The organization of seismicity on fault networks.

Although models of homogeneous faults develop seismicity that has a Gutenberg-Richter distribution, this is only a transient state that is followed by events that are strongly influenced by the nature of the boundaries. Models with geometrical inhomogeneities of fracture thresholds can limit the sizes of earthquakes but now favor the characteristic earthquake model for large earthquakes. The character of the seismicity is extremely sensitive to distributions of inhomogeneities, suggesting that statistical rules for large earthquakes in one region may not be applicable to large earthquakes in another region. Model simulations on simple networks of faults with inhomogeneities of threshold develop episodes of lacunarity on all members of the network. There is no validity to the popular assumption that the average rate of slip on individual faults is a constant. Intermediate term precursory activity such as local quiescence and increases in intermediate-magnitude activity at long range are simulated well by the assumption that strong weakening of faults by injection of fluids and weakening of asperities on inhomogeneous models of fault networks is the dominant process; the heat flow paradox, the orientation of the stress field, and the low average stress drop in some earthquakes are understood in terms of the asperity model of inhomogeneous faulting.

Geometric incompatibility in a fault system.

Interdependence between geometry of a fault system, its kinematics, and seismicity is investigated. Quantitative measure is introduced for inconsistency between a fixed configuration of faults and the slip rates on each fault. This measure, named geometric incompatibility (G), depicts summarily the instability near the fault junctions: their divergence or convergence ("unlocking" or "locking up") and accumulation of stress and deformations. Accordingly, the changes in G are connected with dynamics of seismicity. Apart from geometric incompatibility, we consider deviation K from well-known Saint Venant condition of kinematic compatibility. This deviation depicts summarily unaccounted stress and strain accumulation in the region and/or internal inconsistencies in a reconstruction of block- and fault system (its geometry and movements). The estimates of G and K provide a useful tool for bringing together the data on different types of movement in a fault system. An analog of Stokes formula is found that allows determination of the total values of G and K in a region from the data on its boundary. The phenomenon of geometric incompatibility implies that nucleation of strong earthquakes is to large extent controlled by processes near fault junctions. The junctions that have been locked up may act as transient asperities, and unlocked junctions may act as transient weakest links. Tentative estimates of K and G are made for each end of the Big Bend of the San Andreas fault system in Southern California. Recent strong earthquakes Landers (1992, M = 7.3) and Northridge (1994, M = 6.7) both reduced K but had opposite impact on G: Landers unlocked the area, whereas Northridge locked it up again.

Strength of the Iberian intraplate lithosphere: Cenozoic deformations and seismicity

Previous studies about the strength of the lithosphere in the center of Iberia fail to resolve the depth of earthquakes because of the rheological uncertainties. Therefore, new contributions are considered (the crustal structure from a density model) and several parameters (tectonic regime, mantle rheology, strain rate) are checked in this paper to properly examine the role of lithospheric strength in the intraplate seismicity and the Cenozoic evolution. The strength distribution with depth, the integrated strength, the effective elastic thickness and the seismogenic thickness have been calculated by a finite element modelling of the lithosphere across the Central System mountain range and the bordering Duero and Madrid sedimentary basins. Only a dry mantle under strike-slip/extension and a strain rate of 10-15 s-1, or under extension and 10-16 s-1, causes a strong lithosphere. The integrated strength and the elastic thickness are lower in the mountain chain than in the basins. This heterogeneity has been maintained since the Cenozoic and determine the mountain uplift and the biharmonic folding of the Iberian lithosphere during the Alpine deformations. The seismogenic thickness bounds the seismic activity in the upper–middle crust, and the decreasing crustal strength from the Duero Basin towards the Madrid Basin is related to a parallel increase in Plio–Quaternary deformations and seismicity. However, elasto–plastic modelling shows that current African–Eurasian convergence is resolved elastically or ductilely, which accounts for the low seismicity recorded in this region.

