The systemic roots of Russia’s recession. Bruegel Policy Contribution ISSUE 2015/15, OCTOBER 2015

The Russian economy grew rapidly between 2000 and 2007, but growth decelerated after the 2008-09 global financial crisis, and since mid-2014 Russia has moved into recession. A number of short-term factors have caused recession: lower oil prices, the conflict with Ukraine, European Union and United States sanctions against Russia and Russian counter-sanctions. However Russia's negative output trends have deeper structural and institutional roots. They can be tracked back about a decade to when previous market-reform policies started to be reversed in favour of dirigisme, leading to further deterioration of the business and investment climate. • Russia must address its short-term problems, but in the medium-to-long term it must deal with its fundamental structural and institutional disadvantages: oil and commodity dependence and an unfriendly business and investment climate underpinned by poor governance. Compared to many other commodity producers, Russia is better placed to diversify its economy, mostly due to its excellent human capital. Ruble depreciation makes this task easier

A partial success of trade cooperation within the ‘16+1’ formula: the case of food exports to China. OSW COMMENTARY #189, 2015-10-29

When in 2012 China approached the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) with a proposal of cooperation in the ‘16+1’ formula, it declared it was willing to meet the needs of CEE countries. Beijing had been aware of the political importance of the problem of trade deficit (which has been ongoing for years) and launched cooperation with the governments of 16 CEE countries to boost imports from these states. The years 2011–2014 brought an improvement in the balance of trade between China and: Hungary, Latvia, the Czech Republic, Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia. The remaining ten CEE countries recorded an increase in their trade deficits. Changes in CEE countries’ balance of trade with China resulted only slightly from political actions. Instead, they were due to the macroeconomic situation and to a deterioration of the debt crisis in the EU which, for example, caused a decline in the import of Chinese goods in some of these countries. Multilateral trade cooperation was successfully developed in the entire region only in the agricultural and food production sector – the area of greatest interest to China. The pace of bilateral cooperation with specific countries varied, with the fastest being Poland, Latvia, Romania, Hungary and Bulgaria. Actions by governments of CEE countries resulted in Chinese market opening up to hundreds of local companies which, in turn, translated into an increase in the volume of foodstuffs sold by ‘the 16’ to China from US$ 137 million in 2011 to US$ 400 million in 2014. The success achieved in the agricultural and food production sector has demonstrated the effectiveness of trade cooperation in the ‘16+1’ formula. It is, however, insufficient to generate a significant improvement of the trade balance. At present, the sector’s share in the total volume of goods sold to China by CEE states is a mere 3.7%, and any reduction of the trade deficit would require long-term and more comprehensive solutions still to be implemented by the governments of individual CEE states.

The consequences of the Western financial sanctions on the Russian economy. OSW COMMENTARY NUMBER 203/23.03.2016

Although they are not the deciding factor, the Western financial sanctions are nevertheless an important factor affecting the deteriorating economic situation in Russia. They have significantly undermined the opportunities which Russian companies have to attract foreign capital, thus contributing to the deterioration of their financial condition (which is particularly prominent in the case of energy firms subject to sanctions). Therefore, Russian businesses need more support from the state. However, this support is becoming more difficult due to the dramatic fall in oil prices – revenues from oil exports are the main source of budget revenue.

The twilight of the oil Eldorado. How the activity of Russian oil companies on the EU market has evolved. OSW Studies 55, April 2016

The European Union has traditionally been the most important outlet for Russian oil exports. At the same time, during the period 2011-2014 a systematic decline was observed in crude oil supplies to the EU, while at the same time the export of petroleum products increased. It is now difficult to say that Russia is following a coherent oil strategy vis-a-vis the EU. The current shape of Russian activity is more the result of the business interests of individual companies, rather than the result of activities coordinated by the state. Although in the short term (up to 2020), the negative trend in crude oil exports to the EU could be halted (as confirmed by the figures for 2015), the long-term prospects for Russia's position on the EU market are pessimistic. This is because the importance of factors unfavourable to Russia is rising, such as the decrease in consumption of oil in the EU, the increased competition among exporters to the EU market, and the deterioration of the climate of Russian/EU cooperation in the context of the anti-Russian sanctions, as well as unclear prospects for the development of the upstream sector in Russia.

