871 resultados para Expected gain
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Treatment of carotid artery stenosis decreases the long-term risk of stroke and may enhance cerebral blood flow. It is therefore expected to have the potential to prevent cognitive decline or even improve cognition over the long-term. However, intervention itself can cause peri-interventional cerebral infarcts, possibly resulting in a decline of cognitive performance, at least for a short time. We investigated the long-term effects of three treatment methods on cognition and the emotional state one year after intervention. In this prospective observational cohort study, 58 patients with extracranial carotid artery stenosis (≥70%) underwent magnetic resonance imaging and assessment of cognition, mood and motor speed before carotid endarterectomy (n = 20), carotid stenting (n = 10) or best medical treatment (n = 28) (i.e., time-point 1 [TP1]), and at one-year follow-up (TP2). Gain scores, reflecting cognitive change after treatment, were built according to performance as (TP2 -TP1)/TP1. Independent of the treatment type, significant improvement in frontal lobe functions, visual memory and motor speed was found. Performance level, motor speed and mood at TP1 were negatively correlated with gain scores, with greater improvement in patients with low performance before treatment. Active therapy, whether conservative or interventional, produces significant improvement of frontal lobe functions and memory in patients with carotid artery disease, independent of treatment type. This effect was particularly pronounced in patients with low cognitive performance prior to treatment.
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In der vorliegenden Studie wird ausgehend von der Annahme, dass Personen bestrebt sind, für sich Wohlbefinden zu erzielen bzw. aufrechtzuerhalten, Fehlen als ein Mittel zu diesem Ziel hin konzeptualisiert. Es wird der Frage nachgegangen, welcher der beiden Indikatoren des subjektiven Wohlbefindens - allgemeine Gesundheitsbewertung vs. Arbeitszufriedenheit - für die Erklärung von Fehlzeiten von höherer Relevanz ist. Es wird erwartet, dass der kontextungebundene Indikator psychischen und körperlichen Wohlbefindens stark mit Fehlzeiten zusammenhängt, während der arbeitspezifische Indikator in keiner Beziehung zu den selbstberichteten Fehlzeiten steht. 1 410 Beschäftigte einer Telekommunikationsfirma wurden befragt. Die Ergebnisse hierarchischer Regressionsanalysen bestätigen die vermuteten Zusammenhänge und geben korrelative Hinweise für den postulierten Mechanismus.
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Adaptations to new pollinators involve multiple floral traits, each requiring coordinated changes in multiple genes. Despite this genetic complexity, shifts in pollination syndromes have happened frequently during angiosperm evolution. Here we study the genetic basis of floral UV absorbance, a key trait for attracting nocturnal pollinators. In Petunia, mutations in a single gene, MYB-FL, explain two transitions in UV absorbance. A gain of UV absorbance in the transition from bee to moth pollination was determined by a cis-regulatory mutation, whereas a frameshift mutation caused subsequent loss of UV absorbance during the transition from moth to hummingbird pollination. The functional differences in MYB-FL provide insight into the process of speciation and clarify phylogenetic relationships between nascent species.
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BACKGROUND 2013 AHA/ACC guidelines on the treatment of cholesterol advised to tailor high-intensity statin after ACS, while previous ATP-III recommended titration of statin to reach low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) targets. We simulated the impact of this change of paradigm on the achievement of recommended targets. METHODS Among a prospective cohort study of consecutive patients hospitalized for ACS from 2009 to 2012 at four Swiss university hospitals, we analyzed 1602 patients who survived one year after recruitment. Targets based on the previous guidelines approach was defined as (1) achievement of LDL-C target < 1.8 mmol/l, (2) reduction of LDL-C ≥ 50% or (3) intensification of statin in patients who did not reach LDL-C targets. Targets based on the 2013 AHA/ACC guidelines approach was defined as the maximization of statin therapy at high-intensity in patients aged ≤75 years and moderate- or high-intensity statin in patients >75 years. RESULTS 1578 (99%) patients were prescribed statin at discharge, with 1120 (70%) at high-intensity. 1507 patients (94%) reported taking statin at one year, with 909 (57%) at high-intensity. Among 482 patients discharged with sub-maximal statin, intensification of statin was only observed in 109 patients (23%). 773 (47%) patients reached the previous LDL-C targets, while 1014 (63%) reached the 2013 AHA/ACC guidelines targetsone year after ACS (p value < 0.001). CONCLUSION The application of the new 2013 AHA/ACC guidelines criteria would substantially increase the proportion of patients achieving recommended lipid targets one year after ACS. Clinical trial number, NCT01075868.