Relationship between piezometric level and ground deformations measured by means of DInSAR in the Vega Media of the Segura River (Spain)

Differential SAR Interferometry (DInSAR) is a remote sensing method with the well demonstrated ability to monitor geological hazards like earthquakes, landslides and subsidence. Among all these hazards, subsidence involves the settlement of the ground surface affecting wide areas. Frequently, subsidence is induced by overexploitation of aquifers and constitutes a common problem that affects developed societies. The excessive pumping of underground water decreases the piezometric level in the subsoil and, as a consequence, increases the effective stresses with depth causing a consolidation of the soil column. This consolidation originates a settlement of ground surface that must be withstood by civil structures built on these areas. In this paper we make use of an advanced DInSAR approach - the Coherent Pixels Technique (CPT) [1] - to monitor subsidence induced by aquifer overexploitation in the Vega Media of the Segura River (SE Spain) from 1993 to the present. 28 ERS-1/2 scenes covering a time interval of about 10 years were used to study this phenomenon. The deformation map retrieved with CPT technique shows settlements of up to 80 mm at some points of the studied zone. These values agree with data obtained by means of borehole extensometers, but not with the distribution of damaged buildings, well points and basements, because the occurrence of damages also depends on the structural quality of the buildings and their foundations. The most interesting relationship observed is the one existing between piezometric changes, settlement evolution and local geology. Three main patterns of ground surface and piezometric level behaviour have been distinguished for the study zone during this period: 1) areas where deformation occurs while ground conditions remain altered (recent deformable sediments), 2) areas with no deformation (old and non-deformable materials), and 3) areas where ground deformation mimics piezometric level changes (expansive soils). The temporal relationship between deformation patterns and soil characteristics has been analysed in this work, showing a delay between them. Moreover, this technique has allowed the measurement of ground subsidence for a period (1993-1995) where no instrument information was available.

Evaluación de la susceptibilidad de las laderas a sufrir inestabilidades inducidas por terremotos: aplicación a la cuenca de drenaje del río Serpis (provincia de Alicante)

Se ha realizado un análisis para estimar la susceptibilidad de las laderas, en suelos de la cuenca de drenaje del río Serpis, a sufrir inestabilidades inducidas por terremotos. Para ello, se ha utilizado el denominado método de Newmark, que ha sido convenientemente modificado para contemplar la variabilidad que, de forma natural, se observa en las propiedades geotécnicas de los materiales. En el cálculo, se ha efectuado una simulación Monte Carlo, donde todas las propiedades geotécnicas que intervienen son tratadas como variables aleatorias. Los resultados obtenidos están expresados como probabilidad de que la aceleración crítica del talud sea menor o igual que 0.1g. Las susceptibilidades más elevadas se observan cuando los materiales están secos, pero en tal caso la extensión de territorio afectado es pequeña. En cambio, cuando el suelo está saturado se observa que gran parte del territorio presenta susceptibilidad Media o Baja, incluso con pendientes de 6 – 10º, frente a susceptibilidad Muy Baja – Nula, que los caracteriza cuando se encuentra seco. Se ha analizado también la posición de las zonas de mayor susceptibilidad con respecto a elementos constructivos existentes en el área.

Using the damage from 2010 Haiti earthquake for calibrating vulnerability models of typical structures in Port-au-Prince (Haiti)

After the 2010 Haiti earthquake, that hits the city of Port-au-Prince, capital city of Haiti, a multidisciplinary working group of specialists (seismologist, geologists, engineers and architects) from different Spanish Universities and also from Haiti, joined effort under the SISMO-HAITI project (financed by the Universidad Politecnica de Madrid), with an objective: Evaluation of seismic hazard and risk in Haiti and its application to the seismic design, urban planning, emergency and resource management. In this paper, as a first step for a structural damage estimation of future earthquakes in the country, a calibration of damage functions has been carried out by means of a two-stage procedure. After compiling a database with observed damage in the city after the earthquake, the exposure model (building stock) has been classified and through an iteratively two-step calibration process, a specific set of damage functions for the country has been proposed. Additionally, Next Generation Attenuation Models (NGA) and Vs30 models have been analysed to choose the most appropriate for the seismic risk estimation in the city. Finally in a next paper, these functions will be used to estimate a seismic risk scenario for a future earthquake.