Palynology of ODP Leg 127 sites

This initial survey of pollen from 192 samples from Hole 794A, supplemented by 189 samples from Hole 795 and 797B, suggests that marine pollen assemblages from the southwestern Sea of Japan provide a consistent Neogene pollen stratigraphy and a solid basis for regional paleoenvironmental reconstructions. Late Miocene vegetation inferred from these pollen data, a mix of conifer and broad-leaf elements with now-extinct Tertiary types well represented, appears similar to Aniai-type floras of Japan. During the late Miocene through early Pliocene, as Tertiary types declined, conifers (including the Sequoia/Cryptomeria group) became more prominent than broad-leaf elements, and herbs played an increasing role in the vegetation. Middle Pliocene pollen assemblages imply significant changes in forest composition. In a 500,000-yr interval centered at ~4 m.y., Tertiary and warm-temperate deciduous types re-expanded and were comparable to or greater than middle-late Miocene levels. Temperate and cold-temperate conifers {Picea, Abies, Tsuga) were minimal. Subsequently, Tertiary and deciduous forest components (including Quercus) decreased, Picea, Tsuga, and Abies were again prominent, and herbs formed an increasingly larger part of the vegetation. Between ~3 m.y. and -2.5 m.y., conifers, except for Cryptomeria types, were prominent, Quercus continued to decline, and other broad-leaf trees were minor. Over the last 2 Ma, the very large and frequent changes in forest composition inferred from pollen in the Sea of Japan correspond to forest dynamics inferred from changes in pollen and floral assemblages throughout Japan. Given present vegetation/climate relationships, broad trends in Neogene climate inferred from these preliminary pollen data include decreasing temperatures, increasing seasonality in temperatures and precipitation, and increasing amplitude and frequency of climatic change. Two significant events, centered at ~9 m.y. and ~4 m.y., punctuate the gradual deterioration of the equable warm, humid subtropical/warm temperate late Miocene and early Pliocene climates. The first indication of cold-temperate conditions comparable to those of Pleistocene glacial intervals occurs ~3 m.y. Subsequently, regional climates oscillated rapidly between temperate and cold-temperate regimes that supported conifer and mixed broad-leaf forests; however, climatic extremes were apparently never great enough to displace warm-temperate and temperate forests from Honshu nor to produce arctic climates on the west coast of Japan.

Report on village of Sidney hazard mitigation project.

Description of a flood hazard mitigation project in Sidney, Illinois, whereby 12 floodplain properties along the Right Bank tributary of the Salt Fork River will be purchased, cleared of structures, and held as public open space.

Tabulation showing locations of subways and highway bridges with posted loads and limited vertical and horizontal clearances on marked U.S., interstate and Illinois state routes /

Cover title: Vertical and horizontal clearances of structures.

Variability of fracture toughness in A514/517 plate : executive summary /

Mode of access: Internet.

Investigating the Eastern Extent of the Seattle Fault Zone through Depth to Bedrock and Borehole Analysis in Bellevue, Washington

This study identifies lineaments that indicate fault activity and strengthens previous interpretations of structures within the eastern extent of the Seattle Fault zone in Bellevue, WA. My investigation has compiled geotechnical subsurface data, high-resolution LiDAR imagery, and ground-penetrating radar to produce strip log sections transecting identified lineaments and depth-to-bedrock maps exposing fault structure. My work incorporates field investigation, multiple publicly available datasets, and subsurface modeling. My results include a map showing twenty-eight identified surface lineaments, five strip-log sections, and interpolated depth-to-bedrock and minimum-depth-to-bedrock maps. Several lineaments identified in the minimum-depth-to-bedrock raster are parallel to the Seattle Fault zone and suggest the presence of small splay faults beneath east Bellevue. These results strengthen previous interpretations of seismic profile data located in the study area. Another lineament identified in the minimum-depth-to-bedrock raster suggest an unmapped tear fault accommodating differential offset along fault strike between Mercer Island and Bellevue. This work also demonstrates the utility of publicly available datasets such as geotechnical subsurface explorations and LiDAR imagery in supplementing geologic investigations in the eastern extent of the Seattle Fault zone.

The Inefficiency of Self-Sufficiency: Uzbekistan's Response to CASA-1000

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Bimanual coordination: constraints imposed by the relative timing of homologous muscle activation

It has often been supposed that patterns of rhythmic bimanual coordination in which homologous muscles are engaged simultaneously, are performed in a more stable manner than those in which the same muscles are activated in an alternating fashion. In order to assess the efficacy of this constraint, the present study investigated the effect of forearm posture (prone or supine) on bimanual abduction-adduction movements of the wrist in isodirectional and non-isodirectional modes of coordination. Irrespective of forearm posture, non-isodirectional coordination was observed to be more stable than isodirectional coordination. In the latter condition, there was a more severe deterioration of coordination accuracy/stability as a function of cycling frequency than in the former condition. With elevations in cycling frequency, the performers recruited extra mechanical degrees of freedom, principally via flexion-extension of the wrist, which gave rise to increasing motion in the vertical plane. The increases in movement amplitude in the vertical plane were accompanied by decreasing amplitude in the horizontal plane. In agreement with previous studies, the present findings confirm that the relative timing of homologous muscle activation acts as a principal constraint upon the stability of interlimb coordination. Furthermore, it is argued that the use of manipulations of limb posture to investigate the role of other classes of constraint (e.g. perceptual) should be approached with caution because such manipulations affect the mapping between muscle activation patterns, movement dynamics and kinematics.

