511 resultados para EXTRAPOLATION
Resumo:
The piles are one of the most important types of solution adopted for the foundation of buildings. They are responsible for transmitting to the soil in deepe r and resistant layers loads from structures. The interaction of the foundation element with the soil is a very important variable, making indispensable your domain in order to determine the strength of the assembly and establish design criteria for each c ase of application of the pile. In this research analyzes were performed f rom experiments load tests for precast concrete piles and inve stigations of soil of type SPT, a study was performed for obtaining the ultimate load capacity of the foundation through methods extrapolation of load - settlement curve , semi - empirical and theoretic . After that, were realized comparisons between the different methods used for two types of soil a granular behavior and other cohesive. For obtaining soil paramet ers to be used i n the methods were established empirical correlations with the standard penetration number (NSPT). The charge - settlement curves of the piles are also analyzed. In the face of established comparisons was indicated the most reliable semiempirical method Déco urt - Quaresma as the most reliable for estimating the tensile strength for granular and cohesive soils. Meanwhile, among the methods studied extrapolation is recommended method of Van der Veen as the most appropriate for predicting the tensile strength.
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Jaques Lacan, the thinker who proposes a return to the fundamentals of psychoanalysis in Freud states that the math would face as a privileged way of transmission of knowledge by the science. Although he was a follower of the mathematization of nature as the foundation of modern science, for him this principle does not imply eliminating the subject that produces it. That would be equivalent to saying that there can not be a language, whatever, even the math, that may "erases" the subject assumption in science. In the text The science and the truth we will try to introduce the idea, not so simple, by the way, the truth as the cause. Citing the framework of the causes in Aristotle, Lacan will speak of a homology between the truth as formal cause, in the case of science, and the truth as material cause, on the side of psychoanalysis. Among its aims with this text, he wants to establish that the unconscious of the subject would be none other than the subject of science. The famous incompleteness theorems of logical-mathematical Kurt Gödel enter here as a chapter of this issue. Recognized as true watershed, these theorems have to be remembered as revealing even outside the mathematical environment, and Lacan himself is not indifferent to this. He makes mention of Gödel's name and draws some observations apparently modest support for his own theory. Since some technical sophisticated knowledges awaits the reader who intends understand this supposed corroboration that Gödel provides to psychoanalysis, introduce the student of Lacan in the use he makes of the incompleteness theorems is the objective of this work. In The science and the truth, which fits us to locate the name of Gödel, one must question how seize such an idea without incurring the extrapolation and abuse of mathematical knowledge, almost trivial in this case. Thus, this paper aims to introduce the reader to the reasoning behind the theorems of Gödel, acquaint him about the Lacan’s mathematical claims, and indicate how to proceed using this implicit math in the text The science and the truth.
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In the last 16 years emerged in Brazil a segment of independent producers with focus on onshore basins and shallow waters. Among the challenges of these companies is the development of fields with projects with a low net present value (NPV). The objective of this work was to study the technical-economical best option to develop an oil field in the Brazilian Northeast using reservoir simulation. Real geology, reservoir and production data was used to build the geological and simulation model. Due to not having PVT analysis, distillation method test data known as the true boiling points (TBP) were used to create a fluids model generating the PVT data. After execution of the history match, four development scenarios were simulated: the extrapolation of production without new investments, the conversion of a producing well for immiscible gas injection, the drilling of a vertical well and the drilling of a horizontal well. As a result, from the financial point of view, the gas injection is the alternative with lower added value, but it may be viable if there are environmental or regulatory restrictions to flaring or venting the produced gas into the atmosphere from this field or neighboring accumulations. The recovery factor achieved with the drilling of vertical and horizontal wells is similar, but the horizontal well is a project of production acceleration; therefore, the present incremental cumulative production with a minimum rate of company's attractiveness is higher. Depending on the crude oil Brent price and the drilling cost, this option can be technically and financially viable.