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In this note, we comment on the relevance of elicitability for backtesting risk measure estimates. In particular, we propose the use of Diebold-Mariano tests, and show how they can be implemented for Expected Shortfall (ES), based on the recent result of Fissler and Ziegel (2015) that ES is jointly elicitable with Value at Risk.
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OBJECTIVE Vestibular neuritis is often mimicked by stroke (pseudoneuritis). Vestibular eye movements help discriminate the two conditions. We report vestibulo-ocular reflex (VOR) gain measures in neuritis and stroke presenting acute vestibular syndrome (AVS). METHODS Prospective cross-sectional study of AVS (acute continuous vertigo/dizziness lasting >24 h) at two academic centers. We measured horizontal head impulse test (HIT) VOR gains in 26 AVS patients using a video HIT device (ICS Impulse). All patients were assessed within 1 week of symptom onset. Diagnoses were confirmed by clinical examinations, brain magnetic resonance imaging with diffusion-weighted images, and follow-up. Brainstem and cerebellar strokes were classified by vascular territory-posterior inferior cerebellar artery (PICA) or anterior inferior cerebellar artery (AICA). RESULTS Diagnoses were vestibular neuritis (n = 16) and posterior fossa stroke (PICA, n = 7; AICA, n = 3). Mean HIT VOR gains (ipsilesional [standard error of the mean], contralesional [standard error of the mean]) were as follows: vestibular neuritis (0.52 [0.04], 0.87 [0.04]); PICA stroke (0.94 [0.04], 0.93 [0.04]); AICA stroke (0.84 [0.10], 0.74 [0.10]). VOR gains were asymmetric in neuritis (unilateral vestibulopathy) and symmetric in PICA stroke (bilaterally normal VOR), whereas gains in AICA stroke were heterogeneous (asymmetric, bilaterally low, or normal). In vestibular neuritis, borderline gains ranged from 0.62 to 0.73. Twenty patients (12 neuritis, six PICA strokes, two AICA strokes) had at least five interpretable HIT trials (for both ears), allowing an appropriate classification based on mean VOR gains per ear. Classifying AVS patients with bilateral VOR mean gains of 0.70 or more as suspected strokes yielded a total diagnostic accuracy of 90%, with stroke sensitivity of 88% and specificity of 92%. CONCLUSION Video HIT VOR gains differ between peripheral and central causes of AVS. PICA strokes were readily separated from neuritis using gain measures, but AICA strokes were at risk of being misclassified based on VOR gain alone.
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BACKGROUND Viral load and CD4% are often not available in resource-limited settings for monitoring children's responses to antiretroviral therapy (ART). We aimed to construct normative curves for weight gain at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months following initiation of ART in children, and to assess the association between poor weight gain and subsequent responses to ART. DESIGN Analysis of data from HIV-infected children younger than 10 years old from African and Asian clinics participating in the International epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS. METHODS The generalized additive model for location, scale, and shape was used to construct normative percentile curves for weight gain at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months following ART initiation. Cox proportional models were used to assess the association between lower percentiles (< 50th) of weight gain distribution at the different time points and subsequent death, virological suppression, and virological failure. RESULTS Among 7173 children from five regions of the world, 45% were underweight at baseline. Weight gain below the 50th percentile at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months of ART was associated with increased risk of death, independent of baseline characteristics. Poor weight gain was not associated with increased hazards of virological suppression or virological failure. CONCLUSION Monitoring weight gain on ART using age-specific and sex-specific normative curves specifically developed for HIV-infected children on ART is a simple, rapid, sustainable tool that can aid in the identification of children who are at increased risk of death in the first year of ART.
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This work deals with parallel optimization of expensive objective functions which are modelled as sample realizations of Gaussian processes. The study is formalized as a Bayesian optimization problem, or continuous multi-armed bandit problem, where a batch of q > 0 arms is pulled in parallel at each iteration. Several algorithms have been developed for choosing batches by trading off exploitation and exploration. As of today, the maximum Expected Improvement (EI) and Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) selection rules appear as the most prominent approaches for batch selection. Here, we build upon recent work on the multipoint Expected Improvement criterion, for which an analytic expansion relying on Tallis’ formula was recently established. The computational burden of this selection rule being still an issue in application, we derive a closed-form expression for the gradient of the multipoint Expected Improvement, which aims at facilitating its maximization using gradient-based ascent algorithms. Substantial computational savings are shown in application. In addition, our algorithms are tested numerically and compared to state-of-the-art UCB-based batchsequential algorithms. Combining starting designs relying on UCB with gradient-based EI local optimization finally appears as a sound option for batch design in distributed Gaussian Process optimization.
