970 resultados para Counterfactual conditional
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SUMMARY When exposed to heat stress, plants display a particular set of cellular and molecular responses, such as chaperones expression, which are highly conserved in all organisms. In chapter 1, I studied the ability of heat shock genes to become transiently and abundantly induced under various temperature regimes. To this aim, I designed a highly sensitive heat-shock dependent conditional gene expression system in the moss Physcomitrella patens, using the soybean heatinducible promoter (hsp17.3B). Heat-induced expression of various reporter genes was over three orders of magnitude, in tight correlation with the intensity and duration of the heat treatments. By performing repeated heating/cooling cycles, a massive accumulation of recombinant proteins was obtained. Interestingly, the hsp17.3B promoter was also activated by specific organic chemicals. Thus, in chapter 2, I took advantage of the extreme sensitivity of this promoter to small temperature variations to further address the role of various natural and organic chemicals and develop a plant based-bioassay that can serve as an early warning indicator of toxicity by pollutants and heavy metals. A screen of several organic pollutants from textile and paper industry showed that chlorophenols as well as sulfonated anthraquinones elicited a heat shock like response at noninducing temperatures. Their effects were synergistically amplified by mild elevated temperatures. In contrast to standard methods of pollutant detection, this plant-based biosensor allowed to monitor early stress-responses, in correlation with long-term toxic effect, and to attribute effective toxicity thresholds for pollutants, in a context of varying environmental cues. In chapter 3, I deepened the study of the primary mechanism by which plants sense mild temperature variations and trigger a cellular signal leading to the heat shock response. In addition to the above described heat-inducible reporter line, I generated a P. patens transgenic line to measure, in vivo, variations of cytosolic calcium during heat treatment, and another line to monitor the role of protein unfolding in heat-shock sensing and signalling. The heat shock signalling pathway was found to be triggered by the plasma membrane, where temperature up shift specifically induced the transient opening of a putative high afimity calcium channel. The calcium influx triggered a signalling cascade leading to the activation of the heat shock genes, independently on the presence of misfolded proteins in the cytoplasm. These results strongly suggest that changes in the fluidity of the plasma membrane are the primary trigger of the heatshocksignalling pathway in plants. The present thesis contributes to the understanding of the basic mechanism by which plants perceive and respond to heat and chemical stresses. This may contribute to developing appropriate better strategies to enhance plant productivity under the increasingly stressful environment of global warming. RÉSUME Les plantes exposées à des températures élevées déclenchent rapidement des réponses cellulaires qui conduisent à l'induction de gènes codant pour les heat shock proteins (HSPs). En fonction de la durée d'exposition et de la vitesse à laquelle la température augmente, les HSPs sont fortement et transitoirement induites. Dans le premier chapitre, cette caractéristique aété utilisée pour développer un système inductible d'expression de gènes dans la mousse Physcomitrella patens. En utilisant plusieurs gènes rapporteurs, j'ai montré que le promoteur du gène hsp17.3B du Soja est activé d'une manière. homogène dans tous les tissus de la mousse proportionnellement à l'intensité du heat shock physiologique appliqué. Un très fort taux de protéines recombinantes peut ainsi être produit en réalisant plusieurs cycles induction/recovery. De plus, ce promoteur peut également être activé par des composés organiques, tels que les composés anti-inflammatoires, ce qui constitue une bonne alternative à l'induction par la chaleur. Les HSPs sont induites pour remédier aux dommages cellulaires qui surviennent. Étant donné que le promoteur hsp17.3B est très sensible à des petites augmentations de température ainsi qu'à des composés chimiques, j'ai utilisé les lignées développées dans le chapitre 1 pour identifier des polluants qui déclenchent une réaction de défense impliquant les HSPs. Après un criblage de plusieurs composés, les chlorophénols et les antraquinones sulfonés ont été identifiés comme étant activateurs du promoteur de stress. La détection de leurs effets a été réalisée seulement après quelques heures d'exposition et corrèle parfaitement avec les effets toxiques détectés après de longues périodes d'exposition. Les produits identifiés montrent aussi un effet synergique avec la température, ce qui fait du biosensor développé dans ce chapitre un bon outil pour révéler les effets réels des polluants dans un environnement où les stress chimiques sont combinés aux stress abiotiques. Le troisième chapitre est consacré à l'étude des mécanismes précoces qui permettent aux plantes de percevoir la chaleur et ainsi de déclencher une cascade de signalisation spécifique qui aboutit à l'induction des gènes HSPs. J'ai généré deux nouvelles lignées afin de mesurer en temps réel les changements de concentrations du calcium cytosolique ainsi que l'état de dénaturation des protéines au cours du heat shock. Quand la fluidité de la membrane augmente après élévation de la température, elle semble induire l'ouverture d'un canal qui permet de faire entrer le calcium dans les cellules. Ce dernier initie une cascade de signalisation qui finit par activer la transcription des gènes HSPs indépendamment de la dénaturation de protéines cytoplasmiques. Les résultats présentés dans ce chapitre montrent que la perception de la chaleur se fait essentiellement au niveau de la membrane plasmique qui joue un rôle majeur dans la régulation des gènes HSPs. L'élucidation des mécanismes par lesquels les plantes perçoivent les signaux environnementaux est d'une grande utilité pour le développement de nouvelles stratégies afin d'améliorer la productivité des plantes soumises à des conditions extrêmes. La présente thèse contribue à décortiquer la voie de signalisation impliquée dans la réponse à la chaleur.
