959 resultados para Delphi method


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This paper considers two problems that frequently arise in dynamic discrete choice problems but have not received much attention with regard to simulation methods. The first problem is how to simulate unbiased simulators of probabilities conditional on past history. The second is simulating a discrete transition probability model when the underlying dependent variable is really continuous. Both methods work well relative to reasonable alternatives in the application discussed. However, in both cases, for this application, simpler methods also provide reasonably good results.

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The purpose of the book is to use Delphi as a vehicle to introduce some fundamental algorithms and to illustrate several mathematical and problem-solving techniques. This book is therefore intended to be more of a reference for problem-solving, with the solution expressed in Delphi. It introduces a somewhat eclectic collection of material, much of which will not be found in a typical book on Pascal or Delphi. Many of the topics have been used by the author over a period of about ten years at Bond University, Australia in various subjects from 1993 to 2003. Much of the work was connected with a data structures subject (second programming course) conducted variously in MODULA-2, Oberon and Delphi, at Bond University, however there is considerable other, more recent material, e.g., a chapter on Sudoku.

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As research has become an important indicator of TEFL academics’ overall performance in Chinese higher education institutions, it is critical that TEFL academics are able to meet the expectation of conducting research. This mixed-method study (an initial survey followed by a qualitative collective case study)investigated research productivity of Chinese TEFL academics and associated influences, with the ultimate objective of constructing a framework to help build their research capacity in the future. The findings from this study revealed that the 182 Chinese TEFL academics’ research productivity during 2004-2008 was relatively low. Four influences were identified that impacted on thier research productivity: TEFL disciplinary influences, institutional and departmental research environments, individual characteristics desirable for research, and TEFL academics’ perceptions about research. Drawing upon the above findings, a Framework towards Enhancing Chinese TEFL Academics’ Research Productivity (FECTARP) was constructed. The FECTAR presented a framework for Chinese institutions and TEFL departments to enhance their TEFL academics' research capacity.

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In this paper the renormalization group (RG) method of Chen, Goldenfeld, and Oono [Phys. Rev. Lett., 73 (1994), pp.1311-1315; Phys. Rev. E, 54 (1996), pp.376-394] is presented in a pedagogical way to increase its visibility in applied mathematics and to argue favorably for its incorporation into the corresponding graduate curriculum.The method is illustrated by some linear and nonlinear singular perturbation problems. Key word. © 2012 Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.

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This paper introduces a straightforward method to asymptotically solve a variety of initial and boundary value problems for singularly perturbed ordinary differential equations whose solution structure can be anticipated. The approach is simpler than conventional methods, including those based on asymptotic matching or on eliminating secular terms. © 2010 by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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Background Paramedic education has evolved in recent times from vocational post-employment to tertiary pre-employment supplemented by clinical placement. Simulation is advocated as a means of transferring learned skills to clinical practice. Sole reliance of simulation learning using mannequin-based models may not be sufficient to prepare students for variance in human anatomy. In 2012, we trialled the use of fresh frozen human cadavers to supplement undergraduate paramedic procedural skill training. The purpose of this study is to evaluate whether cadaveric training is an effective adjunct to mannequin simulation and clinical placement. Methods A multi-method approach was adopted. The first step involved a Delphi methodology to formulate and validate the evaluation instrument. The instrument comprised of knowledge-based MCQs, Likert for self-evaluation of procedural skills and behaviours, and open answer. The second step involved a pre-post evaluation of the 2013 cadaveric training. Results One hundred and fourteen students attended the workshop and 96 evaluations were included in the analysis, representing a return rate of 84%. There was statistically significant improved anatomical knowledge after the workshop. Students' self-rated confidence in performing procedural skills on real patients improved significantly after the workshop: inserting laryngeal mask (MD 0.667), oropharyngeal (MD 0.198) and nasopharyngeal (MD 0.600) airways, performing Bag-Valve-Mask (MD 0.379), double (MD 0.344) and triple (MD 0.326,) airway manoeuvre, doing 12-lead electrocardiography (MD 0.729), using McGrath(R) laryngoscope (MD 0.726), using McGrath(R) forceps to remove foreign body (MD 0.632), attempting thoracocentesis (MD 1.240), and putting on a traction splint (MD 0.865). The students commented that the workshop provided context to their theoretical knowledge and that they gained an appreciation of the differences in normal tissue variation. Following engagement in/ completion of the workshop, students were more aware of their own clinical and non-clinical competencies. Conclusions The paramedic profession has evolved beyond patient transport with minimal intervention to providing comprehensive both emergency and non-emergency medical care. With limited availability of clinical placements for undergraduate paramedic training, there is an increasing demand on universities to provide suitable alternatives. Our findings suggested that cadaveric training using fresh frozen cadavers provides an effective adjunct to simulated learning and clinical placements.