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PRINCIPLES We aimed to evaluate the efficacy of, and treatment satisfaction with, insulin glargine administered with SoloSTAR® or ClikSTAR® pens in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus managed by primary care physicians in Switzerland. METHODS A total of 327 patients with inadequately controlled type 2 diabetes were enrolled by 72 physicians in this prospective observational study, which aimed to evaluate the efficacy of a 6-month course of insulin glargine therapy measured as development of glycaemic control (glycosylated haemoglobin [HbA1c] and fasting plasma glucose [FPG]) and weight change. We also assessed preference for reusable or disposable pens, and treatment satisfaction. RESULTS After 6 months, the mean daily dose of insulin glargine was 27.7±14.3 U, and dose titration was completed in 228 (72.4%) patients. Mean HbA1c decreased from 8.9%±1.6% (n=327) to 7.3%±1.0% (n=315) (p<0.0001), and 138 (43.8%) patients achieved an HbA1c≤7.0%. Mean FPG decreased from 10.9±4.5 to 7.3±1.8 mmol/l (p<0.0001). Mean body weight did not change (85.4±17.2 kg vs 85.0±16.5 kg; p=0.11). Patients' preference was in favour of the disposable SoloStar® pen (80%), as compared with the reusable ClickStar® pen (20%). Overall, 92.6% of physicians and 96.3% of patients were satisfied or very satisfied with the insulin glargine therapy. CONCLUSIONS In patients with type 2 diabetes insulin glargine administered by SoloSTAR® or ClikSTAR® pens, education on insulin injection and on self-management of diabetes was associated with clinically meaningful improvements in HbA1c and FPG without a mean collective weight gain. The vast majority of both patients and primary care physicians were satisfied with the treatment intensification.
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The persistence of low birth weight and intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR) in the United States has puzzled researchers for decades. Much of the work that has been conducted on adverse birth outcomes has focused on low birth weight in general and not on IUGR. Studies that have examined IUGR specifically thus far have focused primarily on individual-level maternal risk factors. These risk factors have only been able to explain a small portion of the variance in IUGR. Therefore, recent work has begun to focus on community-level risk factors in addition to the individual-level maternal characteristics. This study uses Social Ecology to examine the relationship of individual and community-level risk factors and IUGR. Logistic regression was used to establish an individual-level model based on 155, 856 births recorded in Harris County, TX during 1999-2001. IUGR was characterized using a fetal growth ratio method with race/ethnic and sex specific mean birth weights calculated from national vital records. The spatial distributions of 114,460 birth records spatially located within the City of Houston were examined using choropleth, probability and density maps. Census tracts with higher than expected rates of IUGR and high levels of neighborhood disadvantage were highlighted. Neighborhood disadvantage was constructed using socioeconomic variables from the 2000 U.S. Census. Factor analysis was used to create a unified single measure. Lastly, a random coefficients model was used to examine the relationship between varying levels of community disadvantage, given the set of individual-level risk factors for 152,997 birth records spatially located within Harris County, TX. Neighborhood disadvantage was measured using three different indices adapted from previous work. The findings show that pregnancy-induced hypertension, previous preterm infant, tobacco use and insufficient weight gain have the highest association with IUGR. Neighborhood disadvantage only slightly further increases the risk of IUGR (OR 1.12 to 1.23). Although community level disadvantage only helped to explain a small proportion of the variance of IUGR, it did have a significant impact. This finding suggests that community level risk factors should be included in future work with IUGR and that more work needs to be conducted. ^
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Introduction. The prevalence of overweight and obesity has increased sharply for both adults and children, particularity in disadvantaged populations. Changes in dietary habits are small; however applying behavior-change principles has been associated with weight loss and preventing weight gain. This article will review studies targeting economically disadvantaged and/or communities of color incorporating the Transtheoretical Model of Change (TTM).^ Methods. Inclusion criteria were established. Descriptions of characteristics of the reviewed study interventions are included.^ Results. The search yielded a total of 23 articles identified through the electronic database PubMed that included Transtheoretical Model of Change (TTM) interventions regarding diet and/or nutrition, physical activity and/or exercise in disadvantaged populations. Thirteen study interventions centered solely on diet modification, five focused only on physical activity, and five concentrated on a combination of both. The preponderance of studies targeted WIC and urban recipients.^ Discussion/Conclusion. Although the majority of intervention studies supported the use of the Transtheoretical Model of Change (TTM) for weight loss and preventing weight gain, researchers noted that challenges still exist and further interventions are needed.^