Noticias de ataques y destrucciones en Orihuela durante el período andalusí (ss. VIII-XIII)

Tras resumirse "Los elementos esenciales de la trama urbana de Orihuela", se estudian los principales hechos históricos durante el período islámico de la ciudad de Orihuela "s. VIII-XIII) en que hay noticia de ataques militares a la ciudad y destrucciones : El ataque de los normandos a Orihuela en 245 H ./859 e.C.; Aceifa del califa ‘Abd al-Raḥmān III al-Nāṣir contra Orihuela y sus rebeldes; La "fitnat al-barbar" o guerra civil que acabó con el califato andalusí; El terremoto posterior a 440 H/1048-9 e.C. que asoló toda la vega del río Segura y finalmente la conquista cristiana de Orihuela. Como conclusiones para el estudio del urbanismo musulmán de Orihuela se demuestra que solo hubo destrucciones en el trazado urbano de importancia como resultado del mencionado terremoto que asoló y destruyó las ciudades de Murcia, Orihuela y toda la Vega Baja del río Segura.

La incuestionabilidad del riesgo: vulnerabilidad social y riesgo sísmico en municipios turísticos

Los estudios sobre la vulnerabilidad social han ampliado la gestión de los riesgos naturales tradicionalmente direccionada a la amenaza natural y soluciones tecnológicas. Sin embargo la visión dominante se mantiene hegemónica sin un análisis adecuado de las causas que originan vulnerabilidad social. Este artículo propone un nuevo argumento, organizado en torno al concepto de la incuestionabilidad del riesgo, entendido como la incapacidad cultural y política de objetar el modelo socioeconómico imperante en donde residen las causas de fondo productoras de riesgo. Para concretar el concepto, a modo de ejemplo, se analizan el Plan de Actuación Municipal frente al Riesgo Sísmico de la ciudad de Torrevieja.

Seismically-induced landslides by a low-magnitude earthquake: The Mw 4.7 Ossa De Montiel event (central Spain)

The Ossa de Montiel (2015/02/23, Mw 4.7) earthquake struck the central part of Spain and was felt far from the epicenter (> 300 km). Even though ground shaking was slight (Imax = V, EMS-98 scale), the earthquake triggered many small rock falls, most at distances of 20–30 km from the epicenter, greater than previously recorded in S Spain (16 km) for earthquakes of similar magnitudes. The comparative analysis of available data for this event with records from other quakes of the Betic cordillera (S and SE Spain) seems to indicate a slower pattern of ground-motion attenuation in central Spain. This could explain why slope instabilities occurred at larger distances. Instability was more frequent, and occurred at larger distances, in road cuts than in natural slopes, implying that such slope types are highly susceptible to seismically induced landslides.

A first approach to earthquake damage estimation in Haiti: advices to minimize the seismic risk

This study is in the frame of the cooperative line that several Spanish Universities and other foreign partners started with the Haitian government in 2010. According to our studies (Benito et al. in An evaluation of seismic hazard in La Hispaniola, after the 2010 Haiti earthquake, 33rd General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission, Moscow, Russia, 2012) and recent scientific literature, the earthquake hazard in Haiti remains high (Calais et al. in Nat Geosci 3:794–799, 2010). In view of this, we wonder whether the country is currently ready to face another earthquake. In this sense, we estimated several damage scenarios in Port-au-Prince and Cap-Haitien associated to realistic possible major earthquakes. Our findings show that almost 50 % of the building stock of both cities would result uninhabitable due to structural damage. Around 80 % of the buildings in both cities have reinforced concrete structure with concrete block infill; however, the presence of masonry buildings becomes significant (between 25 and 45 % of the reinforced concrete buildings) in rural areas and informal settlements on the outskirts, where the estimated damage is higher. The influence of the soil effect on the damage spatial distribution is evident in both cities. We have found that the percentage of uninhabitable buildings in soft soil areas may be double the percentage obtained in nearby districts located in hard soil. These results reveal that a new seismic catastrophe of similar or even greater consequences than the 2010 Haiti earthquake might happen if the earthquake resilience is not improved in the country. Nowadays, the design of prevention actions and mitigation policies is the best instrument the society has to face seismic risk. In this sense, the results of this research might contribute to define measures oriented to earthquake risk reduction in Haiti, which should be a real priority for national and international institutions.

