Tropical cyclone-related socio-economic losses in the western North Pacific region

The western North Pacific (WNP) is the area of the world most frequently affected by tropical cyclones (TCs). However, little is known about the socio-economic impacts of TCs in this region, probably because of the limited relevant loss data. Here, loss data from Munich RE's NatCatSERVICE database is used, a high-quality and widely consulted database of natural disasters. In the country-level loss normalisation technique we apply, the original loss data are normalised to present-day exposure levels by using the respective country's nominal gross domestic product at purchasing power parity as a proxy for wealth. The main focus of our study is on the question of whether the decadal-scale TC variability observed in the Northwest Pacific region in recent decades can be shown to manifest itself economically in an associated variability in losses. It is shown that since 1980 the frequency of TC-related loss events in the WNP exhibited, apart from seasonal and interannual variations, interdecadal variability with a period of about 22 yr – driven primarily by corresponding variations of Northwest Pacific TCs. Compared to the long-term mean, the number of loss events was found to be higher (lower) by 14% (9%) in the positive (negative) phase of the decadal-scale WNP TC frequency variability. This was identified for the period 1980–2008 by applying a wavelet analysis technique. It was also possible to demonstrate the same low-frequency variability in normalised direct economic losses from TCs in the WNP region. The identification of possible physical mechanisms responsible for the observed decadal-scale Northwest Pacific TC variability will be the subject of future research, even if suggestions have already been made in earlier studies.

The Beach in Anglophone Literatures and Cultures: Reading Littoral Space

From early colonial encounters to the ecological disasters of the twenty-first century, the performativity of contact has been a crucial element in the political significance of the beach. Conceptualising the beach as a creative trope and as a socio-cultural site, as well as an aesthetically productive topography, this collection examines its multiplicity of meanings and functions as a natural environment engendering both desire and fear in the human imagination from the Victorian period to the present. The contributors examine literature, film, and art, in addition to moments of encounter and environmental crisis, to highlight the beach as a social space inspiring particular codes of behaviour and specific discourses, as a geographical frontier between land and water, as an historical site of contact and conflict, and as a vacationscape promising regeneration and withdrawal from everyday life. The diversity of the beach is reflected in the geographical range, with essays on locales and texts from Britain, Ireland, the Caribbean, South Africa, the United States, Polynesia, and New Zealand. Focusing on the changed function of the beach as a result of processes of industrialisation and the rise of a modern leisure and health culture, this interdisciplinary volume theorises the beach as a demarcater of the precarious boundary between land and the sea, as well as between nature and culture.

Demographic model of the Swiss cattle population for the years 2009-2011 stratified by gender, age and production type

Demographic composition and dynamics of animal and human populations are important determinants for the transmission dynamics of infectious disease and for the effect of infectious disease or environmental disasters on productivity. In many circumstances, demographic data are not available or of poor quality. Since 1999 Switzerland has been recording cattle movements, births, deaths and slaughter in an animal movement database (AMD). The data present in the AMD offers the opportunity for analysing and understanding the dynamic of the Swiss cattle population. A dynamic population model can serve as a building block for future disease transmission models and help policy makers in developing strategies regarding animal health, animal welfare, livestock management and productivity. The Swiss cattle population was therefore modelled using a system of ordinary differential equations. The model was stratified by production type (dairy or beef), age and gender (male and female calves: 0-1 year, heifers and young bulls: 1-2 years, cows and bulls: older than 2 years). The simulation of the Swiss cattle population reflects the observed pattern accurately. Parameters were optimized on the basis of the goodness-of-fit (using the Powell algorithm). The fitted rates were compared with calculated rates from the AMD and differed only marginally. This gives confidence in the fitted rates of parameters that are not directly deductible from the AMD (e.g. the proportion of calves that are moved from the dairy system to fattening plants).

