Evaluating multivariate volatility forecasts : how effective are statistical and economic loss functions?

Multivariate volatility forecasts are an important input in many financial applications, in particular portfolio optimisation problems. Given the number of models available and the range of loss functions to discriminate between them, it is obvious that selecting the optimal forecasting model is challenging. The aim of this thesis is to thoroughly investigate how effective many commonly used statistical (MSE and QLIKE) and economic (portfolio variance and portfolio utility) loss functions are at discriminating between competing multivariate volatility forecasts. An analytical investigation of the loss functions is performed to determine whether they identify the correct forecast as the best forecast. This is followed by an extensive simulation study examines the ability of the loss functions to consistently rank forecasts, and their statistical power within tests of predictive ability. For the tests of predictive ability, the model confidence set (MCS) approach of Hansen, Lunde and Nason (2003, 2011) is employed. As well, an empirical study investigates whether simulation findings hold in a realistic setting. In light of these earlier studies, a major empirical study seeks to identify the set of superior multivariate volatility forecasting models from 43 models that use either daily squared returns or realised volatility to generate forecasts. This study also assesses how the choice of volatility proxy affects the ability of the statistical loss functions to discriminate between forecasts. Analysis of the loss functions shows that QLIKE, MSE and portfolio variance can discriminate between multivariate volatility forecasts, while portfolio utility cannot. An examination of the effective loss functions shows that they all can identify the correct forecast at a point in time, however, their ability to discriminate between competing forecasts does vary. That is, QLIKE is identified as the most effective loss function, followed by portfolio variance which is then followed by MSE. The major empirical analysis reports that the optimal set of multivariate volatility forecasting models includes forecasts generated from daily squared returns and realised volatility. Furthermore, it finds that the volatility proxy affects the statistical loss functions’ ability to discriminate between forecasts in tests of predictive ability. These findings deepen our understanding of how to choose between competing multivariate volatility forecasts.

Economic prosperity, suburbanization, and the creative workforce : findings from Australian suburban communities

This paper considers the changing relationship between economic prosperity and Australian suburbs, noting that what has been termed “the first suburban nation” in experiencing an intensification of suburban growth in the 2000s, in the context of economic globalization. The paper reports on a three-year Australian Research Council funded project into “Creative Suburbia”, identifying the significant percentage of the creative industries workforce who live in suburban areas. Drawing on case studies from suburbs in the Australian cities of Brisbane and Melbourne, it notes the contrasts between the experience of these workers, who are generally positive towards suburban life, and the underlying assumptions of “creative cities” policy discourse that such workers prefer to be concentrated in high density inner urban creative clusters.

Why evolutionary realism underpins evolutionary economic analysis and theory

This paper offers a reply to Jochen Runde's critical appraisal of the ontological framework underpinning Dopfer and Potts's (2008) General Theory of Economic Evolution. We argue that Runde's comprehensive critique contains several of what we perceive to be misunderstandings in relation to the key concepts of ‘generic’ and ‘meso’ that we seek here to unpack and redress.

