Understanding the low-temperature limitations to forest growth through calibration of a forest dynamics model with tree-ring data

The sensitivity of altitudinal and latitudinal tree-line ecotones to climate change, particularly that of temperature, has received much attention. To improve our understanding of the factors affecting tree-line position, we used the spatially explicit dynamic forest model TreeMig. Although well-suited because of its landscape dynamics functions, TreeMig features a parabolic temperature growth response curve, which has recently been questioned. and the species parameters are not specifically calibrated for cold temperatures. Our main goals were to improve the theoretical basis of the temperature growth response curve in the model and develop a method for deriving that curve's parameters from tree-ring data. We replaced the parabola with an asymptotic curve, calibrated for the main species at the subalpine (Swiss Alps: Pinus cembra, Larix decidua, Picea abies) and boreal (Fennoscandia: Pinus sylvestris, Betula pubescens, P. abies) tree-lines. After fitting new parameters, the growth curve matched observed tree-ring widths better. For the subalpine species, the minimum degree-day sum allowing, growth (kDDMin) was lowered by around 100 degree-days; in the case of Larix, the maximum potential ring-width was increased to 5.19 mm. At the boreal tree-line, the kDDMin for P. sylvestris was lowered by 210 degree-days and its maximum ring-width increased to 2.943 mm; for Betula (new in the model) kDDMin was set to 325 degree-days and the maximum ring-width to 2.51 mm; the values from the only boreal sample site for Picea were similar to the subalpine ones, so the same parameters were used. However, adjusting the growth response alone did not improve the model's output concerning species' distributions and their relative importance at tree-line. Minimum winter temperature (MinWiT, mean of the coldest winter month), which controls seedling establishment in TreeMig, proved more important for determining distribution. Picea, P. sylvestris and Betula did not previously have minimum winter temperature limits, so these values were set to the 95th percentile of each species' coldest MinWiT site (respectively -7, -11, -13). In a case study for the Alps, the original and newly calibrated versions of TreeMig were compared with biomass data from the National Forest Inventor), (NFI). Both models gave similar, reasonably realistic results. In conclusion, this method of deriving temperature responses from tree-rings works well. However, regeneration and its underlying factors seem more important for controlling species' distributions than previously thought. More research on regeneration ecology, especially at the upper limit of forests. is needed to improve predictions of tree-line responses to climate change further.

Implication of Nerve Growth Factor in intestinal mucosal mast cell activity and colonic motor alterations in a model of ovalbumin-induced gut dysfunction in rats

We determined NGF involvement in MMCs and colonic motor alterations in an ovalbumin (OVA)-induced gut dysfunction model in rats. Animals received OVA (6 weeks), with/without simultaneous K252a (TrkA antagonist) treatment. MMCs, rat mast cell protease II (RMCPII) levels and colonic contractility in vitro were assessed. OVA increased MMC density and RMCPII concentration. Spontaneous contractility was similar in both groups and inhibited by K252a. Carbachol responses were increased by OVA in a K252a-independent manner. NO-synthase inhibition increased spontaneous activity in OVA-treated animals in a K252a-dependent manner. These observations support an involvement of NGF in the functional changes observed in this model.

Anti-vascular endothelial growth factor acts on retinal microglia/macrophage activation in a rat model of ocular inflammation.

