Fish population dynamics in a seasonally varying wetland

Small fishes in seasonally flooded environments such as the Everglades are capable of spreading into newly flooded areas and building up substantial biomass. Passive drift cannot account for the rapidity of observed population expansions. To test the ‘reaction–diffusion’ mechanism for spread of the fish, we estimated their diffusion coefficient and applied a reaction–diffusion model. This mechanism was also too weak to account for the spatial dynamics. Two other hypotheses were tested through modeling. The first—the ‘refuge mechanism’—hypothesizes that small remnant populations of small fishes survive the dry season in small permanent bodies of water (refugia), sites where the water level is otherwise below the surface. The second mechanism, which we call the ‘dynamic ideal free distribution mechanism’ is that consumption by the fish creates a prey density gradient and that fish taxis along this gradient can lead to rapid population expansion in space. We examined the two alternatives and concluded that although refugia may play an important role in recolonization by the fish population during reflooding, only the second, taxis in the direction of the flooding front, seems capable of matching empirical observations. This study has important implications for management of wetlands, as fish biomass is an essential support of higher trophic levels.

Canals as Vectors for Fish Movement: Potential Southward Range Expansion of Lepisosteus osseus L. (Longnose Gar) in South Florida

Lepisosteus osseus (Longnose Gar) is a large-bodied predator, whose Florida distribution remains unclear at the southern edge of its range. We reviewed available literature and museum voucher specimens to provide a more accurate range description, and we discuss recent collections in south Florida. Longnose Gar has not been previously reported in natural habitats south of Lake Okeechobee. Instead, records south of the lake are from canals, and most are recent (since 2000), including our own southernmost 2011 record. No records from Everglades natural habitats have been collected. Previous studies have shown native range expansions in anthropogenically disturbed landscapes. We suggest that the Longnose Gar is expanding its range southward in Florida using canals as dispersal vectors and/or suitable habitat.

Instability of CTG Repeats is Governed by the Position of a DNA Base Lesion through Base Excision Repair

Trinucleotide repeat (TNR) expansions and deletions are associated with human neurodegeneration and cancer. However, their underlying mechanisms remain to be elucidated. Recent studies have demonstrated that CAG repeat expansions can be initiated by oxidative DNA base damage and fulfilled by base excision repair (BER), suggesting active roles for oxidative DNA damage and BER in TNR instability. Here, we provide the first evidence that oxidative DNA damage can induce CTG repeat deletions along with limited expansions in human cells. Biochemical characterization of BER in the context of (CTG)20 repeats further revealed that repeat instability correlated with the position of a base lesion in the repeat tract. A lesion located at the 59-end of CTG repeats resulted in expansion, whereas a lesion located either in the middle or the 39-end of the repeats led to deletions only. The positioning effects appeared to be determined by the formation of hairpins at various locations on the template and the damaged strands that were bypassed by DNA polymerase b and processed by flap endonuclease 1 with different efficiency. Our study indicates that the position of a DNA base lesion governs whether TNR is expanded or deleted through BER.

The Role of Agriculture and Food Consumption in Tropical Conservation

A growing human population, shifting human dietary habits, and climate change are negatively affecting global ecosystems on a massive scale. Expanding agricultural areas to feed a growing population drives extensive habitat loss, and climate change compounds stresses on both food security and ecosystems. Understanding the negative effects of human diet and climate change on agricultural and natural ecosystems provides a context within which potential technological and behavioral solutions can be proposed to help maximize conservation. The purpose of this research was to (1) examine the potential effects of climate change on the suitability of areas for commercial banana plantations in Latin America in the 2050s and how shifts in growing areas could affect protected areas; (2) test the ability of small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to map productivity of banana plantations as a potential tool for increasing yields and decreasing future plantation expansions; (3) project the effects on biodiversity of increasing rates of animal product consumption in developing megadiverse countries; and (4) estimate the capacity of global pasture biomass production and Fischer-Tropsch hydrocarbon synthesis (IGCC-FT) processing to meet electricity, gasoline and diesel needs. The results indicate that (1) the overall extent of areas suitable for conventional banana cultivation is predicted to decrease by 19% by 2050 because of a hotter and drier climate, but all current banana exporting countries are predicted to maintain some suitable areas with no effects on protected areas; (2) Spatial patterns of NDVI and ENDVI were significantly positively correlated with several metrics of fruit yield and quality, indicating that UAV systems can be used in banana plantations to map spatial patterns of fruit yield; (3) Livestock production is the single largest driver of habitat loss, and both livestock and feedstock production are increasing in developing biodiverse tropical countries. Reducing global animal product consumption should therefore be at the forefront of strategies aimed at reducing biodiversity loss; (4) Removing livestock from global pasture lands and instead utilizing the biomass production could produce enough energy to meet 100% of the electricity, gasoline, and diesel needs of over 40 countries with extensive grassland ecosystems, primarily in tropical developing countries.

