Tempos de espera cirúrgicos: situação em Portugal e determinantes

RESUMO - Objectivos Um dos problemas mais comuns nos sistemas de saúde e particularmente naqueles que têm uma estrutura predominantemente pública são os elevados Tempos Espera (TE) para cirurgia. Este projecto tem como principal objectivo identificar a importância relativa em Portugal das determinantes do TE cirúrgico. Metodologia Para clarificar essa importância, aplicou-se um questionário desenvolvido pelo Fraser Institute, utilizado para a análise anual dos TE no Canadá, recorrendo a um painel de peritos e através da realização da técnica Delphi, procurou-se consensualizar quais as determinantes das Listas Espera (LE), mais importantes. Para ilustrar a diversidade de perspectivas, recorreu-se também à análise de trabalhos realizados por inúmeras organizações, onde pudemos observar e recolher distintas abordagens, políticas e técnicas da questão das LE em países com diferentes tipos de sistemas de saúde. Resultados Os resultados obtidos revelam que os peritos consideraram a disponibilidade de tempo no Bloco Operatório (BO) e a de anestesiologistas, como as determinantes com maior impacto no aumento das LE. Conclusões Dos dados recebidos relativos ao Sistema Integrado Gestão Inscritos Cirurgia (SIGIC), bem como dos retirados de relatórios oficiais, concluímos que as LE cirúrgicas tiveram evolução positiva, nomeadamente na redução da mediana do TE da Lista Inscritos Cirurgia (LIC) (meses), no entanto, os objectivos dos Tempos Máximos Resposta Garantidos (TMRG) não estão a ser cumpridos. A análise das diferentes iniciativas e estratégias políticas para combater as LE, permitiu-nos sugerir caminhos a explorar, tendo como objectivo minorar o problema das LE: cuidados integrados, optimização da eficiência na utilização da capacidade instalada e maior aposta na cirurgia de ambulatório.

How effective is dog culling in controlling zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis? a critical evaluation of the science, politics and ethics behind this public health policy

INTRODUCTION: Zoonotic kala-azar, a lethal disease caused by protozoa of the genus Leishmania is considered out of control in parts of the world, particularly in Brazil, where transmission has spread to cities throughout most of the territory and mortality presents an increasing trend. Although a highly debatable measure, the Brazilian government regularly culls seropositive dogs to control the disease. Since control is failing, critical analysis concerning the actions focused on the canine reservoir was conducted. METHODS: In a review of the literature, a historical perspective focusing mainly on comparisons between the successful Chinese and Soviet strategies and the Brazilian approach is presented. In addition, analyses of the principal studies regarding the role of dogs as risk factors to humans and of the main intervention studies regarding the efficacy of the dog killing strategy were undertaken. Brazilian political reaction to a recently published systematic review that concluded that the dog culling program lacked efficiency and its effect on public policy were also reviewed. RESULTS: No firm evidence of the risk conferred by the presence of dogs to humans was verified; on the contrary, a lack of scientific support for the policy of killing dogs was confirmed. A bias for distorting scientific data towards maintaining the policy of culling animals was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Since there is no evidence that dog culling diminishes visceral leishmaniasis transmission, it should be abandoned as a control measure. Ethical considerations have been raised regarding distorting scientific results and the killing of animals despite minimal or absent scientific evidence

Fiscal policy under financial stress: A threshold VAR approach

The purpose of the project is to measure the impact of fiscal policy on the Portuguese GDP and how it may vary according to the state of the financial market. A Threshold VAR model is presented in which the two regimes are found using a financial stress index that divides the economy into a situation of financial stress and financial stability.

L'Oreal acquisition policy: The Body Shop case study

The Work Project I present focuses on the analysis of L’Oréal acquisition policy, trying to outline if the M&A deals it has led over the last 14 years have succeeded in creating value. By replicating the model proposed by Todd Hazelkorn, Marc Zenner and Anil Shivdasani in their paper “Creating Value with Mergers and Acquisitions”, I analyzed the 29 M&A deals that L’Oréal has led worldwide, understanding the common factors able to explain the success of such transactions. Further, I focused on The Body Shop case study, a highly criticized and controversial acquisition that has proved to be profitable and able to create value.