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The stabilization of energy supply in Brazil has been a challenge for the operation of the National Interconnected System in face of hydrological and climatic variations. Thermoelectric plants have been used as an emergency source for periods of water scarcity. The utilization of fossil fuels, however, has elevated the cost of electricity. On the other hand, offshore wind energy has gained importance in the international context and is competitive enough to become a possibility for future generation in Brazil. In this scenario, the main goal of this thesis was to investigate the magnitude and distribution of offshore wind resources, and also verify the possibilities of complementing hydropower. A data series of precipitation from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) Blended Sea Winds from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC/NOAA) were used. According to statistical criteria, three types of complementarity were found in the Brazilian territory: hydro × hydro, wind × wind and hydro × wind. It was noted a significant complementarity between wind and hydro resources (r = -0.65), mainly for the hydrographical basins of the southeast and central regions with Northeastern Brazil winds. To refine the extrapolation of winds over the ocean, a method based on the Monin-Obukhov theory was used to model the stability of the atmospheric boundary layer. Objectively Analyzed Air-Sea Flux (OAFLUX) datasets for heat flux, temperature and humidity, and also sea level pressure data from NCEP/NCAR were used. The ETOPO1 from the National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC/NOAA) provided bathymetric data. It was found that shallow waters, between 0-20 meters, have a resource estimated at 559 GW. The contribution of wind resources to hydroelectric reservoir operation was investigated with a simplified hybrid wind-hydraulic model, and reservoir level, inflow, outflow and turbine production data. It was found that the hybrid system avoids drought periods, continuously saving water from reservoirs through wind production. Therefore, from the results obtained, it is possible to state that the good winds from the Brazilian coast can, besides diversifying the electric matrix, stabilize the hydrological fluctuations avoiding rationing and blackouts, reducing the use of thermal power plants, increasing the production cost and emission of greenhouse gases. Public policies targeted to offshore wind energy will be necessary for its full development.
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Calmette Bay within Marguerite Bay along the western side of the Antarctic Peninsula contains one of the most continuous flights of raised beaches described to date in Antarctica. Raised beaches extend to 40.8 m above sea level (masl) and are thought to reflect glacial isostatic adjustment due to the retreat of the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet. Using optically stimulated luminescence (OSL), we dated quartz extracts from cobble surfaces buried in raised beaches at Calmette Bay. The beaches are separated into upper and lower beaches based on OSL ages, geomorphology, and sedimentary fabric. The two sets of beaches are separated by a prominent scarp. One of our OSL ages from the upper beaches dates to 9.3 thousand years ago (ka; as of 1950) consistent with previous extrapolation of sea-level data and the time of ice retreat from inner Marguerite Bay. However, four of the seven ages from the upper beaches date to the timing of glaciation. We interpret these ages to represent reworking of beaches deposited prior to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) by advancing and retreating LGM ice. Ages from the lower beaches record relative sea-level fall due to Holocene glacial-isostatic adjustment. We suggest a Holocene marine limit of 21.7 masl with an age of 5.5-7.3 ka based on OSL ages from Calmette Bay and other sea-level constraints in the area. A marine limit at 21.7 masl implies half as much relative sea-level change in Marguerite Bay during the Holocene as suggested by previous sea-level reconstructions. No evidence for a relative sea-level signature of neoglacial events, such as a decrease followed by an increase in RSL fall due to ice advance and retreat associated with the Little Ice Age, is found within Marguerite Bay indicating either: (1) no significant neoglacial advances occurred within Marguerite Bay; (2) rheological heterogeneity allows part of the Antarctic Peninsula (i.e. the South Shetland Islands) to respond to rapid ice mass changes while other regions are incapable of responding to short-lived ice advances; or (3) the magnitude of neoglacial events within Marguerite Bay is too small to resolve through relative sea-level reconstructions. Although the application of reconstructing sea-level histories using OSL-dated raised beach deposits provides a better understanding of the timing and nature of relative sea-level change in Marguerite Bay, we highlight possible problems associated with using raised beaches as sea-level indices due to post-depositional reworking by storm waves.
