Hybrid wind-diesel power plant valuation and optimization using real option theory and dynamic programming

El sistema de energ��a e��lica-diesel h��brido tiene un gran potencial en la prestaci��n de suministro de energ��a a comunidades remotas. En comparaci��n con los sistemas tradicionales de diesel, las plantas de energ��a h��bridas ofrecen grandes ventajas tales como el suministro de capacidad de energ��a extra para "microgrids", reducci��n de los contaminantes y emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, y la cobertura del riesgo de aumento inesperado del precio del combustible. El principal objetivo de la presente tesis es proporcionar nuevos conocimientos para la evaluaci��n y optimizaci��n de los sistemas de energ��a h��brido e��lico-diesel considerando las incertidumbres. Dado que la energ��a e��lica es una variable estoc��stica, ��sta no puede ser controlada ni predecirse con exactitud. La naturaleza incierta del viento como fuente de energ��a produce serios problemas tanto para la operaci��n como para la evaluaci��n del valor del sistema de energ��a e��lica-diesel h��brido. Por un lado, la regulaci��n de la potencia inyectada desde las turbinas de viento es una dif��cil tarea cuando opera el sistema h��brido. Por otro lado, el bene.cio econ��mico de un sistema e��lico-diesel h��brido se logra directamente a trav��s de la energ��a entregada a la red de alimentaci��n de la energ��a e��lica. Consecuentemente, la incertidumbre de los recursos e��licos incrementa la dificultad de estimar los beneficios globales en la etapa de planificaci��n. La principal preocupaci��n del modelo tradicional determinista es no tener en cuenta la incertidumbre futura a la hora de tomar la decisi��n de operaci��n. Con lo cual, no se prev�� las acciones operativas flexibles en respuesta a los escenarios futuros. El an��lisis del rendimiento y simulaci��n por ordenador en el Proyecto E��lico San Crist��bal demuestra que la incertidumbre sobre la energ��a e��lica, las estrategias de control, almacenamiento de energ��a, y la curva de potencia de aerogeneradores tienen un impacto significativo sobre el rendimiento del sistema. En la presente tesis, se analiza la relaci��n entre la teor��a de valoraci��n de opciones y el proceso de toma de decisiones. La opci��n real se desarrolla con un modelo y se presenta a trav��s de ejemplos pr��cticos para evaluar el valor de los sistemas de energ��a e��lica-diesel h��bridos. Los resultados muestran que las opciones operacionales pueden aportar un valor adicional para el sistema de energ��a h��brida, cuando esta flexibilidad operativa se utiliza correctamente. Este marco se puede aplicar en la optimizaci��n de la operaci��n a corto plazo teniendo en cuenta la naturaleza dependiente de la trayectoria de la pol��tica ��ptima de despacho, dadas las plausibles futuras realizaciones de la producci��n de energ��a e��lica. En comparaci��n con los m��todos de valoraci��n y optimizaci��n existentes, el resultado del caso de estudio num��rico muestra que la pol��tica de operaci��n resultante del modelo de optimizaci��n propuesto presenta una notable actuaci��n en la reducci��n del con- sumo total de combustible del sistema e��lico-diesel. Con el .n de tomar decisiones ��ptimas, los operadores de plantas de energ��a y los gestores de ��stas no deben centrarse s��lo en el resultado directo de cada acci��n operativa, tampoco deber��an tomar decisiones deterministas. La forma correcta es gestionar din��micamente el sistema de energ��a teniendo en cuenta el valor futuro condicionado en cada opci��n frente a la incertidumbre. ABSTRACT Hybrid wind-diesel power systems have a great potential in providing energy supply to remote communities. Compared with the traditional diesel systems, hybrid power plants are providing many advantages such as providing extra energy capacity to the micro-grid, reducing pollution and greenhouse-gas emissions, and hedging the risk of unexpected fuel price increases. This dissertation aims at providing novel insights for assessing and optimizing hybrid wind-diesel power systems considering the related uncertainties. Since wind power can neither be controlled nor accurately predicted, the energy harvested from a wind turbine may be considered a stochastic variable. This uncertain nature of wind energy source results in serious problems for both the operation and value assessment of the hybrid wind-diesel power system. On the one hand, regulating the uncertain power injected from wind turbines is a difficult task when operating the hybrid system. On the other hand, the economic profit of a hybrid wind-diesel system is achieved directly through the energy delivered to the power grid from the wind energy. Therefore, the uncertainty of wind resources has increased the difficulty in estimating the total benefits in the planning stage. The main concern of the traditional deterministic model is that it does not consider the future uncertainty when making the dispatch decision. Thus, it does not provide flexible operational actions in response to the uncertain future scenarios. Performance analysis and computer simulation on the San Cristobal Wind Project demonstrate that the wind power uncertainty, control strategies, energy storage, and the wind turbine power curve have a significant impact on the performance of the system. In this dissertation, the relationship between option pricing theory and decision making process is discussed. A real option model is developed and presented through practical examples for assessing the value of hybrid wind-diesel power systems. Results show that operational options can provide additional value to the hybrid power system when this operational flexibility is correctly utilized. This framework can be applied in optimizing short term dispatch decisions considering the path-dependent nature of the optimal dispatch policy, given the plausible future realizations of the wind power production. Comparing with the existing valuation and optimization methods, result from numerical example shows that the dispatch policy resulting from the proposed optimization model exhibits a remarkable performance in minimizing the total fuel consumption of the wind-diesel system. In order to make optimal decisions, power plant operators and managers should not just focus on the direct outcome of each operational action; neither should they make deterministic decisions. The correct way is to dynamically manage the power system by taking into consideration the conditional future value in each option in response to the uncertainty.