Drinking and driving in Vietnam : perceptions and risk

Road traffic injuries are a major global public health problem but continue to receive inadequate attention. Alcohol influences both risk and consequence of road traffic injury but the scale of the problem is not well understood in many countries. In Vietnam, economic development has brought a substantial increase in the number of registered motorcycles as well as alcohol consumption. Traffic injury is among the leading causes of death in Vietnam but there is little local information regarding alcohol related traffic injuries. The primary goal of this study is to explore the drinking and driving patterns of males and their perceptions towards drink-driving and to determine the relationship between alcohol consumption and road traffic injuries. Furthermore, this thesis aims to present the situation analysis for choosing priority actions to reduce drinking and driving in Vietnam. The study is a combination of two cross-sectional surveys and a pilot study. The pilot study, involving 224 traffic injured patients, was conducted to test the tools and the feasibility of approach methods. In the first survey, male patrons (n=464) were randomly selected at seven restaurants. Face-to-face interviews were conducted when patrons just arrived and breath tests were collected when they were about to leave the restaurant. In the second survey, male patients admitted to hospital following a traffic injury (n=480, of which 414 were motorcycle or bicycle riders) were interviewed and their blood alcohol concentration (BAC) measured by breathalyzer. The results show broadly similar patterns of drinking and driving among male patrons and male traffic injured patients with a high frequency of drinking and drink-driving reported among the majority of the two groups. A high proportion of male patrons were leaving restaurants with a BAC over the legal limit. Factors that significantly associate with the number of drinks and BAC were age, hazardous drinking, frequency of drink-driving in the past year, self-estimated number of drinks consumed to drive legally, perceived family’s disapproval of drink-driving, and perceived legal risk and physical risk. The proportion of patrons and patients with BAC above the legal limit of 0.05 were 86.7% and 60.4% respectively, which was much higher than found in previous studies. In addition, both groups had a high prevalence of BAC over 0.15g/100ml (39.7% of patrons and 45.6% patients), a level that can seriously affect driving capacity. Results from the case-crossover analysis for patients indicate a dose-response relationship between alcohol consumption and the risk of traffic injury. The risk of traffic injury increased when alcohol was consumed before driving and there was a more than 13 fold increase when six or more drinks were consumed. Regarding perceptions towards drinking and driving, findings corroborate the low awareness among males in Vietnam, with a majority of respondents holding a low knowledge of safe and legally permissible alcohol use, and a low perceived risk of drinking and driving. The results also indicate a huge gap in prevention skills in terms of planning ahead or using alternative transport to avoid drink-driving and a perception by patrons and patients of a low rate of disapproval of drink-driving from peers and family. Findings in this study have considerable implications for national policy, injury prevention, clinical practice, reporting systems, and for further research. The low rate of compliance with existing laws and a generally low perceived legal risk toward drink-driving in this study call for the strengthening of enforcement along with mass media campaigns and news coverage in order to decrease the widespread perception of impunity and thereby, to reduce the level of drink-driving. In addition, no significant difference was found in this study on risk of traffic injuries between car drivers and motorcycle drivers. The current inconsistency between legal BAC for drivers of motorcycles, compared to cars, thus needs addressing. Furthermore, as drinking was found to be very common, rather than solely targeting drink-driving, it is important to call for a more strategic and comprehensive approach to alcohol policy in Viet Nam. This study also has considerable implications for clinical practice in terms of screening and brief interventions. Our study suggests that the short form of the AUDIT (AUDIT-C) screening tool is appropriate for use in busy emergency departments. The high proportion of traffic injured patients with evidence of alcohol abuse or hazardous drinking suggests that brief interventions by alcohol and drug counselors in emergency departments are a sensible option to addressing this important problem. The significance of this study is in the combination of the systematic collection of breath test and use of case-crossover design to estimate the risk of traffic injuries after alcohol consumption. The results provide convincing evidence to policy makers, health authorities and the media to help raise community awareness and policy advocacy toward the drinkdriving problem in Vietnam. The findings suggest an urgent need for a multi-sectoral approach to curtail drink-driving in Vietnam, especially programs to raise community awareness and effective legal enforcement. Furthermore, serving as a situation analysis, the thesis should inform the formulation of interventions designed to curtail drinking and driving in Vietnam and other developing countries.