Managing Debris Flow Risks

Debris flows represent a widespread threat to villages and small towns in the Swiss Alps. For many centuries people “managed” such risks by trying to avoid hazardous areas. However, major debris flow and flood events in the last 25 years have revealed that the degree of freedom to engage in this type of risk management has substantially decreased. This became especially evident during the 1999 disasters in a number of places in Switzerland. The winter of that year was unusually wet. In February heavy snowfall triggered destructive avalanches. In May high temperatures caused heavy snowmelt, with excessive rainfall contributing more water to the already saturated soils. Landslides, debris flows and floods were triggered in many locations, including Sörenberg. Hazard prevention and disaster management have a long tradition in Switzerland, although an integrated approach to risk management is rather new. Only in recent years have methods and tools been developed to assess hazards, define protection goals, and implement disaster reduction measures. The case of Sörenberg serves as an example of how today's approaches to disaster reduction are implemented at the local level.

Integrated Disaster Reduction Approach: LforS Learning and Simulation Game

Main objective of the game is to increase the coping capacity of players and familiarise them with the Integrated Disaster Reduction Approach. The game is intended to prepare for and introduce the players to a subsequent Learning for Sustainability capacity building workshop for community leaders. The game represents a typical emergency situation resulting from a natural disaster. Before and after the event, adequate measures help to prevent or minimise potential damages. Once a disaster has occurred, concerted actions and immediate measures need to be taken to rescue as much as possible (human lives, livestock, material) and safeguard the village against further damage and losses. In the course of the game, each playing team can proof its knowledge on adequate measures that have to be taken in order to avoid or reduce losses related to natural disasters. Such measures relate to assessment and monitoring of risks, prevention and mitigation measures, preparedness and response as well as recovery and reconstruction.

Introduction to public health preparedness for disaster and emergency response

The unprecedented attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent anthrax-related events thrust our nation's often forgotten public health system into the forefront of public attention. A strong public health system with a well-prepared workforce plays a critical role in preparing for and responding to the threat of bioterrorism and other disasters and emergencies. Technical expertise is critical as is a basic awareness and understanding of core public health competencies especially as they relate to disaster and emergency response is also imperative for a public health agency to function as a vital Emergency Response team member. Ideally this training should begin at the Public Health graduate level so as to provide the baseline core tools to be able to function as a vital team member when they are practicing out in the real world. Online learning is an efficient and effective method for providing public health education to in a flexible format to meet the needs of busy student-professions. This Public Health Disaster Preparedness online course developed during an Emergency Response state program practicum is a practical and proficient approach to accomplish this endeavor. ^

A model for use by local public health departments to evaluate pandemic influenza plans

The events of the 1990's and early 2000's demonstrated the need for effective planning and response to natural and man-made disasters. One of those potential natural disasters is pandemic flu. Once defined, the CDC stated that program, or plan, effectiveness is improved through the process of program evaluation. (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1999) Program evaluation should be accomplished not only periodically, but in the course of routine administration of the program. (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1999) Accomplishing this task for a "rare, but significant event" is challenging. (Herbold, John R., PhD., 2008) To address this challenge, the RAND Corporation (under contract to the CDC) developed the "Facilitated Look-Backs" approach that was tested and validated at the state level. (Aledort et al., 2006).^ Nevertheless, no comprehensive and generally applicable pandemic influenza program evaluation tool or model is readily found for use at the local public health department level. This project developed such a model based on the "Facilitated Look-Backs" approach developed by RAND Corporation. (Aledort et al., 2006) Modifications to the RAND model included stakeholder additions, inclusion of all six CDC program evaluation steps, and suggestions for incorporating pandemic flu response plans in seasonal flu management implementation. Feedback on the model was then obtained from three LPHD's—one rural, one suburban, and one urban. These recommendations were incorporated into the final model. Feedback from the sites also supported the assumption that this model promotes the effective and efficient evaluation of both pandemic flu and seasonal flu response by reducing redundant evaluations of pandemic flu plans, seasonal flu plans, and funding requirement accountability. Site feedback also demonstrated that the model is comprehensive and flexible, so it can be adapted and applied to different LPHD needs and settings. It also stimulates evaluation of the major issues associated with pandemic flu planning. ^ The next phase in evaluating this model should be to apply it in a program evaluation of one or more LPHD's seasonal flu response that incorporates pandemic flu response plans.^

