Bridging the gap between different statistical approaches: An integrated framework for modelling

This paper proposes a template for modelling complex datasets that integrates traditional statistical modelling approaches with more recent advances in statistics and modelling through an exploratory framework. Our approach builds on the well-known and long standing traditional idea of 'good practice in statistics' by establishing a comprehensive framework for modelling that focuses on exploration, prediction, interpretation and reliability assessment, a relatively new idea that allows individual assessment of predictions. The integrated framework we present comprises two stages. The first involves the use of exploratory methods to help visually understand the data and identify a parsimonious set of explanatory variables. The second encompasses a two step modelling process, where the use of non-parametric methods such as decision trees and generalized additive models are promoted to identify important variables and their modelling relationship with the response before a final predictive model is considered. We focus on fitting the predictive model using parametric, non-parametric and Bayesian approaches. This paper is motivated by a medical problem where interest focuses on developing a risk stratification system for morbidity of 1,710 cardiac patients given a suite of demographic, clinical and preoperative variables. Although the methods we use are applied specifically to this case study, these methods can be applied across any field, irrespective of the type of response.

The modeling of turbulent reactive flows based on multiple mapping conditioning

A new modeling approach-multiple mapping conditioning (MMC)-is introduced to treat mixing and reaction in turbulent flows. The model combines the advantages of the probability density function and the conditional moment closure methods and is based on a certain generalization of the mapping closure concept. An equivalent stochastic formulation of the MMC model is given. The validity of the closuring hypothesis of the model is demonstrated by a comparison with direct numerical simulation results for the three-stream mixing problem. (C) 2003 American Institute of Physics.

An electromagnetic-field method modeling of a radial line planar antenna with coupling probes

This communications describes an electromagnetic model of a radial line planar antenna consisting of a radial guide with one central probe and many peripheral probes arranged in concentric circles feeding an array of antenna elements such as patches or wire curls. The model takes into account interactions between the coupling probes while assuming isolation of radiating elements. Based on this model, computer programs are developed to determine equivalent circuit parameters of the feed network and the radiation pattern of the radial line planar antenna. Comparisons are made between the present model and the two-probe model developed earlier by other researchers.

Direction of Causation Modeling Between Cross-Sectional Measures of Parenting and Psychological Distress in Female Twins

Under certain conditions, cross-sectional analysis of cross-twin intertrait correlations can provide important information about the direction of causation (DOC) between two variables. A community-based sample of Australian female twins aged 18 to 45 years was mailed an extensive Health and Lifestyle Questionnaire (HLQ) that covered a wide range of personality and behavioral measures. Included were self-report measures of recent psychological distress and perceived childhood environment (PBI). Factor analysis of the PBI yielded three interpretable dimensions: Coldness, Overprotection, and Autonomy. Univariate analysis revealed that parental Overprotection and Autonomy were best explained by additive genetic, shared, and nonshared environmental effects (ACE), whereas the best-fitting model for PBI Coldness and the three measures of psychological distress (Depression, Phobic Anxiety, and Somatic Distress) included only additive genetic and nonshared environmental effects (AE). A common pathway model best explained the covariation between (1) the three PBI dimensions and (2) the three measures of psychological distress. DOC modeling between latent constructs of parenting and psychological distress revealed that a model which specified recollected parental behavior as the cause of psychological distress provided a better fit than a model which specified psychological distress as the cause of recollected parental behavior. Power analyses and limitations of the findings are discussed.

