Rumors and stable-cause attribution in prediction and behavior

Two stock-market simulation experiments investigated the notion that rumors that invoke stable-cause attributions spawn illusory associations and less regressive predictions and behavior. In Study 1, illusory perceptions of association and stable causation (rumors caused price changes on the day after they appeared) existed despite rigorous conditions of nonassociation (price changes were unrelated to rumors). Predictions (recent price trends will continue) and trading behavior (departures from a strong buy-low-sell-high strategy) were both anti-regressive. In Study 2, stability of attribution was manipulated via a computerized tutorial. Participants taught to view price-changes as caused by stable forces predicted less regressively and departed more from buy-low-sell-high trading patterns than those taught to perceive changes as caused by unstable forces. Results inform a social cognitive and decision theoretic understanding of rumor by integrating it with causal attribution, covariation detection, and prediction theory. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Iatrogenic bile duct injury: The scourge of laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background: Laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) has become the first-line surgical treatment of calculous gall-bladder disease and the benefits over open cholecystectomy are well known. In the early years of LC, the higher rate of bile duct injuries compared with open cholecystectomy was believed to be due to the 'learning curve' and would dissipate with increased experience. The purpose of the present paper was to review a tertiary referral unit's experience of bile duct injuries induced by LC. Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed on all patients referred for management of an iatrogenic bile duct injury from 1981 to 2000. For injuries sustained at LC, details of time between LC and recognition of the injury, time from injury to definitive repair, type of injury, use of intraoperative cholangiography (IOC), definitive repair and postoperative outcome were recorded. The type of injury sustained at open cholecystectomy was similarly classified to allow the severity of injury to be compared. Results: There were 131 patients referred for management of an iatrogenic bile duct injury that occurred at open cholecystectomy (n = 62), liver resection (n = 5) and at LC (n = 64). Only 39% of bile duct injuries were recognized at the time of LC. Following conversion to open operation, half the subsequent procedures were considered inappropriate. When the injury was not recognized during LC, 70% of patients developed bile leak/peritonitis, almost half of whom were referred, whereas the rest underwent a variety of operative procedures by the referring surgeon. The remainder developed jaundice or abnormal liver function tests and cholangitis. An IOC was performed in 43% of cases, but failed to identify an injury in two-thirds of patients. The bile duct injuries that occurred at LC were of greater severity than with open cholecystectomy. Following definitive repair, there was one death (1.6%). Ninety-two per cent of patients had an uncomplicated recovery and there was one late stricture requiring surgical revision. Conclusions: The early prediction that the rate of injury during LC would decline substantially with increased experience has not been fulfilled. Bile duct injury that occurs at LC is of greater severity than with open cholecystectomy. Bile duct injury is recognized during LC in less than half the cases. Evidence is accruing that the use of cholangiography reduces the risk and severity of injury and, when correctly interpreted, increases the chance of recognition of bile duct injury during the procedure. Prevention is the key but, should an injury occur, referral to a specialist in biliary reconstructive surgery is indicated.

Estimation of total body water from bioelectrical impedance analysis in patients with pancreatic cancer - agreement between three methods of prediction

Introduction Bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) is a useful field measure to estimate total body water (TBW). No prediction formulae have been developed or validated against a reference method in patients with pancreatic cancer. The aim of this study was to assess the agreement between three prediction equations for the estimation of TBW in cachectic patients with pancreatic cancer. Methods Resistance was measured at frequencies of 50 and 200 kHz in 18 outpatients (10 males and eight females, age 70.2 +/- 11.8 years) with pancreatic cancer from two tertiary Australian hospitals. Three published prediction formulae were used to calculate TBW - TBWs developed in surgical patients, TBWca-uw and TBWca-nw developed in underweight and normal weight patients with end-stage cancer. Results There was no significant difference in the TBW estimated by the three prediction equations - TBWs 32.9 +/- 8.3 L, TBWca-nw 36.3 +/- 7.4 L, TBWca-uw 34.6 +/- 7.6 L. At a population level, there is agreement between prediction of TBW in patients with pancreatic cancer estimated from the three equations. The best combination of low bias and narrow limits of agreement was observed when TBW was estimated from the equation developed in the underweight cancer patients relative to the normal weight cancer patients. When no established BIA prediction equation exists, practitioners should utilize an equation developed in a population with similar critical characteristics such as diagnosis, weight loss, body mass index and/or age. Conclusions Further research is required to determine the accuracy of the BIA prediction technique against a reference method in patients with pancreatic cancer.

Polyethylene flow prediction with a differential multi-mode Pom-Pom model

We report the first steps of a collaborative project between the University of Queensland, Polyflow, Michelin, SK Chemicals, and RMIT University; on simulation, validation and application of a recently introduced constitutive model designed to describe branched polymers. Whereas much progress has been made on predicting the complex flow behaviour of many - in particular linear - polymers, it sometimes appears difficult to predict simultaneously shear thinning and extensional strain hardening behaviour using traditional constitutive models. Recently a new viscoelastic model based on molecular topology, was proposed by McLeish and Larson (1998). We explore the predictive power of a differential multi-mode version of the pom-pom model for the flow behaviour of two commercial polymer melts: a (long-chain branched) low-density polyethylene (LDPE) and a (linear) high-density polyethylene (HDPE). The model responses are compared to elongational recovery experiments published by Langouche and Debbaut (1999), and start-up of simple shear flow, stress relaxation after simple and reverse step strain experiments carried out in our laboratory.