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The E3 ubiquitin ligase NEDD4-2 (encoded by the Nedd4L gene) regulates the amiloride-sensitive epithelial Na+ channel (ENaC/SCNN1) to mediate Na+ homeostasis. Mutations in the human β/γENaC subunits that block NEDD4-2 binding or constitutive ablation of exons 6-8 of Nedd4L in mice both result in salt-sensitive hypertension and elevated ENaC activity (Liddle syndrome). To determine the role of renal tubular NEDD4-2 in adult mice, we generated tetracycline-inducible, nephron-specific Nedd4L KO mice. Under standard and high-Na+ diets, conditional KO mice displayed decreased plasma aldosterone but normal Na+/K+ balance. Under a high-Na+ diet, KO mice exhibited hypercalciuria and increased blood pressure, which were reversed by thiazide treatment. Protein expression of βENaC, γENaC, the renal outer medullary K+ channel (ROMK), and total and phosphorylated thiazide-sensitive Na+Cl- cotransporter (NCC) levels were increased in KO kidneys. Unexpectedly, Scnn1a mRNA, which encodes the αENaC subunit, was reduced and proteolytic cleavage of αENaC decreased. Taken together, these results demonstrate that loss of NEDD4-2 in adult renal tubules causes a new form of mild, salt-sensitive hypertension without hyperkalemia that is characterized by upregulation of NCC, elevation of β/γENaC, but not αENaC, and a normal Na+/K+ balance maintained by downregulation of ENaC activity and upregulation of ROMK.
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Canonical Wnt signaling plays a critical role in stem cell maintenance in epithelial homeostasis and carcinogenesis. Here, we show that in the mouse this role is critically mediated by Bcl9/Bcl9l, the mammalian homologues of Legless, which in Drosophila is required for Armadillo/beta-catenin signaling. Conditional ablation of Bcl9/Bcl9l in the intestinal epithelium, where the essential role of Wnt signaling in epithelial homeostasis and stem cell maintenance is well documented, resulted in decreased expression of intestinal stem cell markers and impaired regeneration of ulcerated colon epithelium. Adenocarcinomas with aberrant Wnt signaling arose with similar incidence in wild-type and mutant mice. However, transcriptional profiles were vastly different: Whereas wild-type tumors displayed characteristics of epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) and stem cell-like properties, these properties were largely abrogated in mutant tumors. These findings reveal an essential role for Bcl9/Bcl9l in regulating a subset of Wnt target genes involved in controlling EMT and stem cell-related features and suggest that targeting the Bcl9/Bcl9l arm of Wnt signaling in Wnt-activated cancers might attenuate these traits, which are associated with tumor invasion, metastasis, and resistance to therapy.
