tobacco and alcohol combined. The total PAR differed by subsite (64% for oral cavity cancer, 72% for pharyngeal cancer, 89% for laryngeal cancer), by sex (74% for men, 57% for women), by age (33% for cases <45 years, 73% for cases >60 years), and by region (84% in Europe, 51% in North America, 83% in Latin America). CONCLUSIONS: Our results confirm that the joint effect between tobacco and alcohol use is greater than multiplicative on head and neck cancer risk. However, a substantial proportion of head and neck cancers cannot be attributed to tobacco or alcohol use, particularly for oral cavity cancer and for head and neck cancer among women and among young-onset cases.

Test of four colon cancer risk-scores in formalin fixed paraffin embedded microarray gene expression data.

BACKGROUND: Prognosis prediction for resected primary colon cancer is based on the T-stage Node Metastasis (TNM) staging system. We investigated if four well-documented gene expression risk scores can improve patient stratification. METHODS: Microarray-based versions of risk-scores were applied to a large independent cohort of 688 stage II/III tumors from the PETACC-3 trial. Prognostic value for relapse-free survival (RFS), survival after relapse (SAR), and overall survival (OS) was assessed by regression analysis. To assess improvement over a reference, prognostic model was assessed with the area under curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. All statistical tests were two-sided, except the AUC increase. RESULTS: All four risk scores (RSs) showed a statistically significant association (single-test, P < .0167) with OS or RFS in univariate models, but with HRs below 1.38 per interquartile range. Three scores were predictors of shorter RFS, one of shorter SAR. Each RS could only marginally improve an RFS or OS model with the known factors T-stage, N-stage, and microsatellite instability (MSI) status (AUC gains < 0.025 units). The pairwise interscore discordance was never high (maximal Spearman correlation = 0.563) A combined score showed a trend to higher prognostic value and higher AUC increase for OS (HR = 1.74, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.44 to 2.10, P < .001, AUC from 0.6918 to 0.7321) and RFS (HR = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.33 to 1.84, P < .001, AUC from 0.6723 to 0.6945) than any single score. CONCLUSIONS: The four tested gene expression-based risk scores provide prognostic information but contribute only marginally to improving models based on established risk factors. A combination of the risk scores might provide more robust information. Predictors of RFS and SAR might need to be different.

A reflection about the social and technological aspects in flood risk management - the case of the Italian Civil Protection

The right of a person to be protected from natural hazards is a characteristic of the social and economical development of the society. This paper is a contribution to the reflection about the role of Civil Protection organizations in a modern society. The paper is based in the inaugural conference made by the authors on the 9th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms. Two major issues are considered. The first one is sociological; the Civil Protection organizations and the responsible administration of the land use planning should be perceived as reliable as possible, in order to get consensus on the restrictions they pose, temporary or definitely, on the individual free use of the territory as well as in the entire warning system. The second one is technological: in order to be reliable they have to issue timely alert and warning to the population at large, but such alarms should be as "true" as possible. With this aim, the paper summarizes the historical evolution of the risk assessment, starting from the original concept of "hazard", introducing the concepts of "scenario of event" and "scenario of risk" and ending with a discussion about the uncertainties and limits of the most advanced and efficient tools to predict, to forecast and to observe the ground effects affecting people and their properties. The discussion is centred in the case of heavy rains and flood events in the North-West of Mediterranean Region.

Exposure of the Swiss population to computed tomography.

BACKGROUND: The frequency of CT procedures has registered a significant increase over the last decade, which led at the international level to an increasing concern on the radiological risk associated with the use of CT especially in paediatrics. This work aimed at investigating the use of computed tomography in Switzerland, following the evolution of CT frequency and dose data over a decade and comparing it to data reported in other countries. METHODS: The frequency and dose data related to CT are obtained by means of a nationwide survey. National frequencies were established by projecting the collected data, using the ratio of the number of CT units belonging to the respondents to the total number of CT units in the country. The effective doses per examination were collected during an auditing campaign. RESULTS: In 2008 about 0.8 Million CT procedures (~ 100 CT examinations / 1000 population) were performed in the country, leading to a collective effective dose of more than 6000 man.Sv (0.8 mSv/caput). In a decade the frequency of CT examinations averaged over the population and the associated average effective dose per caput increased by a factor of 2.2 and 2.9 respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Although the contribution of CT to the total medical X-rays is 6% in terms of the frequency, it represents 68% in terms of the collective effective dose. These results are comparable to those reported in a number of countries in Europe and America with similar health level.