The effect of ocular surface conditions on blink rate and completeness

A healthy human would be expected to show periodic blinks, making a brief closure of the eyelids. Most blinks are spontaneous, occurring regularly with no external stimulus. However a reflex blink can occur in response to external stimuli such as a bright light, a sudden loud noise, or an object approaching toward the eyes. A voluntary or forced blink is another type of blink in which the person deliberately closes the eyes and the lower eyelid raises to meet the upper eyelid. A complete blink, in which the upper eyelid touches the lower eyelid, contributes to the health of ocular surface by providing a fresh layer of tears as well as maintaining optical integrity by providing a smooth tear film over the cornea. The rate of blinking and its completeness vary depending on the task undertaken during blink assessment, the direction of gaze, the emotional state of the subjects and the method under which the blink was measured. It is also well known that wearing contact lenses (both rigid and soft lenses) can induce significant changes in blink rate and completeness. It is been established that efficient blinking plays an important role in ocular surface health during contact lens wear and for improving contact lens performance and comfort. Inefficient blinking during contact lens wear may be related to a low blink rate or incomplete blinking and can often be a reason for dry eye symptoms or ocular surface staining. It has previously been shown that upward gaze can affect blink rate, causing it to become faster. In the first experiment, it was decided to expand on previous studies in this area by examining the effect of various gaze directions (i.e. upward gaze, primary gaze, downward gaze and lateral gaze) as well as head angle (recumbent position) on normal subjects’ blink rate and completeness through the use of filming with a high-speed camera. The results of this experiment showed that as the open palpebral aperture (and exposed ocular surface area) increased from downward gaze to upward gaze, the number of blinks significantly increased (p<0.04). Also, the size of closed palpebral aperture significantly increased from downward gaze to upward gaze (p<0.005). A weak positive correlation (R² = 0.18) between the blink rate and ocular surface area was found in this study. Also, it was found that the subjects showed 81% complete blinks, 19% incomplete blinks and 2% of twitch blinks in primary gaze, consistent with previous studies. The difference in the percentage of incomplete blinks between upward gaze and downward gaze was significant (p<0.004), showing more incomplete blinks in upward gaze. The findings of this experiment suggest that while blink rate becomes slower in downward gaze, the completeness of blinking is typically better, thereby potentially reducing the risk of tear instability. On the other hand, in upward gaze while the completeness of blinking becomes worse, this is potentially offset by increased blink frequency. In addition, blink rate and completeness were not affected by lateral gaze or head angle, possibly because these conditions have similar size of the open palpebral aperture compared with primary gaze. In the second experiment, an investigation into the changes in blink rate and completeness was carried out in primary gaze and downward gaze with soft and rigid contact lenses in unadapted wearers. Not surprisingly, rigid lens wear caused a significant increase in the blink rate in both primary (p<0.001) and downward gaze (p<0.02). After fitting rigid contact lenses, the closed palpebral aperture (blink completeness) did not show any changes but the open palpebral aperture showed a significant narrowing (p<0.04). This might occur from the subjects’ attempt to avoid interaction between the upper eyelid and the edge of the lens to minimize discomfort. After applying topical anaesthetic eye drops in the eye fitted with rigid lenses, the increased blink rate dropped to values similar to that before lens insertion and the open palpebral aperture returned to baseline values, suggesting that corneal and/or lid margin sensitivity was mediating the increased blink rate and narrowed palpebral aperture. We also investigated the changes in the blink rate and completeness with soft contact lenses including a soft sphere, double slab-off toric design and periballast toric design. Soft contact lenses did not cause any significant changes in the blink rate, closed palpebral aperture, open palpebral aperture and the percentage of incomplete blinks in either primary gaze or downward gaze. After applying anaesthetic eye drops, the blink rate reduced in both primary gaze and downward gaze, however this difference was not statistically significant. The size of the closed palpebral aperture and open palpebral aperture did not show any significant changes after applying anaesthetic eye drops. However it should be noted that the effects of rigid and soft contact lenses that we observed in these studies were only the immediate reaction to contact lenses and in the longer term, it is likely that these responses will vary as the eye adapts to the presence of the lenses.