Modeling diffraction in free-space optical interconnects by the mode expansion method

Free-space optical interconnects (FSOIs), made up of dense arrays of vertical-cavity surface-emitting lasers, photodetectors and microlenses can be used for implementing high-speed and high-density communication links, and hence replace the inferior electrical interconnects. A major concern in the design of FSOIs is minimization of the optical channel cross talk arising from laser beam diffraction. In this article we introduce modifications to the mode expansion method of Tanaka et al. [IEEE Trans. Microwave Theory Tech. MTT-20, 749 (1972)] to make it an efficient tool for modelling and design of FSOIs in the presence of diffraction. We demonstrate that our modified mode expansion method has accuracy similar to the exact solution of the Huygens-Kirchhoff diffraction integral in cases of both weak and strong beam clipping, and that it is much more accurate than the existing approximations. The strength of the method is twofold: first, it is applicable in the region of pronounced diffraction (strong beam clipping) where all other approximations fail and, second, unlike the exact-solution method, it can be efficiently used for modelling diffraction on multiple apertures. These features make the mode expansion method useful for design and optimization of free-space architectures containing multiple optical elements inclusive of optical interconnects and optical clock distribution systems. (C) 2003 Optical Society of America.

Influence of magnetically-induced E-fields on cardiac electric activity during MRI: A modeling study

In modern magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), patients are exposed to strong, time-varying gradient magnetic fields that may be able to induce electric fields (E-fields)/currents in tissues approaching the level of physiological significance. In this work we present theoretical investigations into induced E-fields in the thorax, and evaluate their potential influence on cardiac electric activity under the assumption that the sites of maximum E-field correspond to the myocardial stimulation threshold (an abnormal circumstance). Whole-body cylindrical and planar gradient coils were included in the model. The calculations of the induced fields are based on an efficient, quasi-static, finite-difference scheme and an anatomically realistic, whole-body model. The potential for cardiac stimulation was evaluated using an electrical model of the heart. Twelve-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) signals were simulated and inspected for arrhythmias caused by the applied fields for both healthy and diseased hearts. The simulations show that the shape of the thorax and the conductive paths significantly influence induced E-fields. In healthy patients, these fields are not sufficient to elicit serious arrhythmias with the use of contemporary gradient sets. However, raising the strength and number of repeated switching episodes of gradients, as is certainly possible in local chest gradient sets, could expose patients to increased risk. For patients with cardiac disease, the risk factors are elevated. By the use of this model, the sensitivity of cardiac pathologies, such as abnormal conductive pathways, to the induced fields generated by an MRI sequence can be investigated. (C) 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Water table waves in an unconfined aquifer: Experiments and modeling

[1] Comprehensive measurements are presented of the piezometric head in an unconfined aquifer during steady, simple harmonic oscillations driven by a hydrostatic clear water reservoir through a vertical interface. The results are analyzed and used to test existing hydrostatic and nonhydrostatic, small-amplitude theories along with capillary fringe effects. As expected, the amplitude of the water table wave decays exponentially. However, the decay rates and phase lags indicate the influence of both vertical flow and capillary effects. The capillary effects are reconciled with observations of water table oscillations in a sand column with the same sand. The effects of vertical flows and the corresponding nonhydrostatic pressure are reasonably well described by small-amplitude theory for water table waves in finite depth aquifers. That includes the oscillation amplitudes being greater at the bottom than at the top and the phase lead of the bottom compared with the top. The main problems with respect to interpreting the measurements through existing theory relate to the complicated boundary condition at the interface between the driving head reservoir and the aquifer. That is, the small-amplitude, finite depth expansion solution, which matches a hydrostatic boundary condition between the bottom and the mean driving head level, is unrealistic with respect to the pressure variation above this level. Hence it cannot describe the finer details of the multiple mode behavior close to the driving head boundary. The mean water table height initially increases with distance from the forcing boundary but then decreases again, and its asymptotic value is considerably smaller than that previously predicted for finite depth aquifers without capillary effects. Just as the mean water table over-height is smaller than predicted by capillarity-free shallow aquifer models, so is the amplitude of the second harmonic. In fact, there is no indication of extra second harmonics ( in addition to that contained in the driving head) being generated at the interface or in the interior.

