Stochastic dynamic programming for election timing: A game theory approach

In this paper, we consider dynamic programming for the election timing in the majoritarian parliamentary system such as in Australia, where the government has a constitutional right to call an early election. This right can give the government an advantage to remain in power for as long as possible by calling an election, when its popularity is high. On the other hand, the opposition's natural objective is to gain power, and it will apply controls termed as "boosts" to reduce the chance of the government being re-elected by introducing policy and economic responses. In this paper, we explore equilibrium solutions to the government, and the opposition strategies in a political game using stochastic dynamic programming. Results are given in terms of the expected remaining life in power, call and boost probabilities at each time at any level of popularity.

Does timing and sequencing of transitions to adulthood make a difference? Stress, smoking, and physical activity among young Australian women

The major changes of the transition to adulthood are argued to be stressful, and health-related behaviors such as smoking and physical activity may be adopted, consolidated, or abandoned at this time. On the other hand, research has suggested that the normative transitions of emerging adulthood, although involving considerable change, may be associated with low stress because they are perceived as both positive and normal at this life stage. This article examines relations between the timing and sequencing of life transitions and stress and health-related behaviors, focusing on the transition to young adulthood among Australian women. A total of 853 women aged 22 to 27 provided information about the timing and sequencing of 6 life transitions: moving out of home, stopping full-time education, starting full-time work, having the first live-in relationship, marriage, and motherhood-and stress, smoking, and physical activity. Most had moved out of home, stopped full-time education, and started full-time work, but only 14% had undertaken all 6 transitions. Overall, 70% of participants had made transitions in order Overall, the findings suggest that the relations between timing and sequencing of transitions, and indicators of health, are moderate for smoking, but small for stress and for physical activity. These effects remained after controlling for socioeconomic status of the participants' families of origin. Matching current social norms for the timing and sequencing of life changes may be of less importance for women's well-being than is commonly believed. Although the significant relations between early or out of order transitions and smoking are of concern, the smaller relations with stress and with sedentariness suggest that such transitions may have limited negative consequences, and support the view that individuals are active in choosing the life path that is appropriate for them and their circumstances.

Timing and chemistry of fluid-flow events in the Lawn Hill Platform, Northern Australia