Oxygen delivery through high-flow nasal cannulae increase end-expiratory lung volume and reduce respiratory rate in post-cardiac surgical patients

Background: High-flow nasal cannulae (HFNC) create positive oropharyngeal airway pressure but it is unclear how their use affects lung volume. Electrical impedance tomography (EIT) allows assessment of changes in lung volume by measuring changes in lung impedance. Primary objectives were to investigate the effects of HFNC on airway pressure (Paw) and end-expiratory lung volume (EELV), and to identify any correlation between the two. Secondary objectives were to investigate the effects of HFNC on respiratory rate (RR), dyspnoea, tidal volume and oxygenation; and the interaction between body mass index (BMI) and EELV. Methods: Twenty patients prescribed HFNC post-cardiac surgery were investigated. Impedance measures, Paw, PaO2/FiO2 ratio, RR and modified Borg scores were recorded first on low flow oxygen (nasal cannula or Hudson face mask) and then on HFNC. Results: A strong and significant correlation existed between Paw and end-expiratory lung impedance (EELI) (r=0.7, p<0.001). Compared with low flow oxygen, HFNC significantly increased EELI by 25.6% (95% CI 24.3, 26.9) and Paw by 3.0 cmH2O (95% CI 2.4, 3.7). RR reduced by 3.4 breaths per minute (95% CI 1.7, 5.2) with HFNC use, tidal impedance variation increased by 10.5% (95% CI 6.1, 18.3) and PaO2/FiO2 ratio improved by 30.6 mmHg (95% CI 17.9, 43.3). HFNC improved subjective dyspnoea scoring (p=0.023). Increases in EELI were significantly influenced by BMI, with larger increases associated with higher BMIs (p<0.001). Conclusions: This study suggests that HFNC improve dyspnoea and oxygenation by increasing both EELV and tidal volume, and are most beneficial in patients with higher BMIs.