An accurate model for simulating energetic behavior of PV grid connected inverters

This paper proposes a new model for characterizing the energetic behavior of grid connected PV inverters. The model has been obtained from a detailed study of main loss processes in small size PV inverters in the market. The main advantage of the used method is to obtain a model that comprises two antagonistic features, since both are simple, easy to compute and apply, and accurate. One of the main features of this model is how it handles the maximum power point tracking (MPPT) and the efficiency: in both parts the model uses the same approach and it is achieved by two resistive elements which simulate the losses inherent to each parameter. This makes this model easy to implement, compact and refined. The model presented here also includes other parameters, such as start threshold, standby consumption and islanding behavior. In order to validate the model, the values of all the parameters listed above have been obtained and adjusted using field measurements for several commercial inverters, and the behavior of the model applied to a particular inverter has been compared with real data under different working conditions, taken from a facility located in Madrid. The results show a good fit between the model values and the real data. As an example, the model has been implemented in PSPICE electronic simulator, and this approach has been used to teach grid-connected PV systems. The use of this model for the maintenance of working PV facilities is also shown.

Toward a consolidation of the CPV-specific-test procedures for inverters

The inverter in a photovoltaic system assures two essential functions. The first is to track the maximum power point of the system IV curve throughout variable environmental conditions. The second is to convert DC power delivered by the PV panels into AC power. Nowadays, in order to qualify inverters, manufacturers and certifying organisms use mainly European and/or CEC efficiency standards. The question arises if these are still representative of CPV system behaviour. We propose to use a set of CPV ��� specific weighted average and a representative dynamic response to have a better determination of the static and dynamic MPPT efficiencies. Four string-sized commercial inverters used in real CPV plants have been tested.

The segmental approximation in multijunction solar cells

The segmental approach has been considered to analyze dark and light I-V curves. The photovoltaic (PV) dependence of the open-circuit voltage (Voc), the maximum power point voltage (Vm), the efficiency (?) on the photogenerated current (Jg), or on the sunlight concentration ratio (X), are analyzed, as well as other photovoltaic characteristics of multijunction solar cells. The characteristics being analyzed are split into monoexponential (linear in the semilogarithmic scale) portions, each of which is characterized by a definite value of the ideality factor A and preexponential current J0. The monoexponentiality ensures advantages, since at many steps of the analysis, one can use the analytical dependences instead of numerical methods. In this work, an experimental procedure for obtaining the necessary parameters has been proposed, and an analysis of GaInP/GaInAs/Ge triple-junction solar cell characteristics has been carried out. It has been shown that up to the sunlight concentration ratios, at which the efficiency maximum is achieved, the results of calculation of dark and light I-V curves by the segmental method fit well with the experimental data. An important consequence of this work is the feasibility of acquiring the resistanceless dark and light I-V curves, which can be used for obtaining the I-V curves characterizing the losses in the transport part of a solar cell.