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In my first project, I analyzed the role of the amiloride-sensitive epithelial sodium channel ENaC) in the skin during wound healing. ENaC is present in the skin and a function in keratinocyte differentiation and barrier formation has been demonstrated. Previous findings suggested, that ENaC might be implicated in keratinocyte migration, although its role in wound healing was not analyzed yet. Using skin-specific (K14-Cre) conditional ENaC knockout and overexpressing mice, I determined the wound closure kinetic and performed morphometric measurements. The time course of wound repair was not significantly different in knockouts or transgenics when compared to control mice and the morphology of the closing wound was not altered. In my second project, I studied the glucocorticoid-induced leucine zipper (GILZ, Tsc22d3). GILZ is widely expressed and an important role has been predicted in immunity, adipogenesis and renal sodium handling. Mice were generated that constitutively lack all the functional domains of the Gilz gene. In these mice, the expression of GILZ mRNA transcripts and protein were completely abolished in all tissues tested. Surprisingly, knockout mice survived. To test whether GILZ mimicks glucocorticoid action, we studied its implication in T- and B- cell development and in a model of sepsis. We measured cytokine secretion in different inflammatory models, like in peritoneal and bone marrow-derived macrophages, in splenocytes and a model of sepsis. In all our experiments, cytokine secretion from GILZ- deficient cells was not different from controls. From 6 months onwards, knockout mice contained significantly less body fat and were lighter. Following sodium and water deprivation experiments, water and salt homeostasis was preserved. Sterility of knockout males was associated with a severe testis dysplasia, smaller seminiferous tubules, the number of Sertoli and germ cell was reduced while increased apoptosis, but not cell proliferation, was evidenced. The interstitial Leydig cell population was augmented, and higher plasma FSH and testosterone levels were found. Interestingly, the expression of the target gene Ppar2 was diminished in the testis and in the liver, but not in the skin, kidney or fat. Tsc22d1 mRNA transcript level was found to be upregulated in testis, but not in the kidney or fat tissue. In most tissue, excepted the testis, GILZ-deficient mice reveal functional redundancy amongst members of the Tsc22d family or genes involved in the same regulatory pathways. In summary, contrarily to the published in vitro data, GILZ does not play a crucial role attributed in immunology or inflammation, but we identified a novel function in spermatogenesis. -- Dans mon premier projet, j'ai analysé le rôle du canal épithélial sodique sensible à l'amiloride (ENaC) dans la cicatrisation de la peau. ENaC est présent dans la peau et il a une fonction dans la différenciation des kératinocytes et dans la formation de la barrière. Des études suggèrent qu'ENaC pourrait être impliqué dans la migration des kératinocytes, cependant, son rôle dans la cicatrisation n'a pas encore été étudié. A l'aide de souris qui surexpriment ou qui sont knockout pour ENaC, spécifiquement dans la peau (K14-Cre), j'ai analysé le temps de clôture de la cicatrice et j'ai aussi étudié la morphologie de la plaie guérissant. Chez les souris qui surexpriment ou chez les knockouts, la vitesse de fermeture et la morphologie de la cicatrice étaient identiques aux souris contrôles. Dans mon second projet, j'ai étudié le glucocorticoid-induced leucine zipper (GILZ, Tsc22d3). GILZ est largement exprimé et un rôle important a été prédit dans l'immunité, l'adipogénèse et le transport sodique rénal. Des souris ont été générées dont les domaines fonctionnels du gène Gilz sont éliminés. L'expression de GILZ en ARNm et protéine a été complètement abolie dans tous les tissus testés. Étonnamment, ces souris knockout survivent. Afin de tester si GILZ imite les effets des glucocorticoïdes, nous avons étudié son implication dans le développement des cellules T et B ainsi qu'un modèle de septicémie. Nous avons mesuré la sécrétion de cytokines à partir de différents modèles d'inflammation tels que des macrophages péritonéaux ou de moelle, de splénocytes ou encore d'un modèle de septicémie. Dans toutes nos expériences, la sécrétion de cytokines de cellules GILZ-déficientes était semblable. Dès 6 mois, les knockouts contenaient significativement moins de graisses et étaient plus légères. Suite à une privation sodique et aqueuse, l'homéostasie du sel et de l'eau était préservée. Les mâles knockouts présentaient une stérilité accompagnée d'une dysplasie testiculaire sévère, de tubules séminifères étaient plus petits et contenaient un nombre réduit de cellules de Sertoli et de cellules germinales. L'apoptose était augmentée dans ces cellules mais pas la prolifération cellulaire. Le nombre de cellules de Leydig était aussi plus élevé, ainsi que la FSH et la testostérone. L'expression du gène cible Pparγ2 était diminuée dans le testicule et le foie, mais pas dans la peau, le rein ou le tissu adipeux. L'ARNm de Tsc22d1 était plus exprimé dans le testicule, mais pas dans le rein ou le tissu adipeux. Dans la plupart des tissus, sauf le testicule, les souris knockouts révélaient une redondance fonctionnelle des autres membres de la famille Tsc22d ou de gènes impliqués dans les mêmes voies de régulation. En résumé, contrairement aux données in vitro, GILZ ne joue pas un rôle essentiel en immunologie, mais nous avons identifié une nouvelle fonction dans la spermatogénèse.