PURPOSE: To evaluate whether anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) neutralizing antibodies injected in the vitreous of rat eyes influence retinal microglia and macrophage activation. To dissociate the effect of anti-VEGF on microglia and macrophages subsequent to its antiangiogenic effect, we chose a model of acute intraocular inflammation. METHODS: Lewis rats were challenged with systemic lipopolysaccharide (LPS) injection and concomitantly received 5 µl of rat anti-VEGF-neutralizing antibody (1.5 mg/ml) in the vitreous. Rat immunoglobulin G (IgG) isotype was used as the control. The effect of anti-VEGF was evaluated at 24 and 48 h clinically (uveitis scores), biologically (cytokine multiplex analysis in ocular media), and histologically (inflammatory cell counts on eye sections). Microglia and macrophages were immunodetected with ionized calcium-binding adaptor molecule 1 (IBA1) staining and counted based on their differential shapes (round amoeboid or ramified dendritiform) on sections and flatmounted retinas using confocal imaging and automatic quantification. Activation of microglia was also evaluated with inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS) and IBA1 coimmunostaining. Coimmunolocalization of VEGF receptor 1 and 2 (VEGF-R1 and R2) with IBA1 was performed on eye sections with or without anti-VEGF treatment. RESULTS: Neutralizing rat anti-VEGF antibodies significantly decreased ocular VEGF levels but did not decrease the endotoxin-induced uveitis (EIU) clinical score or the number of infiltrating cells and cytokines in ocular media (interleukin [IL]-1β, IL-6, tumor necrosis factor [TNF]-α, and monocyte chemoattractant protein [MCP]-1). Eyes treated with anti-VEGF showed a significantly decreased number of activated microglia and macrophages in the retina and the choroid and decreased iNOS-positive microglia. IBA1-positive cells expressed VEGF-R1 and R2 in the inflamed retina. CONCLUSIONS: Microglia and macrophages expressed VEGF receptors, and intravitreous anti-VEGF influenced the microglia and macrophage activation state. Taking into account that anti-VEGF drugs are repeatedly injected in the vitreous of patients with retinal diseases, part of their effects could result from unsuspected modulation of the microglia activation state. This should be further studied in other ocular pathogenic conditions and human pathology.

How does the body-scale model affect back-calculated growth: the example of arctic charr Salvelinus alpinus (L.) of Lake Geneva (Switzerland)

When back-calculating fish length from scale measurements, the choice of the body-scale relationship is a fundamental step. Using data from the arctic charrSalvelinus alpinus (L.) of Lake Geneva (Switzerland) we show the need for a curvilinear model, on both statistical and biological grounds. From several 2-parameters models, the log-linear relationship appears to provide the best fit. A 3-parameters, Bertalanffy model did not improve the fit. We show moreover that using the proportional model would lead to important misinterpretations of the data.

World population growth and fertility patterns, 1960-2000. A simple model explaining the evolution of world's fertility during the second half of the 20th Century

In this paper we attempt to describe the general reasons behind the world populationexplosion in the 20th century. The size of the population at the end of the century inquestion, deemed excessive by some, was a consequence of a dramatic improvementin life expectancies, attributable, in turn, to scientific innovation, the circulation ofinformation and economic growth. Nevertheless, fertility is a variable that plays acrucial role in differences in demographic growth. We identify infant mortality, femaleeducation levels and racial identity as important exogenous variables affecting fertility.It is estimated that in poor countries one additional year of primary schooling forwomen leads to 0.614 child less per couple on average (worldwide). While it may bepossible to identify a global tendency towards convergence in demographic trends,particular attention should be paid to the case of Africa, not only due to its differentdemographic patterns, but also because much of the continent's population has yet toexperience improvement in quality of life generally enjoyed across the rest of theplanet.

Atlas-based segmentation of pathological MR brain images using a model of lesion growth.

We propose a method for brain atlas deformation in the presence of large space-occupying tumors, based on an a priori model of lesion growth that assumes radial expansion of the lesion from its starting point. Our approach involves three steps. First, an affine registration brings the atlas and the patient into global correspondence. Then, the seeding of a synthetic tumor into the brain atlas provides a template for the lesion. The last step is the deformation of the seeded atlas, combining a method derived from optical flow principles and a model of lesion growth. Results show that a good registration is performed and that the method can be applied to automatic segmentation of structures and substructures in brains with gross deformation, with important medical applications in neurosurgery, radiosurgery, and radiotherapy.

