985 resultados para Error estimate.
Resumo:
New technologies can be riddled with unforeseen sources of error, jeopardizing the validity and application of their advancement. Bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) is a new technology in fisheries research that is capable of estimating proximate composition, condition, and energy content in fish quickly, cheaply, and (after calibration) without the need to sacrifice fish. Before BIA can be widely accepted in fisheries science, it is necessary to identify sources of error and determine a means to minimize potential errors with this analysis. We conducted controlled laboratory experiments to identify sources of errors within BIA measurements. We concluded that electrode needle location, procedure deviations, user experience, time after death, and temperature can affect resistance and reactance measurements. Sensitivity analyses showed that errors in predictive estimates of composition can be large (>50%) when these errors are experienced. Adherence to a strict protocol can help avoid these sources of error and provide BIA estimates that are both accurate and precise in a field or laboratory setting.
Resumo:
Esta dissertação tem como objetivo apresentar uma estimativa preliminar do volume de recurso contingente não-convencionais de folhelhos oleígenos (oil shale) na Formação Tremembé através de métodos probabilísticos aplicados à informações compiladas de bibliografias existentes sobre a bacia. Como base para esta estimativa utilizou-se informações obtidas através de sísmica 2D, poços existentes na área e perfis geoquímicos. Através da interpretação dos mesmos foram gerados os valores de inputs para os parâmetros utilizados no cálculo, como: espessura econômica, densidade do minério e valor de Ensaio Fisher (Litros de óleo por tonelada de rocha). Para a análise foi construída uma planilha Excel no qual já descrito cada parâmetro do cálculo. Foi utilizado o software @Risk, da Palisade Inc., que é capaz de atribuir distribuições estatísticas a parâmetros utilizados no cálculo obtendo, a partir do método Monte Carlo, distribuições dos possíveis resultados. A metodologia apresentada se demonstra mais adequada ao caso em estudo que o método determinístico, devido a restrição e ausência da precisão dos dados o que aumentaria as incertezas e as chances de erro no cálculo do volume, podendo impossibilitar uma avaliação, no caso do segundo. A metodologia probabilística ao mesmo tempo em que permite uma avaliação preliminar na ausência de dados precisos, ela gera cenários probabilísticos de resultados, possibilitando a antecipação da tomada de decisões em um projeto, permitindo sua continuação ou abandono.
Resumo:
Body-size measurement errors are usually ignored in stock assessments, but may be important when body-size data (e.g., from visual sur veys) are imprecise. We used experiments and models to quantify measurement errors and their effects on assessment models for sea scallops (Placopecten magellanicus). Errors in size data obscured modes from strong year classes and increased frequency and size of the largest and smallest sizes, potentially biasing growth, mortality, and biomass estimates. Modeling techniques for errors in age data proved useful for errors in size data. In terms of a goodness of model fit to the assessment data, it was more important to accommodate variance than bias. Models that accommodated size errors fitted size data substantially better. We recommend experimental quantification of errors along with a modeling approach that accommodates measurement errors because a direct algebraic approach was not robust and because error parameters were diff icult to estimate in our assessment model. The importance of measurement errors depends on many factors and should be evaluated on a case by case basis.
Resumo:
Horseshoe crabs (Limulus polyphemus) are valued by many stakeholders, including the commercial fishing industry, biomedical companies, and environmental interest groups. We designed a study to test the accuracy of the conversion factors that were used by NOAA Fisheries and state agencies to estimate horseshoe crab landings before mandatory reporting that began in 1998. Our results indicate that the NOAA Fisheries conversion factor consistently overestimates the weight of male horseshoe crabs, particularly those from New England populations. Because of the inaccuracy of this and other conversion factors, states are now mandated to report the number (not biomass) and sex of landed horseshoe crabs. However, accurate estimates of biomass are still necessary for use in prediction models that are being developed to better manage the horseshoe crab fishery. We recommend that managers use the conversion factors presented in this study to convert current landing data from numbers to biomass of harvested horseshoe crabs for future assessments.
Resumo:
Minimizing bycatch of seabirds is a major goal of the U.S. National Marine Fisheries Service. In Alaska waters, the bycatch (i.e., inadvertent catches) of seabirds has been an incidental result of demersal groundfish longline fishery operations. Notably, the endangered short-tailed albatross (Phoebastria albatrus) has been taken in this groundfish fishery. Bycatch rates of seabirds from individual vessels may be of particular interest because vessels with high bycatch rates may not be functioning effectively with seabird avoidance gears, and there may be a need for suggestions on how to use these avoidance gears more effectively. Therefore, bycatch estimates are usually made on an individual vessel basis and then summed to obtain the total estimate for the entire fleet.