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This thesis focuses on theoretical asset pricing models and their empirical applications. I aim to investigate the following noteworthy problems: i) if the relationship between asset prices and investors' propensities to gamble and to fear disaster is time varying, ii) if the conflicting evidence for the firm and market level skewness can be explained by downside risk, Hi) if costly learning drives liquidity risk. Moreover, empirical tests support the above assumptions and provide novel findings in asset pricing, investment decisions, and firms' funding liquidity. The first chapter considers a partial equilibrium model where investors have heterogeneous propensities to gamble and fear disaster. Skewness preference represents the desire to gamble, while kurtosis aversion represents fear of extreme returns. Using US data from 1988 to 2012, my model demonstrates that in bad times, risk aversion is higher, more people fear disaster, and fewer people gamble, in contrast to good times. This leads to a new empirical finding: gambling preference has a greater impact on asset prices during market downturns than during booms. The second chapter consists of two essays. The first essay introduces a foramula based on conditional CAPM for decomposing the market skewness. We find that the major market upward and downward movements can be well preadicted by the asymmetric comovement of betas, which is characterized by an indicator called "Systematic Downside Risk" (SDR). We find that SDR can efafectively forecast future stock market movements and we obtain out-of-sample R-squares (compared with a strategy using historical mean) of more than 2.27% with monthly data. The second essay reconciles a well-known empirical fact: aggregating positively skewed firm returns leads to negatively skewed market return. We reconcile this fact through firms' greater response to negative maraket news than positive market news. We also propose several market return predictors, such as downside idiosyncratic skewness. The third chapter studies the funding liquidity risk based on a general equialibrium model which features two agents: one entrepreneur and one external investor. Only the investor needs to acquire information to estimate the unobservable fundamentals driving the economic outputs. The novelty is that information acquisition is more costly in bad times than in good times, i.e. counter-cyclical information cost, as supported by previous empirical evidence. Later we show that liquidity risks are principally driven by costly learning. Résumé Cette thèse présente des modèles théoriques dévaluation des actifs et leurs applications empiriques. Mon objectif est d'étudier les problèmes suivants: la relation entre l'évaluation des actifs et les tendances des investisseurs à parier et à crainadre le désastre varie selon le temps ; les indications contraires pour l'entreprise et l'asymétrie des niveaux de marché peuvent être expliquées par les risques de perte en cas de baisse; l'apprentissage coûteux augmente le risque de liquidité. En outre, des tests empiriques confirment les suppositions ci-dessus et fournissent de nouvelles découvertes en ce qui concerne l'évaluation des actifs, les décisions relatives aux investissements et la liquidité de financement des entreprises. Le premier chapitre examine un modèle d'équilibre où les investisseurs ont des tendances hétérogènes à parier et à craindre le désastre. La préférence asymétrique représente le désir de parier, alors que le kurtosis d'aversion représente la crainte du désastre. En utilisant les données des Etats-Unis de 1988 à 2012, mon modèle démontre que dans les mauvaises périodes, l'aversion du risque est plus grande, plus de gens craignent le désastre et moins de gens parient, conatrairement aux bonnes périodes. Ceci mène à une nouvelle découverte empirique: la préférence relative au pari a un plus grand impact sur les évaluations des actifs durant les ralentissements de marché que durant les booms économiques. Exploitant uniquement cette relation générera un revenu excédentaire annuel de 7,74% qui n'est pas expliqué par les modèles factoriels populaires. Le second chapitre comprend deux essais. Le premier essai introduit une foramule base sur le CAPM conditionnel pour décomposer l'asymétrie du marché. Nous avons découvert que les mouvements de hausses et de baisses majeures du marché peuvent être prédits par les mouvements communs des bêtas. Un inadicateur appelé Systematic Downside Risk, SDR (risque de ralentissement systématique) est créé pour caractériser cette asymétrie dans les mouvements communs des bêtas. Nous avons découvert que le risque de ralentissement systématique peut prévoir les prochains mouvements des marchés boursiers de manière efficace, et nous obtenons des carrés R hors échantillon (comparés avec une stratégie utilisant des moyens historiques) de plus de 2,272% avec des données mensuelles. Un investisseur qui évalue le marché en utilisant le risque de ralentissement systématique aurait obtenu une forte hausse du ratio de 0,206. Le second essai fait cadrer un fait empirique bien connu dans l'asymétrie des niveaux de march et d'entreprise, le total des revenus des entreprises positiveament asymétriques conduit à un revenu de marché négativement asymétrique. Nous décomposons l'asymétrie des revenus du marché au niveau de l'entreprise et faisons cadrer ce fait par une plus grande réaction des entreprises aux nouvelles négatives du marché qu'aux nouvelles positives du marché. Cette décomposition révélé plusieurs variables de revenus de marché efficaces tels que l'asymétrie caractéristique pondérée par la volatilité ainsi que l'asymétrie caractéristique de ralentissement. Le troisième chapitre fournit une nouvelle base théorique pour les problèmes de liquidité qui varient selon le temps au sein d'un environnement de marché incomplet. Nous proposons un modèle d'équilibre général avec deux agents: un entrepreneur et un investisseur externe. Seul l'investisseur a besoin de connaitre le véritable état de l'entreprise, par conséquent, les informations de paiement coutent de l'argent. La nouveauté est que l'acquisition de l'information coute plus cher durant les mauvaises périodes que durant les bonnes périodes, comme cela a été confirmé par de précédentes expériences. Lorsque la récession comamence, l'apprentissage coûteux fait augmenter les primes de liquidité causant un problème d'évaporation de liquidité, comme cela a été aussi confirmé par de précédentes expériences.