Properties of lignin and poly(hydroxybutyrate) blends

The Queensland University of Technology (QUT) allows the presentation of a thesis for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the format of published or submitted papers, where such papers have been published, accepted or submitted during the period of candidature. This thesis is composed of Seven published/submitted papers and one poster presentation, of which five have been published and the other two are under review. This project is financially supported by the QUTPRA Grant. The twenty-first century started with the resurrection of lignocellulosic biomass as a potential substitute for petrochemicals. Petrochemicals, which enjoyed the sustainable economic growth during the past century, have begun to reach or have reached their peak. The world energy situation is complicated by political uncertainty and by the environmental impact associated with petrochemical import and usage. In particular, greenhouse gasses and toxic emissions produced by petrochemicals have been implicated as a significant cause of climate changes. Lignocellulosic biomass (e.g. sugarcane biomass and bagasse), which potentially enjoys a more abundant, widely distributed, and cost-effective resource base, can play an indispensible role in the paradigm transition from fossil-based to carbohydrate-based economy. Poly(3-hydroxybutyrate), PHB has attracted much commercial interest as a plastic and biodegradable material because some its physical properties are similar to those of polypropylene (PP), even though the two polymers have quite different chemical structures. PHB exhibits a high degree of crystallinity, has a high melting point of approximately 180°C, and most importantly, unlike PP, PHB is rapidly biodegradable. Two major factors which currently inhibit the widespread use of PHB are its high cost and poor mechanical properties. The production costs of PHB are significantly higher than for plastics produced from petrochemical resources (e.g. PP costs $US1 kg-1, whereas PHB costs $US8 kg-1), and its stiff and brittle nature makes processing difficult and impedes its ability to handle high impact. Lignin, together with cellulose and hemicellulose, are the three main components of every lignocellulosic biomass. It is a natural polymer occurring in the plant cell wall. Lignin, after cellulose, is the most abundant polymer in nature. It is extracted mainly as a by-product in the pulp and paper industry. Although, traditionally lignin is burnt in industry for energy, it has a lot of value-add properties. Lignin, which to date has not been exploited, is an amorphous polymer with hydrophobic behaviour. These make it a good candidate for blending with PHB and technically, blending can be a viable solution for price and reduction and enhance production properties. Theoretically, lignin and PHB affect the physiochemical properties of each other when they become miscible in a composite. A comprehensive study on structural, thermal, rheological and environmental properties of lignin/PHB blends together with neat lignin and PHB is the targeted scope of this thesis. An introduction to this research, including a description of the research problem, a literature review and an account of the research progress linking the research papers is presented in Chapter 1. In this research, lignin was obtained from bagasse through extraction with sodium hydroxide. A novel two-step pH precipitation procedure was used to recover soda lignin with the purity of 96.3 wt% from the black liquor (i.e. the spent sodium hydroxide solution). The precipitation process is presented in Chapter 2. A sequential solvent extraction process was used to fractionate the soda lignin into three fractions. These fractions, together with the soda lignin, were characterised to determine elemental composition, purity, carbohydrate content, molecular weight, and functional group content. The thermal properties of the lignins were also determined. The results are presented and discussed in Chapter 2. On the basis of the type and quantity of functional groups, attempts were made to identify potential applications for each of the individual lignins. As an addendum to the general section on the development of composite materials of lignin, which includes Chapters 1 and 2, studies on the kinetics of bagasse thermal degradation are presented in Appendix 1. The work showed that distinct stages of mass losses depend on residual sucrose. As the development of value-added products from lignin will improve the economics of cellulosic ethanol, a review on lignin applications, which included lignin/PHB composites, is presented in Appendix 2. Chapters 3, 4 and 5 are dedicated to investigations of the properties of soda lignin/PHB composites. Chapter 3 reports on the thermal stability and miscibility of the blends. Although the addition of soda lignin shifts the onset of PHB decomposition to lower temperatures, the lignin/PHB blends are thermally more stable over a wider temperature range. The results from the thermal study also indicated that blends containing up to 40 wt% soda lignin were miscible. The Tg data for these blends fitted nicely to the Gordon-Taylor and Kwei models. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR) evaluation showed that the miscibility of the blends was because of specific hydrogen bonding (and similar interactions) between reactive phenolic hydroxyl groups of lignin and the carbonyl group of PHB. The thermophysical and rheological properties of soda lignin/PHB blends are presented in Chapter 4. In this chapter, the kinetics of thermal degradation of the blends is studied using thermogravimetric analysis (TGA). This preliminary investigation is limited to the processing temperature of blend manufacturing. Of significance in the study, is the drop in the apparent energy of activation, Ea from 112 kJmol-1 for pure PHB to half that value for blends. This means that the addition of lignin to PHB reduces the thermal stability of PHB, and that the comparative reduced weight loss observed in the TGA data is associated with the slower rate of lignin degradation in the composite. The Tg of PHB, as well as its melting temperature, melting enthalpy, crystallinity and melting point decrease with increase in lignin content. Results from the rheological investigation showed that at low lignin content (.30 wt%), lignin acts as a plasticiser for PHB, while at high lignin content it acts as a filler. Chapter 5 is dedicated to the environmental study of soda lignin/PHB blends. The biodegradability of lignin/PHB blends is compared to that of PHB using the standard soil burial test. To obtain acceptable biodegradation data, samples were buried for 12 months under controlled conditions. Gravimetric analysis, TGA, optical microscopy, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), FT-IR, and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) were used in the study. The results clearly demonstrated that lignin retards the biodegradation of PHB, and that the miscible blends were more resistant to degradation compared to the immiscible blends. To obtain an understanding between the structure of lignin and the properties of the blends, a methanol-soluble lignin, which contains 3× less phenolic hydroxyl group that its parent soda lignin used in preparing blends for the work reported in Chapters 3 and 4, was blended with PHB and the properties of the blends investigated. The results are reported in Chapter 6. At up to 40 wt% methanolsoluble lignin, the experimental data fitted the Gordon-Taylor and Kwei models, similar to the results obtained soda lignin-based blends. However, the values obtained for the interactive parameters for the methanol-soluble lignin blends were slightly lower than the blends obtained with soda lignin indicating weaker association between methanol-soluble lignin and PHB. FT-IR data confirmed that hydrogen bonding is the main interactive force between the reactive functional groups of lignin and the carbonyl group of PHB. In summary, the structural differences existing between the two lignins did not manifest itself in the properties of their blends.