Load-unload response ratio and accelerating moment/energy release critical region scaling and earthquake prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

The role of conserved CXXXRXG motif in the expression and function of the human norepinephrine transporter

Highly conserved motifs in the monoamine transporters, e.g. the human norepinephrine transporter (hNET) GXXXRXG motif which was the focus of the present study, are likely to be important structural features in determining function. This motif was investigated by mutating the glycines to glutamate (causing loss of function) and alanine, and the arginine to glycine. The effects of hG117A, hR121G and hG123A mutations on function were examined in COS-7 cells and compared to hNET. Substrate K-m values were decreased for hG117A and hG123A, and their K values for inhibition of [3 H]nisoxetine binding were decreased 3-4-fold and 4-6-fold, respectively. Transporter turnover was reduced to 65% of hNET for hG117A and hR121G and to 28% for hG123A, suggesting that substrate translocation is impaired. K values of nisoxetine and desipramine for inhibition of [H-3]norepinephrine uptake were increased by 5-fold for hG117A, with no change for cocaine. The K-i value of cocaine was increased by 3-fold for hG123A, with no change for nisoxetine and desipramine. However, there were no effects of the mutations on the K-d of [H-3]nisoxetine binding or K-i values of desipramine or cocaine for inhibition of [H-3]nisoxetine binding. Hence, glycine residues of the GXXXRXG motif are important determinants of NET expression and function, while the arginine residue does not have a major role. This study also showed that antidepressants and psychostimulants have different NET binding sites and provided the first evidence that different sites on the NET are involved in the binding of inhibitors and their competitive inhibition of substrate uptake. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Morphology, ultrastructure, and implied function of ciliated sensory structures on the developmental stages of Merizocotyle icopae (Monogenea : Monocotylidae)

Experimental infections were used to track the fate of the dorsal sensilla of Merizocotyle icopae (Monogenea: Monocotylidae) from nasal tissue of the shovelnose ray, Rhinobatos typus (Rhinobatidae). Scanning and transmission electron microscopy revealed that 3 types of uniciliate dorsal sensilla exist at different times in the development of the monogenean. Type 1 sensilla have little or no invagination where the cilium exits the distal end of the dendrite and possess a ring of epidermis surrounding the cilium distal to the invagination. Type 2 sensilla have a deep invagination where the cilium exits the dendrite. Type 3 sensilla can be distinguished from the other types by the shape of the dendrite. The larvae have predominantly Type I dorsal sensilla, most of which are lost approximately 24 h after infection and a few Type 2 sensilla, which are retained. Additional Type 2 sensilla (termed Adult Type 2 sensilla), which are slightly different morphologically from the Type 2 sensilla of the larvae, form in later stages of development. Numerous Type 3 sensilla are unique to the dorsal surface of adults. Loss of all Type I sensilla upon attachment to the host, R. typus, suggests that these may be chemo- or mechanoreceptors responsible for host location by the swimming infective larvae. Type 2 sensilla appear to be important in the larvae, juveniles, and adults whereas the modality mediated by Type 3 is specific to adults. (C) 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Identification of residues and domains of Raf important for function in vivo and in vitro

Random mutagenesis and genetic screens for impaired Raf function in Caenorhabditis elegans were used to identify six loss-of-function alleles of lin-45 raf that result in a substitution of a single amino acid. The mutations were classified as weak, intermediate, and strong based on phenotypic severity. We engineered these mutations into the homologous residues of vertebrate Raf-1 and analyzed the mutant proteins for their underlying biochemical defects. Surprisingly, phenotype strength did not correlate with the catalytic activity of the mutant proteins. Amino acid substitutions Val-589 and Ser-619 severely compromised Raf kinase activity, yet these mutants displayed weak phenotypes in the genetic screen. Interestingly, this is because these mutant Raf proteins efficiently activate the MAPK (mitogen-activated protein kinase) cascade in living cells, a result that may inform the analysis of knockout mice. Equally intriguing was the observation that mutant proteins with non-functional Ras-binding domains, and thereby deficient in Ras-mediated membrane recruitment, displayed only intermediate strength phenotypes. This confirms that secondary mechanisms exist to couple Ras to Raf in vivo. The strongest phenotype in the genetic screens was displayed by a S508N mutation that again did not correlate with a significant loss of kinase activity or membrane recruitment by oncogenic Ras in biochemical assays. Ser-508 lies within the Raf-1 activation loop, and mutation of this residue in Raf-1 and the equivalent Ser-615 in B-Raf revealed that this residue regulates Raf binding to MEK. Further characterization revealed that in response to activation by epidermal growth factor, the Raf-S508N mutant protein displayed both reduced catalytic activity and aberrant activation kinetics: characteristics that may explain the C. elegans phenotype.

An augmented Lanczos algorithm for the efficient computation of a dot-product of a function of a large sparse symmetric matrix

The Lanczos algorithm is appreciated in many situations due to its speed. and economy of storage. However, the advantage that the Lanczos basis vectors need not be kept is lost when the algorithm is used to compute the action of a matrix function on a vector. Either the basis vectors need to be kept, or the Lanczos process needs to be applied twice. In this study we describe an augmented Lanczos algorithm to compute a dot product relative to a function of a large sparse symmetric matrix, without keeping the basis vectors.