Engineering Geology for Society and Territory: volume 2: landslide processes

This book is one out of 8 IAEG XII Congress volumes, and deals with Landslide processes, including: field data and monitoring techniques, prediction and forecasting of landslide occurrence, regional landslide inventories and dating studies, modeling of slope instabilities and secondary hazards (e.g. impulse waves and landslide-induced tsunamis, landslide dam failures and breaching), hazard and risk assessment, earthquake and rainfall induced landslides, instabilities of volcanic edifices, remedial works and mitigation measures, development of innovative stabilization techniques and applicability to specific engineering geological conditions, use of geophysical techniques for landslide characterization and investigation of triggering mechanisms. Focuses is given to innovative techniques, well documented case studies in different environments, critical components of engineering geological and geotechnical investigations, hydrological and hydrogeological investigations, remote sensing and geophysical techniques, modeling of triggering, collapse, runout and landslide reactivation, geotechnical design and construction procedures in landslide zones, interaction of landslides with structures and infrastructures and possibility of domino effects. The Engineering Geology for Society and Territory volumes of the IAEG XII Congress held in Torino from September 15-19, 2014, analyze the dynamic role of engineering geology in our changing world and build on the four main themes of the congress: environment, processes, issues, and approaches.

Probabilistic graphical models to deal with age estimation of living persons

Due to the rise of criminal, civil and administrative judicial situations involving people lacking valid identity documents, age estimation of living persons has become an important operational procedure for numerous forensic and medicolegal services worldwide. The chronological age of a given person is generally estimated from the observed degree of maturity of some selected physical attributes by means of statistical methods. However, their application in the forensic framework suffers from some conceptual and practical drawbacks, as recently claimed in the specialised literature. The aim of this paper is therefore to offer an alternative solution for overcoming these limits, by reiterating the utility of a probabilistic Bayesian approach for age estimation. This approach allows one to deal in a transparent way with the uncertainty surrounding the age estimation process and to produce all the relevant information in the form of posterior probability distribution about the chronological age of the person under investigation. Furthermore, this probability distribution can also be used for evaluating in a coherent way the possibility that the examined individual is younger or older than a given legal age threshold having a particular legal interest. The main novelty introduced by this work is the development of a probabilistic graphical model, i.e. a Bayesian network, for dealing with the problem at hand. The use of this kind of probabilistic tool can significantly facilitate the application of the proposed methodology: examples are presented based on data related to the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis. The reliability and the advantages of this probabilistic tool are presented and discussed.

Future development of gastrointestinal cancer incidence and mortality rates in Switzerland: a tumour registry- and population-based projection up to 2030.

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: Since tumour burden consumes substantial healthcare resources, precise cancer incidence estimations are pivotal to define future needs of national healthcare. This study aimed to estimate incidence and mortality rates of oesophageal, gastric, pancreatic, hepatic and colorectal cancers up to 2030 in Switzerland. METHODS: Swiss Statistics provides national incidences and mortality rates of various cancers, and models of future developments of the Swiss population. Cancer incidences and mortality rates from 1985 to 2009 were analysed to estimate trends and to predict incidence and mortality rates up to 2029. Linear regressions and Joinpoint analyses were performed to estimate the future trends of incidences and mortality rates. RESULTS: Crude incidences of oesophageal, pancreas, liver and colorectal cancers have steadily increased since 1985, and will continue to increase. Gastric cancer incidence and mortality rates reveal an ongoing decrease. Pancreatic and liver cancer crude mortality rates will keep increasing, whereas colorectal cancer mortality on the contrary will fall. Mortality from oesophageal cancer will plateau or minimally increase. If we consider European population-standardised incidence rates, oesophageal, pancreatic and colorectal cancer incidences are steady. Gastric cancers are diminishing and liver cancers will follow an increasing trend. Standardised mortality rates show a diminution for all but liver cancer. CONCLUSIONS: The oncological burden of gastrointestinal cancer will significantly increase in Switzerland during the next two decades. The crude mortality rates globally show an ongoing increase except for gastric and colorectal cancers. Enlarged healthcare resources to take care of these complex patient groups properly will be needed.