Too high and too low: The problems with energy prices in the EU. OSW Commentary No. 122, 03.12.2013

On 11 October, the top executives of ten European energy companies, which jointly own about half of the European Union���s electricity generating capacity, warned that ���energy security is no longer guaranteed��� and once again called for changes to EU energy policy. Due to persistent adverse conditions in the energy market (linked to, for example, the exceptionally low wholesale energy prices) more and more conventional power plants are being closed down. According to sector representatives, this could lead to energy shortages being seen as early as this winter. Meanwhile, in an interview with The Daily Telegraph published in September of this year, the European industry commissioner Antonio Tajani warned ��� in a rather alarmist tone ��� of the disastrous consequences the rising energy prices could have on European industry. Amongst the reasons for the high prices of energy, Tajani mentioned the overambitious pace and methods used to increase the share of renewables in the sector. In a similar vein, EU President Herman Van Rompuy has highlighted the need to reduce energy costs as a top priority for EU energy policy1. The price of energy has become one of the central issues in the current EU energy debate. The high consumer price of energy ��� which has been rising steadily over the past several years ��� poses a serious challenge to both household and industrial users. Meanwhile, the declining wholesale prices are affecting the cost-effectiveness of energy production and the profits of energy companies. The current difficulties, however, are first and foremost a symptom of much wider problems related to the functioning of both the EU energy market as well as to the EU���s climate and energy policies.

Towards Batteryless Cardiac Implantable Electronic Devices ��� The Swiss Way

Energy harvesting devices are widely discussed as an alternative power source for todays active implantable medical devices. Repeated battery replacement procedures can be avoided by extending the implants life span, which is the goal of energy harvesting concepts. This reduces the risk of complications for the patient and may even reduce device size. The continuous and powerful contractions of a human heart ideally qualify as a battery substitute. In particular, devices in close proximity to the heart such as pacemakers, defibrillators or bio signal (ECG) recorders would benefit from this alternative energy source. The clockwork of an automatic wristwatch was used to transform the hearts kinetic energy into electrical energy. In order to qualify as a continuous energy supply for the consuming device, the mechanism needs to demonstrate its harvesting capability under various conditions. Several in-vivo recorded heart motions were used as input of a mathematical model to optimize the clockworks original conversion efficiency with respect to myocardial contractions. The resulting design was implemented and tested during in-vitro and in-vivo experiments, which demonstrated the superior sensitivity of the new design for all tested heart motions.

Direct energy conversion devices : a literature search /

Included are 344 unclassified references on devices utilizing nuclear energy in the production of auxiliary power. The coverage includes nuclear batteries, thermoelectric cells, thermionic cells, and all phases of the SNAP program, although not all SNAP devices employ direct conversion. References from Nuclear Science Abstracts (NSA) through December 15, 1961, are included.

The economic base for power markets in Lincoln County, Oregon /

"January 1946."

The economic base for power markets in Chelan, Douglas, and Okanogan counties, Washington /

"July 1945."

Manpower requirements in the nuclear power industry, 1982-1991 /

"Prepared for Office of Nuclear Power Systems, Assistant Secretary for Nuclear Energy, U.S. Department of Energy and the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations."

Constraints on muscular performance: trade-offs between power output and fatigue resistance

An important functional and evolutionary constraint on the physical performance of vertebrates is believed to be the trade-off between speed and endurance capacity. However, despite the pervasiveness of physiological arguments, most studies have found no evidence of the trade-off when tested at the whole-animal level. We investigated the existence of this trade-off at the whole-muscle level, the presumed site of this physiological conflict, by examining inter-individual variation in both maximum power output and fatigue resistance for mouse extensor digitorum longus (EDL) muscle using the work-loop technique. We found negative correlations between several measures of in vitro maximum power output and force production with fatigue resistance for individual mouse EDL muscles, indicating functional trade-offs between these performance parameters. We suggest that this trade-off detected at the whole-muscle level has imposed an important constraint on the evolution of vertebrate physical performance.

Cascaded DC-DC converter connection of photovoltaic modules

New residential scale photovoltaic (PV) arrays are commonly connected to the grid by a single dc-ac inverter connected to a series string of pv panels, or many small dc-ac inverters which connect one or two panels directly to the ac grid. This paper proposes an alternative topology of nonisolated per-panel dc-dc converters connected in series to create a high voltage string connected to a simplified dc-ac inverter. This offers the advantages of a converter-per-panel approach without the cost or efficiency penalties of individual dc-ac grid connected inverters. Buck, boost, buck-boost, and Cuk converters are considered as possible dc-dc converters that can be cascaded. Matlab simulations are used to compare the efficiency of each topology as well as evaluating the benefits of increasing cost and complexity. The buck and then boost converters are shown to be the most efficient topologies for a given cost, with the buck best suited for long strings and the boost for short strings. While flexible in voltage ranges, buck-boost, and Cuk converters are always at an efficiency or alternatively cost disadvantage.