John Winthrop's proposal respecting electrical globes and jars, ca. 1758

In this proposal, John Winthrop explains the need to replace damaged "electric globes" used in the College's collection of scientific apparatus. He states that Benjamin Franklin, at the time residing in London, was willing to seek replacement globes for the College's collection. Winthrop then proceeds to assert that the College should acquire "square bottles, of a moderate size, fitted in a wooden box, like what they call case bottles for spirits" instead of the large jars included in the scientific apparatus, because those jars cracked frequently.

San Francisco, California, Earthquake and Fire, 1906 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: [San Francisco, California, showing the area destroyed by fire, April 18-21, 1906]. It was published by R.J. Waters & Co. in 1906. Scale [ca. 1:21,000]. Covers the northeastern portion of the city showing burnt district in red. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the California Zone III State Plane Coordinate System NAD83 (in Feet) (Fipszone 0403). All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as the burnt district, roads, drainage, selected public buildings, wharves, and more. Relief shown by contours. This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from The Harvard Map Collection as part of the Imaging the Urban Environment project. Maps selected for this project represent major urban areas and cities of the world, at various time periods. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features at a large scale. The selection represents a range of regions, originators, ground condition dates, scales, and purposes.

Controlo fuzzy semi-activo para aparelhos de amortecimento variável na protecção sísmica

Trabalho apresentado no 10º Congresso Nacional de Sismologia e Engenharia Sísmica, 20-22 abril de 2016, Ponta Delgada, Açores, Portugal

Application of the Equivalent Static Analysis method to the design of a steel frame structure with added viscous dampers

All the structures designed by engineers are vulnerable to natural disasters including floods and earthquakes. The energy released during strong ground motions should be dissipated by structural elements. Before 1990’s, this energy was expected to be dissipated through the beams and columns which at the same time were a part of gravity-load-resisting system. However, the main disadvantage of this idea was that gravity-resisting-frame was not repairable. Hence, during 1990’s, the idea of designing passive energy dissipation systems, including dampers, emerged. At the beginning, main problem was lack of guidelines for passive energy dissipation systems. Although till 2000 many guidelines and procedures where published, yet most of them were based on complicated analysis which was not so convenient for engineers and practitioners. In order to solve this problem recently some alternative design methods are proposed including 1. Lopez Garcia (2001) simple procedure for optimal damper configuration in MDOF structures 2. Christopoulos and Filiatrault (2006) trial and error procedure 3. Silvestri et al. (2010) Five-Step Method. 4. Palermo et al. (2015) Direct Five-Step Method. 5. Palermo et al. (2016) Simplified Equivalent Static Analysis (ESA). In this study, effectiveness and differences between last three alternative methods have been evaluated.

(Table 1) AMS radiocarbon ages from ODP Sites 169-1033 and 169-1034

This paper explores the paleoseismic record potentially preserved in the upper 40 m of hydraulic piston cores collected in 1996 at two sites in Saanich Inlet, British Columbia, during ocean drilling program (ODP) Leg 169S. The ODP cores are missing 1-2 m of water-rich sediment directly underlying the seafloor, but this sediment is preserved in shorter piston cores collected in 1989 and 1991. The upper part of the ODP cores consists of rhythmically laminated (varved) marine mud with intercalated massive beds, interpreted to be debris flow deposits. Some of the debris flow deposits are linked to past earthquakes, including the 1946 Vancouver Island earthquake (M7.2), a great (M8-9) plate-boundary earthquake at the Cascadia subduction zone in January 1700, and a large crustal or plate-boundary earthquake about 1000 yr ago. Earthquakes may also be responsible for debris flows in about AD 1600, 1500, 1250, 1150, 850, 450, 350, 180, and BC 200, 220, 500, 900, and 1050. If so, the average recurrence interval for moderate to large earthquakes, which trigger debris flows in Saanich Inlet, is about 150 yr. This recurrence interval is broadly consistent with the frequency of moderate to large earthquakes in the region during the historical period. Debris flows, however, can also be triggered by non-seismic processes, making it difficult to assemble a complete earthquake record from the Saanich Inlet cores. We propose that extensive debris flow deposits, emplaced by single large failures or many smaller coincident failures, probably have a seismic origin.