Implementation of X-ray diffraction in the measurement of residual thermal strains

Microelectronic systems are multi-material, multi-layer structures, fabricated and exposed to environmental stresses over a wide range of temperatures. Thermal and residual stresses created by thermal mismatches in films and interconnections are a major cause of failure in microelectronic devices. Due to new device materials, increasing die size and the introduction of new materials for enhanced thermal management, differences in thermal expansions of various packaging materials have become exceedingly important and can no longer be neglected. X-ray diffraction is an analytical method using a monochromatic characteristic X-ray beam to characterize the crystal structure of various materials, by measuring the distances between planes in atomic crystalline lattice structures. As a material is strained, this interplanar spacing is correspondingly altered, and this microscopic strain is used to determine the macroscopic strain. This thesis investigates and describes the theory and implementation of X-ray diffraction in the measurement of residual thermal strains. The design of a computer controlled stress attachment stage fully compatible with an Anton Paar heat stage will be detailed. The stress determined by the diffraction method will be compared with bimetallic strip theory and finite element models.

Arquitetura bioclimática para instituição de ensino fundamental em São Gonçalo do Amarante/RN

In the design of a building process must consider climatic variations in the region, the external conditions and the use of available resources in nature, like the sun, vegetation, rain and winds, to provide a built environment with comfort and environment reduced energy expenditure. However, increasing urbanization, often with an occupancy of disordered ground comes disregarding this knowledge and disregarding local characteristics, drastically reducing the green areas. This disordered occupation associated with the reduction of green spaces, is modifying aspects of climate and thus, damaging the thermal comfort of users. Given this situation was born the question: What projetuais strategies can bring better thermal conditions to an educational building located in a region of hot and humid weather? Thus, faced with two important issues , education and environmental comfort , the research is justified by the fact that there is a large national demand for expansions and renovations in its public schools , but not in most areas provides students with quality for good learning development. This paper aims to draw up a project for establishment of Primary Education with the application of the concepts of bioclimatic, highlighting the use of vegetation as a regulatory element of the climate. Initially we carried out a literature search; we analyzed architectural solutions and set up the site. The next phases, called understanding, were raised with the laws, rules and environmental restrictions. Subsequently, the program needs and the development of architectural design was defined. The conclusion of this paper presents the definition of criteria and solutions for the use of vegetation to design of bioclimatic architecture in hot and humid climates and contributes a catalog of plant species for schools in the metropolitan region of Natal, RN.

Phase diagram of the bosonic double-exchange model

The phase diagram of the simplest approximation to double-exchange systems, the bosonic double-exchange model with antiferromagnetic (AFM) superexchange coupling, is fully worked out by means of Monte Carlo simulations, large-N expansions, and variational mean-field calculations. We find a rich phase diagram, with no first-order phase transitions. The most surprising finding is the existence of a segmentlike ordered phase at low temperature for intermediate AFM coupling which cannot be detected in neutron-scattering experiments. This is signaled by a maximum (a cusp) in the specific heat. Below the phase transition, only short-range ordering would be found in neutron scattering. Researchers looking for a quantum critical point in manganites should be wary of this possibility. Finite-size scaling estimates of critical exponents are presented, although large scaling corrections are present in the reachable lattice sizes.

Projected responses of North American grassland songbirds to climate change and habitat availability at their northern range limits in Alberta, Canada

Across North America, grassland songbirds have undergone steep population declines over recent decades, commonly attributed to agricultural intensification. Understanding the potential interactions between the impacts of climate change on the future distributions of these species and the availability of suitable vegetation for nesting can support improved risk assessments and conservation planning for this group of species. We used North American bioclimatic niche models to examine future changes in suitable breeding climate for 15 grassland songbird species at their current northern range limits along the boreal forest–prairie ecotone in Alberta, Canada. Our climate suitability projections, combined with the current distribution of native and tame pasture and cropland in Alberta, suggest that some climate-mediated range expansion of grassland songbirds in Alberta is possible. For six of the eight species projected to experience expansions of suitable climate area in Alberta, this suitable climate partly overlaps the current distribution of suitable land cover. Additionally, for more than half of the species examined, most of the area of currently suitable climate was projected to remain suitable to the end of the century, highlighting the importance of Alberta for the long-term persistence of these species. Some northern prairie-endemic species exhibited substantial projected northward shifts of both the northern and southern edges of the area of suitable climate. Baird’s Sparrow (Ammodramus bairdii) and Sprague’s Pipit (Anthus spragueii), both at-risk grassland specialists, are predicted to have limited climate stability within their current ranges, and their expansion into new areas of suitable climate may be limited by the availability of suitable land cover. Our results highlight the importance of the preservation and restoration of remaining suitable grassland habitat within areas of projected climate stability and beyond current northern range limits for the long-term persistence of many grassland songbird species in the face of climate change.