Malaria prevention in Kenyan women of childbearing age

The objective of this program is to reduce malaria incidence in Kenya. Malaria poses a large public health challenge in Kenya, and although public health efforts have traditionally been focused on treatment of infected patients, due to increased drug resistance and lack of drug-adherence, prevention strategies are needed. This program targets Kenyan women, the likely caretakers in the home, and promotes malaria prevention behaviors through health education. ^ A planning group will be assembled and a needs assessment will be performed, verifying risk factors and conditions associated with malaria, as well as personal and external determinants. Behavioral and environmental outcomes will be determined, and performance objectives for each outcome will be established. Matrices of change objectives will be created, and detailed methods and strategies will be linked to each change objective. Program elements include media, education, and incentives. All materials used in this program will be subjected to pre-test to ensure cultural relevance and fidelity. Matrices of change objectives will be created for program adopters and implementers, as well as correlating methods and strategies associated with each change objective. Performance objectives will also be compiled for program maintainers. A program evaluation plan will follow "Pre-Post Comparison Group" design. Outcome evaluation and process evaluation will be conducted. The sample population will be screened based on age and gender so as to maintain comparability to the target population. Measurements will be taken before the program to establish baseline, directly following the program to determine short-term effects, and three months after the program is completed to determine long-term effects. ^ One limitation of this program is selection bias, due to the nature of quasi-experimental studies. Thorough screening prior to sample selection will minimize selection bias and ensure group homogeneity. Another limitation is attrition, and this will be minimized where possible through the use of incentives. In cases where loss to follow-up is not avoidable, such as death or natural disasters, the attrition effect will be estimated using structural equation modeling after reviewing the sample size, differential attrition and total attrition. ^ This intervention is based heavily on health promotion theories, but it is important to remember that in the field, the program plan will likely include only the necessary practical strategies. The target population, Kenyan women of childbearing age, will be significant in decreasing the malaria disease burden in Kenya.^

Health impacts of extreme weather: Flood fatalities in Texas

Floods are the leading cause of fatalities related to natural disasters in Texas. Texas leads the nation in flash flood fatalities. From 1959 through 2009 there were three times more fatalities in Texas (840) than the following state Pennsylvania (265). Texas also leads the nation in flood-related injuries (7753). Flood fatalities in Texas represent a serious public health problem. This study addresses several objectives of Healthy People 2010 including reducing deaths from motor vehicle accidents (Objective 15-15), reducing nonfatal motor vehicle injuries (Objective 15-17), and reducing drownings (Objective 15-29). The study examined flood fatalities that occurred in Texas between 1959 and 2008. Flood fatality statistics were extracted from three sources: flood fatality databases from the National Climatic Data Center, the Spatial Hazard Event and Loss Database for the United States, and the Texas Department of State Health Services. The data collected for flood fatalities include the date, time, gender, age, location, and type of flood. Inconsistencies among the three databases were identified and discussed. Analysis reveals that most fatalities result from driving into flood water (77%). Spatial analysis indicates that more fatalities occurred in counties containing major urban centers – some of the Flash Flood Alley counties (Bexar, Dallas, Travis, and Tarrant), Harris County (Houston), and Val Verde County (Del Rio). An intervention strategy targeting the behavior of driving into flood water is proposed. The intervention is based on the Health Belief model. The main recommendation of the study is that flood fatalities in Texas can be reduced through a combination of improved hydrometeorological forecasting, educational programs aimed at enhancing the public awareness of flood risk and the seriousness of flood warnings, and timely and appropriate action by local emergency and safety authorities.^

Statistical and methodological challenges for disaster preparedness and medical needs assessment in Rio Grande Valley of Texas