Change of individual BMI in Switzerland and the USA: a multilevel model for growth

Objective The aim is to analyze and compare individual BMI growth patterns of adults from Switzerland and the U.S. Methods The analyses are based on data from two population representative longitudinal household surveys, one from Switzerland, the other from the U.S. Each data set contains up to four data points for each adult individual. We use multilevel models for growth. Results It can be shown that growth patterns are different in different cohorts in the two countries: there are only small growth differences in the youngest and oldest, but large differences in the middle ages. The individual BMI increase of the middle age Swiss amounts to only half of that in the comparable U.S. individuals. Conclusion Given the much higher BMI level especially in the youngest cohort, this points to severe obesity problems in the U.S. middle aged population in the near future. A positive correlation between individual BMI level and growth may aggravate this fact.

Verification at the protein level of the PIF4-mediated external coincidence model for the temperature-adaptive photoperiodic control of plant growth in Arabidopsis thaliana.

Plant circadian clock controls a wide variety of physiological and developmental events, which include the short-days (SDs)-specific promotion of the elongation of hypocotyls during de-etiolation and also the elongation of petioles during vegetative growth. In A. thaliana, the PIF4 gene encoding a phytochrome-interacting basic helix-loop-helix (bHLH) transcription factor plays crucial roles in this photoperiodic control of plant growth. According to the proposed external coincidence model, the PIF4 gene is transcribed precociously at the end of night specifically in SDs, under which conditions the protein product is stably accumulated, while PIF4 is expressed exclusively during the daytime in long days (LDs), under which conditions the protein product is degraded by the light-activated phyB and also the residual proteins are inactivated by the DELLA family of proteins. A number of previous reports provided solid evidence to support this coincidence model mainly at the transcriptional level of the PIF 4 and PIF4-traget genes. Nevertheless, the diurnal oscillation profiles of PIF4 proteins, which were postulated to be dependent on photoperiod and ambient temperature, have not yet been demonstrated. Here we present such crucial evidence on PIF4 protein level to further support the external coincidence model underlying the temperature-adaptive photoperiodic control of plant growth in A. thaliana.

Growth, convergence and public investment : a bayesian model averaging approach

The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we study the determinants of economic growth among a wide set of potential variables for the Spanish provinces (NUTS3). Among others, we include various types of private, public and human capital in the group of growth factors. Also,we analyse whether Spanish provinces have converged in economic terms in recent decades. Thesecond objective is to obtain cross-section and panel data parameter estimates that are robustto model speci¯cation. For this purpose, we use a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach.Bayesian methodology constructs parameter estimates as a weighted average of linear regression estimates for every possible combination of included variables. The weight of each regression estimate is given by the posterior probability of each model.

Growth, convergence and public investment : a bayesian model averaging approach

The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we study the determinants of economic growth among a wide set of potential variables for the Spanish provinces (NUTS3). Among others, we include various types of private, public and human capital in the group of growth factors. Also,we analyse whether Spanish provinces have converged in economic terms in recent decades. Thesecond objective is to obtain cross-section and panel data parameter estimates that are robustto model speci¯cation. For this purpose, we use a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach.Bayesian methodology constructs parameter estimates as a weighted average of linear regression estimates for every possible combination of included variables. The weight of each regression estimate is given by the posterior probability of each model.

Side-branch growth in two-dimensional dendrits. Part II: Phase-field model

The development of side-branching in solidifying dendrites in a regime of large values of the Peclet number is studied by means of a phase-field model. We have compared our numerical results with experiments of the preceding paper and we obtain good qualitative agreement. The growth rate of each side branch shows a power-law behavior from the early stages of its life. From their birth, branches which finally succeed in the competition process of side-branching development have a greater growth exponent than branches which are stopped. Coarsening of branches is entirely defined by their geometrical position relative to their dominant neighbors. The winner branches escape from the diffusive field of the main dendrite and become independent dendrites.