Parallel 3D Simulation of a Fault Gouge using the Lattice Solid Model

Despite the insight gained from 2-D particle models, and given that the dynamics of crustal faults occur in 3-D space, the question remains, how do the 3-D fault gouge dynamics differ from those in 2-D? Traditionally, 2-D modeling has been preferred over 3-D simulations because of the computational cost of solving 3-D problems. However, modern high performance computing architectures, combined with a parallel implementation of the Lattice Solid Model (LSM), provide the opportunity to explore 3-D fault micro-mechanics and to advance understanding of effective constitutive relations of fault gouge layers. In this paper, macroscopic friction values from 2-D and 3-D LSM simulations, performed on an SGI Altix 3700 super-cluster, are compared. Two rectangular elastic blocks of bonded particles, with a rough fault plane and separated by a region of randomly sized non-bonded gouge particles, are sheared in opposite directions by normally-loaded driving plates. The results demonstrate that the gouge particles in the 3-D models undergo significant out-of-plane motion during shear. The 3-D models also exhibit a higher mean macroscopic friction than the 2-D models for varying values of interparticle friction. 2-D LSM gouge models have previously been shown to exhibit accelerating energy release in simulated earthquake cycles, supporting the Critical Point hypothesis. The 3-D models are shown to also display accelerating energy release, and good fits of power law time-to-failure functions to the cumulative energy release are obtained.

Cascaded DC-DC converter connection of photovoltaic modules

New residential scale photovoltaic (PV) arrays are commonly connected to the grid by a single DC-AC inverter connected to a series string of PV modules, or many small DC-AC inverters which connect one or two modules directly to the AC grid. This paper shows that a "converter-per-module" approach offers many advantages including individual module maximum power point tracking, which gives great flexibility in module layout, replacement, and insensitivity to shading; better protection of PV sources, and redundancy in the case of source or converter failure; easier and safer installation and maintenance; and better data gathering. Simple nonisolated per-module DC-DC converters can be series connected to create a high voltage string connected to a simplified DC-AC inverter. These advantages are available without the cost or efficiency penalties of individual DC-AC grid connected inverters. Buck, boost, buck-boost and Cuk converters are possible cascadable converters. The boost converter is best if a significant step up is required, such as with a short string of 12 PV modules. A string of buck converters requires many more modules, but can always deliver any combination of module power. The buck converter is the most efficient topology for a given cost. While flexible in voltage ranges, buck-boost and Cuk converters are always at an efficiency or alternatively cost disadvantage.

Gasification of rubberwood in a downdraft gasifier

The objectives of this research were to investigate the perforamnce of a rubberwood gasifier and engine with electricity generation and to identify opportunities for the implementation of such a system in Malaysia. The experimental work included the design, fabrication and commissioning of a throated downdraft gasifier in Malaysia. The gasifier was subsequently used to investigate the effect of moisture content, dry wood capacity and particle size of rubberwood on gasifier performance. Additional experiments were also conducted to investigate the influence of two different nozzle numbers and two different throat diameters on tar cracking. A total of 101 runs were completed during the duration of the research. From the experimental data, the average mass balance was found to be 92.65%. The average energy balance over the gasifier to hot raw gas was 98.7%, to cold clean gas was 102.4% and over the complete system was 101.9%. The heat loss from the gasifier was estimated to range from 10-26% of the chemical energy of the feedstock. From the downstream operation, the heat loss was estimated to range from 17-37% of the chemical energy of rubberwood feedstock. The maximum throughput for stable operation was found to be 60-70% of the maximum dry wood capacity. The gasifier was found to have a maximum turndown ratio of 5:1. It is also postulated that the phenomenon of turndown of the gasifier is due to a `bubble theory' occurring at the gasification zone, and this hypothesis is explained. For stable power output, the working range of the engine was found to be 5-33.5 kWe. The thermal efficiency and diesel displacement of the engine was found to be 17-18% and 65-70% respectively. The research also showed that rubberwood gasification in Malaysia is feasible if the price of diesel is above MR35/l and the price of wood is below MR120/tonne.