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Arctic lowland landscapes have been modified by thermokarst lake processes throughout the Holocene. Thermokarst lakes form as a result of ice-rich permafrost degradation and they may expand over time through thermal and mechanical shoreline erosion. We studied proximal and distal sedimentary records from a thermokarst lake located on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska to reconstruct the impact of catchment dynamics and morphology on the lacustrine depositional environment and to quantify carbon accumulation in thermokarst lake sediments. Short cores were collected for analysis of pollen, sedimentological and geochemical proxies. Radiocarbon and Pb/Cs dating, as well as extrapolation of measured historic lake expansion rates, were applied to estimate a minimum lake age of ~ 1,400 calendar years BP. The pollen record is in agreement with the young lake age as it does not include evidence of the "alder high" that occurred in the region ~ 4.0 cal ka BP. The lake most likely initiated from a remnant pond in a drained thermokarst lake basin (DTLB) and deepened rapidly as evidenced by accumulation of laminated sediments. Increasing oxygenation of the water column as shown by higher Fe/Ti and Fe/S ratios in the sediment indicate shifts in ice regime with increasing water depth. More recently, the sediment source changed as the thermokarst lake expanded through lateral permafrost degradation, alternating from redeposited DTLB sediments, to increased amounts of sediment from eroding, older upland deposits, followed by a more balanced combination of both DTLB and upland sources. The characterizing shifts in sediment sources and depositional regimes in expanding thermokarst lakes were therefore archived in the thermokarst lake sedimentary record. This study also highlights the potential for Arctic lakes to recycle old carbon from thawing permafrost and thermokarst processes.
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An accurate and simple technique for determining the focal length of a lens is presented. It consists of measuring the period of the fringes produced by a diffraction grating at the near field when it is illuminated with a beam focused by the unknown lens. In paraxial approximation, the period of the fringes varies linearly with the distance. After some calculations, a simple extrapolation of data is performed to obtain the locations of the principal plane and the focal plane of the lens. Thus, the focal length is obtained as the distance between the two mentioned planes. The accuracy of the method is limited by the collimation degree of the incident beam and by the algorithm used to obtain the period of the fringes. We have checked the technique with two commercial lenses, one convergent and one divergent, with nominal focal lengths (+100±1) mm and (−100±1) mm respectively. We have experimentally obtained the focal lengths resulting into the interval given by the manufacturer but with an uncertainty of 0.1%, one order of magnitude lesser than the uncertainty given by the manufacturer.
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We analyze the physical-chemical surface properties of single-slit, single-groove subwavelength-structured silver films with high-resolution transmission electron microscopy and calculate exact solutions to Maxwell’s equations corresponding to recent far-field interferometry experiments using these structures. Contrary to a recent suggestion the surface analysis shows that the silver films are free of detectable contaminants. The finite-difference time-domain calculations, in excellent agreement with experiment, show a rapid fringe amplitude decrease in the near zone (slit-groove distance out to 3–4 wavelengths). Extrapolation to slit-groove distances beyond the near zone shows that the surface wave evolves to the expected bound surface plasmon polariton (SPP). Fourier analysis of these results indicates the presence of a distribution of transient, evanescent modes around the SPP that dephase and dissipate as the surface wave evolves from the near to the far zone.
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Background. The optimum approach for infectious complication surveillance for cardiac implantable electronic device (CIED) procedures is unclear. We created an automated surveillance tool for infectious complications after CIED procedures. Methods. Adults having CIED procedures between January 1, 2005 and December 31, 2011 at Duke University Hospital were identified retrospectively using International Classification of Diseases, 9th revision (ICD-9) procedure codes. Potential infections were identified with combinations of ICD-9 diagnosis codes and microbiology data for 365 days postprocedure. All microbiology-identified and a subset of ICD-9 code-identified possible cases, as well as a subset of procedures without microbiology or ICD-9 codes, were reviewed. Test performance characteristics for specific queries were calculated. Results. Overall, 6097 patients had 7137 procedures. Of these, 1686 procedures with potential infectious complications were identified: 174 by both ICD-9 code and microbiology, 14 only by microbiology, and 1498 only by ICD-9 criteria. We reviewed 558 potential cases, including all 188 microbiology-identified cases, 250 randomly selected ICD-9 cases, and 120 with neither. Overall, 65 unique infections were identified, including 5 of 250 reviewed cases identified only by ICD-9 codes. Queries that included microbiology data and ICD-9 code 996.61 had good overall test performance, with sensitivities of approximately 90% and specificities of approximately 80%. Queries with ICD-9 codes alone had poor specificity. Extrapolation of reviewed infectious rates to nonreviewed cases yields an estimated rate of infection of 1.3%. Conclusions. Electronic queries with combinations of ICD-9 codes and microbiologic data can be created and have good test performance characteristics for identifying likely infectious complications of CIED procedures.