Courts and Courtly Cultures in Early Modern Italy and Europe: Models and Languages

This volume deals with the forms of propaganda and self-representation, through words and images, during the rise of the 'civiltà delle corti' and through processes typical of the time, such as confrontation, adaptation, competition and rivalry. This period, which marked the passage of Italian and European culture from the Middle Ages to the Renaissance, is fundamental in the development of Modern Europe, and it lasted up to the XVIII century and beyond. At the heart of many matters debated here lies the relationship between culture and politics. The formation of a 'Lombard identity', central to the Sinergia project which was the frame of the whole research and its conferences, is closely linked to this broad general context. It places the so called 'questione milanese' - above the traditional hierarchies 'Toscana oriented' - at the centre of many questions regarding Northern Italy as a whole, starting from the dissolution of the Medieval communes, through to the rise of the signorie, from the end of the XIII century and the beginning of the XIV century up to the early XVI century.

The Present State and a Development Plan of Cost Accounting in Batch Production of Wind Turbine Gears

The aim of this master’s thesis was to document the present state and to create a development plan for Moventas Wind’s cost accounting. The current cost accounting system was evaluated and most fundamental problems were chosen as areas of focus in development work. The development plan includes both short- and long-term development proposals for problems identified. This report presents two alternative models for product costing. Benchmarking of cost accounting practices and modern cost accounting theories were used in development of cost accounting. It was found that the current cost accounting system functions quite well and the adjustments in unit cost rate calculation have only a minor influence on costs of goods sold. An OEE-based standard cycle concept was also developed and it was found that the implementation of this new system is worthwhile in the long-term.

El territorio y la ciudad de Tarraco

This paper presents a brief description of the archaeological research in the territory and in the city of Tarraco, the ancient capital of provincia Hispania Tarraconensis and one of the main centres for the spread of Hispanic Christianity. Althoug Tarraco was the last capital under imperial control and the firs Hispanic metropolitan see, the city had only a secondary role by comparison with other Hispanic cities during late antiquity. This evolution shaped the development of Tarraco during the 7th century, but archaeologists identify an important architectural vitality still in the 6th century at the same time as other episcopal cities were evolving. During this period, the final Christianization of the symbolic spaces of ancient paganism took place, establishing the ideological basis of medieval urbanism that is still preserved today. The paper also interprets the sites through raising key questions as well as describing rural settlements, where archaeological knowledge is not so far advanced, due in part to the difficult nature of archaeological research, and in part to the need to study new construcitve models, as well as to the systematic collection of the relevant material culture.

Models in country scale carbon accounting of forest soils

Selective papers of the workshop on "Development of models and forest soil surveys for monitoring of soil carbon", Koli, Finland, April 5-9 2006.

Optimization of solvent mixtures for extraction from bark of Schinus terebinthifolius by a statistical mixture-design technique and development of a UV-Vis spectrophotometric method for analysis of total polyphenols in the extract

A statistical mixture-design technique was used to study the effects of different solvents and their mixtures on the yield, total polyphenol content, and antioxidant capacity of the crude extracts from the bark of Schinus terebinthifolius Raddi (Anacardiaceae). The experimental results and their response-surface models showed that ternary mixtures with equal portions of all the three solvents (water, ethanol and acetone) were better than the binary mixtures in generating crude extracts with the highest yield (22.04 ± 0.48%), total polyphenol content (29.39 ± 0.39%), and antioxidant capacity (6.38 ± 0.21). An analytical method was developed and validated for the determination of total polyphenols in the extracts. Optimal conditions for the various parameters in this analytical method, namely, the time for the chromophoric reaction to stabilize, wavelength of the absorption maxima to be monitored, the reference standard and the concentration of sodium carbonate were determined to be 5 min, 780 nm, pyrogallol, and 14.06% w v-1, respectively. UV-Vis spectrophotometric monitoring of the reaction under these conditions proved the method to be linear, specific, precise, accurate, reproducible, robust, and easy to perform.