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Previous research supports the hypothesis that a "rich" diet (i.e., high in fat and low in fiber) increases the risk of colon cancer. Previous research also supports the hypothesis that physical inactivity increases the risk of colon cancer, perhaps because physical inactivity decreases gut motility, thereby increasing tee time that carcinogens are in contact with the intestinal mucosa. Habitual physical inactivity, combined with rich diet, ordinarily results in chronic energy imbalance and gain in weight, except when energy balance is modified by disease or factors such as cigarette smoking. Cigarette smokers typically stay lean because of effects of smoking on the resting metabolic rate as well as on efficiency of caloric intake and storage. Therefore, if physical inactivity and rich diet do increase the risk of colon cancer, then weight gain during young adulthood should be positively associated with incidence of colon cancer during later life, especially in nonsmokers.^ This hypothesis was investigated in a cohort of 2,059 randomly selected middle-aged men who were employed at the Western Electric Company in Chicago and were free of clinically diagnosed cancer at initial examination in 1958. Body mass index (BMI) in middle age was calculated from measured height and weight at the initial examination. BMI at age 20 was estimated from weight at age 20 as recalled at the initial examination and height as measured at the initial examination. Change in BMI between age 20 and middle age was estimated by subtracting the BMI at 20 from the BMI in middle age. Forty-nine incident cases of colon cancer were detected during 25 years (43,326 person-years) at risk. When stratified by level of change in BMI from age 20 to middle age ($\le$1.9, 2.0-3.9, 4.0-5.9, $\ge$6.0 kg/m$\sp2$), age-adjusted relative hazards of colon cancer in never-smokers were 1.00, 1.22, 2.31, and 5.01, respectively (p for trend = 0.008); corresponding values in ever-smokers were 1.00, 0.95, 0.77, and 0.87, These associations did not change appreciably after further adjustment for BMI at age 20, subscapular-triceps skinfold ratio, cigarette smoking, consumption of alcohol, energy, fat, and calcium.^ We also investigated the hypothesis that the risk of colon cancer was higher in men who were lean at age 20 and became fat by middle age (lean-to-fat) than in men who were fat at age 20 and stayed fat in middle-age (fat-to-fat). "Lean" was defined as BMI $<$24 kg/m$\sp2$ at age 20 and as BMI $<$27.0 kg/m$\sp2$ in middle age. Among never-smokers, in comparison to men who were lean at age 20 and in middle age (lean-to-lean), the age-adjusted relative hazard of colon cancer was 1.43 in the fat-to-fat group (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.37-5.52) and 3.36 in the lean-to-fat group (95% CI 1.21-9.37). This investigation provides new results on the magnitude of risk of colon cancer associated with weight gain during adulthood (from age 20 to middle age). This relation was obscured or underestimated in previous studies due to effect-modification by cigarette smoking. Finally, the result supports the idea that a life-style characterized by chronic energy imbalance during young adulthood increases risk of colon cancer. ^
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A life table methodology was developed which estimates the expected remaining Army service time and the expected remaining Army sick time by years of service for the United States Army population. A measure of illness impact was defined as the ratio of expected remaining Army sick time to the expected remaining Army service time. The variances of the resulting estimators were developed on the basis of current data. The theory of partial and complete competing risks was considered for each type of decrement (death, administrative separation, and medical separation) and for the causes of sick time.^ The methodology was applied to world-wide U.S. Army data for calendar year 1978. A total of 669,493 enlisted personnel and 97,704 officers were reported on active duty as of 30 September 1978. During calendar year 1978, the Army Medical Department reported 114,647 inpatient discharges and 1,767,146 sick days. Although the methodology is completely general with respect to the definition of sick time, only sick time associated with an inpatient episode was considered in this study.^ Since the temporal measure was years of Army service, an age-adjusting process was applied to the life tables for comparative purposes. Analyses were conducted by rank (enlisted and officer), race and sex, and were based on the ratio of expected remaining Army sick time to expected remaining Army service time. Seventeen major diagnostic groups, classified by the Eighth Revision, International Classification of Diseases, Adapted for Use In The United States, were ranked according to their cumulative (across years of service) contribution to expected remaining sick time.^ The study results indicated that enlisted personnel tend to have more expected hospital-associated sick time relative to their expected Army service time than officers. Non-white officers generally have more expected sick time relative to their expected Army service time than white officers. This racial differential was not supported within the enlisted population. Females tend to have more expected sick time relative to their expected Army service time than males. This tendency remained after diagnostic groups 580-629 (Genitourinary System) and 630-678 (Pregnancy and Childbirth) were removed. Problems associated with the circulatory system, digestive system and musculoskeletal system were among the three leading causes of cumulative sick time across years of service. ^