Product relatedness role on driving industrial policy success

This thesis aims to study how product relatedness to the current pattern of specialization influences the success of industrial policies in underdeveloped sectors. Drawing from Hausmann and Klinger (2006), this work extends the existing literature on the importance of proximity spillovers to explain economic development by focusing on underdeveloped sectors. We find that investment's success in an underdeveloped sector is more likely if it is highly related to the current pattern of specialization. However, heterogeneity amongst sectors is remarkable. Moreover, industrial policy cases are sometimes successful despite the bad odds provided by this criterion, suggesting further factors should be considered.

Macroeconomic effects of monetary policy in the Eurozone

To study the macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy across the different countries of the eurozone, I develop an identification scheme to disentangle conventional from non-conventional policy shocks, using futures contracts on overnight interest rates and the size of the European Central Bank balance sheet. Setting these shocks as endogenous variables in a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, along with the CPI and the employment rate, estimated impulse response functions of policy to macroeconomic variables are studied. I find that unconventional policy shocks generated mixed effects in inflation but had a positive impact on employment, with the exception of Portugal, Spain, Greece and Italy where the employment response is close to zero or negative. The heterogeneity that characterizes the responses shows that the monetary policy measures taken in recent years were not sufficient to stabilize the economies of the eurozone countries under more severe economic conditions.

Genetic diversity of dengue virus serotypes 1 and 2 in the State of Paraná, Brazil, based on a fragment of the capsid/premembrane junction region

INTRODUCTION: The precise identification of the genetic variants of the dengue virus is important to understand its dispersion and virulence patterns and to identify the strains responsible for epidemic outbreaks. This study investigated the genetic variants of the capsid-premembrane junction region fragment in the dengue virus serotypes 1 and 2 (DENV1-2). METHODS: Samples from 11 municipalities in the State of Paraná, Brazil, were provided by the Central Laboratory of Paraná. They were isolated from the cell culture line C6/36 (Aedes albopictus) and were positive for indirect immunofluorescence. Ribonucleic acid (RNA) extracted from these samples was submitted to the reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and nested PCR. RESULTS: RT-PCR revealed that 4 of the samples were co-infected with both serotypes. The isolated DENV-1 sequences were 95-100% similar to the sequences of other serotype 1 strains deposited in GenBank. Similarly, the isolated DENV-2 sequences were 98-100% similar to other serotype 2 sequences in GenBank. According to our neighbor-joining tree, all strains obtained in this study belonged to genotype V of DENV-1. The DENV-2 strains, by contrast, belonged to the American/Asian genotypes. CONCLUSIONS: The monitoring of circulating strains is an important tool to detect the migration of virus subtypes involved in dengue epidemics.

Search-for-yield in Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds and monetary policy

This paper studies the effects of monetary policy on mutual fund risk taking using a sample of Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds in the 2000-2012 period. Firstly I estimate time-varying measures of risk exposure (betas) for the individual funds, for the benchmark portfolio, as well as for a representative equally-weighted portfolio, through 24-month rolling regressions of a two-factor model with two systematic risk factors: interest rate risk (TERM) and default risk (DEF). Next, in the second phase, using the estimated betas, I try to understand what portion of the risk exposure is in excess of the benchmark (active risk) and how it relates to monetary policy proxies (one-month rate, Taylor residual, real rate and first principal component of a cross-section of government yields and rates). Using this methodology, I provide empirical evidence that Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds respond to accommodative monetary policy by significantly increasing exposure, in excess of their benchmarks, to default risk rate and slightly to interest risk rate as well. I also find that the increase in funds’ risk exposure to gain a boost in return (search-for-yield) is more pronounced following the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, indicating that the current historic low interest rates may incentivize excessive risk taking. My results suggest that monetary policy affects the risk appetite of non-bank financial intermediaries.