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The t(8;21) chromosomal translocation activates aberrant expression of the AML1-ETO (AE) fusion protein and is commonly associated with core binding factor acute myeloid leukaemia (CBF AML). Combining a conditional mouse model that closely resembles the slow evolution and the mosaic AE expression pattern of human t(8;21) CBF AML with global transcriptome sequencing, we find that disease progression was characterized by two principal pathogenic mechanisms. Initially, AE expression modified the lineage potential of haematopoietic stem cells (HSCs), resulting in the selective expansion of the myeloid compartment at the expense of normal erythro- and lymphopoiesis. This lineage skewing was followed by a second substantial rewiring of transcriptional networks occurring in the trajectory to manifest leukaemia. We also find that both HSC and lineage-restricted granulocyte macrophage progenitors (GMPs) acquired leukaemic stem cell (LSC) potential being capable of initiating and maintaining the disease. Finally, our data demonstrate that long-term expression of AE induces an indolent myeloproliferative disease (MPD)-like myeloid leukaemia phenotype with complete penetrance and that acute inactivation of AE function is a potential novel therapeutic option.
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Crizotinib is a first-in-class oral anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) inhibitor targeting ALK-rearranged non-small-cell lung cancer. The therapy was approved by the US FDA in August 2011 and received conditional marketing approval by the European Commission in October 2012 for advanced non-small-cell lung cancer. A break-apart FISH-based assay was jointly approved with crizotinib by the FDA. This assay and an immunohistochemistry assay that uses a D5F3 rabbit monoclonal primary antibody were also approved for marketing in Europe in October 2012. While ALK rearrangement has relatively low prevalence, a clinical benefit is exhibited in more than 85% of patients with median progression-free survival of 8-10 months. In this article, the authors summarize the therapy and alternative test strategies for identifying patients who are likely to respond to therapy, including key issues for effective and efficient testing. The key economic considerations regarding the joint companion diagnostic and therapy are also presented. Given the observed clinical benefit and relatively high cost of crizotinib therapy, companion diagnostics should be evaluated relative to response to therapy versus correlation alone whenever possible, and both high inter-rater reliability and external quality assessment programs are warranted.