On the Origin of Natural Antibody

Natural IgM (nIgM) is constitutively present in the serum, where it aids in the early control of viral and bacterial expansions. nIgM also plays a significant role in the prevention of autoimmune disease by promoting the clearance of cellular debris. However, the cells that maintain high titers of nIgM in the circulation had not yet been identified. Several studies have linked serum nIgM with the presence of fetal-lineage B cells, and others have detected IgM secretion directly by B1a cells in various tissues. Nevertheless, a substantial contribution of undifferentiated B1 cells to nIgM titers is doubtful, as the ability to produce large quantities of antibody (Ab) is a function of the phenotype and morphology of differentiated plasma cells (PCs). No direct evidence exists to support the claim that a B1-cell population directly produces the bulk of circulating nIgM. The source of nIgM thus remained uncertain and unstudied.

In the first part of this study, I identified the primary source of nIgM. Using enzyme-linked immunosorbent spot (ELISPOT) assay, I determined that the majority of IgM Ab-secreting cells (ASCs) in naïve mice reside in the bone marrow (BM). Flow cytometric analysis of BM cells stained for intracellular IgM revealed that nIgM ASCs express IgM and the PC marker CD138 on their surface, but not the B1a cell marker CD5. By spinning these cells onto slides and staining them, following isolation by fluorescence-activated cell sorting (FACS), I found that they exhibit the typical morphological characteristics of terminally differentiated PCs. Transfer experiments demonstrated that BM nIgM PCs arise from a progenitor in the peritoneal cavity (PerC), but not isolated PerC B1a, B1b, or B2 cells. Immunoglobulin (Ig) gene sequence analysis and examination of B1-8i mice, which carry an Ig knockin that prohibits fetal B-cell development, indicated that nIgM PCs differentiate from fetal-lineage B cells. BrdU uptake experiments showed that the nIgM ASC compartment contains a substantial fraction of long-lived plasma cells (LLPCs). Finally, I demonstrated that nIgM PCs occupy a survival niche distinct from that used by IgG PCs.

In the second part of this dissertation, I characterized the unique survival niche of nIgM LLPCs, which maintain constitutive high titers of nIgM in the serum. By using genetically deficient or Ab-depleted mice, I found that neither T cells, type 2 innate lymphoid cells, nor mast cells, the three major hematopoietic producers of IL-5, were required for nIgM PC survival in the BM. However, IgM PCs associate strongly with IL-5-expressing BM stromal cells, which support their survival in vitro when stimulated. In vivo neutralization of IL-5 revealed that, like individual survival factors for IgG PCs, IL-5 is not the sole supporter of IgM PCs, but is likely one of several redundant molecules that together ensure uninterrupted signaling. Thus, the long-lived nIgM PC niche is not composed of hematopoietic sources of IL-5, but a stromal cell microenvironment that provides multiple redundant survival signals.

In the final part of my study, I identified and characterized the precursor of nIgM PCs, which I found in the first project to be resident in the PerC, but not a B1a, B1b, or B2 cell. By transferring PerC cells sorted based on expression of CD19, CD5, and CD11b, I found that only the CD19+CD5+CD11b- population contained cells capable of differentiating into nIgM PCs. Transfer of decreasing numbers of unfractionated PerC cells into Rag1 knockouts revealed an order-of-magnitude drop in the rate of serum IgM reconstitution between stochastically sampled pools of 106 and 3x105 PerC cells, suggesting that the CD19+CD5+CD11b- compartment comprises two cell types, and that interaction between the two necessary for nIgM-PC differentiation. By transferring neonatal liver, I determined that the early hematopoietic environment is required for nIgM PC precursors to develop. Using mice carrying a mutation that disturbs cKit expression, I also found that cKit appears to be required at a critical point near birth for the proper development of nIgM PC precursors.

The collective results of these studies demonstrate that nIgM is the product of BM-resident PCs, which differentiate from a PerC B cell precursor distinct from B1a cells, and survive long-term in a unique survival niche created by stromal cells. My work creates a new paradigm by which to understand nIgM, B1 cell, and PC biology.

