The use of scenarios as the basis for combined assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation

Scenarios are used to explore the consequences of different adaptation and mitigation strategies under uncertainty. In this paper, two scenarios are used to explore developments with (1) no mitigation leading to an increase of global mean temperature of 4 °C by 2100 and (2) an ambitious mitigation strategy leading to 2 °C increase by 2100. For the second scenario, uncertainties in the climate system imply that a global mean temperature increase of 3 °C or more cannot be ruled out. Our analysis shows that, in many cases, adaptation and mitigation are not trade-offs but supplements. For example, the number of people exposed to increased water resource stress due to climate change can be substantially reduced in the mitigation scenario, but adaptation will still be required for the remaining large numbers of people exposed to increased stress. Another example is sea level rise, for which, from a global and purely monetary perspective, adaptation (up to 2100) seems more effective than mitigation. From the perspective of poorer and small island countries, however, stringent mitigation is necessary to keep risks at manageable levels. For agriculture, only a scenario based on a combination of adaptation and mitigation is able to avoid serious climate change impacts.

Antigenotoxic effect of kefir and ayran supernatants on fecal water-induced DNA damage in human colon cells

Fermented dairy products and their component bacteria have been shown to possess health-promoting functions in consumers and recently have been suggested to reduce the risk of colorectal cancer. Kefir and ayran are two popular fermented milk drinks that have their origins in the Caucasus region of Russia. The present study aimed to evaluate their potential anticancer properties in colon cells in vitro. The comet assay and transepithelial resistance assay were used to assess the effect of kefir and ayran supernatants on genotoxicity of fecal water samples and on intestinal tight junction integrity. Their antioxidant capacity was measured by trolox equivalent antioxidant capacity assay and compared with that of unfermented milk. The results showed that DNA damage induced by 2 of 4 fecal water samples was significantly decreased by kefir and ayran supernatants and with ayran the effect was dose-dependent. However no effect on intestinal tight junctions was observed. The supernatants of kefir and ayran contained high amounts of acetic and lactic acid but only a very small quantity of caproic and butyric acid, and they showed significantly greater antioxidant capacity than milk. These findings suggest kefir and ayran can reduce DNA damage, which might be due to their antioxidant capacities.

The role of corticospinal tract damage in chronic motor recovery and neurorehabilitation: a pilot study

Background. With diffusion-tensor imaging (DTi) it is possible to estimate the structural characteristics of fiber bundles in vivo. This study used DTi to infer damage to the corticospinal tract (CST) and relates this parameter to (a) the level of residual motor ability at least 1 year poststroke and (b) the outcome of intensive motor rehabilitation with constraint-induced movement therapy (CIMT). Objective. To explore the role of CST damage in recovery and CIMT efficacy. Methods. Ten patients with low-functioning hemiparesis were scanned and tested at baseline, before and after CIMT. Lesion overlap with the CST was indexed as reduced anisotropy compared with a CST variability map derived from 26 controls. Residual motor ability was measured through the Wolf Motor Function Test (WMFT) and the Motor Activity Log (MAL) acquired at baseline. CIMT benefit was assessed through the pre—post treatment comparison of WMFT and MAL performance. Results. Lesion overlap with the CST correlated with residual motor ability at baseline, with greater deficits observed in patients with more extended CST damage. Infarct volume showed no systematic association with residual motor ability. CIMT led to significant improvements in motor function but outcome was not associated with the extent of CST damage or infarct volume. Conclusion. The study gives in vivo support for the proposition that structural CST damage, not infarct volume, is a major predictor for residual functional ability in the chronic state. The results provide initial evidence for positive effects of CIMT in patients with varying, including more severe, CST damage.

Tephra fallout hazard assessment for a Plinian eruption scenario at Volcán de Colima (Mexico)

Volcanic ash fallout associated with renewal of explosive activity at Colima, represents a serious threat to the surrounding urbanized area. Here we assess the tephra fallout hazard associated with a Plinian eruption scenario. The eruptive history of Volcán de Colima shows that Plinian eruptions occur approximately every 100 years and the last eruption, the 1913, represents the largest historic eruption of this volcano. We used the last eruption as a reference to discuss volcanic hazard and risk scenarios connected with ash fallout. Tephra fallout deposits are modeled using HAZMAP, a model based on a semi-analytical solution of the advection– diffusion–sedimentation equation for volcanic particles. Based on a statistical study of wind profiles at Colima region, we first reconstructed ash loading maps and then computed ground load probability maps for different seasons. The obtained results show that a Plinian eruptive scenario at Volcán de Colima, could seriously damage more than 10 small towns and ranches, and potentially affect big cities located at tens of kilometers from the eruptive center. The probability maps obtained are aimed to give support to the risk mitigation strategies