Morphometric and cladistic analyses of the phylogeny of Macropodinium (Ciliophora : Litostomatea : Macropodiniidae)

Phylogenetic studies of the genus Macropodinium were conducted using two methods; phenetics and cladistics. The phenetic study of morphometrics suggested that the genus could be divided into 3 groups attributable mostly to cell size and shape. The cladistic study also split the genus into 3 groups related to cell size but groups were further distinguished by patterns of ornamentation. Reconciliation of both approaches revealed considerable congruence, however, it also suggested the existence of convergences in the phenetic study and a lack of resolution in the cladistic study. The morphological diversity of Macropodinium is probably due to evolutionary trends such as increasing body size, allometry and polymerisation of structures. None of these trends, however, was uniformly directional and differential effects were observed in different regions of the phylogenetic tree. Comparison of the phylogeny of Macropodinium to a consensus phylogeny of the macropodids revealed limited incongruence between the 2 trees. The ciliate groups could be related to 2 host groups; the wallaby genera and the kangaroo and wallaroo subgenera. The association with these host groups may be the result of phyletic codescent, ecological resource tracking or a combination of both. Further studies of both host and ciliate phylogeny are necessary to resolve these effects.

Assessment of disease progression in motor neuron disease

Motor neuron disease (MND) is characterised by progressive deterioration of the corticospinal tract, brainstem, and anterior horn cells of the spinal cord. There is no pathognomonic test for the diagnosis of MND, and physicians rely on clinical criteria-upper and lower motor neuron signs-for diagnosis. The presentations, clinical phenotypes, and outcomes of MND are diverse and have not been combined into a marker of disease progression. No single algorithm combines the findings of functional assessments and rating scales, such as those that assess quality of life, with biological markers of disease activity and findings from imaging and neurophysiological assessments. Here, we critically appraise developments in each of these areas and discuss the potential of such measures to be included in the future assessment of disease progression in patients with MND.

Water quality in the Great Barrier Reef region: responses of mangrove, seagrass and macroalgal communities

Marine plants colonise several interconnected ecosystems in the Great Barrier Reef region including tidal wetlands, seagrass meadows and coral reefs. Water quality in some coastal areas is declining from human activities. Losses of mangrove and other tidal wetland communities are mostly the result of reclamation for coastal development of estuaries, e.g. for residential use, port infrastructure or marina development, and result in river bank destabilisation, deterioration of water clarity and loss of key coastal marine habitat. Coastal seagrass meadows are characterized by small ephemeral species. They are disturbed by increased turbidity after extreme flood events, but generally recover. There is no evidence of an overall seagrass decline or expansion. High nutrient and substrate availability and low grazing pressure on nearshore reefs have lead to changed benthic communities with high macroalgal abundance. Conservation and management of GBR macrophytes and their ecosystems is hampered by scarce ecological knowledge across macrophyte community types. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Revegetation strategies for bauxite refinery residue: A case study of Alcan Gove in Northern Territory, Australia

Alumina extraction from bauxite ore with strong alkali produces waste bauxite refinery residue consisting of residue sand and red mud. The amount and composition of refinery residue depend on the purity of the bauxite ore and extraction conditions, and differs between refineries. The refinery residue is usually stored in engineered disposal areas that eventually have to be revegetated. This is challenging because of the alkaline and sodic nature of the residue. At Alcan Gove's bauxite refinery in Gove, Northern Territory, Australia, research into revegetation of bauxite residue has been conducted since the mid-1970s. In this review, we discuss approaches taken by Alcan Gove to achieve revegetation outcomes (soil capping of refinery residue) on wet-slurry disposal areas. Problems encountered in the past include poor drainage and water logging during the wet season, and salt scalding and capillary rise during the dry season. The amount of available water in the soil capping is the most important determinant of vegetation survival in the seasonally dry climate. Vegetation cover was found to prevent deterioration of the soil cover by minimising capillary rise of alkalinity from the refinery residue. The sodicity and alkalinity of the residue in old impoundments has diminished slightly over the 25 years since it was deposited. However, development of a blocky structure in red mud, presumably due to desiccation, allows root penetration, thereby supplying additional water to salt and alkali-tolerant plant species. This has led to the establishment of an ecosystem that approaches a native woodland.