School education as social and economic governance : responsibilising communities through industry-school engagement

This article examines shifts in educational and social governance taking place in Queensland, Australia, through Industry School Engagement Strategy of Education Queensland and its Gateway Schools program. This significant educational initiative is set within the context of the social investment agenda first articulated in the education policy framework, Queensland State Education-2010. The article traces the historic extension of this governmental strategy through establishment of the Gateway Schools concept that brokers industry-school partnerships with global players in the Queensland economy. Industry sectors forming the partnerships include Minerals and Energy, Aerospace, Wine Tourism, Agribusiness, Manufacturing and Engineering, Building and Construction and ICT. We argue that this ‘post-bureaucratic’ model of schooling represents a new social settlement of neoliberal governance, in which educational outcomes align with economic objectives, and frame the conditions for community self-governance.

Inferior field loss increases rate of falls in older adults with glaucoma

PURPOSE: To examine the visual predictors of falls and injurious falls among older adults with glaucoma. METHODS: Prospective falls data were collected for 71 community-dwelling adults with primary open-angle glaucoma, mean age 73.9 ± 5.7 years, for one year using monthly falls diaries. Baseline assessment of central visual function included high-contrast visual acuity and Pelli-Robson contrast sensitivity. Binocular integrated visual fields were derived from monocular Humphrey Field Analyser plots. Rate ratios (RR) for falls and injurious falls with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were based on negative binomial regression models. RESULTS: During the one year follow-up, 31 (44%) participants experienced at least one fall and 22 (31%) experienced falls that resulted in an injury. Greater visual impairment was associated with increased falls rate, independent of age and gender. In a multivariate model, more extensive field loss in the inferior region was associated with higher rate of falls (RR 1.57, 95%CI 1.06, 2.32) and falls with injury (RR 1.80, 95%CI 1.12, 2.98), adjusted for all other vision measures and potential confounding factors. Visual acuity, contrast sensitivity, and superior field loss were not associated with the rate of falls; topical beta-blocker use was also not associated with increased falls risk. CONCLUSIONS: Falls are common among older adults with glaucoma and occur more frequently in those with greater visual impairment, particularly in the inferior field region. This finding highlights the importance of the inferior visual field region in falls risk and assists in identifying older adults with glaucoma at risk of future falls, for whom potential interventions should be targeted. KEY WORDS: glaucoma, visual field, visual impairment, falls, injury

Social Procurement: Promoting the sustainability of NPOs through the transformation of economic, social and cultural capital

Social procurement provides a key source of income for the Third Sector, and is vital for the sustainability of many nonprofit organisations. Social procurement involves the exchange of economic capital from one organisation, typically government (although for-profit and non-profit organisations can also purchase), with a nonprofit organisations in order to deliver other forms of. It is this transformation of economic capital into other forms of capital (cultural, human, social) in the social procurement process, which is the focus of this paper. Four case studies, which are representative of the four main types of social procurement, will be examined in order to trace how economic capital is transformed into other types of capital in each of these cases. In so doing, the paper will advance our understanding of social procurement theoretically, and lead to a wider discussion about the role of social procurement in ensuring the sustainability of nonprofit organisations, and the civil societies in which they operate.