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Fault identification in industrial machine is a topic of major importance under engineering point of view. In fact, the possibility to identify not only the type, but also the severity and the position of a fault occurred along a shaft-line allows quick maintenance and shorten the downtime. This is really important in the power generation industry where the units are often of several tenths of meters long and where the rotors are enclosed by heavy and pressure-sealed casings. In this paper, an industrial experimental case is presented related to the identification of the unbalance on a large size steam turbine of about 1.3 GW, belonging to a nuclear power plant. The case history is analyzed by considering the vibrations measured by the condition monitoring system of the unit. A model-based method in the frequency domain, developed by the authors, is introduced in detail and it is then used to identify the position of the fault and its severity along the shaft-line. The complete model of the unit (rotor – modeled by means of finite elements, bearings – modeled by linearized damping and stiffness coefficients and foundation – modeled by means of pedestals) is analyzed and discussed before being used for the fault identification. The assessment of the actual fault was done by inspection during a scheduled maintenance and excellent correspondence was found with the identified one by means of authors’ proposed method. Finally a complete discussion is presented about the effectiveness of the method, even in presence of a not fine tuned machine model and considering only few measuring planes for the machine vibration.

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Although urbanization can promote social and economic development, it can also cause various problems. As the key decision makers of urbanization, local governments should be able to evaluate urbanization performance, summarize experiences, and find problems caused by urbanization. This paper introduces a hybrid Entropy–McKinsey Matrix method for evaluating sustainable urbanization. The McKinsey Matrix is commonly referred to as the GE Matrix. The values of a development index (DI) and coordination index (CI) are calculated by employing the Entropy method and are used as a basis for constructing a GE Matrix. The matrix can assist in assessing sustainable urbanization performance by locating the urbanization state point. A case study of the city of Jinan in China demonstrates the process of using the evaluation method. The case study reveals that the method is an effective tool in helping policy makers understand the performance of urban sustainability and therefore formulate suitable strategies for guiding urbanization toward better sustainability.

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The generation of a correlation matrix for set of genomic sequences is a common requirement in many bioinformatics problems such as phylogenetic analysis. Each sequence may be millions of bases long and there may be thousands of such sequences which we wish to compare, so not all sequences may fit into main memory at the same time. Each sequence needs to be compared with every other sequence, so we will generally need to page some sequences in and out more than once. In order to minimize execution time we need to minimize this I/O. This paper develops an approach for faster and scalable computing of large-size correlation matrices through the maximal exploitation of available memory and reducing the number of I/O operations. The approach is scalable in the sense that the same algorithms can be executed on different computing platforms with different amounts of memory and can be applied to different bioinformatics problems with different correlation matrix sizes. The significant performance improvement of the approach over previous work is demonstrated through benchmark examples.

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Background Obtaining single parasite clones is required for many techniques in malaria research. Cloning by limiting dilution using microscopy-based assessment for parasite growth is an arduous and labor-intensive process. An alternative method for the detection of parasite growth in limiting dilution assays is using a commercial ELISA histidine-rich protein II (HRP2) detection kit. Methods Detection of parasite growth was undertaken using HRP2 ELISA and compared to thick film microscopy. An HRP2 protein standard was used to determine the detection threshold of the HRP2 ELISA assay, and a HRP2 release model was used to extrapolate the amount of parasite growth required for a positive result. Results The HRP2 ELISA was more sensitive than microscopy for detecting parasite growth. The minimum level of HRP2 protein detection of the ELISA was 0.11ng/ml. Modeling of HRP2 release determined that 2,116 parasites are required to complete a full erythrocytic cycle to produce sufficient HRP2 to be detected by the ELISA. Under standard culture conditions this number of parasites is likely to be reached between 8 to 14 days of culture. Conclusions This method provides an accurate and simple way for the detection of parasite growth in limiting dilution assays, reducing time and resources required in traditional methods. Furthermore the method uses spent culture media instead of the parasite-infected red blood cells, enabling culture to continue.