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This dissertation develops and tests through path analysis a theoretical model to explain how socioeconomic, socioenvironmental, and biologic risk factors simultaneously influence each other to further produce short-term, depressed growth in preschoolers. Three areas of risk factors were identified: child's proximal environment, maturational stage, and biological vulnerability. The theoretical model represented both the conceptual framework and the nature and direction of the hypotheses. Original research completed in 1978-80 and in 1982 provided the background data. It was analyzed first by nested-analysis of variance, followed by path analysis. The study provided evidence of mild iron deficiency and gastrointestinal symptomatology in the etiology of depressed, short-term weight gain. Also, there was evidence suggesting that family resources for material and social survival significantly contribute to the variability of short-term, age-adjusted growth velocity. These results challenge current views of unifocal intervention, whether for prevention or control. For policy formulations, though, the mechanisms underlying any set of interlaced relationships must be decoded. Theoretical formulations here proposed should be reassessed under a more extensive research design. It is suggested that studies should be undertaken where social changes are actually in progress; otherwise, nutritional epidemiology in developing countries operates somewhere between social reality and research concepts, with little grasp of its real potential. The study stresses that there is a connection between substantive theory, empirical observation, and policy issues. ^
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Patients living with a spinal cord injury (SCI) often develop chronic neuropathic pain (CNP). Unfortunately, the clinically approved, current standard of treatment, gabapentin, only provides temporary pain relief. This treatment can cause numerous adverse side effects that negatively affect the daily lives of SCI patients. There is a great need for alternative, effective treatments for SCI-dependent CNP. Minocycline, an FDA-approved antibiotic, has been widely prescribed for the treatment of acne for several decades. However, recent studies demonstrate that minocycline has neuroprotective properties in several pre-clinical rodent models of CNS trauma and disease. Pre-clinical studies also show that short-term minocycline treatment can prevent the onset of CNP when delivered during the acute stage of SCI and can also transiently attenuate established CNP when delivered briefly during the chronic stage of SCI. However, the potential to abolish or attenuate CNP via long-term administration of minocycline after SCI is unknown. The purpose of this study was to investigate the potential efficacy and safety of long-term administration of minocycline to abolish or attenuate CNP following SCI. A severe spinal contusion injury was administered on adult, male, Sprague-Dawley rats. At day 29 post-injury, I initiated a three-week treatment regimen of daily administration with minocycline (50 mg/kg), gabapentin (50 mg/kg) or saline. The minocycline treatment group demonstrated a significant reduction in below-level mechanical allodynia and above- level hyperalgesia while on their treatment regimen. After a ten-day washout period of minocycline, the animals continued to demonstrate a significant reduction in below-level mechanical allodynia and above-level hyperalgesia. However, minocycline-treated animals exhibited abnormal weight gain and hepatotoxicity compared to gapabentin-treated or vehicle-treated subjects.The results support previous findings that minocycline can attenuate CNP after SCI and suggested that minocycline can also attenuate CNP via long-term delivery of minocycline after SCI (36). The data also suggested that minocycline had a lasting effect at reducing pain symptoms. However, the adverse side effects of long-term use of minocycline should not be ignored in the rodent model. Gabapentin treatment caused a significant decrease in below-level mechanical allodynia and below-level hyperalgesia during the treatment regimen. Because gabapentin treatment has an analgesic effect at the concentration I administered, the results were expected. However, I also found that gabapentin-treated animals demonstrated a sustained reduction in pain ten days after treatment withdrawal. This result was unexpected because gabapentin has a short half-life of 1.7 hours in rodents and previous studies have demonstrated that pre-drug pain levels return shortly after withdrawal of treatment. Additionally, the gabapentin-treated animals demonstrated a significant and sustained increase in rearing events compared with all other treatment groups which suggested that gabapentin treatment was not only capable of reducing pain long-term but may also significantly improve trunk stability or improve motor function recovery.