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Methods like Event History Analysis can show the existence of diffusion and part of its nature, but do not study the process itself. Nowadays, thanks to the increasing performance of computers, processes can be studied using computational modeling. This thesis presents an agent-based model of policy diffusion mainly inspired from the model developed by Braun and Gilardi (2006). I first start by developing a theoretical framework of policy diffusion that presents the main internal drivers of policy diffusion - such as the preference for the policy, the effectiveness of the policy, the institutional constraints, and the ideology - and its main mechanisms, namely learning, competition, emulation, and coercion. Therefore diffusion, expressed by these interdependencies, is a complex process that needs to be studied with computational agent-based modeling. In a second step, computational agent-based modeling is defined along with its most significant concepts: complexity and emergence. Using computational agent-based modeling implies the development of an algorithm and its programming. When this latter has been developed, we let the different agents interact. Consequently, a phenomenon of diffusion, derived from learning, emerges, meaning that the choice made by an agent is conditional to that made by its neighbors. As a result, learning follows an inverted S-curve, which leads to partial convergence - global divergence and local convergence - that triggers the emergence of political clusters; i.e. the creation of regions with the same policy. Furthermore, the average effectiveness in this computational world tends to follow a J-shaped curve, meaning that not only time is needed for a policy to deploy its effects, but that it also takes time for a country to find the best-suited policy. To conclude, diffusion is an emergent phenomenon from complex interactions and its outcomes as ensued from my model are in line with the theoretical expectations and the empirical evidence.Les méthodes d'analyse de biographie (event history analysis) permettent de mettre en évidence l'existence de phénomènes de diffusion et de les décrire, mais ne permettent pas d'en étudier le processus. Les simulations informatiques, grâce aux performances croissantes des ordinateurs, rendent possible l'étude des processus en tant que tels. Cette thèse, basée sur le modèle théorique développé par Braun et Gilardi (2006), présente une simulation centrée sur les agents des phénomènes de diffusion des politiques. Le point de départ de ce travail met en lumière, au niveau théorique, les principaux facteurs de changement internes à un pays : la préférence pour une politique donnée, l'efficacité de cette dernière, les contraintes institutionnelles, l'idéologie, et les principaux mécanismes de diffusion que sont l'apprentissage, la compétition, l'émulation et la coercition. La diffusion, définie par l'interdépendance des différents acteurs, est un système complexe dont l'étude est rendue possible par les simulations centrées sur les agents. Au niveau méthodologique, nous présenterons également les principaux concepts sous-jacents aux simulations, notamment la complexité et l'émergence. De plus, l'utilisation de simulations informatiques implique le développement d'un algorithme et sa programmation. Cette dernière réalisée, les agents peuvent interagir, avec comme résultat l'émergence d'un phénomène de diffusion, dérivé de l'apprentissage, où le choix d'un agent dépend en grande partie de ceux faits par ses voisins. De plus, ce phénomène suit une courbe en S caractéristique, poussant à la création de régions politiquement identiques, mais divergentes au niveau globale. Enfin, l'efficacité moyenne, dans ce monde simulé, suit une courbe en J, ce qui signifie qu'il faut du temps, non seulement pour que la politique montre ses effets, mais également pour qu'un pays introduise la politique la plus efficace. En conclusion, la diffusion est un phénomène émergent résultant d'interactions complexes dont les résultats du processus tel que développé dans ce modèle correspondent tant aux attentes théoriques qu'aux résultats pratiques.
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We extend PML theory to account for information on the conditional moments up to order four, but without assuming a parametric model, to avoid a risk of misspecification of the conditional distribution. The key statistical tool is the quartic exponential family, which allows us to generalize the PML2 and QGPML1 methods proposed in Gourieroux et al. (1984) to PML4 and QGPML2 methods, respectively. An asymptotic theory is developed. The key numerical tool that we use is the Gauss-Freud integration scheme that solves a computational problem that has previously been raised in several fields. Simulation exercises demonstrate the feasibility and robustness of the methods [Authors]
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Background: The imatinib trough plasma concentration (C(min)) correlates with clinical response in cancer patients. Therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) of plasma C(min) is therefore suggested. In practice, however, blood sampling for TDM is often not performed at trough. The corresponding measurement is thus only remotely informative about C(min) exposure. Objectives: The objectives of this study were to improve the interpretation of randomly measured concentrations by using a Bayesian approach for the prediction of C(min), incorporating correlation between pharmacokinetic parameters, and to compare the predictive performance of this method with alternative approaches, by comparing predictions with actual measured trough levels, and with predictions obtained by a reference method, respectively. Methods: A Bayesian maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation method accounting for correlation (MAP-ρ) between pharmacokinetic parameters was developed on the basis of a population pharmacokinetic model, which was validated on external data. Thirty-one paired random and trough levels, observed in gastrointestinal stromal tumour patients, were then used for the evaluation of the Bayesian MAP-ρ method: individual C(min) predictions, derived from single random observations, were compared with actual measured trough levels for assessment of predictive performance (accuracy and precision). The method was also compared with alternative approaches: classical Bayesian MAP estimation assuming uncorrelated pharmacokinetic parameters, linear extrapolation along the typical elimination constant of imatinib, and non-linear mixed-effects modelling (NONMEM) first-order conditional estimation (FOCE) with interaction. Predictions of all methods were finally compared with 'best-possible' predictions obtained by a reference method (NONMEM FOCE, using both random and trough observations for individual C(min) prediction). Results: The developed Bayesian MAP-ρ method accounting for correlation between pharmacokinetic parameters allowed non-biased prediction of imatinib C(min) with a precision of ±30.7%. This predictive performance was similar for the alternative methods that were applied. The range of relative prediction errors was, however, smallest for the Bayesian MAP-ρ method and largest for the linear extrapolation method. When compared with the reference method, predictive performance was comparable for all methods. The time interval between random and trough sampling did not influence the precision of Bayesian MAP-ρ predictions. Conclusion: Clinical interpretation of randomly measured imatinib plasma concentrations can be assisted by Bayesian TDM. Classical Bayesian MAP estimation can be applied even without consideration of the correlation between pharmacokinetic parameters. Individual C(min) predictions are expected to vary less through Bayesian TDM than linear extrapolation. Bayesian TDM could be developed in the future for other targeted anticancer drugs and for the prediction of other pharmacokinetic parameters that have been correlated with clinical outcomes.