Effects of quantitative easing on the USA economy: A test for policy effectiveness

The catastrophic disruption in the USA financial system in the wake of the financial crisis prompted the Federal Reserve to launch a Quantitative Easing (QE) programme in late 2008. In line with Pesaran and Smith (2014), I use a policy effectiveness test to assess whether this massive asset purchase programme was effective in stimulating the economic activity in the USA. Specifically, I employ an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL), in order to obtain a counterfactual for the USA real GDP growth rate. Using data from 1983Q1 to 2009Q4, the results show that the beneficial effects of QE appear to be weak and rather short-lived. The null hypothesis of policy ineffectiveness is not rejected, which suggests that QE did not have a meaningful impact on output growth.

Diversity and dynamics of airborne fungi in São Luis, State of Maranhão, Brazil

Introduction: This study aimed to identify airborne fungi in São Luis, Maranhão, Brazil, to determine the prevalent genera and to correlate these genera with the area and season. Methods: In total, 1,510 colony-forming units (CFUs) of airborne fungi were isolated from the north, south, east and west sides and from the center of the city from January to December 2007. The samples were collected on Petri dishes that were exposed to the fungi by the gravitational method. Results: Twenty genera of fungi were isolated; the most common were Aspergillus (33.5%), Penicillium (18.8%), Cladosporium (14.2%), Curvularia (10.6%) and Fusarium (7.6%). The CFUs of the fungi were statistically significant (p < 0.0001). Fungal biological diversity was present all year, without any large seasonal variations but with slight increases in May, August and September. Conclusions: The fungal genera identified in this study were correlated with natural systems and could be useful when evaluating the impact of environmental changes on the region.

Competition policy costs to firms

The existence of competition policy forces companies to adjust their behaviour. This is also costly. Using a database from a company on contracts, I will try to estimate if a specific competition policy disposition, supply contracts cannot be longer than 60 months, has costs for the coffee suppliers operating in the Portuguese “on-trade” coffee market. The estimation method used in this paper will be OLS. The results suggest that limiting the duration of exclusivity contracts to 60 months can be harmful to the coffee suppliers and it can even seriously affect the market functioning. Key

Energy efficiency in energy policy: Empirical evidence of direct rebound effect in Portuguese household's demand for electricity

This project the direct rebound effect for the electricity demand in Portugal. While we find evidence of such an effect, the estimations also reflect the institutional arrangement that has characterized the electricity market in the country. Also, issues related to energy efficiency promotion are addressed in general putting into context the case study developed.

The influence of the area of the Serra da Mesa Hydroelectric Plant, State of Goiás, on the frequency and diversity of anophelines (Diptera: Culicidae): a study on the effect of a reservoir

INTRODUCTION: Bioecological aspects of anophelines (Diptera: Culicidae) near areas under the direct influence of the hydroelectric plant reservoir of Serra da Mesa in Goiás, Brazil, were analyzed. METHODS: Samples were collected at the surrounding dam area during the phases before and after reservoir impoundment. The influence of climatic and environmental factors on the occurrence of Anopheles darlingi, Anopheles albitarsis, Anopheles triannulatus, Anopheles oswaldoi and Anopheles evansae was assessed using Pearson's correlations with indicators for richness and diversity as well as the index of species abundance (ISA) and the standardized index of species abundance (SISA). RESULTS: The highest anopheline density occurred during the phase after filling the tank; however, no direct correlation with the climatic factors was observed during this stage. The reservoir formation determined the incidence of the anopheline species. An. darlingi was the predominant species (SISA = 1.00). CONCLUSIONS: The significant difference (p < 0.05) observed between the species incidence during the different reservoir phases demonstrates the environmental effect of the reservoir on anophelines.

Deflation and monetary policy: A look into Japan and the Euro Area

With more than two decades of weak economic performance since the bubble burst in the ‘90s, the Japanese deflationary scenario has become the economic fate every developed economy fears to become. As the euro area continues to experience sustained low inflation, studying the Japanese monetary policy may shed light on how to prevent persistent deflation. Using an SVAR methodology to understand the monetary transmission mechanism, we find some evidence that the euro area may possess characteristics that would eventually lead to a deflationary scenario. The extent of whether it would suffer the same Japanese fate would depend on how macroeconomic policies are timely coordinated as a response to its liquidity problem and increasing public debt across member states.