Surface stickiness of drops of carbohydrate and organic acid solutions during convective drying: Experiments and modeling

Drying kinetics of low molecular weight sugars such as fructose, glucose, sucrose and organic acid such as citric acid and high molecular weight carbohydrate such as maltodextrin (DE 6) were determined experimentally using single drop drying experiments as well as predicted numerically by solving the mass and heat transfer equations. The predicted moisture and temperature histories agreed with the experimental ones within 6% average relative (absolute) error and average difference of +/- 1degreesC, respectively. The stickiness histories of these drops were determined experimentally and predicted numerically based on the glass transition temperature (T-g) of surface layer. The model predicted the experimental observations with good accuracy. A nonsticky regime for these materials during spray drying is proposed by simulating a drop, initially 120 mum in diameter, in a spray drying environment.

Evaluating a model of parental influence on youth physical activity

Objective: To test a conceptual model linking parental physical activity orientations, parental support for physical activity, and children's self-efficacy perceptions with physical activity participation. Participants and Setting: The sample consisted of 380 students in grades 7 through 12 (mean age, 14.0 +/- 1.6 years) and their parents. Data collection took place during the fall of 1996. Main Outcome Measures: Parents completed a questionnaire assessing their physical activity habits, enjoyment of physical activity, beliefs regarding the importance of physical activity, and supportive behaviors for their child's physical activity. Students completed a 46-item inventory assessing physical activity during the previous 7 days and a 5-item physical activity self-efficacy scale. The model was tested via observed variable path analysis using structural equation modeling techniques (AMOS 4.0). Results: An initial model, in which parent physical activity orientations predicted child physical activity via parental support and child self-efficacy, did not provide an acceptable fit to the data. Inclusion of a direct path from parental support to child physical activity and deletion of a nonsignificant path from parental physical activity to child physical activity significantly improved model fit. Standardized path coefficients for the revised model ranged from 0.17 to 0.24, and all were significant at the p < 0.0001 level. Conclusions: Parental support was an important correlate of youth physical activity, acting directly or indirectly through its influence on self-efficacy. Physical activity interventions targeted at youth should include and evaluate the efficacy of individual-level and community-level strategies to increase parents' capacity to provide instrumental and motivational support for their children's physical activity.

Rates of electronic energy transfer in conformationally flexible bichromophoric macrocyclic complexes: a combined experimental and molecular modeling study

Electronic energy transfer (EET) rate constants between a naphthalene donor and anthracene acceptor in [ZnL4a](ClO4)(2) and [ZnL4b](ClO4)(2) were determined by time-resolved fluorescence where L-4a and L-4b are the trans and cis isomers of 6-((anthracen-9-yl-methyl)amino)-6,13-dimethyl-13-((naphthalen-1-yl-methyl)amino)-1,4,8,11-tetraazacyclotetradecane, respectively. These isomers differ in the relative disposition of the appended chromophores with respect to the macrocyclic plane. The trans isomer has an energy transfer rate constant (k(EET)) of 8.7 x 10(8) s(-1), whereas that of the cis isomer is significantly faster (2.3 x 10(9) s(-1)). Molecular modeling was used to determine the likely distribution of conformations in CH3CN solution for these complexes in an attempt to identify any distance or orientation dependency that may account for the differing rate constants observed. The calculated conformational distributions together with analysis by H-1 NMR for the [ZnL4a](2+) trans complex in the common trans-III N-based isomer gave a calculated Forster rate constant close to that observed experimentally. For the [ZnL4b](2+) cis complex, the experimentally determined rate constant may be attributed to a combination of trans-Ill and trans-I N-based isomeric forms of the complex in solution.

A yield architecture framework to explain adaptation of pearl millet to environmental stress