Essays on Job Search and Labor Market Dynamics

This dissertation consists of three separate essays on job search and labor market dynamics. In the first essay, “The Impact of Labor Market Conditions on Job Creation: Evidence from Firm Level Data”, I study how much changes in labor market conditions reduce employment fluctuations over the business cycle. Changes in labor market conditions make hiring more expensive during expansions and cheaper during recessions, creating counter-cyclical incentives for job creation. I estimate firm level elasticities of labor demand with respect to changes in labor market conditions, considering two margins: changes in labor market tightness and changes in wages. Using employer-employee matched data from Brazil, I find that all firms are more sensitive to changes in wages rather than labor market tightness, and there is substantial heterogeneity in labor demand elasticity across regions. Based on these results, I demonstrate that changes in labor market conditions reduce the variance of employment growth over the business cycle by 20% in a median region, and this effect is equally driven by changes along each margin. Moreover, I show that the magnitude of the effect of labor market conditions on employment growth can be significantly affected by economic policy. In particular, I document that the rapid growth of the national minimum wages in Brazil in 1997-2010 amplified the impact of the change in labor market conditions during local expansions and diminished this impact during local recessions.

In the second essay, “A Framework for Estimating Persistence of Local Labor

Demand Shocks”, I propose a decomposition which allows me to study the persistence of local labor demand shocks. Persistence of labor demand shocks varies across industries, and the incidence of shocks in a region depends on the regional industrial composition. As a result, less diverse regions are more likely to experience deeper shocks, but not necessarily more long lasting shocks. Building on this idea, I propose a decomposition of local labor demand shocks into idiosyncratic location shocks and nationwide industry shocks and estimate the variance and the persistence of these shocks using the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) in 1990-2013.

In the third essay, “Conditional Choice Probability Estimation of Continuous- Time Job Search Models”, co-authored with Peter Arcidiacono and Arnaud Maurel, we propose a novel, computationally feasible method of estimating non-stationary job search models. Non-stationary job search models arise in many applications, where policy change can be anticipated by the workers. The most prominent example of such policy is the expiration of unemployment benefits. However, estimating these models still poses a considerable computational challenge, because of the need to solve a differential equation numerically at each step of the optimization routine. We overcome this challenge by adopting conditional choice probability methods, widely used in dynamic discrete choice literature, to job search models and show how the hazard rate out of unemployment and the distribution of the accepted wages, which can be estimated in many datasets, can be used to infer the value of unemployment. We demonstrate how to apply our method by analyzing the effect of the unemployment benefit expiration on duration of unemployment using the data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) in 1996-2007.

Stable oxygen and carbon isotopes ratios of sediment core GeoB9528-3

The carbon isotopic composition of individual plant leaf waxes (a proxy for C3 vs. C4 vegetation) in a marine sediment core collected from beneath the plume of Sahara-derived dust in northwest Africa reveals three periods during the past 192,000 years when the central Sahara/Sahel contained C3 plants (likely trees), indicating substantially wetter conditions than at present. Our data suggest that variability in the strength of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a main control on vegetation distribution in central North Africa, and we note expansions of C3 vegetation during the African Humid Period (early Holocene) and within Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 (approx. 50-45 ka) and MIS 5 (approx. 120-110 ka). The wet periods within MIS 3 and 5 coincide with major human migration events out of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results thus suggest that changes in AMOC influenced North African climate and, at times, contributed to amenable conditions in the central Sahara/Sahel, allowing humans to cross this otherwise inhospitable region.

Ratio of Diene/Triene of sediment core MD03-2601

Micropaleontological and biomarker data from two high-accumulation marine sites from the Coastal and Continental Shelf Zone (CCSZ) off East Antarctica (Adélie Land at w140°E and eastern Prydz Bay at w77°E) are used to reconstruct Holocene changes in sea ice and wind stress at the basin-wide scale. These data demonstrate congruent increase in sea-ice concentration/persistence and wind stress-related sea-surface turbulence in the two regions since 7 cal ka BP, with a particularly strong signal since 4.5 - 3.5 cal ka BP. Comparison of these high latitude records with sea ice and turbulence records from the southern mid-latitudes highlights distinctive climatic evolutions according to the different latitudinal bands. Sea-ice persistence and turbulence increase in East Antarctica CCSZ are opposite to sea-surface warming and sea-ice retreat recorded after 4.5 - 3.5 cal ka BP in the East Atlantic and Indian sector between 55 and 45°S. At the same period, paleodata suggest SST cooling in all major coastal upwelling systems of the southern hemisphere, caused by the northward transport of subpolar surface waters as a response to southern Westerlies reinforcement. We therefore propose, as suggested for the northern hemisphere, that Holocene changes in the latitudinal insolation gradient, primarily forced by obliquity and precession and amplified by sea-ice and glacial-ice expansions in the Antarctic realm, are responsible for the observed contrasted latitudinal patterns of southern latitudes.