Value co-creation in social marketing wellness services

Customer perceived value is concerned with the experiences of consumers when using a service and is often referred to in the context of service provision or on the basis of service quality (Auh, et al., 2007; Chang, 2008; Jackson, 2007; Laukkanen, 2007; Padgett & Mulvey, 2007; Shamdasani, Mukherjee & Malhotra, 2008). Understanding customer perceived value has benefits for social marketing and allows scholars and practitioners alike to identify why consumers engage in positive social behaviours through the use of services. Understanding consumers’ use of wellness services in particular is important, because the use of wellness services demonstrates the fulfilment of social marketing aims; performing pro-active, positive social behaviours that are of benefit to the individual and to society (Andreasen, 1994). As consumers typically act out of self-interest (Rothschild, 1999), this research posits that a value proposition must be made to consumers in order to encourage behavioural change. Thus, this research seeks to identify how value is created for consumers of wellness services in social marketing. This results in the overall research question of this research: How is value created in social marketing wellness services? A traditional method towards understanding value has been the adoption of an economic approach, which considers the utility gained and where value is a direct outcome of a cost-benefit analysis (Payne & Holt, 1999). However, there has since been a shift towards the adoption of an experiential approach in understanding value. This experiential approach considers the consumption experience of the consumer which extends beyond the service exchange and includes pre- and post-consumption stages (Russell-Bennett, Previte & Zainuddin, 2009). As such, this research uses an experiential approach to identify the value that exists in social marketing wellness services. Four dimensions of value have been commonly conceptualised and identified in the commercial marketing literature; functional, emotional, social, and altruistic value (Holbrook, 1994; Sheth, Newman & Gross, 1991; Sweeney & Soutar, 2001). It is not known if these value dimensions also exist in social marketing. In addition, sources of value said to influence value dimensions have been conceptualised in the literature. Sources of value such as information, interaction, environment, service, customer co-creation, and social mandate have been conceptually identified both in the commercial and social marketing literature (Russell-Bennet, Previte & Zainuddin, 2009; Smith & Colgate, 2007). However, it is not clear which sources of value contribute to the creation of value for users of wellness services. Thus, this research seeks to explore these relationships. This research was conducted using a wellness service context, specifically breast cancer screening services. The primary target consumer of these services is women aged 50 to 69 years old (inclusive) who have never been diagnosed with breast cancer. It is recommended that women in this target group have a breast screen every 2 years in order to achieve the most effective medical outcomes from screening. A two-study mixed method approach was utilised. Study 1 was a qualitative exploratory study that analysed individual-depth interviews with 25 information-rich respondents. The interviews were transcribed verbatim and analysed using NVivo 8 software. The qualitative results provided evidence of the existence of the four value dimensions in social marketing. The results also allowed for the development of a typology of experiential value by synthesising current understanding of the value dimensions, with the activity aspects of experiential value identified by Holbrook (1994) and Mathwick, Malhotra and Rigdon (2001). The qualitative results also provided evidence for the existence of sources of value in social marketing, namely information, interaction, environment and consumer participation. In particular, a categorisation of sources of value was developed as a result of the findings from Study 1, which identify organisational, consumer, and third party sources of value. A proposed model of value co-creation and a set of hypotheses were developed based on the results of Study 1 for further testing in Study 2. Study 2 was a large-scale quantitative confirmatory study that sought to test the proposed model of value co-creation and the hypotheses developed. An online-survey was administered Australia-wide to women in the target audience. A response rate of 20.1% was achieved, resulting in a final sample of 797 useable responses after removing ineligible respondents. Reliability and validity analyses were conducted on the data, followed by Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) in PASW18, followed by Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) in AMOS18. Following the preliminary analyses, the data was subject to Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) in AMOS18 to test the path relationships hypothesised in the proposed model of value creation. The SEM output revealed that all hypotheses were supported, with the exception of one relationship which was non-significant. In addition, post hoc tests revealed seven further significant non-hypothesised relationships in the model. The quantitative results show that organisational sources of value as well as consumer participation sources of value influence both functional and emotional dimensions of value. The experience of both functional and emotional value in wellness services leads to satisfaction with the experience, followed by behavioural intentions to perform the behaviour and use the service again. One of the significant non-hypothesised relationships revealed that emotional value leads to functional value in wellness services, providing further empirical evidence that emotional value features more prominently than functional value for users of wellness services. This research offers several contributions to theory and practice. Theoretically, this research addresses a gap in the literature by using social marketing theory to provide an alternative method of understanding individual behaviour in a domain that has been predominantly investigated in public health. This research also clarifies the concept of value and offers empirical evidence to show that value is a multi-dimensional construct with separate and distinct dimensions. Empirical evidence for a typology of experiential value, as well as a categorisation of sources of value is also provided. In its practical contributions, this research identifies a framework that is the value creation process and offers health services organisations a diagnostic tool to identify aspects of the service process that facilitate the value creation process.