Development of Collaborative Product Structure Management

The purpose of this thesis is to develop an environment or network that enables effective collaborative product structure management among stakeholders in each unit, throughout the entire product lifecycle and product data management. This thesis uses framework models as an approach to the problem. Framework model methods for development of collaborative product structure management are proposed in this study, there are three unique models depicted to support collaborative product structure management: organization model, process model and product model. In the organization model, the formation of product data management system (eDSTAT) key user network is specified. In the process model, development is based on the case company’s product development matrix. In the product model framework, product model management, product knowledge management and design knowledge management are defined as development tools and collaboration is based on web-based product structure management. Collaborative management is executed using all these approaches. A case study from an actual project at the case company is presented as an implementation; this is to verify the models’ applicability. A computer assisted design tool and the web-based product structure manager, have been used as tools of this collaboration with the support of the key user. The current PDM system, eDSTAT, is used as a piloting case for key user role. The result of this development is that the role of key user as a collaboration channel is defined and established. The key user is able to provide one on one support for the elevator projects. Also the management activities are improved through the application of process workflow by following criteria for each project milestone. The development shows effectiveness of product structure management in product lifecycle, improved production process by eliminating barriers (e.g. improvement of two-way communication) during design phase and production phase. The key user role is applicable on a global scale in the company.

Models and applications for risk assessment and prediction of Asian soybean rust epidemics

Asian rust of soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merril] is one of the most important fungal diseases of this crop worldwide. The recent introduction of Phakopsora pachyrhizi Syd. & P. Syd in the Americas represents a major threat to soybean production in the main growing regions, and significant losses have already been reported. P. pachyrhizi is extremely aggressive under favorable weather conditions, causing rapid plant defoliation. Epidemiological studies, under both controlled and natural environmental conditions, have been done for several decades with the aim of elucidating factors that affect the disease cycle as a basis for disease modeling. The recent spread of Asian soybean rust to major production regions in the world has promoted new development, testing and application of mathematical models to assess the risk and predict the disease. These efforts have included the integration of new data, epidemiological knowledge, statistical methods, and advances in computer simulation to develop models and systems with different spatial and temporal scales, objectives and audience. In this review, we present a comprehensive discussion on the models and systems that have been tested to predict and assess the risk of Asian soybean rust. Limitations, uncertainties and challenges for modelers are also discussed.

Evaluating the success of software development projects in Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus

The size and complexity of projects in the software development are growing very fast. At the same time, the proportion of successful projects is still quite low according to the previous research. Although almost every project's team knows main areas of responsibility which would help to finish project on time and on budget, this knowledge is rarely used in practice. So it is important to evaluate the success of existing software development projects and to suggest a method for evaluating success chances which can be used in the software development projects. The main aim of this study is to evaluate the success of projects in the selected geographical region (Russia-Ukraine-Belarus). The second aim is to compare existing models of success prediction and to determine their strengths and weaknesses. Research was done as an empirical study. A survey with structured forms and theme-based interviews were used as the data collection methods. The information gathering was done in two stages. At the first stage, project manager or someone with similar responsibilities answered the questions over Internet. At the second stage, the participant was interviewed; his or her answers were discussed and refined. It made possible to get accurate information about each project and to avoid errors. It was found out that there are many problems in the software development projects. These problems are widely known and were discussed in literature many times. The research showed that most of the projects have problems with schedule, requirements, architecture, quality, and budget. Comparison of two models of success prediction presented that The Standish Group overestimates problems in project. At the same time, McConnell's model can help to identify problems in time and avoid troubles in future. A framework for evaluating success chances in distributed projects was suggested. The framework is similar to The Standish Group model but it was customized for distributed projects.