Functional knowledge of the physiological basis of crop adaptation to stress is a prerequisite for exploiting specific adaptation to stress environments in breeding programs. This paper presents an analysis of yield components for pearl millet, to explain the specific adaptation of local landraces to stress environments in Rajasthan, India. Six genotypes, ranging from high-tillering traditional landraces to low-tillering open-pollinated modern cultivars, were grown in 20 experiments, covering a range of nonstress and drought stress patterns. In each experiment, yield components (particle number, grain number, 100 grain mass) were measured separately for main shoots, basal tillers, and nodal tillers. Under optimum conditions, landraces had a significantly lower grain yield than the cultivars, but no significant differences were observed at yield levels around 1 ton ha(-1). This genotype x environment interaction for grain yield was due to a difference in yield strategy, where landraces aimed at minimising the risk of a crop failure under stress conditions, and modem cultivars aimed at maximising yield potential under optimum conditions. A key aspect of the adaptation of landraces was the small size of the main shoot panicle, as it minimised (1) the loss of productive tillers during stem elongation; (2) the delay in anthesis if mid-season drought occurs; and (3) the reduction in panicle productivity of the basal tillers under stress. In addition, a low investment in structural panicle weight, relative to vegetative crop growth rate, promoted the production of nodal tillers, providing a mechanism to compensate for reduced basal tiller productivity if stress occurred around anthesis. A low maximum 100 grain mass also ensured individual grain mass was little affected by environmental conditions. The strategy of the high-tillering landraces carries a yield penalty under optimum conditions, but is expected to minimise the risk of a crop failure, particularly if mid-season drought stress occurs. The yield architecture of low-tillering varieties, by contrast, will be suited to end-of-season drought stress, provided anthesis is early. Application of the above adaptation mechanisms into a breeding program could enable the identification of plant types that match the prevalent stress patterns in the target environments. (C) 2003 E.J. van Oosterom. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Aglomeração econômica e disparidade salarial no Espírito Santo : teoria e evidência a partir de um enfoque da Nova Geografia Econômica

O trabalho buscou analisar questões de desigualdade regional no Espírito Santo através da linha de pesquisa denominada Nova Geografia Econômica (NGE). Uma forma de realizar essa análise é através do estudo da relação entre diferenciais de salário e mercado potencial. Mais precisamente, o trabalho procurou verificar o impacto de fatores geográficos de segunda natureza – mercado potencial – nos salário médios municipais. Inicialmente, por meio de uma Análise Exploratória de Dados Espaciais, verificou-se que os salários são maiores próximos às regiões com alto mercado potencial (litoral/RMGV). Por meio da utilização de técnicas de estatística e econometria espacial foi possível observar para os anos de 2000 e 2010 a existência de uma estrutura espacial de salários no Espírito Santo. O coeficiente de erro autorregressivo foi positivo e estatisticamente significativo, indicando o modelo SEM (spatial error model) como o mais apropriado para modelar os efeitos espaciais. Os resultados indicam ainda que não só fatores educacionais afetam os salários, fatores geográficos de segunda natureza possuem um efeito até maior quando comparados aos primeiros. Conclui-se, como demonstra o modelo central da NGE que, forças exclusivamente de mercado nem sempre levam ao equilíbrio equalizador dos rendimentos, pelo contrário, levam à conformação de uma estrutura do tipo centro-periferia com diferença persistente de rendimentos entre as regiões. Adicionalmente, verifica-se que os municípios que apresentam maior salário, maior mercado potencial e melhores indicadores sociais são àqueles localizados no litoral do estado, mais precisamente os municípios próximos à RMGV. Sendo assim, o trabalho reforça a necessidade de que se pense estratégias que fomentem a criação de novas centralidades no Espírito Santo, a fim de atuar na redução das desigualdades regionais. O trabalho se insere num grupo de vários outros estudos que analisaram questões de desigualdade e concentração produtiva no Espírito Santo. A contribuição está na utilização do referencial teórico da NGE, que ainda não havia sido empregada para o estado, e na utilização de técnicas de estatística espacial e econometria espacial.

Modeling Carbon Nanotube Electrical Properties in CNT/Polymer Composites

In this work it is demonstrated that the capacitance between two cylinders increases with the rotation angle and it has a fundamental influence on the composite dielectric constant. The dielectric constant is lower for nematic materials than for isotropic ones and this can be attributed to the effect of the filler alignment in the capacitance. The effect of aspect ratio in the conductivity is also studied in this work. Finally, based on previous work and by comparing to results from the literature it is found that the electrical conductivity in this type of composites is due to hopping between nearest fillers resulting in a weak disorder regime that is similar to the single junction expression.