Cellulosic ethanol from sugarcane bagasse in Australia : exploring industry feasibility through systems analysis, techno-economic assessment and pilot plant development

Overcoming many of the constraints to early stage investment in biofuels production from sugarcane bagasse in Australia requires an understanding of the complex technical, economic and systemic challenges associated with the transition of established sugar industry structures from single product agri-businesses to new diversified multi-product biorefineries. While positive investment decisions in new infrastructure requires technically feasible solutions and the attainment of project economic investment thresholds, many other systemic factors will influence the investment decision. These factors include the interrelationships between feedstock availability and energy use, competing product alternatives, technology acceptance and perceptions of project uncertainty and risk. This thesis explores the feasibility of a new cellulosic ethanol industry in Australia based on the large sugarcane fibre (bagasse) resource available. The research explores industry feasibility from multiple angles including the challenges of integrating ethanol production into an established sugarcane processing system, scoping the economic drivers and key variables relating to bioethanol projects and considering the impact of emerging technologies in improving industry feasibility. The opportunities available from pilot scale technology demonstration are also addressed. Systems analysis techniques are used to explore the interrelationships between the existing sugarcane industry and the developing cellulosic biofuels industry. This analysis has resulted in the development of a conceptual framework for a bagassebased cellulosic ethanol industry in Australia and uses this framework to assess the uncertainty in key project factors and investment risk. The analysis showed that the fundamental issue affecting investment in a cellulosic ethanol industry from sugarcane in Australia is the uncertainty in the future price of ethanol and government support that reduces the risks associated with early stage investment is likely to be necessary to promote commercialisation of this novel technology. Comprehensive techno-economic models have been developed and used to assess the potential quantum of ethanol production from sugarcane in Australia, to assess the feasibility of a soda-based biorefinery at the Racecourse Sugar Mill in Mackay, Queensland and to assess the feasibility of reducing the cost of production of fermentable sugars from the in-planta expression of cellulases in sugarcane in Australia. These assessments show that ethanol from sugarcane in Australia has the potential to make a significant contribution to reducing Australia’s transportation fuel requirements from fossil fuels and that economically viable projects exist depending upon assumptions relating to product price, ethanol taxation arrangements and greenhouse gas emission reduction incentives. The conceptual design and development of a novel pilot scale cellulosic ethanol research and development facility is also reported in this thesis. The establishment of this facility enables the technical and economic feasibility of new technologies to be assessed in a multi-partner, collaborative environment. As a key outcome of this work, this study has delivered a facility that will enable novel cellulosic ethanol technologies to be assessed in a low investment risk environment, reducing the potential risks associated with early stage investment in commercial projects and hence promoting more rapid technology uptake. While the study has focussed on an exploration of the feasibility of a commercial cellulosic ethanol industry from sugarcane in Australia, many of the same key issues will be of relevance to other sugarcane industries throughout the world seeking diversification of revenue through the implementation of novel cellulosic ethanol technologies.

Field study of air change and flow rate in six automobiles

For many people, a relatively large proportion of daily exposure to a multitude of pollutants may occur inside an automobile. A key determinant of exposure is the amount of outdoor air entering the cabin (i.e. air change or flow rate). We have quantified this parameter in six passenger vehicles ranging in age from 18 years to <1 year, at three vehicle speeds and under four different ventilation settings. Average infiltration into the cabin with all operable air entry pathways closed was between 1 and 33.1 air changes per hour (ACH) at a vehicle speed of 60 km/h, and between 2.6 and 47.3 ACH at 110 km/h, with these results representing the most (2005 Volkswagen Golf) and least air-tight (1989 Mazda 121) vehicles, respectively. Average infiltration into stationary vehicles parked outdoors varied between ~0 and 1.4 ACH and was moderately related to wind speed. Measurements were also performed under an air recirculation setting with low fan speed, while airflow rate measurements were conducted under two non-recirculate ventilation settings with low and high fan speeds. The windows were closed in all cases, and over 200 measurements were performed. The results can be applied to estimate pollutant exposure inside vehicles.