In recent years, disaster preparedness through assessment of medical and special needs persons (MSNP) has taken a center place in public eye in effect of frequent natural disasters such as hurricanes, storm surge or tsunami due to climate change and increased human activity on our planet. Statistical methods complex survey design and analysis have equally gained significance as a consequence. However, there exist many challenges still, to infer such assessments over the target population for policy level advocacy and implementation. ^ Objective. This study discusses the use of some of the statistical methods for disaster preparedness and medical needs assessment to facilitate local and state governments for its policy level decision making and logistic support to avoid any loss of life and property in future calamities. ^ Methods. In order to obtain precise and unbiased estimates for Medical Special Needs Persons (MSNP) and disaster preparedness for evacuation in Rio Grande Valley (RGV) of Texas, a stratified and cluster-randomized multi-stage sampling design was implemented. US School of Public Health, Brownsville surveyed 3088 households in three counties namely Cameron, Hidalgo, and Willacy. Multiple statistical methods were implemented and estimates were obtained taking into count probability of selection and clustering effects. Statistical methods for data analysis discussed were Multivariate Linear Regression (MLR), Survey Linear Regression (Svy-Reg), Generalized Estimation Equation (GEE) and Multilevel Mixed Models (MLM) all with and without sampling weights. ^ Results. Estimated population for RGV was 1,146,796. There were 51.5% female, 90% Hispanic, 73% married, 56% unemployed and 37% with their personal transport. 40% people attained education up to elementary school, another 42% reaching high school and only 18% went to college. Median household income is less than $15,000/year. MSNP estimated to be 44,196 (3.98%) [95% CI: 39,029; 51,123]. All statistical models are in concordance with MSNP estimates ranging from 44,000 to 48,000. MSNP estimates for statistical methods are: MLR (47,707; 95% CI: 42,462; 52,999), MLR with weights (45,882; 95% CI: 39,792; 51,972), Bootstrap Regression (47,730; 95% CI: 41,629; 53,785), GEE (47,649; 95% CI: 41,629; 53,670), GEE with weights (45,076; 95% CI: 39,029; 51,123), Svy-Reg (44,196; 95% CI: 40,004; 48,390) and MLM (46,513; 95% CI: 39,869; 53,157). ^ Conclusion. RGV is a flood zone, most susceptible to hurricanes and other natural disasters. People in the region are mostly Hispanic, under-educated with least income levels in the U.S. In case of any disaster people in large are incapacitated with only 37% have their personal transport to take care of MSNP. Local and state government’s intervention in terms of planning, preparation and support for evacuation is necessary in any such disaster to avoid loss of precious human life. ^ Key words: Complex Surveys, statistical methods, multilevel models, cluster randomized, sampling weights, raking, survey regression, generalized estimation equations (GEE), random effects, Intracluster correlation coefficient (ICC).^

Use of tabletop exercises for disaster preparedness training

Background. In public health preparedness, disaster preparedness refers to the strategic planning of responses to all types of disasters. Preparation and training for disaster response can be conducted using different teaching modalities, ranging from discussion-based programs such as seminars, drills and tabletop exercises to more complex operation-based programs such as functional exercises and full-scale exercises. Each method of instruction has its advantages and disadvantages. Tabletop exercises are facilitated discussions designed to evaluate programs, policies, and procedures; they are usually conducted in a classroom, often with tabletop props (e.g. models, maps or diagrams). ^ Objective. The overall goal of this project was to determine whether tabletop exercises are effective teaching modalities for disaster preparedness, with an emphasis on intentional chemical exposure. ^ Method. The target audience for the exercise was the Medical Reserve Brigade of the Texas State Guard, a group of volunteer healthcare providers and first responders who prepare for response to local disasters. A new tabletop exercise was designed to provide information on the complex, interrelated organizations within the national disaster preparedness program that this group would interact with in the event of a local disaster. This educational intervention consisted of a four hour multipart program that included a pretest of knowledge, lecture series, an interactive group discussion using a mock disaster scenario, a posttest of knowledge, and a course evaluation. ^ Results. Approximately 40 volunteers attended the intervention session; roughly half (n=21) had previously participated in a full scale drill. There was an 11% improvement in fund of knowledge between the pre- and post-test scores (p=0.002). Overall, the tabletop exercise was well received by those with and without prior training, with no significant differences found between these two groups in terms of relevance and appropriateness of content. However, the separate components of the tabletop exercise were variably effective, as gauged by written text comments on the questionnaire. ^ Conclusions. Tabletop exercises can be a useful training modality in disaster preparedness, as evidenced by improvement in knowledge and qualitative feedback on its value. Future offerings could incorporate recordings of participant responses during the drill, so that better feedback can be provided to them. Additional research should be conducted, using the same or similar design, in different populations that are stakeholders in disaster preparedness, so that the generalizability of these findings can be determined.^