Mudrocks and carbonates of the Isa superbasin in the Lawn Hill platform in northern Australia host major base metal sulfide mineralization, including the giant strata-bound Century Zn-Pb deposit. Mineral paragenesis, stable isotope, and K-Ar dating studies demonstrate that long-lived structures such as the Termite Range fault acted as hot fluid conduits several times during the Paleoproterozoic and Mesoproterozoic in response to major tectonic events. Illite and chlorite crystallinity studies suggest the southern part of the platform has experienced higher temperatures (up to 300 degrees C) than similar stratigraphic horizons in the north. The irregular downhole variation of illite crystallinity values provides further information oil the thermal regime in the basin and shows that clay formation was controlled not only by temperature increase with depth but also by high water/rock ratios along relatively permeable zones. K-Ar dating of illite, in combination with other data, may indicate three major thermal events in the central and northern Lawn Hill platform Lit 1500, 1440 to 1400, and 1250 to 1150 Ma. This study did not detect the earlier Century base metal mineralizing event at 1575 Ma. 1500 Ma ages are recorded only in the south and correspond to the age of the Late Isan orogeny and deposition of the Lower Roper superbasin. They may reflect exhumation of a provenance region. The 1440 to 1300 Ma ages are related to fault reactivation and a thermal pulse at similar to 1440 to 1400 Ma possibly accompanied by fluid flow, with subsequent enhanced cooling possibly due to thermal relaxation or further crustal exhumation. The youngest thermal and/or fluid-flow event at 1250 to 1150 Ma is recorded mainly to the cast of the Tern-lite Range fault and may be related to the assembly of the Rodinian supercontinent. Fluids in equilibrium with illite that formed over a range of temperatures, at different times in different parts of the platform. have relatively uniform oxygen isotope compositions and more variable hydrogen isotope compositions (delta O-18 = 3.5-9.7 parts per thousand V-SMOW; delta D = -94 to -36 parts per thousand V-SMOW). The extent of the 180 enrichment and the variably depleted hydrogen isotope compositions suggest the illite interacted with deep-basin hypersaline brines that were composed of evaporated seawater and/or highly evolved meteoric water. Siderite is the most abundant iron-rich gangue phase in the Century Zn-Pb deposit, which is surrounded by all extensive ferroan carbonate alteration halo. Modeling suggests that the ore siderite formed at temperatures of 120 degrees to 150 degrees C, whereas siderite and ankerite in the alteration halo formed at temperatures of 150 degrees to 180 degrees C. The calculated isotopic compositions of the fluids are consistent with O-18-rich basinal brines and mixed inorganic and organic carbon Sources (6180 = 3-10 parts per thousand V-SMOW, delta C-13 = -7 to -3 parts per thousand V-PDB). in the northeast Lawn Hill platform carbonate-rich rocks preserve marine to early diagenetic carbon and oxygen isotope compositions, whereas ferroan carbonate cements in siltstones and shales in the Desert Creek borehole are O-18 and C-13 depleted relative to the sedimentary carbonates. The good agreement between temperature estimates from illite crystallinity and organic reflectance (160 degrees-270 degrees C) and inverse correlation with carbonate delta O-18 values indicates that organic maturation and carbonate precipitation in the northeast Lawn Hill platform resulted from interaction with the 1250 to 1150 Ma fluids. The calculated isotopic compositions of the fluid are consistent with evolved basinal brine (delta O-18 = 5.1-9.4 parts per thousand V-SMOW; delta C-13 = -13.2 to -3.7 parts per thousand V-PDB) that contained a variable organic carbon component from the oxidation and/or hydrolysis of organic matter in the host sequence. The occurrence of extensive O-18- and C-13-depleted ankerite and siderite alteration in Desert Creek is related to the high temperature of the 1250 to 1150 Ma fluid-flow event in the northeast Lawn Hill platform, in contrast to the lower temperature fluids associated with the earlier Century Zn-Pb deposit in the central Lawn Hill platform.

Use of regression equation of peripheral pulse timing characteristics to predict hypertension in children

Studies have shown that an increase in arterial stiffening can indicate the presence of cardiovascular diseases like hypertension. Current gold standard in clinical practice is by measuring the blood pressure of patients using a mercury sphygmomanometer. However, the nature of this technique is not suitable for prolonged monitoring. It has been established that pulse wave velocity is a direct measure of arterial stiffening. However, its usefulness is hampered by the absence of techniques to estimate it non-invasively. Pulse transit time (PTT) is a simple and non-intrusive method derived from pulse wave velocity. It has shown its capability in childhood respiratory sleep studies. Recently, regression equations that can predict PTT values for healthy Caucasian children were formulated. However, its usefulness to identify hypertensive children based on mean PTT values has not been investigated. This was a continual study where 3 more Caucasian male children with known clinical hypertension were recruited. Results indicated that the PTT predictive equations are able to identify hypertensive children from their normal counterparts in a significant manner (p < 0.05). Hence, PTT can be a useful diagnostic tool in identifying hypertension in children and shows potential to be a non-invasive continual monitor for arterial stiffening.

Timing analysis of assembler code control-flow paths

Timinganalysis of assembler code is essential to achieve the strongest possible guarantee of correctness for safety-critical, real-time software. Previous work has shown how timingconstrain ts on controlflow paths through high-level language programs can be formalised using the semantics of the statements comprisingthe path. We extend these results to assembler-level code where it becomes possible to not only determine timingconstrain ts, but also to verify them against the known execution times for each instruction. A minimal formal model is developed with both a weakest liberal precondition and a strongest postcondition semantics. However, despite the formalism’s simplicity, it is shown that complex timingb ehaviour associated with instruction pipeliningand iterative code can be modelled accurately.