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Electromagnetic fields arising from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) can cause various clinically relevant functional disturbances in patients with cardiac pacemakers. Consequently, an implanted pacemaker is generally considered a contraindication for an MRI scan. With approximately 60 million MRI scans performed worldwide per year, MRI may be indicated for an estimated majority of pacemaker patients during the lifetime of their pacemakers. The availability of MR conditional pacemakers with CE labelling is of particular advantage since they allow the safe use of pacemakers in MRI. In this article the current state of knowledge on pacemakers and MR imaging is discussed. We present the results of a survey conducted among Swiss radiologists to assess current practice in patients with pacemakers.
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Activated CD8 T cells develop cytotoxicity against autologous cells bearing foreign Ags and self/tumor Ags. However, self-specific cytolysis needs to be kept under control to avoid overwhelming immunopathology. After peptide vaccination of melanoma patients, we studied molecular and functional properties of T cell subsets specific for the self/tumor Ag Melan-A/MART-1. Ex vivo analysis revealed three Ag-specific effector memory (EM) populations, as follows: CD28-negative EM (EM28(-)) T cells strongly expressing granzyme/perforin, and two EM28(+) subsets, one with high and the other with low level expression of these cytotoxic proteins. For further functional characterization, we generated 117 stable CD8 T cell clones by ex vivo flow cytometry-based sorting of these subsets. All EM28(-)-derived clones lysed target cells with high efficacy. In contrast, EM28(+)-derived clones were heterogenous, and could be classified in two groups, one with high and the other with low killing capacity, correlating with granzyme/perforin expression. High and low killer phenotypes remained surprisingly stable for several months. However, strongly increased granzyme expression and cytotoxicity were observed after exposure to IL-12. Thus, the data reveal a newly identified subset of CD28(+) conditional killer T cells. Because CD28 can mediate strong costimulatory signals, tight cytotoxicity control, as shown in this study through IL-12, may be particularly important for subsets of T cells expressing CD28.
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Signal transducer and activator of transcription (STAT) 3 is a pleiotropic transcription factor with important functions in cytokine signaling in a variety of tissues. However, the role of STAT3 in the intestinal epithelium is not well understood. We demonstrate that development of colonic inflammation is associated with the induction of STAT3 activity in intestinal epithelial cells (IECs). Studies in genetically engineered mice showed that epithelial STAT3 activation in dextran sodium sulfate colitis is dependent on interleukin (IL)-22 rather than IL-6. IL-22 was secreted by colonic CD11c(+) cells in response to Toll-like receptor stimulation. Conditional knockout mice with an IEC-specific deletion of STAT3 activity were highly susceptible to experimental colitis, indicating that epithelial STAT3 regulates gut homeostasis. STAT3(IEC-KO) mice, upon induction of colitis, showed a striking defect of epithelial restitution. Gene chip analysis indicated that STAT3 regulates the cellular stress response, apoptosis, and pathways associated with wound healing in IECs. Consistently, both IL-22 and epithelial STAT3 were found to be important in wound-healing experiments in vivo. In summary, our data suggest that intestinal epithelial STAT3 activation regulates immune homeostasis in the gut by promoting IL-22-dependent mucosal wound healing.