Contributing understanding of mitigation options for phosphorus and sediment to a review of the efficacy of contemporary agricultural stewardship measures

Experiences from the Mitigation Options for Phosphorus and Sediment (MOPS) projects, which aim to determine the effectiveness of measures to reduce pollutant loading from agricultural land to surface waters, have been used to contribute to the findings of a recent paper (Kay et al., 2009, Agricultural Systems, 99, 67–75), which reviewed the efficacy of contemporary agricultural stewardship measures for ameliorating the water pollution problems of key concern to the UK water industry. MOPS1 is a recently completed 3-year research project on three different soil types in the UK, which focused on mitigation options for winter cereals. MOPS1 demonstrated that tramlines can be the major pathway for sediment and nutrient transfer from arable hillslopes, and that although minimum tillage, crop residue incorporation, contour cultivation, and beetle banks also have potential to be cost-effective mitigation options, tramline management is the one of the most promising treatments for mitigating diffuse pollution losses, as it was able to reduce sediment and nutrient losses by 72–99% in four out of five site years trialled. Using information from the MOPS projects, this paper builds on the findings of Kay et al. to provide an updated picture of the evidence available and the immediate needs for research in this area.

Determining the cost of in-field mitigation options to reduce sediment and phosphorus loss

The Mitigation Options for Phosphorus and Sediment (MOPS) project investigated the effectiveness of within-field control measures (tramline management, straw residue management, type of cultivation and direction, and vegetative buffers) in terms of mitigating sediment and phosphorus loss from winter-sown combinable cereal crops using three case study sites. To determine the cost of the approaches, simple financial spreadsheet models were constructed at both farm and regional levels. Taking into account crop areas, crop rotation margins per hectare were calculated to reflect the costs of crop establishment, fertiliser and agro-chemical applications, harvesting, and the associated labour and machinery costs. Variable and operating costs associated with each mitigation option were then incorporated to demonstrate the impact on the relevant crop enterprise and crop rotation margins. These costs were then compared to runoff, sediment and phosphorus loss data obtained from monitoring hillslope-length scale field plots. Each of the mitigation options explored in this study had potential for reducing sediment and phosphorus losses from arable land under cereal crops. Sediment losses were reduced from between 9 kg ha−1 to as much as 4780 kg ha−1 with a corresponding reduction in phosphorus loss from 0.03 kg ha−1 to 2.89 kg ha−1. In percentage terms reductions of phosphorus were between 9% and 99%. Impacts on crop rotation margins also varied. Minimum tillage resulted in cost savings (up to £50 ha−1) whilst other options showed increased costs (up to £19 ha−1 for straw residue incorporation). Overall, the results indicate that each of the options has potential for on-farm implementation. However, tramline management appeared to have the greatest potential for reducing runoff, sediment, and phosphorus losses from arable land (between 69% and 99%) and is likely to be considered cost-effective with only a small additional cost of £2–4 ha−1, although further work is needed to evaluate alternative tramline management methods. Tramline management is also the only option not incorporated within current policy mechanisms associated with reducing soil erosion and phosphorus loss and in light of its potential is an approach that should be encouraged once further evidence is available.

Can REDD+ reconcile local priorities and needs with global mitigation benefits? lessons from Angai Forest, Tanzania

The scope of the reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) mechanism has broadened REDD+ to accommodate different country interests such as natural forests, protected areas, as well as forests under community-based management. In Tanzania the REDD+ mechanism is still under development and pilot projects are at an early stage. In this paper, we seek to understand how local priorities and needs could be met in REDD+ implementation and how these expectations match with global mitigation benefits. We examine the local priorities and needs in the use of land and forest resources in the Angai Villages Land Forest Reserve (AVLFR) in the Liwale District of Lindi Region in Tanzania. Primary data was collected in two villages, Mihumo and Lilombe, using semistructured key informant interviews and participatory rural appraisal methods. In addition, the key informant interviews were conducted with other village, district, and national level actors, as well as international donors. Findings show that in the two communities REDD+ is seen as something new and is generating new expectations among communities. However, the Angai villagers highlight three key priorities that have yet to be integrated into the design of REDD+: water scarcity, rural development, and food security. At the local level improved forest governance and sustainable management of forest resources have been identified as one way to achieve livelihood diversification. Although the national goals of REDD+ include poverty reduction, these goals are not necessarily conducive to the goals of these communities. There exist both structural and cultural limits to the ability of the Angai villages to implement these goals and to improve forestry governance. Given the vulnerability to current and future climate variability and change it will be important to consider how the AVLFR will be managed and for whose benefit?