Resumo:
A simple approach is introduced to estimate the natural mortality rate (M) of fish stocks. The approach is based on the age at maximum cohort biomass, or critical length (L*) concept. The ratio of the critical length to the asymptotic length ( = L*/L8) is relatively constant in 141 fish stocks at 0.62 (CV = 21.4 per cent) and the relationship M = 3K(1- )/ is derived and could be used to estimate M, where K is the growth coefficient of the von Bertalanffy growth function. Average values of are given for the various Families of fish in order to estimate M based on closely related species.
Resumo:
Nesta pesquisa utilizou-se um equipamento experimental que utiliza o método do eco-impacto produzido no Laboratório de Ensaios Físicos do Instituto Politécnico do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ/IPRJ), para estimar a espessuras de placas de concreto através da propagação de ondas de tensão geradas por um impacto. Para determinação dessa espessura, foram investigados vários mecanismos de estruturação do protótipo do equipamento com objetivo de se obter a melhor leitura possível, por meio das literaturas existentes. Entre parâmetros avaliados no estudo, estava o modelo de sensor a ser utilizado, o tipo de impactor, a precisão relacionada à aquisição de dados e o tratamento do mesmo, a distância entre o ponto de impacto e o transdutor (sensor), e o local de teste. Os resultados experimentais concordam com as previsões teóricas e revelam que este método é eficiente para análise de estrutura de concreto. A análise da espessura e resposta em frequência de um novo protótipo desenvolvido e os testes realizados possibilitou um erro médio de espessura real para amostras sem agregados de 0,39% e para as amostras com agregados com de 0,64%. Esses resultados apontam que o equipamento produzido tem potencial e que o mesmo pode ser utilizado para avaliação de estrutura de concreto.
Resumo:
The age and growth dynamics of the spinner shark (Carcharhinus brevipinna) in the northwest Atlantic Ocean off the southeast United States and in the Gulf of Mexico were examined and four growth models were used to examine variation in the ability to fit size-at-age data. The von Bertalanffy growth model, an alternative equation of the von Bertalanffy growth model with a size-at-birth intercept, the Gompertz growth model, and a logistic model were fitted to sex-specific observed size-at-age data. Considering the statistical criteria (e.g., lowest mean square error [MSE], high coefficient-of-determination, and greatest level of significance) we desired for this study, the logistic model provided the best overall fit to the size-at-age data, whereas the von Bertalanffy growth model gave the worst. For “biological validity,” the von Bertalanffy model for female sharks provided estimates similar to those reported in other studies. However, the von Bertalanffy model was deemed inappropriate for describing the growth of male spinner sharks because estimates of theoretical maximum size (L∞) indicated a size much larger than that observed in the field. However, the growth coefficient (k= 0.14/yr) from the Gompertz model provided an estimate most similar to that reported for other large coastal species. The analysis of growth for spinner shark in the present study demonstrates the importance of fitting alternative models when standard models fit the data poorly or when growth estimates do not appear to be realistic.
Resumo:
The ability to estimate the original size of an ingested prey item is an important step in understanding the community and population structure of piscivorous predators (Scharf et al., 1998). More specifically, knowledge of original prey size is essential for deriving important biological information, such as predator consumption rates, biomass of the prey consumed, and selectivity of a predator towards a specific size class of prey (Hansel et al., 1988; Scharf et al., 1997; Radke et al., 2000). To accurately assess the overall “top-down” pressure a predator may exert on prey community structure, prey size is crucial. However, such information is often difficult to collect in the field (Trippel and Beamish, 1987). Stomach-content analyses are the most common methods for examining the diets of piscivorous fish, but the prey items found are often thoroughly digested and sometimes unidentifiable. As a result, obtaining a direct measurement of prey items is frequently impossible.
Resumo:
Short-duration (5- or 10-day) deployments of pop-up satellite archival tags were used to estimate survival of white marlin (Tetrapturus albidus) released from the western North Atlantic recreational fishery. Forty-one tags, each recording temperature, pressure, and light level readings approximately every two minutes for 5-day tags (n= 5) or four minutes for 10-day tags (n= 36), were attached to white marlin caught with dead baits rigged on straight-shank (“J”) hooks (n =21) or circle hooks (n=20) in offshore waters of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region, the Dominican Republic, Mexico, and Venezuela. Forty tags (97.8%) transmitted data to the satellites of the Argos system, and 33 tags (82.5%) transmitted data consistent with survival of tagged animals over the deployment duration. Approximately 61% (range: 19−95%) of all archived data were successfully recovered from each tag. Survival was significantly (P<0.01) higher for white marlin caught on circle hooks (100%) than for those caught on straight-shank (“J”) hooks (65%). Time-to-death ranged from 10 minutes to 64 hours following release for the seven documented mortalities, and five animals died within the first six hours after release. These results indicate that a simple change in hook type can significantly increase the survival of white marlin released from recreational fis