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In this paper, we have synthesized two novel diketopyrrolopyrrole (DPP) based donor-acceptor (D-A) copolymers poly{3,6-dithiophene-2-yl-2,5-di(2-octyl)- pyrrolo[3,4-c]pyrrole-1,4-dione-alt-1,5-bis(dodecyloxy)naphthalene} (PDPPT-NAP) and poly{3,6-dithiophene-2-yl-2,5-di(2-butyldecyl)-pyrrolo[3,4-c]pyrrole-1,4- dione-alt-2-dodecyl-2H-benzo[d][1,2,3]triazole} (PDPPT-BTRZ) via direct arylation organometallic coupling. Both copolymers contain a common electron withdrawing DPP building block which is combined with electron donating alkoxy naphthalene and electron withdrawing alkyl-triazole comonomers. The number average molecular weight (Mn) determined by gel permeation chromatography (GPC) for polymer PDPPT-NAP is around 23 400 g mol-1 whereas for polymer PDPPT-BTRZ it is 18 600 g mol-1. The solid state absorption spectra of these copolymers show a wide range of absorption from 400 nm to 1000 nm with optical band gaps calculated from absorption cut off values in the range of 1.45-1.30 eV. The HOMO values determined for PDPPT-NAP and PDPPT-BTRZ copolymers from photoelectron spectroscopy in air (PESA) data are 5.15 eV and 5.25 eV respectively. These polymers exhibit promising p-channel and ambipolar behaviour when used as an active layer in organic thin-film transistor (OTFT) devices. The highest hole mobility measured for polymer PDPPT-NAP is around 0.0046 cm2 V-1 s-1 whereas the best ambipolar performance was calculated for PDPPT-BTRZ with a hole and electron mobility of 0.01 cm2 V-1 s-1 and 0.006 cm2 V-1 s-1.

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Battery-supercapacitor hybrid energy storage systems can achieve better power and energy performances compared to their individual use. These hybrid systems require separate dc-dc converters, or at least one dc-dc converter for the supercapacitor bank, to connect them to the dc-link of the grid connecting inverter. However, the use of such dc-dc converters introduces additional cost and power losses. Therefore, the possibility of direct connection of energy storage systems, to the dc-link of a diode clamped 3-level inverter is investigated in this paper. Even though the proposed topology does not use dc-dc converters, a vector selection method is proposed to produce a similar control flexibility that is found in the separate dc-dc converter topology. The major issue with the proposed system is the imminent imbalance of the neutral point potential. A PWM technique with modified carriers is used to solve this problem. Simulations are carried out using MATLAB/SIMULINK to verify the efficacy of the proposed system.

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This paper presents a novel dc-link voltage regulation technique for a hybrid inverter system formed by cascading two 3-level inverters. The two inverters are named as “bulk inverter” and “conditioning inverter”. For the hybrid system to act as a nine level inverter, conditioning inverter dc link voltage should be maintained at one third of the bulk inverter dc link voltage. Since the conditioning inverter is energized by two series connected capacitors, dc-link voltage regulation should be carried out by controlling the capacitor charging/discharging times. A detailed analysis of conditioning inverter capacitor charging/discharging process and a simplified general rule, derived from the analysis, are presented in this paper. Time domain simulations were carried out to demonstrate efficacy of the proposed method on regulating the conditioning inverter dc-link voltage under various operating conditions.

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As of today, online reviews have become more and more important in decision making process. In recent years, the problem of identifying useful reviews for users has attracted significant attentions. For instance, in order to select reviews that focus on a particular feature, researchers proposed a method which extracts all associated words of this feature as the relevant information to evaluate and find appropriate reviews. However, the extraction of associated words is not that accurate due to the noise in free review text, and this affects the overall performance negatively. In this paper, we propose a method to select reviews according to a given feature by using a review model generated based upon a domain ontology called product feature taxonomy. The proposed review model provides relevant information about the hierarchical relationships of the features in the review which captures the review characteristics accurately. Our experiment results based on real world review dataset show that our approach is able to improve the review selection performance according to the given criteria effectively.

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Utilising computed tomography scans to allow a virtual analysis of three-dimensional reconstructions of the femur, this project confirms that the traditional 1952 Trotter and Gleser stature estimation equations are inapplicable for a contemporary Queensland population. Therefore, this study introduces modern stature estimation equations for femoral length and fragmentary femoral remains using Bayesian statistics for application in forensic anthropological casework. In addition, it was found that caution needs to be applied when comparing estimated stature to reported stature on the missing persons database due to inaccuracy in Queensland drivers' licences.