Interpolated maps of pollen percentages in Europe over the last 15,000 years

Aim Palaeoecological reconstructions document past vegetation change with estimates of rapid rates of changing species distribution limits that are often not matched by model simulations of climate-driven vegetation dynamics. Genetic surveys of extant plant populations have yielded new insight into continental vegetation histories, challenging traditional interpretations that had been based on pollen data. Our aim is to examine an updated continental pollen data set from Europe in the light of the new ideas about vegetation dynamics emerging from genetic research and vegetation modelling studies. Location Europe Methods: We use pollen data from the European Pollen Database (EPD) to construct interpolated maps of pollen percentages documenting change in distribution and abundance of major plant genera and the grass family in Europe over the last 15,000 years. Results: Our analyses confirm high rates of postglacial spread with at least 1000 metres per year for Corylus, Ulmus and Alnus and average rates of 400 metres per year for Tilia, Quercus, Fagus and Carpinus. The late Holocene expansions of Picea and Fagus populations in many European regions cannot be explained by migrational lag. Both taxa shift their population centres towards the Atlantic coast suggesting that climate may have played a role in the timing of their expansions. The slowest rates of spread were reconstructed for Abies. Main conclusions: The calculated rates of postglacial plant spread are higher in Europe than those from North America, which may be due to more rapid shifts in climate mediated by the Gulf Stream and westerly winds. Late Holocene anthropogenic land use practices in Europe had major effects on individual taxa, which in combination with climate change contributed to shifts in areas of abundance and dominance. The high rates of spread calculated from the European pollen data are consistent with the common tree species rapidly tracking early Holocene climate change and contribute to the debate on the consequences of global warming for plant distributions.

(Table 1) Radiocarbon ages of samples taken from five sites in north-eastern European Russia

Aim: Concepts about patterns and rates of post-glacial tree population migration are changing as a result of the increasing amount of palaeobotanical information being provided by macroscopic plant remains. Here we combine macrofossil, pollen and stomata records from five sites in north-eastern European Russia and summarize the results for the late-glacial-early Holocene transition. The late-glacial-early Holocene transition encompasses the first indications of trees (tree-type Betula, Picea abies, Abies sibirica and Larix sibirica) and subsequent forest development. Considerable time-lags between the first macrobotanical and/or stomata finds of spruce (Picea abies) and the establishment of a closed forest are reconsidered. Location: Pechora basin, north-eastern European Russia. Methods: We used plant macrofossil, stomata, pollen and radiocarbon analyses to reconstruct late-glacial and early Holocene tree establishment and forest development. The data were derived from lake sediment and peat archives. Results: Palaeobotanical data reveal an early Holocene presence (11,500-10,000 cal. yr bp) of arboreal taxa at all five sites. One site presently located in the northernmost taiga zone, shows the presence of spruce and reproducing tree birch during the late-glacial. Given the current view of post-glacial population dynamics and migration rates, it seems likely that the source area of these early tree populations in north-eastern European Russia was not located in southern Europe but that these populations had local origins. Results thus support the emerging view that the first post-glacial population expansions in non-glaciated regions at high latitudes do not reflect migration from the south but were a result of an increase in the size and density of small persisting outlying tree populations. Main conclusions: Results suggest that the area east of the margin of the Scandinavian ice sheet to the Ural Mountains had isolated patches of trees during the late-glacial and early Holocene and that these small populations acted as initial nuclei for population expansion and forest development in the early Holocene.

Exchange-Trade Funds Evaluation using Performance Measures Distribution

In this study we propose the use of the performance measure distribution rather than its punctual value to rank hedge funds. Generalized Sharpe Ratio and other similar measures that take into account the higher-order moments of portfolio return distributions are commonly used to evaluate hedge funds performance. The literature in this field has reported non-significant difference in ranking between performance measures that take, and those that do not take, into account higher moments of distribution. Our approach provides a much more powerful manner to differentiate between hedge funds performance. We use a non-semiparametric density based on Gram-Charlier expansions to forecast the conditional distribution of hedge fund returns and its corresponding performance measure distribution. Through a forecasting exercise we show the advantages of our technique in relation to using the more traditional punctual performance measures.