Analysis of electricity distribution network operation business models and capitalization of control room functions with DMS

Electricity distribution network operation (NO) models are challenged as they are expected to continue to undergo changes during the coming decades in the fairly developed and regulated Nordic electricity market. Network asset managers are to adapt to competitive technoeconomical business models regarding the operation of increasingly intelligent distribution networks. Factors driving the changes for new business models within network operation include: increased investments in distributed automation (DA), regulative frameworks for annual profit limits and quality through outage cost, increasing end-customer demands, climatic changes and increasing use of data system tools, such as Distribution Management System (DMS). The doctoral thesis addresses the questions a) whether there exist conditions and qualifications for competitive markets within electricity distribution network operation and b) if so, identification of limitations and required business mechanisms. This doctoral thesis aims to provide an analytical business framework, primarily for electric utilities, for evaluation and development purposes of dedicated network operation models to meet future market dynamics within network operation. In the thesis, the generic build-up of a business model has been addressed through the use of the strategicbusiness hierarchy levels of mission, vision and strategy for definition of the strategic direction of the business followed by the planning, management and process execution levels of enterprisestrategy execution. Research questions within electricity distribution network operation are addressed at the specified hierarchy levels. The results of the research represent interdisciplinary findings in the areas of electrical engineering and production economics. The main scientific contributions include further development of the extended transaction cost economics (TCE) for government decisions within electricity networks and validation of the usability of the methodology for the electricity distribution industry. Moreover, DMS benefit evaluations in the thesis based on the outage cost calculations propose theoretical maximum benefits of DMS applications equalling roughly 25% of the annual outage costs and 10% of the respective operative costs in the case electric utility. Hence, the annual measurable theoretical benefits from the use of DMS applications are considerable. The theoretical results in the thesis are generally validated by surveys and questionnaires.

Reading Development During Elementary School Years. Evidence from Eye Movements

The present dissertation examined reading development during elementary school years by means of eye movement tracking. Three different but related issues in this field were assessed. First of all, the development of parafoveal processing skills in reading was investigated. Second, it was assessed whether and to what extent sublexical units such as syllables and morphemes are used in processing Finnish words and whether the use of these sublexical units changes as a function of reading proficiency. Finally, the developmental trend in the speed of visual information extraction during reading was examined. With regard to parafoveal processing skills, it was shown that 2nd graders extract letter identity information approx. 5 characters to the right of fixation, 4th graders approx. 7 characters to the right of fixation, and 6th graders and adults approx. 9 characters to the right of fixation. Furthermore, it was shown that all age groups extract more parafoveal information within compound words than across adjectivenoun pairs of similar length. In compounds, parafoveal word information can be extracted in parallel with foveal word information, if the compound in question is of high frequency. With regard to the use of sublexical units in Finnish word processing, it was shown that less proficient 2nd graders use both syllables and morphemes in the course of lexical access. More proficient 2nd graders as well as older readers seem to process words more holistically. Finally, it was shown that 60 ms is enough for 4th graders and adults to extract visual information from both 4-letter and 8-letter words, whereas 2nd graders clearly needed more than 60 ms to extract all information from 8- letter words for processing to proceed smoothly. The present dissertation demonstrates that Finnish 2nd graders develop their reading skills rapidly and are already at an adult level in some aspects of reading. This is not to say that there are no differences between less proficient (e.g., 2nd graders) and more proficient readers (e.g., adults) but in some respects it seems that the visual system used in extracting information from the text is matured by the 2nd grade. Furthermore, the present dissertation demonstrates that the allocation of attention in reading depends much on textual properties such as word frequency and whether words are spatially unified (as in compounds) or not. This flexibility of the attentional system naturally needs to be captured in word processing models. Finally, individual differences within age groups are quite substantial but it seems that by the end of the 2nd grade practically all Finnish children have reached a reasonable level of reading proficiency.

Methods for construction and analysis of computational models in systems biology : applications to the modelling of the heat shock response and the self-assembly of intermediate filaments