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Among the Siberian shelf seas the Kara Sea is most strongly influenced by riverine runoff with nearly 1500 km fresh water discharge per year. This fresh water, discharged mainly by Ob and Yenisei, contains about 3.1 * 106 and 4.6 * 106 tons of total organic carbon per year, respectively (Gordeev et al. 1996). Little is known about the relevance of this organic material for biological communities, neither for the Kara Sea nor for the adjacent deep basins of the central Arctic Ocean. Aiming at elucidating the fate of fluvial matter transported from the rivers via estuaries into the central Arctic Ocean and the relative importance of marine organic matter being produced such information is crucial. Here we present calculations on the organic carbon demand of the Kara Sea macrozoobenthos based on measured biomass (total wet weight [ww] per 0.25 m ) from quantitative box corer samples and empirical relationships between biomass, annual production, annual respiration, and carbon remineralisation. This bottom-up approach may serve as a first estimate of the carbon remineralization potential of a given zoobenthos community (or area) as long as no data on in situ respiration rates are available. Our data basis comprises 54 stations sampled in summer seasons 1997, 1999 and 2000 in the Kara Sea at water depths between 10 and 68 m. The geographical area represented by stations analysed covers roughly 178 000 km**2, which is about one fifth of the total Kara Sea area. In this area, 290 species of invertebrate macrozoobenthos were identified with polychaeta, Crustacea, mollusca and echinodermata being the most abundant. For all stations analysed, mean biomass values ranged between 4.3 and 778.1 g ww/m**2 with organic carbon demands between 3.5 and 43.2 mg C/m**2/d. For the area of 178 000 km2 a preliminary total consumption of 1.4 * 10**6t Corg/y (equivalent to 21.5 mg C/m**2/d) was calculated for the macrozoobenthos. An extrapolation of our data would lead to an annual carbon demand of about 5-7 * 106 t for the whole Kara Sea macrozoobenthos (or 15.5-21.7 mg C/m2/d).
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Deep drilling into the marine sea floor has uncovered a vast sedimentary ecosystem of microbial cells (Parkes et al., 1994, doi:10.1038/371410a0; D'Hondt et al., 2004, doi:10.1126/science.1101155). Extrapolation of direct counts of stained microbial cells to the total volume of habitable marine subsurface sediments suggests that between 56 Pg (Parkes et al., 1994, doi:10.1038/371410a0) and 303 Pg (Whitman et al., 1998) of cellular carbon could be stored in this largely unexplored habitat. From recent studies using various culture-independent techniques, no clear picture has yet emerged as to whether Archaea or Bacteria are more abundant in this extensive ecosystem (Schippers et al., doi:10.1038/nature03302; Inagaki et al., doi:10.1073/pnas.0511033103 ; Mauclaire et al., doi:10.1111/j.1472-4677.2004.00035.x; Biddle et al., doi:10.1073/pnas.0600035103). Here we show that in subsurface sediments buried deeper than 1 m in a wide range of oceanographic settings at least 87% of intact polar membrane lipids, biomarkers for the presence of live cells (Biddle et al., doi:10.1073/pnas.0600035103; Sturt et al., 2004, doi:10.1002/rcm.1378), are attributable to archaeal membranes, suggesting that Archaea constitute a major fraction of the biomass. Results obtained from modified quantitative polymerase chain reaction and slot-blot hybridization protocols support the lipid-based evidence and indicate that these techniques have previously underestimated archaeal biomass. The lipid concentrations are proportional to those of total organic carbon. On the basis of this relationship, we derived an independent estimate of amounts of cellular carbon in the global marine subsurface biosphere. Our estimate of 90 Pg of cellular carbon is consistent, within an order of magnitude, with previous estimates, and underscores the importance of marine subsurface habitats for global biomass budgets.
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Phenotypic plasticity describes the phenotypic adjustment of the same genotype to different environmental conditions and is best described by a reaction norm. We focus on the effect of ocean acidification (OA) on inter - and intraspecific reaction norms of three globally important phytoplankton species (Emiliania huxleyi, Gephyrocapsa oceanica, Chaetoceros affinis). Despite significant differences in growth rates between the species, they all showed a high potential for phenotypic buffering (no significant difference in growth rates between ambient and high CO2 condition). Only three coccolithophore genotypes showed a reduced growth in high CO2. Largely diverging responses to high CO2 of single coc-colithophore genotypes compared to the respective mean species responses, however, raise the question if an extrapolation to the population level is possible from single genotype experiments. We therefore compared the mean response of all tested genotypes to a total species response comprising the same genotypes, which was not significantly different in the coccolithophores. Assessing species reac-tion norm to different environmental conditions on short time scale in a genotype-mix could thus reduce sampling effort while increasing predictive power.