Effect of processed and red meat on endogenous nitrosation and DNA damage

Haem in red meat (RM) stimulates the endogenous production of mutagenic nitroso compounds (NOC). Processed (nitrite-preserved red) meat additionally contains high concentrations of preformed NOC. In two studies, of a fresh RM versus a vegetarian (VEG) diet (six males and six females) and of a nitrite-preserved red meat (PM) versus a VEG diet (5 males and 11 females), we investigated whether processing of meat might increase colorectal cancer risk by stimulating nitrosation and DNA damage. Meat diets contained 420 g (males) or 366 g (females) meat/per day. Faecal homogenates from day 10 onwards were analysed for haem and NOC and asso- ciated supernatants for genotoxicity. Means are adjusted for differ- ences in male to female ratios between studies. Faecal NOC concentrations on VEG diets were low (2.6 and 3.5 mmol/g) but significantly higher on meat diets (PM 175 ± 19 nmol/g versus RM 185 ± 22 nmol/g; P 5 0.75). The RM diet resulted in a larger pro- portion of nitrosyl iron (RM 78% versus PM 54%; P < 0.0001) and less nitrosothiols (RM 12% versus PM 19%; P < 0.01) and other NOC (RM 10% versus PM 27%; P < 0.0001). There was no statis- tically significant difference in DNA breaks induced by faecal water (FW) following PM and RM diets (P 5 0.80). However, PM re- sulted in higher levels of oxidized pyrimidines (P < 0.05). Surpris- ingly, VEG diets resulted in significantly more FW-induced DNA strand breaks than the meat diets (P < 0.05), which needs to be clarified in further studies. Meats cured with nitrite have the same effect as fresh RM on endogenous nitrosation but show increased FW-induced oxidative DNA damage.

Genistein protects prostate cells against hydrogen peroxide-induced DNA damage and induces expression of genes involved in the defence against oxidative stress

Prostate cancer is one of the most frequent cancer types in Western societies and predominately occurs in the elderly male. The strong age-related increase of prostate cancer is associated with a progressive accumulation of oxidative DNA damage which is presumably supported by a decline of the cellular antioxidative defence during ageing. Risk of developing prostate cancer is much lower in many Asian countries where soy food is an integral part of diet. Therefore, isoflavones from soy were suggested to have chemopreventive activities in prostate cells. Here, we have investigated the hypothesis that the soy-isoflavone genistein could protect DNA of LAPC-4 prostate cells from oxidative stress-related damage by enhancing the expression of antioxidative genes and proteins. A 24 h preincubation with genistein (1-30 microM) protected cells from hydrogen peroxide-induced DNA damage, as determined by the comet assay. Analysis of two cDNA macroarrays, each containing 96 genes of biotransformation and stress response, revealed a modulated expression of 3 genes at 1 microM and of 19 genes at 10 microM genistein. Real-time PCR confirmed the induction of three genes encoding products with antioxidant activities, namely glutathione reductase (2.7-fold), microsomal glutathione S-transferase 1 (1.9-fold) and metallothionein 1X (6.3-fold), at 1-30 microM genistein. 17Beta-estradiol, in contrast, decreased the expression of metallothionein 1X at 0.3 microM (2.0-fold), possibly pointing to an estrogen receptor-mediated regulation of this gene. Immunocytochemical staining revealed an induction of metallothionein proteins at 30 microM genistein, while their intracellular localization was unaffected. Metallothioneins were previously found to protect cells from hydrogen peroxide-induced DNA damage. Hence, our findings indicate that genistein protects prostate cells from oxidative stress-related DNA damage presumably by inducing the expression of antioxidative products, such as metallothioneins. Genistein, therefore, might counteract the age-related decline of important antioxidative defence systems which in turn maintain DNA integrity.