Systems biology is a new, emerging and rapidly developing, multidisciplinary research field that aims to study biochemical and biological systems from a holistic perspective, with the goal of providing a comprehensive, system- level understanding of cellular behaviour. In this way, it addresses one of the greatest challenges faced by contemporary biology, which is to compre- hend the function of complex biological systems. Systems biology combines various methods that originate from scientific disciplines such as molecu- lar biology, chemistry, engineering sciences, mathematics, computer science and systems theory. Systems biology, unlike “traditional” biology, focuses on high-level concepts such as: network, component, robustness, efficiency, control, regulation, hierarchical design, synchronization, concurrency, and many others. The very terminology of systems biology is “foreign” to “tra- ditional” biology, marks its drastic shift in the research paradigm and it indicates close linkage of systems biology to computer science. One of the basic tools utilized in systems biology is the mathematical modelling of life processes tightly linked to experimental practice. The stud- ies contained in this thesis revolve around a number of challenges commonly encountered in the computational modelling in systems biology. The re- search comprises of the development and application of a broad range of methods originating in the fields of computer science and mathematics for construction and analysis of computational models in systems biology. In particular, the performed research is setup in the context of two biolog- ical phenomena chosen as modelling case studies: 1) the eukaryotic heat shock response and 2) the in vitro self-assembly of intermediate filaments, one of the main constituents of the cytoskeleton. The range of presented approaches spans from heuristic, through numerical and statistical to ana- lytical methods applied in the effort to formally describe and analyse the two biological processes. We notice however, that although applied to cer- tain case studies, the presented methods are not limited to them and can be utilized in the analysis of other biological mechanisms as well as com- plex systems in general. The full range of developed and applied modelling techniques as well as model analysis methodologies constitutes a rich mod- elling framework. Moreover, the presentation of the developed methods, their application to the two case studies and the discussions concerning their potentials and limitations point to the difficulties and challenges one encounters in computational modelling of biological systems. The problems of model identifiability, model comparison, model refinement, model inte- gration and extension, choice of the proper modelling framework and level of abstraction, or the choice of the proper scope of the model run through this thesis.

On the impact of rigorous approaches on the quality of development

Software systems are expanding and becoming increasingly present in everyday activities. The constantly evolving society demands that they deliver more functionality, are easy to use and work as expected. All these challenges increase the size and complexity of a system. People may not be aware of a presence of a software system, until it malfunctions or even fails to perform. The concept of being able to depend on the software is particularly significant when it comes to the critical systems. At this point quality of a system is regarded as an essential issue, since any deficiencies may lead to considerable money loss or life endangerment. Traditional development methods may not ensure a sufficiently high level of quality. Formal methods, on the other hand, allow us to achieve a high level of rigour and can be applied to develop a complete system or only a critical part of it. Such techniques, applied during system development starting at early design stages, increase the likelihood of obtaining a system that works as required. However, formal methods are sometimes considered difficult to utilise in traditional developments. Therefore, it is important to make them more accessible and reduce the gap between the formal and traditional development methods. This thesis explores the usability of rigorous approaches by giving an insight into formal designs with the use of graphical notation. The understandability of formal modelling is increased due to a compact representation of the development and related design decisions. The central objective of the thesis is to investigate the impact that rigorous approaches have on quality of developments. This means that it is necessary to establish certain techniques for evaluation of rigorous developments. Since we are studying various development settings and methods, specific measurement plans and a set of metrics need to be created for each setting. Our goal is to provide methods for collecting data and record evidence of the applicability of rigorous approaches. This would support the organisations in making decisions about integration of formal methods into their development processes. It is important to control the software development, especially in its initial stages. Therefore, we focus on the specification and modelling phases, as well as related artefacts, e.g. models. These have significant influence on the quality of a final system. Since application of formal methods may increase the complexity of a system, it may impact its maintainability, and thus quality. Our goal is to leverage quality of a system via metrics and measurements, as well as generic refinement patterns, which are applied to a model and a specification. We argue that they can facilitate the process of creating software systems, by e.g. controlling complexity and providing the modelling guidelines. Moreover, we find them as additional mechanisms for quality control and improvement, also for rigorous approaches. The main contribution of this thesis is to provide the metrics and measurements that help in assessing the impact of rigorous approaches on developments. We establish the techniques for the evaluation of certain aspects of quality, which are based on structural, syntactical and process related characteristics of an early-stage development artefacts, i.e. specifications and models. The presented approaches are applied to various case studies. The results of the investigation are juxtaposed with the perception of domain experts. It is our aspiration to promote measurements as an indispensable part of quality control process and a strategy towards the quality improvement.