Resumo:
Cette thèse s'intéresse à étudier les propriétés extrémales de certains modèles de risque d'intérêt dans diverses applications de l'assurance, de la finance et des statistiques. Cette thèse se développe selon deux axes principaux, à savoir: Dans la première partie, nous nous concentrons sur deux modèles de risques univariés, c'est-à- dire, un modèle de risque de déflation et un modèle de risque de réassurance. Nous étudions le développement des queues de distribution sous certaines conditions des risques commun¬s. Les principaux résultats sont ainsi illustrés par des exemples typiques et des simulations numériques. Enfin, les résultats sont appliqués aux domaines des assurances, par exemple, les approximations de Value-at-Risk, d'espérance conditionnelle unilatérale etc. La deuxième partie de cette thèse est consacrée à trois modèles à deux variables: Le premier modèle concerne la censure à deux variables des événements extrême. Pour ce modèle, nous proposons tout d'abord une classe d'estimateurs pour les coefficients de dépendance et la probabilité des queues de distributions. Ces estimateurs sont flexibles en raison d'un paramètre de réglage. Leurs distributions asymptotiques sont obtenues sous certaines condi¬tions lentes bivariées de second ordre. Ensuite, nous donnons quelques exemples et présentons une petite étude de simulations de Monte Carlo, suivie par une application sur un ensemble de données réelles d'assurance. L'objectif de notre deuxième modèle de risque à deux variables est l'étude de coefficients de dépendance des queues de distributions obliques et asymétriques à deux variables. Ces distri¬butions obliques et asymétriques sont largement utiles dans les applications statistiques. Elles sont générées principalement par le mélange moyenne-variance de lois normales et le mélange de lois normales asymétriques d'échelles, qui distinguent la structure de dépendance de queue comme indiqué par nos principaux résultats. Le troisième modèle de risque à deux variables concerne le rapprochement des maxima de séries triangulaires elliptiques obliques. Les résultats théoriques sont fondés sur certaines hypothèses concernant le périmètre aléatoire sous-jacent des queues de distributions. -- This thesis aims to investigate the extremal properties of certain risk models of interest in vari¬ous applications from insurance, finance and statistics. This thesis develops along two principal lines, namely: In the first part, we focus on two univariate risk models, i.e., deflated risk and reinsurance risk models. Therein we investigate their tail expansions under certain tail conditions of the common risks. Our main results are illustrated by some typical examples and numerical simu¬lations as well. Finally, the findings are formulated into some applications in insurance fields, for instance, the approximations of Value-at-Risk, conditional tail expectations etc. The second part of this thesis is devoted to the following three bivariate models: The first model is concerned with bivariate censoring of extreme events. For this model, we first propose a class of estimators for both tail dependence coefficient and tail probability. These estimators are flexible due to a tuning parameter and their asymptotic distributions are obtained under some second order bivariate slowly varying conditions of the model. Then, we give some examples and present a small Monte Carlo simulation study followed by an application on a real-data set from insurance. The objective of our second bivariate risk model is the investigation of tail dependence coefficient of bivariate skew slash distributions. Such skew slash distributions are extensively useful in statistical applications and they are generated mainly by normal mean-variance mixture and scaled skew-normal mixture, which distinguish the tail dependence structure as shown by our principle results. The third bivariate risk model is concerned with the approximation of the component-wise maxima of skew elliptical triangular arrays. The theoretical results are based on certain tail assumptions on the underlying random radius.
Resumo:
AIMS: To investigate empirically the hypothesized relationship between counsellor motivational interviewing (MI) skills and patient change talk (CT) by analysing the articulation between counsellor behaviours and patient language during brief motivational interventions (BMI) addressing at-risk alcohol consumption. DESIGN: Sequential analysis of psycholinguistic codes obtained by two independent raters using the Motivational Interviewing Skill Code (MISC), version 2.0. SETTING: Secondary analysis of data from a randomized controlled trial evaluating the effectiveness of BMI in an emergency department. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 97 patients tape-recorded when receiving BMI. MEASUREMENTS: MISC variables were categorized into three counsellor behaviours (MI-consistent, MI-inconsistent and 'other') and three kinds of patient language (CT, counter-CT (CCT) and utterances not linked with the alcohol topic). Observed transition frequencies, conditional probabilities and significance levels based on odds ratios were computed using sequential analysis software. FINDINGS: MI-consistent behaviours were the only counsellor behaviours that were significantly more likely to be followed by patient CT. Those behaviours were significantly more likely to be followed by patient change exploration (CT and CCT) while MI-inconsistent behaviours and 'other' counsellor behaviours were significantly more likely to be followed by utterances not linked with the alcohol topic and significantly less likely to be followed by CT. MI-consistent behaviours were more likely after change exploration, whereas 'other' counsellor behaviours were more likely only after utterances not linked with the alcohol topic. CONCLUSIONS: Findings lend support to the hypothesized relationship between MI-consistent behaviours and CT, highlight the importance of patient influence on counsellor behaviour and emphasize the usefulness of MI techniques and spirit during brief interventions targeting change enhancement.