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About one-third of the carbon dioxide (CO2) released into the atmosphere as a result of human activity has been absorbed by the oceans, where it partitions into the constituent ions of carbonic acid. This leads to ocean acidification, one of the major threats to marine ecosystems and particularly to calcifying organisms such as corals, foraminifera and coccolithophores. Coccolithophores are abundant phytoplankton that are responsible for a large part of modern oceanic carbonate production. Culture experiments investigating the physiological response of coccolithophore calcification to increased CO2 have yielded contradictory results between and even within species. Here we quantified the calcite mass of dominant coccolithophores in the present ocean and over the past forty thousand years, and found a marked pattern of decreasing calcification with increasing partial pressure of CO2 and concomitant decreasing concentrations of CO3. Our analyses revealed that differentially calcified species and morphotypes are distributed in the ocean according to carbonate chemistry. A substantial impact on the marine carbon cycle might be expected upon extrapolation of this correlation to predicted ocean acidification in the future. However, our discovery of a heavily calcified Emiliania huxleyi morphotype in modern waters with low pH highlights the complexity of assemblage-level responses to environmental forcing factors.
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Twenty-one core samples from DSDP/IPOD Leg 63 were analyzed for products of chlorophyll diagenesis. In addition to the tetrapyrrole pigments, perylene and carotenoid pigments were isolated and identified. The 16 core samples from the San Miguel Gap site (467) and the five from the Baja California borderland location (471) afforded the unique opportunity of examining tetrapyrrole diagenesis in clay-rich marine sediments that are very high in total organic matter. The chelation reaction, whereby free-base porphyrins give rise to metalloporphyrins (viz., nickel), is well documented within the downhole sequence of sediments from the San Miguel Gap (Site 467). Recognition of unique arrays of highly dealkylated copper and nickel ETIO-porphyrins, exhibiting nearly identical carbonnumber homologies (viz., C-23 to C-30; mode = C-26), enabled subtraction of this component (thought to be derived from an allochthonous source) and thus permitted description of the actual in situ diagenesis of autochthonous chlorophyll derivatives.
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How do the magnetic fields of massive stars evolve over time? Are their gyrochronological ages consistent with ages inferred from evolutionary tracks? Why do most stars predicted to host Centrifugal Magnetospheres (CMs) display no H$\alpha$ emission? Does plasma escape from CMs via centrifugal breakout events, or by a steady-state leakage mechanism? This thesis investigates these questions via a population study with a sample of 51 magnetic early B-type stars. The longitudinal magnetic field \bz~was measured from Least Squares Deconvolution profiles extracted from high-resolution spectropolarimetric data. New rotational periods $P_{\rm rot}$ were determined for 15 stars from \bz, leaving only 3 stars for which $P_{\rm rot}$ is unknown. Projected rotational velocities \vsini~were measured from multiple spectral lines. Effective temperatures and surface gravities were measured via ionization balances and line profile fitting of H Balmer lines. Fundamental physical parameters, \bz, \vsini, and $P_{\rm rot}$ were then used to determine radii, masses, ages, dipole oblique rotator model, stellar wind, magnetospheric, and spindown parameters using a Monte Carlo approach that self-consistently calculates all parameters while accounting for all available constraints on stellar properties. Dipole magnetic field strengths $B_{\rm d}$ follow a log-normal distribution similar to that of Ap stars, and decline over time in a fashion consistent with the expected conservation of fossil magnetic flux. $P_{\rm rot}$ increases with fractional main sequence age, mass, and $B_{\rm d}$, as expected from magnetospheric braking. However, comparison of evolutionary track ages to maximum spindown ages $t_{\rm S,max}$ shows that initial rotation fractions may be far below critical for stars with $M_*>10 M_\odot$. Computing $t_{\rm S,max}$ with different mass-loss prescriptions indicates that the mass-loss rates of B-type stars are likely much lower than expected from extrapolation from O-type stars. Stars with H$\alpha$ in emission and absorption occupy distinct regions in the updated rotation-magnetic confinement diagram: H$\alpha$-bright stars are found to be younger, more rapidly rotating, and more strongly magnetized than the general population. Emission strength is sensitive both to the volume of the CM and to the mass-loss rate, favouring leakage over centrifugal breakout.